When the Yankees drafted Phil Hughes with the 23rd overall pick back in 2004, the hope was that the young right-hander from California could become a dominant front line pitcher. Hughes did nothing but encourage those pie in the sky thoughts during his first 3 years in the minor leagues and by the start of the 2007 season he was considered to be one of the elite prospects in all of baseball by the likes of Keith Law, Baseball America, and others. His fastball was considered to be the best in the minor leagues, his curve rated as a plus secondary offering and his control was 2nd to none.

By the middle of the 2010 season those scouting reports were looking rather spot on. Hughes had blossomed into an 18 game winner with a solidly above average strikeout/walk ratio and a new pitch, a cutter, to boot. But there were also some rather ominous warning signs laced into that 18-win campaign. Hughes posted a 4.90 ERA over the 2nd half of the season, had a gaudy home run rate and a chunk of that sparkly 18-8 record was owed to the fact that the Yankees’ offense put up 6.75 runs per game during his starts. But even with those minor nitpicks, that front line starter talent was starting to show through. Hughes just hadn’t put the entire package together quite yet.

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The start of the 2013 season marked the 16th year of professional baseball in Tampa Bay, Florida, and in that short amount of time the franchise has been many different things. Back in 1998, the Devil Rays were a cause for excitement even with the losses piling up. In the 5 years that followed the Devil Rays became something worse, something almost sad, finishing dead last in the AL East year after year. Lou Piniella came to Tampa and was able to end the streak, finally finishing in 4th in 2004, but the Rays were still a pitching-starved, meager hitting, lousy fielding team content to win 70 games.

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There’s an old well-known adage around the game of baseball that goes a little something like this: you can never, under any circumstance, have too much pitching. You’re only one pitch away from an injury and the most historically successful teams have been able to overcome that little issue by having superior depth, particularly in the rotation.

But, as the Atlanta Braves are about to find out, the limits of the modern-day 5-man rotation can create an interesting dilemma. Through 60+ games the Braves rotation has been among the best in baseball, posting a 3.25 ERA as a group, which ranks 3rd in baseball behind St. Louis and Cincinnati. Mike Minor and Kris Medlen have matured into front of the rotation forces while fellow youngster Julio Teheran has started to blossom into his own. The staff’s pair of veterans, Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm have been more than serviceable, going 11-9 with a sub-4.00 ERA combined, giving the Braves both quality and depth.

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When Alex Cobb was a prospect coming up through the ranks in the Tampa Bay minor league system he was never considered all that highly. Noted prospect hound John Sickels ranked Cobb 17th in the Tampa Bay system, behind luminaries like Aneury Rodriguez, Kyle Lobstein, Wilking Rodriguez, and Alexander Colome. Sure, there was some potential back-of-the-rotation starter sheen there, but nobody was touting the righty as a future staff ace. Even when Cobb arrived in the big leagues he was still somewhat of an afterthought struggling to stay in the rotation before grabbing the 5th spot in the rotation this past spring.

Well, here we are in June and it’s Cobb who’s having the last laugh. After toying with a potent Tigers lineup on Wednesday, Cobb’s ERA now sits at 2.39, good for 3rd best in the American League. Cobb’s striking out a career best 8.24 hitters per 9, and his walk rate is down to a career low as well. More importantly, Tampa Bay is now 8-3 in games started by the 25-year-old righty, which has allowed the Rays to remain competitive despite the struggles of 2012 Cy Young winner David Price and the departure of longtime staff leader James Shields. So how has Cobb been able to go from seldom-discussed 5th starter to one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League?

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One of the toughest things to quantify in all of sports is a catcher’s value on defense. Their are so many responsibilities and subtle nuances that go into being a quality Major League backstop. The best of the best are able to deftly juggle the responsibilities of managing a pitching staff, framing borderline pitches, blocking pitches, holding base runners, throwing said runners out when they attempt to steal, and much, much more. Recently I’ve been doing some research into catching defense and I have been somewhat unsatisfied by both the traditional statistics (caught stealing %, passed balls, and so on) and by the advanced metrics (URZ and defensive runs saved). A few excellent studies in particular have been done to analyze a catcher’s ability to frame pitches, but otherwise most analysis is left to judgment. I’ve been compiling some of my own numbers relating to catchers controlling the base running game in order to gain a better understanding of who the best backstops in baseball really are, and I’d like to share some of my findings today.

The spreadsheet below contains catchers or catcher groupings from all 30 Major League teams. Twenty-five Major League teams have primarily used one catcher for at least 50% of their innings behind the plate while the five remaining clubs have worked out of a platoon scenario for one reason or another. For that reason I’ve examined those five clubs as a unit to examine whether or not those platoons are actually working on the defensive side of things.

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After the first month of the 2013 season Royals’ GM Dayton Moore had to be feeling pretty darn good about himself. By the end of April an offseason full of risky moves in the pitching department and prospect department had begun to coalesce into one of the best rotations in baseball, leading Kansas City to a 14-10 record despite a struggling offense.

Unfortunately for those decked out in royal blue, things haven’t gone as smoothly in May. Tuesday’s 4-1 loss at the hands of the rival Cardinals was particularly bitter. Not only did it drop Kansas City’s record in May to a pathetic 7-18 on the month, the loss was also the Royals 10th straight at Kauffman Stadium, matching the franchise record set just one season ago. After spending much of the first month in 1st place in the AL Central, the Royals are now tied for last with the Twins, staring 7.5 games ahead at the Detroit Tigers.

To make matters worse, the offense, which was supposed to be the Royals’ calling card, has been a completely flop. The franchise ranks dead last in the AL in homers, 2nd to last in walks and slugging percentage, and 3rd to last in runs scored. The homers have been particularly hard to come by of late, with Kansas City hitting just 2 in their last 13 games. That’s not exactly the formula for playoff contention and it appears to stem from Kansas City’s quarter century long war on walks.

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August 9, 2012 may very well go down as an extremely important date in the history of the Baltimore Orioles baseball club. It was on that date that the Orioles went from overachievers in a pennant race to a playoff-caliber ball club. It was on that fateful day in August that Baltimore brought Manny Machado to town.

Since giving Machado the call-up from Double-A Bowie the Orioles have run off an impressive 58-39 record in games in which the youngster appears. Machado’s bat has impressed mightily during his short time in the big leagues. He’s hit .292 with 12 homers and 52 RBI, not to mention the 26 doubles he’s pounded. But the addition of Machado’s bat hasn’t been the biggest key to the Orioles resurgence. No, it’s been his defense, as well as the glovework of his teammates.

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Back in 2010 the New York Yankees were in possession of a pair of talented minor league catchers by the names of Jesus Montero and Austin Romine. Both players were considered top-100 prospects by Baseball America and both players appeared to be on their way to long, prosperous careers. Romine was considered the finer defender of the two, topping out at #86 in Baseball America’s rankings while Montero was thought to be a powerhouse offensive force, ranking among the top 5 minor league players in the game. While Yankee fans spoke well of Romine they positively salivated at the idea of putting Montero’s prodigious power behind the plate as visions of 35 homer seasons danced in their heads.

There was a catch however. Montero’s defense was considered to be so shaky by the Yankees brain trust that rumors of him becoming a full-time DH were already circulating before he could even advance past Double-A Trenton. Scouting reports pegged Montero’s glove work as shoddy and his throw times to 2nd base as well below Major League average.

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When the Los Angeles Angels announce over the winter that they had agreed to a deal with former Rangers’ slugger Josh Hamilton, the first thought that ran through my head was “Good God, pitchers aren’t going to stand a chance against this modern day murderer’s row.” Those thoughts didn’t change much throughout the spring and by the time April rolled around I, like so many others, felt that a lineup including the legendary Albert Pujols, the powerful Josh Hamilton, and the electric Mike Trout would be piling up runs like they were going out of style. After all, if they could rank among the 3 or 4 best scoring lineups in 2012 without Hamilton, just imagine how scary they would be with him plopped in the #4 hole.

But as we sit here on May 16th, nearly 40 games deep into the regular season, the Angels enter play with the 11th ranked scoring attack in the American League and one of the worst records in baseball. So what’s been the deal in L.A.? The Angels have done a solid job making contact at the plate (their 103 OPS+ is 6th best in baseball) and they’re starting to work the long ball, averaging just over 1 home run a game, so why are they stuck with one of the most mediocre looking attacks in the league? The answer, I believe, lies somewhere as simple as the base paths.

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Hi! My name is David Hruska and I’m a Springfield, MO resident who’s new around these parts. I’ve been a baseball fan for as long as I’ve been able to breathe and I’m very excited to be working with the great people at High Heat Stats. When I’m not watching baseball or at work I tend to spend my time with my college sweetheart grilling the most delicious BBQ that you can possibly imagine. You can catch more of my musings, thoughts, and ramblings at thecutoffman.mlblogs.com.

Miami Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria talked a big game just one offseason ago, acquiring big-name free agents like Heath Bell, Jose Reyes, and Mark Buehrle while making a run at the biggest fish in the sea, Albert Pujols. While Loria’s attempts to lure Pujols to South Beach would ultimately prove unsuccessful, the message was sent nonetheless: these new Miami Marlins were finally willing to open the pocketbooks to win. But the wins never materialized and dysfunction quickly set in. The Marlins slummed their way to a dismal 69-93 record which was good for a 2nd consecutive last place finish in the NL East.

The Marlins, as they are notorious for doing, decided that this current roster wouldn’t get the job done. They opted to leverage nearly all their usable roster pieces into future assets, making multiple trades that left the big league roster in tatters. Out the door went Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and their combined 13 All-Star appearances, only to be replaced by a handful of minor league prospects plus some veteran placeholders. If the Marlins could only muster 69 wins with that group of players, it was worth wondering how low they could go with an even less talented group. Well, if the early returns are worth anything, these 2013 Miami Marlins may make a run at some truly terrible history.

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