Circle of Greats 1980 Balloting Part 3

This post is for voting and discussion in the 143rd round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the last of three rounds of balloting adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1980. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group of 1980-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This group of 1980-born candidates, comprising those with N-Z surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.

In addition to voting for COG election among players on the main ballot, there will be also be voting for elevation to the main ballot among players on the secondary ballot. For the main ballot election, voters must select three and only three eligible players, and list them in ranked order. The first player listed on each ballot receives three points, the second player listed receives two points, and the third listed receives one point. The one player accumulating the most points from all ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. For the secondary ballot election, voters may select up to three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast elevated to the main ballot for the next COG election round. In the case of ties, a runoff election round will be held for COG election, while a tie-breaking process will be followed to determine the secondary ballot winner.

Players who fail to win either ballot but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. One additional round of eligibility is earned by any player who appears on at least 10% of the ballots cast or, for the main ballot only, any player finishing in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances. Holdover candidates on the main ballot who exhaust their eligibility will drop to the secondary ballot for the next COG election round, as will first time main ballot candidates who attract one or more votes but do not earn additional main ballot eligibility. Secondary ballot candidates who exhaust their eligibility will drop from that ballot, but will become eligible for possible reinstatement in a future Redemption round election.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EDT Sunday, March 9th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Friday, March 7th.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1980 Part 3 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also in the spreadsheet is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1980 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players, for both the main and secondary ballots, from the lists below of eligible players. The current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1980 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:

MAIN BALLOT ELIGIBILITY SECONDARY BALLOT ELIGIBILITY
Dick Allen 10 rounds Billy Williams 6 rounds
Vladimir Guerrero 7 rounds Bobby Abreu 4 rounds
Ted Lyons 6 rounds Ken Boyer 4 rounds
David Ortiz 4 rounds Don Sutton 4 rounds
Willie Randolph 4 rounds Andre Dawson 3 rounds
Stan Coveleski 3 rounds Don Drysdale 3 rounds
Todd Helton 2 rounds Monte Irvin 3 rounds
Johan Santana 2 rounds Reggie Smith 3 rounds
Luis Tiant 2 rounds Chase Utley 2 rounds
Richie Ashburn this round ONLY    
Andruw Jones this round ONLY    
Gary Sheffield this round ONLY    
Ted Simmons this round ONLY    
       

Everyday Players (born in 1980, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Albert Pujols
Mark Teixeira
Cody Ross
Nick Swisher
Shane Victorino
Laynce Nix
Skip Schumaker
Dan Uggla

Pitchers (born in 1980, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
CC Sabathia
Pat Neshek
Jonathan Papelbon
C.J. Wilson

As is our custom, here are quiz questions for each of the new players on the ballot.
1. Albert Pujols recorded .995 OPS for his post-season career. Among retired players with 200+ post-season PA, who has the only higher career post-season OPS? (Carlos Beltran, 1.021 OPS)
2. CC Sabathia recorded 115 ERA+ aged 35-37 after managing only 83 ERA+ aged 32-34, a 32 point improvement that is among the largest by any pitcher with 400+ IP in both periods. Which pitcher recorded the largest such ERA+ improvement? (Lefty Grove, 49 points, from 125 to 174)
3. Mark Teixeira led his league in home runs, RBI and total bases playing for the 2009 Yankees. Which other two players had the same trifecta while playing in their first season for a new team and winning the World Series? (Frank Robinson 1966, Shohei Ohtani 2024)
4. Pat Neshek finished his career with twelve consecutive seasons (2007-19) with more appearances than innings pitched. Which pitcher recorded the longest run of such seasons to close out a career? (Joe Smith, all 15 seasons of his career)
5. Shane Victorino compiled 31.5 WAR for his career, the most for non-pitchers born in Hawaii. Which pitcher leads all Hawaii-born players in career WAR? (Charlie Hough, 38.4 WAR)
6. Cody Ross was MVP of the 2010 NLCS in which he homered twice off of Roy Halladay in game 1. Which other Giant homered twice in a post-season game against a future HOF pitcher? (Will Clark, 1989 NLCS game 1, off of Greg Maddux)
7. Nick Swisher’s .165 BA for his post-season career is lowest among all players with 150+ career post-season PA. Which player active in 2024 currently holds the record for lowest career post-season OPS in 150+ post-season PA? (Martin Maldonado, .501 OPS)
8. Jonathan Papelbon recorded 17 consecutive scoreless appearances to begin his post-season career, tied with Trevor Rosenthal for the longest such streak when averaging 1+ IP per game. Among retired pitchers with zero runs allowed for their post-season careers, who recorded the most post-season games while averaging at least one IP per appearance? (Matt Herges, 10 games)
9. Laynce Nix ranked first in Total Zone Runs among NL left-fielders in 2009, despite playing only 558 innings (equivalent to 62 games) at the position that season. Which other player, like Nix, recorded career totals including 100+ games at each outfield position, and positive oWAR and dWAR, with at least three times as much of the latter as the former? (Endy Chavez)
10. Skip Schumaker played at both 2B and LF in 31 games in 2009, the most games in one season for that combination of positions. Which player recorded the most career games playing at both of those positions? (Ben Zobrist, 68 games)
11. C.J. Wilson snagged a W in his post-season debut, his only win in 10 post-season starts. Which other pitcher saw his post-season career begin the same way? (Gary Nolan)
12. Dan Uggla ranks first in career home runs among second basemen for the first season of a career, the first 3 seasons, first 4, first 5, first 6, first 7, and first 8. Which player bumped Uggla to second place for the first 2 seasons? (Gleyber Torres)

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Jeff Harris
Jeff Harris
1 month ago

Pujols, Williams, Allen

Doug
Doug
1 month ago
Reply to  Jeff Harris

Thanks Jeff.

However, if I am to count your vote, you must limit your picks to the players listed under the “Main Ballot” heading plus the born-in-1980 players.

The players listed under Secondary ballot are in a separate election. If you want to participate in that election, please choose up to 3 players listed under the heading “Secondary Ballot”.

Jeff Harris
Jeff Harris
17 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Main: Pujols, Allen, Guerrero

Jeff M
Jeff M
1 month ago

Main Ballot: Pujols, Sheffield, Papelbon
Secondary Ballot: Smith, Utley, Drysdale

no statistician but
no statistician but
1 month ago

I don’t usually look at the quiz questions, but I happened to notice the Teixeira one. The answer is Frank Robinson with Baltimore in 1966.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
1 month ago

Answer to question 12 is Gleyber Torres who had 62 HR in his first 2 seasons as compared to Ugglas’s 58.

Paul E
Paul E
1 month ago

#1 has to be Carlos Ivan Beltran, who, BTW, did not hit well with the aid of Astros’ trash cans

Paul E
Paul E
27 days ago
Reply to  Doug

IIRC, “tough pitch”….he just froze

Paul E
Paul E
1 month ago

#6 is Pablo Sandoval who crushed 3 in the opening game of a WS – two off Verlander

Doug
Doug
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul E

Ah yes, BUT Verlander isn’t in the Hall … yet.

There’s another answer, involving a pitcher already in the HOF.

Last edited 29 days ago by Doug
Paul E
Paul E
24 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Yes, but , since they’re all active when they surrender the home runs, aren’t they all future possible Hall of Famers?
Including, future Hall of Famer Red Faber who, while active in the 1917 WS, was tagged twice by one-time Federal League superstar Benny Kauff?

Paul E
Paul E
24 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Sorry, Will Clark off Greg Maddux, 1988 NLCS. Forget the Benny Kauff rant as he homered twice in a 1917 WS game but only one was off Red Faber

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
23 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I knew nothing about Danforth, not even his name. Quite a remarkable career, both in the Majors and in the Minors. His unusually long SABR biography is good reading.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
1 month ago

Doug: For question 2 I found 2 players with a larger improvement than Sabathia, Lefty Grove with an improvement of 49 and Justin Verlander with 41. Next in line is Sad Sam Jones with 31.

Doug
Doug
29 days ago

Looks like I screwed up the question (I think I meant to add “with ERA+ under 100 in the prior period”), as Sad Sam Jones was the answer I intended.

Good sleuthing.

Last edited 29 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
29 days ago

To lay some groundwork for discussion, I’m posting ranked B-R stats for WAR/162G for candidates, separating the two ballots and position players from pitchers (total WAR in brackets). I’ve included Albert and CC from the 1980 class (on the Primary Ballot), as well as Papelbon, since he has a vote already. (Papelbon’s WAR figures aren’t informative, though, since relief pitcher rates are always quite low. For context, Rivera’s rate of 3.4 [56.3] could be viewed as a contemporary gold standard, and perhaps Wagner’s rate of 2.2 [27.7] as HoF threshold.) Primary Ballot, position players Allen 5.4 [58.7] Pujols 5.3 [101.4]… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
29 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I don’t think we should overlook anything, Doug, and since Pujols’s CoG case is overwhelming it doesn’t affect the outcome anyway. WAR/162G captures one way of understanding the implications of Pujols’s long decline. The counter-weight is simply to stay aware of Pujols’s peak value, and the same would be true for Simmons (who doesn’t really fare well on either count when it comes to CoG norms). I do think we should not treat Pujols as having no agency over ending his decline. No one forced him to play out his contract and there are plenty of examples of players who… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
29 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Correction: “Pujols had already earned $20m” should have been “Pujols had already earned $200m.”

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
28 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I’m sure he added value through those intangibles, Doug, and that he didn’t want to retire. I’m also sure fans paid to see him. But Pujols was receiving a salary of $26-30m each year during his non-productive seasons (that would be ~$35m/yr now), playing at replacement level and blocking new talent. His underperformance contributed to his teammates having no experience of even a .500 season, and I can’t imagine that more fans would not have paid to see a contender. I can’t see any way that he did not take wins away from his team for years at the end… Read more »

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
29 days ago

Thanks for coming up with all the quiz questions, Doug.

For #5, I believe there are two Hawaiian-born players who exceed Shane Victorino’s WAR total.

Doug
Doug
29 days ago
Reply to  Scary Tuna

Oops. You’re right again.

I’ll rephrase the question, and then you can provide the answer.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
27 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Charlie Hough leads all Hawaiian-born players with 38.4 WAR (over 25 seasons).

Sid Fernandez had 31.4 pWAR, which would be just shy of Victorino’s 31.5 career WAR, but his 1.3 bWAR lift him into second place with 32.7 total.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
29 days ago

Question #4 answer: Joe Smith with 15 seasons.

no statistician but
no statistician but
29 days ago

In front of everyone’s nose:

Ohtani in 2024 matches Robinson and Teixeira to complete the answer to question 3.

Doug
Doug
28 days ago

You’re on a roll, nsb.

Voomo
Voomo
28 days ago

Vote:

Andruw Jones
Willie Randolph
Ted Lyons

The one drawback of having an inner circle dude like Pijols on the ballot is that we usually only get a week to talk about him.

So I’m voting strategically in the hope that big Albert is still around when we do this again next year.

Voomo
Voomo
28 days ago

Secondary Vote:

Drysdale
Irvin
Utley

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
28 days ago

For question #10 I came up with Ben Zobrist who had 59 such games.

Doug
Doug
27 days ago

Stathead has Zobrist with 68 such games, but he’s the guy. That total of 68 is made up of 59 games playing only 2B and LF, and 9 games playing those positions plus one more. So, you’re both right.

Last edited 27 days ago by Doug
Richard Chester
Richard Chester
28 days ago

Main vote:

Ortiz
Lyons
Coveleski

Secondary vote:

Williams
Abreu
Boyer

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
28 days ago

Last round, in response to Voomo’s posts, I began to notice some unusual elements in comparing Richie Ashburn and Andruw Jones. Andruw’s CoG case rests primarily on his reputation as the GOAT among centerfielders, based on fielding excellence. The B-R standard of Total Zone runs places Andruw, at 230, way ahead of the competition in CF (Willie Mays a distant second at 176), and behind only Brooks Robinson for all positions. On top of that, of course, Andruw hit over 400 HR. Compare Ashburn – Rtot 49 and only 29 career HR – and Richie seems like a minor leaguer… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
27 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob: Two things: One, by looking at the obvious to question the abstruse about a player, Richie Ashburn, from the 1950s, with the aim of arguing that the abstruse fails to credit his talent at a high enough level, you are doing what I’ve tried to do over the years regarding Whitey Ford. Even to admit that there are “outliers”—the trash bin of unexpected results—is enough to raise doubts in any rational mind as to the absolute accuracy of a supposed perfect system. Another player from that era I’ve reinvestigted recently who fails the WAR test is Bob Lemon. In… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
27 days ago

Tomb is as good a tome for its TPI ratings, it seems.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
26 days ago

Thanks for the kind words, nsb. I appreciate them. I spent time last night going over Lemon’s stats, trying to understand the factors that produce his surprisingly low pWAR and thinking about the conceptual issues involved. Some are clear enough. WAR doesn’t measure reliability, so when you refer to the impact on a GM of Lemon’s prolonged steadiness we should understand that the point is legitimate and must be supplied by us outside WAR. Others concern the degree to which the value assumptions of WAR are ones we endorse. Lemon is negatively impacted in a major way by park factor… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
25 days ago

nsb, I’ve been doing some work on Lemon, picking up on your passing comparison between Lemon and Spahn. I took as a base Lemon’s ten consecutive good years (1947-56), which comprised virtually his entire career: well over 90%. I took ten of Spahn’s solid years for comparison, 1953-1962: his initial ten years in Milwaukee. There’s a lot of comparability in those blocks. Spahn has a few more innings (2729 vs. 2613), but they’re close. Their W-L records are very close too, as are their ERA+ figures. More to the point when it comes to the factors WAR uses, they have… Read more »

Doug
Doug
25 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

I suspect that the RE24 difference is also related to the walk difference. Even just one extra walk per game can add up to a sizable RE24 difference at the end of the season. For example, if Spahn and Lemon pitch identical games all season long, except that Lemon walks the first batter of each game and Spahn retires him, that lone difference amounts to 0.65 RE24 for the game. Times 35 starts becomes 22.75 for the season. Times ten seasons becomes 227.5.

Last edited 25 days ago by Doug
no statistician but
no statistician but
25 days ago
Reply to  Doug

It isn’t always remembered that the ten year stretch or so following WWII was the era of the Walk. A number of batters, following the lead of Eddie Stanky, focussed on drawing bases on balls. There were the three other Eddies, Lake, Joost, and Yost (In 1951 Stanky, Yost and, Joost finished 3nd, 4rd, and 5th behind Ted Williams, who was drawing upwards of 140 free passes in the years he was whole and not at war, and Ralph Kiner at about 130/yr).Ferris Fain was another Walker of renown. Earl Torgeson. High profile pitchers, notably Tommy Byrne early, and, yes,… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
25 days ago

Addendum:

Checking league totals for the period, I find that the epidemic raged far more in the junior circuit, with up to a thousand more walks per year at the peak.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
24 days ago

Continuing the discussion about Bob Lemon, nsb, here’s what I’ve come up with comparing Bob Lemon and Billy Pierce, which may help illustrate (a little more) how pWAR deviates from intuitions (and how fWAR deviates pretty wildly!). As with the comparison with Spahn, WAR is harder on Lemon, but this time the comparison may be more apt precisely because Lemon and Pierce were pitching in the same league and the “walking man” phenomenon you describe was focused there, as you noted. Lemon is in the Hall with total WAR of 48.2, only 35.5 from pWAR (32.2 fWAR), and a 162G… Read more »

Doug
Doug
23 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Interesting that Lemon has the FIP edge despite more walks, fewer strikeouts and higher WHIP than Pierce. Lemon is helped by allowing 23% fewer HR, aided, no doubt, by the distant fences at Municipal Stadium (though Comiskey was hardly a homer haven, so that may be a wash). Pierce did allow fewer stolen bases (38 vs 59), but he should allow fewer being a southpaw, so probably not as significant a difference as it may appear. The other thing to bear in mind is that Lemon got to pitch to the White Sox instead of the Indians, a not inconsequential… Read more »

Last edited 23 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
23 days ago
Reply to  Doug

These sorts of granular data would be really interesting to compile, Doug — I didn’t have the available time this round and I’m glad you went a few steps further. What I’d love to have a year to do is go through the game records to better understand the implications of the WPA and RE24 figures. I think it’s actually Pierce who has the FIP edge, lower being better. I wonder about pitcher handedness and our assessments. Lefties generally have an edge in baseball because of being rarer and, in the case of batters, the extra step avoided. (Of course,… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
23 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, I’ve written (and later misplaced) that memo many times since joining this site.

KDS
KDS
25 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Andruw played in circumstances that did not favor being far above average in plays made, range factor per 9 innings. I checked every full year in Atlanta, (1997-2007), and the pitchers were generally average or above in strikeouts and consistently had a noticeably higher than average ratio of ground balls to fly balls. Nor was the park very big in center field. The only criticism of his rating that I’ve heard is that many of his catches may have been stolen. presumably mostly from his left and right fielders, but also from infielders, the second base umpire and a coupla… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
25 days ago
Reply to  KDS

This is a very strong argument, KDS. It seems to me to boil down to this: Ashburn had more room to field, a higher percentage of balls in play (because of lower strikeouts and CF HR), and a higher percentage of fly balls among balls in play. In comparison with Jones I think these are all unquestionably true, and field size and ground ball ratio were factors I didn’t consider. (Just thinking of Robin Roberts vs. Greg Maddux gives a good picture of different GB/FB ratios.) The first thing I did after seeing your post this morning was to look… Read more »

KDS
KDS
22 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Sorry it took me so long to reply, one version got eaten by the interwebs, before completion. Think about the Polo Grounds; if you add together the distances down the lines to the poles, you get just over 500 ft. I don’t know of any not short term MLB park that is significantly less than 600 ft. A 300 ft fly ball is an easy out in every park, but not if pulled down either line on that side of the Harlem River. I don’t think that this was unknown 70, or 100 years ago. With that background, I think… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
21 days ago
Reply to  KDS

Heck, KDS. Even I knew about it 70 years ago. I watched the ’54 Series with Dusty Rhodes’ famous first-game pinch-hit HR just into the RF seats (off Bob Lemon). It certainly contributed to the high HR totals Giants teams racked up. But I think the jury’s out on whether visiting players made significant changes to reach the corner seats when they came to town (hence Vic Wertz hitting straight away and into Mays’s glove at a critical moment a couple of innings earlier). I took one step to look into this and since the result points in a direction… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
27 days ago

I’m going to vote early and see whether conversation will persuade me to make a change: Pujols Ashburn Coveleski The CoG project is to do better than the BBWAA, and I don’t think that playing around with strategic voting when there’s an inner-circle CoG candidate fits the mission. After the first three votes (which would be 50% of the expected vote, if this round matches last round), Albert was tied with Jones, Ortiz, and Lyons. No way I’m going to put his election in jeopardy, even though I’m a long-time Lyons booster. Last round I was uneasy about successfully advocating… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
27 days ago

My Secondary Ballot picks are Irvin, Smith, and Boyer.

Among these three, Irvin is the only one whose name I’d include on a CoG Primary Ballot vote right now. I made a detailed argument for Irvin last Round, and it was so elegant that I convinced one voter he’s truly Circleworthy: me. It moved the needle for no one else (and the same fate may befall my Ashburn brief). But I’ll hold onto my advocacy until I’m either talked out of it or the terminal futility of my vote becomes obvious.

Paul E
Paul E
27 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
Fret not, mon frere. You convinced me that Ashburn was better than Jones…..

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
27 days ago
Reply to  Doug

One of the two is Curt Schilling, with 21 wins for the Red Sox in 2004.

If the question was phrased “first full season for a new team” (it isn’t), then the second could also be Schilling, with 22 wins for the Diamondbacks in 2001 who acquired him in a trade deadline week deal the previous July.

Doug
Doug
27 days ago
Reply to  Scary Tuna

Schilling in 2004 is correct. Not counting Schilling’s 2001 season, since he started with the D-Backs in 2000. Thus, he was not playing for a new team in 2001. I did a check of pitchers leading their league in Wins and playing for more than one team in that league. Red Barrett in 1945 is the only such pitcher, and the team he was traded to (the Cardinals) were not WS winners. It’s possible that one (or more) of the other league leaders also played for another team in the other league in the same season, but I didn’t find… Read more »

Last edited 26 days ago by Doug
Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
21 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I knew Schilling did not fit the criteria in 2001, but I thought it worth mentioning how close he came to pulling off the feat twice.

The other pitcher was Jack Morris in 1992 with the Blue Jays. In ‘91, he was two wins behind teammate Scott Erickson (and Detroit’s Bill Gullickson) in his only season with the Twins, falling just short of winning a World Series and leading his league in wins his first year with a team in consecutive seasons.

Voomo
Voomo
27 days ago
Reply to  Doug

In the pWAR leaderboards, CC is right there with David Cone.

Here is a discussion about Cone that happened on these pages 13 years ago:

http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/09/lets-talk-about-david-cone/

Voomo
Voomo
27 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

And there is this:

https://highheatstats.blogspot.com/2012/01/best-5-year-war-by-non-hof-pitchers.html?m=1

Who knew that I had a disqus profile? Pretty handy.

Paul E
Paul E
27 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Voomo, From the article: “A little perspective on Kevin Brown‘s 1996-2000 peak of 34.6 WAR: The two best 5-year spans this century are 33.2 by Randy Johnson (2000-04, 3 CYAs) and 31.8 by Johan Santana (2004-08, 2 CYAs). Brown topped them both. Roy Halladay‘s best 5-year WAR is 31.2. His 5 best individual seasons add up to 35.6 WAR.” From what I can tell (or, at least be told by B-R), it’s actually 39 WAR for Johnson for 2000-2004 (5 seasons) and 35.7 WAR for Santana (2004-2008)? Halladay is at 34 WAR for his best 5 consecutive seasons ? Has there been some sort of… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
27 days ago

Main:
Allen – RoY, MVP, best ML hitter from 1964 – 1974…
Ashburn – Bob’s posting convinced me that he’s the superior of Andruw Jones
Pujols – the only debate is whether he’s the 2nd or 3rd best 1B of all time

Secondary:
Williams
Sutton
Smith

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
27 days ago

I’m not sure of this one but I came up with Endy Chavez for question 9.

Doug
Doug
27 days ago

Chavez is correct.

Voomo
Voomo
26 days ago

After this round, I hope we can put some effort into a Second Chance ballot. We have been doing this for a long time, and while I think we’ve done a great job, we have had some stacked ballots where borderline players have been overlooked. Consider David Cone. If he were on the ballot today, we would be arguing about his candidacy vs CC Sabathia. However, when we did the 1963 year, he shared the space with Randy Johnson. And other holdovers included Holdovers: John Smoltz (eligible through 1958) Tom Glavine (1960) Mike Mussina (1960) Curt Schilling (1960) Craig Biggio… Read more »

Doug
Doug
26 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Yes, we will do that. Haven’t had a redemption round in quite some time.

Cone has an impressive WAR rate over 2 per 100 IP, in a group of just 46 pitchers in 1500 IP modern era careers, including Coveleski and Santana on the current ballot.

no statistician but
no statistician but
25 days ago

Once again I find myself in the position of needing to vote, but for a peculiar reason. To me it seems as if too many of the scant votership left have forgotten the purpose of the vote. Electing the best candidate to me ought to be the greatest priority, not to maneuver one candidate or another or a pair into prominence. Pujols ought to be the primary choice on all ballots, simply because he dominates statistically by such a great margin. Leaving him off the ballot entirely smacks of injustice if not insult. Sorry to be so blunt. Pujols Lyons… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
23 days ago

Concerning the discussion above of Bob Lemon, Pierce, etc:

Here are a pair of comparative charts from my delvings that might be of interest to your probe of the two, put in the context of two additional contemporary pitchers with better stats.

ERA+ and Six Other Stats by Innings Pitched

———————ERA+——PR———PW———RE24——WPA——-WPA/LI——REW

Whitey Ford—-133——.103———.0110——-.126———.0117——-.0101——-.0139
Warren Spahn-119——.071———.0075——-.098———.0113——-.0090——-.0109
Billy Pierce——119——.076———.0080——.089———.0103——-.0080——-.0096
Bob Lemon—-119——.067———.0069——-.085———.0099——-.0082——-.0092

Some additional comparisons:

———————WAR/IP——-fWAR/IP——-FIP———WHIP

Ford——————.0169——-.—0173—-——3.26———1.215
Spahn—————.0176———-..0143———-3.46———1.195
Pierce—————.0162————.0159———3.50———1.260
Lemon—————.0123———-.0113—-——3.81———1.337

Hope this helps to confuse the issue even more.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
22 days ago

nsb, I want to put Ford to the side for now because I’m not up to speed on his record at the moment (I know Ford is your prime example of why pWAR is unreliable), and I think Spahn, based in the NL, is hard to compare in detail, given the relevant era and the shape of Spahn’s career. I take your bottom line to be, essentially: Why does pWAR/IP award Lemon 24% less value than Pierce when the advanced stats you cite have him as much as 2.5% better and no more than 14% lower, and his ERA+ is… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
22 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob: I’ve never said that pWAR isn’t an important tool or that it isn’t the most important tool available in evaluating pitchers, but I can’t accept it as perfect or near perfect as the true measurement of what pitcher is the best in every circumstance. My skepticism goes in several directions. Here’s the first. I’ll elaborate on the others at a later date. When Tony Gwynn for the last place Padres in 1987 shows the highest batting WAR in the NL, I feel confident that the rating is just, since he finished first or second in the league in measurable… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
22 days ago

nsb, I think the bias you detect in pWAR isn’t as unintended as you suggest. Pitchers on good teams tend to have traditional stats that are buoyed by the quality of the teams behind them, while pitchers on losing teams are weighted down. One of WAR’s primary purposes is precisely to reset the scales so that pitchers on poor teams who have unremarkable records have a chance to emerge in competition with pitchers with flashy stats on good teams. So here’s a looked at Greene’s record compared to the “runner-up” in 2024 NL pWAR, Chris Sale. How in world could… Read more »

Doug
Doug
19 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob, a virtuoso performance in unpacking pWAR. Bravo!

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Thanks for the kind words, Doug. Not virtuoso, though — I’m just testing out basics. There are many formulas that are invisible and no way for us to assess, and I’m still in the shallows on the visible ones. And it’s all nsb’s doing, anyway. If he were not hammering at the implausibility of some pWAR ratings we’d all just be following along without effort beyond, perhaps, being fWAR curious.

Doug
Doug
21 days ago

My votes:

Main: Pujols, Coveleski, Tiant
Secondary: Drysdale, Utley, Smith

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
21 days ago

Main: Pujols, Sabathia, Ashburn
Secondary: Irvin, Boyer, Utley

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
20 days ago

Heading into the final hours of Round 3, these are the tabulations I have to this point. We seem to have eight ballots, matching the high point for this year, so the voting might be over, but who knows? – we could have a last minute newcomer or the return of a long lost friend of the site. It looks as though Albert has locked up his Circle induction, but a single late vote could change the Secondary Ballot outcome. In the tabulations below, I’ve indicated the weighted votes for the Primary Ballot, and placed the total number of ballot… Read more »

opal611
opal611
20 days ago

For the 1980 – Part 3 election, I’m voting for:

Albert Pujols
CC Sabathia
Todd Helton

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Randolph
-Guerrero
-Ortiz
-Tiant
-Allen
-Lyons
-Coveleski
-Sheffield

Thanks!

opal611
opal611
20 days ago

For the Secondary Ballot, I’m voting for:

-Don Sutton
-Andre Dawson
-Chase Utley

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
20 days ago
Reply to  opal611

When I saw opal611’s vote I thought the Secondary Ballot result had changed, but on reflection I realized I’d been wrong to say one vote could change it — I’d forgotten the tiebreaker rule. Here’s what I have for the outcome, with 9 total ballots: Primary Ballot 19 Pujols [7] —— 25%-49% 6 Ashburn [4] 5 Lyons [3] 4 Coveleski [3] —— 10%-24% 4 Sabathia [2] 3 Allen [1], Ortiz [1], Jones [1] 2 Randolph [1], Sheffield [1], 1 Papelbon, Tiant, Helton —— 0 Guerrero, Santana, Simmons Secondary Ballot 5 Smith —— 50% or more 5 Utley —— 25%-49% 4… Read more »

Doug
Doug
19 days ago

Apologies if I missed your answers to the remaining quiz questions, which are: #7 – Martin Maldonado has the lowest career post-season OPS (.501) in 150+ post-season PA. #8 – Matt Herges recorded the most post-season games (10) among retired pitchers with as many (or more) IP as games and zero runs allowed in their post-season careers. #11 – Gary Nolan started his post-season career the same way as C.J. Wilson, with a W in his post-season debut (an 8 hit, 4 walk shutout on only 110 pitches), and only L’s and ND’s for his next nine starts. Wilson’s post-season… Read more »

Last edited 19 days ago by Doug