Game Notes for August 15-21

Game Notes is running on fumes … passed our innings limit … can’t find that sharp-biting slider. But here’s what we’ve got; hit it if you can!

 

THURSDAY 8/21

@TBR 1, DET 0 — In his return to Tampa, David Price overcame his emotions and came pretty close to perfection, but it wasn’t enough for a win. After a 1st-inning error by SS Eugenio Suarez came a well-placed liner by Brandon Guyer, splitting the right-center seam on the rug for a triple. And although Price set down the last 23 Rays for a one-hitter, Alex Cobb and his bullpen were just as good in the clinches. Torii Hunter doubled to start the 7th, and a walk and wild pitch put Tigers on third and second with one out. But Cobb whiffed J.D. Martinez for the third time, and Nick Castellanos flied out to deep center. Suarez got two of Detroit’s four hits, including a double off Brad Boxberger with one out in the 8th. Rajai Davis looped one to right-center that was snared on a run-saving dive by Kevin Kiermaier, a defensive replacement that inning, and then Boxberger mowed down Ian Kinsler. Miguel Cabrera froze a rope off the LF wall in the 9th, but he had to stop at first base, and Jake McGee kept him right there as he closed it out.

  • It’s the first one-hit CG loss by a Tiger in searchable history, back to 1914. The last one in MLB was by Anthony Reyes in 2006. Only one other Tiger lost while yielding one hit in a start of 5+ innings. No other Tiger has lost a start with just two baserunners in 5+ IP.
  • Price’s 87 Game Score is also the best in a regulation Detroit loss, at least since 1914. The last one that good in MLB came in 2012, when James Shields fanned 15 in his Tampa swan-song, losing the dual 2-hitter on a Chris Davis solo. (That’s also the last CG loss with just two baserunners.)
  • First CG loss on one unearned run since 2011.
  • For the Rays, the first win ever with fewer than three hits or three baserunners.
  • Since 1914, only seven other wins with just two baserunners and no home runs — in 1990, 1966, 1965, and four dead-ball contests, one of them rain-shortened. In the ’66 game, Larry Dierker perfecto’d the Mets for 8 innings, then lost on a double and single in the 9th. The ’65 game was Sandy’s perfecto, with the Dodgers getting one hit and one walk off Bob Hendley (run scored on SB+error). Perhaps the most painful: In 1918, Philly’s Brad Hogg twirled a 9-hit, 3-walk shutout, while Wilbur Cooper lost on one hit and an unearned run.

@LAD 2, SDP 1 — For seven innings, Tyson Ross had outgunned Clayton Kershaw, bidding to deal the southpaw his first back-to-back losses since April of last year. Only three Dodgers had reached base, and two were removed by Rene Rivera, thwarting larcenous plans of Dee Gordon and Carl Crawford. The Padres hadn’t done much to Kershaw, who lost his no-hitter when Ross singled with two out in the 6th. But they scraped up a run in the 7th, on a single, a walk, a long flyout and Rivera’s bingle. Ross seized that edge and plowed through the heart of LA’s order, fanning Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Kershaw zipped through the 8th, reaching 10 Ks for the 5th time this year. Then Crawford legged out an infield hit, and Justin Turner stepped in. Ross looked strong; he had thrown just 77 pitches. But he hung a 1-and-0 slider; Turner pounced, and the bubbles flew. Ross was crestfallen, and he walked A.J. Ellis. He shook it off and finished strong, punching out Gordon and Andre Ethier. But all he could do was watch as Kenley Jansen put the Friars to bed, handing Kershaw a hard-earned win, his 15th.

  • Kershaw’s last 17 starts: 1.37 ERA (20 runs in 131 IP), 156 Ks and 17 walks.
  • Take Gordon’s & Crawford’s combined 76-17 in thefts, add Ross’s 27-6 — that’s fine work by Rivera, in a scoreless game.

@WSN 1, ARI 0 — Well, why not? The Nats had won every which way during this streak, so why not a two-base throwing error, to bail out their 0-13 with RISP, redeem the best start this half by Gio Gonzalez, and tie the Washington record of 10 wins in a row? Denard Span set it up with a one-out single and his 27th steal, his three times on base boosting his two-month hot streak to a .365 BA and .427 OBP. Anthony Rendon busted for first on his high chop to third, pressuring Jordan Pacheco into a bad throw.

  • It’s the 11th walk-off from 0-0 this year, the first of the second half.
  • The last walk-off on an error from 0-0 came in late 2010, an 11th-inning bobble by RF Ryan Spilborghs.
  • Washington is 20-7 vs. the NL West, 46-19 against losing teams (27-34 against winners).

LAA 2, @BOS 0 — After the expected sad news that Garrett Richards was done for the year, Matt Shoemaker lifted the Angels’ spirits and fortunes with a spot-on impression of his fallen comrade, completing a four-game Fenway sweep. After plunking Brock Holt to start the 1st, Shoemaker struck out the side, and spun a thread of 20 straight outs, the no-hitter broken in the home 7th by a Will Middlebrooks double. Kole Calhoun sparked the offense — a year-long theme, stressed lately as LA’s power core sputters. He started the game with a hit, scoring on Josh Hamilton’s other-way double, and drove one home in the 7th, so that the lead wouldn’t hang on each Shoemaker pitch, along with the no-no. Shoemaker lasted until issuing his first walk with two out in the 8th, finishing with nine strikeouts and an 85 Game Score that just topped a Richards shutout for the best by an Angel this year. Mike Morin cleaned up the frame (the rookie has stranded 25 of 30), and Jason Grilli notched his first LA save.

  • Middlebrooks had come on when Yoenis Cespedes left with a family emergency. So it’s the first Boston game with no hits by a starter since Carl Everett’s pinch-hit spoiled Mike Mussina’s perfect game in the last instant.
  • The last visiting team to sweep four in Fenway and yield 3 runs or less in each was the 1991 Twins.
  • In the second half, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Hamilton have combined for a .238 BA and .723 OPS, but the Halos have gone 19-13 thanks to a 2.90 team ERA.

@NYY 3, HOU 0 — We’re not done with mound gems yet … Brandon McCarthy salvaged the series finale with a 4-hit shutout, fanning eight with no other baserunners. In both the 4th and the 7th, Houston got two into scoring position, on a single and double. A comebacker ended the first threat. The next one was twice the challenge, coming with one out, but McCarthy got a strikeout of Jon Singleton and a flyball from Carlos Corporan.

  • McCarthy’s 87 Game Score tied New York’s best in the last nine years, including a near-identical 4-hitter this year by Masahiro Tanaka. Randy Johnson had an 89 Game Score in 2005; their last two of 90+ (and five of their last six) came from Mike Mussina during 2001-03.
  • McCarthy has four career shutouts, with four different teams. Something odd from his first one, for Texas in 2009: Eight of nine Rangers in that game are still MLB regulars, while just two of thirteen Astros are still in the majors.
  • Second dual CG in the new Stadium, not counting shortened affairs.

@MIN 4, CLE 1 — Phil Hughes bested Corey Kluber and won his 4th straight start, yielding one run in each. Trevor Plouffe’s tiebreaking double in the 6th hung a third run on Kluber for the first time in his last seven outings. Cleveland got four singles and a Zach Walters homer during Hughes’s seven stanzas (no walks, natch), and no at-bats with RISP — thanks in part to a bad risk and a great throw by Oswaldo Arcia.

  • Hughes’s 15th straight start with no more than one walk — longest in MLB since Cliff Lee closed out 2012 with 17 in a row. His 9.87 K/W ratio would be the 4th-best ever, but just #2 in the AL this year — Hisashi Iwakuma sits at 10.0.
  • Hughes began the day with a 2.61 FIP, tied for 5th among qualifiers. Oh, how we scoffed at the contract he landed last winter! — at least, I did. Three years and $24 million, for a guy with a career 4.53 ERA? HA! Now, Fangraphs has him 5th in WAR, right behind Kershaw, ahead of Scherzer and Sale.

Meanwhile, the Twins’ most promising position players from last year, Arcia and Brian Dozier, have stalled. Arcia, who hit about .320/.980 across the top two farm levels, logged a 101 OPS+ in 97 games last year — a solid debut at age 22. But he hasn’t stepped forward, with a 107 OPS+ and another bad K/W ratio. Dozier last year showed a power/speed blend and strong defense at second, good for a 99 OPS+ and 3.8 WAR in his first full year. Seven homers this April fueled an 18-HR first half and talk of a breakout, but a second-half slump has him at .233 BA, 109 OPS+, and 3.8 WAR — progress, but not the hoped-for leap at age 27.

With former 1st-rounder Aaron Hicks so far a bust above Double-A, and no random jackpots from the mid-20s veteran/suspect corps (Parmelee, Florimon, Plouffe), the best developments in this year’s lineup have been Eduardo Escobar, who’s been a league-average shortstop at age 25; the versatile Danny Santana, whose .312 BA and 126 OPS+ are better than anything he showed in the minors; and 1B/DH Kennys Vargas, whose promising August debut rests on a .353 BAbip. The offense has risen this year, from 13th in the AL to about average. But some of that comes from a surprise .302 BA by Kurt Suzuki, a 30-year-old catcher whom they extended rather than cash at the top of his market. Joe Mauer’s move to first base hasn’t kept him healthy, and he’s had an off year at bat. And the super-prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano both lost all or most of this year to injury, with Buxton hitting .240 in 30 games at high-A. It looks like the Twins are still at least two years away from contending.

ATL 8, @CIN 0 — A mere six scoreless frames makes Julio Teheran seem like a slacker on this day of dealing, but there was no point going on after his mates routed the collapsed Reds, racing ahead 8-0 by the 5th. And especially not with the mood turning chippy, the teams trading first-batter plunkings after hapless David Holmberg hit a pair, including Teheran in the 5-run 3rd — the first Atlanta pitcher nicked in over two years.

  • The Bravos have won all four games in this season series, yielding 5 runs and a .180 BA.
  • Holmberg’s two starts this year each lasted 2.2 innings and earned a 22 Game Score. Counting last year’s debut, he’s the first pitcher since 1998 to begin a career with three starts of less than 4 IP and at least 3 runs. But Ryan Dempster got it together, eventually, and maybe Holmberg will, too.

SFG 5, @CHC 3 — The Giants fell short in the suspended game, but Madison Bumgarner got over a rocky beginning to clamp down the free-swinging Cubs, with a season-high 12 Ks and one walk over seven. Buster Posey had a shot at the second known cycle by a Giants catcher, but he settled for two bases in his final trip, so Harry Danning still stands alone. (Bengie Molina got his cycle about two weeks after the Giants dealt him to Texas, with the last homer and triple of his career.)

  • One other Giants catcher had 4-for-4 or better with at least one homer and three extra base hits.
  • A record you won’t find on a Javier Baez rookie card: Fastest to a golden sombrero hat trick — three games of 4 Ks within his first 17. Pitcher Johnny Broaca held the old speed record, donning his third chapeau in his 19th game. The non-pitcher mark was already broken twice this year — George Springer in game #50, and Danny Santana in game 47. Baez has fanned 30 times in 74 trips, tying ex-Cub Brett Jackson for the shortest route to 30 Ks (by games).
  • At least he can’t touch Austin Jackson, who whiffed in each of his first 19 games. And in the race to 10 two-strikeout games, Baez fell a game shy of Giancarlo Stanton, who did that in 16 games, hitting .213 with one homer, and 29 Ks in 68 trips; for the rest of his rookie year, Stanton hit .268/.882, with 21 HRs in 84 games. So let’s not rush to judgment; just enjoy the lakefront breeze.
  • I wouldn’t make too much of Bumgarner’s huge home/away split this year, as he’s gone back and forth in recent years. Still, out of 11 Giants with 500 total innings since AT&T park opened in 2000, only Bumgarner has a worse ERA at home than away (3.26/2.96); the others combined for a 3.57/4.25 split. He does get the HR-damping benefit of his home park (HR rate 1.8% at home, 2.4% away), but he yields more hits and walks at home. Most damaging, although maybe random, he’s fared much worse at home with two or more runners on — .296 BA/.805 OPS, vs. .251/.629 away, both in about 200 PAs.
  • Bumgarner logged this season’s 25th start of 12+ Ks and one walk or less — more than all such games in the last 25 years before expansion (1936-60). The record of 29 was set last year. This year’s 105 starts of 10+ Ks and one walk or less is two off the 2012 record, and more than the first 27 years of the live-ball era (1920-46).

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WEDNESDAY 8/20

LAA 8, @BOS 3 — Garrett Richards might be the least replaceable Angel. Jered Weaver has been mediocre, posting career-worst ERA+, HR/9, W/9 and K/W. C.J. Wilson has been far worse than that — tied for the worst qualified ERA+ in the AL, and near the bottom in FIP — and hasn’t looked any better since a 4-week DL stint, issuing 13 walks in 19 IP. Matt Shoemaker has pitched well since the Break, but his impressive 11-4 record, 8.7 K/9 and 5.2 K/W aren’t well supported by his long MiLB resume. [Prophetic words, I know.] Hector Santiago is pretty good, when his control is on, but only for 5-6 innings a night. Someone has to take Richards’s place; the Angels have only two off days remaining. And their bullpen, while producing a 2.31 ERA since the Break, has worked harder than any other, averaging almost 4 IP/G in that span.

  • David Ortiz now has eight 30-HR years as a DH, twice the number two tally (Frank Thomas).

@BAL 4, CHW 3 — Steve Pearce seemed to come out of nowhere in the first half, and was headed back that way over the last four weeks — a 5 for 44 stretch, with 17 strikeouts. When these flashes start to fade, they usually go poof — just ask Blue Jays fans about Juan Francisco. But Pearce has come back to life in the last four games — 7 for 18 with 2 HRs, 4 doubles.

DET 6, @TBR 0 — Victor Martinez bombed a 1-and-2 slam that blew the game open with two out in the 7th, helping Rick Porcello cruise to a shutout. Porcello was touched for a double in the 1st, then got 20 straight outs before the Rays notched singles in the 8th and 9th. Three shutouts of 4 hits or less in one year links Porcello to Mike Moore’s 1993 on two counts: The last Tiger with three such shutouts, and the last in MLB with three such all with 6 Ks or less. (By the way, Moore’s ERA was 5.22 that year.) Since 2003, regardless of hits allowed, only Cliff Lee also had three or more shutouts with 6 Ks or less.

  • V-Mart’s two-strike numbers are still off the chart: 66 for 208 (.317), 11 HRs, 13 doubles. In the last 10 years, among all those with at least 150 two-strike PAs, V-Mart’s year would be 1st in OPS and slugging, 2nd in BA. On 1-2 specifically, he’s 19 for 52, 3 HRs, 5 doubles.
  • No Tigers DH ever had 25 HRs & 100 RBI, nor 20 HRs & .300 BA.

Too soon for fun with tiebreaker scenarios? Suppose the Royals and Tigers tie for the AL Central, and tie Seattle for the second wild card. Detroit and KC would play one game for the division title. The loser would go to Seattle and play one game for the wild-card berth. The winner would then go to Oakland (as of now) for the actual wild-card game, whose winner would then go to the top division winner’s park to start the ALDS. Thus, after 162 games, Detroit or KC could then play four straight road games in four different parks. Doesn’t seem quite right that a team who tied for its division could wind up with a road play-in game, whereas an outright division winner gets home-field advantage in a series against a wild card with the same record. But I guess that’s done just for advance certainty on where the play-in would be held. (By the way, the dates in that link are from last year.)

@COL 5, KCR 2 — The Royals edged up 2-1 in Jorge De La Rosa’s home park. But after a two-out error, a hit, and a four-pitch walk, you just know where the next pitch is landing. Now Jorge is 19-3 in 27 home starts since last year.

  • The Royals didn’t get enough hits to bunch ’em, especially with four DPs wiping out half their baserunners.
  • LaTroy Hawkins tied Lindy McDaniel for 16th all-time with 987 career games. That’s a nice recovery from the all-time worst 6.16 ERA of his first five years (500+ IP).

@PIT 3, ATL 2 — Atlanta giveaways stopped both teams’ streaks. (You don’t suppose this was a factor?)

  • Out of 70 NL pitchers with 200+ IP since last year, Alex Wood ranks 11th with a 3.08 ERA, 10th in FIP and ERA+. And he’s been done a bit better starting than in relief.

@STL 7, CIN 3 — Jhonny Peralta’s big two-out, bags-clearing double off Johnny Cueto gave him 50 extra-base hits and .459 SLG, both best among qualified shortstops.

  • Cincy’s 2-10 skid (7 one-run losses) has effectively knocked them out of the race, 6.5 games back of a wild card with four teams to catch.

CLE 5, @MIN 0“Mr. Merriweather, you don’t know when you’re licked!” / “Licked? I’m not licked! I’m tarred and feathered, that’s all.”

A team with one good starting pitcher ought to have been licked by now. Except for Corey Kluber (13-6, 2.41), Cleveland starters have been tarred with a 23-39 record and 4.80 ERA, averaging 5.4 IP per game, giving the rotation the AL’s 3rd-worst QS%. Yet the club clings to the fringe of contention, 4.5 games back of a wild card and 5.5 in the division. Not with smoke or mirrors, but with a balanced offense (they score more than Baltimore) and an unheralded bullpen that’s rolled out a 2.83 ERA and the most innings of any team. And despite trading Justin Masterson and demoting Zach McAllister — or maybe because of those moves — their second-half SP ERA is 3.36, with some nice outings by T.J. House, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Their remaining schedule is almost ideal — 13 games against the two teams they trail in the division, and all but one of the rest against losing teams. Nick Swisher’s knee surgery could be a blessing, ending the season-long vigil for signs of life in his bat, and opening the DH spot to young Zach Walters, who’s hit 3 HRs in eight games. Licked? They’re not licked. (Here’s the quote’s source, if you care.)

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FRIDAY 8/15 through TUESDAY 8/19

Friday 8/15: Brewers 6, @Dodgers 3 — Lyle Overbay broke a tie in the 8th with a pinch-hit 3-run double, a two-out slice to the LF line that capped a 5-run inning and wiped off LA’s 2-0 lead. Five walks made Zack Greinke use 99 pitches through 5 innings, so he left when his spot led off the home half in a 1-0 game. Darwin Barney reached base to set up the second Dodgers run, each via Dee Gordon’s steal and Yasiel Puig’s single. Pedro Baez handled the 6th and 7th with minimal fuss (earning his first hold), and with his preferred setup men needing either a day off (Brandon League) or a whole new approach (Brian Wilson), Don Mattingly turned to Jamey Wright with a trio of righties ahead. But Wright’s been roughed up by his own kind this year, and after snaring a leadoff liner, he served four straight hits, with a Khris Davis double tying the contest. League came on with the bags full and whiffed Rickie Weeks, setting the stage for Overbay, and for the second guessers:

Why did League pitch to Overbay, instead of a lefty like J.P. Howell? League has seen lefties hit over .300 both this year and last; Howell has destroyed lefties; Overbay has never handled southpaws well; and Ron Roenicke had only one more RHB, the pedestrian Elian Herrera. But Mattingly didn’t like that spot for Howell, and was saving him for the 9th (Kenley Jansen had worked hard the night before) — although that frame would start with the top of the order, all powerful righties. So League threw a fastball that tailed to the heart of the plate, Overbay slashed it to the corner, and Milwaukee held onto their 2-game lead.

  • Both clubs have had 8th-inning troubles, with the NL’s worst ERAs in that frame outside of the Rockies.
  • Greinke has walked 5 twice this year, and has 25 walks in his other 23 starts. Since joining LA, his non-IBB walk rate is about half the league average without RISP, but near the norm with RISP.

Saturday 8/16: Brewers 3, @Dodgers 2 — Despite a righty-laden lineup, the Crew have hit better against RHPs — BA .258 vs. .239, OPS .728-.698. They only had 5 hits against Clayton Kershaw, who retired the first nine and the last 10, and never had two on at once. But two of those hits went the distance (as did Kershaw), including Ryan Braun’s first in 20 games. Yovani Gallardo went eight, his 4th in 5 outings of 7+ IP and one run or less.

  • First game in just over a year with both starters going 8+ in less than 100 pitches.

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Tuesday 8/19: @Brewers 6, Blue Jays 1 — Mike Fiers was at it again, and the Crew won their 5th in a row. Seven of their 10 hits were two-baggers, with Jonathan Lucroy bagging nos. 41 and 42, as he bids to be the first catcher to lead a league in doubles.

  • Fiers has three straight starts yielding 3 hits or less in 6+ IP: Fifth such streak in MLB this year (only Cueto made four); fourth ever by a Brewer, and the first since 1992 (only Teddy Higuera made four).
  • 7+ doubles from 10 hits or less has been done 33 times since 1914, with 20 in the last 20 years. The best ratios of hits to doubles were 9 for 9 (ATL ’98, the only “2B=H” greater than five), and 10 for 11 (SLB ’50, lifting Stubby Overmire over the mighty Yanks).

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Saturday 8/16: @Bravos 4, Athletics 3 — Two straight wins over Oakland gives Atlanta a chance to split a stretch of 12 games against current playoff teams, before 19 straight against have-nots.

  • Oakland is 7-9 since trading Yoenis Cespedes. Is that trade to blame? Their scoring is down from 5.0 to 3.7 R/G since the trade, while runs allowed have risen only from 3.5 to 3.7. But 16 games is way too soon to judge anything — and besides, Jon Lester has won all three of his starts.

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Monday 8/18: Bravos 7, @Pirates 3 — Atlanta’s fourth straight win pulled them within one game of a wild card, and featured an Ervin Santana pitching line you’ve never seen before: less than 6 IP and at least 11 baserunners, 3 HRs and 3 doubles, but only 3 runs. Two of those doubles led off the 6th inning, but didn’t score a run; and then Travis Snider destroyed that inning with a mystifying decision to break towards third after seeing that a line drive would be caught. The Bucs are reeling, and Clint Hurdle’s clutching at straws. I’m pretty sure that an infield alignment of Pedro Alvarez at first base (first time as a pro), Josh Harrison at short, and Brent Morel at third (or anywhere) is not the answer. Morel was hitting .251/.674 at Triple-A, which isn’t far from his career mark there; he can’t hit big-league pitching.

Tuesday 8/19: Bravos 11, @Pirates 3 — Justin Upton broke it open with a 3-run homer, as Atlanta routed Francisco Liriano for their 5th straight win, and Pittsburgh stumbled to a 7th straight defeat.

  • Upton has 5 HRs, 16 RBI in the last 12 games, hitting .321 since the Break with OPS around 1.000. With 80 RBI, he could reach 90 for the first time. That’s a bit surprising; he’s hit 3rd or 4th in two-thirds of his career games, and has never led off. But he’s struggled with RISP for the last four years, with the 2nd-biggest deficit of BA and OPS in that split vs. overall, out of 90 with at least 500 RISP chances. (Brother B.J. is in the bottom 10 of both.)

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Friday 8/15: Mariners 7, @Tigers 2 — Seattle surged ahead in the wild-card race with their 13th straight game yielding 3 runs or less, tied for the AL’s longest since 1991. (Last year’s Royals opened June with a matching streak.) The M’s gave James Paxton all he needed with 3 runs in the 2nd, putting their first five men aboard against Rick Porcello, and scratched once more in each of the next three. Torii Hunter stranded men on the corners in the 1st, after an error, and Detroit never had two on at the same time after that. Miguel Cabrera’s two doubles made his first multi-XBH game since July 10, but both went for nought with two out.

  • Saturday brings the first matchup of David Price and King Felix. The M’s are #1 at 26-15 against LH starters.
  • Did Price ever imagine that he’d have to pitch Detroit into the playoffs? They led the division by 5 games when he was traded, now trail KC by 1.5.

Saturday 8/16: @Tigers 4, Mariners 2 — Only one thing seemed certain when David Price found himself in a bases-full jam in the 8th, with one out and a 4-1 lead against the top of the order: Regardless of Austin Jackson’s .317 BA against southpaws, Detroit’s best hopes lay in whatever was left in Price’s left arm after 104 pitches. Price had faced Jackson 20 times before and rung up 10 Ks, so after working into a 1-2 advantage, he tempted him with a fadeaway change, and Jackson bit. Dustin Ackley jumped on a hittable fastball, but he got on top of it, and his hard grounder up the middle was a routine out for a well-placed shortstop. Joe Nathan still managed to bring up Seattle’s best deep threat with a chance to tie, but Kyle Seager rapped the first offer into a 3-6 DP.

  • Turning point: After Brandon Maurer worked out of a spot in the 6th to keep it 2-1, Lloyd McClendon tried to get another inning from him. Miggy mashed a one-out double, and V-Mart was passed to attack Torii Hunter, who whiffed. But Maurer served two-strike scoring hits to the righties J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos. With a bullpen crammed full of RHPs with sub-3 ERAs and .200 BAs against righties, it seems odd to stick with Maurer (career .301 vs. RHB) in a spot where a hit meant a run.
  • In his apology for flipping off home fans, Nathan went on to add: “I don’t feel like I have been struggling lately. I think it’s gone pretty well.” Oh? Here are the most charitable measuring points I can find: (1) Since the start of July, a 2.93 ERA — but a 1.57 WHIP, .353 OBP and 25% K rate. (2) Since July 20, a 1.74 ERA — but a 1.55 WHIP, .356 OBP and 22% K rate. Sure, you can find a high-WHIP stretch of 10 or 20 innings for almost any closer. But this is Nathan’s peak of effectiveness. And while it’s nice that he’s only blown one of his last nine save chances (plus punting away a tie game), the only real difference between this stretch and his disastrous first half is more runners stranded. His follow-up remarks just reinforced his residence on Fantasy Island. “I think [fans] got frustrated from the first couple months of how I pitched – rightfully so – but the thing is, for me, the last couple months recently, things have gone well. I’ve pitched well,” he said, adding, “I think a lot of it is lack of knowledge.” But we know what we know. And I say it ain’t so, Joe.

Sunday 8/17: Mariners 8, @Tigers 1 — Career-high 12th win for Chris Young, and Jim Johnson’s Detroit debut. ‘Nuff said.

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Tuesday 8/19: Tigers 8, @Rays 6 (11 inn.) — What was Joe Maddon up to? After Ian Kinsler tripled to start the 11th, Grant Balfour missed four straight to Torii Hunter (not listed as intentional). A straight pass to Miggy filled the sacks with none out for Victor Martinez, who took a five-pitch walk for the lead run. It wound up as a 3-run inning with just the one base hit. Given the state of Detroit’s bullpen, I wouldn’t take such risks in the hope of preventing one lead run. And I’d never load the sacks on purpose with Balfour on the hill; he’s now walked 35 in 48 IP, not counting IBBs.

  • Nathan got two quick outs, but still managed to face the winning run. Three straight balls after a 1-2 count kept it alive for Evan Longoria, who knocked in one, but Sean Rodriguez went down swinging.
  • Max Scherzer settled in after James Loney’s early 3-run shot (on a helluva pitch), fanning nine in 7 IP to reach 200 Ks for the third year in a row.
  • Is the AL wild-card race starting to shake out? Tigers and M’s tied for the #2 spot, Yankees 4 behind, Jays and Cleveland 4.5. Still nothing that couldn’t change in a week.
  • If Detroit misses the playoffs after trading for David Price, that sure will look bad for Dave Dombrowski. On the bright side, they’re now better fixed for a play-in-to-the-wild-card game. [giggles] If Scherzer and Price pitch every 5th day from here on, they’d be set up for those do-or-die games — but that schedule probably won’t hold, as it would mean skipping Rick Porcello for more than a week.

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Saturday 8/16: @Giants 6, Phillies 5 — Mike Morse had a triple and two doubles, on the one-year anniversary of the last such game by a Giant. Three of their last four came on August 16.

  • Tim Hudson is 1-7, 4.71 in his last 11 starts, after opening 7-2, 1.81.

Sunday 8/17: @Giants 5, Phillies 2 — Checking in on Ben Revere‘s freak stats … I’m fine with saluting his .357 BA since the Break. But since it comes with no walks and just 5 extra-base hits out of 45 knocks, it’s only been good for 13 runs scored and one RBI in 129 PAs. For the year, Ben’s at .313 BA, .329 OBP(!) and .368 SLG. It would be the first live-ball qualified year with BA at .310+ and OPS under .700 (using the modern qualifying standard). Also, the 5th qualified season since 1907 with a .300 BA and 14 times as many hits as walks (141-10).

  • Javier Lopez got five outs, his longest stint in just over a year. He’s closing in on a Mike Myers record — highest percentage of left-on-left batters faced, in a career of 400+ IP. It’s Myers 52.6%, Lopez 52.5%, two points higher than #3.
  • Morse went 7 for 8 in this series, with 4 extra-base hits and no whiffs.

_____

Monday 8/18: @Phillies 4, Mariners 1 — Roenis Elias got through 4 innings on just one run, despite 6 walks, a HBP, and a double with two aboard, as nine Phils were stranded. But Dominic Leone took over and promptly served a 3-run homer to Andres Blanco. Jerome Williams blanked the M’s into the 8th on just 3 hits, and Seattle fell into a wild-card tie with idle Detroit.

  • Seattle’s the only AL contender with a losing interleague record (7-8). Twenty-six of their remaining 38 games are in their division, split evenly between two of the best teams and two of the worst. They’ve handled the A’s and Angels (14-11) better than the Rangers & Astros (13-12).

Tuesday 8/19: Mariners 5, @Phillies 2 — Seems like Hisashi Iwakuma’s found his second wind. After a late start to his season, a rough patch from late May through June left his ERA at 3.48. But his last 10 starts have brought a 1.63 RA/9, with 4 walks and 65 Ks.

  • Out of 16 pitchers with at least 10 starts of 8+ IP since last year, only Iwakuma (12) and King Felix (17) have not gone the distance. Yet both have averaged about 6.8 IP/GS, among the top six of those with 30+ starts.

_____

Friday 8/15: Royals 6, @Twins 5 — Josh Willingham’s first Royals ribbies came from a 3-run double that turned over a 2-0 deficit in the 4th.

  • KC bats haven’t been red-hot in this 11-1 stretch — their .756 OPS is the same as Detroit’s season mark — but the hits have been clustered. Six of the 11 wins featured an inning of 4 runs or more, with those six big innings comprising half of the runs in those wins.
  • Wade Davis’s 0.84 ERA would be the 6th-best ever with 50+ innings. There have been 13 scoreless streaks of 20+ games this year, and Davis owns two of them, separated by a one-run outing. The last pitcher with two such streaks in one season was Joe Nathan, 2004.

Saturday 8/16: @Twins 4, Royals 1 — Per 9 innings, Phil Hughes has allowed 10.03 hits, but just 3.82 runs. Not since 1935 has a qualifier logged such a low RA/9 along with 10+ H/9 — but Hughes would be joined this year by a more extreme case: Mark Buehrle has yielded 10.36 H/9, but 3.78 RA/9.

A change of home parks was expected to help Hughes, who had a 4.77 ERA in the new Yankee Stadium fueled by a frightful home-run rate. So it’s funny that he has a 4.79 ERA in Target Field this year, with 8 of his 11 HRs, and a 2.78 ERA on the road. But a chuckle is all that info’s worth; his BA and OPS splits are much closer, so the ERA gap is probably just cluster luck.

  • No Royals regular is slugging over .433 (Alex Gordon). The last team with a winning record and no regular slugging at least .440 (400+ PAs) was the 1991 Cardinals, 84-78. The last to reach the playoffs was the ’74 Orioles, one of the greatest defensive teams. The last to win it all was the ’65 Dodgers, with no one slugging even .400.

Sunday 8/17: Royals 12, @Twins 6 — Cluster, cluster: A 7-run 2nd.

Monday 8/18: Royals 6, @Twins 4 — Erik Kratz is the first Royal to pinch-hit a homer and hit another in the same game. It’s been done 35 times since 1914, the first in 1938 (Al Simmons).

_____

Tuesday 8/19: Royals 7, @Rockies 4 — Can’t stop ’em. Omar Infante put KC ahead in the 7th with the first of his two 2-run doubles, each coming in a 3-run frame that started with two out and bases empty.

  • The Royals’ pitching line in this 22-5 stretch: 2.93 ERA, 246 IP, 218 hits, 206 Ks, 70 walks.
  • Their offense, before this game: .316 OBP (below AL average), .727 OPS (would rank 5th as an AL season mark) — those don’t suggest almost 5 runs per game. Clusters can go on a long time, as last year’s Cardinals proved. Usually, they don’t. But these wins are booked, and KC’s in the catbird seat.

_____

Friday 8/15: @Cleveland 2, Baltimore 1 (11 inn.) — Buck Showalter used Brian Matusz to close the 10th against Jason Kipnis, then tried to sneak him past a righty to get to Michael Brantley. But that matchup never came off, because Mike Aviles jerked a 1-2 hanging curve down the line and into the night. RHBs have hit .305 and slugged .497 in the career of Matusz, which is why he morphed from SP into lefty specialist.

  • Corey Kluber didn’t get the win — he handed off a 1-0 lead in the 8th after Nelson Cruz hit a two-out single, and Bryan Shaw gave up two more hits for the tie. But any lingering doubts that Kluber truly belongs in the top tier of aces should have been quelled by his eighth 10-K outing this year, which left him 2nd in strikeouts and 4th in innings among all pitchers this year.
  • Last Clevelander with at least 8 games of double-digit strikeouts: Dennis Eckersley, 1976. Only Sam McDowell, Bob Feller, Herb Score and Luis Tiant ever had more.

Sunday 8/17: Baltimore 4, @Cleveland 1 — Kevin Gausman had a 3-1 lead after six, and just 91 pitches spent. But when you can summon one reliever with an 0.96 ERA, another who’s fanned 44% of all batters, and a third whose groundball rate is the best in this century, if not ever — what would you do?

  • For the third year in a row, over 14% of Oriole hits are homers. Only six other teams had such a percentage in one of those years, with no repeaters.
  • Baltimore also has more than half as many home runs as walks. Only three others have ever reached that ratio: last year’s O’s, the 2010 Blue Jays and the 2005 Rangers.

_____

Friday 8/15: @Rays 5, Yankees 0 — Alex Cobb’s 7.1 scoreless made it nine straight Rays starts of 6+ IP and 2 runs or less, with a combined 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 60 IP — 39 hits, 9 walks, 66 Ks. Brad Boxberger stranded full sacks in the 8th, pumping his fastball past Jacoby Ellsbury and Mark Teixeira

  • Boxberger has held LHBs to an .077 BA (6 for 78), .115 SLG and .306 OPS — all would be the best known marks for a RHP facing more than 80 LHBs. His last 25 IP: one run, 8 hits, 5 walks, 39 Ks out of 83 batters, stranded 14 of 16 inherited
  • From an MLB-worst 24-42 start, Tampa’s gone an MLB-best 37-19 to claw back to .500. Still 9 games behind Baltimore, 5.5 back of Seattle for a wild card.
  • The Yanks have scored 7 runs in their 5-game skid, batting .174 with 8 walks and 46 Ks.

Sunday 8/17: Yankees 4, @Rays 2 — New York captured the series, and stopped a couple of Tampa streaks: A 3-run 5th off Jeremy Hellickson ended their run of 10 starts of 6+ IP and 2 runs or less. Mark Teixeira’s solo in the 8th closed their franchise-record streak of yielding 3 runs or less at 12 games, second to Seattle this season, and five games more than Tampa’s prior best (which they matched in July). In the AL since 1992, only these M’s and last year’s Royals reached 13 in a row of 3 runs or less.

  • Teixeira’s team-high 20th came in team game #122 — the latest since 1995 for the first Yankee to reach 20 HRs.
  • David Robertson cashed save #33 in 35 chances. Some people actually wondered how he’d handle closing, despite his 1.91 ERA in the past three years, with an MLB-high 97 holds and top-10 ranks in reliever Ks and K%.

_____

Tuesday 8/19: Astros 7, @Yankees 4 — I’ve still got the touch! Chris Carter slammed a tiebreaking 3-run shot on 3-and-0, after Robertson walked two in a row.

  • Carter had fanned in his first four trips. He’s the first Astro with 4 Ks and a HR in a regulation game; Jeff Bagwell and Glenn Davis (twice) did it in extra innings. He’s also the first Astro with 30 HRs since 2007 (Carlos Lee).
  • 15 Ks by New York pitchers tied the club record for a 9-inning loss, done six times, five since 1999.

_____

Friday 8/15: Reds 3, @Rockies 2 — Johnny Cueto gave up a 2-run homer … to Curtis Granderson, way back in his 2nd start. The other 15 home runs off him were solos, like Nolan Arenado’s shot that led off the 2nd tonight. For known splits and at least 15 HRs in a season, only four had a higher rate of solo shots, led by Jose Rijo ’93 and Mark Leiter ’95, both 18 of 19. Since WWII, 19 pitchers went 200+ IP and served up no more than one homer with anyone on, and three gave up none of those: Dean Chance ’64 (CYA), Pedro ’99 (CYA) and Vida Blue ’76 (2nd in WAR/pitch).

Sunday 8/17: @Rockies 10, Reds 9 (1st gm.) / @Rockies 10, Reds 5 (2nd gm.) — Two excruciating losses dropped the Reds two games under .500 with 38 to play, which really should bury a team’s postseason hopes. But they’re only 4.5 games out of a wild-card berth, and none of the contenders are very good. In fact, if it were judged by run differential, Cincinnati would be in right now. And their 39-36 mark against teams at .500+ is better than all five clubs that lead them in the WC chase. They have 10 games left with St. Louis (starting Monday), six with the Bucs, four with Atlanta. So, all we know for sure is that these losses hurt.

In the opener, Aroldis Chapman took the hill with a 4-run lead, and walked the first four men. With no assurance that he would ever throw another strike, on came J.J. Hoover, who got two outs before the ex-Red Drew Stubbs whacked a 3-run walk-off.

  • One prior Rockies walk-off from two out and at least two runs down, by Dante Bichette in 1999. Last such event against the Reds was in 1992, when Rob Dibble served up two walks and a bomb by Bobby Bonilla to extend a Mets win streak.
  • Chapman’s wild stint was the first 4-walk, no-outs appearance this year, and the first such since 2002 while walking all batters faced.
  • Hoover has whiffed 27.6% of all batters, but his 5.23 ERA would be 3rd-worst ever with that high a K rate and 50+ IP. Ten homers in 53 IP will do that.

In the nightcap, Colorado scored 8 runs in the 7th and 8th to blow off a 5-2 deficit, and blow up Cincinnati’s August bullpen record to 0-5, 5.94 ERA. Michael Cuddyer notched his second cycle, the first in MLB since last September, and the 7th in Rockies history — all those in Coors Field, which has hosted 12 of the 74 cycles since its 1995 opening. Cuddyer’s [a-hem] “triple” was the first of his injury-marred season.

  • Since 1914 … Cuddyer is the 23rd with at least two cycles, and the third since 2012 to join that club. Only Long Bob Meusel and Babe Herman have tri-cycled, with that club closed since 1933.
  • Of those 74 cycles since 1995, 44 came at home — a bit surprising, since those home teams mostly didn’t bat in the 9th (36-8 record).

_____

Friday 8/15: Angels 5, @Rangers 4 — Not another one-run save for Huston Street? Kole Calhoun’s 3-run shot in the 5th helped Garrett Richards take a 5-1 lead to the 8th. Then Texas rallied for three, mostly off Kevin Jepsen, with Adrian Beltre’s 4th hit in the middle of things. But Mike Scioscia had faith in his back-end weapons, intentionally walking the lead run before calling for Joe Smith to put out the fire — groundout from a righty, what else? — and deliver the lead to 9th Street.

  • With Trout, Pujols and Hamilton slumping since the Break (combined .232 BA), the Halos have scored just 3.4 R/G, after 5.1 before. But they’ve gone 14-12, thanks to nine one-run wins, six saved by Street and three walk-offs.
  • Beltre had a .270 BA through age 30, but he’s hit .315 in the next five years. Out of 71 modern players who hit .310 or better from age 31-35 (with 2,000+ PAs), only Luis Gonzalez (.268), Paul O’Neill (.268) and Dave Bancroft (.269) hit below Beltre through age 30.

Saturday 8/16: Angels 5, @Rangers 4See above. This one gave the Angels MLB’s best winning percentage.

Sunday 8/17: Rangers 3, Angels 2 — Third time broke the charm. Texas had four hits all day until Street came on with a 2-1 lead, and gave up four hits in a row. Street hadn’t allowed two runs or 3 hits in a game this year, nor 4 hits in his last 263 outings back to August 2009; he hadn’t allowed two runs without a homer since late 2011.

  • Trout’s not going to lose the MVP to Miguel Cabrera this year — nor to Josh Donaldson or Alex Gordon, no matter what WAR says. But his slow second half has left the door open for either of Seattle’s stars. Cano’s .332 BA hasn’t put up as many runs as Trout’s .936 OPS — but voters still like batting average, and the narrative of a new player leading a surprising team. Think of Vlad Guerrero in 2004, Ichiro in 2001, and Terry Pendleton in 1991.

_____

Tuesday 8/19: Angels 4, @Red Sox 3 — After a day of rest, Street got right back upon that one-run pony, punching out a pair with the tying run on second. We know Mike Scioscia’s not afraid to put the winning run aboard; Big Papi got the two-out pass, after popping his 29th to push his big-league best ribby count to 92. He also leads in IBBs for the last two years, by 47-32 over Cano.

_____

Saturday 8/16: @Nationals 4, Pirates 3 — Can’t blame the loss on Gregory Polanco, ’cause even if he’d caught the catchable game-winner, there’s still a man on third and one out. But the approach was gruesome.

Sunday 8/17: @Nationals 6, Pirates 5 — The double-blown-save got the notice, but the Bucs made back-to-back bad throws home to give the Nats 3 runs in the 7th, and a 4-2 lead. Their 5-game skid is their worst since 2012, while Washington’s 6-game streak gave them the NL’s best record and maintained a 6-game bulge despite Atlanta’s sweeping Oakland.

  • Josh Harrison was wrong to assume that Polanco would try for the plate — but I still can’t believe the kid was stopped at third. With the lead in hand, it’s time to be aggressive, and Harper fielded the hit almost standing still.

_____

Monday 8/18: @Nationals 5, D-backs 4 — When you’re hot … Washington grabbed a lead in the 7th, on a Wilson Ramos two-out homer; fell behind and then went back on top in the 8th; blew another 9th-inning save, this time by Tyler Clippard; and then saw Snakes on every base with none out in the 11th. Craig Stammen punched through that, and Adam LaRoche crushed a 3-1 pitch for the Nats’ third straight walk-off win, fourth straight one-run win, and 7th victory in a row.

  • The Rays won three straight walk-offs back in May — and then lost 14 of their next 16 games.
  • The Nats don’t have an MVP candidate, nor one of the league’s top 10 in WAR or OPS+. But they put out a lineup with Ramos 7th, Asdrubal Cabrera 8th, and six legit bats ahead of them, and that’s pretty deep — eight current regulars with season OPS+ between 98 (Cabrera) and 134 (LaRoche).

Tuesday 8/19: @Nationals 8, D-backs 1 — No need for late heroics, with a six-run 3rd inning and Stephen Strasburg’s eight stout stanzas smoothing the path to an 8th straight win.

_____

Saturday 8/16Padres 9, @Cardinals 5 — Jedd Gyorko owns the Friars’ last three grand slams, since last September. On a tangent….

  • Kevin Siegrist‘s sophomore year has been a whole new ballgame. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. There was no foundation for a repeat of last year’s 33% K rate or .195 BAbip — but neither do this year’s peripherals suggest a 6.11 ERA.

_____

Tuesday 8/19: @Cardinals 5, Reds 4 — Watching some of this game, I was struck by how slow and clumsy Matt Holliday is in left field, playing on a bad left knee. (Hey, it’s a long season — not every box score has buried treasure!)

_____

Friday 8/15: @White Sox 11, Blue Jays 5 — Marcus Stroman didn’t last the 1st inning. The last Blue Jay to suffer that fate was Todd Redmond, who entered this game in the 4th and closed the frame, but yielded six straight hits and 5 runs in the 5th to put the game out of reach.

  • Jose Abreu hasn’t homered in 15 games, and half his 6 RBI in that span came in this game. But he’s hit .333 in that stretch; he just hasn’t had ribby chances — 5 for 11 with RISP (3-3 Friday), 6 walks or HBP. Chicago’s .315 OBP from the #1-2 spots is 12th in the AL, making Abreu’s MLB-high 89 RBI even more striking; he’s hit .315 and slugged .726 with RISP.

_____

Sunday 8/17: @Marlins 10, D-backs 3 — Giancarlo’s 4-2-2-4 set a new career high of 88 RBI, and tied his bests of 79 runs and 135 hits.

_____

Sunday 8/17: Cubs 2, @Mets 1 — Got my first real good look at Jake Arrieta, who used a sharp yet big-breaking curve to fan nine Mets against 2 hits over seven scoreless frames.

An interesting column by Rany Jazayerli looks at the Cubs’ rebuilding plan, listing Arrieta among their smart pick-ups of pitchers who were undervalued, based on FIP. But to fit Arrieta into that profile, you’d have to focus only on his 2012-13 stints with the Orioles, ignoring his first two years — about the same innings, with a 4.88 ERA and 5.08 FIP. The FIP angle would fit if Arrieta had seen improved results with the Cubs without much improvement in basic components. But in fact, he’s just pitching much better. His walk and home-run rates — 10.0% and 3.1% with the O’s — have been slashed to 6.7% and 0.9% this year (4 HRs in 117 IP is 3rd-best among those with 100+ IP), while his K rate is up from 17.5% to 26.2%. And it’s not just easier competition from leaving the AL East for the NL. While with the O’s, Arrieta had a 6.57 ERA in 12 starts against NL clubs, and he pitched better against AL East clubs than he did overall (4.74 ERA vs. 5.46).

That’s not to deny that getting Arrieta and Pedro Strop for a half-year of Scott Feldman was a reasonable gamble by Jed Hoyer. But to estimate the odds of this much payoff on Arrieta, I formed a group of the 67 pitchers from 1980-2010 whose first 3 years totaled at least 250 IP and an FIP between 4.60 and 4.90. (Arrieta had 334 IP and a 4.73 FIP.) From their 4th year onward, just seven of those 67 pitchers had even one 100-IP season with FIP of 3.50 or better — and only A.J. Burnett had more than one such year, or any year with FIP of 3.00 or below. Twelve of those 67 had any 100-IP year with ERA+ at least 130, and only Brad Radke and Pat Hentgen had two such years. Arrieta had a 2.37 FIP and 139 ERA+ before Sunday. But such jackpots are rare when you’re trolling the undervalued pool.

  • Best outing yet for Mets prospect Rafael Montero: 7.1 IP, one run on 5 singles, 2 walks and 6 Ks — the first of his six starts without a home run.

Monday 8/18: Cubs 4, @Mets 1 — It’s only the Mets, but still … Kyle Hendricks allowed one run in 7 innings, the fifth time in seven outings that he’s gone at least that long while yielding 2 runs or less. Just three others in the last 20 years matched that count: Tim Hudson, King Felix, and Brian Tollberg. Cubs fans will take those odds … In just his 4th pro season, Hendricks already has over 500 IP, averaging more than 6 innings per start the last 3 years, a mark few recent prospects have hit even once. He’s averaged a hair under 7 IP in 7 big-league starts, with a 1.85 RA/9.

  • All right … sigh … let’s get this over with: The Mets’ 5-game “streak” of 4 hits ties the searchable record since 1914, done by seven teams in all, last by the 2004 Mets. Those other streaks totaled a 3-27 record, and averaged 5.3 total runs — so the 2-3 record and 13 runs in this current streak count as a small miracle.
  • Four of those games were pitched by the Cubs. The last team to pitch four straight yielding 4 hits or less was the 2008 Mets — five in a row, starting with four 3-hitters, and followed by a 7-hit shutout for a 9-game win streak into the All-Star Break. I can’t recall what happened in the second half.
  • The last Cubs string of four straight on 4 hits or less was in 1983, but nothing truly special — they went 1-3 and totaled 12 runs allowed, including a rain-shortened game. The current streak adds up to 12 runs and 2-2.
  • Good recent post by David Schoenfield on Anthony Rizzo. Mets held him down for three games, but he broke out Monday, starting the tying rally with a double in the 6th, then a long go-ahead homer in the 8th, his 28th — 2nd among all first basemen, whom he also leads with 79 runs scored. Naturally, Baez upstaged him later, but I’m sure Rizzo doesn’t a little help with the heavy lifting; he has almost one-quarter of Chicago’s homers.

_____

Tuesday 8/19: @Cubs 2, Giants 0 (4-1/2 inn.) — And that’s how Tsuyoshi Wada bagged his first big-league shutout, in his 7th outing — same pace as the real Dr. K. To be fair, gauging both after 7 games, Wada has a better ERA, WHIP and W%, but far fewer Ks.

  • I didn’t think I’d live to see another protest upheld.
  • Chicago’s 3-game streak yielding one run or less is their first since 2012.
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Doug
Editor
10 years ago

Thursday’s pair of 1-0 games brings the season total to 48, tied with all of 2013, and seven more than 2012. Should pass the 56 in 2011, and possibly the 62 in 2010, the most in the 30 team era and highest since the 72 in 1976. Most in the live ball era is 82 in 1968.

Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago

Buck Farmer?

Of the 189.00 era at AAA Buck Farmers?

RJ
RJ
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

No kidding. Of all the things that stood out to me in this boxscore, the ERAs of Messrs Robbie Ray and Ian Krol were fairly prominent.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN201408220.shtml

(Sorry, John.)

bstar
bstar
10 years ago

Justin Upton’s RISP the last four years, seen instead through the lens of sOPS+ (comparing Justin’s RISP OPS+ vs. league RISP OPS+): 2011: 99 2012: 113 2013: 115 2014: 127 Though not as good as his overall stats, Justin’s RISP numbers are well above league-average in that situation, especially this year. He’s not struggling with runners in scoring position overall, only in comparison to himself. And the Braves’ well-chronicled struggles in finding consistent production at the top of the lineup are likely suppressing his RBI opportunities. Minor problem, though. sOPS+ includes pitchers hitting. This gives every position player in baseball… Read more »

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Edit: I’m not a big fan of using BAbip to explain all of an 80-point swing in anything, for a hitter or a pitcher. So maybe Upton’s reduced Babip with RISP is 30 points “bad luck” and 50 points lesser performance (fewer line drives/more fly balls/weaker contact overall). So add a dash of salt to my BAbip argument above.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

bstar: Try this. Go to the PI Split Finder Player Batting.
Select:
2014
All Teams
Batting Order Position
4th
Sort by sOPS
G>50 (or whatever you deem appropriate)
Get Report

Upton’s sOPS+ = 138, third in the ML following Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre.

bstar
bstar
10 years ago

Richard, thanks but that gives me overall sOPS. I’m looking for sOPS for #3 hitters with RISP. That’s two different splits, batting order and RISP. Can they be fused together and then reveal an sOPS? So, like I said above, it’s (Upton’s OPS+ w/RISP) vs. (avg. #3 hitter’s OPS+ w/RISP).

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I would say that they cannot be fused together.

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John, if this is about RBI, I can show you it’s probably lack of opportunities being the main driver on why Upton has never reached 90 RBI, but I will have to do it later.

Also, can you look at #2-#4 hitters? Upton has batted third the most (by far) in his career, and his #2 and #4 PAs are nearly identical, so that’s going to give us the best look. OBP and SLG would be better than OPS, because I can compute an sOPS+ with the first two but not with OPS alone.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

It’s funny about this issue coming up because several weeks ago I did a spreadsheet analysis to determine % of ROB driven in for 2013 for players with 502+ PA. I factored out PA with ROB in which a player received a BB, unless the bases were loaded. There were 140 such players and Justin Upton’s % of ROB driven in was 14.53% placing him in 96th place. I also calculated ROB/PA for all PA, including BB. Upton’s ratio of .529 placed him in 116th place.

bstar
bstar
10 years ago

I won’t argue with you about 2013. J Up was terrible last year w/RISP.

But let me also point something about that, Richard. I looked at all the 90+ RBI guys from last year and the lowest # of runners on base were 362 for Allen Craig. Only four others had under 400 ROB (there were 22 players overall). Justin Upton? 340 ROB.

So about the only way J Up could have possibly gotten 90 RBI last year would be to hit like Craig did w/RISP in 2013: a .454 BA. That’s a pretty tough standard, isn’t it?

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I actually need OBP, not BA, to get OPS+. Taking a stab at OBP for a typical .247 and .271 BA, I’m going to use .335 for Upton and .350 for #2-#4, unless you have those numbers. (Upton draws walks at around a lg avg pace, so I’m likely not too far off here.) Upton, 2011-2014 RISP: .335 OBP, .424 SLG #2-#4, 2011-2014 RISP: .350 OBP, .428 SLG Upton’s .335 OBP is 4% lower than .350, so that’s -4 points on the OBP component. His SLG is 1% lower, so that’s -1 point for SLG. So Upton’s sOPS+ for RISP,… Read more »

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

No, that’s too kind to Upton. I should use .325 as OBP for JUp, to hold a similar 24-point gap that we saw in BA. Using that, Upton’s sOPS+ goes down to 92, which supports your idea more than mine.

I’ll concede at this point, but I do think Upton’s lack of opportunities in drivers in runners is the biggest reason he hasn’t gotten 90 ribbies. Now that he’s finally hitting cleanup full-time, it should happen this year.

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

OK, thanks, JA. Higher OBP for UPton than expected. Putting this to bed: .352 v .361 OBP: -2.5% for Upton .424 v .428 SLG: -0.9% for Upton So 100 – 2.5 – 0.9 = 96.6 => 97 sOPS+ So a 97 sOPS+ for Upton, 2011-14 w/ RISP compared to avg. #2-#4 hitter 2011-14 w/RISP. At this point, all I really care about is that you somehow come away from this not pissed that I’ve jumped all over something relatively minor, John. I love your Braves observations, especially about the defensive numbers since there always seems to be a Brave with… Read more »

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Oops, sorry, I was looking at Upton’s 86 RBI in 2009 when I said he would have passed 90.

Yep, different source, Baseball Prospectus’s RBI opportunities page.

And here’s the discrepancy problem: B Pro is listing when a player switches teams as two separate seasons on their lists. For example, when Soriano got 103 ribbies last year, B Pro is dividing up his ROB between CHC and NYY, so he’s not above Upton on their 2013 list when he should be. So your rankings are more accurate.

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Soldiering on then, here’s Upton’s MLB rank in ROB: 2010: 353 ROB, 99th best 2011: 360 ROB, 76th best 2012: 383 ROB, 43rd best 2013: 340 ROB, 86th best Before you cry foul for comparing him to all MLB hitters, let me point out that a large majority of players ahead of Upton on these lists are power hitters or guys who normally bat #2-#4. Also, Justin easily crosses 90 RBI in 2010 had he not missed almost 30 games. And he’ll get there again this year because he’s hitting cleanup for the first time this year. I’ll try one… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
10 years ago

Ah yes, fun and games once again with the potential for a playoff fustercluck (thanks again for doing your part Bud!). So many thoughts, so little time… The first question that enters the befuddled mind, is, how is it that if the 3-way tie John describes occurs, that the loser of a one game divisional champ game between the Royals and Tigers, even *gets* a shot at the Mariners for the 2nd WC spot. If, as MLB has always stated, such a divisional playoff game counts as part of the regular season, then the loser of the Royals/Tigers game necessarily… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Ah OK, thanks John. It does not however, change my opinion that adding the second WC was the single stupidest decision regarding MLB playoff structure ever made. It’s become essentially impossible now to make any type of legitimate, history-wide, comparisons between franchises regarding pennant and WS championships, because randomness is now a much more significant factor than in former years. This is not all Selig’s fault: he’s just continuing the trend that started in 1969, but he certainly did put the cherry on the sundae. I used to argue that 3 5-team divisions, with one WC, was superior, in terms… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

The second wild card, with the one game play-in between the two wild cards, has the happy effect of increasing the relative odds (relative to the other teams, that is) of the team with the best regular season record in a league getting to the World Series, without reducing that team’s odds in absolute terms.

Jim Bouldin
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

You mean because in the WC game, a team has to use it’s ace, who then cannot start twice in the subsequent division series against the league’s best team, thereby increasing the latter’s chance of advancing to the LCS and WS? One counter to that I would have is that that will only hold if in fact the ace does pitch the WC game, which I think a substantial fraction of the time has the potential not to occur because of teams who are fighting to even get a WC spot juggling their rotations in the final game(s) of the… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I don’t think birtelcom is talking about aces at all. If each playoff team has an equal shot in each series, the chances of each winning the pennant is equal, at 25%. With the second wildcard, the chances of the top three teams winning is the same – still 25%. But each of the wildcards changes to 12.5%. In other words, it doesn’t make it any LESS likely for the better teams to win; it just makes it more likely for the 4th best team to lose – at the expense that the 5th best team now has a shot.… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Dr. Doom, We’ll have to let birtelcom explain what he meant, but I don’t think so, because he clearly stated that the team with the best record has an increased shot at winning the pennant under the current system, by which I assume he means relative to pre-2012. More generally, aside from the fact that the playoff teams often will not have randomly assumed chances of winning the pennant, your example demonstrates my larger point. If the league’s best team has only a 25% chance of winning the pennant, or 28, 37, or 61%, or whatever figure you like, that’s… Read more »