HHS contributor “no statistician but” continues his look at Hall of Famers who maybe shouldn’t be. Specifically, he’s examining those HOFers with a Hall of Stats rating under 100. Earlier posts looked at position players. This post concludes the series with a look at pitchers. More after the jump.

To me, pitchers present a special problem of interpretation with reference to both the Hall of Fame and the Hall of Stats. The HOF includes 83 pitchers out of its 261 Major and Negro League player inductees, 32% of the total, a huge body of talent to assess.

And the HOS, to me, shows its weakest side in the rankings it gives pitchers, since it favors accumulators to a tremendous degree. By the HOS ranking Early Wynn (108) is ‘better’ than Billy Pierce (101), a premise that to my insane mind no sane person would subscribe to. Further, anyone who ranks Bret Saberhagen (121) over Juan Marichal or Don Drysdale (both 115) will like the HOS approach, but I wonder if many such people exist.

Thus, to me the following listing of pitchers in the HOF but not the HOS cuts both ways in terms of its arguability. For starting pitchers, in any event, I have included the HOS rating, innings pitched, ERA+, pitching WAR (From Baseball-Reference), and Win Shares (WS) and Career Assessment Win Shares (CAWS), both from Baseball-Gauge (note that CAWS+ is based on 100 = 220 CAWS for starters and 160 CAWS for relievers). For relievers, it’s those stats plus game appearances and saves. Previously, I’ve used the 7th ranked player by JAWS as a reference, but I’ll depart from that approach here to instead select reference pitchers with workloads more like the pitchers under discussion.

LH Starters
Rube Marquard 65—3306.2 IP; 104 ERA+; 36.6 pWAR; 210 WS; 188 CAWS; 86 CAWS+
Herb Pennock 82—3571.2 IP; 106 ERA+; 43.9 pWAR; 239 WS; 201 CAWS; 91 CAWS+ (WW I: 1 year)
Lefty Gomez 77—2503.0 IP; 125 ERA+; 43.1 pWAR; 191 WS; 188 CAWS; 85 CAWS+
Reference: Carl Hubbell 136—3590.1 IP; 130ERA+; 68.6 pWAR; 305 WS; 262 CAWS; 119 CAWS+
Last man in HOS: Jerry Koosman 100—3839.1 IP; 110ERA+; 57.0 pWAR; 246 WS; 200 CAWS; 91 CAWS+

RH Starters
Jack Chesbro 76—2896.2 IP; 111 ERA+; 41.9 pWAR; 210 WS; 210 CAWS; 95 CAWS+
Chief Bender 91—3017.0 IP; 112 ERA+; 42.9 pWAR; 228 WS; 195 CAWS; 89 CAWS+
Waite Hoyt 95—3752.1 IP; 112 ERA+; 53.3 pWAR; 267 WS; 209 CAWS; 95 CAWS+
Burleigh Grimes 98—4180.0 IP; 108 ERA+; 46.9 pWAR; 279 WS; 238 CAWS; 108 CAWS+
Bob Lemon 76—2850.0 IP; 119 ERA+; 37.8 p WAR (10.8 oWAR); 230 WS; 223 CAWS; 101 CAWS+ (WW II: 3 years)
Catfish Hunter 65—3449.1 IP; 104 ERA+; 36.6 pWAR; 202 WS; 186 CAWS; 84 CAWS+
Jack Morris 77—3824.0 IP; 105 ERA+; 44.0 pWAR; 222 WS; 185 CAWS; 84 CAWS+
Reference: Jim Palmer 126—3948.1 IP; 125 ERA+; 67.5 pWAR; 307 WS; 264 CAWS; 120 CAWS+
Last man in HOS: Orel Hershiser 101—3130.1 IP; 112 ERA+; 51.3 pWAR; 206 WS; 175 CAWS; 80 CAWS+

Relievers
Rollie Fingers 53—944 G; 1701.1 IP; 341 SV: 120 ERA+; 25.1 pWAR; 187 WS; 157 CAWS; 98 CAWS+
Rich Gossage 90—1002 G; 1809.1 IP; 310 SV; 126 ERA+; 41.9 pWAR; 219 WS; 182 CAWS; 114 CAWS+
Bruce Sutter 55—661 G; 1042 IP; 300 SV; 136 ERA+; 24.6 pWAR; 161 WS; 157 CAWS; 98 CAWS+
Lee Smith 62—1022 G; 1289 IP; 478 SV; 132 ERA+; 29.4 pWAR; 193 WS; 159 CAWS; 99 CAWS+
Trevor Hoffman 63—1035 G; 1089.1 IP; 601 SV; 141 ERA+; 28.1 pWAR; 185 WS; 148 CAWS; 92 CAWS+
Reference: Hoyt Wilhelm 108—1070 G; 2254.1 IP; 228 SV; 147 ERA+; 49.8 pWAR; 253 WS; 188 CAWS; 117 CAWS+
Last man in HOS: Hoyt Wilhelm

For the final time: The challenge here is to argue for (or against) the presence in the Hall of Fame of any or all of the fifteen HOFers listed with a HOS rating of below 100. One argument is disqualified: Saying that Richard Roe doesn’t belong because John Doe, who was better, has been passed over for inclusion fails on every count to meet the terms of the challenge. The merits or demerits of the listed players, comparisons to other HOFers, the use of more detailed statistics, historical and biographical information — these and similar bases for argumentation are all welcome. Later on I’ll weigh in with some observations about what I think might be at issue regarding some of these pitchers.