Matt Kemp Is Off to One of the Best Power Starts Ever |

Led by their marquee slugger Matt Kemp, the Dodgers have the best record in baseball 10 games into the season. Kemp’s 6 HR place him among the top 10 seasons all-time for HR in the first 10 team games of the season.

After the jump, I’ll look at what those fast power starts portended for the players’ seasons.

Here’s the list of seasons with the most HR in the first 10 games of a team’s season. Note that the stats shown are for only the games in which the player homered. The # Matching column indicates how many of those games each player had.

Rk	Player	Year	#Matching		PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR 6	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Luis Gonzalez	2001	7	Ind. Games	32	31	12	0	0	9	15	1	6	.387	.406	1.258	1.664
2	Mike Schmidt	1976	6	Ind. Games	28	26	10	0	0	9	16	1	6	.385	.429	1.423	1.852
3	Alex Rodriguez	2007	6	Ind. Games	30	24	9	1	0	7	15	6	5	.375	.500	1.292	1.792
4	Chris Shelton	2006	5	Ind. Games	22	20	12	2	0	7	10	1	3	.600	.636	1.750	2.386
5	Larry Walker	1997	5	Ind. Games	23	19	11	2	0	7	13	4	5	.579	.652	1.789	2.442
6	Dave Kingman	1976	5	Ind. Games	24	23	9	2	0	7	15	0	6	.391	.417	1.391	1.808
7	Willie Mays	1964	6	Ind. Games	26	23	12	0	0	7	15	3	0	.522	.577	1.435	2.012
8	Johnny Mize	1947	5	Ind. Games	21	18	8	0	0	7	12	3	0	.444	.524	1.611	2.135
9	Matt Kemp	2012	5	Ind. Games	23	19	10	0	0	6	12	4	1	.526	.609	1.474	2.082
10	Chase Utley	2010	5	Ind. Games	24	19	8	0	0	6	10	5	3	.421	.542	1.368	1.910
11	Nelson Cruz	2010	6	Ind. Games	26	24	10	1	1	6	11	1	5	.417	.462	1.292	1.753
12	Lance Berkman	2006	5	Ind. Games	24	19	9	0	0	6	13	4	2	.474	.542	1.421	1.963
13	Travis Hafner	2006	5	Ind. Games	24	18	12	1	0	6	8	6	1	.667	.750	1.722	2.472
14	Jim Thome	2006	6	Ind. Games	26	20	9	2	0	6	9	5	3	.450	.577	1.450	2.027
15	Miguel Cabrera	2004	5	Ind. Games	21	19	8	0	0	6	8	2	3	.421	.476	1.368	1.845
16	Jermaine Dye	2004	5	Ind. Games	21	21	7	1	0	6	10	0	5	.333	.333	1.238	1.571
17	Larry Walker	2001	6	Ind. Games	26	24	11	0	1	6	14	0	4	.458	.462	1.292	1.753
18	Jeromy Burnitz	1998	5	Ind. Games	23	16	9	1	0	6	14	7	3	.563	.696	1.750	2.446
19	Ken Griffey	1997	5	Ind. Games	24	19	9	1	0	6	12	4	3	.474	.583	1.474	2.057
20	Dante Bichette	1994	5	Ind. Games	25	23	13	5	0	6	13	2	3	.565	.600	1.565	2.165
21	Carlos Delgado	1994	5	Ind. Games	23	18	8	0	0	6	12	5	6	.444	.565	1.444	2.010
22	Kevin Mitchell	1991	5	Ind. Games	20	16	9	0	0	6	11	3	1	.563	.650	1.688	2.338
23	Dale Murphy	1985	6	Ind. Games	25	23	11	2	0	6	13	2	1	.478	.520	1.348	1.868
24	Jim Presley	1985	6	Ind. Games	23	20	10	2	0	6	13	2	3	.500	.522	1.500	2.022
25	Tony Armas	1981	5	Ind. Games	22	20	10	1	0	6	13	2	3	.500	.545	1.450	1.995
26	Fred Lynn	1979	5	Ind. Games	24	19	7	0	0	6	11	5	1	.368	.500	1.316	1.816
27	Reggie Jackson	1974	4	Ind. Games	18	17	11	2	0	6	13	1	2	.647	.667	1.824	2.490
28	Graig Nettles	1974	4	Ind. Games	19	17	8	0	0	6	10	2	4	.471	.526	1.529	2.056
29	Jim Wynn	1973	5	Ind. Games	25	24	11	0	1	6	8	1	6	.458	.480	1.292	1.772
30	Willie Stargell	1971	4	Ind. Games	19	17	9	0	0	6	8	2	4	.529	.579	1.588	2.167
31	Willie McCovey	1969	5	Ind. Games	21	17	9	3	0	6	10	4	0	.529	.619	1.765	2.384
32	Wally Moon	1961	5	Ind. Games	19	16	9	0	0	6	11	2	3	.563	.611	1.688	2.299
33	Ken Boyer	1960	5	Ind. Games	22	17	9	1	1	6	12	4	2	.529	.591	1.765	2.356
34	Don Demeter	1959	4	Ind. Games	19	17	10	1	0	6	12	0	3	.588	.588	1.706	2.294
35	Eddie Mathews	1959	5	Ind. Games	24	21	8	1	0	6	11	3	2	.381	.458	1.286	1.744
36	Eddie Mathews	1953	4	Ind. Games	19	16	8	1	0	6	14	3	1	.500	.579	1.688	2.266
37	Ken Keltner	1948	4	Ind. Games	21	20	7	0	0	6	13	1	3	.350	.381	1.250	1.631
38	Bill Terry	1932	4	Ind. Games	23	20	9	0	1	6	15	3	1	.450	.522	1.450	1.972
39	Gabby Hartnett	1925	5	Ind. Games	21	19	9	1	0	6	13	2	0	.474	.524	1.474	1.997

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/16/2012.

And, here’s how those seasons turned out, sorted by bWAR.

Player	OPS+	bWAR	Year	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Willie Mays	172	10.2	1964	SFG	157	665	578	121	171	21	47	111	0.296	0.383	0.607
Alex Rodriguez	176	9.9	2007	NYY	158	708	583	143	183	31	54	156	0.314	0.422	0.645
Ken Griffey	165	9.4	1997	SEA	157	704	608	125	185	34	56	147	0.304	0.382	0.646
Larry Walker	178	9.0	1997	COL	153	664	568	143	208	46	49	130	0.366	0.452	0.720
Willie McCovey	209	8.9	1969	SFG	149	623	491	101	157	26	45	126	0.320	0.453	0.656
Eddie Mathews	171	8.9	1953	MLN	157	681	579	110	175	31	47	135	0.302	0.406	0.627
Mike Schmidt	150	8.5	1976	PHI	160	705	584	112	153	31	38	107	0.262	0.376	0.524
Fred Lynn	176	8.4	1979	BOS	147	622	531	116	177	42	39	122	0.333	0.423	0.637
Willie Stargell	185	8.1	1971	PIT	141	606	511	104	151	26	48	125	0.295	0.398	0.628
Eddie Mathews	167	7.8	1959	MLN	148	682	594	118	182	16	46	114	0.306	0.390	0.593
Luis Gonzalez	174	7.6	2001	ARI	162	728	609	128	198	36	57	142	0.325	0.429	0.688
Bill Terry	156	7.6	1932	NYG	154	677	643	124	225	42	28	117	0.350	0.382	0.580
Larry Walker	160	7.4	2001	COL	142	601	497	107	174	35	38	123	0.350	0.449	0.662
Johnny Mize	156	7.3	1947	NYG	154	664	586	137	177	26	51	138	0.302	0.384	0.614
Reggie Jackson	166	6.7	1974	OAK	148	604	506	90	146	25	29	93	0.289	0.391	0.514
Ken Keltner	146	6.2	1948	CLE	153	656	558	91	166	24	31	119	0.297	0.395	0.522
Ken Boyer	143	6.2	1960	STL	151	616	552	95	168	26	32	97	0.304	0.370	0.562
Travis Hafner	181	5.9	2006	CLE	129	564	454	100	140	31	42	117	0.308	0.439	0.659
Lance Berkman	163	5.3	2006	HOU	152	646	536	95	169	29	45	136	0.315	0.420	0.621
Dale Murphy	152	5.3	1985	ATL	162	712	616	118	185	32	37	111	0.300	0.388	0.539
Jim Thome	155	4.6	2006	CHW	143	610	490	108	141	26	42	109	0.288	0.416	0.598
Chase Utley	123	4.6	2010	PHI	115	511	425	75	117	20	16	65	0.275	0.387	0.445
Nelson Cruz	146	4.3	2010	TEX	108	445	399	60	127	31	22	78	0.318	0.374	0.576
Graig Nettles	107	4.2	1974	NYY	155	638	566	74	139	21	22	75	0.246	0.316	0.403
Tony Armas	125	4.1	1981	OAK	109	462	440	51	115	24	22	76	0.261	0.294	0.480
Wally Moon	141	3.4	1961	LAD	134	561	463	79	152	25	17	88	0.328	0.434	0.505
Jeromy Burnitz	118	3.3	1998	MIL	161	691	609	92	160	28	38	125	0.263	0.339	0.499
Miguel Cabrera	130	3.1	2004	FLA	160	685	603	101	177	31	33	112	0.294	0.366	0.512
Dave Kingman	128	2.9	1976	NYM	123	510	474	70	113	14	37	86	0.238	0.286	0.506
Jim Wynn	107	2.9	1973	HOU	139	581	481	90	106	14	20	55	0.220	0.347	0.395
Gabby Hartnett	126	2.6	1925	CHC	117	443	398	61	115	28	24	67	0.289	0.351	0.555
Kevin Mitchell	141	2.5	1991	SFG	113	423	371	52	95	13	27	69	0.256	0.338	0.515
Jim Presley	118	1.9	1985	SEA	155	625	570	71	157	33	28	84	0.275	0.324	0.484
Chris Shelton	106	1.6	2006	DET	115	412	373	50	102	16	16	47	0.273	0.340	0.466
Jermaine Dye	105	1.6	2004	OAK	137	590	532	87	141	29	23	80	0.265	0.329	0.464
Don Demeter	86	0.9	1959	LAD	139	401	371	55	95	11	18	70	0.256	0.294	0.437
Dante Bichette	111	0.3	1994	COL	116	509	484	74	147	33	27	95	0.304	0.334	0.548
Carlos Delgado	103	-0.7	1994	TOR	43	159	130	17	28	2	9	24	0.215	0.352	0.438

So, not unsurprisingly, the better players did better for the whole season. Nevertheless, it is a bit surprising to me how consistently strong those seasons were, and therefore how reliable a predictor the 10 game performance appears to be.

Here are the distribution moments.

	bWAR	OPS+	HR	RBI	SLG
Maximum	10.2	209	57	156	0.720
Top Quartile	7.95	169	45	125	0.628
Median	5.3	148	35	110	0.552
Mean	5.3	145	34	102	0.554
Bottom Quartile	2.9	121	23.5	77	0.492
Minimum	-0.7	86	9	24	0.395

Some notes:

Over half of these seasons are among the players’ top 3 in OPS+

Best OPS+ season: Willie McCovey, Travis Hafner, Larry Walker, Alex Rodriguez, Fred Lynn, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Keltner, Nelson Cruz, Ken Boyer, Wally Moon, Jim Presley
2nd or 3rd best OPS+ season: Willie Stargell, Eddie Matthews, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey, Lance Berkman, Larry Walker, Bill Terry, Dale Murphy, Tony Armas, Chris Shelton

These players appeared in at least 90% of their team’s games in 24 of the 38 seasons, and in 75% of games in 33 of the 38 seasons.
Delgado’s 6 HR came in career games 3 through 11. Dino Restelli leads with 6 HR in the first 10 games of a career followed by Delgado and six others with 5 HR.

So, starting strong right out of the gate does seem to correlate well with great players, a great season and staying healthy.

I don’t know about you but I’m expecting a big season from Matt Kemp (not that I wouldn’t have expected this anyway).

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Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Major drawback – the stats listed here all seem to be just for the games in which a player hit a HR through his first ten games, instead of all ten games. I clicked on Kemp’s name, and all of his 2012 counting stats (except HR) are less than on his B-R page.

First tip-off: 10 full games should normally lead to about 40 PA and 35 AB. All these players are short of that.

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Doug

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Good observation, Lawrence. That is P-I, though.

I’ll add an advisory to that effect.

Hartvig

I have to admit I didn’t catch that so those OPS numbers were pretty eye-popping. Funny thing is I DID notice how few strikeouts some of the players had and even looked to see how many plate appearances there were for several. Even so, quite a start he is off to. I would say that barring injury it’s a pretty safe bet that he will exceed that 5.3 WAR that seems to be the mid-point by a fair margin.

Richard Chester

The second sentence of the third paragragh (just to the right of the photo) states that the stats are only for the games in which the player homered.

JDV

I remember Carlos Delgado’s tear in 1994. He had been a huge prospect and was making the jump from AA. But within a month he was at .215 and was sent back down…prematurely, I think. Granted they had Olerud (1B) and Molitor (DH), but Delgado was playing LF, and they went the rest of the way platooning Mike Huff and Darnell Coles out there. Delgado spent the rest of ’94 and most of ’95 crushing AAA pitching before sticking with the Jays in ’96. Losing those two seasons almost certainly kept him from 500 HR…probably 525.

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John Autin

Reply to JDV

In his first 12 starts of ’94, Delgado had 8 HRs … and 5 singles.

When you wrote about Delgado being a rookie it brought Chris Shelton to mind- I missed him on my first look at the list. Whoever had him in the fantasy league I was in at the time was trying desperately to trade him to me before he cooled off- the asking price started off on something of the order of even up for Barry Bonds (or something almost equally ridiculous) and then started dropping more and more as the weeks passed. If he ever did manage to move him it must have been for pretty much market value and it… Read more »

kds

A Marquis is a nobleman ranked below a Duke and above an Earl. Since we have no such in the US I don’t think Kemp qualifies. A marquee is a roofed covering over the front door, often with signage space as at a theater. A marquee name is a name up for advertising. Kemp clearly qualifies to have his name up in lights.

Reply to kds

Duly noted and corrected.

Actually, there have been Dukes in baseball, the most famous one a former Dodger hero who had a 10 game start in 1955 similar to Kemp’s.
4 HR, 13 RBI, 10 BB, .361/.500/.778

BryanM

Delgado was being converted from a catcher and his play in LF left a lot to be desired. BR has him at a seasonal pace of -33 runs defensively. He was sent down as much to learn a position where the Jays could use him as anything. They finally moved Olerud to make room for him at first a couple years later

Reply to BryanM

That plus he stopped hitting. After hitting his 8th homerun on April 19, Delgado went 15-82 with 2 doubles and 1 home run before being sent down. He got another chance in early ’95 and went 4-26 with 1 double and 1 homerun and was sent down again.