Untouchable (at least, so far)

Paul MaholmLeft-hander Paul Maholm is one of the reasons Atlanta has but a single loss this season, and is currently riding a 10-game win streak. In 3 starts, Maholm has allowed nary a run, and hardly a baserunner (0.787 WHIP).

So, which other starting pitchers are off to hot starts in 2013? Quite a few, actually. In fact, if you’re a starting pitcher with at least 12 IP so far, your ERA needs to be under 2.00 to crack the top 25.

After the jump, more on pitchers who are strong out of the gate – this year and in the recent past.

So, here are those top 25 ERAs through games of April 16th, for starters with a minimum of 12 IP.

Rk Player ERA IP Age Tm G GS CG SHO W L W-L% BB SO ERA+ HR BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Paul Maholm 0.00 20.1 31 ATL 3 3 0 0 3 0 1.000 5 20 0 .153 .228 .167 .395
2 Jake Westbrook 0.00 15.2 35 STL 2 2 1 1 1 1 .500 10 4 0 .208 .344 .226 .570
3 Justin Masterson 0.41 22.0 28 CLE 3 3 1 1 3 0 1.000 8 20 971 0 .141 .238 .183 .421
4 Clay Buchholz 0.41 22.0 28 BOS 3 3 0 0 3 0 1.000 10 23 1070 1 .149 .250 .203 .453
5 Carlos Villanueva 0.64 14.0 29 CHC 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 9 643 1 .188 .250 .271 .521
6 Mike Minor 0.69 13.0 25 ATL 2 2 0 0 2 0 1.000 1 11 598 1 .213 .229 .340 .570
7 Ross Detwiler 0.69 13.0 27 WSN 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 6 581 1 .213 .288 .319 .608
8 Matt Harvey 0.82 22.0 24 NYM 3 3 0 0 3 0 1.000 6 25 476 1 .088 .160 .147 .307
9 Alexi Ogando 1.08 16.2 29 TEX 3 3 0 0 2 0 1.000 5 17 426 0 .194 .254 .226 .480
10 Clayton Kershaw 1.16 23.1 25 LAD 3 3 1 1 2 1 .667 4 25 333 0 .156 .198 .156 .353
11 Andy Pettitte 1.20 15.0 41 NYY 2 2 0 0 2 0 1.000 4 7 350 1 .241 .293 .352 .645
12 Jon Lester 1.42 19.0 29 BOS 3 3 0 0 2 0 1.000 3 18 309 0 .208 .250 .236 .486
13 Anibal Sanchez 1.42 19.0 29 DET 3 3 0 0 2 0 1.000 8 21 303 0 .152 .240 .197 .437
14 Kris Medlen 1.42 19.0 27 ATL 3 3 0 0 1 1 .500 6 9 289 1 .211 .266 .296 .562
15 Shelby Miller 1.46 12.1 22 STL 2 2 0 0 2 0 1.000 4 12 273 1 .119 .213 .190 .403
16 Patrick Corbin 1.50 12.0 23 ARI 2 2 0 0 2 0 1.000 4 6 284 0 .250 .320 .318 .638
17 Cliff Lee 1.52 23.2 34 PHI 3 3 0 0 2 0 1.000 1 18 271 1 .179 .186 .262 .448
18 Derek Holland 1.64 22.0 26 TEX 3 3 0 0 1 1 .500 4 15 280 1 .171 .210 .263 .473
19 Madison Bumgarner 1.77 20.1 23 SFG 3 3 0 0 3 0 1.000 7 17 205 2 .188 .273 .304 .577
20 Travis Wood 1.83 19.2 26 CHC 3 3 0 0 1 1 .500 8 13 224 0 .191 .276 .265 .541
21 Jaime Garcia 1.86 19.1 26 STL 3 3 0 0 1 0 1.000 9 19 212 2 .208 .296 .333 .630
22 Alex Cobb 1.93 14.0 25 TBR 2 2 0 0 1 1 .500 5 12 208 0 .220 .304 .240 .544
23 Jhoulys Chacin 1.96 18.1 25 COL 3 3 0 0 2 0 1.000 5 11 205 1 .210 .265 .323 .587
24 Bud Norris 1.96 18.1 28 HOU 3 3 0 0 2 1 .667 6 14 215 2 .206 .280 .294 .574
25 Justin Verlander 1.96 18.1 30 DET 3 3 0 0 2 1 .667 7 17 219 1 .206 .280 .309 .589
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/17/2013.

I was curious how often pitchers have a hot spring. Is it a hit miss thing, or do certain pitchers consistently perform better right out of the gate? To answer this, I’ve collected the 300 lowest ERAs in March/April for currently active pitchers with at least 20 IP in March/April in any of the past 10 seasons (2003-12). As these data are for pitchers who are currently active, there are more data for the most recent seasons, as indicated below.

Year
Data Points
Min of ERA
Max of ERA
2003 13 1.25 3.99
2004 9 1.69 3.73
2005 19 1.35 3.89
2006 16 1.45 3.77
2007 32 1.35 3.93
2008 28 0.96 3.93
2009 32 0.50 3.94
2010 44 0.69 3.82
2011 55 0.99 3.96
2012 52 0.90 3.94
Grand Total
300
0.50
3.99

For comparison to 2013, the 44th ranked ERA so far this season is John Lannon at 2.77, compared to 3.82 in 2010. Numbers 52 and 55 are 3.05 and 3.26, compared to 3.94 and 3.96 in 2012 and 2011. If those seem like huge differences, they are. But, the month’s not over, so the 2013 numbers will likely move closer to the figures you see above.

So, who are these fast starters? Here are the pitchers showing up most frequently among these 300 data points.

Pitcher
Times in Top 300
First Year
Last Year
Avg ERA (unweighted)
Avg ERA Diff (unweighted)
Jake Peavy 6 2003 2012 2.24 -0.76
James Shields 6 2007 2012 3.14 -0.70
Mark Buehrle 6 2003 2012 3.25 -0.66
Roy Halladay 6 2006 2011 2.68 -0.20
Tim Hudson 6 2003 2011 2.82 -0.37
Andy Pettitte 5 2003 2009 3.46 -0.37
Brett Myers 5 2003 2011 2.86 -1.07
Bronson Arroyo 5 2005 2012 3.05 -1.12
CC Sabathia 5 2003 2011 2.81 -0.61
Cliff Lee 5 2004 2012 2.59 -1.16
Dan Haren 5 2007 2012 2.17 -1.24
Derek Lowe 5 2005 2011 2.88 -1.16
Felix Hernandez 5 2008 2012 2.48 -0.47
Johan Santana 5 2005 2010 2.69 -0.28
Matt Cain 5 2007 2012 2.63 -0.44
Zack Greinke 5 2005 2012 2.38 -1.44
Barry Zito 4 2003 2012 2.39 -1.64
Cole Hamels 4 2007 2012 2.95 -0.13
Hiroki Kuroda 4 2008 2012 3.24 -0.14
Jered Weaver 4 2009 2012 2.00 -1.00
John Danks 4 2008 2011 2.80 -0.98
Justin Verlander 4 2006 2012 3.09 0.01
Kyle Lohse 4 2007 2012 2.13 -1.54
Ricky Romero 4 2009 2012 2.54 -1.65
Tim Lincecum 4 2008 2011 2.27 -0.55

To explain the table:

  • Times in Top 300 denotes the number of seasons represented in these data
  • First Year and Last Year denote the range of years represented by these data
  • Avg ERA is the average of ERA values for March/April among the years represented by these data, and equally weighted for each represented year
  • Avg ERA Diff is the average of the differences between the March/April ERA value and the pitcher’s overall ERA for that season, among the years represented by these data, and equally weighted for each represented year. Negative results indicate March/April ERA better than overall ERA

Some observations.

  • Pitchers in the table who are doing well this spring include Andy Pettitte, Cliff Lee and Justin Verlander (in the first list), as well as Kyle Lohse (2.08), CC Sabathia (2.25), Tim Hudson (2.50), Hiroki Kuroda (2.87) and Felix Hernandez (3.05).
  • Together with Dan Haren, James Shields has the longest running current streak in the table. He currently has a 3.43 ERA for his new club in Kansas City.
  • Notable fast starters who are not doing so well with their new clubs include Mark Buehrle (7.31) and Dan Haren (8.10).
  • Fast starters from last year who are struggling this spring include Cole Hamels (7.56), Matt Cain (5.94), Barry Zito (4.86), Bronson Arroyo (4.05) and Jake Peavy (3.93)
  • Pitchers who were fast starters before struggling to start 2012, and who are again starting slowly in 2013, include Tim Lincecum (5.62) and Roy Halladay (7.63)
  • Ricky Romero had a 4-year streak of fast starts into 2012, but has now slid all the way down to Class A where he is reportedly working on a completely revamped delivery.
  • Justin Verlander makes the table even with a March/April ERA that is the essentially the same as his overall ERA. Same story for David Price and Clayton Kershaw, both with 3 straight appearances in the table (2010-12). Kershaw is lights out again this year but Price (5.82) – not so much.

 

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Brent
Brent
11 years ago

Westbrook is doing so well that even when he doesn’t do well, Mother Nature smiles on him (yesteray he gave up 4 runs in 2 innings, but the rain wiped out the results)

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Brent

Masterson is hoping for the same. Three runs in the first, facing bases loaded no one out in the 2nd.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

Matt Cain and Barry Zito combined this year:

In best 4 starts: 27 IP, 2 ER
In other 2 starts: 6.1 IP, 18 ER

Mo
Mo
11 years ago

I am not understanding this analysis. To me, the tables should show who starts fast in March/April and then regresses to the mean in May-September. The fact that Justin Verlander shows up when his spring ERA is the same as his overall ERA means that he is steady, not that he is a fast starter.