Circle of Greats 1945 Balloting

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This post is for voting and discussion in the twenty-ninth round of balloting for the Circle of Greats. This round adds those players born in 1945. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full group eligible to receive your votes this round. The new group of 1945-born players must, as always, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM EDT on Sunday, September 15, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM EDT Friday, September 13.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: 1945 COG Vote Tally . I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the new born-in-1945 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The ten current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The new group of 1945 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:
Lou Whitaker (eligibility guaranteed for 11 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
Nolan Ryan (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
Bobby Grich (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1945, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Jay Johnstone
Rod Carew
Hal McRae
Rick Monday
Reggie Smith
Larry Bowa
Davey Lopes
Mike Lum
Larry Biittner
Duffy Dyer
Ralph Garr
Bobby Tolan
Ted Sizemore
Bob Stinson
Dave Duncan
George Mitterwald
Bill Melton

Pitchers (born in 1945, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Don Sutton
Jim Palmer
Rick Wise
Ken Holtzman
Dick Drago
Blue Moon Odom
Geoff Zahn
Dock Ellis
Andy Messersmith
Tom Murphy
Don Wilson

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David Horwich

11 years ago

Alomar, Carew, Martinez Tough round. I’ve never been a huge Rod Carew fan, but it’s hard to deny him a vote; he had a fine peak from 1972-78, and his overall career is essentially Tony Gwynn as an infielder. Jim Palmer…a worthy member of the HoF, to be sure, but I can’t shake a sneaking suspicion that if he’d played on a lesser team – a lesser defensive team, in particular – he wouldn’t even be in the discussion. He’s one of those guys whose ERA consistently outperformed his FIP, & as such there’s a significant disparity between his bWAR… Read more »

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

Thanks, David, I’ve corrected the errors you identified.

Hartvig

11 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

I’m going to need some time to decide that to do about Palmer. Bill James ranks him as the 17th best pitcher in his New Historical Baseball Abstract. Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats ranks him 38th among pitchers but his score of 127 puts him in the top 100 or so of eligible players. Jay Jaffe JAWS ranks him 37th among pitchers but makes to adjustment for pre-1900 pitchers so there are 14 pitchers who’s careers were centered before 1900 ahead of him including players like Charlie Buffington, Mickey Welch and Jim McCormick plus Pedro Martinez who’s too young for… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

_______________________
Palmer v Sutton v Ryan:

RA9OPP

4.14 Palmer
4.16 Sutton
4.17 Ryan
____________

RA9

3.18 Palmer
3.58 Sutton
3.64 Ryan
____________

RA9 through age 38 (when Palmer finished)

3.18 Palmer
3.43 Sutton
3.59 Ryan
___________

RA9DEF

0.33 Palmer
0.09 Sutton
-0.06 Ryan
___________
___________
___________

Nolan Ryan, aged 39-46

25 WAR
1.146 WHIP
1450 IP

11 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

David H – No one, with the possible exception of Dave Cameron at Fangraphs, thinks FIP is a useful measure to evaluate a pitcher’s career. At best, it’s seen as a tool that has some predictive value for how someone may pitch in the future. Honestly, it’s become beyond embarrassing that Fangraphs continues to cling to such as outmoded concept. I get that Dave doesn’t trust the defensive measures and yet he has no problem using those very same defensive measures to evaluate position players. How does that make any sense? Meanwhile, points in Palmer’s favor: *68.1 career pitching WAR… Read more »

David Horwich

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

Ed @ 21 – I agree that Palmer is a good candidate, as mentioned I would vote for him before Ryan. I also agree that FIP is better as a predictive tool than an evaluative one. I wasn’t advocating for it in general, but I do think in Palmer’s case it may hint at the possibility that he was a more fielding-dependent pitcher than some, and that without Belanger and Blair and Grich and Robinson et al. behind him he might have had a good but not HoF career. (Palmer’s Gold Gloves don’t carry much weight with me, given the… Read more »

Phil

11 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

I got into a protracted, two- or three-day argument on a message board once about the ’73 Cy Young vote. The other guy proposed that, knowing what we know today, there was simply no justification for voting Palmer over Blyleven. I argued that, yes, Blyleven probably had the stronger case, but a vote for Palmer would be reasonable, then and now—depended what stats you emphasized, and how much weight you gave to the obvious difference in their teams. The argument got progressively nastier. Somewhere in there, I e-mailed Bill James for his opinion. He wrote a long response on his… Read more »

brp

11 years ago

Reply to Phil

If you had Grich, Belanger, and Robinson playing infield defense would you try to strike everyone out or try to induce grounders?

Anyway, voting for:
Lofton
Carew
Palmer

11 years ago

Reply to brp

Good point BRP! And don’t forget Paul Blair in center!!!

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to brp

Yes, Palmer pitched in front of great defenses, but his bWAR total is POST-defense. The 68 WAR is after his team’s defense is taken out of the equation, so it’s suggesting that Palmer would have had 68 WAR regardless of what team he pitched for.

It’s really his wins total (and his ERA+) that are helped by his team’s great defense, not his WAR.

Bix

11 years ago

Carew, Palmer, Sandberg

Mike

11 years ago

Jim Palmer
Rod Carew
Craig Biggio

Gary Bateman

11 years ago

Alomar, Carew, Smoltz

MikeD

11 years ago

Ryan, Alonar, Carew.

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

I’ve decided to try something new this round. Since I always vote for Whitaker and he hasn’t been very close to getting in lately, I thought I’d vote for someone else in the hope that this would get Lou elected. (I find this to be a dependable strategy for life in general – it never works.) Lining up prospects, I looked at Grich, Carew, Sandberg, Alomar, as well as Whitaker for position players (nice variety of positions there), and Palmer and Smoltz for pitchers, along with Ryan, just for comparative purposes. I calculated WAR per 9-IP for the pitchers, and… Read more »

paget

11 years ago

Reply to e pluribus munu

epm- I don’t think you should feel equivocal about voting for Carew (even less so for voting Carew over Grich). In my opinion, Grich has been ignored/undervalued for so long that there is a tendency to exaggerate his accomplishments relative to baseball immortals. Grich was an excellent player all the way to the end of his career, and he had some isolated seasons that were truly extraordinary (1979, 1981). But comparing him to Carew? *Carew got on base over *1000* times more often than Grich, and in only 2000 or so more PA. There’s virtually no dip in Carew’s performance… Read more »

Dr. Doom

11 years ago

Reply to paget

Comparing walks to singles, without noting that Grich was a better defender and hit for significantly more power is very, very specious argumentation. True. On a hits/walks basis, in which the only possible hit is a single, Carew is more valuable. Carew had 1200 more hits than Grich… but only 1000 more Total Bases. Their actual SLG and OBP are very close, and thus the edge that Carew has in OPS+ (131 to 125) is a lot closer to being reflective of their different values (on a rate basis) than their batting averages or hit totals. Grich was an outstanding… Read more »

paget

11 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

I just don’t find your argument tenable at all, at least as regards their offensive value. 1)In a sense your comment about their difference in Total Bases vs. difference in Hits actually substantiates my way of looking at the question of these players’ relative offensive worth: the fact that the numbers are so close (1200hits vs 1000TB) means that in effect one can control for power in their case (TB from extra base hits), and simply examine the difference of their value based on the question of how many more times on base Carew has, and how many more of… Read more »

Insert Name Here

11 years ago

Reply to e pluribus munu

I find this idea of WAR/5 G or WAR/9 IP to be very interesting. As you may see @36 below, I use my own method of WAR/162 during peak years. The top four of this round by my method are: Lofton, Grich, Palmer, Carew The top four of this round by your method are: Grich, Smoltz/Palmer (tied), Carew At least, that’s what my initial observation was, until checking your results and finding that you’ve miscaculated Palmer’s WAR/9 IP. I’ve calculated .155 WAR/9 IP for Palmer. Also, Lofton (my #1 guy), has .162 WAR/5 G, placing him just behind Carew and… Read more »

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Reply to Insert Name Here

That’s what I get for doing my calculations on my 1980s high-tech wristwatch after midnight, INH. My wristwatch now confirms your figure. Stupid watch. Now I’ll have to think about changing my vote to Grich . . . but here’s paget telling me in convincing detail that I need to stick to my guns, even if my watch doesn’t have the courage of its convictions! And what about Lofton, whom I didn’t check simply because I never felt he was HoF (much less CoG) material, using uninformed fan prejudices, when he was in uniform (I knew Palmer would be in… Read more »

Darien

11 years ago

I’m gonna keep pushing this stone: Ryan, Biggio, and Lofton.

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Did you know that:
____________________

Reggie Smith had a 64.4 WAR career
__________________________________

Davey Lopes stole 47 bases at age forty (in 99 games)

In 29 of those games he had less than 2 PA (three steals in those games).
That means he stole 44 bases in 70 games as a starter.
______________________________________________________

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Re: Davey Lopes’s 47 steals in 99 games at age 40: — In modern MLB history, only one other player age 34 or older has had such a rate of SB/G and more than 2 steals: Lou Brock, 118 steals at age 35. — Only Davey and Rickey had 40+ steals in a season age 39 or older. — Those ’85 Cubs were 2nd in SB to the Coleman/McGee Cardinals — but the Cubs had the best success rate, 79%. Sandberg swiped 54 with just 11 CS, his only year with 40+ steals. Keith Moreland went 12-3 — Keith Moreland!… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yes I did know that Reggie Smith had 60+ career WAR. I expect him to get completely overlooked in the balloting.

And so far no love for 300 game winner Don Sutton.

Jeff Hill

11 years ago

I am going to start voting based on what I consider a “dominance” in a players career. Whether it’s HR, OBP, K’s whatever…So many of these guys are relativly close statistically(Smoltz and Palmer oddly enough)and I feel it will help me decide. Other factors will be included obviously but a player such as Biggio or Murray won’t like the end result since they in fact fall in the “really good at alot of things but never great catgory”. With that said… Ryan: toughest pitcher to hit EVER per 9 AND the all time easiest way to prevent an error, strike… Read more »

11 years ago

Rick Monday was the first ever #1 overall draft pick (by the KC A’s in 1965). He had a fine, if somewhat disappointing career, putting up 33.2 career WAR. Oddly he never topped 4.4 WAR in any single season.

Dr. Doom

11 years ago

Rod Carew
Bobby Grich
Ryne Sandberg

2nd-base only for me this round. We’re gonna get ONE of them in there!

Chris C

11 years ago

Trying to choose among the pitchers (Ryan, Palmer, Smoltz, Sutton) is starting to feel like choosing among our 2nd basemen. I’m getting a headache just thinking about this vote. I need to think more about this.

Nick Pain

11 years ago

Nolan Ryan, Rod Carew, Eddie Murray

RonG

11 years ago

Ryan, Palmer, Carew

11 years ago

Rod Carew, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker

Dr. Remulak

11 years ago

Biggio, Palmer, Carew.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Don Wilson is on the eligible list this round despite only nine seasons in the majors — one of those rare cases where a player makes the COG eligible list based on the 20 or more WAR criterion despite fewer than 10 MLB seasons. Generally, any player with 20 or more WAR in less than 10 seasons is going to be good enough to be playing beyond nine seasons. Don Wilson’s disturbing death at age 29 is one of the saddest stories in all of baseball history. http://seamheads.com/2010/10/12/the-mysterious-and-tragic-death-of-don-wilson/ The top six Astros pitchers in WAR through age 29 are Roy… Read more »

KalineCountry

11 years ago

Lou Whitaker.
Bobby Grich.
Jim Palmer.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to KalineCountry

Palmer’s career overlaps Kaline’s on the back end of Al’s career, but even taking that into account Palmer did a good job of keeping Kaline in check. Kaline vs. Palmer: 56 PAs, .217 BA/.321 OBP/.370 SLG/.690 OPS.

latefortheparty

11 years ago

Rod Carew
Lou Whitaker
Reggie Smith

Great ballot. I expect Ryan to be elected in the next round or two and, while he deserves it, I’m going to let others take care of it so I can vote for other players. For instance, I wanted to be sure Reggie Smith gets some love. And shouts to Jim Palmer and Don Sutton. And on and on and on.

Phil

11 years ago

Carew, Alomar, Palmer. Carew was one of my first favourite players—still remember the excitement of checking the paper every morning in ’78 when he made a serious run at .400. (That’s how we used to do it.) And that great Sports Illustrated cover he shared with Ted Williams in ’77:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/cover/featured/8546/index.htm

He was also on the cover of Time that year.

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

Reply to Phil

Oh man I’m with ya 100% Phil (although it was 1977 that Rod gave us the Great Chase). Carew is indisputably among the greatest pure hitters the game has ever seen. He was the first of the trio of he, Boggs and Gwynn, who over a 30+ year period were clearly superior to all other hitters in the game, with the lone exception of Brett’s 1980 season. So just how good was Rod Carew you ask. Here’s a table with career BAs, league-wide BAs for those same years (park-normalized), ratios of the two, and those ratios re-normalized relative to the… Read more »

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

Reply to Phil

Updated table, adding Pujols, Cabrera, Aaron, Clemente, Oliva, and Mantle, giving n=20. (Willie Mays does not make the cut!) Cobb 0.366 0.273 1.341 1.156 Gwynn 0.338 0.262 1.290 1.112 Hornsby 0.358 0.282 1.270 1.095 Carew 0.328 0.260 1.262 1.088 Williams 0.344 0.277 1.242 1.071 Speaker 0.345 0.278 1.241 1.070 Ichiro 0.319 0.260 1.227 1.058 Boggs 0.328 0.268 1.224 1.055 Wagner 0.328 0.268 1.224 1.055 Pujols 0.321 0.263 1.221 1.052 Musial 0.331 0.272 1.217 1.049 Cabrera 0.321 0.265 1.211 1.045 Clemente 0.317 0.262 1.210 1.043 Ruth 0.342 0.285 1.200 1.035 Gehrig 0.340 0.286 1.189 1.025 Oliva 0.304 0.258 1.178 1.016 DiMaggio… Read more »

paget

11 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

Wow, impressive to see Oliva on that list. Too bad his career got cut so short. ’64 to ’71 he was one of the very best in the game.

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Phil

I have really fond memories of the summer of ’77. There wasn’t nearly as much baseball on TV as nowadays, but when there was, they were always cutting to Carew at-bats live so we could watch him effortlessly flick outside pitches into left-center.

George Foster tore up the National League that summer, too.

koma

11 years ago

John Smoltz, Nolan Ryan, Craig Biggio

J.R.

11 years ago

Ryan, Biggio, Palmer. Tough for me to leave Grich off, but I’ll trade on Oriole for another this time. Biggio gets my vote over Grich on account of his fewer eligible rounds.

Andy

11 years ago

Ryan, Carew, Palmer

Insert Name Here

11 years ago

Initial vote, based solely on merit: 1. Kenny Lofton (6.7 WAR/162 during 1992-99) 2. Bobby Grich (6.6 WAR/162 during 1972-83) 3. Jim Palmer (5.9 WAR/162 during 1969-78) Other potentially worthy candidates: 4. Rod Carew (7.5 WAR/162 during 1972-78) 5. Ryne Sandberg (6.2 WAR/162 during 1984-92) 6. Craig Biggio (5.8 WAR/162 during 1991-99) 7. Lou Whitaker (5.5 WAR/162 during 1979-93) 8. Eddie Murray (5.7 WAR/162 during 1978-86) 9. Edgar Martínez (6.4 WAR/162 during 1995-2001) 10. Reggie Smith (6.2 WAR/162 during 1968-74) 11. Roberto Alomar (6.0 WAR/162 during 1996-2001) 12. John Smoltz (5.8 WAR/162 during 1995-99) 13. Nolan Ryan (5.6 WAR/162 during… Read more »

Insert Name Here

11 years ago

Reply to Insert Name Here

VOTE CLARIFICATION: I checked the spreadsheet and found it interesting how Rod Carew has so much more support than Palmer (or Lofton or anyone else) so far. I was torn between Palmer, Grich, and Carew for my last two slots (I still contend Lofton is the most deserving on the ballot), concluding, based on WAR/162 matchups, that Carew is better than Grich, and that Grich is better than Palmer, but that Palmer is better than Carew. I’ll keep my vote as it is for now, but may make changes later.

Artie Z.

11 years ago

Reply to Insert Name Here

I read your methodology earlier, but the problem I have with this particular ranking is that Lofton, in his 1992-1999 years, totaled 47.3 WAR. Carew, in his 1972-1978 years, totaled 49.2 WAR. So in one less year Carew has already generated more WAR than Lofton in their respective spans. It’s the same thing with Grich. From 1972-1983 Grich totaled 63.3 WAR. That is the only 11-year period in which Grich totaled over 60 WAR (he does have at least 2 more over 59 – 59.8 from 1971-1982 and 59.1 from 1973-1984). Carew totaled: 1967-1978 – 63.8 WAR 1968-1979 – 63.6… Read more »

Insert Name Here

11 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

“Carew did play about 50 more games and have about 400 more PAs” — Exactly. My metric goes on WAR/162 G, not just plain total WAR or even WAR/season. That said, Grich, Palmer, and Carew are practically interchangeable in my 2nd or 3rd vote slots.

Insert Name Here

11 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

VOTE CHANGE!

I want Reggie Smith to stay on the ballot (6.2 WAR/162 over 7 years is exceptional) so I’ll be throwing him one of my votes. Since Palmer’s fate in this round isn’t likely to change I’ll drop my vote for him to vote for Smith.

Final vote: Kenny Lofton, Bobby Grich, Reggie Smith.

oneblankspace

11 years ago

Checking my last year’s ballot, two of the three guys I voted for are off — one up, one down.

Biggio stays on. Doubles and all that.

Carew started 15 All-star games: 8 at 2b, 7 at 1b. Overall, he played over 1100 games at each position.

Lopes (born in Rhode Island) had over 10% of his 500+ stolen bases after his 40th birthday.

Biggio, Carew, Lopes get my votes this round.

bells

11 years ago

Huh, interesting that Palmer’s getting a ton of support and Sutton is getting none, given that the peripheral glance shows that they have virtually the same WAR. I was born in 1980 so I’m trying to take my time to piece together a statistical picture of players we’re voting on now, but would someone care to make the case of Palmer over Sutton? Seems like 7-8 people have already made that choice with their votes, there has to be a reason. I see Sutton’s ERA+ is somewhat lower and his career was longer so it could be the ‘compiler’ image… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to bells

Bells – Palmer and Sutton may have similar WARs but it took Sutton a lot more innings pitched to reach that WAR. I’m certain that’s the reason he’s getting no love.

bells

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

Yes, it was fairly obvious that it was a ‘peak vs. longevity’ thing. I just like to be willfully ignorant with open-ended questions… what can I say, I really appreciate the insight of posters here, as they’ve taught me most of what I know about baseball. Either way, I find it interesting that it’s so split. I personally have a bit of a thing for players who last a long time in the majors. I guess the real question is how much you evaluate a player’s individual worth by how much they helped their team win in a particular time… Read more »

Phil

11 years ago

Reply to bells

It’s a great comparison, because they start at almost exactly the same time, and their teams meet in the ’66 Series (Sutton didn’t pitch—not sure if he was eligible or not). Anyway, quick case for Palmer: 1) Better career ERA and ERA+ 2) Almost identical WAR in 1,300 fewer innings for Palmer 3) Huge WAR advantage for Palmer in their peak years: 56.7 for his strongest ten-year block (1969-78), 39.8 for Sutton’s (1971-80) Less analytically, 1) Much better Cy Young and MVP voting for Palmer 2) More All-Star games for Palmer 3) I doubt that any GM would have traded… Read more »

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to bells

Another way to look at Palmer vs. Sutton. Palmer’s best WAR season was better than Sutton’s best WAR season. Same for their respective second-best seasons. And their third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth-best seasons. Palmer wins the comparison in every one of those cases. After that it turns around, and Sutton’s 11th-best WAR season was better than Palmer’s 11th-best WAR season, and the 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th and 19th — each of those comparisons favors Sutton. After that you can’t compare head to head the same way because Palmer pitched in 19 seasons while… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

All that changes if you look at fWAR. I don’t really think it’s relevant, but oh my:

Palmer – 52.0 fWAR
Sutton – 85.8 fWAR

Palmer’s ERA vastly outperformed his FIP by quite a bit – almost two-thirds of a run per 9 over his entire career, while’s Sutton’s ERA-FIP is near zero.

Fangraphs’ RA9-WAR (which is a much better choice for evaluating long careers) gives Palmer a 2 WAR edge (92 to 90).

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

And as we are using WAR as a baseline, shouldn’t we be especially valuing consistent payers who never put you in a position of using the “R” in WAR ? Don Sutton 200+ IP for 21 consecutive years (+1981) ______________ Through age 37 (his NL career): Averaged 240 IP with RA9 3.38 RA9opp 4.06 That is a #2 or #3 starter unrelenting for two decades. Unrelenting. Meaning that Joe Slobotnick from AAAA purgatory is not spot starting, ever, for Don Sutton. Counting stats are a double positive. The positive of them happening. And the lack of negative of them not… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Well said.

WAA has a huge blind spot, and it’s for players who are good/very good for a very long time.

Sutton (and Nolan Ryan, for that matter) are right in that blindspot.

Phil

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

I’ll tell you one amazing thing I noticed looking over Sutton’s stats (nothing to do with him): the utter and complete collapse of the Brewers’ offense in 1984. In the space of two seasons, they went from Harvey’s Wallbangers of 1982 to a team where Robin Yount’s .441 SA led the regulars, and no other regular was *over .400*. They finished last in the league in runs.

BryanM

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo — wonderful point – given the choice between 2 above average players , one with the higher peak , another with a steady-eddie-murray career, I’ll take the latter every time, not only for the reason you cite, but because the steady players give better value per contract $, not depriving their teams of money to pay for other good players.

Phil

11 years ago

Reply to BryanM

For me, it would depend upon the length of the peak. Palmer’s was a decade, where I think he was, by general consensus, considered one of the three best starting pitchers in the game (along with Carlton, either second or third after Seaver). I’d take Palmer’s dominant decade ahead of what Sutton did with the Brewers and the Angels. In other cases, I’d agree with you.

oneblankspace

11 years ago

Reply to bells

Sutton never did underwear commercials.

11 years ago

Edgar Martinez, Rod Carew, Jim Palmer

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

__________________

I’m going to paste some stats I posted earlier in the thread and pose a question:
_______

RA9 through age 38 (when Palmer finished)

3.18 Palmer
3.43 Sutton
3.59 Ryan
___________

RA9DEF

0.33 Palmer
0.09 Sutton
-0.06 Ryan

______________

Can we arrive at a “neutralized” RA9 by deducting the RA9DEF?
Or is that too speculative?

RA9 minus RA9DEF

3.51 Palmer
3.52 Sutton
3.53 Ryan

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Acknowledging, of course, that a Pitcher’s defense is a part of RA9DEF.

What is the best way to look at that?
Fielding % and range factor?
_____________

Fielding %
.962 Palmer
.968 Sutton
.895 Ryan

Aha! Bad Nolan, bad.
_____________________

RF9/lgRF9

1.98 / 1.89 Palmer
1.61 / 1.88 Sutton
1.28 / 1.89 Ryan

Now, this of course is not fair to Nolan.
His strikeouts significantly cut down on his fielding opportunities.

The fact that everyone was terrified of trying to bunt on him did the same.

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Something like this, Voomo?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/2/11/3973066/adding-defensive-adjustments-to-era-plus

The author later unveiled a cleaner version, called RA9-, but I for the life of me cannot find a link to that.

Anyway, I think it’s an upgrade to ERA+.

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Well, it seems like the author knows what he’s talking about.
Anything beyond manipulating counting statistics and I get both wary and confused. A disadvantage for someone who spends as much time as I do contemplating baseball stats.

[ [ lgRA / lgIP * 9 ] / [ (RA + xRA_def) / IP *9 ] ] *park factor = xRA9_plus

???

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

It’s basically just RA9+, adjusted for team defense.

[lgRA9/(RA9 + RA9def)]*100

as opposed to just RA9+ or ERA+:

(lgRA9/RA9)*100 or (lgERA/ERA)*100

The park factors are embedded in lgRA9 or lgERA to individualize each pitcher’s weighted league average ERA against which their own ERA will be judged.

Chris C

11 years ago

I want a HOF ballot so I can vote for 10 guys.

I’ll settle for:
2B Craig Biggio
DH Edgar Martinez
OF Eddie Murray

Chris C

11 years ago

Reply to Chris C

Whoops 1B Eddie Murray 🙂

Artie Z.

11 years ago

This is one of the most difficult votes in a while, but I’ll stay true to my two and add Carew.

Murray, Alomar, Carew

Given the next few birth years, whoever is on the ballot now and doesn’t win this vote will likely be waiting a while (Seaver and Carlton in 1944, Joe Morgan in 1943, Fergie Jenkins in 1942, Rose in 1941). And I’m not even listing guys like Nettles and Bando and Wynn.

Arsen

11 years ago

I always check the links to the Baseball Reference page for every new player. I don’t usually pay much attention to the Fan Elorater at the top of each player’s page. But it was hard not to notice that the player ranked below Reggie Smith (140) was Reggie Jackson. How can this be? Reggie Smith was a fantastic switch hitter but he doesn’t seem to beat Jackson’s peak or career. Is there a cult of Reggie Smith fans out there or just a lot of people who don’t like Jackson.

I’ll vote: Palmer, Carew, Alomar.

paget

11 years ago

Reply to Arsen

At some point in the last few months Fan EloRater lost its mind; can’t say why. All I know is that a couple of years ago it was at least reasonable enough that on the old interim website (http://highheatstats.blogspot.com/), it was used as a basis for determining the most overrated and underrated players in the history of the game. You could never make use of it as a metric now, though – it’s just too insane (especially once you get past the top 10). I mean a few months ago I looked at it and Dave Winfield was rated like… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to paget

Yeah, I remember when the anti-Barry Bonds vote was still only enough to push him down to #25 or so. He’s now #155.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to paget

@74/paget,

Yeah, the B-R Fan EloRater has lost whatever little utility it had a year or two ago:

– Al Kaline #13, A-Rod #96 (A-Rod just behind Dale Murphy and Ralph Kiner)

– George Sisler #23, Joe Morgan #70 (Morgan right behind Ken Boyer and Joe Torre)

– Tommy John #17, Steve Carlton #86 (Carlton right behind Jack Morris and Freddie Fitzsimmons)

paget

11 years ago

Reply to Arsen

Whoops, meant to provide the complete link to that piece:
http://highheatstats.blogspot.com/2012/01/50-most-overrated-batters-in-baseball.html

GrandyMan

11 years ago

Carew, Ryan, Whitaker

T-Bone

11 years ago

This birth year has a LOT of my childhood favorites. Growing up fairly close to L.A. I got to see Sutton, Messersmith, Lopes and Reggie Smith quite a bit. Cey over Garvey any day for me by the way. Monday, Johnstone, and Sizemore….lots of players I associate with the Dodgers. I’m enjoying remembrances of these and others on the list but I have to go with the Phillies new manager….

Sandberg
Carew
and a sentimental vote for Messersmith who was basically done at 31 but oh I enjoyed his pitching when we could still do it.

Mike HBC

11 years ago

Carew, Ryan, Palmer

Brent

11 years ago

Shout out to Hal McRae, great hitter and leader, but too many great candidates here to throw away a vote. I am going Carew, Whitaker and Alomar. Still pushing those 2nd basemen.

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

11 years ago

Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:

Carew 44.7
Grich 43.6
Whitaker 42.7
Martinez 41.3
Smoltz 40.1
Lofton 39.3
Ryan 39.1
Sandberg 38.8
Smith 38.2
Alomar 36.8
Biggio 36.3
Palmer 36.0
Murray 34.9
Sutton 28.0

I’ll swap one Angels second baseman for another (though it’s amazing how close those two guys are), but the best hitter and the best pitcher on the ballot remain.

Carew. Martinez. Smoltz.

Mike L

11 years ago

Carew, Palmer, and Sandberg. I think some of the purely pitching discussion about Palmer will be echoed when we get to Whitey Ford. BTW, I used to get Inside Sports, which once had a cover story “The New Sex Pitch” with Jim Palmer and the golfer Jan Stephenson dressed for a night out (or, whatever.) Don’t think Whitey ever got that kind of coverage.

mosc

11 years ago

Ryan, Palmer, Sutton

aweb

11 years ago

New and mostly new folks for me. Carew – I remember reading about his 1969 season, when he stole home 7 times. Not a great basestealer overall, but a great player with a huge peak. Seems weirdly miscast at 1B, but where else does a 2B go? Palmer – taking advantage of one of the greatest sustained defenses ever seems like an OK thing to do to me. Ryan – I love career value, and I loved Ryan as a kid, so I’m sticking with him. Sutton, despite being the exact opposite in many ways (fame, “stuff”, control, highlights, personality)… Read more »

David Horwich

11 years ago

Reply to aweb

With Palmer, I suppose the (unanswerable) question is whether he took advantage of his defense, or was simply on the right team at the right time for his style of pitching. If Derek Lowe had been his contemporary and teammate he might’ve looked like the 2nd coming of Christy Mathewson.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

Palmer pitched from 1965 to 1984. Over that period, the top four players (at any position) in b-ref’s Rfield in the major leagues were Mark Belanger, Brooks Robinson, Buddy Bell, and Paul Blair. All but Bell were Orioles. Plus, Bobby Grich was the everyday second baseman for the O’s from 1973-76, a period during which he was by far tops in the majors in Rfield for second basemen. At fangraphs, you can check team “Total Zone” fielding numbers over multiple year periods. The top 5 team Total Zone numbers for the period of Palmer’s career, 1965-1984: 1. Baltimore 1064 2.… Read more »

David Horwich

11 years ago

Reply to aweb

aweb @ 72 – “Carew…Seems weirdly miscast at 1B, but where else does a 2B go?” Well, there’s always the outfield. Presumably Carew had the speed for it, but maybe not much of an arm? Or was his move to 1B mainly dictated by the personnel available to the Twins at the time? (I don’t know the answers to these questions…so let’s try a little research.) The Twins in 1975 (Carew’s last year as a full-time second baseman) seem to have had something of a revolving door at 1B, with the position mainly split among 3 guys (John Briggs, Craig… Read more »

paget

11 years ago

Carew
Smoltz
Murray

Shout out to Doc Ellis. (I’m sure most of you have watched this, but in case there are some of you who are uninitiated: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vUhSYLRw14)

The Diamond King

11 years ago

Murray, Carew, Ryan

JEV

11 years ago

Palmer, Sutton, Biggio

Hartvig

11 years ago

I’ve had enough time to think but first a few thoughts: Don Sutton- I think Voomo Zanzibar’s #45 comment is spot on. Good to very good for 20 plus years adds up to a LOT of value. Plenty enough, in my opinion, to warrant his inclusion in the Hall of Fame. Not quite enough for the Circle of Greats however. Reggie Smith- The other “Reggie”. Much like another former Boston outfielder- Dwight Evans- did a lot of things right for a fairly long time. Also enough for me to believe that he belongs in the Hall of Fame but not… Read more »

Kirk

11 years ago

Palmer, Alomar & Carew

elkboy3

11 years ago

Carew, Martinez, Smoltz

CursedClevelander

11 years ago

For the moment: Lofton (I told you, I’m loyal!), Carew (IMHO, the best player on the ballot), and Smoltz (again, IMHO, the best pitcher on the ballot, edging out Ryan, Sutton and Palmer) I might change my ballot to keep Murray and/or Sandberg on the bubble if that becomes needed. Shoutouts to: Andy Messersmith, for helping to set in motion the gears that would eventually crush the reserve clause and usher in the FA era of baseball. Mike Lum, the Hawaiian Hank Aaron, for his prodigious 90 clouts, formerly the most of any Aloha State MLB’er before Shane Victorino. Ken… Read more »

Joseph

11 years ago

Smoltz; Carew; and Murray.

--bill

11 years ago

Carew, Grich, Palmer.

11 years ago

whitaker, carew, palmer

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

____________ Kenny Lofton We have not yet voted for a centerfielder. We voted for Reggie Jackson, based on what? A dinger once every five games and a couple of good days in October? I’ll take batting average, on base percentage, stolen bases, a low swing/miss %, and elite centerfield defense. Nolan Ryan 25 WAR from age 39-46, after Palmer had hung it up. Look, I can’t make a sound sabermetric argument, really. But his longevity – POWER longevity, is unique and inspiring. And as an executive, he’s taken the Dallas Senators to perennial contention, and he’s done it with strong… Read more »