Author Archives: Doug

Saturday AL Summary

A quick rundown of games from today’s AL action involving the leading teams.

Tigers 5, White Sox 1 – Detroit closed to within a game of the AL Central-leading White Sox behind Max Scherzer‘s 9 strikeouts and only one walk over eight scoreless innings. It was Scherzer’s 15th win, matching his career high from last season. Since August 15th, Scherzer has four straight starts of 7 innings or more allowing 1 run or less.

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NL winner-take-all games

Following up from yesterday’s <a href=”http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/08/al-winner-take-all-games-and-the-new-wild-card-format/”>post</a> on AL winner-take-all games, here is the NL summary.

As mentioned in the earlier post, this is a remembrance of the very rare regular season winner-take-all game, before we see these games every year in the wild card playoff game (technically a post-season game, but likely to feel like a one-game playoff to qualify for the real post-season).

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As a reminder, for a winner-take-all game, I’m talking about regular season playoff games or final day of the season games where both teams can make the playoffs with a win, or miss the playoffs with a loss.

<span style=”text-decoration: underline;”><strong>National League</strong></span>

<strong>1.</strong> As in the AL, there was a close 3-way NL race in 1908 involving the Cubs, Pirates and Giants. After the scheduled games concluded, the Cubs won a make-up game with the Pirates to move a half-game ahead of the Bucs, whose season was now complete. Then, the Giants won three (apparently) make-up games with the Braves to tie the Cubs (and eliminate the Pirates), forcing completion of a final make-up game between New York and Chicago. The Cubs won 4-2 to complete their comeback, erasing the Giants’ 4.5 game lead on Sep 18 with a 14-2 finish while the Giants could manage only an 11-10 mark over the same period. Of course, the reason the Giants had to play that make-up game was because of a tie game between the clubs back on Sep 23rd. That game was called a draw on account of darkness, mainly because of a very long delay occasioned by tremendous confusion attending a certain play in the 9th inning of that contest. It was, indeed, the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/merklfr01.shtml”>Fred Merkle</a> <a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merkle’s_Boner”>game</a>.

<strong>2.</strong> It was 1951 before the next winner-take-all <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NY1/NY1195110030.shtml”>game</a> occurred. Brooklyn, up 3 games on Sep 23rd, saw that lead evaporate with a 3-4 finish while the Giants ran off 7 straight wins to finish in a tie.  After splitting the first two games of a 3-game playoff, Brooklyn took a 4-1 lead into the 9th inning of game 3. But, starter <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/newcodo01.shtml”>Don Newcombe</a>, valiantly pitching in his 32nd inning of work in the space of only 8 days, finally ran out of gas, allowing a run-scoring double before leaving the game with one out and the tying runs in scoring position. Two pitches later, <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brancra01.shtml”>Ralph Branca</a> gave up perhaps the most famous home run ever, <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomsbo01.shtml”>Bobby Thomson</a>’s shot down the very short left-field line at the Polo Grounds.

<strong>3.</strong> The Dodgers and Giants again provided the drama in 1962, but this time on the left coast. As in 1951, the Dodgers looked to be home and dry with a 4 game lead on Sep 23rd and only 7 games remaining, 6 of them in their shiny new home at Chavez Ravine. But, a 1-6 collapse teamed with a 5-2 Giants’ finish spelled another 3-game playoff. In <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN196210010.shtml”>game 1</a>, the Giants shocked the visitors with an 8-0 whitewash of Dodger ace <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml”>Sandy Koufax</a>, who was replaced after only 7 batters. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml”>Game 2</a> was an epic struggle lasting 4 hours 18 minutes, setting a record for a 9-inning game that would stand for over 30 years. The Giants used 8 pitchers, tying the then record for a nine-inning game (excepting a stunt <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLA/SLA194910021.shtml”>game</a> by Bill Veeck’s Browns, when a different pitcher was used each inning), before the Dodgers prevailed 8-7 on a walk-off <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fairlro01.shtml”>Ron Fairly</a> sac fly to score <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willsma01.shtml”>Maury Wills</a>, then completing his record-setting 104 stolen base campaign. In the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN196210030.shtml”>finale</a>, as they had done 11 years before, the Dodgers took a multi-run lead into the 9th inning and again failed to hold it as the Giants parlayed 2 singles, 4 walks and an error into 4 runs and the lead. The Dodgers went meekly in order in the home 9th against game 1 CG winner <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piercbi02.shtml”>Billy Pierce</a>, appearing in relief.

<strong>4.</strong> In 1980, both NL divisions went down to the final weekend and both with the protagonists playing each other. In the East, Philadelphia clinched on the 2nd last day against Montreal. In the West, the Astros took a 3-game lead into their final series against the Dodgers in LA, only to be swept and finish tied with the boys in blue. The Dodgers won the coin toss so the teams stayed put for a one-game <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN198010060.shtml”>playoff</a> at Chavez. Having gone with their best pitchers to force the playoff, the Dodgers had no better option than journeyman <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goltzda01.shtml”>Dave Goltz</a>, who proved no match for Astros ace <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niekrjo01.shtml”>Joe Niekro</a>, logging his 20th win in an easy 7-1 CG triumph.

<strong>5.</strong> In 1996, the NL West race went down to the final weekend with the Padres visiting the Dodgers and needing a sweep to overcome a 2 game deficit. After San Diego won the first two to draw even with LA, the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN199609290.shtml”>finale</a> saw the two teams locked in a scoreless draw through 10 innings. In the 11th, singles by <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/finlest01.shtml”>Steve Finley</a> and <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/caminke01.shtml”>Ken Caminiti</a> put Padres on the corners with nobody out. Former Dodger <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnch01.shtml”>Chris Gwynn</a> (playing alongside brother <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnto01.shtml”>Tony</a> in their only season together) came up next to pinch-hit against <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkch01.shtml”>Chan Ho Park</a> and delivered a bases-clearing double to the right field gap, the last (and, very likely, the biggest) regular season hit of his career. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmtr01.shtml”>Trevor Hoffman</a> got the Dodgers in order in the home 11th to complete the series sweep.

<strong>6.</strong> In 1998, the Cubs and Giants finished tied for the NL wild card berth, forcing a one-game playoff to make the post-season. The Mets were also in the hunt, finishing just a game behind. Unusually, none of these teams were in the hunt for their respective division titles, so it was strictly a race for that one wild card spot. After play on Sep 20th, it looked to be a two team race between the Mets (88-69) and Cubs (87-70) with the Giants (83-72) seemingly out of it. But, 6 straight wins by San Francisco while the Mets went 0-4 and the Cubs 2-2 left the Cubs and Giants tied and the Mets a game back going into the last day. The Braves’ <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/maddugr01.shtml”>Greg Maddux</a> then dispatched the Mets in a 7-2 <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199809270.shtml”>romp</a>, while the Cubs and Giants narrowly lost walk-off games to the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU199809270.shtml”>Astros</a> and <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL199809270.shtml”>Rockies</a>, respectively. In the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199809280.shtml”>playoff</a>, the Cubs took a 5 run lead into the 9th inning and then held on as the Giants made it interesting. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beckro01.shtml”>Rod Beck</a> (playing for the Cubs, not the Giants) came on to claim the save, retiring <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartejo01.shtml”>Joe Carter</a> in his final major league AB.

Like Boston in the AL, the winner-take-all game has been the true nemesis for the Dodgers.

So, until the wild card game a month from now, that’s it for the NL winner-take-all contests. Maybe I’ll grow to like the one game wild card playoff, but I hope not.

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AL winner-take-all games and the new wild card format

As we approach the home stretch before this year’s playoffs, the oddity that is the new wild card system looms. To determine the final entrant in the real playoff tournament, fans are now guaranteed two winner-take-all games every year to separate the real wild card entrant from the pretender. Reminds me of the bizarre special fan vote to determine the last man on the All-Star roster.

Though this wild card qualifier will officially be a post-season game, it really feels more like a playoff game added on to the regular season. So, in tribute to the real regular season winner-take-all games, here’s a remembrance of what once were pretty rare occurrences but now will be happening every year.

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Adam Dunn, meet David Letterman

Adam Dunn’s most unusual season is an endless source of quirky statistical curiosities. Dunn launched two more bombs Friday night for a total of 38, with over five weeks still left in the season. Forty is obviously in sight, and fifty long balls is not out of the question. Yet our hero’s batting average remains precariously close to the Mendoza line.

After the jump, I’ll look at Adam’s season in context, using David Letterman’s famous statistical analysis tool, the Top 10 list.

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Angels 14, Red Sox 13 – a game for our times

Thursday’s wild and woolly game at Fenway caught my attention for any number of reasons. Of course, it was an extreme game, but interesting for how it illustrates a lot of the traits and trends that mark baseball of the present day.

I’ll let you absorb the line score, then talk a bit more about the game (or even go on a bit of a rant) after the jump.

                1  2  3   4  5  6   7  8  9  10    R H E
                -  -  -   -  -  -   -  -  -   -    -  - -
Angels          0  0  8   0  0  0   1  0  3   2 ..14 20 1
Red Sox         1  5  0   0  1  2   0  2  1   1 ..13 18 2

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Quiz – “We’ll root, root, root for the home team”

Most of our quizzes are about unusual exploits of groups of players. This one is a bit different.

After the jump you’ll find lists of specific teams and seasons. There is something that all of these teams have in common. Your task is simple – find that common link.

Congratulations (again) to Richard Chester! He identified that in the years indicated for each franchise, that year’s team had the greatest number of players on its roster born in the team’s state (in the case of Toronto and Montreal, born in Canada). For ties, the year indicated is the most recent.

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Lightning in a bottle – baseball’s one-year wonders

In 2011, Blue Jays’ starter Ricky Romero had a breakout season with 6.2 WAR and an All-Star selection, but this year … not so much. Perhaps, another in baseball’s rich history of players who suddenly shine brightly on the biggest stage, then just as quickly fade away, never again to approach that brief flirtation with stardom?

You’ve probably heard that sentiment expressed in various ways and, perhaps, without thinking a great deal about it, presumed there was some measure of truth to it. Well, I’m here to tell you – it ain’t necessarily so. In fact, the true one-year wonder may indeed be about as likely as catching lightning in a bottle.

After the jump, I’ll look more closely at the one-year wonder phenomenon (or non-phenomenon). If you’re like me, I suspect you may be surprised.

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Déjà vu – all over again

As has already been remarked upon, the rookie seasons of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are reminding a lot of people of earlier rookie seasons way back in 1951 by two players who would become first ballot HOFers. The similarities include the players being the same ages, playing the same positions, and being in different leagues. Potentially, Trout and Harper could face each other in the post season, as happened with the earlier pair in 1951.

After the jump, I’ll look more at the similarities, and differences, in these pairs of players 61 seasons removed from each other.

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Quiz – full of sound and fury, signifying nothing

Much has been written this season about the exploits of Adam Dunn. But, until now (and with apologies to William Shakespeare), probably not this.

Dunn is among a short list of players with a peculiar “accomplishment”. Though all have played only in the expansion era, these are the only players to make this list among all players to have played their entire careers since 1901.

The quiz has been solved. Congratulations to Richard Chester! He identified that these players all have careers of 5000 PAs or more with career OPS+ of 125, yet career WAR of only 25 or less (or a 5:1 or worse OPS+ to WAR ratio). Thus, despite good offensive numbers, these players’ WAR scores are reduced dramatically due to poor defense.

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King Felix wears the crown of perfection

Mariners’ ace Felix Hernandez collected his and the team’s first-ever perfecto, fanning 12 Rays in a 1-0 victory, as Seattle took the rubber match of a 3-game set with Tampa Bay. The key defensive play came on the first hitter of the game as Eric Thames tracked down a Sam Fuld drive on the warning track in the right-center field gap.

For Hernandez, the game also marked his first no-hitter after a one-hitter in 2007 and four previous two-hitters, most recently against the Yankees two starts ago on August 4th. Hernandez continues his recent hot streak with his 5th straight start allowing 5 hits or less over 7 innings or more, the longest such streak in MLB this season.

It was the third time this season the Mariners have been involved in a no-hit game, the previous times being on the losing end of Philip Humber‘s April 21st perfect game for the White Sox, and a Mariners’ team no-hitter against the Dodgers on June 8th. Seattle is the first team with two no-hit games in the same regular season since the Angels in 1973 (Nolan Ryan twice) and the Cubs in 1972 (Burt Hooton and Milt Pappas). Roy Halladay, of course, had a regular season perfect game and a post-season no-hitter for the Phillies in 2010.

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