COG 1945 Round Results: Carew Cut Above

Much debate and discussion this round, but the top choice was clear from early on — Rod Carew is the 29th inductee into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats.  More on Carew and the voting after this message from our sponsors  the jump.

Over the last 80 seasons (1934-2013), 85 major leaguers have played at least 1,000 games at second base.  The top five batting averages among that group in those games at second base:
1. Rod Carew .329
2. Charlie Gehringer .326
3. Robinson Cano .309
4. Billy Herman .307
5. Placido Polanco .304

Over the last 80 seasons (1934-2013), 95 major leaguers have played at least 1,000 games at first base.  The top five batting averages among that group in those games at first base:
1. Rod Carew .326
2. Stan Musial .323
3. Albert Pujols .322
4. Todd Helton .318
5. Jimmie Foxx .317

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In the red list of Circle of Great inductees that goes at the bottom of each of these results posts, I’ve recently been listing the players by the primary position each played in the majors.  Where does Rod Carew go?

He played slightly more games at first base (1,184) than at second base (1,130).  But baseball-reference’s Wins Above Replacement suggests he created a bit  more value in his career as a second baseman than as a first baseman.  From his debut in 1967 through 1975, Carew was, essentially, only a second baseman (starting over 1,000 games at second and only about 20 games at other positions in that period).  During that period, he accumulated 42.4 WAR of his career total of 81.4 WAR, so about 52% of his career value.  Of the remaining 48% of his career value according to WAR, a few percent were likely generated at DH, were he played about 5% of his games after 1975.  So if we figure Carew generated about 52% of his career value as a second basemen, about 46% as a first baseman, and about 2% as a DH (his OPS as a DH was .868, compared to his career OPS of .822), it seems to me second base is where he belongs in our list.

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–The focus in recent rounds has been mostly on position players, both as inductees and in getting most of the holdover votes.  But pitchers are making a comeback.  This round there was strong support (30% plus) for both holdover Nolan Ryan and ballot newcomer Jim Palmer, plus a second pitcher in the newcomer list, Don Sutton, received enough support to join the holdover group.  The hurlers are returning to COG attention, and the next ballot will surely add to that trend.

–Ryan, Palmer and Sutton all had unusual careers that provoked lively discussion in the comments.  How does  one compare Ryan’s historically prolific and extreme high K/high BB career to Sutton’s long, steady, reliable if unspectacular presence to Palmer’s brilliant success supported by one of the great set of fielders ever to back a pitcher?  To wrestle with such dilemmas is one of the things the COG was made for.

–The other nine holdovers besides Ryan were simply treading water this round.  All topped 10% support, avoiding using up any accumulated eligibility.  But they also all fell below 25% support, thus failing to gain any additional eligibility.

As usual, you can check out the complete voting record for this past round at Google Docs.  The link is here: COG 1945 Round Vote Tally

If you would like to review the history of the COG voting, a spreadsheet summary of the voting is here: COG Vote Summary , with a summary of the raw vote totals on Sheet 1 and a summary of the percentage totals on Sheet 2.

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The Circle of Greats membership thus far:
Bert Blyleven, P
Roger Clemens, P
Tom Glavine, P
Randy Johnson, P
Greg Maddux, P
Mike Mussina, P
Curt Schilling, P
Johnny Bench, C
Gary Carter, C
Carlton Fisk, C
Mike Piazza, C
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Rod Carew, 2B
Wade Boggs, 3B
George Brett, 3B
Mike Schmidt, 3B
Barry Larkin, SS
Cal Ripken, Jr., SS
Ozzie Smith, SS
Alan Trammell, SS
Robin Yount, SS
Rickey Henderson, LF
Tim Raines, LF
Barry Bonds, LF
Tony Gwynn, RF
Reggie Jackson, RF
Larry Walker, RF
Paul Molitor, DH
Frank Thomas, DH

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MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago

Looking at the rapid inductions of Carew, Boggs and Gwynn, it seems clear that winning batting titles impresses even the HHS crowd!

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I don’t question if any of them belong in this Hall or the one in Cooperstown. I do wonder though if Carew had less batting titles, but walked more, but in essence producing the same overall value without the batting tiles if he (or Gwynn) would have been elected as rapidly. I am surprised when I look at Gwynn’s and Carew’s similarity scores that they are not #1 for the other, but Carew’s top match is Boggs, while Gwynn’s is Wheat. Outside of position, Carew and Gwynn always felt like the same player. Carew, Gwynn and Boggs are products of… Read more »

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Carew and Gwynn *are* reasonably similar, though, as Carew is #2 on Gwynn’s similarity score list, and Gwynn is Carew’s #3. But Carew racked up significantly more WAR (81.2 vs 68.9), mostly due to a longer & higher peak, as well as Gwynn’s dWAR suffering over the last 1/2 of his career.

Also, timing. Gwynn came on the ballot the same year as Ripken, then 2 years later Henderson & Boggs showed up, & so on.

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

It took Gwynn 15 ballots to get elected, the most of anyone who’s been elected so far.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

Thanks. I disappeared over much of the summer months due to work requirements, so I must of lost track of the number of ballots he was on before election.

robbs
robbs
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Gotta watch out for the stupid real jobs that keep us away from baseball.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  robbs

Yes, those real jobs can be a problem at times as I’ve been more out of country than in!

mosc
mosc
11 years ago

How about Molitor gets listed as UI rather than DH? He spent 13,000 innings in the field, hardly seems fair to call him a DH. He spent more time at DH than anything else by only a small margin. You might make a career war argument similarly to Carew about Molitor at 3B. I think Molitor should be listed at UI because he spent more of his years doing that than anything else.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  mosc

I think of Edgar Martinez as a DH. Molitor played nearly 1500 games at a variety of positions, including all across the infield. The DH did allow him to play from his mid-30s on, he was too versatile and athletic to be considered just a DH.