Author Archives: Doug

Lightning in a bottle – baseball’s one-year wonders

In 2011, Blue Jays’ starter Ricky Romero had a breakout season with 6.2 WAR and an All-Star selection, but this year … not so much. Perhaps, another in baseball’s rich history of players who suddenly shine brightly on the biggest stage, then just as quickly fade away, never again to approach that brief flirtation with stardom?

You’ve probably heard that sentiment expressed in various ways and, perhaps, without thinking a great deal about it, presumed there was some measure of truth to it. Well, I’m here to tell you – it ain’t necessarily so. In fact, the true one-year wonder may indeed be about as likely as catching lightning in a bottle.

After the jump, I’ll look more closely at the one-year wonder phenomenon (or non-phenomenon). If you’re like me, I suspect you may be surprised.

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Déjà vu – all over again

As has already been remarked upon, the rookie seasons of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are reminding a lot of people of earlier rookie seasons way back in 1951 by two players who would become first ballot HOFers. The similarities include the players being the same ages, playing the same positions, and being in different leagues. Potentially, Trout and Harper could face each other in the post season, as happened with the earlier pair in 1951.

After the jump, I’ll look more at the similarities, and differences, in these pairs of players 61 seasons removed from each other.

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Quiz – full of sound and fury, signifying nothing

Much has been written this season about the exploits of Adam Dunn. But, until now (and with apologies to William Shakespeare), probably not this.

Dunn is among a short list of players with a peculiar “accomplishment”. Though all have played only in the expansion era, these are the only players to make this list among all players to have played their entire careers since 1901.

The quiz has been solved. Congratulations to Richard Chester! He identified that these players all have careers of 5000 PAs or more with career OPS+ of 125, yet career WAR of only 25 or less (or a 5:1 or worse OPS+ to WAR ratio). Thus, despite good offensive numbers, these players’ WAR scores are reduced dramatically due to poor defense.

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King Felix wears the crown of perfection

Mariners’ ace Felix Hernandez collected his and the team’s first-ever perfecto, fanning 12 Rays in a 1-0 victory, as Seattle took the rubber match of a 3-game set with Tampa Bay. The key defensive play came on the first hitter of the game as Eric Thames tracked down a Sam Fuld drive on the warning track in the right-center field gap.

For Hernandez, the game also marked his first no-hitter after a one-hitter in 2007 and four previous two-hitters, most recently against the Yankees two starts ago on August 4th. Hernandez continues his recent hot streak with his 5th straight start allowing 5 hits or less over 7 innings or more, the longest such streak in MLB this season.

It was the third time this season the Mariners have been involved in a no-hit game, the previous times being on the losing end of Philip Humber‘s April 21st perfect game for the White Sox, and a Mariners’ team no-hitter against the Dodgers on June 8th. Seattle is the first team with two no-hit games in the same regular season since the Angels in 1973 (Nolan Ryan twice) and the Cubs in 1972 (Burt Hooton and Milt Pappas). Roy Halladay, of course, had a regular season perfect game and a post-season no-hitter for the Phillies in 2010.

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Pitching reliability – an honest day’s work

Quick – have you had a bad day at work this year? Pretty silly question, right. Well, if you’re among a select group of pitchers, maybe it’s not such a silly question. I’m talking about guys who deliver an honest day’s work almost every time they pitch and almost never have an “off day”.

As of this writing, there are still 5 pitchers this year who have put in a honest day’s work (HDW) every time they’ve pitched, and one (Ivan Nova) who had his streak snapped with his most recent outing earlier this week. After the jump, I’ll look more at the most reliable performers among major league pitchers.

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Cliff Lee’s not so excellent adventure

Cliff Lee of the Phillies is having one weird season. As of this writing, Lee is sporting a 2-6 W-L record after 19 starts, with rate stats comparable to his career averages.

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
2012 33 PHI NL 2 6 .250 3.73 108 1.181 8.9 1.1 1.7 8.5 4.96
11 Yrs 121 75 .617 3.65 116 1.220 8.9 0.9 2.1 7.3 3.47
162 Game Avg. 15 9 .617 3.65 116 1.220 8.9 0.9 2.1 7.3 3.47
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/4/2012.

So, what’s so unusual? I’ll take a look after the jump.

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Lots of hits, but where are the RBI?

Thanks to regular poster Richard Chester for contributing this article and analysis. Richard is a long-time Yankees follower with many stories to tell of days at the Stadium.

Derek Jeter has been piling on the hits this year and attention has been focused on his climb up the ladder of the lifetime hits leader board. Not often observed is his relatively low RBI total, even for a leadoff hitter. As of the date of this writing, 8/2/2012, he is projected to accumulate  213 hits and 50 RBIs. This would out him into a not-so-desirable club of players with 200 or more hits and no more than 50 RBIs.

After the jump, I’ll look some more at this unusual “club”.

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