The first season of the rest of Adam Dunn’s life begins today. Following a year of historic struggles where he hit .159 with an OPS+ of 56, Dunn and his Chicago White Sox start a new season today against the Texas Rangers. By all accounts, the embattled first baseman looks to have a new lease on his baseball life. Dunn played well through spring training, and rookie manager Robin Ventura told the Chicago Tribune that Dunn will hit third thanks to his ability to get on base.
Seemingly, there’s no direction but up for Adam Dunn in 2012, though whether he can rebound at the plate remains to be seen. If history is any judge, though, Dunn’s best course of action might be to swing away. Throughout baseball history, many great hitters walked less than their lifetime rates among their top five OPS+ seasons.
It’s an odd feat, walking less when hitting well, but at quick glance, more hitters have done it than not. Alex Rodriguez has done it. So have Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and Ichiro Suzuki. It was even accomplished by the infinitely patient Rogers Hornsby, whose advice on hitting to a minor league Ted Williams was, “Wait for a good pitch.” Perhaps Hornsby was drawing on his experience as a young hitter in 1922 when he hit .401, posted an OPS+ of 207, and walked 9.23 percent of his plate appearances, the latter less than his lifetime rate of 10.95 percent.
Rodriguez is an interesting case. He’s exceeded his lifetime walk rate of 10.96 percent three of his top five OPS+ seasons. But then there’s 1996, when a young Rodriguez was on a Seattle Mariners team that hit .287 with Ken Griffey Jr. and Jay Buhner each supplying north of 40 home runs and 130 RBI and Edgar Martinez hitting .327. Hitting an American League-best .358 in 1996 with an OPS+ of 160, Rodriguez walked 59 times in 677 plate appearances with just one intentional pass all season. And in his first year with the Texas Rangers, Rodriguez walked 10.24 percent of his plate appearances.
Then there are the players who make no sense whatsoever with their hitting and walking. Willie Wilson walked just over 5 percent of his plate appearances lifetime, but hit .332 in 1982 walking 4.19 percent and .326 in 1980 walking 3.76 percent. Playing on the first Mariners team without Rodriguez in 2001 when he presumably could’ve been pitched around, Suzuki walked 4.07 percent of his at-bats, below his lifetime rate of 6.15 percent. Consider, a .350 batting average and just 30 walks for Suzuki that year in 738 plate appearances. Such numbers boggle the sabermetric mind.
To be sure, some of the greatest hitters in baseball history walked more when hitting well. Williams, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds all walked above their lifetime rates of roughly 20 percent per plate appearance for their top five OPS+ seasons. Bonds was essentially a different hitter in the first and second parts of his career, walking 16.75 percent of his plate appearances from 1986-1998, 26.65 percent from 1999-2007, and 20.29 percent overall for his career. No matter. His walk rate for his best years in each section surpass his rate, 20.75 percent in 1992 for instance and 37.6 percent in 2004.
Dunn may be no Bonds or Rodriguez at the plate. But it will be interesting to see which player his walk rate comes closer to this year and what it will mean for his hitting numbers.
