Which pitchers are the toughest to run against? Well, Kenny Rogers on the left there is certainly among them (what do you think: is that Kenny’s no-look pickoff move to 1st base; or is he staring down the runner on 3rd as he delivers the pitch?)
There are a lot of ways to look at this question. After the jump, I’ll consider a few of them.
The next set of lists all show career results since 1973 for pitchers with a minimum of 1500 IP in that period.
First, the traditional metric of lowest stolen base %. These are the pitchers who allowed less than 50% successful stolen base attempts.
Rk | Player | IP | PO | SB | From | To | Age | BK | Tm | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kenny Rogers | 3302.2 | 41% | 79 | 3.20 | 5.36 | 63 | 1989 | 2008 | 24-43 | 23 | TEX-NYY-OAK-TOT-MIN-DET |
2 | Gaylord Perry | 2713.0 | 48% | 12 | 2.38 | 5.62 | 129 | 1973 | 1983 | 34-44 | 4 | CLE-TOT-TEX-SDP-ATL-SEA |
3 | Mark Buehrle | 2679.0 | 43% | 87 | 2.03 | 5.11 | 54 | 2000 | 2012 | 21-33 | 15 | CHW-MIA |
4 | Terry Mulholland | 2575.2 | 41% | 49 | 2.38 | 4.63 | 35 | 1986 | 2006 | 23-43 | 3 | SFG-PHI-NYY-CHC-TOT-ATL-CLE-MIN-ARI |
5 | John Candelaria | 2525.2 | 43% | 14 | 2.11 | 5.96 | 80 | 1975 | 1993 | 21-39 | 26 | PIT-TOT-CAL-NYY-LAD |
6 | Chris Carpenter | 2219.1 | 38% | 2 | 2.54 | 6.88 | 47 | 1997 | 2012 | 22-37 | 3 | TOR-STL |
7 | Kirk Rueter | 1918.0 | 34% | 30 | 2.73 | 3.84 | 34 | 1993 | 2005 | 22-34 | 0 | MON-TOT-SFG |
8 | Geoff Zahn | 1849.0 | 35% | 25 | 2.56 | 3.43 | 48 | 1973 | 1985 | 27-39 | 4 | LAD-TOT-CHC-MIN-CAL |
9 | Kirk McCaskill | 1729.0 | 47% | 21 | 3.46 | 5.22 | 66 | 1985 | 1996 | 24-35 | 9 | CAL-CHW |
10 | Brian Anderson | 1547.0 | 49% | 58 | 1.96 | 4.21 | 54 | 1993 | 2005 | 21-33 | 28 | CAL-CLE-ARI-TOT-KCR |
Next, allowing less than 3 stolen bases per 100 IP.
Rk | Player | IP | PO | SB | From | To | Age | BK | Tm | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kenny Rogers | 3302.2 | 41% | 79 | 3.20 | 5.36 | 63 | 1989 | 2008 | 24-43 | 23 | TEX-NYY-OAK-TOT-MIN-DET |
2 | Mark Buehrle | 2679.0 | 43% | 87 | 2.03 | 5.11 | 54 | 2000 | 2012 | 21-33 | 15 | CHW-MIA |
3 | Terry Mulholland | 2575.2 | 41% | 49 | 2.38 | 4.63 | 35 | 1986 | 2006 | 23-43 | 3 | SFG-PHI-NYY-CHC-TOT-ATL-CLE-MIN-ARI |
4 | Bartolo Colon | 2393.1 | 53% | 11 | 2.91 | 6.89 | 56 | 1997 | 2012 | 24-39 | 5 | CLE-TOT-CHW-ANA-LAA-BOS-NYY-OAK |
5 | Chris Carpenter | 2219.1 | 38% | 2 | 2.54 | 6.88 | 47 | 1997 | 2012 | 22-37 | 3 | TOR-STL |
6 | Roy Oswalt | 2213.0 | 62% | 6 | 2.08 | 7.39 | 63 | 2001 | 2012 | 23-34 | 7 | HOU-TOT-PHI-TEX |
7 | Johan Santana | 2025.2 | 55% | 20 | 2.52 | 8.83 | 47 | 2000 | 2012 | 21-33 | 12 | MIN-NYM |
8 | Carlos Zambrano | 1959.0 | 51% | 16 | 4.13 | 7.52 | 53 | 2001 | 2012 | 20-31 | 5 | CHC-MIA |
9 | Kirk Rueter | 1918.0 | 34% | 30 | 2.73 | 3.84 | 34 | 1993 | 2005 | 22-34 | 0 | MON-TOT-SFG |
10 | Geoff Zahn | 1849.0 | 35% | 25 | 2.56 | 3.43 | 48 | 1973 | 1985 | 27-39 | 4 | LAD-TOT-CHC-MIN-CAL |
Next, allowing less than 2.25% of baserunners allowed to steal successfully.
Rk | Player | IP | PO | SB | BR | From | To | Age | BK | Tm | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kenny Rogers | 3302.2 | 41% | 79 | 3.20 | 5.36 | 63 | 4940 | 1989 | 2008 | 24-43 | 23 | TEX-NYY-OAK-TOT-MIN-DET |
2 | Mark Buehrle | 2679.0 | 43% | 87 | 2.03 | 5.11 | 54 | 3591 | 2000 | 2012 | 21-33 | 15 | CHW-MIA |
3 | Terry Mulholland | 2575.2 | 41% | 49 | 2.38 | 4.63 | 35 | 3757 | 1986 | 2006 | 23-43 | 3 | SFG-PHI-NYY-CHC-TOT-ATL-CLE-MIN-ARI |
4 | Bartolo Colon | 2393.1 | 53% | 11 | 2.91 | 6.89 | 56 | 3325 | 1997 | 2012 | 24-39 | 5 | CLE-TOT-CHW-ANA-LAA-BOS-NYY-OAK |
5 | Chris Carpenter | 2219.1 | 38% | 2 | 2.54 | 6.88 | 47 | 3007 | 1997 | 2012 | 22-37 | 3 | TOR-STL |
6 | Roy Oswalt | 2213.0 | 62% | 6 | 2.08 | 7.39 | 63 | 2813 | 2001 | 2012 | 23-34 | 7 | HOU-TOT-PHI-TEX |
7 | Jon Garland | 2083.1 | 53% | 8 | 3.02 | 4.86 | 63 | 3017 | 2000 | 2011 | 20-31 | 1 | CHW-LAA-TOT-SDP-LAD |
8 | Johan Santana | 2025.2 | 55% | 20 | 2.52 | 8.83 | 47 | 2389 | 2000 | 2012 | 21-33 | 12 | MIN-NYM |
9 | Carlos Zambrano | 1959.0 | 51% | 16 | 4.13 | 7.52 | 53 | 2794 | 2001 | 2012 | 20-31 | 5 | CHC-MIA |
10 | Kirk Rueter | 1918.0 | 34% | 30 | 2.73 | 3.84 | 34 | 2798 | 1993 | 2005 | 22-34 | 0 | MON-TOT-SFG |
11 | Geoff Zahn | 1849.0 | 35% | 25 | 2.56 | 3.43 | 48 | 2657 | 1973 | 1985 | 27-39 | 4 | LAD-TOT-CHC-MIN-CAL |
12 | Vicente Padilla | 1571.1 | 61% | 6 | 3.16 | 6.42 | 51 | 2338 | 1999 | 2012 | 21-34 | 12 | ARI-TOT-PHI-TEX-LAD-BOS |
So, several of these pitchers appear multiple times on the lists. Some common factors evident for obvious reasons include handedness (mostly left-handers) and lower strikeout and walk totals (therefore, fewer deep counts and fewer pitches to steal on).
Other factors, not so easily measured, are catcher abilities and even ballpark influences (e.g. disincentives to running in a homer-friendly ballpark). To try to isolate pitcher contribution to limiting steals, let’s look at consistency of performance year in and year out. This should result in a variety of catchers represented and, in this free agent era, perhaps also a variety of different teams for many pitchers.
So, same metrics, but measuring number of seasons (min. 162 IP). First, allowing less than 50% successful steal attempts.
Rk | Yrs | From | To | Age | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kenny Rogers | 10 | 1993 | 2008 | 28-43 | Ind. Seasons |
2 | Chris Carpenter | 8 | 1998 | 2011 | 23-36 | Ind. Seasons |
3 | Mark Buehrle | 7 | 2002 | 2011 | 23-32 | Ind. Seasons |
4 | Tom Glavine | 7 | 1998 | 2007 | 32-41 | Ind. Seasons |
5 | Mike Mussina | 7 | 1993 | 2003 | 24-34 | Ind. Seasons |
6 | Kirk Rueter | 6 | 1997 | 2004 | 26-33 | Ind. Seasons |
7 | Frank Viola | 6 | 1984 | 1991 | 24-31 | Ind. Seasons |
8 | Geoff Zahn | 6 | 1978 | 1984 | 32-38 | Ind. Seasons |
9 | Bartolo Colon | 5 | 2000 | 2005 | 27-32 | Ind. Seasons |
10 | Rick Langford | 5 | 1977 | 1982 | 25-30 | Ind. Seasons |
11 | Ron Guidry | 5 | 1977 | 1985 | 26-34 | Ind. Seasons |
12 | John Candelaria | 5 | 1976 | 1984 | 22-30 | Ind. Seasons |
13 | Gaylord Perry | 5 | 1975 | 1982 | 36-43 | Ind. Seasons |
Less than 3 stolen bases per 100 IP.
Rk | Yrs | From | To | Age | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kenny Rogers | 12 | 1993 | 2008 | 28-43 | Ind. Seasons |
2 | Mark Buehrle | 11 | 2001 | 2012 | 22-33 | Ind. Seasons |
3 | Johan Santana | 7 | 2004 | 2010 | 25-31 | Ind. Seasons |
4 | Chris Carpenter | 7 | 2000 | 2011 | 25-36 | Ind. Seasons |
5 | Kirk Rueter | 7 | 1997 | 2004 | 26-33 | Ind. Seasons |
6 | Curt Schilling | 7 | 1996 | 2006 | 29-39 | Ind. Seasons |
7 | Terry Mulholland | 7 | 1990 | 1999 | 27-36 | Ind. Seasons |
8 | Roy Oswalt | 6 | 2004 | 2009 | 26-31 | Ind. Seasons |
9 | Bronson Arroyo | 6 | 2004 | 2010 | 27-33 | Ind. Seasons |
10 | Carlos Zambrano | 5 | 2003 | 2009 | 22-28 | Ind. Seasons |
11 | Bartolo Colon | 5 | 2000 | 2005 | 27-32 | Ind. Seasons |
12 | Tom Glavine | 5 | 1996 | 2007 | 30-41 | Ind. Seasons |
13 | Mike Mussina | 5 | 1993 | 2002 | 24-33 | Ind. Seasons |
14 | Frank Viola | 5 | 1984 | 1991 | 24-31 | Ind. Seasons |
Stolen bases of less than 2.25% of baserunners allowed.
Rk | Yrs | From | To | Age | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kenny Rogers | 13 | 1993 | 2008 | 28-43 | Ind. Seasons |
2 | Mark Buehrle | 10 | 2002 | 2012 | 23-33 | Ind. Seasons |
3 | Chris Carpenter | 7 | 2000 | 2011 | 25-36 | Ind. Seasons |
4 | Kirk Rueter | 7 | 1997 | 2004 | 26-33 | Ind. Seasons |
5 | Terry Mulholland | 7 | 1990 | 1999 | 27-36 | Ind. Seasons |
6 | Roy Oswalt | 6 | 2004 | 2009 | 26-31 | Ind. Seasons |
7 | Jon Garland | 6 | 2002 | 2010 | 22-30 | Ind. Seasons |
8 | Bartolo Colon | 6 | 2000 | 2005 | 27-32 | Ind. Seasons |
9 | Tom Glavine | 6 | 1996 | 2007 | 30-41 | Ind. Seasons |
10 | Johan Santana | 5 | 2005 | 2010 | 26-31 | Ind. Seasons |
11 | Bronson Arroyo | 5 | 2004 | 2008 | 27-31 | Ind. Seasons |
12 | Carlos Zambrano | 5 | 2003 | 2009 | 22-28 | Ind. Seasons |
13 | Matt Clement | 5 | 1999 | 2005 | 24-30 | Ind. Seasons |
14 | Mike Hampton | 5 | 1997 | 2004 | 24-31 | Ind. Seasons |
15 | Curt Schilling | 5 | 1996 | 2003 | 29-36 | Ind. Seasons |
16 | Mike Mussina | 5 | 1993 | 2002 | 24-33 | Ind. Seasons |
So, no matter how you slice it, our man Kenny comes out on top. But, we do have some new names to go with the holdovers from the career measurements. Any surprises?
Finally, to go to the opposite end of the spectrum, I offer Mickey Lolich. Not to pick on Mickey, but he did have the misfortune of allowing 4 stolen bases in the span of a single plate appearance. Plus a balk, two walks, and a 5th stolen base in the same inning.
Here is the game, from May 18, 1969. Harmon Killebrew comes to bat with runners on the corners and ends up striking out with the bases empty. In between, the two runners on base both score, with all advances coming by way of the stolen base (the manager, by the way, was Billy Martin, one of only 10 players to be caught stealing twice in the same World Series game) .
Inn | Score | Out | RoB | Pit(cnt) | R/O | @Bat | Batter | Pitcher | wWPA | wWE | Play Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bottom of the 3rd, Twins Batting, Behind 0-2, Tigers’ Mickey Lolich facing 1-2-3 | |||||||||||
b3 | 0-2 | 0 | — | MIN | C. Tovar | M. Lolich | -4% | 64% | Single | ||
b3 | 0-2 | 0 | 1– | MIN | R. Carew | M. Lolich | -3% | 62% | Balk; Tovar to 2B | ||
b3 | 0-2 | 0 | -2- | MIN | R. Carew | M. Lolich | -3% | 58% | Tovar Steals 3B | ||
b3 | 0-2 | 0 | –3 | MIN | R. Carew | M. Lolich | -5% | 53% | Walk | ||
b3 | 0-2 | 0 | 1-3 | R | MIN | H. Killebrew | M. Lolich | -3% | 50% | Tovar Steals Hm; Carew Steals 2B | |
b3 | 1-2 | 0 | -2- | MIN | H. Killebrew | M. Lolich | -4% | 46% | Carew Steals 3B | ||
b3 | 1-2 | 0 | –3 | R | MIN | H. Killebrew | M. Lolich | -1% | 45% | Carew Steals Hm | |
b3 | 2-2 | 0 | — | O | MIN | H. Killebrew | M. Lolich | 2% | 47% | Strikeout | |
b3 | 2-2 | 1 | — | O | MIN | T. Oliva | M. Lolich | 2% | 49% | Popfly: 3B | |
b3 | 2-2 | 2 | — | MIN | L. Cardenas | M. Lolich | -1% | 47% | Walk | ||
b3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1– | O | MIN | G. Mitterwald | M. Lolich | 3% | 50% | Flyball: LF | |
2 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 1 LOB. Tigers 2, Twins 2. |
Not to worry, Tiger fans. Those were the only runs the Twins would score as Lolich won an easy one, 8-2.