Don’t count me among those who think Don Mattingly rode too long with Clayton Kershaw in this NLDS opener. If there’s a career split that shows Kershaw vulnerable in that 7th-inning situation, I can’t find it:

• vs. LHBs: .187 BA, .559 OPS, 37% Ks
• Pitch 101+: .213 BA, .609 OPS, 29% Ks
• 4th PA for batter: .217 BA, .531 OPS
• Innings 7-9: .201 BA, .541 OPS
• 2 outs and RISP: .155 BA, .492 OPS, 32% Ks
• Bases loaded and 2 outs: 5 for 32, 15 Ks, 2 walks

Those mind-boggling numbers are all among the best ever logged by starters. You can still argue that no starter should be left in for that situation — go-ahead runs aboard, 21 pitches in the inning, to face a good hitter who homered in his last trip. But if there’s anyone you’re leaving in, it’s Kershaw.

This wasn’t Grady Little going down with the ship of 31-year-old Pedro Martinez, in the 8th inning of 2003 ALCS game seven. As great as Pedro was that year, he’d lasted past the 7th just five times in 29 starts, showing a marked decline after the middle innings. That fateful night, he reached 115 pitches after two straight two-strike hits made it 5-3 Boston, and 118 after an 0-2 double put the tying runs aboard with one out. And he’d made 21 pitches in the 7th, to strand the tying runs. Grady ignored a lot of alarm bells.

This was 26-year-old Clayton Kershaw, in the 7th inning. He’d gone at least seven in all but five games this year, and eight or more in 15 of 27. He’d shown no tendency to weaken late. Those 21 pitches in the 7th before Carpenter, with no prior stressful innings, and 102 for the game — those doesn’t frighten me. And though he’d made some bad ones in the inning, he looked sharp whiffing Oscar Taveras for the second out. I would have left him in.

Kershaw got 0-and-2 on Carpenter, but the leadoff man put up a great fight, spoiling three before he won the battle. It happens, even to the best.

But here’s where I do fault Mattingly, big-time: Carpenter’s double only put the Cards ahead by one, with two out and a man on second for rookie Randal Grichuk, and Matt Holliday on deck. The Dodgers still had three innings left to bat, and a generic 29% Win Expectancy. The whole lineup would get another chance; they’d gone 12 for 27 already, and there’s Justin Turner on the bench (12 for 30 in the pinch this year). It’s still a huge moment in the game: Strand that runner, and you’re right back in it.

So Donnie turns to … rookie Pedro Baez?

The Dodgers don’t have a deep set-up corps, but I’m still surprised that Baez is even on the roster. Yeah, he had a 2.63 ERA in 24 innings — but with a sub-par 20% K rate and 3 HRs allowed. He’s a converted infielder, with 100 mediocre innings in the minors. Granting that no skipper alive would use his closer in this spot — never mind Kenley Jansen’s career 45% K rate against righties — that still leaves veterans J.P. Howell and Brandon League. Howell’s a southpaw, but very good vs. RHBs the last two years, and a strong postseason record. And he was already warmed up.

But Baez came in, and walked Grichuk. Now the moment’s even bigger: Two on for Holliday, an extra-base-hit machine. A long hit makes the deficit three runs or more. With all that’s happened in the inning, the emotional calculus of the raw rookie against the seasoned star feels like a massive mismatch. After a walk, Baez is bound to feel he has to get ahead. But Holliday lives for first-pitch fastballs; 24% of his career homers were on the first pitch, the second-highest rate of 37 actives with 200+ HRs. A first-pitch fastball here just has to be on target. And for this, you still trust the guy who only turned to pitching last year, and logged a a 1.45 WHIP in the minors, with 10 HRs in 100 IP? Wow.

The Dodgers would score three more runs, and not because Mike Matheny let up with a 10-6 lead; he played his LOOGY on Adrian Gonzalez at the first whisper of a threat, but that one went against form. (Lefties were 7 for 75 off Randy Choate this year, and Gonzalez hit just .201 off southpaws.) They got one off closer Trevor Rosenthal, but the extra cushion proved vital. If Mattingly had played the post-Kershaw 7th like the crucial spot it still was, it might have been a different ballgame.

What do you think — about this game, or any of the thrillers we’ve already seen in just October’s first week?

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(All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.)