Circle of Greats 1954 Balloting

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This post is for voting and discussion in the seventeenth round of balloting for the Circle of Greats. This round adds those players born in 1954. Rules and lists are after the jump.

As usual, the group of players newly eligible this round joins the holdovers from previous rounds of balloting to comprise the full list of players eligible to receive your votes this round. And, as usual, the new group of 1954-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 career Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).

As always, each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM EDT on Sunday, May 5, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM EDT Friday, May 3.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: 1954 COG Vote Tally . I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the newly eligible born-in-1954 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The 10 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and in alphabetical order when the future eligibility number is a tie. The new group of 1954 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and in alphabetical among players for whom the number of seasons played is a tie.

Holdovers:
Tony Gwynn (eligibility guaranteed for 10 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Lou Whitaker (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Paul Molitor (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Alan Trammell (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Tim Raines (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1954, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Andre Dawson
Gary Carter
Ozzie Smith
Rick Cerone
Jamie Quirk
Willie Randolph
Denny Walling
Claudell Washington
Rick Manning
Miguel Dilone
Johnnie LeMaster
Keith Moreland
Gary Roenicke
Steve Kemp
Ken Landreaux
Lenn Sakata
Harry Spilman
Jason Thompson
Julio Cruz
Ken Phelps
Jerry Turner
Ellis Valentine

Pitchers (born in 1954, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Dennis Eckersley
Dennis Martinez
Rick Honeycutt
Juan Berenguer
Bob Knepper
Dan Schatzeder
Don Aase
Willie Hernandez
Scott McGregor
Larry McWilliams
Paul Mirabella
Donnie Moore
Bob Stanley
John Tudor
Terry Leach
Randy Lerch
Bob Shirley
George Frazier
Roy Lee Jackson
Sammy Stewart

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Mike

11 years ago

Gwynn Smoltz Biggio I notice Jamie Quirk & Harry Spilman on the ballot. Quirk was a more highly regarded prospect through the minors than George Brett (seriously), but only hung around in the majors because he learned to catch (and because of George Brett……dang rumors) Spilman came up as a highly regarded prospect in the Reds organization (Street & Smith made it aound like he & Ray Knight were neck and neck) a corner IF & hung on as a good PH AND he learned to catch well enough to be a 3rd catcher 2 guys that shouldn’t get a… Read more »

Hartvig

11 years ago

Trammell, Carter, Sandberg I pains me not to vote for Sweet Lou but by my reckoning Sandberg is his equal and both are a hair ahead of Alomar & Biggio. I’m also torn about not voting for Randolph who should be the poster child for the type of player that advanced statistical analysis uncovers. I’m not 100% sold on the idea of his belonging in the Circle of Greats but he’s a no-doubt-about-it Hall of Famer in my mind. Ozzie belongs in the Circle of Greats but as far as I’m concerned he’s the second best shortstop on this ballot.… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Well, we have a new pitcher on the ballot worth considering, and he’s a great comparison to Smoltz. Taking the full career into account, Smoltz betters Eckersley. But the memory of Eck’s hair and moustache dancing in the wind, closing the door with lanky precision stirs up memories of rare and utter ‘greatness’, and I’m voting for him, at least for this round. And we’ve added a second baseman to the collection. Alomar – Biggio – Sandberg – Whitaker – and Willie Randolph. I grew up watching Willie, and was consistently struck by his intangible value – the things that… Read more »

Mike HBC

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I’m surprised nobody except you and me has jumped on the Eck train so far, Voomo. And the more I look at his numbers, the more I question whether or not I should still be riding.

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Reply to Mike HBC

Yes, I’ve been thinking the same thing.
Without employing a rigid statistical method for casting votes, this process is difficult.
I want to simultaneously vote as a emotional fan, as a math geek, and as a well rounded adult who really just wants to engage in interesting conversations.

Really, though, my core method is to play GM/Owner and vote for the guys I would want if I were building a team. I’m not sure Eck is my guy, either.

Mike HBC

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Agreed on all fronts.

bstar

11 years ago

Gary Carter is second in career WAR and WAA for catchers. I’m not sure if he’s the second best catcher ever, but he belongs in these hallowed halls for sure.

I’m happy that Ozzie Smith got enough value from his baserunning and defense to make it a somewhat easy call to have the best defensive shortstop I’ve ever seen get my vote.

Tough call on the third vote. I think I’ve voted for four or five of these guys at some point. I’ll throw another vote to Craig Biggio since he’s my second-baseman of choice.

Ozzie, Carter, Biggio

koma

11 years ago

Lou Whitaker, Gary Carter, Ozzie Smith

Dr. Doom

11 years ago

Carter, Trammell, Sandberg

In my own statistical system, I have Ozzie Smith as just a hair behind these other two (Trammell and Sandberg). But I have Gary Carter as solidly the number one player on the ballot, even without making an adjustment for being a catcher. So I think I’m going with this ballot.

Also, birtelcom, it’s been a while since a redemption round. Have we given up on those, or are you waiting a little while for the next one?

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

The last redemption round was run parallel to the 1959 ballot. I’ve been planning to run one every ten rounds or so; which means the next one will be parallel to 1949 or so.

bells

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

So it doesn’t take into account the double-year rounds; I guess it’s actually every 13 rounds or so… I’m happy either way, I’m sure if it ran simultaneous to the first 1952 round or the first 1949 round it would be fine.

Mike HBC

11 years ago

Smith, Eck, Carter

RonG

11 years ago

Smith, Carter, Trammell

Dr. Remulak

11 years ago

Gwynn, Smoltz, Biggio

ATarwerdi96

11 years ago

Paul Molitor, Tony Gwynn, Lou Whitaker

Chris C

11 years ago

Carter
Biggio
Raines

Apologies to Ozzie.

Shout out to the Red Sox from my early impressionable years – Eck, Tudor, Stanley, Sammy Stewart.

GrandyMan

11 years ago

Wow, what a year! 2 no-brainer HOFers, 2 more that are in and probably both fall on the right side of the borderline, and the criminally underrated Willie Randolph. There are now 15(!) players with an Actual Value score of at least 85: Smith 103.7 Whitaker 103.1 Molitor 100.1 Smoltz 99.0 Trammell 98.8 Carter 98.3 Sandberg 95.8 Gwynn 95.4 Raines 94.4 Randolph 92.9 Alomar 91.0 Murray 88.0 Eckersley 87.5 Biggio 86.9 Dawson 86.8 1) Carter. He has a high dWAR total, but his reputation backs it up. I can’t possibly pass on a guy who had nearly 70 WAR and… Read more »

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to GrandyMan

“I’m too young to remember either of them and have no personal prejudices for or against either of them, so I’ll go straight-up with the numbers.”

Ozzy Smith didn’t retire until 1996! Man, I’m getting old

GrandyMan

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

I didn’t start really watching baseball until the end of the following year. I remember being home sick from school, doing make-up work and watching the Yankees lose to the Indians in the ALCS. I felt pretty bitter, for I knew little of the Yankees’ Series win in ’96 and had no idea of what was to come in ’98. I think the earliest-born player I actually saw play was Paul Molitor, when he was in his last year with the Twins. I knew who he was from the cards my dad had given me, and I remember being in… Read more »

GrandyMan

11 years ago

Reply to GrandyMan

If anyone has been interested in my methodology: I am changing the Actual Value formula from WAR + 50(WAA/WAR) to WAR + .5(WAA) There are two reasons for this: 1) The intent of my methodology is to bring peak value into the equation, but expressing peak value as a function of total value seems to overly penalize guys like Eddie Murray. The problem may be that WAR is effectively being double-counted. 2) While goofing around with this equation, I got the following result: Tom Veryzer 183.0 Will Tom Veryzer ever be seriously considered for the COG? Probably not. But, I… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to GrandyMan

That’s always been my problem with WAA.

If you use a (WAR + WAA) formula, for those who play a full season that’s double-counting all WAR greater than 2. Why are the first two points of WAR only single-counted? What is the mathematical justification for saying WAR greater than 2 is worth 100% more than WAR less than 2?

I’m hoping someone can justify this logically.

GrandyMan

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

My reasoning for using WAA as a part of my methodology is that I am trying to encapsulate the “greatness” of each player being considered for the Circle of Greats. I am looking for players who not only achieved many milestones, which generally correlates with WAR, but also provided as much value to their teams in as little time as possible. To provide maximum value in minimal time, you have to dominate your competition; this is where WAA comes in. To provide maximum value in minimal time, time and time again, is to truly be great; this will be reflected… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to GrandyMan

I don’t think we’re disagreeing, Grandyman. Your realization that giving too much weight to WAA may be under-representing guys like Eddie Murray is exactly what I’m talking about.

Basically, I’m saying your equation of:

WAR + .5*WAA

is a step in the right direction.

It’s basically this:

0-2 wins: multiply by 1
2+ wins: multiply by 1.5

That seems less outlandish than doubling all wins greater than 2.

David Horwich

11 years ago

Alomar, Carter, Smith

Nick Pain

11 years ago

Gary Carter, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Mr. birtelcom, I’m having trouble accessing the spreadsheet.

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

Oops, sorry. Should be OK now.

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

All set now. Thanks.

Luis Gomez

11 years ago

I hate to sound like a broken record but here we go: Gwynn, Alomar, Whitaker.

Joel

11 years ago

Carter
Sandberg
Gwynn

Insert Name Here

11 years ago

I’m making a change to my definition of “peak” to loosen it a little so that Molitor’s greatness is recognized. My old definition of “peak”: A stretch of seasons in which the first and last season have at least 4 WAR, containing no consecutive seasons of less than 4 WAR where one season of the sub-4 WAR stretch has less than 3 WAR. My new definition of “peak”: A stretch of seasons in which the first and last season have at least 4 WAR, containing no consecutive seasons of less than 3.5 WAR where one season of the sub-3.5 WAR… Read more »

latefortheparty

11 years ago

Gary Carter
Ozzie Smith
Paul Molitor

Insert Name Here

11 years ago

Okay, having explained my method change in my previous comment, I now present my initial vote for 3 candidates: 1. Gary Carter (7.4 WAR/162 during 9-yr peak of 1977-85) 2. Ozzie Smith (5.8 WAR/162 during 13-yr peak of 1980-92) 3. Alan Trammell (6.4 WAR/162 during 11-yr peak of 1980-90) Once again, Trammell is overshadowed by a worthier newcomer (or, in this case, two newcomers). Here are the other HOF-caliber candidates, ranked: 4. Ryne Sandberg (6.2 WAR/162 during 9-yr peak of 1984-92) — If I make a vote change, it would probably be to keep Sandberg on the ballot if needed,… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to Insert Name Here

Ozzie Smith
Lou Whitaker
Alan Trammell

Gary Bateman

11 years ago

Molitor, Gwynn, Carter

J.R.

11 years ago

Gwynn, Murray, and Raines!

JamesS

11 years ago

Gary Carter, Ozzie Smith, Ryne Sandberg.
Strength up the middle!

opal611

11 years ago

For the 1954 election, I’m voting for:
-Paul Molitor
-Tony Gwynn
-Ryne Sandberg

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Biggio (Hopefully only temporarily off ballot)
-Alomar (Hopefully only temporarily off ballot)
-Smoltz
-Trammell
-Raines
-Whitaker
-Murray
-Smith
-Carter
-Randolph

11 years ago

Carter (didn’t Reggie say he wasn’t a Hall a Famer?), Smith, Smoltz (things being near equal, I’m going with the only holdover pitcher left)

Brent

11 years ago

The Wizard, Whitaker and Trammell

Jeff Harris

11 years ago

Smoltz, Whitaker, Trammell

brp

11 years ago

Gary Carter (deserves to win) Ryne Sandberg (to stay on the ballot) Craig Biggio – still my choice for 2B, I know he doesn’t measure up in some ways to the other 2B, but I’ll take a guy who played 3 defensive positions up the middle during his career, hit leadoff, took HBPs, hit for average and power, and was a true pro. Head nods to The Hawk, El Presidente, Eck, Randolph in this round; great players but I won’t put any of them in the CoG. Ozzie should get through to the next round without my help, and the… Read more »

The Diamond King

11 years ago

Murray, Carter, Smith

mosc

11 years ago

I believe DWAR criminally undervalues catchers. I also value pitch calling and handling of a rotation. In other words, bats aside, I don’t think even the wizard can match the defensive value of Gary Carter. I would also note that catchers tend to have the short careers filled with minor injuries preventing them from putting up great offensive numbers routinely. So I don’t think this is that close, Gary Carter is an inner circle hall of famer to me. To say he’s not means you’re going to have very few catchers on your list indeed. All that said, Ozzy was… Read more »

Abbott

11 years ago

Carter, Biggio, Raines

--bill

11 years ago

Gary Carter, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor

Nadig

11 years ago

Carter, Smith, Molitor.

Doug

11 years ago

Loaded ballot.

Dawson, Carter, Eck

brp

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

Only vote for Andre Dawson so far. Just curious if there’s any particular reason you pulled the trigger on him since a lot of people think he shouldn’t be in the regular HOF (not me, though).

Mike HBC

11 years ago

Reply to brp

I’m often amazed and confused by defensive measurements- I have a generally strong understanding of offensive sabermetric stats (strong compared to the average baseball fan, not compared to, say, the average HHS reader), but I fail to grasp how dWAR, UZR, etc. can possibly be calculated. Related to this: Hawk won 8 Gold Gloves*, and his HoF bio begins, “Andre Dawson, known as the ‘Hawk’ for his outstanding defense in center field and right field…” Yet his career dWAR was just 0.9, and his career Rfield was 70. Does this mean that he’s overrated by opinions based purely on watching… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to Mike HBC

It helps to separate Dawson’s fielding career into two parts. During Dawson’s age 21-28 years, where he almost exclusively played centerfield, he accumulated 75 Rfield and 0 Rpos (8.3 dWAR). However, for the rest of his career he played rightfield, a less demanding defensive position. His Rfield for this later period is a not awful -4, but his Rpos is -65 (-7.5 dWAR). So, according to WAR, what his HoF bio says is not incorrect. He was an outstanding centerfielder and, up to his age 40 season, a plus right fielder. It’s just that WAR rates CF and RF very… Read more »

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Mike HBC

Here are the top 5 Rfield totals in the NL over the six seasons from 1980 through 1985, when Dawson was winning six NL Gold Gloves in a row: 1. Ozzie Smith 92 2. Gary Carter 83 3. Keith Hernandez 68 4. Andre Dawson 67 5. Tim Wallach 44 Among all NL outfielders over this period, Dawson dominates Rfield: 1. Andre Dawson 67 2. Jose Cruz 37 3. Eddie Milner 35 3. Kevin McReynolds 31 T4. Tony Gwynn 30 If you break these seasons down further, you find that Dawson is extremely dominating in Rfield in ’81 and ’82 (as… Read more »

Mike HBC

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Excellent analysis, folks. Thanks for that.

Jeff Hill

11 years ago

Carter, Gwynn, Smoltz

11 years ago

Gary Carter, Dennis Eckersley, Lou Whitaker

11 years ago

Reply to wx

Ah… Can’t do it. Felt bad about not having a pitcher. But I can’t keep Eckersley. Take him off, put in Tony Gwynn

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Murray, Molitor, Gwynn

Arsen

11 years ago

This is an impossible vote. There are so many great players on this ballot. I’ve enjoyed this greatly as an intellectual exercise, but when I think of players through history I think 120 (that’s the number we are going for?) isn’t enough to honor the deserving players. The sports writers have been overly stingy with their votes for the Hall of Fame, witness the last election and the fact that no one can ever get in unanimously. The fact that we started voting with the new players also complicates matters. By the time all the guys born before 1968 are… Read more »

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

11 years ago

Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:

Trammell 45.1
Carter 44.1
Smith 44.0
Whitaker 43.1
Molitor 40.7
Smoltz 40.2
Sandberg 39.1
Alomar 37.3
Raines 37.2
Gwynn 36.8
Biggio 36.7
Randolph 36.6
Dawson 35.4
Murray 34.9
Eckersley 34.3

Doesn’t feel right not voting for the guy at the top of the list, but we’ve got probably the best defensive player ever, one of the five greatest catchers ever, and a hybrid starter-reliever in whose candidacy I’m invested now. Eckersley’s enticing too.

Carter. Smith. Smoltz

Mike L

11 years ago

My view of Carter is (somewhat unfairly) colored by his time in New York, where for the last three years of his contract he was viewed by a lot of people as in decline but still needing the spotlight. But I don’t think there’s any way he doesn’t make a top three. Carter, Ozzie, Molitor

aweb

11 years ago

Carter, Trammell, Molitor

I’m sticking with my backlog choices (Trammell, Molitor), and Carter is a legit top-5 Catcher.

11 years ago

Pitchers have picked up a total of 10 votes this round. Looks like it’s all position players until ’51, unless there’s a bigger push for Sutter than I think there’s going to be.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Totally Strategic Voting this time – two new guys, plus one guy on his last year of elegibility:

– Andre Dawson
– Willie Randolph
– Ryne Sandberg

I’ve realized that the most difficult thing about deciding who is worthy of the COG, is that being a worthy HOFer is often not enough; a player should be comfortably in the upper-half of HOF players.

And since we have elected a number of players not yet elected by the _ actual _ HOF, but still on their ballot (6 of 16), that “crowds” the field even further amongst actual HOF players.

Chad

11 years ago

With regrets to Smoltz and Gwynn, I will vote for the best catcher on the ballot, the best shortstop, and the best 2nd baseman:

Gary Carter
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker

Hub Kid

11 years ago

Gary Carter, Ozzie Smith, Roberto Alomar

Brendan Bingham

11 years ago

Sandberg, Eckersley, Raines

Insert Name Here

11 years ago

VOTE CHANGE! My initial vote was for Gary Carter, Ozzie Smith, and Alan Trammell. At this point, I’m calling the round for Carter. I’m also certain that Ozzie Smith will earn 2 rounds of eligibility here in his first round. Trammell is already safe 4 more rounds. This means that all 3 of my initial votes are dispensable. Others who are on the bubble that I want to see through are Ryne Sandberg and newcomers Andre Dawson, Dennis Eckersley, Willie Randolph, and Dennis Martínez. I’m expecting Sandberg to get through without my help, while Eckersley and Randolph are hovering around… Read more »

Darien

11 years ago

Gwynn
Trammell
Raines

bells

11 years ago

The best statistical choice is Carter, he’s a fantastic catcher. For the other votes, I think I’m going to ignore the ‘choose only the best’ mentality for a round and show my childhood fanboyism for the Expos of the 80s. We’re getting out of my age range for players who I’ve seen play, so this might be one of the last connections to my strong childhood love of those Expos as a Canadian boy in the 80s.

Carter
Dawson
Raines

Mike G.

11 years ago

Carter, Raines, Sandberg