Speed to burn: stolen base proficiency and longer careers

One of the best kept secrets of the 2013 season was this – among only a handful of previous occasions, this season ended with two players having current 13 year or longer streaks of 20 or more stolen bases. Those players were Ichiro Suzuki and Juan Pierre. And, if not for an injury-plagued 2010 season that held him to just 17 thefts, Jimmy Rollins would have been a 3rd player with that distinction.

More after the jump on players who maintain stolen base proficiency throughout their careers.

Ichiro and Pierre are just the 26th and 27th players since 1901 with a 20+ stolen base streak of 10 seasons or longer. Here are those streaks, chronologically.

Rk Yrs From To ▾ Age
1 Ichiro Suzuki 13 2001 2013 27-39 Ind. Seasons
2 Juan Pierre 13 2001 2013 23-35 Ind. Seasons
3 Bobby Abreu 13 1999 2011 25-37 Ind. Seasons
4 Rickey Henderson 23 1979 2001 20-42 Ind. Seasons
5 Otis Nixon 12 1988 1999 29-40 Ind. Seasons
6 Barry Bonds 10 1989 1998 24-33 Ind. Seasons
7 Brett Butler 14 1982 1995 25-38 Ind. Seasons
8 Vince Coleman 11 1985 1995 23-33 Ind. Seasons
9 Ozzie Smith 16 1978 1993 23-38 Ind. Seasons
10 Tim Raines 13 1981 1993 21-33 Ind. Seasons
11 Willie Wilson 15 1978 1992 22-36 Ind. Seasons
12 Steve Sax 11 1982 1992 22-32 Ind. Seasons
13 Davey Lopes 11 1973 1983 28-38 Ind. Seasons
14 Cesar Cedeno 10 1971 1980 20-29 Ind. Seasons
15 Bobby Bonds 11 1969 1979 23-33 Ind. Seasons
16 Bert Campaneris 14 1965 1978 23-36 Ind. Seasons
17 Lou Brock 15 1963 1977 24-38 Ind. Seasons
18 Willie Davis 11 1962 1972 22-32 Ind. Seasons
19 Maury Wills 11 1960 1970 27-37 Ind. Seasons
20 Luis Aparicio 11 1956 1966 22-32 Ind. Seasons
21 Frankie Frisch 10 1920 1929 21-30 Ind. Seasons
22 Eddie Collins 12 1909 1920 22-33 Ind. Seasons
23 Ty Cobb 14 1906 1919 19-32 Ind. Seasons
24 Tris Speaker 10 1909 1918 21-30 Ind. Seasons
25 Honus Wagner 15 1901 1915 27-41 Ind. Seasons
26 Sherry Magee 10 1905 1914 20-29 Ind. Seasons
27 Joe Tinker 11 1902 1912 21-31 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/17/2013.

The 15 year streak shown above for Honus Wagner was, in actuality, a 19 year streak starting with Wagner’s first season in 1897 when he played just 62 games.

From the above list, this would make just the 6th time (depending on how you count) that two or more players have had concurrent 20 stolen base streaks of 13 years or longer, following these occasions:

  • 1977       – Lou Brock (15), Bert Campaneris (13)
  • 1990       – Willie Wilson (13), Ozzie Smith (13)
  • 1991-92 – Willie Wilson (15), Ozzie Smith (15), Rickey Henderson (14)
  • 1993        – Ozzie Smith (16), Rickey Henderson (15), Tim Raines (13)
  • 1994-95 – Rickey Henderson (17), Brett Butler (14)

There was lots of base stealing in the 19th century, but only two instances of two players having concurrent 13 year streaks.

Long streaks, of course, demand that players maintain their overall effectiveness as ballplayers, stay in shape and stay healthy. While the last two are often related, there is also an element of good fortune in staying healthy. So, instead of looking strictly at streaks, these are the players with the most seasons of 20 or more steals when aged 30 or older.

Rk Yrs ▾ From To Age
1 Rickey Henderson 13 1989 2001 30-42 Ind. Seasons
2 Honus Wagner 12 1904 1915 30-41 Ind. Seasons
3 Otis Nixon 11 1989 1999 30-40 Ind. Seasons
4 Davey Lopes 11 1975 1986 30-41 Ind. Seasons
5 Ichiro Suzuki 10 2004 2013 30-39 Ind. Seasons
6 Lou Brock 10 1969 1979 30-40 Ind. Seasons
7 Kenny Lofton 9 1997 2007 30-40 Ind. Seasons
8 Brett Butler 9 1987 1995 30-38 Ind. Seasons
9 Ozzie Smith 9 1985 1993 30-38 Ind. Seasons
10 Bobby Abreu 8 2004 2011 30-37 Ind. Seasons
11 Maury Wills 8 1963 1970 30-37 Ind. Seasons
12 Eric Young 7 1997 2003 30-36 Ind. Seasons
13 Willie Wilson 7 1986 1992 30-36 Ind. Seasons
14 Joe Morgan 7 1974 1982 30-38 Ind. Seasons
15 Bert Campaneris 7 1972 1978 30-36 Ind. Seasons
16 Sam Rice 7 1920 1926 30-36 Ind. Seasons
17 Max Carey 7 1920 1927 30-37 Ind. Seasons
18 Eddie Collins 7 1917 1924 30-37 Ind. Seasons
19 Juan Pierre 6 2008 2013 30-35 Ind. Seasons
20 Dave Roberts 6 2002 2007 30-35 Ind. Seasons
21 Omar Vizquel 6 1997 2006 30-39 Ind. Seasons
22 Paul Molitor 6 1987 1994 30-37 Ind. Seasons
23 Jose Cruz 6 1978 1984 30-36 Ind. Seasons
24 Ty Cobb 6 1917 1927 30-40 Ind. Seasons
25 Miller Huggins 6 1908 1914 30-36 Ind. Seasons
26 Fielder Jones 6 1902 1908 30-36 Ind. Seasons
27 George Davis 6 1901 1908 30-37 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/17/2013.

So, 27 players again, and again Suzuki and Pierre are among them. Also on the list are a number of their contemporaries, including Bobby Abreu, Kenny Lofton, Dave Roberts and Omar Vizquel.

So, does the ability to steal bases prolong careers? I approached this question by looking at the 193 retired players since 1901 with 15 to 25 WAR from age 30-34. I reasoned that, irrespective of other factors, players with 25+ WAR (54 of them) in those seasons would tend to have prolonged careers simply because they are so good (37 of the 54 are HOFers, 7 more are on the ballot). Based on stolen bases in that same 5-year period (age 30-34), this is how that 15-25 WAR group compared in PA for the remainder of their careers:

  • 80+ SB (41 players) – median 1714 PA aged 35+
  • 21-79 SB (88 players) – 1227 PA
  • 0-20 SB (64 players) – 1058 PA

If you’re wondering about the effect of catchers, the results change only slightly when removing them from the group:

  • 80+ SB – 1722 PA
  • 21-79 SB – 1227 PA
  • 0-20 SB – 1073 PA

This result, while not demonstrating causality, is clearly consistent with the hypothesis that proficiency in stolen bases after age 30 does prolong careers. Of course, the factors that contribute to a player being able to be proficient in stealing after age 30 (i.e. staying fit and healthy) may be what is contributing to longer careers, rather than base stealing proficiency in and of itself. Thus, advances in fitness, training and diet regimens could well be the factor explaining why so many of these players have come from the past 25 years.

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birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

Talking about older players stealing bases provokes a shout-out to Sam Jethroe, a Negro Leagues star who made it to the newly integrated MLB at age 33 and immediately led the league in SBs in his first two seasons. He was NL Rookie of the Year in 1950. In the 1990s, Jethroe brought a lawsuit (unsuccessful) against MLB seeking pension credit for the time he presumably would have been in the majors absent racial discrimination. Most SBs in a Season During the 1950s: Luis Aparicio (1959) 56 Willie Mays (1956) 40 Willie Mays (1957) 38 Sam Jethroe (1950) 35 Sam… Read more »

brp
brp
11 years ago

Speed prolongs careers, stolen bases are a “side effect.” For an NFL example, look at Darrell Green and Deion Sanders (also MLB example but he didn’t play that till age 37). Green played till 42. People were amazed – but when you’re faster than almost everyone, even when you lose a step or even two, you’re still fast enough. Rickey Henderson at 44 was probably still faster than 2/3 of the league and I’m sure he could still outrun the Molina family while backpedaling. At some point the other skills degrade (e.g. Ichiro is still fast and plays good D… Read more »

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

Well that’s a bad example since everyone else on the Yankees is also 40…

mosc
mosc
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

Nunez
Granderson (he is faster than people think but does not have the recognition of pitchers that Ichiro does)

But you did pick arguably the slowest team in the league to make fun of.

Seriously though, I think Ichiro’s base stealing is much more about experience, proficiency, and skill then it is about speed. A-Rod is also a good base stealer with what would generously be called “average” speed at this point.

Steven
Steven
11 years ago

Brock set the former major league record of 118 at age 35.

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
11 years ago

I think one of the issues with using SBs in this manner is that for a long period of time it was not really employed as a strategy. NL leaders didn’t crack 20 stolen bases in some years (as the post on HOF managers mentions Danny Murtaugh leading the NL with 18 SBs in 1941). Sorting the set of 193 players by their “from” date, there is not a single player between Kiki Cuyler (who’s age 30 season was 1929) and Maury Wills (age 30 season in 1963) who cracks the 80+ stolen base mark (Jim Gilliam is at 79).… Read more »

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

How much was the SB rate still really elevated in the 1980s? Or was it just really skewed by Henderson, Raines, and Coleman, who all regularly stole more bases than most teams do now.

Just wondering.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

FWIW, the high SB rate of “the ’80s” actually began in 1976, when SB/game (which were already on the rise) suddenly spiked from 0.65 to 0.79. SB/G remained between 0.71 and 0.79 each year from 1976-97 except for an outlier of 0.85 in 1987. By 2000, SB/G were down to 0.60, and have not topped 0.67 since. Major thieves at work from 1976-80 included: — Omar Moreno (4 years of 50+ and 3 of 70+); — Ron Leflore (averaged 68 for the 5 years); — Willie Wilson (avg. 69 from 1978-80); — Frank Taveras (avg. 50 for the 5 years);… Read more »