What is the 4×100 season? I’m talking about seasons with triple-digit totals for runs, RBI, walks and strikeouts. There were no such seasons in 2012, and only four seasons by three players in the past 5 years, which is quite a departure from the recent past.
- 2008-2012: 4 seasons by 3 players
- 2003-2007: 16 seasons by 10 players
- 1998-2002: 22 seasons by 11 players
After the jump, a bit more on another sign of the changing face of the game.
The recent decline in 4×100 seasons dovetails with the change in the MLB offensive environment over that period. To wit:
- Offense in 2011 was down by more than 0.5 R/G from 2006 (for 2007 to 2012, the decline was 0.48 R/G), following a similar 0.5 R/G decline from the 2000 peak (the highest R/G since 1936) to 2005.
- Excluding the one-year aberration of 1987 (offense rose that year by more than 0.3 R/G, then immediately fell by almost 0.6 R/G the next season), the last time offense declined by more than 0.5 R/G in a 5-year period was from 1963 to the offensive nadir of 1968.
- R/G for the 2008-2012 period was the lowest for any 5-year period since 1989-1993.
Here are the players with 4×100 seasons for the past 20 years. Actually, makes an illustrative little bar chart.
Year ▴ | Count | Players |
---|---|---|
1993 | 0 | |
1994 | 0 | |
1995 | 0 | |
1996 | 3 | Jeff Bagwell / Mark McGwire / Jim Thome |
1997 | 3 | Jeff Bagwell / Jay Buhner / Jim Thome |
1998 | 1 | Mark McGwire |
1999 | 4 | Jeff Bagwell / Jason Giambi / Mark McGwire / Jim Thome |
2000 | 6 | Jeff Bagwell / Carlos Delgado / Jim Edmonds / Troy Glaus / Alex Rodriguez / Jim Thome |
2001 | 6 | Bobby Abreu / Jeff Bagwell / Carlos Delgado / Troy Glaus / Sammy Sosa / Jim Thome |
2002 | 5 | Lance Berkman / Carlos Delgado / Jason Giambi / Sammy Sosa / Jim Thome |
2003 | 2 | Carlos Delgado / Jim Thome |
2004 | 4 | Bobby Abreu / Lance Berkman / Adam Dunn / Jim Edmonds |
2005 | 3 | Bobby Abreu / Adam Dunn / David Ortiz |
2006 | 5 | Jason Bay / Travis Hafner / Ryan Howard / David Ortiz / Jim Thome |
2007 | 2 | Adam Dunn / David Ortiz |
2008 | 0 | |
2009 | 1 | Prince Fielder |
2010 | 1 | Jose Bautista |
2011 | 2 | Jose Bautista / Joey Votto |
2012 | 0 |
Looking at the players in the list above, while most are still active or are not yet HOF-eligible, my take is that currently only Thome and Rodriguez are good HOF bets and, of the others, only Bagwell (and Delgado, to a lesser degree) have been shafted. That is in contrast with the first 10 players to have 4×100 seasons, 7 of whom are in Cooperstown.
Rk | Yrs | From ▴ | To | Age | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jimmie Foxx | 1 | 1936 | 1936 | 28-28 | Ind. Seasons |
2 | Hank Greenberg | 1 | 1937 | 1937 | 26-26 | Ind. Seasons |
3 | Dolph Camilli | 2 | 1938 | 1939 | 31-32 | Ind. Seasons |
4 | Mickey Mantle | 2 | 1954 | 1961 | 22-29 | Ind. Seasons |
5 | Eddie Mathews | 1 | 1960 | 1960 | 28-28 | Ind. Seasons |
6 | Harmon Killebrew | 1 | 1967 | 1967 | 31-31 | Ind. Seasons |
7 | Reggie Jackson | 1 | 1969 | 1969 | 23-23 | Ind. Seasons |
8 | Darrell Evans | 1 | 1973 | 1973 | 26-26 | Ind. Seasons |
9 | Jim Wynn | 1 | 1974 | 1974 | 32-32 | Ind. Seasons |
10 | Mike Schmidt | 5 | 1974 | 1983 | 24-33 | Ind. Seasons |
Note that, up to 1961, only 5 players had done this a total of 7 times. Four of those 5 were or would become HOFers, while the other (Camilli) did this in consecutive seasons, a unique achievement until Mike Schmidt duplicated it in 1976-77.
How valuable is a 4×100 season? Of the 67 such seasons, ALL of them have garnered an OPS+ over 125, with a median OPS+ of 158. By WAR, only 3 seasons are below 3 WAR (the two lowest belong to Adam Dunn), with a median of 6.1 WAR.
Here are the top 10 and ties by OPS+.
Rk | Player | R | RBI | BB | SO | Year | Age | Tm | H | 2B | 3B | HR | Pos | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mark McGwire | 216 | 130 | 147 | 162 | 155 | 1998 | 34 | STL | 152 | 21 | 0 | 70 | .299 | .470 | .752 | 1.222 | *3 |
2 | Mickey Mantle | 206 | 131 | 128 | 126 | 112 | 1961 | 29 | NYY | 163 | 16 | 6 | 54 | .317 | .448 | .687 | 1.135 | *8 |
3 | Sammy Sosa | 203 | 146 | 160 | 116 | 153 | 2001 | 32 | CHC | 189 | 34 | 5 | 64 | .328 | .437 | .737 | 1.174 | *9 |
4 | Jim Thome | 197 | 101 | 118 | 122 | 139 | 2002 | 31 | CLE | 146 | 19 | 2 | 52 | .304 | .445 | .677 | 1.122 | *3D |
5 | Mark McGwire | 196 | 104 | 113 | 116 | 112 | 1996 | 32 | OAK | 132 | 21 | 0 | 52 | .312 | .467 | .730 | 1.198 | *3D |
6 | Reggie Jackson | 189 | 123 | 118 | 114 | 142 | 1969 | 23 | OAK | 151 | 36 | 3 | 47 | .275 | .410 | .608 | 1.018 | *98 |
7 | Jose Bautista | 182 | 105 | 103 | 132 | 111 | 2011 | 30 | TOR | 155 | 24 | 2 | 43 | .302 | .447 | .608 | 1.056 | *95/D |
8 | Travis Hafner | 181 | 100 | 117 | 100 | 111 | 2006 | 29 | CLE | 140 | 31 | 1 | 42 | .308 | .439 | .659 | 1.097 | *D/3 |
9 | Carlos Delgado | 181 | 115 | 137 | 123 | 104 | 2000 | 28 | TOR | 196 | 57 | 1 | 41 | .344 | .470 | .664 | 1.134 | *3 |
10 | Frank Thomas | 180 | 104 | 109 | 138 | 112 | 1991 | 23 | CHW | 178 | 31 | 2 | 32 | .318 | .453 | .553 | 1.006 | *D3 |
And, by WAR.
Rk | Player | WAR/pos | R | RBI | BB | SO | Year | Age | Tm | H | 2B | 3B | HR | Pos | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mickey Mantle | 10.2 | 131 | 128 | 126 | 112 | 1961 | 29 | NYY | 163 | 16 | 6 | 54 | .317 | .448 | .687 | 1.135 | *8 |
2 | Sammy Sosa | 10.1 | 146 | 160 | 116 | 153 | 2001 | 32 | CHC | 189 | 34 | 5 | 64 | .328 | .437 | .737 | 1.174 | *9 |
3 | Alex Rodriguez | 10.1 | 134 | 132 | 100 | 121 | 2000 | 24 | SEA | 175 | 34 | 2 | 41 | .316 | .420 | .606 | 1.026 | *6 |
4 | Mike Schmidt | 9.5 | 108 | 116 | 106 | 138 | 1974 | 24 | PHI | 160 | 28 | 7 | 36 | .282 | .395 | .546 | .941 | *5 |
5 | Darrell Evans | 8.9 | 114 | 104 | 124 | 104 | 1973 | 26 | ATL | 167 | 25 | 8 | 41 | .281 | .403 | .556 | .959 | *53 |
6 | Reggie Jackson | 8.8 | 123 | 118 | 114 | 142 | 1969 | 23 | OAK | 151 | 36 | 3 | 47 | .275 | .410 | .608 | 1.018 | *98 |
7 | Mike Schmidt | 8.7 | 114 | 101 | 104 | 122 | 1977 | 27 | PHI | 149 | 27 | 11 | 38 | .274 | .393 | .574 | .967 | *5/64 |
8 | Mike Schmidt | 7.9 | 112 | 107 | 100 | 149 | 1976 | 26 | PHI | 153 | 31 | 4 | 38 | .262 | .376 | .524 | .900 | *5 |
9 | Jose Bautista | 7.7 | 105 | 103 | 132 | 111 | 2011 | 30 | TOR | 155 | 24 | 2 | 43 | .302 | .447 | .608 | 1.056 | *95/D |
10 | Mike Schmidt | 7.6 | 109 | 114 | 120 | 115 | 1979 | 29 | PHI | 137 | 25 | 4 | 45 | .253 | .386 | .564 | .950 | *5/6 |
11 | Jim Wynn | 7.6 | 104 | 108 | 108 | 104 | 1974 | 32 | LAD | 145 | 17 | 4 | 32 | .271 | .387 | .497 | .884 | *8 |
Rather surprising that only four seasons (Mantle, Sosa, Jackson, Bautista) make both lists.
Who will be the next 4×100 player? Clearly, this type of player has not departed the scene entirely. Any of the last 3 players to do this could easily repeat, athough Fielder demonstrated a newly discovered plate discipline in 2012, his first qualifying season below 100 strikeouts. Votto and Bautista were both injured for a good chunk of 2012, but Bautista’s numbers, projected over 156+ games, would have yielded him a third consecutive 4×100 season.