Here’s a quick look at offensive numbers in 2012 vs 2012. Both are through the first 142 games of each season.

(First number is 2011, second number is 2012, all are on a per-game basis):

             2011  2012
Runs scored: 4.56  4.02
HR:          1.06  0.99
2B:          1.65  1.61
BB:          3.20  3.13
K:           7.01  7.42
BA:           .255  .235
SLG:          .406  .385

Ummm…wow. Offense is way down so far this year compared to the same timeframe last year, and last year’s offense continued the overall trend of decline.

If run scoring remains this low for the entire season, it will be the lowest since 1981 (strike-shortened) and 1976 (full-season).

Look  in particular at the strikeouts, which are ridiculously high, up nearly 6% from last year, and last year was a record year for strikeouts!!

UPDATE:

Here are numbers through the first 172 games of each season, 2011 and 2012. All numbers are per game.

      2011  2012   % change in 2012
R     4.55   4.06    -11%
HR    0.98   0.95    -3%
2B    1.75   1.64    -6%
K     6.94   7.51    +8%
BB    3.22   3.14    -2%
BA     .256   .237   -7%
SLG    .404   .383   -5%

These numbers are even more divergent than a couple of days ago!!

Here are some pitching numbers, beyond Ks and BBs as shown above:

            2011     2012      % change in 2012
ERA         4.13     3.66         -11%
IP/start    5.86     5.92         +1%
WHIP        1.334    1.237        -7%

This photo was from last night’s game, when the trainer came out to check on Shin-Soo Choo. Please come up with a caption for it.

PRESSWIRE

OK, I have posted another stat challenge, and you can join it right here. As Insert Name Here suggested I have opened it to the public so we may get some competition from folks who don’t read the blog. It is free to enter.

Speaking of the blog, we had some downtime this morning for reasons still unknown, but I am suspicious of the live chat plugin since I just installed that yesterday. I have disabled that live chat for now while we investigate. (You can still post comments on the chat thread.)

I have also entered a $1 challenge that has 1000 entrants and a lot of cash prizes. I didn’t create this league. If you feel like it, you can enter that one here.

As a reminder, if you don’t have a FanDuel account, please use this link to sign up as High Heat Stats gets a referral bonus.

PRESSWIRE

Continue reading →

I have changed the Lobby page to a Chat page. You can still post comments there, but now you can also post chat to talk to anybody else in real-time who might be reading the blog.

Just looking at Brad Ausmus’ apparent effect on pitchers.

Roy Oswalt in his career: 3.21 ERA, .687 OPS
Roy Oswalt with Ausmus catching: 3.04 ERA, .685 OPS

Shane Reynolds in his career: 4.09 ERA, .742 OPS
Shane Reynolds with Ausmus cstching: 4.16 ERA, .728 OPS

Mike Hampton in his career: 4.06 ERA, .741 OPS
Mike Hampton with Ausmus catching: 3.36 ERA, .709 OPS

Jeff Weaver in his career: 4.71 ERA, .780 OPS
Jeff Weaver with Ausmus catching: 4.86 ERA, .783 OPS

I picked a few pitchers who threw a lot of their career innings to Ausmus. There doesn’t seem to be much of a trend. Obviously these data should be taken very lightly, as they don’t correct for context and the career numbers cover a lot of territory (for example Mike Hampton was a very different guy during the years he teamed with Ausmus).

If you look at specific teams and years, teams have vastly better numbers with Ausmus as the receiver than with other catchers, but this is because other catchers usually caught the 5th starter.

Anyway, I’m curious how a study like this would play out if done fully and correctly, and how much of a difference in ERA or OPS against would be significant.

Thanks to those of you who participated in our first stat challenge. The results are here, with insertnamehere edging me out to win the league.

Our next challenge is for games on Sunday and you have until about 1pm then to enter. It’s free. To enter click here. If you need to create a FanDuel account, please use that same link as High Heat Stats gets a bonus when you do.

Coming soon, we’ll be providing a prize for these Stat Challenges, so get your practice in now.

Four players have homered in their team’s first game in both 2011 and 2012:

J.P. Arencibia made the most of his homers, especially with that 16th-inning 3-run job last night.

Going back to 1918, here are the guys with the most Opening Day homers:

Scott Rolen is the active leader, with Adam Dunn right behind him.

UPDATE: I’ve created a new free challenge here for tomorrow.

Those of you who’d like a quick stat challenge, click here to join a FanDuel league I set up. This is a one-day league (just today) and is free to enter. Draft a team and see if you can beat my team.

You have only a couple more hours to enter, so hop to it!