The Astros and Blue Jays began this month with a four game series in Houston that produced a total of just 15 runs for the two teams, but a bumper crop of 105 strikeouts. The latter figure and Toronto’s share (61 whiffs) are both reported to be records for a four game series. Despite all the swings and misses, Toronto took the set 3 games to 1, outscoring Houston 10-5, with seven of those ten runs coming off solo home runs.

That series is an extreme example but an instructive one on the growing trend in baseball of games dominated by home runs and strikeouts, two of the “three true outcomes” or TTOs (the third is walks), so named because the defense can do nothing to affect the results of those events.

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The Texas Rangers, leaders in the AL West, have posted a sparkling 19-7 (.731) record in one-run games this season, reminiscent of the Orioles’ record-breaking 29-9 (.763) mark in that situation in 2012. Barely missing the ALCS last season, could the Rangers be poised to take that next step this year? I’ll take a look at that question after the jump.

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Baseball-Reference‘s Play Index shows games since 1930 with starting pitchers batting in most batting order positions but most commonly, of course, in the number 9 hole. Next most common, by far, is batting the pitcher eighth, a tactic which has become more popular in recent years, exceeding 10% of team games this season and last. That is a huge departure from past practice as, other than in the mid-1950s and in 1998, there were virtually no such games before 2007. The question then is why has batting your pitcher eighth now come somewhat into vogue?

You can weigh in on this question after the jump.

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Ichiro Suzuki

HHS reader JDV noted that Indians’ shortstop Francisco Lindor had recently played the 162nd game of his career and had recorded 198 hits over that first full season equivalent. That seemed like an interesting idea for a post, so I’ll look more at that question after the jump.

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On behalf of High Heat Stats, I contributed a piece to the May 11-17 issue of USA Today Sports Weekly. This one is all about extra innings: why they have become more common in recent years and how managerial decisions play such a major role in determining extra-inning winners.

Here is the link to the column. And remember that HHS appears in the magazine every week this season! Stay tuned for future links or consider picking up a print copy.

There’s more High Heat Stats analysis in the April 27-May 3 issue of USA Today Sports Weekly, this time from Aidan Jackson-Evans. He uses Baseball Info Solutions data to explain how a batter’s plate discipline can affect his overall production by complementing/conflicting with his skill set, selecting real-life examples from the Minnesota Twins lineup.

Here is the link to the column. High Heat Stats is contributing to the magazine every week this season, so stay tuned for future links or consider picking up a print copy.

For the April 20-26 issue of USA Today Sports Weekly, Andy analyzed league-wide stats after each team’s first 10 games of the 2016 season. He explains what has made this year unique and how playing style continues to evolve.

Here is the link to the column. High Heat Stats is contributing to the magazine every week this season, so stay tuned for future links or consider picking up a print copy.

Here’s a relatively simple plot showing the percentage of all 18,690 MLB players in history to hit “X” home runs. In other words, about 33% of all players hit at least 1 homer, about 29% hit at least 2 homers, etc. Some other key numbers: 19% hit at least 10, 4.4% hit at least 100, and 0.16% have hit at least 500.

It’s unsurprising that the curve is linear for the middle section–with around 3,000 players to hit 10+ homers, we see a smooth and expected distribution with so many data points. I assume the lower end of the curve at 1 and 2 homers falls off because there is an unusually high number of players to hit very few homers. This includes lots of pitchers and other players who had only a cup of coffee and managed only a dinger or two. The high end of the curve fails to fall off linearly I assume because players who hit a fair number of homers tend to be the ones who are selected to stick around in MLB and therefore hit even more. The hitting of homers isn’t simply a random event distributed over the entire population–certain players are selected to remain in MLB, and the longer a guy sticks around, the more likely it is that he hits homers at an above-average pace.