Top World Series WPA Games

The top WPA performance so far in the 2013 Series goes to David Ortiz, with a 0.386 score in a losing cause for the Red Sox in game 2. That mark just misses making the table below for the top WPA games by players on the winning and losing teams in each game of the World Series.

Game Winning Team Date WPA Losing Team Date WPA
1 Kirk Gibson 1988-10-15 0.870 Larry Walker 2004-10-23 0.600
2 Ed Sprague 1992-10-18 0.669 Eddie Murray 1979-10-11 0.392
3 Scott Brosius 1998-10-20 0.624 Home Run Baker 1914-10-12 0.370
4 Charlie Keller 1941-10-05 0.829 Bobby Tolan 1972-10-19 0.538
5 Harry Hooper 1915-10-13 0.617 Tom Tresh 1964-10-12 0.410
6 David Freese 2011-10-27 0.964 Josh Hamilton 2011-10-27 0.547
7 Hal Smith 1960-10-13 0.636 Yogi Berra 1960-10-13 0.383
Deciding Hal Smith 1960-10-13 0.636 Fred Schulte 1933-10-07 0.404
Home Team David Freese 2011-10-27 0.964 Pedro Feliz 2009-11-01 0.484
Visiting Team Charlie Keller 1941-10-05 0.829 Larry Walker 2004-10-23 0.600
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/27/2013.

A look back at some memorable Series games after the jump.

Game 1

1988 – Not much to be said about Kirk Gibson’s game that you don’t already know. Except, perhaps, to remind you of the batter preceding Gibson. It was Mike Davis, pinch-hitting for Alfredo Griffin. Davis had hit only .196 that season and had been even worse as a pinch-hitter, with a 5 for 30 line. I guess Tommy Lasorda just had a hunch.  Anyway, Davis worked a walk off a guy who walked almost nobody, and the rest was scripted in the finest Hollywood tradition. Eckersley‘s walk to Davis was just his 12th free pass of the season, and only the second when leading in the 9th inning or later with two outs and the bases empty.

2004 – This series was over quickly as the Red Sox swept. But, game 1 at least was interesting. Boston led 4-0 after an inning and 7-2 after 3, only to find themselves in a 7-7 tie after Larry Walker’s run-scoring double in the 6th. The Red Sox went ahead by two in the 7th but the Cardinals came back to tie it in the 8th, again courtesy of Walker. Well, sort of. Actually, Walker hit what should have been a fly ball out, but all hands were safe and the tying run scored on an error by left-fielder Manny Ramirez.

Game 2

1992 – Like Kirk Gibson, Ed Sprague delivered a 2-run pinch-hit home run with his team down a run in the 9th inning. Sprague’s WPA score is shy of Gibson’s because it was the top of the 9th and because there was only one out. Still, it might have been even more of a turning point than Gibson’s shot. Without Sprague’s heroics, Toronto would have been down 2-0 in the series and forced to win 4 of 5 going against Avery, Glavine and Smoltz.

1979 – Eddie Murray was 3 for 3 off Bert Blyleven with a home run and double, while the rest of the Orioles went 3 for 29, all of them singles. Murray’s double knotted the score at 2-2 in the 6th and there was no further scoring until Manny Sanguillen‘s two-out, pinch-hit, game winning RBI single in the 9th off Oriole closer Don Stanhouse.

Stanhouse, apparently cut from the Bill Lee/Oil Can Boyd cloth, garnered the nickname “Stan the Man Unusual” but earned an even more unusual sobriquet from his manager in Baltimore, Earl Weaver. Stanhouse would often save his best work for after he had gotten himself into a jamb (as evidenced by his 1.376 WHIP this season, a career low), so much so that Weaver nicknamed him “Full Pack” because the chain-smoking skipper said he could go through a full pack during some of Stanhouse’s more perilous appearances.

Game 3

1998 – Scott Brosius enjoyed one of the more dramatic season-to-season OPS+ comebacks in 1998, turning in a 121 score after cratering to 53 in 1997. He also had the good fortune to be traded to one of the best teams of the century in the 114-48 Yankees (how do you get traded to the Yankees after a 53 OPS+ season? by being the PTBNL in the earlier Kenny Rogers trade). So, with everything coming up roses, it’s no surprise that Brosius would finish his dream season with a memorable WS game. The Yankees were down 3-0 when Brosius homered leading off the 7th, but the real heroics were yet to come. In the 8th, Brosius went yard again, this time off closer Trevor Hoffman, trying for the unusual 6-out save. It was a 3-run shot that put the Yankees ahead to stay, for the game and the rest of the series.

1914 – Home Run Baker garnered the bulk of his WPA from two hits, a one-out double in the 9th with the score tied (he was stranded) and a two-out single that plated two runners in the top of the 10th. Alas, his heroics would be for naught as the Braves matched the Athletics’ deuce in their half of the 10th and won it in the 12th when, with the first two runners aboard, Philadelphia pitcher Bullet Joe Bush fielded the inevitable sacrifice bunt but threw wildly trying to nail the lead runner at third base.  The Braves, playing at the almost brand spanking new Fenway Park, completed the series sweep the next day.

Game 4

1941 – Charlie Keller’s lofty WPA score came in the pivotal game of the 1941 Classic with the Yankees up 2 game to 1. Brooklyn had seemingly won the game and tied the series after Hugh Casey struck out Tommy Henrich. But, Mickey Owen‘s passed ball allowed Henrich to reach. Given a new life, the Yankees made of the most of it with a single by Joe DiMaggio followed by a double from Keller that scored both runners to put the Yankees ahead and give New York a 3-1 series stranglehold.

1972 – Down 1-0 in the 8th, the Reds’ Bobby Tolan hit a two-out two-run double off Vida Blue who had just entered the game and walked his first batter, Joe Morgan. Unfortunately for the Reds, their bullpen couldn’t hold a lead either as four straight singles in the 9th (the last two by pinch-hitters Don Mincher and Angel Mangual) plated two runs for an Oakland win and a 3-1 series lead.

Coming off his surprise CYA season the year before, Blue was a contract holdout, eventually extracting a $50,000 raise from the miserly Charlie Finley. Unfortunately for Blue, he didn’t get into game action until late May and never completely found his form, finishing 6-10 with  a 2.80 ERA, but with his SO/9 down by more than 2. For the post-season, he was relegated to the bullpen. Until game 6 of the WS and Oakland’s second shot at clinching the title, when Blue pitched into the 6th inning, allowing 3 runs on 4 hits en route to an 8-1 loss, most of the damage being inflicted on Oakland’s bullpen. Happily for Blue, he regained his form with a 20-win season in 1973 and another in 1975, en route to a 200-win career for the As, Giants and Royals.

Game 5

1915 – Harry Hooper homered to tie the game leading off the 3rd inning, then hit another solo shot in the 9th for the go-ahead and eventual winning run, as the Red Sox clinched their 3rd WS title in as many appearances. Hooper’s two HR game was the first in the post-season since the inaugural Classic 12 years before. It also matched Hooper’s season HR total in 675 PA.

1964 – 1962 AL RoY Tom Tresh came up big with a 2-run HR to tie the game with the Yankees down to their last out. Alas, the Cardinals’ Tim McCarver did Tresh one better, with a 3-run blast in the 10th inning to give the Cards a 3-2 series lead. You could probably win a bet by challenging someone to name all the AL outfielders with 100 HR from 1962 to 1966. Even if you spotted them all the names but one.

Rk Player HR From To
1 Harmon Killebrew 206 1962 1966
2 Rocky Colavito 149 1962 1966
3 Leon Wagner 145 1962 1966
4 Boog Powell 130 1962 1966
5 Bob Allison 127 1962 1966
6 Mickey Mantle 122 1962 1966
7 Al Kaline 120 1962 1966
8 Tom Tresh 114 1962 1966
9 Roger Maris 103 1962 1966
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/28/2013.

Game 6

2011 – Like Kirk Gibson’s game 1 heroics, this game needs no introduction. Down 3-2 in the series, and twice down to their last strike, the Cardinals’ came through to tie the game both times, first on a 2-run triple by David Freese in the 9th, and next in the 10th inning on an RBI single by Lance Berkman (whose 0.828 WPA takes second spot for game 6 honors). Freese capped his game with a walk-off homer leading off the 11th inning, to earn the highest WPA score of any post-season game. Lost among the Cardinal heroics was Josh Hamilton‘s 2-run HR in the 10th that pushed the Rangers’ winning chances to a hefty 93%. Almost a lock, but not quite.

The Cardinals, of course, went on to a game 7 win, becoming the 14th team to come back from a 3-2 series deficit with two wins at home. Only 6 teams have come back from a 3-2 deficit with two wins on the road, the last being the 1979 Pirates against the Orioles.

Game 7

1960 – A bizarre game 7 finished a bizarre series as the Pirates claimed their 3rd World championship, despite losing 3 times by 10+ runs and being outscored in the series by more than a 2:1 margin. The 19 combined runs by the two teams is a game 7 record, and tied with the Yankees and Cubs in 1932 for the most in any World Series clinching game. Pittsburgh had a 3-run lead after 5 innings, only to see that turn into a 3-run deficit when they came to bat in the 8th. That set the stage for reserve catcher Hal Smith, just into the game in relief of starter Smoky Burgess. Smith’s two out, 3 run HR completed a 5-run uprising for the home side, to put them two runs up with only three outs left to go. Likely, Smith wouldn’t have had the chance to deliver that blow but for a bizarre (there’s that word again) bad hop grounder that struck Yankee shortstop Tony Kubek in the throat and forced him from the game. Instead of what looked to be an easy double play opportunity, two out, nobody on turned into two on, nobody out.

Overcoming that misfortune, the Yankees proved their mettle with a 9th inning comeback to tie the contest. After Bobby Richardson and Dale Long got aboard, Mickey Mantle singled in a run, moving Gil McDougald (running for Long) to third base. Another bizarre (yup, I know) play would follow. With one out, Yogi Berra hit a hard grounder that Pirate first baseman Rocky Nelson snared before immediately touching first base. Hesitating momentarily as to whether to throw home to cut down the game-tying run, or to try to retire Mantle, Nelson chose the latter as Mantle, shrewdly assessing that he had no chance to advance, had stopped in the basepath and was standing not 10 feet away from the the Bucs’ lumbering first sacker. Nelson made a lunging tag attempt, but the nimble Mantle eluded him, sliding safely back to first with a headfirst dive. Alas, Mantle’s remarkable play only set the stage for Pirate second baseman Bill Mazeroski to lead off the home 9th with the first ever series-clinching walk-off home run. The WPA from Yogi’s 9th inning RBI groundout and from a 3-run HR to tie the game in the 6th inning puts Berra atop the WPA leaderboard for losing players in a game 7.

Other Games

1933 game 5 – Fred Schulte’s 3-run homer to tie the game in the 6th inning only set the stage for Mel Ott‘s series-clinching home run in the 10th inning. This was the Senators’ 3rd AL crown in 10 years but, 80 years later, it remains the last league championship for any Washington-based club.

2009 game 4 – Pedro Feliz did everything he could to pull the Phillies even in the series. His RBI single in the 4th inning tied the game, and a solo home run in the 8th tied the game again. Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge retired the first two batters in the 9th, but a Johnny Damon single, two stolen bases and a Mark Teixeira HBP all led to RBI hits by Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada to clinch the game for the Bombers and put the Phillies in a 3-1 hole they couldn’t climb out of.

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Thomas
Thomas
11 years ago

What about the 4 (I think) Game 8s that were played?!

But in all seriousness… this is a fantastic post. Great work!

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

Re: The Gibson home run. Amazing how one of the iconic moment’s in baseball history never happened. Gibson fell behind 0-2, then hit a slow roller down the first base line that barely rolled foul. On the next pitch, Ron Hassey fired down to first base and came within inches of picking Mike Davis off.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

oops…”almost never happened”.

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

In stealing second, Davis must have also stolen some of Gibson’s WPA. How rude.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

Yep, Davis stole 4% of the WPA. Had Davis still been on first Gibson would have had a WPA of .910. On the other hand, if Davis were still on first, maybe Eck throws a different pitch….

Kingturtle
Kingturtle
11 years ago

There’s a footnote to all this, something that the Play Index didn’t pick up. Game 6 of the 1986 World Series, Mookie Wilson’s famous at bat had +41% for the Wild Pitch and then +40% for the ground ball error. So Mookie at +81% for the plate appearance.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

Quick quiz for anyone who’s around: What did Jeff Weaver do in this game that no other pitcher has done in the World Series?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN200610270.shtml

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Is it “having the biggest batting WPA event for the winning team in a clincher”?

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

It is WPA related but nothing to do with a clincher.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

It’s possible that RJs answer is correct but I’m going for something that searchable via the PI.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

Just checked and Matt Moore also did it:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN198910280.shtml

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Cool stuff. That’s Mike Moore though, Matt was but a four-month old at the time of that game. 🙂

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Win a game saved by a pitcher who would later be a Game 1 starter… while throwing two wild pitches.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

He had a .114 WPA as a batter, while going 0-3.

Only Eckstein’s .116 was higher on his team.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

You’re basically have the pieces Voomo so I’ll give it to you.

Thirty-nine pitchers have had a WPA greater than +0.1 as a batter in a WS game. Weaver is the only one to do it without a base hit.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, I agree with both points.

In a way, I’m glad the outcome sort of mooted all the questionable managerial decisions.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago

Last WS pitcher with 2 wins of at least 7 IP and 1 run or less — 1990, Jose Rijo.

Last with 2 wins of more than 7 IP and 1 run or less — 1985, Bret Saberhagen. Before that, 1971, Steve Blass. (Sabes and Blass both had 2 CG.)

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

Excellent post Doug. I found it interesting that the Braves played their 1914 WS games at Fenway. Evidently they abandoned their home park, South End Grounds, in August of 1914 and played the remainder of their home games at Fenway. This continued until August 1915 when the new Braves Field was completed. Of course they returned the favor by letting the Sox play their 1915-1916 WS games at Braves Field, which had a larger seating capacity.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago

I’m getting to this late, but I would like to say a word in defense of Rocky Nelson, who was NOT a lumbering first baseman at all. You must be thinking of Dick Stuart, the Bucs’ other first sacker in 1960, the one Nelson platooned with and replaced in late innings for defensive purposes. Nelson was quite possibly the best minor league player of the 1950’s, winning the IL triple crown twice. He had bad luck early in his career, being platooned in St. Louis and Pittsburgh with lesser players. In 1952 he was sent to the Dodgers who had… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago

Bravo, nsb! I did not know about Rocky Nelson’s awesome minor-league career. And he wasn’t exploiting home-run havens — in 1953, ’55 and ’58, he hit more HRs than any two of his teammates.

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
11 years ago

I hope I´m not alone on this, but I find a tremendous amount of interest in the stories about the careers of minor leaguers, specially hitters with Home Run power that couldn´t make to/in The Show.

Rocky Nelson´s yearly stats reminds me those of Mexican League legend Hector Espino, and more recently Joey Meyer and Jon Knott.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago

Nelson is not the only player to get stuck in the Dodgers minor league system behind the institution that was Gil Hodges either.

When Rocky departed for Toronto in 1957 he was replaced by Jim Gentile who spent the next 3 years cooling his heals before finally getting his break in the 1960 expansion draft with Baltimore.

Jimbo
Jimbo
11 years ago

So how high would Ortiz WPA be if Beltran doesn’t catch his grand slam?