Wednesday game notes (such sweet sorrow edition)

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@Athletics 12, Rangers 5: The turnabout’s complete. Call it comeback or collapse, the AL West is draped in gold and green. Trailing Texas by 9 at the Break, and by 4 with 6 to play after a split in Arlington, Oakland won out, while the mighty Rangers — two-time AL champs, preseason favorites, alone in 1st from April 9 through October 1 — lost 5 of 6, and went 15-16 from September 1.

Texas knocked out the rookie A.J. Griffin with a 5-run, 6-hit 2nd, and the A’s were ruing their stunted rally in the 1st. But they struck back in the 4th, putting the first 4 men on against Ryan Dempster; the eruption recalled his only postseason start, when he gave back a 2-run lead on walks and a James Loney slam. Derek Holland came on with 2 quick outs, but Coco Crisp, one of Monday‘s heroes, sliced the first pitch off the right-field chalk, and the game was tied. And then the unthinkable: Josh Hamilton raced in for a high pop to shallow CF, shades in place against the afternoon sun, and missed it. Two runs came in, and Oakland led for good.

The final Texas threat came in the 7th, down by 3. Nelson Cruz‘s double brought the tying run to the plate with no outs — but Ryan Cook buckled down and got the next 3 men, fanning Mike Napoli on a high curve to end the inning. Hamilton whiffed with a man aboard to end the 8th, and the A’s scored 4 in their half as the ragged Rangers frayed. And for the 5th straight game, Grant Balfour got the last 3 outs in order, ending his regular season with a career-best string of 23 straight men retired.

Oakland swept the Rangers for the first time since Sept. 2009, and took the season series by 11-8. They copped their first AL West title since 2006 with their first winning season since then, improving by 20 wins from last year.
The last Oakland playoff team featured Frank Thomas, Nick Swisher, Eric Chavez, Marco Scutaro and Milton Bradley. Barry Zito, Dan Haren and Esteban Loaiza started the ALDS sweep and Huston Street garnered 2 saves, as Oakland advanced past the first round for the first time since 1990.
Texas is a wild card for the first time ever.

@Yankees 14, Red Sox 2: Bobby V. was spotted in false nose & glasses, eating drunken chicken. BoSox finish on an 8-game slide, 7-22 from Sept. 1 and 26-50 after the Break. Oh, and New York won the AL East with the league’s best record, so they’ll face the winner of the wild-card play-in.

New York’s 13-5 record against Boston matches their most wins in the divisional era.

@Rays 4, Orioles 1: The starch went out of this one early when the scoreboard showed Cano & Co. lighting up Dice-Walk and friends. Evan Longoria homered once-twice-thrice and Jeremy Hellickson (remember that Rookie of the Year guy?) went all-out for 5.1 IP, allowing a single and a walk while trimming his ERA to 3.10 in 177 IP, 6th in the AL. ~~The O’s may become the 2nd team in the last 10 years to suffer consecutive shutouts on 2 hits or less.~~

With the loss, Baltimore finished 93-69, as did Texas. So the AL wild-card scenario is not fundamentally different than it would have been under the old format: Two teams will play one game, and the winner advances.
The win puts Tampa at 90-72, the same as Boston was last year when they missed the playoffs. The full list of 90-win teams that missed the Octoberfest in the wild-card era: 2010 Red Sox (90), 2010 Padres (90), 2006 White Sox (90 wins, defending champs), 2005 Indians (93), 2004 A’s and Giants (91), 2003 Mariners (93), 2002 Red Sox and Mariners (93) and Dodgers (92), 2001 Giants (90), 2000 Indians (90), 1999 Reds (96, lost play-in). I’m not sure what my point is, either, except that there’s no perfect playoff system.

Triple Crown Report

@Mariners 12, Angels 0 / Tigers 1, @Royals 0 (5th): Mike Trout went 2 for 3 with a double, a HBP and his 5th CS, finishing his remarkable season at .326 (.32558). The HBP came in his first trip and the out in his second, virtually sealing the batting title (and the Triple Crown, in all likelihood) for Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers’ slugger went 0 for 2, then was removed, knowing that Trout could not get the 4 for 4 that, combined with a Miggy 0-4, would have nudged the rookie ahead on the 5th decimal place. Curtis Granderson hit his 43rd HR in the 7th, but with the Yankees up 12-2, it’s almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which Granderson hits the 2 additional HRs needed to pass Cabrera and deny him the Triple Crown.

And after all the fuss about turning his ankle during the clinching celebration, Max Scherzer made his start anyway, throwing 75 pitches in 4 scoreless innings, fanning 3 to finish 2nd in MLB with 231 Ks. Scherzer and Justin Verlander join Mickey Lolich & Joe Coleman as Tigers teammates with 230+ strikeouts in the same season.
After just 1 inning, Jered Weaver abandoned his quest for a 21st victory, citing general fatigue. He finishes 20-5, 2.81, in 188.2 IP.
Seattle sophomore Blake Beavan ended on an up note with 8 shutout stanzas, his second scoreless start in the last three. In the second half, Beavan went 8-5 with a 3.40 ERA. With 3 more outs, he could have had the 2nd zero-K shutout of this year; there were none from 2003-11.

Closing Out the Schedule

Braves 4, @Pirates 0: This year’s first 8-man shutout. The last such occurred 2 years ago, on the next-to-last day.

Craig Kimbrel put an airbrushed filigree on his amazing season, whiffing the last 3 men on 12 pitches to finish with 116 Ks out of 231 batters faced. You can do the math….
A.J. Burnett had a 2.98 ERA in his 7 September/October starts — and a 1-5 record. His pals scored 8 in one game, and 5 combined in the other 6.

@Nationals 5, Phillies 1: You might be surprised that this was “only” the 4th Quality Start/Loss this year for Cliff Lee, who finishes at 6-9 with a 3.16 ERA. At least 44 pitchers had more QSL’s, led by Josh Johnson‘s 9. Cliff’s forte was indecision — his 11 QS/ND’s (in just 30 starts) is the most since 2004, when Brad Radke had 12 en route to 11-8, 3.41.

Would you have guessed that Jonathan Papelbon led the NL in games finished? To be honest, I wasn’t even sure he was active in the 2nd half; it seems that I only noticed the times he might have pitched, but didn’t. Pap was looking for his 500th career inning today, but retired just 1 of 3 batters — so we’ll have to wait ’til next year to see him at #2 in ERA among active pitchers with 500+ innings.

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Doug

12 years ago

If the Rangers lose on Friday, is that it for Ron Washington?

John Nacca

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Just my opinion, but no way. Injuries to a couple key guys, plus the collapse of Michael Young, weren’t his fault……

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Nacca

Just on the narrow point of Michael Young — he’s 35, and he had a .656 OPS/82 OPS+ in the first half. I’m not sure he had to start 71 of 76 games in the 2nd half.

I don’t know enough about their farm system, etc., to judge Washington’s role in their lack of a bench. But other than Gentry and the catchers, no bench player got even 70 PAs.

John Nacca

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Call it the “Earl Weaver Syndrome”. I recall reading somewhere (I think a book about Weaver) that he basically blew the chance to win a pennant a couple years, when he stuck with Paul Blair (who could NOT hit a RHP after the beaning) and Ken Singleton versus righties (when he fell off the face of the earth versus LHP the last 2 years of his career). He said (and I am paraphrasing a bit) that he was sooo enamored with what they did for him in the past, he couldn’t bring himself to the honest realization that they both… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to John Nacca

Michael Young is his fault. Playing Michael Young probably cost them a couple wins at least.

Washington is not a horrible manager, nor is he a good one, and I think it’s possible he costs them a couple of wins a year. Normally that might not mean much, but it did this year.

Leaving Cruz in RF during the last World Series probably cost Texas the World Series. Using Michael Young too much probably cost them the division this year, and perhaps more depending on what happens moving forward.

They can do better. Just one man’s opinion.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Could be, could be. It might depend on how he explains (internally) the decision to bring in Derek Holland in that 4th inning. I’m not saying Holland did a bad job, and obviously he should have gotten through the 4th with the game tied. But he did give up Crisp’s tying double. But forget about what actually happened. You pull your starter up 5-3 in the bottom of the 4th, no outs, men on 2nd & 1st. Why does virtually every manager think “long reliever” in that situation? If you’re pulling your starter, you’re trying to get out of the… Read more »

John Nacca

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Because EVERY SINGLE MAJOR LEAGUE MANAGER would go to the long man at that point. That is just how the game is. We here don;t agree with it, which begs us to wonder…..if so many people now are in favor of bringing in the BEST pitcher in the MOST crucial spot, ESPECIALLY in Game #162, why are these clowns so headstrong into not POSSIBLY buying into it?

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Nacca

Because if they bring in Joe Nathan in the 4th inning, and lose later in the ninth with a lesser reliever on the mound, I GUARANTEE Ron Washington gets fired. It’s rampant conservatism throughout baseball. Remember when Bill Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 from his own 30-yard line against the Colts with time waning? Personally, I loved the boldness of the move but Belichick got fricasseed by the press for months. The difference is that Belichick had the job security to make a move like this without having to worry about his job. Three Super Bowl rings’ll… Read more »

John Nacca

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

It many have been apt, but it was spot-on.

Yippeeyappee

12 years ago

Reply to John Nacca

Late on the conversation but there is a very obvious reason that short relievers are almost never used in this situation. In the fourth inning, with your starter still in and a decent sized lead at the beginning of the inning, what message does it send when you start warming up your go-to relievers? None would be ready by the time Dempster put two men on. Though, once your next guy came in, it wouldn’t hurt to start warming your best arms.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Yippeeyappee

Yippee, I’m confused. Are you saying that there’s a significant difference in the messages sent by warming up Holland and warming up Ogando/Uehara?

Evan

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

JA, I know you think he ruined baseball, but TLR used this approach with success for most of the postseason last year.

Mark in Sydney

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I agree with you, JA (for what it is worth). Personally, I would have gone with Orgando, but Wash is an old baseball man and he took the tried and true conservative approach. He got his long-man, and he had a leftie in to deal to the righties. No-one can legitimately criticize his logic and so the blame falls on Holland. Even if Orgando is much harder on righties, is pitching 0.147 against the As, and is 0.125 in the Coliseum (Holland is 0.306/0.304). I would have used Orgando for 2, then Holland, then Uehara. But then I am not… Read more »

deal

12 years ago

Reply to Mark in Sydney

I agree w/ Orgando as well. The game was sort of a game 6 scenario. I think in a WS game 6 Washington goes w/ the reliever.

12 years ago

How about Dan Johnson of the White Sox? Three home runs on the final day of the season, his only 3 homes runs of the year. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that ain’t happened before. (cue John or Lawrence or Richard proving me wrong). 🙂

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Just noticed Longoria also hit 3 home runs today though they obviously weren’t his only HRs of the year.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

And of course, Johnson hit one on the last day LAST year, with only one other all year (in early April). And Longo hit 2 on the final day last year. Alas, Ed, I wouldn’t know how to check if Johnson’s feat tonight is unique. But thinking only of September call-ups, I did take a quick peek at players with a 3-HR game within their first 30 career games. Obviously unrelated to Johnson, but anyway … Three guys had a 3-HR game within their first 30, but none on the final day of the year. Bobby Estalella had an interesting… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

I have figured out a way to track it down but it will take a lot of visual searching. I would guess that you are right.

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

A filtered search shows 143 players (since 1918) with both a 3-HR game and a 3-HR season, not necessarily the same season.

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

So, Dan Johnson’s season stats: 8 for 22, 3 HRs, 9 walks, 3 strikeouts, 8 runs.

No one has ever had 3 HRs and 9 walks in less than 52 PAs (Barry Bonds, 2005).

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I found a list of all 3 home runs games. I searched through games that occurred in late September or early October. It looks like Johnson is the first to have a three home run season with all homeruns occurring on the final day.

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?103023-3-home-run-games

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

I just remembered that in my book The Baseball Maniac’s Almanac there is a list of “Players with Three Home Runs in One Game, Fewer Than 10 in Season”. It does not indicate any player with three home runs in a game and also three home runs for that season. Fewest was 4 by Bobby Estalella in 1997 (and already cited by John Autin post 12). Next fewest were 5 by Freddie Patek in 1980, Ramon Mejias in 1958, Bill Glynn in 1954 and Clyde McCullough in 1942.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

It’s Roman Mejias, not Ramon.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

I thought Bobby Lowe might have done it with four in a game in 1894, but it turned out I was way wrong. He hit 17 that season, and only 54 others in an 18 year career. That’s a little bizarre

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

If I am remembering correctly it was because of a change in ground rules. I think that park where they played most of their games had a REALLY short wall in left field- 250 feet or something like that- and that in other years a ball that went over the fence on the fly was considered a ground-rule double. I know as a TEAM their 103 home runs was 38 more than any other team in the league and almost double the league average. A Boston player led the league in home runs, plus Lowe was tied for 2nd and… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

#34 above/Hartvig, This reminds me of the 1884 Chicago White Stockings (later the Cubs), who played at Lake Front Park(II), which had an absurdly short right field fence (196 feet!). In 1883, any ball hit over this fence was a double, but in 1884 they were counted as HRs. What happened was quite predictable: 1883 – 13 Chicago HRS/ 124 for the entire league 1884 – 124 Chicago HRS/ 321 for the entire league Six of the top seven HR leaders were Chicago players, led by Ned Williamson with 27 HRs. And people today think that the left field Monster… Read more »

Jason Z

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

The mention of short fences always makes me think of the Polo Grounds and Dusty Rhodes in 1954 for the New York Giants. I suppose due to the famous short porch just across the river, most folks don’t remember that the Polo Grounds was 257 ft. down the right field line. The left field line was a bit longer, 279 ft. In a design from a bygonne era though, there was an upper deck over hang in left field that was estimated to be about 250 ft. from home plate. And this is where Dusty Rhodes comes in. For in… Read more »

Shping

12 years ago

Gotta love the names of the last 3 TrCrown winners: Miggy, Yaz and Ducky !

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Shping

Ahem … Mr. Robinson would like a word, Shping.

Shping

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Shoot, you’re right, but i think Ducky was last in the N.L., right? And did Frank have any good nicknames? I don’t think so. Too bad Boog never did it!

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Shping

Frank was known as The Judge, at least during his Baltimore days. He played that role in the clubhouse “kangaroo court.”

Bill Johnson

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yes triple crowns in consecutive years (1966 and 1967) made one think it was not all that tough at the time. Not unlike the triple crown in horse racing when we had one in 1973, 1977, and 1978- but none since.
Good to see the drought broken in baseball.

12 years ago

Adam Dunn sat out the Indians-White Sox game to avoid the possibility of breaking Mark Reynolds strikout record. He needed one to two, two to break it. Not sure I agree with that decision. But I suppose it’s not the end of the world.

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

“one to tie it”

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Same thing last year with Dunn, when he sat out a lot of the last week so as not to get sufficient numbers of PA’s to qualify for the batting title (with his .159 average)

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Padres´ third baseman Chase Headley is the NL RBI champion. I know, I know, RBI is not the ultimate stat, but is pretty nice to have pwer bat again in the line up, along with a Stolen Base leader in Everth Cabrera. Looking forward to next year (Of course, I have an Opening Day and a team to root for, a week from saturday).

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

Go, Padres! Go … er, was it, Águilas de Mexicali? (Just as long as it’s not Yaquis de Obregón!)

P.S. Someday, Luis, I hope to attend a game between Naranjeros de Hermosillo y Tomateros de Culiacán. Are there mascots?

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Aguilas de Mexicali it is, John, good memory! Naranjeros will visit Mexicali on October 13th in Casas Geo Stadium to open the season.

Hermosillo will be the host of next year´s Caribbean Series, which features Venezuela´s, Puerto Rico´s and Dominican Republic´s champions, along with Mexico´s. That will take place next February in brand-new Sonora Stadium, replacing old Hector Espino Stadium.

Naranjeros´ mascot is Beto the Coyote, a pretty funny one. Actually, mascots are all over the place in Mexican League parks.

I wonder why you picked those teams.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

Luis, I just liked the sound of those cities, Culiacán and Hermosillo, and the idea of teams named for Tomato Growers and Orange Growers.

I was hoping for mascots a la Mr. Met — giant orange and tomato heads. 🙂

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yoy mean something like this? http://www.google.co.uk/search?tbm=isch&source=mog&hl=en&gl=uk&tab=wi&q=naranjito&sa=N&biw=360&bih=640

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

RJ @66 — Yeah, like that — but walking among us!

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

If you like those, then you have love the other teams´ names: Guasave Cotton Growers and Los Mochis Cane Growers. Obregon Yaquis and Navojoa Mayos are named after local indian tribes. The other teams are the Eagles and the Mazatlan Deers (actually the word “Mazatlan” means “land of the deers, in native language).

Now, we return to our regular scheduled stats discussion.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

JA @68 There you go!

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

RJ@84 — Nice work again!

But, uh … does that skirt really go with those cleats & hairy thighs?

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

JA @86 It’s not a skirt, it’s a pair of football (soccer) shorts! Although on closer inspection… well, it’s supposed to represent a pair of shorts…

deal

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

Tough to do in Petco – Did he set any ballpark records – incredible 2nd half for him 23 HR, 73 RBI

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

Headley had a great year. But his own and the team’s run production really took off once Carlos Quentin got on the field, bolstered a month later by Yasmani Grandal. On May 27, the Pads were blanked for the 2nd straight game and 3rd in 6. To that point, they had averaged 3.1 runs per game, and Headley had 5 HRs & 22 RBI in the club’s first 49 games. Quentin debuted on May 28, and Headley (coincidentally) hit 2 HRs. From May 28 on, Headley had 26 HRs & 93 RBI in 113 games. Grandal joined the team for… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

…although is the Padres are building toward the future, could Headley’s value be any higher right now? In other words, maybe they really should look at cashing in on him. He was kind of viewed as a hidden asset to some degree prior to this season, with his power masked by Petco. He’s hidden no more!

Is there any discussion of moving in the fences at Petco? The Mets did it this year and the Mariners will next. Extreme pitchers’ parks are generally not viewed as a good thing.

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

During the late innings of game 162, Padres´ radio broadcaster Ted Leitner was talking about the fences moving in next year. According to him, the front office has decided to do it during the offseason, but he did not knew which part of the fence was moving or what will be the new measures.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

I’ve watched the A’s pull off some amazing things over the years, but this has to be at the top of the list. Looked like they were on the verge of stumbling a couple weeks ago but they held together and took down the mighty Rangers, even with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

They’ve kind of upstaged the Orioles a lit bit here, don’t you think, Jim? They, not Baltimore, are suddenly the hot choice for “team of destiny”.

I know if I were an AL team I’d want no part of that Oakland crew right now.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Both teams had highly surprising seasons in which they came out of nowhere. I’ve always liked both of those franchises so it was great to watch it. Neither one budged or folded when everyone was expecting they would, sooner or later. And much as I hate to admit it, the Yankees put the pedal to the metal when they had to, to keep the O’s (and the Rays for that matter who had their own great finish which will promptly be forgotten) from winning the East. But the Rangers failed to do the same in the West, which really surprised… Read more »

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

I’ve said it here a couple of times before but I thought at the beginning of the season that Oakland was not only going to be bad but really terrible. I probably would have given odds on their losing 100 games and with only a little incentive probably would have taken a bet on their losing 110. I thought their offense might not just be the worst in the league but maybe even among the worst of the past 35 or 40 years or so. I thought they might have a couple of decent pitchers but certainly not the second… Read more »

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

I’m disappointed that we won’t have a Tigers-Orioles series (at least not straightaway). But Tigers-A’s in a best-of-5 has a certain resonance, especially with Verlander/Scherzer in the Lolich/Coleman roles.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1972_ALCS.shtml

Mike L

12 years ago

Fascinating season for return on monetary investment. The Red Sox were horrible. The Marlins were horrible. The Tigers made it in because the White Sox collapsed the last week. The Angels missed the playoffs. The Phillies finished at .500. The Dodgers saved the Red Sox from their poor choices and missed the playoffs.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Just for fun: 2012, Miguel Cabrera — .330/44/139 1999, Manny Ramirez — .333/44/165 Manny led his league only in RBI; Nomar hit .357, and Junior hit 48 HRs. But Manny led in SLG, OPS and OPS+, and a bunch more offensive stats. And his RBI total hadn’t been seen in 60 years. Check out the home/road splits: Miggy — Home, .332/28/75; Road, .327/16/64 Manny — Home, .311/21/73; Road, .354/23/92 In the ’99 MVP vote, Manny tied for 4th 3rd with teammate Roberto Alomar (.323/24/120). Pudge Rodriguez won it (.332/35/113). Manny trumped both in the T.C. categories. But Rodriguez and Alomar… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

One correction John…Manny and Roberto tied for third, not 4th. They were behind Pudge and Pedro (who should have won).

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Here’s another guy who had a better season than Cabrera and didn’t win the MVP:

Cabrera: .331/.394/.608/167 OPS+
Player X: .328/.420/.622/178 OPS+

Player X also led the league in RBI’s and OPS+ (something Cabrera failed to do). Who is Player X? Why it’s Cabrera himself just two years ago! He lost the MVP to Josh Hamilton in a landslide even though Hamilton missed 29 games, and had 6 fewer homes runs, 26 fewer RBIs, and 16 fewer runs scored than Cabrera (he did win the batting title).

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John Autin

12 years ago

With all the Cabrera talk, I was kind of hoping for a rainout of SF@LA. You know why — because I’m a born contrarian.

Artie Z

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I was hoping Buster Posey pulled a Rennie Stennett to nudge past the other Cabrera.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Was it also because, knowing how ridiculous Kershaw is against SF, you didn’t want him to have the chance to burnish his Cy Young credentials to the detriment of Dickey? Inevitabley Kershaw pitched eight innings, giving up only an RBI groundout to NL “no shenanigans involved” WAR champ Buster Posey.

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

Actually, RJ, I didn’t even think of that angle — I was only hoping that Melky’s 501 PAs would turn out to be a qualifying total after all, exposing the folly of MLB’s half-assed move against him.

I guess it reveals my fractured thought processes that, as regards Kershaw, I only managed to hope that he didn’t get the 10 Ks needed to pass Dickey for that crown.

kds

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Wouldn’t have mattered with Melky, the rule is games scheduled * 3.1, not games actually played by the team.

Bells

12 years ago

Reply to kds

Which is 161*3.1=499.1, right? That’s less than 501, unless I’m missing something.

kds

12 years ago

Reply to kds

The games scheduled would be 162 even with a rainout.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to kds

kds, thanks for clearing that up. I checked the rules and you are absolutely right. I did see others discussing the rainout possibility under the same false impression as I — we were all barking up the wrong tree.

Bells

12 years ago

Reply to kds

riiight, ‘scheduled’. way to pay attention to english, unlike me.

Doug

12 years ago

Chipper and Omar both singled in their final regular season AB today.

Jason Z

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Ben Sheets finished up with 2 strikeouts in a scoreless first.

His final pitch was a 95MPH fastball.

He then retired.

Not a bad way to finish.

Doug

12 years ago

The Mariners 12-0 spanking of the Angels today was their biggest shutout at Safeco since the first full season there in 2000.

bstar

12 years ago

Kudos to Jonathan Papelbon for another fine season. That makes 5 out of 7 full seasons with a 180 ERA+ or higher for Pap; that’s Mariano-like consistency, folks. Before you scoff at that, take note that Papelbon’s career ERA+ is 195, which would be second all-time to Rivera if you eschew the ridiculous fact that a reliever has to post 1000 innings to qualify. They should be separate categories-ERA for relievers and ERA for starters. Set the IP threshold much lower for relievers. I would even say 500 IP is too much. 3 to 400 hundred is six to eight… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Seasons with a 180+ ERA+ for relievers, min. 50 IP:

1. M Rivera 13!!!
2. Tom Henke 6
3. Papelbon 5
3. B Wagner 5
3. J Nathan 5

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

One other Papelbon factoid. His 517 ERA+ in 2006 is the 4th best ever and far better than anything Rivera’s ever posted (40 game minimum). The only people to beat it are Eckersley in 1990, Rodney this year, and Joey Devine in 2008 (yes, Joey Devine is the all-time single season ERA+ leader).

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Should Joey Devine’s 2008 count though, Ed, if he didn’t meet the 50 IP minimun? Devine logged only 45.1 innings that year.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Bstar – Is there an agreed upon minimum # of innings pitched to use when looking at relievers? I honestly don’t know. I was simply using the PI default which is 40 games. But I’m certainly willing to listen and learn.

mosc

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

1000 IP for starters is something everybody is comfortable with, along with 162 IP for a year. That gives like 6 years and change, say 7 to be nice. Using only 45IP, that would qualify relievers with 315IP career, seems ridiculous. I favor the 50/500 IP line for relievers. 10 years of minimum qualifying but many good relievers will see more than 50 IP of work. I do agree 1000 IP is excessive. Even Rivera barely qualifies removing his early career starts and his long reliever time.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Ed, yes 50 IP is the minimum. It’s the mark Elias uses, and, going to Fangraphs and looking at the single-season ERA record for relievers, Devine’s 2008 season does not show up and min IP threshold is set at “qualified”.

B-Ref, surprisingly, is a bit negligent in giving reliever leaderboard stats. It seems they only track saves and WPA. Perhaps listing ERA leaders for relievers would force them to give black ink to the man at the top, and they don’t feel that giving black ink to a reliever and a starter to be appropriate.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Do Rodney and Kimbrel both win the Cy?

Artie Z

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

As a thought experiment, if RA Dickey only pitched from May 22-June 29 would that make him more qualified for the Cy Young award than he currently is? I’m cherry picking my dates of course, but in that span Dickey went 7-0 in 8 starts. He pitched 62.2 innings (exactly the same amount as Kimbrel pitched all season), gave up the same amount of runs (one less earned run), and allowed less H+BB (38 to 41) or H+BB+HBP (41 to 43) however you want to look at it. Kimbrel struck out way more (116 to 76) but Dickey still struck… Read more »

Gordon

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Related question, but didn’t Rodney get the .3 inning to put him ahead of Eckersley last night?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Gordon

Gordon — Yep, Rodney now holds the all-time record for lowest ERA in a season of 50+ IP. He allowed 5 ER in 74.2 IP.

So many aspects of Rodney’s season are hard to believe. For instance, he allowed 2 HRs and 2 doubles all year — totals matched in a 1-inning, 7-batter appearance by Shane Loux on June 20.

Editor

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Other than those two HRs, Rodney allowed only two other runs, both in games he allowed two hits. In 4 games allowing hits and walks totaling three, he allowed just one run, thanks to 5 strikeouts in those appearances.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Craig Kimbrel never allowed more than one run OR one hit in an inning all year long. Three of his seven runs were from solo HR. He’s the only pitcher to pitch 50+ IP and never allow more than one hit. Kimbrel’s streak of one hit or less is now at 65 games, but it’ still pretty far away from the record of 97 games by LOOGY Randy Choate from 9/10/2010 to 6/12/2012, playing for three separate teams in the process. Interestingly, Choate also had a 50-game streak from April to August of 2010. Most of the guys on the… Read more »

12 years ago

Quick question: now that baseball season is sadly ending do you guys also do a basketball blog?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to PP

I’m sorry — how many stitches are on that basket-ball, again? 🙂

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to PP

Well, we’ve got a month or so of post-season baseball to go, but even after that, which is really more interesting, the NBA regular season or the MLB off-season? (And this from a guy who does eagerly await the imminent return of pro sports to my native land)

mosc

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

The NBA regular season is hard to watch for parents of NBA players let alone die hard fans let alone casual ones. It is a depressingly monotonous slog for seating in a system where more than half of the teams qualify and there is a larger talent difference between best and worst than in any sport. Basketball has tried it’s damnedest to turn 82 games into an extended pre-season. I always find it amusing when people talk about the length of a baseball season how much more interesting it is to watch a baseball game in May than a Basketball… Read more »

tag

12 years ago

Reply to mosc

I was hoping the success of last year’s shortened NBA regular season would convince Stern to cut this year’s season by another 12-16 games or so. Obviously they’d never do that, but at least then it might be bearable.

12 years ago

Reply to PP

Man, I can’t get enough of it. My first sports love. Anyway, I’ve been looking around for a site like this that’s dedicated to basketball, with peeps that know as much as you all do about small ball. It may not exist… And yeah, I know about the month of post season coming up.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to PP

PP, I assume you’ve been to:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/

They do have a blog:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/

… and while it seems they discontinued their outside-writers stuff last fall (as they did with baseball), you might find some useful links and some kindred spirits among the comments.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I’ll check around there. Thanks.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Off topic, but this made me chuckle and I had to share it:
http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2012/10/were-giancarlo-stanton-joey-votto-the-nl-slugging-and-on-base-champs-this-year/

On one hand, it made me feel better about my own hasty error to see Sean Forman do the exact same thing.
http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/09/mlb-and-players-union-reach-agreement-to-screw-joey-votto/

On the other, now I know that Sean’s not one of our regular readers. 🙁

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Sean’s job is to keep producing the numbers we depend on. It’s OK if we’re not distracting him from that mission. Although I must (modestly) say, his front page at b-ref was a whole lot more entertaining when we were on there.

mosc

12 years ago

2012 facts that amuse only me: 1) Somewhere along the line, Bryce Harper went from over-hyped to under-hyped. I could see him failing to meet expectations, after all he’s only 19. But he didn’t. He had a very good year, a staggeringly good year for a teenager. The surprise though is that despite the hype, the age, and the solid performance people aren’t talking about him much! I could have guessed a lot of things with him but under-hyped would have been last on the list. 2) Rick Porcello is STILL only 23. My god. I feel like he’s a… Read more »

GrandyMan

12 years ago

Reply to mosc

2) Wow, couldn’t believe Porcello is only 23. Seems like he’s been around forever. He’s probably not talked about because he’s been a below average pitcher after 2009, but he has improved, if glacially, since his second-season drop-off. There’s a good chance he could regain his form. 1) As for Harper, well…Mike Trout made everyone forget about Harper. However, if Harper improves even half as much next year as Trout did this year and the Nats continue to win, everybody will be talking about the TWO outfielders who are young enough to be Bartolo Colon’s sons. 5) The Dodgers-Red Sox… Read more »

12 years ago

Once again, WAR is confusing me. This is Matt Cain’s 7th full season. In comparison to his other seasons, this year ranks thusly:

Wins: 1st
Losses: 1st
ERA: 1st
IP: 3rd
SO: 1st
WHIP: 1st
ERA+: 2nd

WAR: 5th?!

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

RJ, the Giants’ park played extremely nice for pitchers this year. The one-year pitching park factor was 87, which is tied with Seattle’s park. So, while Cain ranks 4th in NL ERA, he’s just 10th with a 125 ERA+.

His 2012 WAR is a little more than it was last year, a little less than 2010.

And 2009 shows as his best WAR season mainly because it’s his best ERA+. His home park favored hitters that year, plus the NL ERA was about 0.20 higher then than now.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Surely all those extra strikeouts and fewer walks count for something though. And isn’t ERA+ adjusted for the ballpark? So doesn’t the fact that his ERA+ is the second best of his career (I know it’s all very close) tell us that, even with park factors, this is still a better year than most of those before it?

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

NLCS
Giants/Nats
Comes down to starting pitching.
Giants in the WS.
Strasburg hurts his arm playing golf on October 25th.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

RJ, no, Rally doesn’t care about strikeouts and walks. He’s only interested in adjusted RA9. Strikeouts and walks are central to fWAR. Here’s my favorite Rally quote regarding this: “…Here’s the way I look at it: Take a pitcher, let’s call him Ricky. I know what league, park, opponents faced, and in front of what defense Ricky pitches in. Taking all of that into account, I estimate that a replacement level pitcher would give up 5.5 runs per game. If Ricky allows 5.25 per game, then he performed barely better than replacement level. That’s the question I am interested in,… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Ah, very interesting bstar. Cain’s 2012 does indeed come 3rd by fWAR ratings. There’s a large disagreement over 2011, which is Cain’s 2nd worst season by rWAR but best by fWAR.

Again, we’re mostly talking decimals when it comes to Cain; he’s a consistent player so I’m nitpicking a bit by trying rank his seasons. Thanks again for the explanation.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

The discrepancy in 2011 WAR for Cain comes from Cain’s very-low 0.37 HR/9 rate, which deflates his FIP significantly (fWAR). K/9 and BB/9 for 2011 look pretty similar to Cain’s career numbers.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

Here’s my attempt at trying to suss out the difference in Cain’s seasons: From what I can see, all that goes into rWAR for pitchers is IP and RA9 adjusted for defense, strength of opponent, and park factors. W-L, SO, WHIP don’t apply from what I can tell. Then RA9avg is computed, which is B-Ref’s estimate of what a league average pitcher would have done if they faced the teams Matt Cain did, with the park factors weighted all the way down to the individual batters. Then (RA9-RA9avg)*IP/9 is computed, then park factors get involved to then yield RAA. From… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Yeah I agree, Cain has mostly been a model of consistency, but I just found it strange that he would be having his best year in so many categories (even if marginal) but that it would come near the bottom of the pile in WAR. Thanks for the details of what goes into rWAR, it makes more sense now.

kds

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Very good explanation of pitching brWAR, bstar. While not relevant to Cain vs Cain, there is also an adjustment for role, starter vs reliever. There is a lot of data showing that it is easier for a reliever to allow a certain level of runs than it is for a starter. Probably because a reliever doesn’t have to pace himself, and he won’t face any batter more than once a game. WAR includes this by adding to the expected average RA9 for starters and subtracting for relievers. The adjustment is about +.16/9IP for starters and -.32 for relievers with a… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to kds

The compliment means a lot to me coming from you, kds. It’s good to know there’s an adjustment made for BIP for low/high K guys. I had been wondering about that lately. I’d like to know more about RA9opp. My conclusion on it is we CAN compare players during the same season to gauge strength of opponent, but simply looking at a player’s career and scanning down RA9opp and looking for the lowest/highest number doesn’t really tell us if these two seasons were the easiest/hardest strength of opposition years because of changing run context. Correct? Since RA9opp is adjusted to… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Well, there’s also the park factor adjustment which will favor Cueto in WAR also.

Question: are park factors adjusted for BIP also? It seems what park Kimbrel/Chapman pitched in shouldn’t matter as much because of their low balls in play.

deal

12 years ago

Questions for the historians out there. Will the Cardinals and Rangers be the first teams to have back to back post season games that are also winner-take-all games?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to deal

deal, the wording of your question makes the answer “yes” by definition. This is the first year ever with initial “postseason” games that are winner-take-all.

All previous one-game “playoffs” counted as regular-season games.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to deal

… but if we just talk about do-or-die games without specifying “postseason,” one other comes to mind: the 1948-49 Red Sox lost a pennant tiebreaker game both years.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to deal

Close but no cigar: The 2006 Padres lost the first round in 4 games, then in 2007 lost a wild-card tiebreaker against the Rockies.

deal

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Thanks JA – love that this sort of info is important to someone else.

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Hey, John, do you really have to mention THAT game?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

At least I skipped the details, Luis.

Brighter times are coming, my friend.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Oooh, boy. Really, astonishingly bad call in ATL.

RichW

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Such a late call really hung the runners up. If he had called it immediately there might have been some justification.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Rich, I’m moving my answer to your (rhetorical?) question over here, so that we don’t clog up the “All-Time Dodgers” thread. Here’s the full text of the MLB infield fly rule, offered purely as information, not judgment: ____________________ An INFIELD FLY is a fair fly ball (not including a line drive nor an attempted bunt) which can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort, when first and second, or first, second and third bases are occupied, before two are out. The pitcher, catcher and any outfielder who stations himself in the infield on the play shall be considered infielders… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Right, he didn’t immediately make the call, in fact he called it right before the ball dropped to the ground. And that certainly was not ordinary effort to catch that ball. Proof? Look where the ball landed.

I have never seen that call made on a ball that deep in 40 years of watching baseball.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

It was pretty clearly a misjudgment, b. I thought Ron Darling made an excellent point quickly — extra umps in the postseason sometimes make extra calls.

About the runners — After the ump invokes the rule, they can advance “at their own risk”, live ball, normal rules.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I wasn’t watching the game. Was it the sort of call that could have been reversed via instant replay? Or was it too late once the call was made?

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yeah, but since a fly ball was called, they would have to tag up to advance. They didn’t.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

HERE’S THE VIDEO:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25336303

It’s just a 19-second clip of the play — no aftermath.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Just watched it. Wow! I’m speechless.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John, why were the runners allowed to advance to second and third after the call? I don’t get it.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

b, didn’t they advance on the play itself, before we realized that the infield fly had been invoked?

The infield fly call only means that the batter is out. The ball remains live, and every other normal rule of baseball is in play. Its sole purpose is to prevent the intentional dropping of an easy pop for the purpose of turning a DP. By calling the batter out, the runners are not forced to advance if the ball falls safely. The ball is live.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

So the runners can advance, even though the batter is out from a fly ball. That’s weird logic but whatever.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I guess I’m not being clear. The runners can advance under the same rules as normally apply. If the ball is caught on the fly, they must tag up before advancing. If it is not caught, they need not tag up.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I get it now but think the logic is poor. If it’s a presumed fly-ball out, why can they advance when it’s not caught? Bah…..forget it. Thanks for the help, J.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

EVERYONE — THE BRAVES TALK IS OVER HERE on the “Wednesday Game Notes” thread. Dan’s work on the Dodgers should be allowed to stand on its own. Thanks!

bstar

12 years ago

Does anyone recall a game in recent memory where a protest worked? I can only think of the George Brett pine tar game.

12 years ago

My condolences Bstar for how things turned out. You were obviously a vocal critic of this sort of format and I think what went down substantiates your view. Can’t imagine how you are feeling right now. (well as a Browns/Indians/Cavs fan maybe I can).

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

The four beers are helping, thanks Ed. I’m too old to be pouting about it for too long. As a Braves fan, I’m used to postseason disappointment so that helps too. I’m just going to immerse myself in the AL game.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Well for what it’s worth, the Braves were the NL team I was rooting for. That leaves the A’s as the only team left that I have any interest in.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

I’m rooting for Texas because I don’t want them to be labeled as postseason chokers who couldn’t cash in.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

One could say the same about the A’s though. Not this version but they made the playoff 5 times from 2000-2006 and only advanced to one ALCS where they were promptly swept by the Tigers.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

A little late, but I created a separate page for the wild-card talk.

Mike L

12 years ago

For the record, that was a poor call. But poor calls happen. The shame is that the Braves get taken out by a team with six less wins in a cheap one game playoff so that MLB can make a few more bucks from an extra wild-card. One game to wipe out a year’s work when you have a tie after 162 games is OK. One game to give an extra shot to an inferior team is not.

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

Shortstop was under the ball, he called for it, then the umpire called infield fly. The ball landed pretty much right where the shortstop was when he called for it. If he hadn’t yielded to the left fielder for some unknown reason, he could have caught this ball with ordinary effort.

The umpire can’t determine ordinary effort until the infielder camps under it and it becomes clear its a fairly routine play. That’s why it takes him so long to call for it.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

Doesn’t “camped under it” imply that he was under the ball for a few seconds at least? If he ever was camped, it was only for a half second. How is that “camped”? The reason why that shouldn’t be called there is because of exactly what happened: confusion among infielder/outfielder about who’s ball it is. We’ve seen balls like that drop hundreds of times. I cannot recall an IFFrule call on a ball that deep, Dan.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Not to mention, it seems pretty clear that the call wasn’t made till AFTER the infielder started to move away from the ball.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

Begging to differ, Dan. Kozma was never set or camped under the ball; he was drifting back, then he lurched out of the way. There’s not one instant in which he is poised as if ready to catch the ball. And it landed a step to the left of the last place he was before he gave way.

I agree that he likely would have caught it, if he had not given way. But that’s ^not^ how I see the rule’s intent.

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

Camped under it was my choice of words, not the wording in the rule book. Kozma called for the ball, his progress towards left field had stopped, he’s a major league player. At that point, he should have made this play with ordinary effort.

The umpire made a quick decision at that point because that’s what he’s trained to do. The fact Kozma decided to yield to Holliday for some reason doesn’t change the fact he could have caught it with ordinary effort.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

For some reason? The clear reason is because there is often confusion among the IF/OF as to who’s ball it is, and that’s what unfolded.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

How can you presume he would have caught the ball with ordinary effort when he never actually reached the spot where the ball landed?

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

Dan – the rules also state that the call has to be made immediately and that it’s done for the benefit of the runners. I think it’s pretty clear that the call fails in both those regards.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Ed, I’m going to split hairs with you. I can’t fault the ump for the timing, only for his judgment that it was necessary to protect the runners. The rule says, “When it seems apparent that a batted ball will be an Infield Fly, the umpire shall immediately declare “Infield Fly” for the benefit of the runners.” [emphasis added] If you watch this clip from about 1:20, which is a side view from above, you see that the ump makes the call as soon as the SS waves both hands in the air. I don’t think he reasonably could have… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John – I watched the video on slow mo. It’s pretty clear that the ups arm goes up AFTER the SS starts moving away from the ball. He does not make it as soon as the SS waves his hands in the air. Obviously it’s possible that he made a verbal call, but we can’t know that from the video.

Larry

12 years ago

I just praise all that is holy that we won’t have to endure another syllable of the tomahawk chant. Remember the horns at the Big O in Montreal or the ones at the African Wirld Cup? Well, that is a Julie Andrews lullaby compared to the grating irritation that is Atlanta.

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

“When it seems apparent that a batted ball will be an Infield Fly, the umpire shall immediately declare Infield Fly for the benefit of the runners.” When it seems apparent. In other words, one the umpire determines it’s ordinary effort, he makes the call. This doesn’t mean he has to call it as soon as the ball was hit. Bstar, the infielder called for the ball and the ball was above him, and he was in position to catch it. It’s not up to the umpire to determine if it’s going to drop a couple feet behind him. Even if… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

But Dan, what good does it do to make the call 2 seconds before the ball hits the ground? The Infield Fly call is a judgement call and it seems pretty clear that the umpire exercised incredibly poor judgement re: the intent of the rule.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

Nope, he was never under it, Dan.

RichW

12 years ago

I don’t know if I was poorly trained but in my brief and not distinguished amateur umpiring career I was told in no uncertain terms to make the call early or not at all. The concept being that if you were uncertain better not to call it. The further away from the IF the ball gets the less it should be considered a possible IF call based on the logic spelled out in the rule. In my opinion the LFL umpire should only be there to make calls related to the left field line and or HR ground rules fan… Read more »

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

It’s not up to the umpire to judge whether or not the runners need to be protected. It’s only up to the umpire’s judgment to determine if the ball can be caught with ordinary effort.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

So, Dan, would you say that, on a Dave Kingman sky-high fly to deep LF, if the SS were to run back there and be in position where it looked like he could make the play with ordinary effort, the umpire should call “infield fly”? Let’s take it further. The rule only requires that the ball “can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort”; it doesn’t require that any infielder actually pursue the ball. If there’s a fly to medium outfield that the ump feels an infielder can catch with ordinary effort, even though none of them moves towards… Read more »

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

I get your point John. I’d say if the infielder makes no attempt to make a play on a ball, then there’s no evidence of ordinary effort. One thing that has occurred to me during this discussion, and it’s kind of a combination of a couple of the arguments that have been made, is that if it takes that long to determine whether ordinary effort applies, maybe it shouldn’t be considered ordinary effort. I originally considered this call borderline, and that’s basically the reason why. But, I’ll admit that as the discussion has progressed, I’ve found myself more adamantly defending… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

“if the infielder makes no attempt to make a play on a ball, then there’s no evidence of ordinary effort.” To press the point: You’ve now produced a common sense interpretation that goes beyond the strict letter of the rule. The rule does not require any evidence of ordinary effort by an infielder, only the umpire’s judgment that the ball can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort. I, too, want a common-sense interpretation that goes beyond the strict letter of the rule: There should be no infield fly rule when the runners are not at risk. Beyond a… Read more »

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

I think you’re right with your last point, John, that he could have gotten away with not calling it. Now, regarding common sense interpretations: I think he made the call based on how umpires are trained to make the call. When the infielder gets to it and calls for it, and doesn’t appear to be fighting the wind or his own balance, the call is made. If no infielder even moves to make a play on the ball, then there’s really no way of saying it was ordinary effort. I really believe the umpire keyed off of the fielder in… Read more »

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

Check out the quote from Kozma about halfway through this:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/2012100539509938/

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

I know it doesn’t prove anything because he got the benefit of the call. Just thought it was interesting that he thought he had it sized up.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

Dan, I always thought it likely Kozma would have caught the ball, had he not bailed out. But I can’t agree with Kozma’s self-assessment that “I went back and was camped under it.” As I see it, he was just about to “camp” when, just as he was stopping his retreat, he decided to bail out. I wouldn’t expect a big-league infielder to make fine distinctions on his likelihood of catching a ball, but I think the rest of us agree that mishaps are more likely when a fielder has to run a long way, and much more likely when… Read more »

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