Since playoffs were expanded to include the wild card round in 1995, there have been 103 starting pitcher performances that have resulted in a game score of 75 or more. That’s an average of 5.42 per year. This year’s total of 11 is more than twice the average, and is equaled only by the 11 such outings in 2010.
We’ll take a look at 2013’s 11 performances after the jump.
| Rk | Player | Date | Series | Gm# | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Wacha | 2013-10-18 | NLCS | 6 | STL | LAD | W 9-0 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 95 | 63 | 77 | 0.207 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | 2013-10-15 | ALCS | 3 | DET | BOS | L 0-1 | GS-8 ,L | 8.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 120 | 85 | 79 | 0.277 |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | 2013-10-13 | ALCS | 2 | DET | BOS | L 5-6 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 108 | 69 | 80 | 0.331 |
| 4 | Anibal Sanchez | 2013-10-12 | ALCS | 1 | DET | BOS | W 1-0 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 116 | 66 | 78 | 0.366 |
| 5 | Zack Greinke | 2013-10-11 | NLCS | 1 | LAD | STL | L 2-3 | GS-8 | 8.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 104 | 68 | 75 | 0.268 |
| 6 | Justin Verlander | 2013-10-10 | ALDS | 5 | DET | OAK | W 3-0 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 111 | 76 | 87 | 0.416 |
| 7 | Michael Wacha | 2013-10-07 | NLDS | 4 | STL | PIT | W 2-1 | GS-8 ,W | 7.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 96 | 60 | 79 | 0.249 |
| 8 | Justin Verlander | 2013-10-05 | ALDS | 2 | DET | OAK | L 0-1 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 117 | 73 | 79 | 0.427 |
| 9 | Sonny Gray | 2013-10-05 | ALDS | 2 | OAK | DET | W 1-0 | GS-8 | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 111 | 65 | 81 | 0.529 |
| 10 | Clayton Kershaw | 2013-10-03 | NLDS | 1 | LAD | ATL | W 6-1 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 124 | 77 | 76 | 0.194 |
| 11 | Adam Wainwright | 2013-10-03 | NLDS | 1 | STL | PIT | W 9-1 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 105 | 71 | 76 | 0.160 |
Choosing 75 as the cutoff might seem arbitrary, but it’s not. At 75, 102 of the 103 games since 1995 were outings of seven innings or more, with Anibal Sanchez’s 12-strikeout, no-hit performance in this year’s ALCS being the exception. Reducing the cutoff to 74 would result in four out of 122 games of less than seven innings, including John Lackey’s ALCS game 3.
A few comments about this year’s list:
- The starting pitcher’s team actually lost four of the 11 games, with Detroit on the wrong end of three of them, including two of the three pitched by Justin Verlander.
- St. Louis can claim three such performances, two by rookie Michael Wacha and one by Adam Wainwright, while their World Series opponent is the only LCS participant with no pitchers on the list.
- In both of Wacha’s performances, he threw less than 100 pitches in 7+ innings. It’s doubtful he’ll be able to be as efficient against Boston, so he’ll likely have to run up a higher pitch count in order to get through seven innings.
- Verlander’s ALDS-clinching performance (8 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 10 SO, 0 R) is still the gold standard of this postseason.
Of course, there’s still the World Series to be played, so there’s a chance 2013 will separate itself from 2010 by this measure of starting pitcher performance. In fact, there’s been at least one such performance in each of the last four World Series (2012 – Madison Bumgarner; 2011 – Derek Holland, Jaime Garcia; 2010 – Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner; 2009 – Cliff Lee).
It would seem obvious to say Wainwright–who also recorded a 78 game score in 2009’s NLDS–and Wacha are the most likely pitchers to add to this total, although Red Sox starters Jon Lester and John Lackey–who accomplished the feat 11 years ago in the ALCS–are strong candidates as well.
Anything else to add? What starting pitchers do you think have the best chance of posting a game score of 75 or more in this year’s World Series?
