Circle of Greats 1978 Run-Off: Beltran vs. Dahlen

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For the second year in a row, there was a tie vote in the annual Circle of Greats Balloting, so we will have a run-off election between the two tied players, Carlos Beltran and Bill Dahlen.

Beltran was bested in last year’s run-off against Roy Halladay, a contest that presented the challenge of evaluating an everyday player against a pitcher. This year’s contest is equally as challenging if not more so, comparing two everyday players whose careers are separated by more than a century. More after the jump.

	Seasons	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
Carlos Beltran	1998-2017	2586	11031	9768	1582	2725	565	78	435	1587	312	49	1084	1795	.279	.350	.486	.837	119	4751
	per 162 games	162	691	612	99	171	35	5	27	99	20	3	68	112	.279	.350	.486	.837	119	298

	Seasons	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
Bill Dahlen	1891-1911	2444	10438	9036	1590	2461	413	163	84	1234	548	1064	759	.272	.358	.382	.740	110	3452
	per 162 games	162	692	599	105	163	27	11	6	82	36	71	50	.272	.358	.382	.740	110	229

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/5/2023.

Comparing players separated by so many decades presents an interesting challenge. Here’s a run down on some of the things that can be compared directly:

	Beltran	Dahlen
Career WAR (B-R/FanGraphs)	70.1/67.8	75.2/77.5
Career WAA (B-R)	34.4	39.4
10 Year Peak WAR/WAA (B-R)	52.6/31.8 (age 22-31)	47.1/28.0 (age 26-35)
Career oWAR/dWAR (B-R)	66.6/2.0	62.5/28.5
Career Rbat+Rbaser (B-R/FanGraphs)	317/312.5	147/167.5
Career Rfield+Rpos (B-R/FanGraphs)	24/4.2	284/274.1
Pennant-winning teams	2 times	1 time
World Series championships	1 time	1 time
Hall of Fame selection	No	No
Hall of Fame standards (B-R) 50=avg HOFer	52	48
JAWS Ranking (B-R)	9th (CF)	11th (SS)

Here’s a look at the their Top 100 career rankings by B-R.

Top 100 Rankings	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	XBH	RBI	BB	SB	WAR	WAA	oWAR	dWAR
Beltran	46	39	53	62	29		47	25	41	88		70	96	74
Dahlen	73	60	50			33				97	28	50	63	86	12

So, the choice is yours. However you decide, your ballot in this runoff round, unlike the usual three-name ballot, should identify only the one candidate you prefer (you will also need to add at least a little bit of extra verbiage though, because the WordPress engine that supports the site won’t accept comments of only one or two words).

All votes must be in by 11:59PM EST on Sunday night, February 12th, with vote changes allowed until 11:59PM EST on Friday night, February 10th. If the result of this runoff is still a tie, the last vote cast will be discarded to determine the winner. So, vote early to ensure your vote counts! If you would like to keep track of the vote tally for the runoff, you can check this tally spreadsheet: COG 1978 Runoff Vote Tally.

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Paul E

1 year ago

Their 10-year peaks are just about equivalent when adjusted for games played (1296 for Dahlen vs 1467 for Beltran). I’ll go with Bill Dahlen

Jeff H

1 year ago

Yikes this is a challenge. Going to go with the better JAWS ranking and pick Beltran.

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Jeff H

You got it, Jeff. Tough to choose.

Good news is you can’t make a bad choice.

Bob Eno

1 year ago

I feel a little like an interloper, since I’m casting CoG votes after more or less dropping off HHS for years. But having been a partial cause of this runoff by voting late for Bill Dahlen, I think I should vote for him now, and give an argument. Dahlen and Beltran are, in fact, very close in some key numbers, and I can see reasons to vote either way. For several years I argued—or bloviated about—Dahlen’s case (and Bobby Wallace’s) on the basis of the stats. Rather than repeat those arguments, since Doug has presented the runoff stats fairly and… Read more »

no statistician but

1 year ago

Reply to Bob Eno

Bob Eno: Here’s another voice from the past with input on Dahlen—sort of. Another problem with the CoG that has developed over time is that, by the rules, there is an absolute necessity of electing someone, anyone, to keep the number of members even with that of the HOF writers electees. Looking at the candidates for this year, both ballots, it seems to me, as it often has in the past, that, (with the possible exception of Dahlen at the high end and the definite exception of three or four others at the low end—Simmons and Berkman and take your… Read more »

Bob Eno

1 year ago

Reply to no statistician but

Always a pleasure to meet up with you here, nsb!

Bob Eno

1 year ago

Reply to Bob Eno

Just to add a quick point of clarification to my own post: Dahlen wasn’t just a 19th century player. About 45% of his WAR was compiled in the period 1901-1909.

Paul E

1 year ago

Reply to Bob Eno

Bob Eno: At retirement, I believe Dahlen was second in career WAR for his position, behind only Wagner

Bob Eno

1 year ago

Reply to Paul E

I think he was third among shortstops, Paul, but shortstops were over-represented among the leaders. The WAR leaderboard at the time Dahlen retired (1911) looks like this (to my aging eyes): Cy Young, P, (1890-1911) 163.6 Kid Nichols, P, (1890-1906) 116.3 Honus Wagner, SS, (1897-1911) 108.3 Nap Lajoie, 2B, (1896-1911) 94.8 Cap Anson, 1B, (1871-1897) 94.3 Tim Keefe P, (1880-1893) 86.9 George Davis, SS, (1890-1909) 84.5 Roger Connor, 1B, (1880-1897) 84.3 John Clarkson, P, (1882-1894) 83.2 Dan Brouthers, 1B, (1879-1904) 78.7 Jim McCormick P, (1878-1887) 76.2 Bill Dahlen SS, (1891-1911) 75.2 Dahlen was seventh among position players. (Worth noting that… Read more »

Paul E

1 year ago

Reply to Bob Eno

amazing that Kid Nichols had to wait till 1949 (age 79) for Cooperstown to call 45 years past retirement

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Paul E

As Bob Eno noted above, Dahlen was actually third in WAR among shortstops, behind Wagner and George Davis.

However, while Dahlen played 87% of his games at SS, for Davis it was only 58%.

Paul E

1 year ago

Reply to Doug

Bob & Doug,
I should have used the 51% filter. Thanks for the correction. I think when evaluating these guys (from a general sense, not necessarily CoG) one should consider where they were in their own era(s). Though WAR certainly helps comparing guys across eras. Throw in a position difference as well as WAYYYY different eras and comparing Beltran versus Dahlen is extremely difficult.
Was Allen as good as McCovey and Stargell; Hardy Richardson versus Biddy McPhee, etc?…- these are easier questions to answer

Richard Chester

1 year ago

I really don’t like comparing players whose careers are mostly pre-1901 with those who played strictly after 1900. I decided to go with Beltran due to his higher OPS+ and better JAWS ranking.

Tom

1 year ago

Dahlen. We shouldn’t pretend the 19 century didn’t happen.

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Tom

Particularly in Dahlen’s case, since over 88% of his career was in the 1893 and later period, probably the more appropriate dividing line between the “modern” game, and the varieties that preceded it (as Bob Eno noted in his comment above). One could argue that Dahlen and other hitters of his period benefited unduly from the rule change moving the pitcher back ten feet, particularly in 1894 and 1895. The other difference between the 1893 and 1901 dividing lines is syndicate ownership prior to 1900 that meant, in effect, that not all teams were able to compete on a level… Read more »

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug

Richard Chester

1 year ago

Reply to Doug

A significant change took took place after 1900. The rule of not counting foul balls as strikes was struck down. As an example under that rule if a batter fouled off the first 2 pitches the count was 0-0 instead of 0-2. The NL went to the rule of counting foul balls as strikes in 1901. And the AL did so in 1903.

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Nice catch, Richard.

I hadn’t realized that that rule change happened as late as it did.

Not a surprise, then, to see so many high strikeout pitchers in the first decade of the modern era. To wit, here are the total 150 strikeout seasons:
NL 1893-1900: 8 among 12 teams (except 8 teams in 1900)
AL 1901-1902: 3 among 8 teams
NL 1901-1908: 32 among 8 teams
AL 1903-1910: 48 among 8 teams

How did it affect Dahlen? Not much. His K rate was 6.8% of PA (1891-1900) and 7.8% (1901-11).

Bob Eno

1 year ago

Reply to Doug

Well, to get back into some long forgotten weeds, the upshot of the posts that I wrote a few years back was that I argued the sea-change in 1890s baseball was only partly the change in the pitcher’s box. That immediate effect (higher offense) seems to have been really short-lived. My argument was that it gave near-simultaneous rise to a new form of play in reaction, small ball, which was the start of the Dead Ball Era and a host of professionalized features that distinguished baseball from the mid-’90s through the 1910s, until overturned by the lively ball. Training, batting… Read more »

Doug

1 year ago

Seems remarkable to me that Dahlen is not in the HoF. Possibly because his career straddles the modern era boundary so evenly, the different HoF committees weren’t sure which should have jurisdiction. Or, possibly being judged primarily by his offensive numbers, I can see how he might be overlooked in the pre-WAR era. But, surely by now, one HoF committee or another ought to look at him closely and remedy the oversight.

Bob Eno

1 year ago

Reply to Doug

At least Dahlen drew more attention from BBWAA voters than George Davis did. Dahlen received one vote in 1938. Davis never reached those heights. Once Bill James took up Dahlen’s cause (after Davis finally prevailed) I was sure he’d start getting some attention, but . . .

Author

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Bob Eno

Davis and Dahlen were born 8 months and 50 miles apart in upstate New York. They possibly missed becoming teammates on the ’04 Giants, when Davis was returned by the Giants to the White Sox midway in the ’03 season (Davis was a double-jumper, going from the Giants to the White Sox in ’02, and back to the Giants in ’03). Perhaps on account of losing Davis, the Giants traded for Dahlen after the ’03 season. Noticed something odd on George Davis’s player page. He’s identified as being on the post-season roster of the 1914 Braves, but not playing in… Read more »

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug

Scary Tuna

1 year ago

Reply to Doug

It looks like the postseason information associated with another George Davis (nicknamed “Iron”) was mistakenly tied to the B-Ref statistics of HOFer George Davis. Iron Davis was a pitcher for the NY Highlanders in 1912 and the Boston Braves from 1913-15. His player bio mentions he was on the 1914 Braves postseason roster but did not appear in a game. As his teams didn’t win the pennant in any of the other three seasons he played, there is no postseason statistical line even shown on his page.

Bob Eno

1 year ago

Reply to Scary Tuna

Great detective work, Scary! You’re surely correct, and it turns out that Iron Davis has one of the most interesting SABR biographies I’ve encountered.

Scary Tuna

1 year ago

Reply to Bob Eno

Oops. I meant to say his B-R bullpen page, not his bio. So after seeing your note, Bob, I read his bio and found it fascinating.

Author

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Scary Tuna

Iron Davis also has a most interesting box score line in his career finale (click on image to bring it into focus). There are only 20 game scores of -13 or lower in a 8+ IP complete game, including one other career finale by Harley Parker. Davis’s 24 hits allowed are the fourth most in such games. Among CGs allowing no walks or HR and striking out none, there’s no other game remotely similar in terms of game score, or hits or runs allowed. Davis has some good company, with a few name pitchers among the lowest 25 game scores… Read more »

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug

Bob Eno

1 year ago

Reply to Doug

Pretty awful outing for ol’ George. But bear in mind: 1) It was the last day of the season and a meaningless game; 2) He hadn’t piched in over a month; 3) His mind was on getting back to Harvard Law; 4) Although his ERA ballooned a full point, his FIP actually fell. One year earlier he pitched a no-hitter, extending the Miracle Braves’ one-game margin in early September. For a guy who started only 22 games, Iron George had a varied career. (And then he became a lawyer, stockbroker, and astronomer.) That Parker game is really more of a… Read more »

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Bob Eno

Here’s the scoop from Parker’s SABR Bio. Four days later he’d (Parker) joined the Western Association’s Louisville Colonels instead, led by none other than Walt Wilmot. After four starts, in which he was 1-2 with 4.5 runs allowed per game, Parker developed a sore arm and was sent home to rest. Four days later, on his 29th birthday, Parker’s arm felt good enough for him to sign a contract with the NL Cincinnati Reds. In the midst of a toboggan slide,71 the Reds had gone winless in eight straight. After a 25-13 mauling by the New York Giants, Reds manager Bid McPhee had… Read more »

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug

Tom

1 year ago

Reply to Doug

In that 25-13 Cincinnati game, Bill Phyle of the Giants had a game score of 2.0 with an 8,2 inning 8CG, 18 hits allowed, 13 runs (9 earned), 3 Ks, 5 walks. With that victory, Phyle ended the day with a record of 5-0, 4.92. The rest of the year, he went 2-9, 4;34.

The Reds forfeited with two outs in the bottom of the 9th. It seems that the home fans got bored and started leaving, Leaving meant they had to walk through the field.

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Tom

Nice add on, Tom.

In the days when the CG was the norm, there would be no reason to replace your pitcher if you were winning, no matter the score. Had the game been completed, Phyle likely would have had the lowest game score in a 9IP CG win, a mark set earlier that season in this game (click on image to bring it into focus).

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug

Andy

1 year ago

Both are worthy, but I fear Dahlen will continue to be overlooked if not elected this year. Beltran will have plenty of other opportunities.

I vote for Dahlen.

opal611

1 year ago

My vote is for Carlos Beltran.

Thanks!

Voomo

1 year ago

I’ll vote Beltran.

He did everything well. Power, speed, obp, defense, longevity, post-season excellence.

Voomo

1 year ago

Reply to Voomo

It really is splitting hairs at this point. Dahlen is worthy, too. Though I am more prone to trust what Ive been able to see with my own eyes, and numbers that I feel are more complete. Dont know what to make of Dahlen’s defensive stats, simply because they are not as complete as today’s defensive stats. Can’t discount them, just dont know EXACTLY what to do with them. He’s 4th all-time in Assists, which says something. Of course, he’s also 2nd all-time in Errors. ___ Beltran is 4th all time in SB% 88.506 Buxton 87.912 Alexi Casilla 87.500 Utley… Read more »

Voomo

1 year ago

I was looking at the Career H/9 leaderboards:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hits_per_nine_career.shtml

And noticed that Bob Turley is 14th among Starters
(right behind some guy named George Ruth).

Just wanted to share the beauty of Turley’s 1954:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turlebo01.shtml

178 H
181 BB
185 SO

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Voomo

Turley did the same thing (more K than BB, more BB than H) the next year as well, with 210/177/168. Only others to do so in a qualified season:
-Randy Johnson (1991): 228/152/151
-Nolan Ryan (1977): 341/204/198
-Sam Jones (1955): 198/185/175

Jones led his league in K, BB, K/9, H/9 and … Losses, with 20 of the last.

Dropping the bar to 125 IP adds Ryan (1970) and Bobby Witt twice, in 1986 and 1987.

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug

Voomo

1 year ago

Saw this extraordinary stat today:

If a rookie came up and stole 50 bases, every year, for 28 years… he would still be 6 short of Rickey.

Scary Tuna

1 year ago

Reply to Voomo

That is amazing! I’ll go out on a limb and say Rickey’s record should be safe for awhile. No player has stolen more than 46 in any of the past five seasons, and the longest major league career has been 27 seasons. There are so many noteworthy stats from his career. It’s remarkable that Rickey played 25 seasons while drawing lots of walks, scoring often, and retaining some speed to the end of his career. He led the league with 66 SB at age 39, and remained in the top ten the next two seasons. He averaged almost 61 steals… Read more »

Scary Tuna

1 year ago

While hopeful we will be electing a deserving Beltran in the near future, my vote is for Dahlen this round. I planned to choose him coming into this runoff, but as I often don’t have a good argument to present in support of my choice, I appreciated the posts from Bob and nsb to fill that void.

Voomo

1 year ago

So who won? I dont see my vote on the spreadsheet.

Doug

1 year ago

Tough one to choose, to be sure.

I’ll vote for Dahlen also. I have no doubt Beltran will also make it as well before much longer.

Doug

1 year ago

Current tally is 6-4 for Dahlen.

Voting closes in 9 hours, at midnight Eastern tonight.

Bob Eno

1 year ago

Reply to Doug

I think it’s interesting that this year’s CoG runoff drew more votes (10) than the main ballot (9). Looking back at a few runoffs, they all saw a slight dropoff in votes.

Paul E

1 year ago

With a little bit of a “lull in the action”, figured I’d post these two contemporaries. Any idea whom these two may be?:
Games PA Rbat OPS+ BA/OBP/SLG
1,092 4,731 341 153 .341/.442/.621
1,172 4,795 313 147 .334/.426/.618

Richard Chester

1 year ago

Reply to Paul E

Without looking up anyone, is Lefty O’Doul 1 of them.

Paul E

1 year ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Actually, these guys were teammates. One set of numbers (bottom) represents the entirety of his career with the franchise, the other set is his teammate’s stats with that franchise from age 25-31

Richard Chester

1 year ago

Reply to Paul E

I’ll guess Jimmie Foxx and Al Simmons.

Tom

1 year ago

Reply to Paul E

Todd Helton 1999-2005 & Larry Walker 1995-2004

Paul E

1 year ago

Reply to Tom

Tom is correct. Todd Helton, apparently, was just as good, if not better, than Walker for a similar stretch of number of games that make up Larry’s COLO years

Doug

1 year ago

Reply to Paul E

For context, Helton is 7 years younger than Walker, so Helton’s stretch was at age 25-31 for those seasons, compared to age 28-37 for Walker.

My favorite Helton stat: he is the only player with 100+ XBH in consecutive seasons (Chuck Klein and Lou Gehrig are the only others with 100+ XBH in any two seasons).

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug

Tom

1 year ago

Reply to Paul E

Not to take anything away from those two, but, let us not forget about their home park.

In 1996, the Rockies, as a team, hit .343/.408/.579 at home.
In 2000, at home, they hit .334/.401/.538.
From 1995 to 2001, they hit .328/.390/.545 at home.

Paul E

1 year ago

Reply to Tom

Tom,
I think you are taking something away frpom those two and I agree

Paul E

1 year ago

Reply to Tom

In 1996, COLO averaged 8 runs/game at home ?