Pirates-Reds Wild Card game: Let’s hear some chatter! |

Your thoughts? Here are a few of my disordered brainwaves:

Through 16 outs and 30 batters, no Pirate has struck out. Last postseason game with no whiffs by one side was game 2 of the 2002 World Series — Giants faced 40 Angels batters, 2 walks, 38 batted balls.

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On the passel of hit-batsmen between these teams: Whenever you see what seems an intentional plunking in an AL game, some old-schooler claims that the pitcher wouldn’t have dared if he had to bat. OK … In 19 regular-season games between Pirates and Reds, there were 28 hit batsmen, 17 of those by starting pitchers. Not one pitcher was hit by a pitch.

And who was hit in those games? The MLB leader with 26 HBP, Shin-Soo Choo, absorbed 7 of 12 for the Reds. Starling Marte, #2 with 24, took 5 of 16 for the Bucs. I’m sure that there was some bad blood, but a lot of those ouchies were incidental.

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Pittsburgh’s last postseason home run in 1992, and their first in 2013, were both hit by right-fielders with Mets connections. (Lloyd McClendon was drafted by New York, then dealt to the Reds to reacquire Tom Seaver.)

Marlon Byrd, by the way, finished 16th in NL WAR (tied with Yasiel Puig, just ahead of Carlos Gonzalez and Jayson Werth), and 6th in extra-base hits (tied with McCutchen).

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Darien

11 years ago

I know it’s Dusty Baker, and managing a pitching staff ain’t precisely something he’s good at, but I was REALLY surprised when Cueto came out and he went to Sean Marshall. Marshall’s a good pitcher, but he spent almost the whole season hurt and only threw ten innings — seven of them in April and May.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a little bit more fan interference here in the top 8th?

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John Autin

I’ll bring this around to the current game eventually … I read a suggestion somewhere that this year’s decline in 30-HR men reflects effective PED testing. Seems like a big leap in reasoning, using an arbitrary threshold. Yes, only 13 guys hit 30+ HRs, down from 27 and 24 the prior two years, and the fewest since shortened ’94. But the HR rate was down just about 5% this year vs. 2012. That might not be trivial –- but the rate still was higher than 2011 and 2010. What we’re seeing is the continued spreading of power throughout the lineup.… Read more »

Reply to John Autin

I can see how PED decline could be behind this. Imagine that PED use wouldn’t increase home run rates evenly — a few heavy users would become monster outliers, considerably more, lighter users would see smaller improvements, and so forth. But there’s another side to it: pitchers and fielders who were on PEDs would (or so the story goes) be better at their jobs as well, which would help to mitigate the rise somewhat. The expected results would be an unusually high number of player seasons with a TON of home runs (reflecting the serious abusers), but not a significant… Read more »

Francisco Liriano (perhaps unfortunately) gives hope to every team clutching at straws with some pitcher who was good a long time ago.

Liriano’s 2011-12 seasons were carbon copies of crapitude, combining for a 5.23 ERA, 79 ERA+, 5.0 BB/9 and 1.48 WHIP, in almost 300 innings. And now he’s a hero.

Hey, I’m happy for him and for Pittsburgh. But at least 90% of those reclamation projects fail. And maybe 90% of those that succeed involve a guy going from AL to NL.

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birtelcom

Liriano’s pitching WAR was 3.0 this season, tops on the Pirates in 2013. The Bucs were the only team over .500 this year with no pitchers over 3.0 WAR.

Doug

Maybe 90% fail, but Pittsburgh’s had two in a row that have turned out very well. Atlanta has done pretty well in this department too. Having the right pitching coach who can fix mechanics and psyches would seem to be the prerequisite. Last NL to AL reclamation? How about Jamey Wright. For 11 seasons as an NL starter (1996-2006), he had only one season of 100+ IP and ERA+ over 100, but 6 seasons of 125+ IP and ERA+ of 91 or less, 5 of them at 88 or less. Since then, he’s 106 ERA+ as a middle reliever consistently… Read more »

Reply to Doug

Scott Kazmir. Last year a 5.34 ERA for an Independent League team. This year a 4.04 ERA (3.38 second half). And even though he didn’t change teams, I think Ubaldo Jimenez deserves mention. 4.68 ERA in 2011 (5.10 with Cleveland), 5.40 ERA in 2012. And he started this season with a 10.06 ERA in his first 4 starts but finished at 3.30 including 1.82 in the second half. Terry Francona has a good chance of winning Manager of the Year but it really ought to go to the Indians pitching coach. Not just Kazmir and Jimenez but also Kluber and… Read more »

Where has Timmy Pea been? I hear that McCutchen’s mom sang the anthem again….

Voomo Zanzibar

I watched the Sid Bream game with my Pittsburgh-bred college roommate.
Later that year he tried to rappel off of the chimney of his parents’ house. The chimney collapsed, he fell 30 feet to the driveway, and the chimney fell on top of him, brick by brick.

I’m telling you, the people of Pittsburgh f’ing NEED this.

Looking ahead to the LDS, Pittsburgh has done fairly well this year against Wainwright and Lynn.

Wainwright’s allowed 3 HR in 21 IP over 3 starts with a 3.00 ERA. Lynn had 5 starts against the Bucs, but only 27 IP with a 5.6o ERA, including 3 HR and 12 walks allowed.

Most Career Post-Season Home Runs By a Pirates Catcher: 2, by Russell Martin 1, by Manny Sanguillen, Hal Smith and Don Slaught Indeed, Martin is now in the top 10 in Pirates career post-season homers overall: 1. Willie Stargell 7 2. Bob Robertson 6 3. Richie Hebner 4 T4. Al Oliver, Roberto Clemente and Jay Bell 3 T7. Russell Martin, Bill Mazeroski, Fred Clarke and Jose Lind 2 Martin is the eighth catcher to hit two homers in a post-season game. Hall of Famers Carter, Bench and Berra each did it, plus Gene Tenace, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli and Kelly… Read more »

Reply to birtelcom

Mazeroski will forever be remembered for game 7 of the 1960 World Series. But, to me, the real hero of that game was Hal Smith with his two out 3-run HR (worth 0.63 WPA) that put the Pirates ahead after trailing 7-4 to start the 8th inning. If the Yankees don’t tie it in the 9th, Smith would be the guy everyone remembers.

Confirming you observation, Doug, Win Probability Added for Maz’s homer was 37%, much lower than Smith’s. Smith’s was the highest WPA homer in a World Series game until Kirk Gibson, although Gibson’s was in a Game 1, not Game 7. Joe Carter also later topped Smith in WPA, though even that one was Game 6 (and thus not a do or die game for Carter’s Blue Jays) rather than 7.

Do we read anything into Dusty Baker’s lack of playoff success or is it just one of those things? There seems to be a pattern of underachievement, often combined with fiascoes.

Reply to RJ

I read things into it, but I’m still mad at Dusty Baker over Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. So I like to hunt for excuses to blame things on him. 😉

RJ, I don’t have anything to say for Dusty. But don’t you think the circumstances of this wild-card game favored the Pirates by at least 2 to 1? — Pirates were 50-31 at home, Reds 41-41 on the road. — Pirates won the season series, 11-8. — Reds were vulnerable to lefties, going 27-25 in their starts. I would have liked to see Chapman get in the game. But the two biggest leverage spots were the 3rd and 4th innings, each starting with the Bucs ahead by 2 runs: — There’s a case for using Chapman in the 3rd, with… Read more »