The Hall of Fame case for Paul Konerko

Paul Konerko homering / Icon SMI

Paul Konerko was a first-round draft pick by the Dodgers in 1994. Coming into the league with high expectations, he bounced around early, first getting traded to the Reds and later to the White Sox. He was a good player for Chicago from 1999 to 2002, playing second fiddle (and sometimes even third or fourth fiddle) to Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez, and even Carlos Lee.

Then, in 2003, as Konerko was in what should have been his prime Age 27 season, he posted a stinker instead. He had a .234 batting average, 83 OPS+, and lead MLB with 28 GiDPs.

Many people wrote him off at that point, figuring he’d never recover enough to become a star. And yet–that’s exactly what he’s done. Quietly, he’s posted some fantastic seasons lately and may have crept into consideration for the Hall of Fame.

Let’s take a look at his career arc.

Over the first 6 years of his career (through Age 26), Konerko put up an OPS+ of 112 in 2677 PAs. Here’s a comp group for that:

Rk		PA	OPS+	From	To	Age	HR	RBI	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Craig Biggio	2591	108	1988	1992	22-26	30	192	.720	*24/879	HOU
2	Mickey Cochrane	2607	117	1925	1929	22-26	43	334	.858	*2	PHA
3	Dan Driessen	2654	114	1973	1978	21-26	58	346	.773	*35/79	CIN
4	Augie Galan	2749	107	1934	1938	22-26	49	329	.774	*78/465	CHC
5	Oscar Gamble	2582	111	1969	1976	19-26	80	265	.747	9D7/8	CHC-PHI-CLE-NYY
6	Shawn Green	2766	116	1993	1999	20-26	119	376	.849	*9/7D8	TOR
7	Greg Gross	2654	110	1973	1979	20-26	6	191	.747	978	HOU-CHC-PHI
8	Toby Harrah	2637	108	1969	1975	20-26	54	270	.716	*6/54	WSA-TEX
9	Pete Incaviglia	2718	109	1986	1990	22-26	124	388	.773	*79/D83	TEX
10	Paul Konerko	2677	112	1997	2002	21-26	111	410	.831	*3/D57	LAD-TOT-CHW
11	Derrek Lee	2671	111	1997	2002	21-26	99	329	.804	*3	SDP-FLA
12	Garry Maddox	2742	112	1972	1976	22-26	42	302	.771	*8/79	SFG-TOT-PHI
13	Barney McCosky	2597	112	1939	1942	22-25	18	220	.829	*87/9	DET
14	Rico Petrocelli	2589	115	1963	1969	20-26	100	302	.773	*6/53	BOS
15	Frank Schulte	2689	108	1904	1909	21-26	17	255	.684	*97/8	CHC
16	Ellis Valentine	2708	117	1975	1981	20-26	100	379	.790	*9/87	MON-TOT
17	Earl Williams	2642	111	1970	1975	21-26	108	364	.759	*23/5D	ATL-BAL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/25/2012.

These are the guys since 1901 who, through their Age 26 season, had between 2577 and 2777 PAs and an OPS+ of 107 to 117. Konerko is right in the middle of this group, and it’s certainly not a terrible group. Many of these guys were good players, and Mickey Cochrane and Craig Biggio are HOFers (I’m projecting that for Biggio, at least.)

Now take a look at comps for Konerko’s Age 27 season:

Rk		PA	OPS+	From	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Ronny Cedeno	502	82	2010	8	38	.256	.293	.382	.675	*6	PIT
2	Toby Hall	498	81	2003	12	47	.253	.295	.380	.675	*2	TBD
3	Roy Johnson	505	85	1930	2	35	.275	.333	.409	.742	*9/78	DET
4	Don Kolloway	500	86	1946	3	53	.280	.293	.363	.656	/*45	CHW
5	Paul Konerko	495	83	2003	18	65	.234	.305	.399	.704	*3/D	CHW
6	Hans Lobert	495	86	1909	4	52	.212	.304	.294	.598	*5	CIN
7	Bernie Neis	491	84	1923	5	37	.274	.330	.364	.694	/*897	BRO
8	Corey Patterson	503	80	2007	8	45	.269	.304	.386	.690	*8	BAL
9	Buck Rodgers	491	80	1966	7	48	.236	.281	.339	.620	*2	CAL
10	Brian Schneider	488	83	2004	12	49	.257	.325	.399	.724	*2	MON
11	Don Zimmer	495	86	1958	17	60	.262	.305	.415	.720	*6/547	LAD

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/25/2012.

The horror….the horror….of appearing on a comp list with Corey Patterson. Seriously, can you believe Konerko made this group?

After that, he rebounded very nicely. For his Age 28 through 33 seasons, he had a 123 OPS+ over 3721 PAs. Here’s that comp group:

Rk		PA	OPS+	From	To	Age	HR	RBI	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Felipe Alou	3702	125	1963	1968	28-33	109	385	.796	8397/56	SFG-MLN-ATL
2	Ernie Banks	3700	124	1959	1964	28-33	193	603	.838	36/75	CHC
3	Don Buford	3761	118	1965	1970	28-33	65	307	.746	547/89	CHW-BAL
4	Gary Carter	3710	124	1982	1987	28-33	149	570	.809	*2/3975	MON-NYM
5	Andre Dawson	3699	125	1983	1988	28-33	165	584	.819	*98	MON-CHC
6	Bobby Doerr	3650	118	1946	1951	28-33	120	624	.841	*4	BOS
7	Mark Grace	3716	127	1992	1997	28-33	67	466	.852	*3	CHC
8	Toby Harrah	3665	123	1977	1982	28-33	100	417	.811	*5/6D4	TEX-CLE
9	Baby Doll Jacobson	3742	118	1919	1924	28-33	54	543	.851	*8/937	SLB
10	Paul Konerko	3721	123	2004	2009	28-33	197	570	.870	*3/D	CHW
11	Heinie Manush	3773	119	1930	1935	28-33	49	520	.848	*7/8	TOT-WSH
12	Lee May	3638	125	1971	1976	28-33	165	594	.786	*3/D	CIN-HOU-BAL
13	Frank McCormick	3784	124	1939	1944	28-33	95	602	.801	*3	CIN
14	Ron Santo	3817	122	1968	1973	28-33	139	574	.821	*5/746	CHC
15	Rusty Staub	3648	122	1972	1977	28-33	99	494	.794	*9D	NYM-DET
16	Gus Suhr	3701	119	1934	1939	28-33	46	518	.816	*3/9	PIT-TOT
17	Roy Thomas	3659	128	1902	1907	28-33	5	150	.745	*8	PHI
18	Leon Wagner	3671	122	1962	1967	28-33	160	496	.790	*7/9	LAA-CLE
19	Bill White	3747	124	1962	1967	28-33	122	522	.828	*3/97	STL-PHI

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/25/2012.

These guys are within 100 PAs and 5 OPS+ points of Konerko’s performance. There are 6 Hall of Famers on there, including two who are recently deceased. (Total aside–anybody else notice Toby Harrah showing up multiple times so far?)

Now, check out what Konerko has done in the last 2 seasons. Over his Age 34 and 35 seasons, he’s got a 152 OPS+ over 1270 PAs. Those numbers are positively Steroids Era (by which I mean that we didn’t usually see guys so old blossom so late in their careers.)

Here are the comps for Konerko’s last 2 seasons:

Rk		PA	OPS+	From	To	Age	HR	RBI	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Dolph Camilli	1266	153	1941	1942	34-35	60	229	.903	*3	BRO
2	Jim Edmonds	1179	154	2004	2005	34-35	71	200	.992	*8/D3	STL
3	Lou Gehrig	1389	154	1937	1938	34-35	66	273	1.024	*3	NYY
4	Harmon Killebrew	1289	149	1970	1971	34-35	69	232	.905	*53	MIN
5	Paul Konerko	1270	152	2010	2011	34-35	70	216	.941	*3/D	CHW
6	Stan Musial	1338	149	1955	1956	34-35	60	217	.940	*39/7	STL
7	Lefty O’Doul	1221	150	1931	1932	34-35	28	165	.932	*7	BRO
8	Rafael Palmeiro	1352	148	1999	2000	34-35	86	268	1.002	*D3	TEX
9	Mike Schmidt	1277	151	1984	1985	34-35	69	199	.913	*53/6	PHI
10	Gary Sheffield	1362	152	2003	2004	34-35	75	253	.975	*9/D5	ATL-NYY
11	Larry Walker	1154	156	2001	2002	34-35	64	227	1.068	*9/D	COL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/25/2012.

Now we’re talking, huh? Four out of the 10 retired guys are Hall of Famers, with Edmonds, Palmeiro, Sheffield, and Walker all still eligible and knocking on the door to different degrees.

Here’s what the other 10 guys from that list did for the rest of their careers:

Rk		OPS+	From	To	Age	G	PA	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Dolph Camilli	100	1943	1945	36-38	158	654	8	62	.234	.353	.343	.696	*3	BRO-BOS
2	Jim Edmonds	107	2006	2010	36-40	424	1492	62	201	.254	.340	.460	.800	*8/937	STL-TOT
3	Lou Gehrig	10	1939	1939	36-36	8	33	0	1	.143	.273	.143	.416	/*3	NYY
4	Harmon Killebrew	107	1972	1975	36-39	436	1573	58	204	.223	.339	.391	.729	*3D	MIN-KCR
5	Stan Musial	132	1957	1963	36-42	882	3225	123	481	.305	.388	.503	.890	37/9	STL
6	Lefty O’Doul	134	1933	1934	36-37	204	633	23	102	.294	.368	.465	.833	7/9	TOT-NYG
7	Rafael Palmeiro	126	2001	2005	36-40	733	3104	169	488	.266	.368	.510	.879	*3D	TEX-BAL
8	Mike Schmidt	134	1986	1989	36-39	457	1893	90	322	.273	.368	.497	.865	*5/36	PHI
9	Gary Sheffield	117	2005	2009	36-40	540	2228	94	323	.268	.364	.461	.826	D9/73	NYY-DET-NYM
10	Larry Walker	132	2003	2005	36-38	325	1247	48	178	.289	.411	.512	.924	*9/D8	COL-TOT-STL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/25/2012.

Other than Lou Gehrig, who couldn’t play past April of 1939 and was deceased 2 years later, these guys all stuck around for at least a few more years. Stan “El Hombre” won a batting title and finished second in the MVP one year. Mike Schmidt posted a HR title, a SLG title, and the 1986 NL MVP.

Anyway, these 10 guys averaged a 123 OPS+ over 1608 PAs for the rest of their career, which amount to 3 very good full seasons. If Konerko can duplicate that average performance, he’ll add about another 75 HR and 300 RBI to his totals, and about another 10 WAR.

Still, that would bring his career WAR total to just 36, a very low total for a Hall of Famer. All those early years without great production certainly hurt his career total.

Anyway, I guess it’s tough to make a good case for Konerko and the Hall of Fame, certainly at this point. He’d really need at least 5 really good more seasons to get serious consideration, I suppose…

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Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Yeah, five pretty good years would probably do it. I would say that the main thing that hurts him, though, is that he’s a 1B. While you’ve put up a lot of good comps for him, looking at the various lists reveals the fact that Konerko hits like a Hall of Fame catcher (Cochrane, Carter) or middle infielder (Biggio, Banks). Or possibly a great defensive third basemen (Santo) or a centerfielder (Dawson). As for the list of the last two years, that’s (I think) too small of a sample size for a HOF discussion. Roger Maris had two great years,… Read more »

Dr. Remulak

12 years ago

Baby Doll Jacobson? That’s a new one for me.

Chuck

12 years ago

Stan “Le Hombre”? Huh?

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Chuck

“El Hombre” is a reference to the recent complaint Albert Pujols made with the Angels for referring to him as “El Hombre” on billboards. He doesn’t like being given the same nickname as Stan “the Man”, feeling that it is disrespectful to Musial.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

FWIW, that made me chuckle, Andy. Kudos to Pujols for being so respectful to a great player of the past.

Dr. Remulak

12 years ago

Wait in line behind Don Mattingly, Mr. Konerko.

HHReader

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Remulak

Let’s see…weak start, middling middle, strong finish (to date). Where does that put him, anywhere near HOF contention (based on numbers and relative statistical peers)? WAR: 25.9. Not even half the mid-60s that are a general de facto cut-off for modern inductees (w/o alot of grumbling from Saber types). BB-Refs HOF Monitor and Standards: 70 out off 100, 31 out of 50. In real-world terms (for 1st basemen no less) a long way off. BB-Refs Most Similar Batters (an imperfect measure, but not to be dismissed out of hand either): only 1 out of 10 are HOFers, the second to… Read more »

HHReader

12 years ago

Reply to HHReader

Caramba! That’s not supposed to be a reply to Dr. Remulak’s prescient quip (which I agree with, w/o necessarily endorsing Mattingly for the HOF), just a new one to Andy’s article.

I searched for a button for “New Comment” but all my screen had was “Reply”. Where else should I look?

Thanks.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to HHReader

HH — To make a comment in response to the post itself and not to any other comment, don’t click any of the Reply buttons; just type in the field that follows the last comment and is titled “Leave a Reply,” and then click Submit Comment.

HHReader

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Thanks, John. For some reason the “Submit Comment” button did not appear. It’s there now.

Can anyone move my original post (#8) out where it belongs?

Thanks.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to HHReader

It can’t be fixed; only deleted

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to HHReader

HH – I either can’t or don’t know how to move a comment in the hierarchy. Don’t sweat it – there’s no penalty for batting out of order here.

HHReader

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Thanks for trying, John.

OK, then, Andy. Delete it and the rest this string and I’ll re-post it wherever the end of the line is at that point.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to HHReader

To be truly fair to Konerko, HHReader, shouldn’t we compare Konerko’s career to date to other players’ career at the same age? You’ve compared his career totals thru age 35 to other players’ entire careers(except for the active ones). Here’s the comp list for Konerko for players after age 35 season: 1. Fred McGriff (934) 2. Derrek Lee (902) 3. Carlos Lee (886) 4. Orlando Cepeda (886) * 5. David Ortiz (884) 6. Reggie Jackson (883) * 7. Gil Hodges (882) 8. Carlos Delgado (878) 9. Rafael Palmeiro (871) 10. Dale Murphy (864) Now we’ve got two(*) Hall of Famers,… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Forgot the necesssary disclaimer: these are raw, unadjusted for era stats.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I think those similarity scores are quite misleading. Here are the thru-age-35 OPS+ for those 10 most “similar” to Konerko:

Reggie, 150
Delgado, 139
McGriff, 139
Ortiz, 136
Cepeda, 134
Palmeiro, 134
Murphy, 123
Hodges, 123
D.Lee, 122
C.Lee, 115
– Average,132
– Konerko, 121

And their bWAR thru age 35:

Reggie, 71.7
Palmeiro, 54.7
Cepeda, 47.5
Murphy, 45.9
McGriff, 45.7
Hodges, 44.8
Delgado, 41.2
Ortiz, 34.2
D.Lee, 31.1
C.Lee, 24.2
– Average, 44.1
– Konerko, 25.9

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

They are misleading, but they are still fun to look at. I wouldn’t really want to introduce WAR into the similarity scores necessarily, because then we are going to have a list of guys with very dissimilar-looking stats but similar WAR totals, and I actually find that less useful. At least these lists give us a comparison to guys who had similar power, BA, etc. and often yield at least a few of the same position, which might be their greatest use. I don’t want to look at a comp list for a catcher and not find any other catchers… Read more »

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Remulak

The recent Mattingly bandwagon confuses me. For years nobody cared about Don and I still don’t. But Paully is Polish! And he is awesome, and he’s not done yet.

12 years ago

A few random comments: 1) The links to Lefty O’Doul don’t work. 2) I wonder if any other players, with a similar career length, have had their two best OPS+ seasons at age 34 and 35. Might make for an interesting post, though I suspect the play index wouldn’t support such a search. 3) I would say that Konerko needs 500 home runs at a minimum. Even then it’s not clear that he’d get in. 4) He’s clearly one of the worst baserunners in the history of baseball. His WAR Runs DP is -36 runs, tied with George Scott for… Read more »

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Hilarious! Of all the players up there, the only ones on which I clicked were Konerko and O’Doul. I almost commented that, as well, but I figured it would repair itself eventually. BB-Ref can be kind of glitchy sometimes.

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Two best OPS+ seasons at 34 and 35? Lou Whitaker is a guy who meets that criteria.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Great point! See Paully just had his best 2 years, let’s say he has 2 similar years coming up? HoF no doubt about it. JA pointed out once that he has had good years in both the juiced era and after. Paul is Polish, and I’m Polish. Paul is also eye-talian but I’m not. I have many relatives in France although I myself am not French.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

O’Doul’s links are fixed now. (Gimme a beer!)

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

I agree, Ed, I don’t think 500 home runs will get him in. By the time Konerko’s case comes up for vote, we’re likely to have several steroid-era players still standing outside the Hall with > 500HR. Personally, I think about the only thing that would seriously get Konerko’s name into the mix at this point is an MVP season. That seems even more unlikely now with two top NL sluggers migrating over to the AL in the offseason. It also seems really unlikely Konerko could drive in enough runs on a bad White Sox team to lead the league… Read more »

Doug

12 years ago

Other players with best OPS seasons in mid-30s – I can’t check it now, but Indian Bob Johnson comes to mind as a possibility.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Roberto Clemente’s 4 best OPS+ marks came at ages 32-35. His 5 best WAR seasons were at ages 31-34 and 36.

Some others whose OPS+ peaked in their mid-30s or later:
– Honus Wagner (189 OPS+ age 33-35)
– Edgar Martinez
– Paul Molitor
– Barry Bonds (4 best OPS+ from age 36-39 … just sayin’)

Hank Aaron’s mid- to late-30s didn’t quite exceed his 20s prime (169 OPS+ age 25-29). But his 168 OPS+ for age 35-39 was his 2nd-best 5-year run, and age 33-37 (167) was 3rd-best.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Hank Sauer had his peak OPS+ of 143 at age 35. His 3-year peak was 133 for age 35-37.

He was still at 120 OPS+ for age 39-41, tied for 14th best since 1901 (min 800 PAs).

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

A worthy topic because of the (surprising, to me) number of people who have touted ‘Nerks for the Hall. (O Brother Timmy, where art thou?)

Also, in the wake of my Sabathia post, I’ve been wondering who are the Sabathias of hitting — reaching a star level after being well established at a lower plateau. Konerko isn’t a perfect example, but he’s on the spectrum.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I would think Clemente fits. He was pretty “middling” his first 5 years in the majors. Actually he may not even qualify for middling, what with a total of 1.2 oWAR in his first five seasons.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I did a 5 minute study. Found 171 guys with OPS+ of 105-110 in first 5 seasons (min. 2000 PAs). Of these 171 guys, only 15 managed 2000 PAs in their next 5 seasons, none with an especially high OPS+. Here they are:

Eddie Yost, 120
Lance Parrish, 117
Brooks Robinson, 117
Buddy Bell, 116
Johnny Evers, 115
Bobby Wallace, 113
Chris Chambliss, 112
Tommy Leach, 111
Steve Finley, 110
Stuffy McInnis, 110
Willie Randolph, 108
Ruben Sierra, 105
Garret Anderson, 104
Jose Cardenal, 96
Willie Davis, 93

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

I think something’s wrong with your study. For example, Buddy Bell had OPS+ of 97, 100, 95, 101, and 106 in his first five seasons. Clearly he couldn’t have averaged between 105-110 in the first five. And players like Yost and Brooks Robinson didn’t get 2,000 PAs in their first 5 seasons unless you’re somehow eliminating partial seasons.

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

BTW, another nominee for the CC Sabathia of hitters…Jeff Kent. In his case, he started off with 6 middling seasons, all with an OPS+ between 101-111. He followed that with a ten year stretch of OPS+ between 119-162, before his 96 in his final year.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Right you are, Ed. Thanks.

Here’s the link: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=VPRCN

The title says “From 1st season to 5th to last season”, which is weird. Not sure what PI was doing.

I’ll try it again.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Oops. I see it now.

I selected “5th to last season”, instead of “5th season”.

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Of course, the other issue is that the average isn’t going to give you the “middling” consistency of CC’s first five years. For example, Joe Carter meets the parameters of your initial search. But setting aside his first year (only 52 PAs), his OPS+ ranges from 93-130 during the first five years.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Okay, here’s a more interesting result.

Since 1901, 56 players have had an OPS+ of 95 to 115 in at least 4 of their first 5 seasons. Of those 56, these are the best OPS+ marks for seasons 6-10.

David Ortiz, 148
Mickey Tettleton, 135
Carlos Pena, 134
Jeff Kent, 133
Roberto Alomar, 128
Bill White, 126
Howie Kendrick. 125 (one season)
Cecil Travis, 121
Buddy Bell, 119
Wes Parker, 119

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Further to Ed’s note, I find only 116 players in all of MLB history meeting the criteria of OPS+ between 105 and 110 for their first 5 years combined, and at least 2,000 PAs. Of those 116, 103 did it since 1901.

Of those 103, 67 had at least 2,000 PAs in their next 5 years. Their OPS+ ranged from 139 (Pete Rose) to 79 (Jody Reed).

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

C.C. Sabathia: years 1-5 (ages 20-24): 14.4 WAR years 6-11 (ages 25-30): 34.8 WAR Buddy Bell: years 1-5 (ages 20-24): 14.7 WAR years 6-11 (ages 25-30): 31.7 WAR To make a better fit between Sabathia and Bell one has to imagine Bell with 10% more value in is peak years, to match Sabathia’s WAR over the comparable period. If Bell had been 10% more valuable over 1977-1982, he might well have been a big star, rather than just a quiet star, of that time. Most non-pitcher WAR 1977-1982: Mike Schmidt 47.8 George Brett 39.4 Gary Carter 34.2 Robin Yount 32.8… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

FWIW, here’s a variation on Andy’s charts. I looked at players who were similar to Konerko through age 27 — they had OPS+ from 103-113 in at least 2,500 PAs. (Konerko was at 108 with about 3,200 PAs.) There are 162 such players, including Konerko. Then I ranked them by OPS+ from age 28-35, with a minimum of 2,000 PAs. (Only 110 of the 162 players met the 2,000 PA standard, which surprised me.) Here are the top 10 from that group in OPS+ from age 28-35: (1) 151 – Roberto Clemente, 4871 PAs (2) 148 – Sammy Sosa, 5338… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

It looks like Klu’s 4 straight years of more Ks than HRs (in qualifying seasons) is second only to Joe DiMaggio who had 5 straight years.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Actually, Kluszewski is one of only 4 players to have HR > K in any 4 qualifying seasons, never mind consecutively. There were 5 seasons for Berra (3 consecutively) and Dickey (4 consecutively). DiMaggio had a total of 7 seasons.

Only others to do it in back-to-back years were Johnny Mize, Tommy Holmes and Charlie Gehringer.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

I see you know I meant more HRs than Ks.

kds

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Re: Joe Adcock. Fred Haney, manager of the Braves, repeatedly started Frank Torre, (.228, 1 HR) at 1B in place of Adcock (.292, 25 HR in 404 AB). And batted him cleanup instead of Aaron or Matthews or several other good hitters. This is part of the reason that Bill James thought that Haney’s managing of the ’59 was the worst season ever by a ML manager.

12 years ago

Reply to kds

Actually Torre mostly batted 5th in ’59. He only started 2 games and had 17 PAs in the cleanup spot. And he did have an OPS+ of 127 the year before. On the other hand, Adcock had virtually no platoon differential

kds

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

One of the games Torre batted 4th was the final game of the playoff, after they tied the Dodgers for the pennant. The one game they had to win to stay alive.

12 years ago

Reply to kds

Batting Torre 4th was actually a good decision. The Dodgers starter that day was Drysdale. Joe Adcock was horrible against him. In 75 PAs, he had a .129 BA, .176 OBP, .314 SLG. Torre, on the other hand, hit him quite well. In 84 PAs, he had a .333 BA, .410 OBP, .444 SLG. In the game in question, Torre went 1-3, drove in two runs and drew 3 walks (one of them intentional!). Adcock pinch hit in the top of the 11th with a chance to win the game. Bases loaded, two outs, Stan Williams on the mound. Unfortunately… Read more »

kds

12 years ago

Reply to kds

Reply to #54. 1) I don’t think that most of those PA against the pitchers named had happened yet, so they shouldn’t be counted. 2) Even if they had; you would need to regress so far to the batters (platoon correct) mean that it is very likely that the best possible prediction that could be made from the data available would have Adcock better than Torre.
Since almost all managers misuse pitcher/batter match-up data today, I would not have expected them to do better in 1959. (I don’t know if they even had the match-up data then.)

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Adolph Camilli couldn’t find a job after WWII, just sayin’.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Interesting story about Camilli. He was kind of the original Curt Flood.
Two years after his MVP season, Dodgers traded him to the Giants in mid-season in 1943, and he refused to report on the grounds that “I hated the Giants. This was real serious; this was no put-on stuff. Their fans hated us, and our fans hated them. I said nuts to them, and I quit.” (Source: SABR Biography).

Camilli ended up in the PCL for a year and a half, then caught on for a half-season with the Red Sox at age 38 to close out his career.

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Other fun Camilli facts: 1) He recorded the last out of Babe Ruth’s career (ironically his wife’s first name was Ruth). 2) According to wikipedia, in his rookie season he struck out 94 times, tying Hack Wilson’s modern NL record. The next year, he broke the record, striking out 113 times (how quaint, 113 strikeouts). BTW, I’m not sure this fact is accurate. Harry Lumley struck out 106 times in 1904 and Billy Maloney 118 times in 1906. (oddly both also played for Brooklyn) He did retire with the NL record of 923 strikeouts. 3) His son (Doug) was a… Read more »

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Re Camilli:
….and his brother Frank – Francisco Camilli (a k a “Frankie Campbell), was a “contender” for the heavyweight crown in the ’30’s who was killled in the ring by Max Baer (Sr – not Jethroe Beaudine)

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Nice. He got to go home to the Bay Area and do it on his terms. He even pitched a game! And he got to see his son Doug get a ring with the ’63 Dodgers as their backup catcher.
(Doug has a 980 similarity score to Bob Uecker).

birtelcom

12 years ago

Also, Tony Phillips.

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Well, that comment fell out of order — what mean is Tony Phillips is another guy, with Lou Whitaker and Konerko, to have his two top career OPS+ seasons at ages 34 and 35.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Dixie Walker’s two top OPS+ were at ages 33 and 35. Gabby Hartnett’s came at ages 34 and 36.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Paul Molitor’s best two-year WAR total(11.9) came in his age 34 and 35 season.

BryanM

12 years ago

I recently posted in another thread something about Paul Ks astonishing ability to avoid scoring once he gets on base the last 3 years. His scoring average over 3 seasons is .206 ( 125 non-homer runs scored out of 607 non-homer times on base) — This may mean something or nothing; I haven’t seen him play enough to know if it’s bad base running or bad luck .. , but ML average is around .300 most years and Carlos Beltran, his near contemporary, and mentioned as similar by John above was .269 last year, not great, but OK for an… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to BryanM

I did a piece last September on the old B-R blog about Konerko’s run avoidance. Some of it falls on his mates, but his own baserunning seems to be the main culprit.

BryanM

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Missed your original post thanks for the link — in 2011, down to a .175 scoring average , which is
awful; the 1st to 3rd and other counting stats in your original post explain some of it. Do people count not going from second to third on a ground ball hit to the shortstop’s left? Or the other extreme, breaking up the double play by being so far down the line they take the sure out at first.
Is run-scoring a skill? If so, it’s an important one…

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Pauly is an extremely slow runner.

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

Is there a non-Molina regular in the majors other than Jim Thome who’s slower? I’m inclined to say no. He’s definitely among the 10 slowest guys, but I would argue 5 – perhaps 2 or 3. Thome is slower, but surprisingly not by a lot.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Thome is not slow. He’s….. majestic. He’s also wide enough to break up a double play just by staying in the baseline.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Brian McCann is alarmingly slow. He seems unable to really run; it’s more of a waddle, really.

BryanM

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

McCann scoring average = .168 last season, even less than Paulys .175, WOW! surprised he doesn’t get a curve ball in the hip more often, given the defensive advantages of having him and his lawn chair on the paths.. Thome is 40 , and tendency to score always declines with age, but he scored nearly 1000 runs from the paths over his career, so in his prime he was at least competent.

BryanM

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

The mendoza line for scoring average is Ernie Lombardi’s .198 career; Bill James in TNBJHBA says he was by far the slowest player in baseball history, if Brian McCann can just stay healthy, and keep his power stroke, who knows what he can fail to achieve on the base paths for the rest of his career?

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Bryan, do you have McCann’s career average available?

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Assuming this is the formula:

(R-HR)/(H-HR+BB+HBP)

I get .219 for McCann.
.198 for Lombardi.
.269 for birthday boy Matt Stairs.
.255 for Konerko.
.277 for Thome.

One last caveat. While .300 appears to be historically “normal,” this odd statistic has varied throughout time. In the 30s, at one point, it was in the .350s. In 1968, it was .270 – so really, we should use a method similar to OPS+ for this. Regardless, I would bet that Ernie Lombardi comes out, adjusted or not, as the worst of any player with, say 1000 PAs or more.

BryanM

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Dr Doom is correct; This number varies considerably, and needs to be era-adjusted; Lombardi played in a high scoring era for the most part , so his .198 (r-hr)/(h-hr+bb+hbp) is even more remarkable. Also, the DH makes a difference, in the modern era , last year AL = .308, NL = .292, so McCann and Pauly are in a virtual tie , ,league adjusted. Usually, the number declines with age, McCann at .219 career and 27 years old has a real chance to catch the shnozz; Paul will run out of time.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Adraian Gonzalez of the Red Sox? It’s probably his only weakness. Career 2 of 4 on SB in 1017 games, led the AL with 28 GIDP last year. He’s not a terrible baserunner, he’s just real slow. Who’s the slowest regular you’ve ever actually seen play? I remember Orlando Cepeda as the Red Sox first DH in 1973; he could still hit, but couldn’t run faster than a trot usually (several knee operations will do that). I saw him hit at least several shots that should’ve been a triple, but he settled for a double. Frank Thomas was really slow… Read more »

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

In the aforementioned season (1973), Cepeda boasted a .161 run average. Of course, that went along with being 0 for 2 stealing, and a league-leading 24 GIDP. Speed kills. Or at least, lack thereof.

Gonzalez is another good player to check, as well as the other big-name 1B out there (including Miguel Cabrera, who’s now off the position). Here are their career stats:

Gonzalez: .280
Fielder: .242
Howard: .260
Pujols: .316
Teixeira: .289
Cabrera: .287
Votto: .269

That’s at least a little interesting, I think.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

This is a reply to post #72. You’re right about Lombardi. He must have been pinch-run for quite a few times.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

This is also a reply to #72. The slowest baserunner I ever witnessed in person was catcher Ed Herrmann with the 1974 White Sox. In ’72, Herrmann reached base (non-HR) 131 times and scored 13 of them; in all, he scored 23 runs in 405 PAs, with 10 HRs.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

This a reply to posts #75 and 72. Since I have been following baseball since 1947 the slowest runner I know of was a guy named Rube Walker who was acatcher (naturally) for the Cubs and Dodgers.
I have a copy of the NY Daily News dated Aug. 15, 1945 when Lombardi was playing for the Giants. There is a photo of Lombardi sliding safely into home and here is what the caption reads: “MASTODON TURNS GAZELLE. Signor Ernesto Lombardo, believe it or not, scores ALL the way from first base on something less than a home run!.”

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Willie Mays Aiken (slowest runners): a bit off-topic, but Bill James once had a great line about Aikens “He was out at third, trying to turn a triple into a triple.” I think he was recounting the saga of Aikens trying for his first career triple.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Aikens’ first triple was in the ’80 World Series, in which he also hit four homers.

BryanM

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Reply to post 72, the 70s were the peak of the pinch running craze, so we have to use low scoring totals with some caution. At http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6085 it says Cepeda was pinch hit for 37 times in ’73 . I contend that ,for the very slowest players, SB and CS just don’t totally account for the runs they subtract on the paths; Pinch running has gone out of fashion with 12 or 13 pitchers on every roster, but I found 5 occasions when Konerko was pinch run fort, and there probably were more; not on Aug 9th, though, when he… Read more »

BryanM

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Sorry ,that s/b Cepeda was pinch-run for 37 times in “73

MikeD

12 years ago

A fine career, and a bit underrated, but I have a hard time making a case for him as a HOFer. Started his career during a very high offense period; is a first basemen, a position known for great hitters, so he has very tough compares; adds nothing on defense, in fact is seen as an extreme negative; and rates negative on the bases. The last two points are not critical in getting elected to the HOF for a slugger, but he’ll need something else to help his candidacy since he was never been viewed as being the best hitter… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

Some excellent analysis here by (amongst others) Ed, bstar and MikeD here. I’m merely adding to the chorus here, that while Konerko has had an excellent career, he’s solidly in the “Hall Of Very Good”, and not anywhere near real HOF consideration yet. There’s too many guys too similar to him from his era, and his contemporaries McGriff, Delgado, Giambi, and Helton have considerably better sttistical cases, but aren’t getting a lot of HOF support or buzz yet. McGriff, who has a _much_ better case than Konerko, because his first full seven years (1987-93) were pre lively-ball era II, has… Read more »

Tmckelv

12 years ago

when I saw 396 HR i thought of Dale Murphy as a comp and then noticed the Career OPS+ was 120 vs. 121.

I would be way more likely to vote for Murphy and his 44+ WAR than Konerko and his 25+ (not to mention the major Black Ink difference). If he put up a few more seasons like the last 2 then I would have to reconsider Paul, but he is not real close right now.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Tmckelv

And Murph hit his 398 home runs in the 70s/80s while Konerko played thru the steroid era. Not a real good comp. Murphy in his prime was a true “5-tool” player, reaching 30HR-30steals once and possessing a good arm in centerfield.

topper009

12 years ago

Konerko has had 1 season with > 4 WAR and 1 season with > 4 oWAR. Not even close to the HOF. If you let him in then almost anyone who has made an all-star team gets to go in. He’s not even in the hallway of fame