The first of many strikeout records

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ESPN.com reported that the Rays set the AL single-season record for staff strikeouts last night. The previous record was 1,266 by the 2001 Yankees and after last night the Rays’ team total was 1,275.

Strikeouts across MLB have increased at a ridiculous rate. In 2011, the MLB average was a record 7.1 strikeouts per 9 innings. That was an all-time record. This year? It’s 7.5 per 9.

Calculating out to another significant digit, 2012’s number is 7.54 K/9. In 2011, it was 7.13. That’s a 5.8% increase over what was already a record number–and there are no obvious rules or game changes that would account for it.

To put it in further perspective, the 2012 Rays broke the season record despite having 11 games–6.8%–of their season left to play. They are on pace to finish with 1,367 strikeouts, which would break the old record by 8%. That’s as crazy as Mark McGwire hitting 70 homers to break the previous record of 61.

Want a little bit more? In addition to the Rays, this year’s staffs on the Tigers and Yankees are also on pace to break the 2001 record, and the Rangers’ is on pace to tie it. That’s 4 out of 14 AL teams on pace to tie or break the record.

It’s a dramatic shift, folks. The big questions are–how much further will strikeouts increase in the coming years and how will it change the game?

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12 years ago

The Brewers have a shot at the ML mark of 1,404 set by the 2003 Cubs. They’re at 1,292 with 12 games left. So they’re a little behind the pace but not by much.

Editor

Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

A lot of people will say this is attributed to increased emphasis on the home run, and there’s no doubt that’s a factor. But, I think it has more to do with increased emphasis on the walk. You take pitches, you work deeper into counts. You can’t strikeout unless you get to two strikes first, so hitters who work counts simply strikeout more.

no statistician but

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

Dan or Andy:

How does this show up in overall stats for OBP, SLG, and the like? Are BBs increasing enough to justify the strategy, in other words?

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

You can get those results by going to BR, click on seasons, League Index and either Al or NL Batting. For example the AL per game strikeout is the highest ever whereas the BB rate is the 3rd lowest since 1920.

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Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Well, apparently I watch too many Yankees-Red Sox games. I’d be interested in looking at pitches/PA as Andy says below, but otherwise I’ll shut up now because I was way off base.

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Bryan O'Connor

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

Dan, you’re also watching Yankees-Red Sox games from a few years ago. This year’s Sox have walked in 7% of their plate appearances, second-worst in the AL. They’re doing their part on defense, though, walking 8.5%.

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

I am mobile at the moment and can’t look it up, but it would be interesting to see how pitches per plate appearance have changed over the years. Perhaps there is more emphasis in walks but overall walk rates are not particularly high.

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Dan McCloskey

Dan — That sounds logical, but the data don’t quite support it. Here’s a quick smell test: The highest walk rates in MLB history were in 1949-50 — 4.04 and 4.02 BB/G, respectively. The SO rates in those years were 3.61 and 3.86, about the same as the previous decade. SO rates did start trending up in 1952, but BB rates went down at the same time — by 1959, when the SO rate topped 5 for the first time ever (5.09), the BB rate was down to 3.31. As Richard noted, the current BB rates are historically low, significantly… Read more »

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

As Jim said above the key appears to be more relief pitcher appearances. I don’t know about the last year or two but up through 2010 for sure relief appearances trended shorter and shorter (as did starting pitcher outings) meaning more relief appearances per game. The result has been more pitchers throwing gas because A) they are fresher and B) they know they don’t need to save themselves to go a full inning or two or three. Also, since they know they don’t need to spare their arms they are less likely to try to induce ground balls and are… Read more »

Jason Z

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

I agree strongly with you Andy.

Plus this, heard an interview yesterday somewhere on the radio with Ron Darling.

He was talking about back in his day having just a handful of pitchers who exceeded 95 on the gun.

We know that today this is a much more normal occurence.

Would love to know the avg. pitch speed today vs. 25 years ago.

A better fastball can make the entire arsenal more effective. This could also be a factor.

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Jason Z

On Twitter I asked former MLB relief pitcher why he thought K rates had gotten so high, and he didnt put much stock in the relief pitcher theory. He attributes it to few batters who shorten their swing at all–I.e. everybody’s swinging for the fences.

topper009

12 years ago

Reply to Jason Z

So it would be interesting to see the slugging percentage with 2 strikes, if guys are not shortening up compared to previous generations than the slugging should be higher, but with the Ks the AVE should be lower so really the ISO is the key. 1988 AL overall ISO = .132 1988 AL with 2 strikes: 36098 PA, 12215 K, .191/.258/.279, ISO = .088 (66% of regular) 1998 AL overall ISO = .161 1998 AL with 2 strikes: 41784 PA, 14438 K, .190/.270/.304, ISO = .106 (65% of regular) 2008 AL overall ISO = .152 2008 AL with 2 strikes:… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John: Could you create a graph of BB and SO rates over the years? I have forgotten how to create them and even if I could I would not know how to paste it into a comment.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

It would be *really* helpful if someone could write a very brief post describing the html needed for tables and graphs. Everything I’ve tried for tables has failed miserably, and I wouldn’t even attempt a graph.

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

I am pretty sure it’s not possible for anyone except authors here. WordPress strongly advises against allowing all users to post HTML in the comments.

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Richard — Graphs are a great idea, but I don’t think they can be put into a comment. It would have to be a post.

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Dan McCloskey

12 years ago

I’m keeping tabs on my 10-month old, so I don’t have the ability to cite any statistics either. But, to be clear, I’m not talking about compared to last year. I’m referring to the overall trend in recent years as compared to previous eras.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Some combination of swinging from the heels and fewer innings pitched by starters might well explain it.

It’s so enjoyable watching a game in which big sluggers try to clear the fences on every hack but often march back to the dugout instead. Thank God we don’t have to watch teams with an actual offensive strategy try to manufacture runs with wussy stuff like stolen bases and hit-and-run and so forth.

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

Jim — The SP/RP distribution of workload is definitely a factor in the big picture, but it doesn’t work on the recent trend. SPs this year have logged 66.3% of all BFs, which is higher than 2008 (64.9%).

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I am a firm believer in psychology playing a large part in these trends. Other comments on this thread are getting at it–what a player is thinking when he steps to the plate, what a pitcher is thinking about how to pitch most effectively, and what all the players and the manager think is acceptable (for example both walking and striking out are much more acceptable now than 50 years ago.) I think these psychological factors tend to trail actual game results–meaning that it takes a few years for players and managers to recognize emerging trends, and therefore the mindset… Read more »

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Yes, the average length of a relief appearance is trending downward:

2002 – 4.92 BF
2007 – 4.60 BF
2012 – 4.33 BF

But note the SO/9 for SP and RP in those years:
2002 – 6.2, 7.2
2007 – 6.3, 7.4
2012 – 7.1, 8.4

The SO/9 for both groups are up about 13% for 2012 vs. 2007.

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

This has got to be the dominant factor.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

The question I have though, is whether SP inning trends are going up, down, or are stable. Andy seems to be arguing they are going up, whereas I was postulating they were going down. I cannot seem to readily figure out how to get the numbers for that at BR.com.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Andy, it’s a really good point you make about starters not leaving anything in the tank. They know they’re very unlikely to pitch into the eighth or ninth inning, so why leave anything out there in the sixth or seventh?

For me, it’s a multitude of factors at work, not just one or two.

no statistician but

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Implicit in the notion that starters no longer leave anything “in the tank” because they assume they’ll be pulled early is the admission that pitchers in the past felt they were expected to pitch nine innings if they could and so kept something “in the tank” for that eventuality. And yet in those bad old times scoring was not—depending on era—appreciably different from what it is today. Could guile and strategy be just as effective in overpowering the opposition as the 95 MPH fastball, as well as letting the others on the team do their jobs? Andy’s comment on mindsets… Read more »

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Jim @25 re IP/GS: There’s one of these pages for every season.

IP/GS is the 7th column from the right.

If you want more than one decimal place, you can calculate it from the Pitching Splits pages:
Look for Pitching Role.

donburgh

12 years ago

Aren’t there any NL pitching staffs set to break the record also? Seems odd that the only teams to do it are in the league in which pitchers don’t hit.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to donburgh

Per Ed’s comment @1, the Brewers have a chance to break the NL mark.

donburgh

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Rereading the original post, I now see it says the the Rays broke the AL single season record.

topper009

12 years ago

It seems like game is slowly evolving from baseball to a HR derby. It may be the most effective way to score runs, just sit and wait for a fastball down the middle and swing for the fences. If you don’t get one you strike out. One reason could be that given all the technology that is used to rate umpires they are not calling strikes on the ‘to close to take’ pitches. It used to be a full count pitch that was a 1/4″ outside would be a K and if the batter complained it was still his fault… Read more »

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

I still can’t quite discern, based on the stories I read, whether the ~ 5% reduction in maximum allowable bat barrel diameter instituted two years ago applies to both the major and minor leagues or only to the latter. I thought it was only for minor leaguers not on a 40 man roster.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

e.g. :
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100301&content_id=8643638

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

Jim, I read about something similar but it was a rule about the handle of the bat and the maximum thickness. It WAS an MLB rule change, but I learned later that virtually no one was affected since almost all batters use thin-handled bats anymore.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

bstar, I think you might be referring there to the minimum handle thickness, which the article states was increased by .02 inches.

And as far as I can tell, from other articles, the dimension changes for the handle and the barrel were in fact implemented in MLB, starting in 2009.

So, it’s possible that smaller diameter bats has something to do with any changes in K rate observed since that date.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I might add that the whole story of bat composition, dimension and use since Bonds broke the HR record in 2001 is a very interesting one as I read more about it.

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

While I suspect that in the short term that this- meaning the decrease in barrel and increase in handle diameter- will have little impact but that if every few years they continue to alter those dimensions it will eventually have the desired effect of leading more hitters to swing for contact rather than just for power. In his Historical Baseball Abstract talked of Ernie Banks switching to a lighter, narrow handled, thick barreled bat in the last month of the 1954 season that allowed him to “whip” the head of the bat thru the strike zone faster and thus generate… Read more »

topper009

12 years ago

Maybe to test the relief pitcher angle someone could find the K rate of innings 1-3 over the years. Also mobile now so I don’t want to spend 3 hours doing it on my crapberry

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birtelcom

12 years ago

Overall, strikeout rates per plate appearance are up about 8% from last season (they are up only about 6% per game from last year because there have been fewer PAs per game than last year). But at your suggestion, topper, one can see that the increase is weighted toward the end of games (though it is present both early and late). In innings 1 through 3, the K rate is up from .183 per PA last season to .193 this season, a 5% increase. In innings 4 through 6, the K rate is up from .173 to .183, again a… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

So wouldn’t this suggest, birtelcom, that it’s all those relievers throwing 95+ in innings 7-9 who are affecting the most change?

After all, the four seasons with a SO/9 over 15 batters have all occurred in the last three years (Kimbrel and Chapman this year, Kenley Jansen last year, and Carlos Marmol in 2010).

Mike L

12 years ago

Complete speculation with nothing to back it up (my specialty) for some of it. I think roster management plays a role. 12/13 man rotations are now the norm, and the extra bats/utility players are not. There are very few situations where a pitcher enters a game and can’t throw hard, and far fewer match-ups in relief situations where the manager doesn’t have the ability to bring in someone for one or two outs. At the same time, when you eliminate a couple of utility players, you can’t pinch hit as much.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

The generally high run-scoring, as compared with 25 years ago, also intends to increase strikeouts. Late in games margins are more likely to be larger, and a team that is down a few runs is going to swing for the fences. Both teams are less likely to sacrifice, and more likely to swing away.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Can we test that? Strikeout rates from the 7th inning on?

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

See my comment #26, at least for the difference between last season and this season, with the inning breakdowns.

tag

12 years ago

I think the current high K rate combines many elements, most of which have already been mentioned. Also, the idea (I’m simplifying here) that Ks are basically the same as any other out seems to have taken deep root in baseball. Which is fine for the elite power hitters who can maintain a high OBP and slg.% because they hit so many homers. But I find it strange and puzzling that it’s not only the power hitters who are “allowed” to have such high rates. Guys like B.J. Upton and Drew Stubbs and (I think) Austin Jackson continue to strike… Read more »

tag

12 years ago

Reply to tag

For the elite power hitters, I should have said “hit so many homers and draw so many walks.”

12 years ago

That puts the Orioles at 8.4 and Milwaukee at 8.6 strikeouts per 9, and over their careers Verlander has an 8.41 ratio, Clemens at 8.55, Schilling 8.6, Rivera 8.26. Pretty wild.

mosc

12 years ago

I find myself thinking about how many guys tried to “shorten up” or work a walk against the game’s all time livest arm (Nolan Ryan). Instead of looking at league-wide philosophy changes, look at the pitchers. Velocity is way up. Late innings? Chapman and Kimbrel throw very hard. There are lots of other examples. I do think it ties in with more innings thrown by relief pitchers. I’ve always thought that starters throw similar pitch counts, just over shorter innings. I know that’s not completely accurate but more pitches per inning seems to be the trend. Guys are throwing so… Read more »