Derek Jeter’s first 16 games @AnthonyMcCarron

Derek Jeter has started of so hot that I wanted to look at the first 16 games of each of his seasons:

Year   BA/ OBP/ SLG   2B   3B   HR   RBI   BB   K
2012 .411/.436/.644    5    0    4    13    4   6
2011 .219/.282/.234    1    0    0     4    6   5
2010 .333/.368/.500    3    0    3    11    3   6
2009 .290/.388/.522    4    0    4    11    5   8
2008 .277/.309/.369    2    2    0    12    2   5
2007 .324/.392/.366    3    0    0     4    6   6
2006 .350/.473/.600    5    2    2    15   14   6
2005 .350/.473/.484    4    0    1     8   13   9
2004 .209/.284/.254    3    0    0     5    5   9
2003 .309/.347/.485    4    1    2     7    4  12
2002 .271/.329/.386    2    0    2    10    6  10
2001 .306/.370/.375    3    1    0    10    8   6
2000 .304/.360/.464    3    1    2     8    5  14
1999 .424/.541/.881    4    4    5    14   13   7
1998 .257/.303/.386    3    0    2     8    5  16
1997 .338/.456/.492    3    2    1     7   13  15
1996 .314/.435/.412    0    1    1     8    9  12

As you can see for yourself, other than a higher OBP in 2005 and 2006, Jeter’s off to his best start since 1999. It’s also noteworthy, though, that his walk rate is quite low–his excellent SLG so far could be a small-sample-size hiccup from Jeter being less patient, putting the ball in play more, and getting a few more extra-base hits.

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Raphy

12 years ago

With his 2 hits tonight, Jeter has become the 4th player (since 1918) of at least 37 years of age to post 10 multiple hit games in his team’s first 17.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/sgviu (not updated for tonight)

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Less patient than what?
His walk rate is roughly what it has been in 12 of the 16 seasons you’ve listed.

2001 is missing from the above chart.
His slashes that year were:

.306 .370 .375

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

This has been corrected, thanks. In a few years, such as 2003 and 2001, you have to look at a lot more than the first 16 Yankee games of the year to find Jeter’s first 16.

MikeD

12 years ago

I doubt his walk rate means much of anything right now. Small sample size. Jeter has good command of the strikezone, but is aggressive, especially when he is hitting well. He is not a power hitter, so pitchers will come right after him less concerned that he’ll hit a HR compared to the hitters behind him, and they also don’t want to walk him to set up a big inning. Jeter knows this and is quite comfortable going after the cripple pitch he often gets leading off the game or an inning. Over his seventeen year career, Jeter has triple… Read more »

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

My point about his walk rate (and this is somewhat in reply to Voomo above as well) is that in past years with really good numbers, such as 05 06 and 99, he’s had a high OBP thanks to high walks. Right now he has a high OBP thanks to a high BA. He won’t sustain that BA over the whole season and he’ll need to up his walk rate to compensate. Mike’s suggestion that Jeter’s simply in a hit-first phase right now seems as logical as anything.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Having watched Jeter for his whole career, I agree with Mike D. But I think it’s too early to tell anything. In six weeks, you could be writing, “since April 24, Jeter is hitting .204 with only three extra base hits”. It’s one of the things I liked best as a kid-the early season leaders printed in the daily newspaper-may not mean much, but a lot of fun to project out.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Mike L- Who says you have to be a kid to “project out” season leaders? I like this time of season, when teams have played say 16 games, because all you have to do is add a “0” to the right of a player’s season totals (or X9 for 18 games played). Jeter (17G X 9.5) projects to: 40 HR 123 RBI 133 runs 304 hits (!) look out Ichiro 57 2Bs 475 total bases (!) look out Babe Ruth Regression to the mean often takes place well into the seson. Example: I remember in 1988, Carny Lansford got off… Read more »

Artie Z

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence – my favorite prediction of all time is from the 1995 Topps Cyberstats cards. For those not familiar with the set, Topps “predicted” what some players’ final stats would have been in 1994 if the remainder of the season had been played out. What is interesting is that they have Matt Williams, who was leading the NL with 43 HRs, finishing with “only” 51 HRs (and a .239 AVG). His teammate, who “only” had 37 HRs at the time of the strike, was predicted to finish with 61 roundtrippers (and a .320 AVG and 42 SBs, making him the… Read more »

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

I can remember as a kid an older Mickey Mantle hitting the cover off the ball – or at least passing milestones (500 HR, Ott 511, Williams 521, Foxx 534)and appearing to hit the cover off the ball early in the season (probably 1967 and 1968). Obviously, at that point, Mantle was a shell of himself.

Artie Z

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

The shell of Mickey Mantle was still good enough to finish in the top 10 in OPS+. It just shows how incredible a player he was.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Since we are into age and Mantle, I have one memory from the pre-internet-pre espn age. One Saturday in the 60’s he hit a grand slam. My parents only got the NY Times (Post, News, etc were inferior newspapers that spent too much time on sports, horse racing, and had comics-horrors!!!). The Times, then as now, had a pull-out Sunday Sports section. And when our copy was delivered-the Sports Section was missing. I went through that two pounds of paper up and down, through every page, every insert, and it wasn’t there. I didn’t dare go to the candy store… Read more »

Raphy

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

@17
Mike – Its time to make up for lost opportunities:

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60812FD3459117B93C6AB178CD85F428685F9

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Raphy-cool. I’m feeling ten again. They say music memory lasts even in the very old, and even in dementia. Could we say the same about baseball?

Jimbo

12 years ago

Jeter is both the active leader in hits, and the current season leader in hits.

What is the longest any player has ever lasted into a season (post 1960 or so) while carrying both of these leads?

When was the last time a player lasted in the season as long as Jeter has while carrying both these leads?

Obviously in the first mlb season whoever led the league in hits finished the season leading both categories so earlier years of MLB history aren’t comparable.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

This is a great question. I don’t have time to research it, but I’m hoping someone else does. This is a good place to start:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/H_progress.shtml

…to find the active leader at the end of each season. Check to see if that guy led the league during the following year.

Thomas Court

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Pete Rose led the league with 140 hits in the strike shortened 1981. At that point, he had been the active leader for the previous four seasons.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Ty Cobb, the active leader at the end of 1918, led the league in hits in 1919.

Editor

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Actually, Cobb tied for the lead in Hits in 1919 with teammate Bobby Veach.

After the first game of a Sep 17 double-header, Cobb had a 10 hit lead over Veach, 180 to 170. But, Veach went on a tear, pulling ahead of Cobb by one hit on Sep 26, and extending his lead to 2 hits on Sep 27. In the final game of the year on Sep 28, Cobb had 3 hits to Veach’s one to tie his teammate for the season title.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Also, Stan Musial in 1952.

Musial passed Johnny Mize as active hits leader on Aug 24 that year.

After 5 consecutive 2-hit games, Musial pulled even with teammate Red Schoendienst on Aug 31, with 160 hits for the year, and went ahead of him on Sep 1 with yet another 2-hit game. They were tied again at 180 hits on Sep 15, and at 185 hits on Sep 21, but Musial finally pulled ahead for good with 5 hits against the Reds on Sep 23rd and 24th.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

I started to do the first part of this question last night but didn’t finish. Jeter passed Ken Griffey Jr for the active lead in hits I believe on April 30th of 2010, as his three hits that night put him past Junior for good after that. So he’s been the active leader for about two years now.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Just for fun, here are Jeter’s combined totals for his first 17 games of 1996-2012 next to his career totals, both per 162 games. I don’t see any big surprises: Stat — “17” — Career BA — .314 — .314 OBP — .387 — .383 SLG — .461 — .450 OPS — .847 — .834 PA — 760 — 745 AB — 671 — 659 H — 211 — 207 2B — 32 — 33 3B — 7 — 4 HR — 17 — 16 RBI — 91 — 80 BB — 73 — 66 SO — 93 — 110… Read more »

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

This shows that’s he’s pretty consistent in the first half of April, at least in terms of how he performs for the rest of the year. (And is further argument that he’s likely to regress to his career averages this season, of course.)

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

If Jeter regresses to his career averages for the entire season, I’ll be thrilled. He’s no Yuni Betancourt, but who could be?

Artie Z

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

JA – “reprinting” your “17” totals with his postseason numbers (152 games) next to it instead of career averages: Stat — “17″ — Postseason BA — .314 — .307 OBP — .387 — .374 SLG — .461 — .465 OPS — .847 — .839 PA — 760 — 704 AB — 671 — 623 H — 211 — 191 2B — 32 — 31 3B — 7 — 4 HR — 17 — 20 RBI — 91 — 59 BB — 73 — 64 SO — 93 — 125 SH — 5 — 8 SF — 3 — 4 IBB… Read more »

Mike L

12 years ago

Since I have to make my obligatory Bill James reference, here’s his Jeter comment from his 1995 Player Ratings Guide. “Baseball America’s 1994 Minor League Player of The Year..a 20 year old right handed hitter, has every skill except power, and may develop that”. James also rated the 19 year old A-Rod. “called to the majors after tearing through the Midwest and Southern leagues, but was over matched…He has the range and the arm to be a Gold Glove shortstop once he learns how-what he will hit is anybody’s guess.”

As my kids say, LOL

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

#20/ Artie Z –

Interestingly, if we project Matt Williams’ 1994 season out from 43 HR/115 games, we get… about 61 HR.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Speaking of guys with a lot of career hits, Juan Pierre is leading the Phils in BA and OBP. He has a incredible 2 walks thus far this year and is one hit off the team lead. All that despite playing part time the first 2 weeks of the season. Seriously though, I’d much rather be the Phils than the Mets or Marlins right now.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Breaking News, and Maybe, Just Maybe, Lesson Learned:

You never, ever, ever trade away a once-in-a-generation hitting prospect for a young pitcher.

Shping

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Yeah, big news, but I dont know about the lesson.

Don’t you think there’s an equal amount of good/bad luck on both sides?

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo, you have my sympathy. But if Jesus Montero is a once-in-a-generation prospect, the generations must be getting even shorter than I thought in my accelerating middle age.

In 2 seasons at AAA, Montero hit .289 with an .843 OPS and more than twice as many Ks as walks. Yeah, he was young for that league, and he looked like a MAN with the Yanks last year. But a top-notch lineup sometimes make a young hitter better than he really is. Meanwhile, he’s not yet making Mariners fans forget Willie Horton, much less Edgar Martinez.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yeah, I know.
But it is fun to believe the hype sometimes.
And also fun to get to watch a young player develop.
I’d rather be watching Montero try to figure it out than watch Raul Ibanez do anything (good or bad).

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I wonder if Roy Oswalt’s phone was been ringing off the hook???

Mike L

12 years ago

Bad luck or taken by Seattle the result is the same. Very bad for the Yankees. Maybe it’s just not worth investing in pitchers except with money.

Mike L

12 years ago

Im with voomo. Yankees come in for a lot of criticism but I always get excited more when it’s a home grown player. Guys like Bernie jeter pettite posada Rivera and cano are revelations as they go from prospects to stars. Developing is more fun than trading or buying.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Mike L,

Well, I guess that depends on where a team acquires a player on his “success cycle”. For example, David Ortiz had been with the Twins for six years and was already 27 when the Red Sox acquired him, but I believe almost everyone thinks of him only as a Red Sox player, because he wasn’t _DAVID ORTIZ!_ until after he came to the Red Sox and became a feared power hitter.

I do agree with your general point.