Author Archives: Doug

Home away from home OR the road trip from hell

In his Game Notes for April 3rd games, John Autin identified that Michael Brantley had reached based 7 of 9 times in the first two games of the Indians’ series in Toronto. Turns out it wasn’t the first time Brantley has found Rogers Centre to his liking – in fact, he has been a Blue Jay killer just about every game he’s played there.

After the jump, more on players who really take a shine to some ballparks, and also those who would prefer to miss trips to certain cities.
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Free agency and the Yankees “formula” for success

As of the end of the 2012 season, there were 200 hitters since 1901 with a career bWAR score of 43 or higher, and 98 pitchers at or above the same WAR level for the same period. Of those 298 players, eight were featured on the roster of the 2012 Yankees, the 11th straight year the Yankees have led the major leagues in having the most such players on one team. In fact, the fewest such players the Yankees have featured in any of those 11 years is 6 in 2011, a figure exceeded in the period only by the 2004 Astros (and, of course, the other 10 Yankee clubs).

One would expect teams to do well when stocked with high career WAR players (or players who will go on to accumulate high career WAR). After all, such players must be doing something right and will probably be a help to your ball club at just about any point in their careers (with the possible exception of the very beginning or very end of a career). Sure enough, the Yankees have been a perennial contender for the past 11 years but yet have recorded just one world championship, something of a drought by Yankee standards.

So, what’s gone wrong with the Yankees’ formula for success? More after the jump.

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Quiz – Love Conquers WAR (solved)

Below is a list of noteworthy players of the past half-century. Among all players to play their entire careers since 1961, what is the common trait shared only by these players?

Player Count HOF Teammates
Gaylord Perry 17 Willie Mays / Willie McCovey / Orlando Cepeda / Juan Marichal / Warren Spahn / Duke Snider / Dennis Eckersley / Frank Robinson / Bert Blyleven / Fergie Jenkins / Dave Winfield / Ozzie Smith / Rollie Fingers / Reggie Jackson / Rich Gossage / Phil Niekro / George Brett
Tony Perez 13 Frank Robinson / Johnny Bench / Joe Morgan / Gary Carter / Andre Dawson / Carl Yastrzemski / Jim Rice / Wade Boggs / Carlton Fisk / Dennis Eckersley / Mike Schmidt / Steve Carlton / Barry Larkin
Rich Gossage 12 Ron Santo / Willie Stargell / Dave Winfield / Reggie Jackson / Gaylord Perry / Catfish Hunter / Tony Gwynn / Ryne Sandberg / Andre Dawson / Rickey Henderson / Nolan Ryan / Dennis Eckersley
Dave Winfield 12 Ozzie Smith / Rollie Fingers / Gaylord Perry / Willie McCovey / Rickey Henderson / Reggie Jackson / Phil Niekro / Rich Gossage / Bert Blyleven / Roberto Alomar / Kirby Puckett / Eddie Murray
Steve Carlton 12 Lou Brock / Orlando Cepeda / Bob Gibson / Mike Schmidt / Joe Morgan / Tony Perez / Ryne Sandberg / Carlton Fisk / Tom Seaver / Phil Niekro / Kirby Puckett / Bert Blyleven
Dennis Eckersley 12 Frank Robinson / Gaylord Perry / Rickey Henderson / Carl Yastrzemski / Carlton Fisk / Wade Boggs / Tony Perez / Jim Rice / Ryne Sandberg / Rich Gossage / Ozzie Smith / Reggie Jackson
Don Sutton 12 Frank Robinson / Juan Marichal / Hoyt Wilhelm / Jim Bunning / Don Drysdale / Sandy Koufax / Nolan Ryan / Robin Yount / Paul Molitor / Rollie Fingers / Reggie Jackson / Rod Carew
Reggie Jackson 12 Rollie Fingers / Catfish Hunter / Billy Williams / Orlando Cepeda / Brooks Robinson / Jim Palmer / Dave Winfield / Rich Gossage / Gaylord Perry / Rod Carew / Don Sutton / Dennis Eckersley
Fergie Jenkins 11 Jim Bunning / Ron Santo / Billy Williams / Ernie Banks / Robin Roberts / Hoyt Wilhelm / Gaylord Perry / Carlton Fisk / Carl Yastrzemski / Jim Rice / Ryne Sandberg
Rollie Fingers 11 Reggie Jackson / Catfish Hunter / Billy Williams / Orlando Cepeda / Willie McCovey / Dave Winfield / Ozzie Smith / Gaylord Perry / Robin Yount / Paul Molitor / Don Sutton
Carlton Fisk 10 Carl Yastrzemski / Jim Rice / Juan Marichal / Orlando Cepeda / Luis Aparicio / Tony Perez / Dennis Eckersley / Fergie Jenkins / Tom Seaver / Steve Carlton
Joe Morgan 10 Nellie Fox / Eddie Mathews / Robin Roberts / Johnny Bench / Tony Perez / Tom Seaver / Nolan Ryan / Mike Schmidt / Steve Carlton / Rickey Henderson
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/11/2013.

Hint: the common trait is a career “accomplishment”.

Congratulations to Ed and Birtelcom! They teamed up to identify these players as the HOFers to player their entire careers since 1961 and who played with 10 or more other HOF teammates. Tops on this list is Gaylord Perry with 17 HOF teammates, approaching half of the 41 HOFers from this period.

Power pitchers: no longer the elite?

The true power pitcher has long been the province of the celebrated elite of the pitching fraternity. In its most elemental form, baseball is a competition between the batter and the pitcher, with every pitch a renewal of that contest. Long celebrated are those few pitchers who can, when most needed, blow the ball past the hitter to secure the key out. But those days may now be past.

In today’s baseball of K marks littering the scorecards of most ballgames, what once was a rare pitching skill is now just a commodity. Most every pitcher is now expected to be able to retire at least a handful or more of batters each game without aid of his defense.

After the jump, more on the demise of power pitching as an elite skill.

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Quiz – Dream Pitching Staff

In this quiz, I’m presenting the core of a dream pitching staff. The reason I’ve selected these seven pitchers is that they alone  have distinguished themselves among all pitchers since 1961 (min. 1000 IP in that period) in a certain, two-part career accomplishment.

What is this career accomplishment that separates these pitchers from all others?

Hint: both parts of the quiz answer involve traditional pitching statistics

It seems I have stumped our esteemed panel. As you quickly noted the above pitchers were noteworthy for both their strikeouts and their control. But, the characteristic that distinguishes them from their brethren is that, since 1961, only these pitchers (min. 1000 IP) have career SO/9 and BB/9 that are both more than 1 better (i.e. more than 1 strikeout, and more than 1 walk) than the MLB average marks during the years of their careers.

3/15/25 – Previewing Coming Attractions

What are the make or break years for major-leaguers? While there is obviously no 100% rule that applies to every player, a good rule of thumb is 3/15/25. Come again? What I mean is that players who compile at least 15 total WAR over three seasons, aged 23, 24 and 25, will usually have long and productive careers. But, those who don’t – well, not so much.

After the jump, I’ll explain further and preview some of the current breed of future stars.

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Masters and Victims: Pitchers and Unearned Runs – Part 2

When it comes to allowing unearned runs, are pitchers masters of their own fate, or innocent victims of circumstance (or, perhaps, not so innocent)? That is the question I’ll look at in this second installment on unearned run prevention.

In Part 1 of this series, I looked at what evidence there might be to support the hypothesis that unearned run avoidance was a skill that some pitchers could consistently demonstrate over their careers. The major conclusion was that, since 1961, team ERA and team unearned run prevention showed positive correlation. That is, of those teams successful in limiting unearned runs, the proportion with better pitching (i.e. lower ERAs) was higher than for groups of teams having less success in preventing unearned runs. This conclusion also seems intuitively correct – pitchers who are good at preventing earned runs are probably also good at preventing unearned runs.

In Part 2, I’ll take the next step and try to identify those pitchers who seem most and least adept at the skill of preventing unearned runs. Yes, I called it a skill because, while some errors lead immediately and unavoidably to runs scoring, many times the consequences are not so dire, affording pitchers the opportunity to work out of jambs caused by their defense. Whether because of temperament or determination, some pitchers seem to do this quite well, while others … well, not so much.

After the jump, more on pitchers and unearned runs.

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Boxscore sleuthing – something new in 2013, maybe…

Towards the end of this coming season, we may see something that hasn’t ever happened before. At least not involving players on the same team.

This something (whatever it is) has occurred involving players on opposing teams only rarely, including in the following games.

Cardinals 4, Nationals 2 – Aug 27, 2010

Yankees 4, Braves 3 – June 28, 2006

Mariners 5, Rangers 2 – June 27, 1999

Orioles 6, Twins 5 – July 2, 1966

Giants 11, Braves 10 – Sept 19, 1961

So, what is this something?

Hint: if it doesn’t happen this year, it won’t happen next year, either.

Congratulations to ATarwerdi96! He correctly identified that, with a 40 home run season this year, Prince Fielder would join Tiger teammate Miguel Cabrera in the 300 HR club and do so when both are aged 30 or younger.  As far as I can tell, it would be the first time a team has had two such players. The closest so far has been the 1962 Braves, with Eddie Mathews, aged 30, at 399 home runs, and 28 year-old Hank Aaron with 298 round-trippers.

After the jump, more on precocious home run hitters, including the players represented in the box score clues.

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Quiz – Mystery Ballplayers

Here is a list of well-known ballplayers, all connected by a common seasonal batting achievement.

Your job: find that common batting feat, and identify the missing ballplayers needed to complete this list.

Note: there is no significance to the multi-column list; a single column list would have worked just as well

Congratulations to Ed on identifying these hitters as the record holders for home runs in a season at a specific age. After that, it was a true team effort to identify the remaining mystery players, shown in red above. So, thanks to everyone for playing.

Interestingly, there is a single HR  record-holder for every age – no ties. See the complete list of these record HR seasons after the jump.

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