Circle of Greats: 1940 Part 2 Balloting

This post is for voting and discussion in the 36th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This round adds to the ballot those players born in 1940 who were not added in the previous round.  Rules and lists are after the jump.

Players born in 1940 are being brought on to the COG eligible list over two rounds — the top half of the alphabet in the previous round and the bottom half of the alphabet this round.  The new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full group eligible to receive your votes this round.  The new group of 1940-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players.  The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats.  Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility.  Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility.  Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM EST on Tuesday, November 19, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM EST Sunday, November 17.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here:COG 1940 Round 2 Vote Tally.   I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes.  Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted.  Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the new born-in-1940 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players.  The 11 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same.  The new group of 1940 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.  In total there were 30 players born in 1940 who met the “10 seasons played or 20 WAR” minimum requirement.  15 of those are being added to the eligible list this round (alphabetically from Cal Koonce to Cesar Tovar).  The 15 players higher up in the alphabet were added in the previous round.

Holdovers:
Lou Whitaker (eligibility guaranteed for 10 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
Bobby Grich (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Pete Rose (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Dick Allen (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1940, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Willie Stargell
Joe Torre
Ron Santo
Tommy McCraw
Denis Menke
Joe Pepitone
Cesar Tovar
Paul Popovich
Tom Satriano

Pitchers (born in 1940, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Luis Tiant
Ray Sadecki
Mickey Lolich
Jim Maloney
Frank Linzy
Cal Koonce

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Jeff Harris
Jeff Harris
11 years ago

Whitaker, Smoltz, Martinez

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

Cesar Tovar received MVP votes in 5 straight seasons without ever making an All-Star game. I’m guessing no one else can claim that.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Barney McCosky received MVP votes in 6 years, although not consecutively, and was never an All-Star.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Cool find Ed. I’ve no idea how one would systematically search for this, but I’ve found a couple of titbits just by clicking around. Carl Furillo received MVP votes in 7 different seasons in which he did not make the All-Star team. Kirk Gibson won an MVP without ever appearing in an ASG. Conversely, Darryl Strawberry had appeared in 4 All-Star games by the time he received his first MVP vote. Ozzie Smith had 9 seasons where he played in the ASG but received no MVP recognition. PS Let’s say Tovar makes the All Star Game. What position does he… Read more »

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

All of’em. Just like he did against Oakland…

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1968/B09220MIN1968.htm

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Famously, Kirk Gibson WON an MVP without ever being an All-Star (he received votes 4 times).

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
11 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

D’oh! I’m 9 minutes too late to point that out!

Josh
Josh
11 years ago

Rose, Smoltz, Stargell

--bill
--bill
11 years ago

Santo, Grich, Tiant.

GrandyMan
GrandyMan
11 years ago

Whitaker, Smoltz, Grich

J.R.
J.R.
11 years ago

Grich, Biggio, Rose

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

I’m trying to understand these defensive statistics.

1961, Ron Santo was 1st or 2nd in almost every 3B category.
Yes, he led the league in errors, but also in Range Factor.

He was rated at Negative 15 runs (Rfield).

The numbers say that another guy would have done the job better.
What is the problem here?

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Well, if you adjust for the groundball tendencies of the pitching staff and the lefty-righty tendencies of the staff, it COULD be (I say this without looking it up) that Santo led teh league in RF because he just had more opportunities. I don’t know that for sure; it’s just a guess. If they had a lot of groundball pitchers, who induced a lot of left-side contact, it could be that Santo was fielding even fewer balls than one would expect, in spite of leading the league in RF. Again, I don’t know this for sure; it’s just a guess.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I was actually in the process of typing something about that maybe an hour & a half ago when my computer froze up on me. Bill James wrote about something very similar in the BJHBA about Ernie Banks. Ernie was either first or second in almost every fielding category (putouts,assists, fielding percentage, range) in 1959 & 1960 but that was largely a result of 3 factors. First was that he played in more games than any shortstop and only 1 guy in each season was even within 10% of his total. The second reason was none of they guys that… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

And these ratings, are they in a number-vacuum, or are they in comparison to the rest of the league? In 1961 there were 7 other teams in the league. The Dodgers didnt have a full time 3B. The Phillies, almost. So it’s Santo vs: Boyer, Mathews, Freese, Hoak, and Davenport. All of them are rated better than -15 Rfield. ___________________ As for Santo’s chances, he had 495. This would be his lowest total for the next 10 years. The lowest total assists for 10 years, but… Career highs in both double plays and errors. He led the league in Range… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Or maybe I’m overthinking this.
31 errors is a lot.

And he “led” the league in RF/9 with
3.09

but the league average was
2.92
_______________________

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo: -No, the numbers are not in a vacuum. They are computed relative to league average, not replacement level. So -15 means 15 runs worse than the average third baseman. -No, the situational aspect of errors/good plays is not taken into account. If base-out state was considered, you would have an RE24-based metric. If score and inning were also considered, you would have WPA-based defensive numbers. WAR batting runs don’t consider context either. -What does leading the league in Range Factor actually tell us? Very little. Santo may have led the league in putouts and assists per 9, but what… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Santo: 495 Ch; 157 PO; 307 A; 31 E; 41 DP Boyer: 487 Ch; 117 PO; 350 A; 24 E; 23 DP Both players started 153 games at 3B. Both led the league with 3.09 RF/9. But Boyer’s Rfield was +13 to Santo’s -15. I’m sure this huge difference is justifiable mathematically, otherwise it wouldn’t be there, but . . . ? ? ? Santo was a 21-year old with two professional seasons under his belt, playing next to Banks, yes, but only for about a hundred games. Jerry Kindall played most of the others, and racked up a -19… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

In ’61 the Cubs had a low-strikeout, high groundout pitching staff. They were next to last in the NL in strikeouts and first in the ratio of groundouts to flyouts. Those two factors would tend to increase the chances that Santo had, relative to his peers. Also, keep in mind, to the extent that data is available, Total Zone doesn’t just rely on outs, it also relies on basehits. For example: “The responsibility for ground ball singles hit to left field is split between the third baseman and shortstop, for center field it is between the shortstop and second baseman,… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

@31
So if the Cubs’ pitchers gave up a crapload of hard hit low liner/grounders, the infielders absorb that in their Rfield?

That’s what happens when your staff has three Dicks and a Barney.

mosc
mosc
11 years ago

I agree, RFIELD is really a poor stat. The fact that we even have to have a discussion with this without understanding the contributing factors behind it shows even more problems.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
11 years ago

Ron Santo
Pete Rose
Bobby Grich

I have Sandberg at #4, and Tiant at #5. What a tough ballot!

Gary Bateman
Gary Bateman
11 years ago

Santo, Alomar, Smoltz

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago

Tough call- 6 guys that I’m absolute certain belong, 2 more that I’m almost certain and five others that I’m at least 50% sure. And there not a great deal of difference separating the lot of them.

Sandberg, Whitaker, Rose

This might be one where I end up rethinking my vote later on.

MJ
MJ
11 years ago

Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Edgar Martinez.

Chris C
Chris C
11 years ago

2B Craig Biggio
2B Ryne Sandberg
1B/OF Willie Stargell

Alomar is bumped from my ballot this time. No room for Santo either. Shout out to Luis Tiant! I’d vote for about 10 guys if I could

Dr. Remulak
Dr. Remulak
11 years ago

Biggio, Smoltz, Rose.

donburgh
donburgh
11 years ago

Stargell, Biggio, Rose.

FWIW, Stargell is the only HoF position player from the expansion era that never played 150 games in a season.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  donburgh

@22/donburgh,

I was kind of surprised by that, even though I know Stargell missed some games most years, so I checked several other players that were also known for missing time:

-Mantle
-Clemente
-McCovey

All three of them played 150 or more games four times, even though they all played some years in the 154-game era (Mantle more than half).

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

If you wish to include all HOFers, regardless of when they were born, Frank Chance never played more than 136 games. He had only 6 seasons of more than 100 games.

Mike HBC
Mike HBC
11 years ago

Rose, Santo, Smoltz

Abbott
Abbott
11 years ago

Grich, Biggio, Santo

Nick Pain
Nick Pain
11 years ago

Rose, Whitaker, and (since he’s actually eligible this round) Santo.

brp
brp
11 years ago

Rose, Santo, Grich, subject to change

Jeff Hill
Jeff Hill
11 years ago

Rose, Lofton, Santo

KalineCountry
KalineCountry
11 years ago

Lou Whitaker
Willie Stargell
Mickey Lolich

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
11 years ago

When Roger Maris told the Cardinals about which pitchers to watch out for in the 1968 World Series, he told them not to worry about McClain, but Lolich was the one to watch for. Indeed, Lolich won 3 games in the final World Series before the LCS era and hit a homerun off of Nelson Briles. Cub fans may hate me for pointing out that Ron Santo was traded (to the White Sox) for Steve Stone. Probably less here than in the wider world of Twitter. I always got him confused with a 5th-grade teacher named Santos at my elementary… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  oneblankspace

Most innings pitched in the live ball era, single season:

376.2 Wilbur Wood, 1972
376 Mickey Lolich, 1971
371.1 Bob Feller, 1946

Darien
11 years ago

Wow, tough ballot. Santo, Biggio, Rose, I think.

PaulE
PaulE
11 years ago

Allen Alomar Sandberg

These may be the end of the COG for these three……..

PaulE
PaulE
11 years ago

Sorry. In English, that’s “This may……..

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago

Alomar, Rose, Sandberg

Phil
11 years ago

Alomar, because I always vote for Alomar.
Stargell, because I think he might have hit 600 HR if he’d played in the ’90s and ’00s.
Tiant, because statistically he’s borderline (I’m having it both ways here—he benefited from the same era that hurt Stargell) and he was a whole lot of fun.

Paul E
Paul E
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Phil:
In one of the abstracts, Bill James did the hypothetical, speculative calculations for a healthy Orlando Cepeda and Wilver Dornel away from cavernous Forbes Field. If I recall correctly, I don’t think he got either one to 600, however, each cleared 500 with ease

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Tiant may have been helped by his era, but he was hurt by his home park. My guess is that his run environment, the 1970s with Fenway as his home park, was probably pretty historically normal.

RonG
RonG
11 years ago

Grich, Santo, Smoltz

wx
wx
11 years ago

Edgar Martinez, Lou Whitaker, Pete Rose

Nadig
Nadig
11 years ago

Martinez, Lofton, Rose.

opal611
opal611
11 years ago

For the 1941 (Part Two) election, I’m voting for:
-Roberto Alomar
-Ryne Sandberg
-Edgar Martinez

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Biggio (Voted for Previously. Hopefully only temporarily off my ballot.)
-Smoltz
-Whitaker
-Murray
-Grich
-Lofton
-Rose
-Santo
-Tiant

koma
koma
11 years ago

John Smoltz, Craig Biggio, Pete Rose

Mo
Mo
11 years ago

Whitaker stargell grich

mosc
mosc
11 years ago

Smoltz, Biggio, Torre

aweb
aweb
11 years ago

Grich, Whitaker, Santo

I assume Tiant had an injury in 1970-71. Fill those years in with two good seasons, and he’s probably cracking my ballot sometime, but as it is, it seems unlikely.

I should be consistent with past votes based on my perception of player value and go with Rose at some point, but I just can’t yet. If there is a single retired player aware of the CoG voting, it’s probably him…

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
11 years ago

Alomar, Murray, and Santo

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago

Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:

Rose 44.2
Grich 43.6
Santo 43.3
Whitaker 42.7
Martinez 41.3
Smoltz 40.1
Lofton 39.3
Sandberg 38.8
Tiant 37.5
Alomar 36.8
Biggio 36.3
Allen 35.9
Murray 34.9
Stargell 29.6
Torre 27.9

I’m surprised to see how much better Ron Santo was than Willie Stargell. Tiant and Torre should be Hall of Famers too, but they’re not CoG material, at least until the Circle issues some criteria for combining accomplishments as a player and as a manager. None of those new guys quite cracks my ballot.

Rose, Smoltz, Martinez

Jeff B
Jeff B
11 years ago

Rose, Murray and Stargell

Stargell’s 1979 season and postseason puts him over the top for me

T-Bone
T-Bone
11 years ago

A tough ballot. Because I have voted for Sandberg every year he’s been eligible and he STILL need my vote – Sandberg. I have always been a Dick Allen fan and he also needs my vote – Allen. I am a fan of Santo and have been since he announced he had diabetes the same year I got it but it doesn’t appear that he needs my vote this round, so as much as I hate not to vote for him (And the actual HOF vote that got him in after he passed away really ticked me off BTW) So… Read more »

Aaron Blower
Aaron Blower
11 years ago

Rose, Martinez, Whitaker

Bix
Bix
11 years ago

Rose, Allen, Stargell

Kirk
Kirk
11 years ago

Smoltz, Alomar and Allen

Found an interesting (to me at least) line as I looked at the candidates

AB/BA/OBP/HR/SLG/OPS/RBI
4075/.296/.383/216/.522/.905/743
4069/.257/.257/126/.406/.747/588

Top guy pretty good, but what does he have in common with the second guy?

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

Did the second guy really never walk at all, or is that a misprint? I’m curious, because a .257/.257/.406 line strikes me as pretty odd.

Kirk
Kirk
11 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Sorry!! Should finish my coffee before I type. OBP for second guy should be .342 DUH!

Kirk
Kirk
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

FYI those splits are Santo’s home and away. I was surprised at how much he dropped off on the road.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

I guess it just doesn’t surprise me that much, for a few reasons. Number one, that’s been the knock against Santo as long as I can remember. Number two, a huge percentage of the difference (half the difference in BA and OBP and 3/4 of the difference in SLG) is made up of HR. Wrigley’s been a good hitter’s park in almost every era, so I just don’t find it that surprising that a righty power hitter benefited from a hitter’s park. He took advantage of his situation, much like Larry Walker and Wade Boggs and (to a lesser extent)… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

For players with 4000+ PA at home Santo has the third highest value of tOPS+, 118. That value is exceeded only by Bobby Doerr and Todd Helton.

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

For Boggs (who ties with Santo with a home tOPS+ of 118), knocking out Turner Field (where he had 4 PAs and a 231 tOPS+), his Fenway tOPS+ is 131. His next highest tOPS+ by stadium (and his career regular season PAs there): 124 Shea (12 PAs) 113 Exhibition (164 PAs) And that’s it for tOPS+ over 100. Next on the list is a 98 tOPS+ at Anaheim (369 PAs). Back when the Larry Walker discussions were taking place I found that Boggs hit 292 doubles at Fenway, and 286 not at Fenway, despite having 3803 PAs at Fenway and… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

Lowest tOPS+ for a player in a particular ballpark, 2000 PA minimum: Barry Bonds, 68 at 3 Rivers Stadium.
Second lowest is Gil McDougald, 78 at Yankee Stadium

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

I haven’t messed with the Split Finder much lately, so I’m not 100% sure this is right, but it looks like Gil McDougald has easily the worst home tOPS+ split in history for a relatively long career (min. 2000 PA at home):

Gil McDougald, 78 tOPS+ at home
Johnny Logan, 87
Brady Anderson, 89
Jesus Alou, 89
Casey Blake, 90
Wes Parker, 90
Willie Davis, 90

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

@79:bstar

In addition to your list I got James Loney with 85, Candy Maldonado with 88 and Nate Colbert with 90. It looks like you made the run with AB, not PA, equal to or greater than 2000.

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

Good call, Richard. I had the sense something was afoul with my search.

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

Using Day/Night splits on those same stats for Santo:

AB / BA/OBP / HR / SLG/OPS / RBI
5609 / .288/.376 / 277 / .500/.876 / 988 day
692 / .253/.331 / 65 / .385/.716 / 343 night

Looks like he played for the right team.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

@96
oneblankspace: you made the opposite mistake that bstar made. You entered games (692) instead of AB (2535) for Santo’s night stats.

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

So I did. He had 2535 day AB. The point about Santo doing better for a predominantly daytime team than for one that plays a more balanced schedule still remains.

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
11 years ago
Reply to  Kirk

And now I am getting night and day confused in my typing.

JEV
JEV
11 years ago

Rose, Biggio, Santo

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

Kenny Lofton
Ron Santo
Pete Rose

fireworks
fireworks
11 years ago

Allen, Murray, Sandberg

Francisco
Francisco
11 years ago

Rose, Murray, Biggio

Arsen
Arsen
11 years ago

I’ve given everyone a fresh look and after much consideration I’m dropping my steady vote for Alomar. I’m going with Grich, Santo and Tiant. The Tiant vote is partially for style but he did have at least six fine seasons and a couple of spectacular ones. Santo seems superior to Stargell in just about every way which surprised me. Stargell had such a strong late career (the years I was becoming a fan) that it has always clouded my vision. Santo was pretty much done by the time I was paying attention. I strongly considered Edgar Martinez, Pete Rose and… Read more »

jajacob
jajacob
11 years ago

Whitaker, Murray, Stargell

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Tommy McCraw is one of those “How did he ever stick around for so long?” players. Especially considering he was a first baseman. McCraw’s 8 seasons at first with 90+ games and OPS+ under 100 are exceeded only by Charlie Grimm with 9. Those 8 seasons came consecutively, the longest such streak of seasons for any first baseman to start a career. Probably, McCraw extended his career because it appears he did finally figure out how to hit a bit better: age 22-29: 89 OPS+, age 30-34: 108 OPS+ McCraw had a reputation as a good defensive first baseman but,… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

Dennis Menke played a full season+ at all four infield positions.
He had a stretch of seasons from ’68 -’72 where he was the starting

2B
SS
SS
1B
3B

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Mark Loretta wasn’t a regular at different positions from one season to the next, but he is the only player to log at least 200 games at each of the infield positions.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

In 2007 he started at least 23 games at all 4 positions.

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Yuniesky Betancourt of all flipping people has 46+ starts at every infield position, though that is almost entirely because of the Brewers’ corner infield catastrophe last year.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

@91

Yes, he accomplished that over the last THREE seasons.

John Z
John Z
11 years ago

It is what it is, and a Rose by any other name would smell as ????? or so Juliet tells us.
Santo
Tiant
Rose