Circle of Greats 1980 Balloting Part 1

This post is for voting and discussion in the 141st round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the first of three rounds of balloting adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1980. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group of 1980-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This group of 1980-born candidates, comprising those with A-G surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.

In addition to voting for COG election among players on the main ballot, there will be also be voting for elevation to the main ballot among players on the secondary ballot. For the main ballot election, voters must select three and only three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast in the round inducted into the Circle of Greats. For the secondary ballot election, voters may select up to three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast elevated to the main ballot for the next COG election round. In the case of ties, a runoff election round will be held for COG election, while a tie-breaking process will be followed to determine the secondary ballot winner.

Players who fail to win either ballot but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. One additional round of eligibility is earned by any player who appears on at least 10% of the ballots cast or, for the main ballot only, any player finishing in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances. Holdover candidates on the main ballot who exhaust their eligibility will drop to the secondary ballot for the next COG election round, as will first time main ballot candidates who attract one or more votes but do not earn additional main ballot eligibility. Secondary ballot candidates who exhaust their eligibility will drop from that ballot, but will become eligible for possible reinstatement in a future Redemption round election.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Sunday, February 9th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Friday, February 7th.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1980 Part 1 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also in the spreadsheet is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1980 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players, for both the main and secondary ballots, from the lists below of eligible players. The current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1980 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:

MAIN BALLOT ELIGIBILITY SECONDARY BALLOT ELIGIBILITY
Dick Allen 9 rounds Billy Williams 5 rounds
Vladimir Guerrero 6 rounds Bobby Abreu 4 rounds
David Ortiz 4 rounds Ken Boyer 4 rounds
Willie Randolph 3 rounds Stan Coveleski 3 rounds
Gary Sheffield 3 rounds Andre Dawson 3 rounds
Luis Tiant 3 rounds Andruw Jones 3 rounds
Ted Lyons 2 rounds Monte Irvin 3 rounds
Scott Rolen 2 rounds Don Sutton 3 rounds
Johan Santana 2 rounds Reggie Smith 2 rounds
Richie Ashburn this round ONLY Don Drysdale this round ONLY
Todd Helton this round ONLY    
Minnie Minoso this round ONLY    
Ted Simmons this round ONLY    
Chase Utley this round ONLY    
Brandon Webb this round ONLY    

Everyday Players (born in 1980, A-G surname, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Nelson Cruz
José Bautista
Rajai Davis
Jonny Gomes
John Buck
Chris Denorfia

Pitchers (born in 1980, A-G surname, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Matt Belisle
Santiago Casilla
Josh Beckett
Joe Blanton
Kevin Correia
Craig Breslow
Neal Cotts

As is our custom, here are quiz questions for each of the new players on the ballot.
1. Nelson Cruz’s 464 career HR are the most among players with zero HR before their age 24 season. Who was the first such player to reach 400 career home runs? (Darrell Evans, 1988)
2. Matt Belisle’s 10 wins in 2011 were the most that season among Rockie pitchers with a winning record. Which pitcher posted consecutive seasons similarly leading the Rockies in wins, while pitching, like Belisle, only in relief? (Daniel Bard, 2022-23)
3. Santiago Casilla posted six consecutive 50+ IP seasons (2010-15) with a .500+ W-L% and ERA under 3, a record run of such seasons by a reliever. Which pitcher shares that record with Casilla? (Hoyt Wilhelm, 1964-69)
4. José Bautista’s four seasons with 35+ home runs, 100+ walks and 100+ RBI are a Blue Jay franchise record, and place him among only 15 players with as many such seasons. Which player recorded the lowest OPS and OPS+ in such a season? (Kyle Schwarber, 2023)
5. Josh Beckett won 20 games for the Red Sox in 2007. Who was the first Red Sox 20 game winner as tall as Beckett at 6’ 5”? (Jim Lonborg, 1967)
6. Rajai Davis’s 8th inning game-tying home run in game 7 of the 2016 World Series improved his team’s Championship WPA by 39%, the most for a player whose team did not win the World Series. Davis stole 415 bases in a career of fewer than 5000 PA. Which player has the only larger stolen base total in such a career? (Ron Leflore, 455 SB)
7. Kevin Correia posted a record seven consecutive seasons (2008-14) with 100+ IP and ERA+ under 100. Which other two pitchers share that record? (Harry McIntire 1905-11, Jack Fisher 1961-67)
8. Jonny Gomes’s 3-run home run in game 4 of the 2013 World Series garnered 0.37 WPA for the eventual champion Red Sox and was the biggest WPA event of the series. Which player hit the home run yielding the highest WPA for the Red Sox in any World Series game? (Bernie Carbo, 1975 World Series game 6)
9. Joe Blanton’s 75 appearances in 2016 are the most by a Dodger pitcher aged 35 or older. Which pitcher recorded the most career games for the Dodgers aged 35 or older? (Dazzy Vance 1926-35, 239 games)
10. Craig Breslow’s 1.81 ERA in 2013 is the lowest by a Boston left-hander in a 50+ IP season pitching exclusively in relief. Breslow’s ERA ballooned to 5.96 the next season, the biggest jump in ERA for any Boston left-hander in such consecutive seasons. Who held the latter record before Breslow? (Rob Murphy, 1989-90)
11. John Buck was an All-Star selection in 2010, despite an almost 7 to 1 SO/BB ratio. Which catcher recorded the highest SO/BB ratio in an All-Star season? (Ivan Rodriguez 2007, 10.7 SO/BB ratio)
12. Neal Cotts posted a 233 ERA+ in 2005, best among undefeated relievers in 60+ IP seasons for world championship teams. Which pitcher shares that record with Cotts? (Mariano Rivera, 1998)
13. Chris Denorfia recorded five straight seasons (2011-15) playing 100+ games, including 5 or more at each outfield position, and is the only player to do so aged 30 to 34. Which player recorded the longest run of 100+ game seasons, at any age, including 10 or more games at each outfield position? (Jim Northrup, 1967-73)

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Bob Eno
Bob Eno
30 days ago
Reply to  Doug

A helpful rule of thumb, Doug. I have to admit that I have real trouble evaluating relievers’ career stats and probably always will. It took me several years to acknowledge that Wagner was even worthy of consideration, given his IP totals. But the more I put him in comparative perspective the more I supported his election. (I voted for him in the end, but somehow my ballot was lost in the mail.)

Voomo
Voomo
30 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Hey Bob, the “rule of thumb” is that it is only legal to beat your wife with a switch no thicker than your thumb. That’s where that comes from.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
30 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Precisely, Voomo. I’ve been shouting at my wife all morning that 20+ saves with 1.0+ WAR justifies Wagner’s election. She’s still telling me to talk a walk but I’m afraid she’ll switch to hitting soon.

Paul E
Paul E
30 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Voom:
Here is the “disclaimer” from the politically-correct, DEI-approved, AI generated, Albert Gore-invented Internet of Things:
“Misuse

  • Some people believed that the phrase “rule of thumb” originated from English common law, and that it reflected a law which allowed a husband to beat his wife. 
  • This belief was incorrect and spread in law journals and other sources.” 

The search I initiated was something along the lines of “origin of the term “rule of thumb”. Veracity being the basis of any relationship, let me be candid and state that I prefer your explanation.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
30 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Thumbs up on that, Paul.

(I stopped shouting before she socked me anyway.)

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
30 days ago

It’s notable that if you total the WAR total of all 13 players in the class of 1980, the amount comes to about 10% more than one Babe Ruth. I’m going to focus on the holdover lists. In a post the other day I said I tended to give a lot of weight to WAR/162g as a helpful tool in evaluating HoF caliber. To start analysis here I thought I’d note the figures for our holdover lists, separating bWAR from pWAR, and using B-R figures. (For Minoso I’m using only his MLB years and estimating; for Irwin I’m using his… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
30 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
It’s notable that if you total the WAR total of all 13 players in the class of 1980, the amount comes to about 10% more than one Babe Ruth.”
If you doubled the “Filthy 13” to make a full roster, they probably wouldn’t win 75 games in a 162-game season

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
30 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

No reflection on them, though — not their fault that they didn’t have any superstars in their third of the alphabet. After all, when we get to another swath of eligible players Albert Pujols, with his 101.4 WAR will be smiling at us. I’m not sure whether CC will be in the same cluster of letters, but his 62.3 is approaching as well.

Doug
Doug
30 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Our focus will definitely be on the 1980 players in the last instalment, with Albert and CC leading the way.

Doug
Doug
30 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

They’d definitely be short of starting pitchers, but with two Bautistas, two Cruzes and two Becketts, I think 75 wins is a pretty pessimistic projection.

Paul E
Paul E
29 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug,
Beckett seemed to “coast” in the regular season and then put on his Superman cape for the playoffs. In his 10 initial post-season appearances he clocked a 1.73 ERA in ~72 innings; 7.71 in the 21 innings after that.

Paul E
Paul E
30 days ago

Now that Dick Allen has made the Hall, are there any players who have had three 8-oWAR seasons in a career not elected to the Hall of Fame besides Joe Jackson and the steroid guys?

Doug
Doug
30 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Excepting the steroid guys, among players outside the Hall and currently eligible, Chase Utley (on our ballot) and Snuffy Stirnweiss (who knew?) lead the way with a pair of 8 WAR seasons. Among pitchers by the same criteria, there’s a raft of 19th century guys with three or more 8 WAR seasons, plus Noodles Hahn with three such seasons and 7.9 WAR in a fourth (Hahn might have gone on to post some historic career totals, but 1900+ IP by age 25, incl. 143 CG in 146 starts, was just about all his arm could give). Those with two such… Read more »

Last edited 30 days ago by Doug
Paul E
Paul E
29 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, Actually, Allen had three “8-Owar” seasons and merely two “8-WAR” seasons due to his fielding deficiencies (1966) and/or injuries (1967). Allen had not played a single inning of 3B in the minors when Mauch decided that Allen was his 3B for his 1964 rookie season. So, he made 41 errors…. He did finish among the top three in assists and DP’s those first two seasons. Interestingly, there is a stretch of about 165 games at 3B between injuries where he makes roughly 20 errors in over 1350 innings. But, just when he’s adjusting to the position, he dislocates his… Read more »

Doug
Doug
29 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Allen seemed to be progressing at 3B before those injuries, with his Fld% at 3B going 921, then .943 and, in ’66, .967 which was above league average (his range factor was close to league average each season). But, then it’s .908, .786 (only 10 games and 28 chances, but 6 errors) and, in 1970, .895 (11 errors in 105 chances). Allen played most of the ’68 season in LF and led the league with the best fielding percentage at that position combined with league average range factor, so not a surprise he didn’t play at 3B at all in… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
28 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug: “But, in ’71 the Dodgers play him ~45%/35%/20% at 3B/LF/1B; he’s .918 at 3B, and league average or a bit below at the other spots.” You may recall that there was a kid who was supposed to play 3B for the Dodgers in 1971 but he failed to hit and Allen filled in? Former MSU Sparty, Steve Garvey. Just a BTW, Allen knocked himself unconscious running into a palm tree in spring training shagging fly balls. He had a very slow start to the season batting .210/.328/.381 thru 35 team games. I imagine initially the plan was Wes Parker… Read more »

Doug
Doug
28 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Thanks for the context, Paul. I hadn’t realized Garvey was originally intended to be a third baseman. Garvey had really solid range factor at 3B in the games he played there in ’71 and ’72, but his fielding percentage was a problem, in the Allen/Hobson range. Fortunately for the Dodgers, they found their man (Cey) in ’73, Garvey moves to 1B and the Dodger infield is set for a decade.

Garvey’s six 200+ hit seasons are second only to Lou Gehrig (8) among first basemen. No other first baseman in the past 85 years has more than three such seasons.

Paul E
Paul E
25 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug,
Steve didn’t walk much but certainly put the ball in play. You may recall Bill James harping on the fact that Gravey didn’t take a walk to such an extent that Greg Brock (Garvey’s replacement after the move to San Diego) was more valuable offensively despite his .224 BA?

Tom
Tom
1 day ago
Reply to  Doug

Garvey hurt his shoulder playing football at Michigan State.

opal611
opal611
30 days ago

For the 1980 – Part 1 election, I’m voting for:

-Vladimir Guerrero
-Todd Helton
-Willie Randolph

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):

-Rolen
-Utley
-Tiant
-Allen
-Lyons
-Ashburn
-Sheffield

Thanks!

opal611
opal611
30 days ago
Reply to  opal611

Doug– Hello! Just a reminder, for the 1979 – Part 3 vote, I sent the following question: “Quick Note: Should Brandon Webb have been listed as one of the new candidates for this selection? I would not be voting for him, but it looks like he had a 33.0 WAR.” And you responded: “You’re absolutely right, Opal. Brandon should be on the list. Sorry I missed him. I’m guessing Webb would not have been the winner of the round but, since he arguably could have attracted a vote with that WAR total, I’ll keep him on the ballot for our… Read more »

opal611
opal611
30 days ago

For the Secondary Ballot, I’m voting for:

-Don Sutton
-Andre Dawson
-Andruw Jones

Thanks!

Voomo
Voomo
29 days ago

Minnie Minoso played full time through age 49.

I propose that his career needs to be considered somewhat outside the boxes of WAR and counting stats.

His MLB career was delayed due to his ancestry. And if, through the efforts of b-ref, we are including numbers from those leagues, let’s also look at Minoso’s 1950 in the PCL, and his unique ability to defy time with his Mexican league durability at an age when testosterone tends to wane..

Doug
Doug
29 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Looking at Minoso’s time playing in Mexico after his major league days were done: -he tore up the circuit with OPS of 1.007 and .872 in 100+ games at age 41 and 42. -then, perhaps he was trying to retire but was coaxed into suiting up for a game now and then (?), as he logged only 13 and 22 games the next two seasons. -but, at age 45, he was back over 100 games and still with OPS north of .800. -at age 46, it was a Ruthian 1.214 OPS, apparently mostly as a pinch-hitter as he logged only… Read more »

Last edited 29 days ago by Doug
DSC
DSC
29 days ago

Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton, Scott Rolen. Andre Dawson, Don Drysdale, Don Sutton.

Doug
Doug
29 days ago
Reply to  DSC

Thanks DSC, and welcome to the site.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
28 days ago

Thanks for putting this together, Doug. While considering the candidates for whom I want to vote / advocate, I looked through the quiz questions. For #7, the cynic in me says to start by looking at Correa’s 2013-14 teammates, then consider any Twins starters of the preceding decade not named Santana nor Liriano.

For #6 though, I’ll guess Ron LeFlore.

Doug
Doug
28 days ago
Reply to  Scary Tuna

Thanks for getting the ball rolling on the quiz questions. Leflore is correct. Leflore, Lou Brock and Vince Coleman share the record of 4 seasons with 50+ SB, 50+ BB, 90+ R and 90 K’s (all three recorded those seasons in a span of 5 years).

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
28 days ago

Voomo has started us out with substantive discussion on Circle of Great candidates. He’s advocated for Minnie Minoso on the basis of a number of factors beyond Minoso’s MLB stats and I think Voomo makes good arguments. Minoso’s a solid pick. (I can add my own recollection of Minoso as one of the most electric players of the ’50s–kids like me vied for his baseball card.) It used to be that CoG voters waited for discussion to unfold, and I hope we can return to that–votes can be changed through next Wednesday, for those who have made quick decisions but… Read more »

no statistician But
no statistician But
28 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob: A pair of comments: 1) According to Bill James, if my memory serves, it wasn’t just Coveleski who suffered from the sense of needing to succeed to stay in the rotation or on the team. James sites the strangely up-and-down career of Mickey Vernon, seven time All-Star first baseman (1939-1960) who had notable down moments, in Vernon’s case resulting from health conditions he kept silent about in order not to lose his status as starter. In fact, management has done a U-turn concerning injury and illness in the last four decades or so, roughly corresponding to the inflation of… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
28 days ago

James cites, too.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
28 days ago

Nice to see Vernon getting some recognition here, nsb. Despite his career fluctuations (which included two widely separated batting titles) he was a steady force on his — generally poor — teams: 14 seasons stuck on Griffith’s Senators, ugh! He lost two prime years, ages 26 & 27, to the Service in the War, and still #4 all-time in games at 1B. Another working class guy, but less oppressed by poverty, and I think his personality was very different from Coveleski’s. Lots of testimonials to what a solid and supportive teammate he was. My sense is that Covey was too… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
25 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Vernon grew up in Marcus Hook PA where his father worked for Sun Oil. “The Hook” is a unique place and home to many refineries. If you merely “google” Marcus Hook images, I’m sure you’ll see the smoke and soot “abillowing”.
As far as Griffith Stadium being a notorious pitcher’s park, Vernon’s home/away split differences are surprising insignificant

Voomo
Voomo
27 days ago

I’ve been a supporter of Willie Randolph, because I saw him play, a lot, and appreciated how perfectly he played his role. However, I’m going to pass on him for this round. We are asking the question of who was “great “. Greatness can be assessed in multiple ways. There is the clear cut “he was the best player at his position during his prime, and he had longevity.” There is maybe nobody on our list that clearly fits that description. So I’m going to go with one player who was the best in the game (without longevity), and two… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
27 days ago

Vote:

Theodore Amar Lyons
Saturnino Orestes Armas Miñoso
Johan Alexander Santana

Voomo
Voomo
27 days ago

Secondary ballot vote:

Dod Drysdale
Andruw Jones
Billy Williams

Drysdale is on the bubble, and I don’t think he should drop out of the conversation.

Jones is in the argument for greatest defensive CF of all time.

Williams has the 6th longest consecutive game playing streak, and led the league in TB 3 times in his 30s.

Voomo
Voomo
27 days ago

Doug, do you have access to an email list of everyone who has ever contributed to this site?

If so, would it be hygienic to send a message reminding folks of the COG project?

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
27 days ago

I went back to look at the string for our final CoG discussion last year and found it full of interesting stats and arguments about them, most applying to the same pool of players we have now (but also going off on tangents of interest). I thought I’d just embed a link to it here.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
27 days ago

For quiz question number 4 I came up with Mark McGwire for lowest OPS with .859 in 1990 and Adam Dunn for lowest OPS+ with 131 in 2008.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
26 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Then how about Kyle Schwarber with.817 OPS and 121 OPS+ in 2023.

Last edited 26 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
27 days ago

As those here know, nsb has expressed little faith in pWAR. Though we adhere to different faiths, I’m not here to dispute him. In place of pWAR, nsb has recommended we consult six pitching categories (in pairs): Adjusted Pitching Runs/Wins (APR & APW); Win Probability Added, with and without reference to Leverage (WPA & WPA/LI); Run Expectancy based on situational performance, in runs and wins (RE24 & REW). I’m somewhat comfortable with most of these (not WPA/LI, much as I’ve read about it), but not comfortable enough to rely on them. I’m still mired in the class of stats at… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
27 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Too late to edit, but I just noticed an errant underline for Lyons’ WPA rank. I guess my eyes were misaligned. (Better go check in the mirror . . .)

no statistician but
no statistician but
26 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

ERA+ and the Six Stats by Innings Pitched ———————ERA+——PR———PW———RE24——WPA——-WPA/LI——REW Coveleski——-127——-.086——-.0091——-.106——-.0130——-.0098——-.0113 Drysdale———121——-.066——.0072———.086——.0082——-.0078——-.0101 Lyons————-118——-.067——.0067——-..089——.0086——-.0071——-.0096 Sutton————108——-.034——.0040———.057——.0063——-.0081——-.0065 Tiant—————114——.056——.0064———.063——.0072——-.0065——-.0071 Santana———136——-.132——.0137———.149——.0141——-.0135——-.0156 Coveleski benefits from his dead-ball years, when all the stats skewed somewhat higher, but Santana especially benefits by having pitch exclusively in the post-live ball era when the stats are juiced by never having to pitch a complete game. In Johan’s case, 15 CGs in 360 starts. And, like Koufax, he had no downside to his career. Well, 117 IP. Also he pitched 1000 innings fewer than Coveleski, 1400 fewer than Drysdale and Tiant, 2000 fewer that Lyons, and 3100 fewer than Sutton. Cross era comparisons… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
26 days ago

Good observations, as always. Concerning the conditions of the current era and the impact on stats of fine careers cut short, here are Brandon Webb’s comparables (about 65% of Santana’s IP, but with identical CG totals): ERA+ 142 PR .130 PW .0134 RE24 .111 WPA .0110 WAR/LI .0101 REW .0111 He most resembles Santana on the context-independent figures and Coveleski on the others. And, since nsb mentioned Koufax and I calculated his figures, I’ll include them (~15% more IP than Santana, 9x the CGs): ERA+ 131 PR .103 PW .0112 RE24 .115 WPA .0146 WAR/LI .0135 REW .0142 Koufax would… Read more »

Doug
Doug
26 days ago

The RE24, REW and WPA stats all depend on play-by-play data, so you’re looking at complete or virtually complete data for Drysdale, Sutton, Tiant and Santana, and only partial data for Coveleski and Lyons.

Last edited 26 days ago by Doug
Richard Chester
Richard Chester
27 days ago

Quiz question number 9. Dazzy Vance pitched in 239 games for the Dodgers from age 35 and on.

Doug
Doug
26 days ago

Vance is correct.

Vance is one of three pitchers (the other two were his contemporaries, one his teammate for two seasons) to start 200+ games and relieve in 75+ games aged 35 or older.

Last edited 26 days ago by Doug
Richard Chester
Richard Chester
26 days ago

For question number 1 I came up with Jason Giambi.

Doug
Doug
26 days ago

It’s not Giambi.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
25 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I suppose it must be Darrell Evans then.

Doug
Doug
25 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Evans is the one. His first home run was off of Bob Gibson at the age of 24 years, 3 days. He reached 400 HR at age 41 in 1988.

Didn’t seem to matter what type of pitcher Evans faced: his four favorite guys to homer off of were Seaver (8), Hooton (7), Phile Niekro (6) and Blyleven (5), who featured, respectively, the fastball, knuckle curve, knuckleball and curveball.

Last edited 24 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
25 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I don’t usually jump for these quizzes, but the astonishment of seeing Richard miss can have cataclysmic effects.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Ha! I similarly thought, “Something’s up. Richard doesn’t miss.” It was satisfying then to find that Giambi fits the criteria; he just wasn’t the first to do so. Then my world made sense again.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
26 days ago

For question number 7 I found a guy named Harry McIntyre who did it from 1905-1911,

Doug
Doug
25 days ago

McIntire is one. His 98 losses over his first 5 seasons are a modern era high.

Last edited 25 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
25 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Well, of course, McIntire. . . We all know McIntire, don’t we? . . . Ok, no. But there’s more to McIntire than mere losses. A little searching has led me to a 2007 online discussion claiming that McIntire was the second all-time meanest pitcher in MLB history, a characteristic measured by the ratio of HBP to WP. The idea behind this is that some HBP are caused by wildness, rather than meanness, and wildness should show up in WP counts too. So HBP/WP should be a measure of how weighted towards intentional headhunting the HBP count should be. (I… Read more »

Doug
Doug
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Good catch, Bob. I suspect the losses had something to do with making Harry mean. For those 5 seasons of misery in Brooklyn, McIntire plunked 82 batters but tossed only 9 wild ones. In 1300 IP! That’s like one wild pitch every 16 complete games. So, if the wild pitch data can be relied on, wild pitches were absolutely the least of McIntire’s problems. As for the HBP, McIntire led the league three times in 5 years, including his last two years in Brooklyn. At this point, McIntire is traded to the Cubs. For three players! (three really bad players,… Read more »

Last edited 24 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
24 days ago
Reply to  Doug

And now, look! We all actually do know McIntire. The magic of HHS.

Paul E
Paul E
25 days ago

#5 is Jim Lonborg (1967)

Paul E
Paul E
25 days ago

Is the answer to #8 Bernardo Carbo, Game 6, 1975 World Series (and not Carlton Fisk)?

Paul E
Paul E
25 days ago

Is #11, Ivan Rodriguez of the 2007 Tigers (97K/9BB)?

Doug
Doug
25 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Lonborg, Carbo and Pudge are all correct.

Carbo homered off of Rawly Eastwick in game 6. Eastwick also gave up a Dwight Evans shot in game 3. Both were 8th inning game-tying blasts that rank in the top 5 in WPA for Red Sox WS homers. Despite those two blown saves, Eastwick sports a 2-0 record for the series and a nifty 2.25 ERA (the runners on base for those homers were charged to the pitchers who preceded Eastwick in those games).

Last edited 24 days ago by Doug
Richard Chester
Richard Chester
25 days ago

For question 11 I found Jim Northrup with 7 such consecutive seasons from 1967 to 1973.

Doug
Doug
24 days ago

Northrup is the one.

Paul E
Paul E
24 days ago

#12 is Mariano Rivera who went 3-0 for the ’98 NYY. In 2008, Brad Lidge went 2-0 with 41/41 on saves (IIRC) but could only muster a 224 ERA+ for Philadelphia….slacker 🙁

Doug
Doug
24 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Rivera is correct. Lidge’s 41 saves in 2008 are easily the most of any pitcher on any team with nary a defeat nor blown save. Wily Peralta of the 2018 Royals is next with only 14 saves.

As for Cotts, he was 0 for 2 in save opportunities for the world champion 2005 White Sox, a team that, surprisingly, logged 19 blown saves, converting save opportunities at only a 74% clip. However, the Sox showed their championship mettle with a very creditable 8-11 record in those games with a blown save.

Last edited 24 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
24 days ago

With a day left to change my mind I’m going to cast a ballot for the primary list, with comments. My ballot will be: Lyons, Rolen, Minoso Since I think it’s obvious that Pujols will be among our three picks as soon as his name appears, Last year I cited Adam Darowski’s rankings of the holdover players according to his now closed Hall of Stats (I’m adding Ashburn, who wasn’t on the primary list last year, along with CC, who will appear soon, and Albert): Pujols 215 Rolen 143 Utley 135 Tiant 128 Randolph 125 Lyons 124 (Rank: #141 all… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Not sure i understand the argument against 1940s players because they played during segregation. If the AL was segregated and the NL had all the top black players, okay,then the numbers would be skewed. But Lyons and the rest of the “greatest” generation were all playing under the same conditions. Our objective is to assess who was great in their own time, and in a greater historical context. The reasoning of “maybe Lyons would have been less effective if the hitter pool was stronger” is a mental exercize with some logical merit, but it is perhaps too speculative and revisionist… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
24 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

The argument pertains to the entire segregated era, Voomo, and some voters in the past have made it to argue against voting for players from the early 20th century too. It is simply that MLB players from 1947 on (more or less; really late ’50s on) must establish their worth against a full universe of MLB-quality players, whereas MLB players prior to that time only established their worth against the universe of white MLB-quality players. (The idea could be captured by saying that the MLB quality pool was elevated in 1947 in a way that makes the earlier era the… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
24 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

That argument can be endlessly extended, however. Nowadays, the MLB gets the best ballplayers on the entire planet. Ever more so than 20 years ago. Are we to look at players from 2005 with less reverence than those of today because the Ohtanis and Yamamotos didn’t yet have as smooth of a pipeline to The Show? I don’t have a clear opinion. I’m just more comfortable working with arguments based on what we know. Take race out of the equation for a moment, as all issues of social justice tend to gum up a logical discussion nowadays. What about playing… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
24 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Excellent points, Voomo. I think there are basically two ideas here. One is the ever-expanding universe of players and the second concerns changing conditions. The first is indeed a social justice issue, but it is not only a social justice issue. Unlike the forces prior to the influx of international players, which were basically geographical, logistical, and cultural, the force excluding Black players was racial segregation. The problem facing someone like Josh Gibson wasn’t that the pipeline wasn’t smooth; it was that there was no pipeline. That might, for some periods, have applied equally to Asian players, given immigration laws… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
24 days ago

For question 2 I’ll say Daniel Bard from 2020 to 2023 although he had a losing record in 2021.

Doug
Doug
24 days ago

Bard is correct, leading Rockie pitchers with winning records with 6 wins in 2022 and 4 wins in 2023. No Rockie pitcher with more than one start posted a winning record in either season.

Colorado used a franchise record 17 starting pitchers in 2023. The record for any club is 24, by two A’s teams more than a century apart, in 1915 (109 losses) and 2023 (112 losses).

Paul E
Paul E
24 days ago

Rolen, Simmons, Helton (if we have Walker’s inflated accomplishments, why not Helton?)
Coveleski, Williams, Abreu

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
24 days ago

For question 10 I found Rob Murphy who went from 2.74 ERA in 1989 to 6.32 ERA in 1990, a difference of 3.58.

Doug
Doug
24 days ago

Murphy is correct. Good sleuthing on that one.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
23 days ago

Part 1:Guerrero, Ortiz, Minoso
Part 2: Williams, Coveleski, Abreu

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
23 days ago

Question #3: Hoyt Wilhelm did it from 1964-1969.

Doug
Doug
21 days ago

Wilhelm is correct.

If it helps at all, Wilhelm was a teammate, with two different clubs, of the player who is the second answer for question 7.

Second clue: Wilhelm was also a teammate, also with two different clubs, of another pitcher with the same last name as the question 7 player.

Third clue: those two teammates of Wilhelm debuted in the same season, played for three of the same franchises, but were never teammates of each other.

Last edited 18 days ago by Doug
Richard Chester
Richard Chester
16 days ago
Reply to  Doug

So far I have found 1, Jack Fisher from 1961-1967. His W-L record in 1965 was 8-24 which makes you wonder if that is the greatest such discrepancy.

the greatest such discrepancy.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
23 days ago

I thought I’d add the Hall of Stats numbers for the secondary ballot players:

Abreu 111
Boyer 117
Coveleski 127
Dawson 123
Drysdale 115
Irvin 72
Jones 127
Smith 126
Sutton 112
Williams 111

I’m having trouble completing this ballot. . . . There’s still time (but not much . . .). Does anyone want to offer some comparative arguments vis a vis Smith, Jones, and Dawson? (I have a real fondness for Boyer, but I’m not sure I can justify that vote.)

Paul E
Paul E
22 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob, As far as I can tell, Reggie Smith got just as much done/contribited as much as Jones and Dawson in significantly fewer opportunites/games/plate appearances. I would rank them: 1) Smith 64.5 WAR 2) Dawson 64.9 WAR 3) Jones 59.4 WAR 1) Smith 6.67 RC/27/AIR 2) Dawson 5.51 3) Jones 5.09 1) Smith 311 Rbat 2) Dawson 234 3) Jones 119 1) Smith .389 rOBA 2) Dawson .368 3) Jones .363 1) Smith 138 Rbat+ 2) dawson 121 3) Jones 112 …and in neutralized slash: Smith .291 / .371 / .496 Andre .281 / .325 / .486 Jones .244 /… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
22 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Bob,
Just a BTW, per the Pythagorean Theorem of William James (the baseball guy – not the philosopher and as previously explained), the Smiths beat the Dawsons with neutral pitching and fielding 96-66 in 162 head-to-head games. The other Bill James may have had the greatest comment on procrastination, anxiety and bureaucracy of all-time: “Nothing is so fatiguing as the eternal hanging on of an uncompleted task”. 🙁

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
22 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Well, I asked for it and got it, Paul. I need to pay attention. While my appreciation of fielding excellence is not prurient, I do place a great deal of weight on it. This is why I prefer WAR to measures that don’t factor in fielding (or fielding support for pitchers). According to WAR, Smith prevails, and by WAR/162 Smith prevails by even more (5.3 vs. 4.6 for Andruw — that’s a big margin — with Dawson at 4.0). Andruw’s case really doesn’t rely on glovework: he was great, and I accept the dWAR rating, but he has to overcome… Read more »

Doug
Doug
22 days ago

Don Drysdale is on the bubble (again) on the secondary ballot. He has bounced around between the two ballots for many of the rounds since he first appeared on the ballot in the class of 1936 round. In evaluating Drysdale, don’t forget about the 5.8 bWAR that he compiled. Drsydale’s 29 career homers rank 6th among players who were primarily pitchers for their careers. Included are the 14 blasts over his first 5 seasons, which are the most to start a career among the same group. How does that 5.1 bWAR stack up against other pitchers? I looked at career… Read more »

Last edited 22 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
22 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I’m not sure I understand the exercise, Doug. It sounds as though up until the threshold of career PA <750, the leaders in pWAR are all pitchers (and are not Drysdale, who I think actually had 5.8 bWAR). So the question would be what player who is not a pitcher has the highest bWAR among all players with career PAs in the 750-800 range — is that it? Having been a big Drysdale fan from his arrival in Brooklyn (my earliest radio memory is of Vin Scully saying, during a disruption on the field, that “this young pitcher can be… Read more »

Doug
Doug
22 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Thanks for that correction about Drysdale’s bWAR, which is 5.8 as you said. Good thought about cWPA. For the four World Series that Koufax and Drysdale both pitched in, it was basically a wash for three of them, but a huge difference in 1965 (highlighted below) when Koufax pitched to a 0.38 ERA in three starts. including shutouts in games 5 and 7, while Drysdale was 1-1 in two starts with a 3.86 ERA. Here are their cWPA for the World Series of 1959, 1963, 1965 and 1966. Drysdale___9.7%, 15.2%, -8.4%, -8.2% Koufax_____7.5%, 12.1%, 70.5%, -7.0% What is more telling… Read more »

Last edited 21 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
21 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Well, on your question, the name that pops into my mind after you description is Austin McHenry. But I have no way of checking. (I assume you’re using Stathead tables . . .?)

Doug
Doug
21 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Not McHenry.

Our man started out as a Phillie, but like his teammate Fergie Jenkins, is remembered most for his time with the Cubs.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Can’t find him. I give up. Have mercy!

Doug
Doug
18 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Our mystery man is Adolfo Phillips, traded with Fergie Jenkins from the Phillies to the Cubs in 1966.

Here’s the list.

Last edited 18 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I see. I misread your description: “The latter, in fact, was what happened as the player in question finished his career with less than 1/3 of his projected career WAR at age 26.” I read it as ” . . . finished his career . . . at age 26.” If I’d read more carefully I probably wouldn’t have realized you meant Phillips (I’m not good at these puzzles), but I wouldn’t have been certain that there was no one fitting the description. I remember Phillips, but did not recall the disappointing early end to his career. Another tale of… Read more »

Doug
Doug
18 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Sorry if that was confusing. Phillips’ 11.8 career WAR after his age 26 season, after season totals of 3.6, 6.0 and 2.3, produced a career projection of 41 WAR by Bill James’ “Favorite Toy” method. Instead, Phillips ended up at 13.7 WAR.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
21 days ago
Reply to  Doug

On that ’65 Series, the reason Koufax was on 2 days rest in the first place was because he had declined to pitch Game 1 because it fell on Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement. (Hank Greenberg had done something similar in the 1930s.) Drysdale got bombed. Koufax pitched Game 2 but fell behind 1-2 in the sixth (one run unearned, but the sixth inning had gone badly for him, with three hits in a row–the only runs Koufax allowed in his three starts), and he was pulled for a pinch hitter in the seventh. The pinch hitter was… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
21 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

On 9/10/34 the Tigers were currently in first place battling the Yankees for the pennant. That day was the Jewish New Year and the Tigers had a scheduled game with the Red Sox. Hank Greenberg, who was religious, was torn over whether or not to play. He consulted with a Detroit rabbi and the ruling was that because it was a joyous Holiday he could play. He did and ended up with the 2 HRs for a 2-1 victory. The headline of the Detroit Free Press on the following day was “Happy New Year Hank” in Yiddish.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
21 days ago

The Detroit Free Press also published this, Richard, which I expect you know: Came Yom Kippur By Edgar Guest The Irish didn’t like it when they heard of Greenberg’s fame, For they thought a good first baseman should possess an Irish name; And the Murphys and Mulrooneys said they never dreamed they’d see A Jewish boy from Bronxville out where Casey used to be. In the early days of April not a Dugan tipped his hat Or prayed to see a “double” when Hank Greenberg came to bat. In July the Irish wondered where he’d ever learned to play. “He… Read more »

Doug
Doug
21 days ago

My vote.
Main: Minoso, Santana, Tiant
Secondary: Coveleski, Smith, Williams

I’ve extended the deadline to see if we can attract a few more voters.

Right now, it appears we have a tie on the main ballot between Guerrero, Helton and Minoso. Also a tie on the secondary between Coveleski and Williams.

If I’ve missed your vote (I’m not seeing your Main ballot vote, Bob Eno), please let me know,

Last edited 21 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
21 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I thought I was making my vote extra prominent by surrounding it with 500 other words, Doug.

Lyons, Rolen, Minoso

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
21 days ago

Main: Minoso, Lyons, Santana.
Secondary: Coveleski, Irvin, Boyer.

no statistician but
no statistician but
20 days ago

This is a belated response to Paul E From four days ago concerning Walker and Helton as COG candidates: In 4795 PAs playing for Colorado, Walker put up 48.3 WAR with an OPS+ of 147. In 9453 PAs for the same team Helton manages 61.8 WAR with an OPS+ of 133. Playing roughly six years for Montreal and St. Louis early and late in his career, Walker amassed an additional 24.4 WAR in 3235 PAs, a rate that betters Helton’s career rate, with an OPS+ of right around Helton’s 133 for Colorado. The downside to Walker was that he missed… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
20 days ago

I’d say 3/4, nsb. Their WAR/162 are 5.9 and 4.5 respectively. I had to go back and find the comment Paul made, which referred to the inflated accomplishments of these two. The traditional stats are certainly inflated: no question. But contextualized measures like WAR and OPS+ let us see that their excellence was exaggerated but not hallucinated by Coors. It’s easy to dismiss these guys rather than adjust and see that, big-picture, both are legitimate CoG players, with Walker at just about median CoG and Helton in the bottom quartile in career value. If Walker were a candidate on this… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
20 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

I seem to remember arguing for Walker every week for months. The ballot was stacked back then.

Doug
Doug
19 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Main argument for Simmons is his long run of consistent production, with twelve 3 WAR seasons, same as Rodriguez, and only one less than Fisk and Bench. For brevity, I’ll confine my analysis to those four players, on the premise that if Simmons can hang with the other three, he’s probably got a pretty good CoG case. Simmons posted those 12 seasons in a span of 13 years, the miss coming in the strike season of 1981. Rodriguez also had his 12 seasons in a span of 13 years, just missing in 2005 with 2.8 WAR. Bench’s 13 seasons were… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Fair argument, Doug. Thanks! I think you make Simmons’ best case and you don’t press it too far. Your case depends on selecting two criteria: making 3.0 WAR a significant cutoff point for “peak-season” status and using the number of seasons that’s optimal for Simmons (13) as the standard to apply to Pudge and Fisk. If we use the JAWS 7-year peak, we get Pudge at 39.8 (3rd among catchers), Fisk at 37.5 (4th), Simmons at 34.8 (11th). If we look at the height of each peak, we see Pudge with four straight 6+ seasons (25.5 total). Fisk has the… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
19 days ago
Reply to  Doug

WAR/YEAR

Simmons 3.3

Schang 4.2
Rodriguez 4.4
Hartnett 4.5
Berra 4.5
Carter 5.0
Dickey 5.1
Cochrane 5.4
Bench 5.6

As soon as Wally gets in the COG, I’ll think about Ted.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago
Reply to  Doug

One aspect of Doug’s argument that I neglected to address was this: “Do we penalize Simmons for using up 4 years worth of PA in his decline phase and contributing less than nothing? Or, do we give him a pass on his decline phase because it’s not his fault that teams were willing to pay him to play as he did?” This is a really difficult question that we encounter repeatedly. For example, Pujols is going into the Circle easily, as he should, but although he’s a 100 WAR player, I feel he deeply undercut his value profile by drawing… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
19 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Where did Pujols undercut his value?
In the minds of strangers typing about him on the internet?
He made 28 million dollars a year for playing baseball after growing up using a milk carton as a glove. Pretty good story.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

It’s a fine story, Voomo, but I don’t think you’re speaking of baseball value.

Paul E
Paul E
19 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob, ….or, how about Miguel Cabrera and that contract? But, Pujols is no worse than the 3rd best 1B of all-time, right? As far as judging athletes, how about we decide everything based on their primes? Like, are we going to rate Berbick above Ali? Marciano above Joe Louis? Of course not. Should we hold it against a major leaguer who takes a 10-year deal at 32 years of age because some owner is desperate to win? Everyone (except GM’s and owners) knows that it’s either a miracle to produce past age 38 in MLB or steroids. Just a BTW,… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

I think the ground is shifting here. As I said, we can’t expect everyone to be McNally. Contracts are business relationship: Albert made a great deal and the Angels didn’t. He made ~$175M over the years he was not producing. Good for him (and from what I recall, good for the charities he established)! How does that change our assessment of his baseball record? I don’t think it should. In previous eras, an aging star who fell off like Albert would have been released. The Angels couldn’t afford to do that given the sunk costs, so we have someone who… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
18 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
“But I’d like to know more about how you found the close normalized slash lines for the two.”

1) Go to any player page on Baseball Reference
2) Hover over “Finders & Advanced Stats”
3) On the far left under “Batting”, click “Advanced Stats”
4) Scroll all the way down to “Neutralized Batting”

A world of objectivity awaits……

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Thanks, Paul. I had not discovered this. I see it now and I’ll read up on its features.

Paul E
Paul E
19 days ago

NSB, No the downside to Larry is a .280/.378/.503 slash line away from Colorado that was exceeded by roughly 20 players that accumulated at least 3000 career plate appearances and played from 1985-2010. Larry “neutralized” to a 4.25R environment on Baseball Reference slashes .289/.373/.522 creating 105 runs/162G. This is not ridiculously superior to Helton’s .287/.381/.488 that creates 103R/162. FWIW, Helton played more games in the “Humidor Era” at Colorado than Walker as well. Heavens to Chuck Klein, Walker slashed .380/.460/.709 in 2531 PA’s at Colorado with a .385 BABIP. I don’t think even Ted Williams at Fenway or Musial at… Read more »

Doug
Doug
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

To Paul’s point, I recall discussion at HHS, maybe 10 or more years ago, that Coors was so unique, especially pre-humidor, that the normalization methods for WAR etc. may not work quite as well in the case of Coors as with other ballparks. The suspicion was that these normalization methods still left Coors values slightly inflated relative to other ballparks. I think the discussion was along the lines of Andy (when he was working for B-R) relaying this information to us and advising that Sean Forman was working on a tweak to the normalization methods to bring Coors more into… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago
Reply to  Doug

A note about Chuck Klein. I used to believe that Klein was just a Baker Bowl aberration in a high-hitting era, which is what Paul implies. But when you peel off the park effect, his first six years, coming up and starring with the Phillies, were truly terrific: like a six-year long pre-War Pete Reiser. In those six seasons, Klein piled up park-normalized 34.3 WAR, or 6.8/162G with 160 OPS+. The problem with Klein isn’t that the Baker Bowl made a non-star shine like a star, it’s that after a good start as a Cubbie in Wrigley, he tore a… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
18 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

An interesting trivia fact concerning Klein. His was only the second four home run game post-1900, after Gehrig’s. It happened not at the Baker Bowl, nor did it happen pre-injury, but in July of 1936 at cavernous Forbes Field in Pittsburgh. The Pirate hurlers allowed only 19 other HRs at home that year.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago

Very cool find, nsb! I see the last homer was a tenth-inning tie-breaker, and that he had no other multi-HR games in ’36.

Paul E
Paul E
18 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
Throughout his career in the NL, Klein absolutely raked at Baker Bowl. To the tune of over 13 runs per 27 outs made. And he is not much above average on his splits elsewhere in the NL.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Well, I’m not sure what to make of that, Paul. Once you’ve normalized Klein’s stats according to all the parks he played in, home and away (which is part of the WAR calculation), the fact that the Baker Bowl was his home park is no longer a factor. And the fact that the Baker Bowl was a high-run environment doesn’t mean that players are penalized for hitting better than other players in that environment. When I was a kid, one of the things I knew about Ebbets Field was that Joe Adcock crushed it when he played there. The park… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
Why don’t we compare apples-to-apples and use the approximate same number of games for each player? Here’s Jackson from age 23-34; 1969-1980:
N-OPS…..N-RC/162….WAR/162 d/WAR/162 N-PA……N-Games
.931…………123……………6.1 ………..-0.5…………7,398……..1,745
Compared to the Hoosier Hammer’s entire career:
.862…………107……………4.35……….-1.1………….7,270……..1,842

The above shows that Jackson created 15% more runs per 162 games as well as 40% more WAR. This is probably why Autry overpaid for Jackson as he entered his decline phase…

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
17 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Here’s a reason, Paul: Why don’t we compare apples-to-apples and use the approximate same number of games for each player? Here’s Jackson from age 29-41; 1975-1987 (1746G), with Klein below (1753G): N-OPS…….N-RC/162…..dWAR/162…..WAR/162 .848……………100…………..-1.4…………….3.0 .862……………107…………..-1.1…………….4.3 The answer to “Why not?” is that the method stacks the numbers by building them on an unlevel field: Jackson’s latter years, eliminating his strongest and including his weakest vs. all of Klein’s career. The answer to your question is that the method stacks the numbers by building them on an unlevel field: Jackson’s prime years, eliminating his weakest and including his strongest. Why would anyone… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob, My point is that we still evaluate players based on their primes. Like, no one cares if Willie Mays stunk with the Mets or Hank Aaron did a favor and went back to Milwaukee with the Brewers and was mediocre? No one here or elsewhere mentions how Clemente was overmatched (no power/no walks) and hit like a middle infielder those first five years of his career (92 OPS+). Should we compare the mediocre years of each player and use that as a method to decide who is the greater player? The above numbers I presented, I believe, show why… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
17 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Of course Jackson is superior to Klein. But it’s not based on a comparison of primes and it’s certainly not based on a comparison of the prime of one player to the prime + decline of another. My interest was in illustrating that the numbers you were recommending as “objective” suggest that equivalence. Mays and Aaron had brief declines. Mays had 20 strong seasons before a decline of ~150G. Aaron had 21 strong seasons before his 22G with the Brewers. Clemente took years to come into his own but bought that time by his outstanding fielding (the last three of… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob, I’ve got Simmons finishing out 502 games (1984-’88) with a TOTAL of -2.3 WAR for those years ages 34-38 (-0.75/162G). On the decline I’m referring to ‘consecutive seasons’. As far as Jackson above, those years from 1969 thru 1980 were consecutive. My thought was that Jackson contributed more in a similar amount of games than Klein ever played, plain and simple. If you want to say that Klein’s best five consecutive years (1929 – ’33) are the standard, I’m fine with that. Klein certainly impressed whomever was doing the MVP voting as he finished 11th, 4th, 2nd, 1st, and… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
17 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Yeah, I made a mistake by writing WAR/162, rather than WAR. Sorry. I picked more broadly because you’d had Clemente at the start and Mays/Aaron at the end, and Simmons’ peak had an interruption in ’81. Again, I wasn’t arguing for an equivalence between Klein and Jackson at all. I was pointing out that the stats you chose implied one. It seems problematic to rely on them. (And, again, my original point about Klein was only that his initial six seasons were actually great and not just a mirage.) In the other case we were discussing, Pujols, the dead-end stretch… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
18 days ago

Coors, of cooorse, and the fabulous Baker Bowl are the outliers for positive batting outcomes, but no one seems to care much about another park that goes pretty far in the same direction, if home/road batting averages are a legitimate measure. Yes, Klein batted .067 better at home than away, and Walker .070, including a fair number of games played on other teams, but here’s a list of players who don’t fall amazingly short of their marks, all for one franchise, over the course of about eighty years: Ted Williams–.033 Bobby Doerr–.055 D. DiMaggio–.050 Yaz————-.042 Jim Rice——.043 W. Boggs—–.052 Big… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
18 days ago

NSB, Per Baseball Reference, I believe Larry did actually choose Colorado: November 14, 1984: Signed by the Montreal Expos as an amateur free agent. October 24, 1994: Granted Free Agency. April 8, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Colorado Rockies. Interestingly enough, he probably would have gladly signed with a better Phillies club (1993 NL pennant winners) except Philadelphia made the mistake of thinking Gregg Jeffries was the better ballplayer and gave him 4/yrs/$20M on a discount in December 1994. I don’t recall if Walker’s reps were asking for a boatload more but he got 5 yrs/$25M from Colorado but not until April 8,… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
18 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

From what you say, presumably you’re aware that Walker signed for the money, not Coors Field, which had its first opening day later that month of April 1995. Of course, he may have been prescient, or gone to a fortune teller to locate the easiest park to hit in, but “Follow the Money” is what I’m seeing, in an un-prescient way, as his reason for picking the Rockies.

Paul E
Paul E
18 days ago

No fortune teller needed…..more runs were scored at Mile High in 1994 than any other NL park. Roughly 90 more…. in a strike-shortened season of ~114 games. But, being Canadian, maybe he preferred Colorado with that whole Rocky Mountain thing. It certainly played in his favor in the end.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago

Here’s pretty inconclusive barrage of stats. I’ve wondered whether they were worth posting, but perhaps others can make more of them than I. Paul pointed me towards the Neutralized Batting stats available on B-R and I thought as a way of getting a feel for them I’d pick a few simple numbers to apply to the players on our ballots. I chose two rate statistics that reflect batting performance in a park-neutralized setting: Neutralized OPS (N-OPS) and Neutralized Runs Created per 162 Games (N-RC/162. In order to have some balancing sense of defensive contributions I lined them up with dWAR/162.… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
I guess Allen and Reggie Smith are the superior of the guys not in the Circle. Here’s some neutralized numbers for Allen versus a couple of “stars’ of an earlier era with somewhat similar career PA’s and games played:
………Games………PA’s………BA……..OBA……..SLG…….RC/162
Allen…1754……….7476……..302……..390………552……….129
Joe D..1815……….7813……..309……..382………551……….130
Mize….1977………7627………305……..389………549……….116****

**** if we use ~690 PA’s in lieu of 162 games, Mize creates 129 runs (lots of pinch-hitting and platooning with NYY at end of career).
As far as oWAR:
Allen 6.5/162g
Joe D 6.9/162g
Mize 6.45/690 PA

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
17 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

I’m not sure this tells us anything new about Allen, Paul. It certainly doesn’t tell the full story. These guys played in the field and just doubling up on RC/162 and oWAR/162 doesn’t seem to brighten the light. Allen was a fielding liability (-1.5/162) while DiMaggio was added value as a fielder (0.3/162). As you know, there’s a school of thought that sees fielding as important. Joe D’s WPA/162 vs. Allen’s is 7.4 vs. 5.4. They are not close when compared in the round. (It would interesting to reexamine Mize but he’s such a different kind of player I don’t… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob, If this “Circle of Greats” exercise is about 5-tool players and 5-tool players only, I think we may have exhausted all entries. Rolen was a great fielder and well above average hitter before injuries (back while sliding, shoulder running into Heep Sop Chou (sic) in the 1st base line and another shoulder injury while fielding in the 3b line and getting run over) limited him. There aren’t too many ML’ers with Rolen’s profile of oWAR, dWAR, and overall WAR (Brooks, Ozzie, ?). But, he didn’t remain a very good hitter after the injuries. We”ve got Ichiro ‘inducted’ and he… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
17 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

A five-tool threshold is not my point at all. My point is that everything counts and we have to weigh the balances. The Allen/Smith contrast is a really good illustration. I think it’s completely non-obvious which one should have priority. They represent two different ways of providing comparable value. Allen’s very high peaks made him a headline player (in the positive direction) and that’s a component of the narrative context that would probably be decisive for me, but only advanced stats reveal how close this comparison is, and that’s what makes them interesting. If William James preferred Killebrew I think… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
16 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
Killebrew is the better hitter and that’s about the extent of his superiority by most of the metrics. I imagine that was the source of his opinion. Regarding Allen and Smith, the former is an all-time great hitter, the latter is a good all-around player. Allen’s biggest problem is he missed 293 games in his prime from 1966-1974. During that period he amassed 6.0WAR/162. If he plays in 240 of those missed games, He’s at about 70 WAR for his career. Kind of a series of different injuries/suspensions but unlike Koufax not career ending at any point.

Voomo
Voomo
16 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

I try to consider the ultimate purpose of players accumulating these wonderful numbers – they are playing for a team that is trying to win games. If we get into a spiritual debate about the flawed banger vs the 5-tooler, I usually try to imagine an entire offense of that player. Which team would win more often, a field of 8 Killebrews or 8 Carews? That is perhaps unfair, as, because it is a team effort, on a well-balanced team a player can contribute in his unique role (Im looking at you, Willie Randolph, hitting that grounder to the right… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
16 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
Sorry, just noticed the “WILLIAM James” reference. Nice ! 🙂

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
17 days ago

This round I voted for Lyons, Rolen, and Minoso, saying I was going to think further about Minoso. He is on the bubble and Voomo made a plea for him, backed by some stats from Doug. I stuck with that decision over the original vote-change deadline, but with Doug’s extension there’s a chance to think further, and the exchanges with Paul this round have brought Dick Allen’s claims back into focus. Because Allen’s guaranteed to be on the ballot for years, Minnie has a strategic advantage, but I wanted to look more closely at his case. Minoso’s basic numbers do… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
16 days ago

Well–here it is. I’ve refrained from making this comment for a long time, but this year’s impasse (or the lack of interest in voting or participating in the discussions) makes it seem like the moment has come. There’s a basic flaw in the Circle of Greats rules. They apparently insist on electing the same number of new members per year as the Hall of Fame. These strictures back voters into a corner. As much as I venerate Richie Ashburn as a wonderful player of an unusual type for his era, I don’t think he belongs in the COG. I have… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
16 days ago

nsb, I think this is a good issue to raise, and it dovetails with the issue you mention in passing at the outset of how low participation has fallen. I’ve thought about raising these questions, but several factors have kept me from doing so. The first is really simple: The formula that our late friend birtelcom (Bruce Regal) developed has worked extremely well for many years, and it’s unclear that we can improvise an improvement. The other questions relate to what I think are analyses of why we’ve encountered this problem — every time I’ve thought about saying that we… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
16 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob “I’ll just use total bWAR (position players only) to illustrate, stipulating that this is not the basis on which we should make actual decisions.” Funny thing about that WAR fellah, I have to believe that even the ‘astute’ baseball fan had no idea just how good Grich was without WAR. But with WAR’s influence, Grich was a slam dunk for the COG. But, why not Randolph? He took a ton of walks but lacked power? I dunno…. By the same token, let’s do our darnedest, Bobaloo, not to turn this into the Hall of WAR. Perhaps fewer entries like… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
16 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Scylla and Charybdis, Paul: I didn’t mean we shouldn’t use WAR (I was using it), I meant we shouldn’t use only WAR. I was trying to steer clear of nsb’s objection and sailed into yours instead. Why isn’t Randolph a slam dunk when Grich is? Because Grich is well beyond Randolph in WAR (71.1 vs. 65.9) and his WAR/162G rate is 15% higher: 5.7 vs. 4.9. They’re in different baskets despite a general similarity of cases. (Grich wasn’t quite slam dunk, but he certainly belongs in the Circle.) The problem we’re encountering is well illustrated by Grich vs. Randolph. Grich’s… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
16 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob and Paul: Who were the most controversial candidates back when we’d have upwards of 50 voters? And what were the bones of contention? Let’s take Killebrew and Wilhelm. Killebrew clubbed HRs and clogged the base paths, powered his teams and only stopped being an experiment in the field after he was planted at first base where his immobility could do the least harm(on). Wlihelm’s career was long and irregular with brilliant and prosaic seasons, one brilliant as a starter. But his knuckler gave catchers as well as batters fits and allowed runners to advance on wild pitches and passed… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
16 days ago

I agree this is a major issue, nsb, but I’m not sure there’s any way to resolve it. Your original argument was based on the quality of the pool and the vote requirement set by birtelcom’s rules. We can tweak the rules, but we can’t mandate participation or link is to the volume of discussion. (I’ve been concerned for a long time about posters appearing just to drop off a vote, without indicating their thinking or any engagement with others’.) I just checked the voting and there have only been 8 participants. To my surprise, somehow Minoso has what might… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
16 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

. . . Something went wrong in that first paragraph: “link is to the volume of discussion” is deeply poetic but not cogent. The point was about linking voting to engagement in or with discussion. Can’t do it.

Paul E
Paul E
15 days ago

NSB, I can’t disagree with anything you’ve hypothisized. And, if Bob is correct that there is some sort of flattening of the WAR credentials, all these guys will start to appear indistinguishable from each other. Which, you have stated above in your comment concerning Ashburn. Further, I believe the field has been winnowed to such an extent that these guys are so similar in value that even a 50-person discourse might not facilitate answers or even nudge a voter in a direction as to whom might be the best candidate(s). We’ve come a long way from birth year 1931 (Mays,… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
15 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Paul, If I’m correct — and I don’t know that I am — I don’t think we should view candidates as any less worthy of the Circle. I’ve said many times that I think today’s players are, in absolute terms, the most highly skilled ever. My speculation is just that as players get better there remains less room for the best to outperform replacement level. They’d still be the best, but it would be harder to identify them in a crowd of almost equally excellent players. So I’d disagree with the second sentence below from nsb: “The fact, is, these… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
15 days ago

So in light of the back and forth among Paul, nsb, and me, I’m going to make a vote change after all and suggest an approach to moving forward. Here’s the voting situation now, with 8 people voting (and, given that this is already an extended vote and no votes have been added in five days, I think 8 votes is all there will be): 5 Minoso 3 Guerrero, Helton, Lyons, Rolen, Santana 1 Ortiz, Randolph, Simmons, Tiant 0 Allen, Ashburn, Sheffield, Utley (plus Webb) My change is to withdraw my vote for Minnie, who is currently leading with 5… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
15 days ago

On the theme of possible WAR compression, I want to note some data points taken from our CoG list, position players only. If you look at the superstar group of 100+ WAR players there are some suggestive results. There are 20 100+ WAR Circle members. There seems to be a useful dividing line if you make a cut at 120 WAR, with 11 members above and 9 members below. Let’s ask this: Of the top 11 players, how many debuted in MLB during which decades? Here are the results, by initial decade years: 1890 …1 (Wagner) 1900 …3 (Speaker, Collins… Read more »

Doug
Doug
12 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Interesting thoughts, Bob. The preponderance of the very best players debuting 70+ years ago indicates that it was easier then for such players to be much, much better than all others. Why? In a less populous and less affluent society (than today’s) with less leisure time and much less access to advanced training opportunities, those with the greatest natural ability could dominate, as others had only limited ability (compared to today) to develop their natural abilities. Also, for athletes who wanted to have a professional career, baseball was really the only option until the mid-20th century, so there was much… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
12 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, There’s no question that your two main points are valid (a lower percent of boys and young men participated so there were fewer top talents and they stood out more; a higher percent of top talents went to baseball vs. other sports a century ago). However, there are some countervailing factors. The talent pool is enormously broader because of the end of segregation, the internationalization of the pool (especially from Latin America), and the tripling of the US population. (That population tripling alone seems to me to roughly match the growth of the numbers of players on MLB rosters… Read more »

Doug
Doug
12 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Absolutely, the floor is raised. And that also shrinks the gap between the best and the rest. Overall, there’s likely much greater uniformity in talent level in the game today than 70+ years ago.

My point about lowering the ceiling was in relation to the second tier of players; they will be closer to the level of the best players than was the case previously. In terms of absolute levels, I have to believe the entire level of competition has been raised for all the reasons you mentioned, despite the drain of better athletes to other sports.

bells
bells
12 days ago

Well! It’s been a minute since I contributed a post on here. Truth be told, I tried to visit this site around this time last year to participate in the CoG process, but I kept getting an error message when trying to load the site, no matter which browser I used. I sadly surmised that the site was no longer active. However, in the late summer I typed it in again and it popped up! I’ve found since then that for some reason I intermittently get error messages, and sometimes get those messages on one browser but not another. Not… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
12 days ago

With bells’ vote (hi bells!) and my vote change the other day this is where I see the totals as we approach the deadline tonight:

4 Minoso, Rolen
3 Guerrero, Helton, Lyons, Santana
2 Randolph, Tiant
1 Allen, Ortiz, Randolph, Simmons
0 Ashburn, Sheffield, Utley (plus Webb)

Ashburn and Utley are set to move to the Secondary Ballot if this result holds. I think that’s a little odd for a strong candidate like Utley, but he can form a 64.5 WAR team there with Reggie Smith. Coveleski has a two-vote lead on that ballot at the moment.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
11 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

I see I double-counted Randolph in that last post. Doug’s updated tally confirms he received 2 votes (not 1). It appears we’re headed for a run-off.