Note: This is a follow-up to a recent post and discussion about which box-score counting stat best predicts the winner of a game. I’m sure the following research has been done more thoroughly by others, but I had the data and wanted to stretch my Excel skills, so here it is.
This might not surprise you, but: In this year’s games through June 4, team winning percentage improves steadily with each walk drawn in a game, even when you take out all intentional walks. (IBBs are more often issued by teams that are already trailing, so they would tend to distort these records. All further mention of “walks” means unintentional walks.)
2013 Team Records by No. of Unintentional Walks Drawn
(through June 4)
[table id=131 /]
Now, the same table for hits:
2013 Team Records by No. of Batters’ Hits
(through June 4)
[table id=130 /]
Both correlations are so strong that they show clearly even with these fairly small samples — 867 total games, distributed across various levels of walks or hits. There’s a couple of hiccups — oddly, both come in the 6-to-7 step — but the pattern is unmistakable.
Season Differentials
Expressing this in terms of a team’s net from batting and pitching, both a positive walks differential (more drawn than issued) and a positive hits differential are strongly correlated with success, and they’re somewhat correlated themselves — teams that draw more walks, also get more hits, and vice versa:
- Teams with a positive walks differential have a .552 winning percentage, regardless of their hits differential.
- Those 15 “plus-walks” teams average 4.49 runs per game and 4.02 runs allowed, +0.53 walks per game, and +0.18 hits per game. Those with a negative walks differential average 4.02 R/G and 4.49 RA/G.
- Teams with a positive hits differential have a .559 winning percentage, regardless of their walks differential.
- Those 16 “plus-hits” teams average 4.61 runs per game and 4.02 runs allowed, +0.66 hits per game, and +0.16 walks per game. Those with a negative hits differential average 3.84 R/G and 4.52 RA/G.
In walks differential, the top two teams are the A’s and Braves, a combined 71-47 through June 4. The bottom two are the Astros and Cubs, a combined 44-71.
In hits differential, the top two teams are the Tigers and Red Sox, 67-48. The bottom two are the Astros and Twins, 47-67.
Splitting the 30 teams into 3 groups of 10 each, for highest differentials, medium differentials, and lowest differentials, of walks and of hits:
Highest Differentials:
- Walks … .558 W%, 4.60 R/G, 3.99 RA/G, +0.75 BB/G, +0.33 H/G, +1.09 (H+BB)/G
- Hits …… .586 W%, 4.74 R/G, 4.03 RA/G, +0.90 H/G, +0.10 BB/G, +1.00 (H+BB)/G
Medium Differentials:
- Walks … .496 W%, 4.25 R/G, 4.35 RA/G, -.08 BB/G, -0.15 H/G, -0.23 (H+BB)/G
- Hits …… .503 W%, 4.18 R/G, 4.15 RA/G, +0.07 H/G, -0.02 BB/G, +0.05 (H+BB)/G
Lowest Differentials:
- Walks … .446 W%, 3.90 R/G, 4.42 RA/G, -0.68 BB/G, -0.19 H/G, -0.86 (H+BB)/G
- Hits …… .430 W%, 3.84 R/G, 4.58 RA/G, -0.97 H/G, -0.08 BB/G, -1.05 (H+BB)/G
Now let’s restack them, like with like:
Walks:
- Highest — .558 W%, 4.60 R/G, 3.99 RA/G, +0.75 BB/G, +0.33 H/G, +1.09 (H+BB)/G
- Medium — .496 W%, 4.25 R/G, 4.35 RA/G, -.08 BB/G, -0.15 H/G, -0.23 (H+BB)/G
- Lowest — .446 W%, 3.90 R/G, 4.42 RA/G, -0.68 BB/G, -0.19 H/G, -0.86 (H+BB)/G
Hits:
- Highest — .586 W%, 4.74 R/G, 4.03 RA/G, +0.90 H/G, +0.10 BB/G, +1.00 (H+BB)/G
- Medium — .503 W%, 4.18 R/G, 4.15 RA/G, +0.07 H/G, -0.02 BB/G, +0.05 (H+BB)/G
- Lowest — .430 W%, 3.84 R/G, 4.58 RA/G, -0.97 H/G, -0.08 BB/G, -1.05 (H+BB)/G
The correlation is slightly stronger for hits, because hits includes extra-base hits; no one should think that, on average, “a walk is as good as a hit.” But for batters, the pursuits of walks and of hits are far from mutually exclusive. And winning the walks battle appears to be an important factor in winning games.
