Contributing Without Connecting

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This past week, Jack Cust was released and later picked up by the Yankees on a minor-league contract. Cust, at 53.0%, is the active career leader in TTO% (three true outcomes – % of PAs resulting in BBs, Ks or HRs). Generally, those high on the TTO list (usually around 50% of PAs) need to be high up on each of the component lists, if not among the league leaders. If they are, they stand a decent chance of being positive contributors.

Strikeouts are customarily seen as unproductive outs and therefore something to be minimized. Of course, those with high strikeouts can mitigate their negative impact by providing power. I was interested, though, to find out if any players had made positive offensive contributions even when their power did not seem adequate to compensate for their strikeouts.

To find out, I looked for qualifying seasons where a player has 3 times as many strikeouts as extra-base hits. There have been 404 such seasons since 1961. Here’s how those seasons are distributed.

	OPS+	WAR
Maximum	148	6.7
Top Decile	113	3.2
Top Quartile	98	2.2
Median	84	1.0
Bottom Quartile	73	0.1
Bottom Decile	60	-0.7
Minimum	38	-2.9

Clearly, it’s not easy to contribute with this batting characteristic. Less than one quarter of these seasons achieved even 100 OPS+. However, the top of the list at 148 OPS+ and 6.7 WAR, while not off the charts, is clearly nothing to sneeze at. Those guys could play on my team. So, who are they?

Here are the guys with OPS+ of 125 and WAR of 2 or more. It’s a pretty short list.

Rk	Player	OPS+	WAR/pos	SO	XBH	Year	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Jack Clark	148	4.2	145	46	1989	SDP	142	594	455	76	110	26	94	132	.242	.410	.459	.869	*39
2	Jack Cust	146	3.0	164	45	2007	OAK	124	507	395	61	101	26	82	105	.256	.408	.504	.912	D97
3	Rick Monday	141	3.9	143	39	1968	OAK	148	563	482	56	132	8	49	72	.274	.371	.402	.773	*8
4	Reggie Jackson	138	4.9	171	48	1968	OAK	154	614	553	82	138	29	74	50	.250	.316	.452	.768	*98/7
5	B.J. Upton	136	4.7	154	50	2007	TBD	129	548	474	86	142	24	82	65	.300	.386	.508	.894	*84/D
6	Billy Grabarkewitz	134	6.5	149	45	1970	LAD	156	640	529	92	153	17	84	95	.289	.399	.454	.852	*564
7	Phil Bradley	132	3.3	134	43	1986	SEA	143	615	526	88	163	12	50	77	.310	.405	.445	.849	*7/8
8	Jack Clark	130	3.1	141	41	1988	NYY	150	616	496	81	120	27	93	113	.242	.381	.433	.815	*D93/7
9	Jack Cust	129	2.3	197	52	2008	OAK	148	598	481	77	111	33	77	111	.231	.375	.476	.851	*7D/9
10	Dwayne Murphy	129	4.6	91	28	1981	OAK	107	477	390	58	98	15	60	73	.251	.369	.408	.777	*8/D
11	Jose Canseco	128	2.1	128	41	1992	TOT	119	512	439	74	107	26	87	63	.244	.344	.456	.799	*9D
12	Ron LeFlore	128	4.8	111	35	1976	DET	135	603	544	93	172	4	39	51	.316	.376	.410	.786	*8/D
13	Jesse Barfield	127	4.6	150	48	1990	NYY	153	570	476	69	117	25	78	82	.246	.359	.456	.815	*9/8

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/13/2012.

Overall, quite a mixed bag of different kinds of players, and none of the free-swinging guys of recent years. There is some decent WAR too, with most of the seasons above 4. Also a bit remarkable that, with only 13 players from the last 51 years, 2 of those 13 (Jackson and Monday) would be from the same team.

The two Jacks (Clark and Cust) both appear here twice, each time with over 100 walks. Most of the guys here walk quite a bit, but a couple (Leflore, Jackson) have comparatively modest totals. Jackson, in fact, managed only a .316 OBP (although, the AL average that year was only .297).

A few guys had decent (but only decent) batting averages, but 8 of the 13 had averages of .256 or less. But, probably not too surprising given the number of strikeouts.

Most showed some power, but not massively, and some (LeFlore, Monday) hardly at all. The highest total of extra-base hits was only 52, hardly an imposing total (the lowest league-leading total in a full live-ball season was 61 by Enos Slaughter in 1942).

Mixed bag of speed on this list, too. Everything from molasses-like Cust to speedsters like Upton and LeFlore.

Looking at the top 10 in WAR, regardless of OPS+ give us mostly a different set of seasons.

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	OPS+	SO	XBH	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Bill North	6.7	110	89	20	1973	25	OAK	146	642	554	98	158	5	34	78	.285	.376	.348	.725	*8/D9
2	Billy Grabarkewitz	6.5	134	149	45	1970	24	LAD	156	640	529	92	153	17	84	95	.289	.399	.454	.852	*564
3	Brett Gardner	5.2	105	101	32	2010	26	NYY	150	569	477	97	132	5	47	79	.277	.383	.379	.762	*78/D
4	Drew Stubbs	5.2	105	168	47	2010	25	CIN	150	583	514	91	131	22	77	55	.255	.329	.444	.773	*8
5	Bill North	5.2	103	80	23	1975	27	OAK	140	624	524	74	143	1	43	81	.273	.373	.330	.703	*8/7D
6	Brett Butler	5.1	114	79	20	1991	34	LAD	161	730	615	112	182	2	38	108	.296	.401	.343	.744	*8
7	Michael Bourn	5.0	104	140	46	2011	28	TOT	158	722	656	94	193	2	50	53	.294	.349	.386	.734	*8
8	Michael Bourn	4.9	89	109	33	2010	27	HOU	141	605	535	84	142	2	38	59	.265	.341	.346	.686	*8
9	Reggie Jackson	4.9	138	171	48	1968	22	OAK	154	614	553	82	138	29	74	50	.250	.316	.452	.768	*98/7
10	Gary Pettis	4.8	88	132	32	1986	28	CAL	154	628	539	93	139	5	58	69	.258	.339	.343	.683	*8/D

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/1/2012.

The lower OPS+ guys here got good chunks of their WAR from their baserunning or their defense (or both).

So, what’s the secret to being a positive contributor with lots of strikeouts and not a lot of power?

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Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Really interesting stuff, Doug. I’m really intrigued by the median – 84 OPS+, 1.0 WAR. A sub-average player. Not surprising with numbers as high as would be needed here.

One question – you set the parameter at SO>=3*HR; what was your lower limit for PAs (or HR or SO)?

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Actually it was SO > 3 * XBH.

Doug

12 years ago

Dr. Doom,

Only limiting factor was qualifying for the batting title.

ATarwerdi96

12 years ago

Jack Cust was signed by the Yankees to a minor league deal a few days ago.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to ATarwerdi96

Thanks for the update. I’ve corrected the post.

Mike L

12 years ago

I think there’s always going to be a market for the player who does something well-like crush a right-handed pitcher, or steal a base, even if the rest of their “contribution” is sub-optimal. Part of this is because managers like to manage-they like to have the situational guy to plug in. Although he isn’t a precise match for this group, take a look at the last nine years of Rubin Sierra’s career. Only two years with an OPS+ at or above 100, only one year with more than 369 PAs. But he kept getting jobs

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Among the 318 players who were active in 2011 and had a career PA total of at least 1,000, the highest Three True Outcomes Percentage were:
1. Jack Cust 53.0%
2. Russell Branyan 50.5%
3. Mark Reynolds 50.1%
4. Adam Dunn 49.4%
5. Jim Thome 47.6%

Lowest TTO% among this group of 318:
1. Juan Pierre 11.6%
2. Livan Hernandez 13.4%
3. Placido Polanco 13.6%
4. Yuniesky Betancourt 14.25%
5. Jeff Keppinger 14.4%

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Among that same group of 318 guys, the highest career ratios of strikeouts per extra-base hit: 1. Joey Gathright 5.58 Ks per extra-base hit 2. Jeff Mathis 4.81 3. Reggie Willits 4.69 4. Matt Treanor 4.21 5. Drew Stubbs 4.18 6. Emilio Bonafacio 4.09 7. Jack Cust 4.03 Gathright is not really active, having just one major league PA since the end of 2009, and now in Mexico, I think. Willits also seems to be unsigned. Mathis and Treanor are backup catchers. Again, among the 318 players who played in the majors in 2011 and have at least 1,000 career… Read more »

DaveR

12 years ago

No one on that list scored more than a hundred runs, or drove in 100. I think that the TTO doesn’t add so much to the bottom line- runs. People think strikeouts don’t matter much (an out is an out), but I’ve regularly seen batters with little plate discipline leave that runner at third. Jack Clark’s 148 OPS+ is VERY impressive, but it barely equaled a run per game.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to DaveR

Dave, I agree generally, but it’s possible to be a success and a TTO type. The first chart shows it, and Reggie and Thome drive the point home. Thome has scored 100 runs eight times and driven in 100 nine, and is almost certainly going to the HOF. Dunn scored 100 twice, five times 100 RBI-his last year was so historically horrible it tends blu his real prior accomplishments.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to DaveR

DaveR, consider the context in which Clark scored 76 runs with a 148 OPS+. The ’89 Padres scored under 4 runs per game. Tony Gwynn (just 30 Ks) had 85 more PAs than Clark, but scored just 6 more runs. Roberto Alomar had 108 more PAs than Clark, and also scored just 6 more runs. Clark’s rate of 90 Runs per 700 PAs was #2 on the team, after leadoff man Bip Roberts (who scored some runs as a pinch-runner). Clark batted #4 that year. The median runs from the #4 spot in the 1989 NL was 86; San Diego… Read more »

DaveR

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I see your point, John. I think I’m looking at some of these hitters as having low totals and not acknowledging his teammates as being unproductive (getting on base for him to drive in, or getting hits to score him). I also think I’ve gotten used to the many runs that were scored the last few years, as opposed to that 1989 season. I suppose a run per game then was much more valuable.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to DaveR

As a rough test of whether OPS+ fails to capture the value of low-K batters, I looked at hitters in the last 20 years with at least 3,000 PAs and an OPS+ of 110-120. There are 79 such hitters. Then I looked at the 10 lowest K rates and the 10 highest K rates, and figured their average Runs per 700 PAs, RBI per 700 PAs, and OPS+. The results: – The low-K group averaged 67 Ks, 97 Runs and 79 RBI per 700 PAs, with a 116.1 OPS+. That’s 176 R+RBI. – The high-K group averaged 170 Ks, 91… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John, do you think R+RBI-HR would paint a more accurate picture? If you don’t subtract the HR, you’re double crediting the player with a run and an RBI when only one run has scored.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Sorry, bstar, but that’s simply wrong, in my view. The calculation of Runs+RBI counts 2 units of production for EVERY run that scores in a conventional way. A single that drives a guy in from 2nd is a Run for the baserunner and an RBI for the hitter. I cannot conceive of any reason to treat HRs differently.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John – What Bstar is advocating is Runs Produced and while it has fallen out of favor within the SABR community it does have a defender in none other than Tango Tiger.

http://www.tangotiger.net/runsproduced.html

http://www.tangotiger.net/rp.htm

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Ed @38 – Thanks for the Tango links. I’ve been fiercely opposed to the concept of Runs Produced from the moment I first read of it, for the reason that I’ve already stated: In the abstract, it’s absurdly, comically illogical. I had not previously seen an approach like Tango’s — i.e., not trying to justify it conceptually, but starting from players established by other means as being similar, then arguing backwards to show that subtracting the HRs gives comparative results more in line with the established similarities. It’s interesting — I’m not yet convinced, but at least it got me… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I had a similar reaction initially also, John. I’ve also softened a little on my stance on disagreeing with subtracting HR. It now makes a little more sense, but I’m still somewhere in the middle on it.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Part of my hostility to “Runs Produced” is that I’ve heard so many people use it to support so many indefensible claims. For example, for the years 2003-2011, Michael Young ranks #7 overall in “RP” (sorry but it will be a while before I can use the term without quotes), and Johnny Damon #10. There are people who think that proves they are elite offensive players. But: – In Rbat, Young ranks 57th, Damon 75th. – In OBP, they’re #62 and #59, respectively (3000+ PA). – In OPS+, they’re #79 and #86. – In WPA, they’re #48 and #37. I… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I thought as bstar did, i. e. to subtract HRs. After thinking over what you said I agree that they should not be subtracted.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

It really was more of a gauge to see how you felt about that stat, John, than an advocation of it. I will henceforth refer to it as that “comical, absurdly illogical stat”. 🙂

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

But John….wouldn’t Damon and Young rank highly even if you didn’t subtract out homeruns? (i.e., just added runs and rbis together).

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

bstar @44 — Well, if you wanted to gauge my feeling about Runs Produced, it was a wild success! 🙂 I did not intend to jump on you, but you sounded like an advocate when you said “If you don’t subtract the HR, you’re double crediting the player with a run and an RBI when only one run has scored.” And even if I do come to see some value in RP, I will remain convinced that RP in many instances yields absurd conclusions. RP sees no difference between these two guys: – Player A comes up with a man… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yep, that was my fault. You’ve certainly convinced me. It always kinda smacked of a “let’s subtract the home runs so we can make our equation work out” sort of thing.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John…why would Player A get two runs produced? Based on your description, he only get one…for his RBI.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Ed @48 — I guess I didn’t make clear that Players A and B were batting consecutively in the same lineup. So Player A scored on B’s HR. Thus, an RBI and a Run for A, hence 2 Runs Produced.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Gotcha. I thought you were talking “in general”. Course, as we all know, RBIs and runs scored aren’t great ways to evaluate players period, regardless of whether or not you subtract out home runs.

Doug

12 years ago

Thanks for the list, Birtelcom.

Interesting to see Livan on the “non-TTO” list.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Livan has low K totals for a pitcher, and almost never walks (9 BBs in his career). The guy puts the ball in play. Fernando Valenzuela, the only other Latino pitcher with over 800 career PAs since the DH rule was adopted in 1973, was the same way (Fernando’s TTO% was 15.6%). Compare Glavine, with a 26.2% TTO%, which is close to league average for a regular hitter (the TTO% for all PAs in the majors last season was 29.2%).

bstar

12 years ago

Doug, can you clarify this for me? You say, “Less than one quarter of these seasons were even above replacement level.” Isn’t zero, or am I just corn-fused again? I’m betting on the latter.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Sorry, that should say: Isn’t 0, or am I just confused again?

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I will have to contact Andy. It’s omitting my 2nd line of text.

Andy

12 years ago

I haven’t the slightest idea of what’s going on with your comments, bstar.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Thanks, anyway.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

My posts seemed to cut off after I typed “zero” or “0”.????

Doug

12 years ago

Good catch, bstar.

I was looking at the top quartile having a 98 OPS+. But I believe 100 OPS+ is league average rather than replacement level. So that should be less than a quarter at league average.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

I was looking at WAR>0 being non-replacement level.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

FWIW … The table that starts with Jack Clark appears to have a requirement of three times as many strikeouts as extra-base hits. None of them has three times more, which would be equivalent to four times as many.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Thanks John, I’ve corrected the post.

Steven

12 years ago

Billy Grabarkewitz’ name has been showing up a lot over the past couple of months on this site. From those of us stuck in the sixties and early seventies, Thank You.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Steven

Indeed.

If you’re only going to have one season as a regular, it’s nice to make it both a good one and a very unusual one.

Doug

12 years ago

Per JA’s point, for greater clarity the query was SO greater than 3*XBH.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Over the last two seasons, Cust’s numbers averaged over 162 games, are
15 homers
194 SO

The Yankees must be pretty confident in their coaching skills.

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Unrelated to everything in this post:

There are five ex-players with 40+ WAR who were born April 2nd. That may be the most of any day.

Tommy Bond: 41.3
Don Sutton: 65.6
Reggie Smith: 63.4
Billy Pierce: 51.8
Luke Appling: 69.3

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

According to B-R there are 421 players who have accumulated 40 or more career WAR or an average of 1.15 for every day of the year. I’m sure there’s some way to calculate based on random distribution what the likely highest number would be but I’ll be buggered if I know how to do it.

On the other hand, I have 142 Facebook friends and it turns out that no fewer than 3 of them are born today, so maybe it’s just something about the day after April fools day.

Tmckelv

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Perhaps it has something to do with people heartily “celebrating” America’s Independence 9 months prior. 🙂

Michael E Sullivan

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Well, as luck would have it, I did an order flow monte carlo simulation years ago for my printing company to decide how to price orders which would come in randomly. I can use the results to make a stab at it. For a 1 order per period flow, the highest number of orders I had come in in the same period was 5 in 100,000 simulations, and it occured .4% of the time, or 400 times (this was not a scientific study, just a good enough approximation). For a 2 order per period flow, I got 7 as the… Read more »

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Check out June 15th….Billy Williams, Wade Boggs, Lance Parrish, Brett Butler.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

For 1893-present, I find 3 birthdays with 5 players at 40+ WAR:
(WAR values shown for their primary role only; i.e., pitchers’ batting WAR is not reflected here.)

April 2:
Don Sutton, 70.8
Luke Appling, 69.3
Reggie Smith, 63.4
Billy Pierce, 53.5
Hughie Jennings, 44.6

May 14:
Roy Halladay, 61.8
Ed Walsh, 54.8
Tony Perez, 50.5
Dennis Martinez, 46.9
Earle Combs, 44.7

November 26:
Chuck Finley, 55.0
Bob Johnson, 53.2
Bob Elliott, 52.3
Lefty Gomez, 43.0
Fred Tenney, 42.8

(Aside to Dr. Doom — Any idea why your search didn’t grab Hughie Jennings?)

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I didn’t actually do a formal search. I just check the birthdays sometimes, to see if there’s anything interesting on a given day. It’s a simple case of just overlooking.