2019 Award Elections – RoY and MoY

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Hello, everyone! It’s the main event: Manager and Rookie of the Year! Everyone’s FAVORITE! Seriously, interesting choices abound on the four ballots we’ll be considering. More after the jump.

This was actually a really great year for rookies! There weren’t necessarily Acuna–Soto level players like last year, but there was such a huge number of second-tier rookies that I think, to save space, I’m just going to list their name, team, games played, batting slash, and one other little fact (for the pitchers, it’ll be innings, ERA/FIP, strikeouts, and one other little fact). Or, something like that. Anyway, here are some of the candidates, as Doug and I see them (unless noted otherwise, references below to “rookie seasons” are for 250 PA or 100 IP minimums).

AL Rookie

Yordan Alvarez, HOU – 87 G, .313/.412/.655, 27 HR (second rookie, after Trevor Story, with 25 HR in fewer than 100 games)
Bo Bichette, TOR – 46 G, .311/.358/.571, 144 OPS+ (better than Dad‘s best season)
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR – 123 G, .272/.339/.433, .089 walk rate (better than Dad‘s career mark)
Cavan Biggio, TOR – 100 G, .234/.364/.429, 0 GDP (like Dad in ’97) and 0 CS (first 0-0 season of 300+ PA)
Luis Arraez, MIN – 92 G, .334/.399/.439, .334 BA (led MLB rookies)
Eloy Jimenez, CHW – 122 G, .267/.315/.513, 31 HR (led AL rookies)
Brandon Lowe, TBR – 82 G, .270/.336/.514, .850 OPS (AL rookie record for second basemen) and 124 OPS+ (best by AL rookie second baseman since Del Pratt in 1912)
John Means, BAL – 155.0 IP, 3.60/4.41, 121, winning record (12-11) for the Orioles
Spencer Turnbull, DET – 148.1 IP, 4.61/3.99, 146, 0.8 HR/9 (3rd in AL, min. 140 IP)
Zach Plesac, CLE – 115.2 IP, 3.81/4.94, 88, 3.1 BB/9 (better than Uncle‘s career mark)
If you’re wondering about Mike Tauchman, NYY, 87 G, .277/.361/.504, 1.4 dWAR (most by any Yankee slugging .500 in fewer than 100 games), he is not eligible to receive your vote as MLB has determined that he was no longer a rookie in 2019 (despite only 69 career PA before this season).

NL Rookie

Mike Soroka, ATL – 174.2 IP, 2.68/3.45, 142, 0.7 HR/9 (led NL)
Sandy Alcantara, MIA – 197.1 IP, 3.88/4.55, 151, 2 SHO (led MLB)
Dakota Hudson, STL – 174.2 IP, 3.35/4.93, 136, 16 wins (3rd in NL, led MLB rookies)
Chris Paddack, SDP – 140.2 IP, 3.33/3.95, 153, 2.0 BB/9 (led MLB rookies)
Tommy Edman, STL – 92 G, .304/.350/.500, 15 SB (most by Cardinal rookie slugging .500)
Pete Alonso, NYM – 161 G, .260/.358/.583, 53 HR (rookie and franchise record, and MLB-leading total)
Keston Hiura, MIL – 84 G, .303/.368/.570, .938 OPS (MLB rookie record for second basemen) and 138 OPS+ (best by rookie second baseman since Jim Viox in 1913)
Fernando Tatis Jr., SDP – 84 G, .317/.379/.590, 152 OPS+ (better than Dad‘s best season)
Victor Robles, WSN – 155 G, .255/.326/.419, 28 SB (led MLB rookies)
Bryan Reynolds, PIT – 134 G, .314/.377/.503, 37 2B (most by NL rookie outfielder since Warren Cromartie in 1977)
Mike Yastrzemski, SFG – 107 G, .272/.334/.518, 21 HR (SLG better than Grandpa‘s at age 28)
Kevin Newman, PIT – 130 G, .308/.353/.446, first rookie Pirate shortstop since Arky Vaughan (1932) with qualified .300 BA
Christian Walker, ARI – 152 G, .259/.348/.476, 29 HR/67 BB, with Pete Alonso, became 19th and 20th rookies with 25 HR and 65 BB; since RoY Award was introduced in 1947, 13 of 16 such rookies (not incl. 2019) finished in top 3 in RoY vote, incl. 9 RoY winners
As with Tauchman, Giovanny Gallegos (STL – 74.0, 2.31/3.05, 93, 0.811 WHIP) is not considered a rookie by MLB, despite only 31.1 IP before 2019.

AL Manager

Aaron Boone – More injuries than anyone & no starting pitching… yet still won 103 games.
Rocco Baldelli – First-year manager gets breakthrough seasons from most of the Twins young’ns for just the second 100-win team in Twins/Senators history
Kevin Cash – In year of the home run, skippered 96 win season for team with only one 25 HR man (but an AL-leading 15 position players with 50 games)
Terry Francona – Nearly made playoffs despite below-expectation performances by most players
AJ Hinch – Third-straight 100+ win season, league-high 107 W’s
Bob Melvin – On 6/16, his A’s were one game over .500 with only a 5.2% chance of making playoffs, but finished 56-33 for a second straight wildcard berth

NL Manager

Brian Snitker – Braves get there a year early; predicted to finish in lower half of division, but instead fashioned NL’s 2nd-best record
Dave Martinez – Harper-less Nationals go 69-36 over final 105 games to hold off Mets and Phils, and make playoffs
Torey Lovullo – D’Backs punt on season by trading Greinke, yet still win 85
Dave Roberts – 106 Wins, 4th-straight NL West crown
David Bell – I’m not saying the Reds were good… but they went 75-87, which isn’t half bad
Mickey Callaway – I didn’t see the Mets competing for the playoffs. Did you?
Craig Counsell – Third-straight winning season for third time in team history (1978-83, 1987-89 being the others). Brewers outscored opponents by 3 runs yet finished 16 games over .500 (very lucky, or perhaps it was shrewd management?)

Rules: Vote by making a comment below and numbering your choices with 1 being the MOST preferred candidate, and 3 being your LEAST preferred candidate of your three choices. Your ballots will be EXACTLY three places for each award, just as the BBWAA does. You must vote for three players and/or managers for each award. Scoring will be 5-3-1, just as the BBWAA does. You are not required to vote for all awards; only vote for the ones you would like to. You may make vote changes, if the discussion so moves you. If you change your vote, please do so in a new comment, not as a reply to your original comment (it’s a lot easier to find new comments than replies to old ones). Please don’t vote strategically; we’re trying to get the best result, not to manipulate the vote totals based on what others have done. Voting will remain open about one week. When players are tied, tiebreakers go as follows: first tiebreaker is number of ballots on which players were named; second tiebreaker is highest placement on a ballot; third tiebreaker is the first player to be named (as this usually only happens when a bunch of players are tied for last). Results will be posted when balloting closes.

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koma

5 years ago

AL Rookie

1. Jordan Alvarez
2. Bo Bichette
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

NL Rookie
1. Pete Alonso (topping last years unanimous AL RoY Judge in HR….)
2. Fernando Tatis Jr.
3. Mike Soroka

AL Manager
1. Aaron Boone
2. Rocco Baldelli
3. AJ Hinch

NL Manager
1. Dave Martinez
2. Dave Roberts
3. Brian Snitker

Doug

5 years ago

Spencer Turnbull has quite the stat line, with a 3-17 record in 30 starts, but 104 ERA+ and 2.3 WAR. His .150 W-L% is the third lowest qualified mark in any 2 WAR season. Turnbull, Alcantara and fellow rookie Merrill Kelly all recorded 30 starts and led their league in losses, a feat accomplished before this season by only 15 rookies since 1901. The 2019 season is the first with more than one such rookie, and the first time any rookie has done so since Ken Hill in 1989. Other rookie notes include: – Bo Bichette established a searchable MLB… Read more »

Voomo

5 years ago

Just a quick Trout stat….

WAR Leaders through age 27:

72.5 … Mike Trout
69.0 … Cobb
68.1 … Mantle
63.7 … Hornsby
63.6 … Alex Rod
62.6 … Foxx

59.2 … Griffey
59.1 … Ott
56.0 … Aaron
55.7 … Speaker
55.0 … Collins
54.9 … Pujols

53.7 … Mathews
53.2 … Arky
51.0 … Mays
50.9 … Frank Rob
50.5 … Rickey
50.3 … Bonds
50.3 … Ruth
49.9 … Bench

Paul E

5 years ago

Reply to Voomo

Voom,
……and here are the bumbs that make up the oWAR list thru age 27

1 Mike Trout 71.5
2 Ty Cobb 67.8
3 Mickey Mantle 66.1
4 Alex Rodriguez 61.9
5 Rogers Hornsby 60.1
6 Jimmie Foxx 59.6
7 Mel Ott 54.7
8 Eddie Mathews 53.5
9 Arky Vaughan 51.6
10 Ken Griffey Jr. 51.0
11 Hank Aaron 50.4

Author

Doug

5 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Adding in the total oWAR of their teams.

1. Mike Trout…………71.5/218.3 (32.8%)
2. Ty Cobb……………..67.8/259.5 (26.1%)
3. Mickey Mantle……66.1/259.4 (25.5%)
4. Alex Rodriguez…..61.9/264.8 (23.4%)
5. Rogers Hornsby…60.1/187.7 (32.0%)
6. Jimmie Foxx……….59.6/275.0 (21.7%)
7. Mel Ott………………54.7/236.4 (22.9%)
8. Eddie Mathews….53.5/208.5 (25.7%)
9. Arky Vaughan…….51.6/176.7 (29.2%)
10. Ken Griffey Jr……51.0/201.6 (25.3%)
11. Hank Aaron……..50.4/237.7 (21.2%)

Paul E

5 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug,
I guess it’s same to assume that the difference between Trout/Hornsby and Aaron/Foxx/Ott would be the quality of teammates? With this kind of data, we could possibly re-write and possibly eliminate the “Winner” label from the annals of baseball history 🙁

Doug

5 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Quality of teammates and nature of their debuts. Foxx had three seasons (191 PA total) and Hornsby one (61 PA), in which they made a minimal contribution to their team’s WAR total. Others similarly affected include A-Rod (two seasons, 208 PA), Ott (two seasons, 241 PA), Trout (one season, 135 PA) and Cobb (one season, 164 PA).

Paul E

5 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug,
Just noticed this above:
“Christian Walker, ARI – 152 G, .259/.348/.476, 29 HR/67 BB, with Pete Alonso, became 19th and 20th rookies with 25 HR and 65 BB; since RoY Award was introduced in 1947, 13 of 16 such rookies (not incl. 2019) finished in top 3 in RoY vote, incl. 9 RoY winners”

How about Willie Montanez never reached his Phillies’ rookie-record 30 homers nor his debuting 67 BB’s again?

Author

Doug

5 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Yep, Montanez was one of those 13, finishing 2nd in NL RoY voting in 1971. He’s one of those unusual players with more WAR in their rookie season (1.9) than in their career (1.7). Here are the 25/65 rookie club. Davis, Zauchin and Bissonette are all like Montanez, in posting their best season as rookies (will have to wait and see about Judge in that regard). The 34 year-old Easter almost had his best season as a rookie, but WAR likes his 1952 campaign a bit better (after his ML career ended, Easter hit 210 more HR in the minors,… Read more »

Paul E

5 years ago

AL MGR
Baldelli
Boone
Cash

NL MGR
Martinez
Counsell
Snitker

AL ROY
Alvarez
Guerrero
Jimenez

NL ROY
Alonso
Soroka
Tatis

Dr. Doom

5 years ago

Doug – do you know why Tauchman and Gallegos are not considered rookies by MLB? I’m confused about that. (For the inside-baseball to everyone else on the site, while I wrote this post, the absolutely brilliant Doug edited and fact-checked the whole thing, and thus caught my mistakes; I included Gallegos and Tauchman in the original draft of the post.) Anyway, here’s my vote: AL Rookie: 1. Yordan Alvarez – SCARY good with limited playing time. Is this a sign of things to come, or is this just another flash-in-the-pan rookie run like Yasiel Puig, a good player who didn’t… Read more »

Doug

5 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Here’s the definition from http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/about_mlb/rules_regulations.jsp

Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

It would seem that the “45 days on active roster” rule must have been exceeded for both Tauchman and Gallegos.

Doug

5 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

With his contract, the Padres are probably stuck with Machado, so it must have bruised the pride of the man who had “insisted” that he was now a shortstop to (a) have a raw rookie take that position from him to start the season; and (b) not be moved back to shortstop when said rookie went down for the season with another injury (Machado went .230/.331/.410 from Tatis’ injury to season’s end). By all accounts (at least, the ones I’ve read), Machado is quite temperamental, so doesn’t seem like the Padres’ best strategy for maximizing the huge investment they’ve made… Read more »

Paul E

5 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug
I’m sure the Phillies would trade Franco and Hoskins for Machado and SOME cash. Say $7-8M annually…..I dunno

Mike L

5 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug, if that’s true, it’s going to be a long and unhappy relationship, because the cost of off-loading him will be huge. What we don’t know is what promises, if any, were made to Machado during the negotiations.

Dr. Doom

5 years ago

Whoops! I never gave an end-date for this particular vote. I know there’s less enthusiasm about this particular one and we probably want to get on yo the next one. Let’s wrap it up Sunday night, 11:59:59. Thanks!

Doug

5 years ago

AL Rookie 1. Alvarez. Just WOW. 2. Means. Stats are solid everywhere you look. 3. Biggio. Saw the Jays a lot. Carries himself like a pro. His BA and K-rate are misleading; was rung up looking repeatedly because of his stubbornness in not offering at pitches just outside the zone. Will start to get those calls as he establishes himself more with umpires. Went on a tear at the end of the season when he started expanding his zone ever so slightly while still remaining disciplined at the plate. NL Rookie 1. Alonso. Consistent all season (and he played every… Read more »

Dr. Doom

5 years ago

Reply to Doug

Nice points, Doug. Particularly interesting to hear from someone who watched Biggio a lot. I looked it up – among qualifiers, Alex Bregman swung least of anyone at pitches outside the zone – 18.8%. Biggio swung at only 17.0%. So the numbers definitely back up Doug’s claim that, not only does Biggio have unusual discipline for a young player – he has great plate discipline for any player! Also, a plug to anyone following the thread: these races are FASCINATING, as we have a lot more diverging opinions than on the more straightforward NL MVP and AL Cy Young (Well,… Read more »

Author

Doug

5 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Biggio is just the 16th rookie since 1901 to post a 16% walk rate in 250 PA, and just the 10th to do so over 400+ PA. In the expansion era, those numbers are just 7 with 250 PA, and 6 with 400 PA.

Scary Tuna

5 years ago

Was hoping to analyze these races a bit more and make a few comments, but I’m just going to submit a quick ballot instead. I’m walking my daughter down the aisle tomorrow, and it will likely be Monday before I remember to check back here. I appreciated reading the comments of others the past few days, which helped me in thinking about my votes. AL ROY 1. Alvarez 2. Means 3. Arraez NL ROY 1. Soroka 2. Alonso 3. Tatis AL MOY 1. Baldelli 2. Boone 3. Cash NL MOY 1. Martinez 2. Snitker 3. Counsell One quick note, too:… Read more »

Doug

5 years ago

Reply to Scary Tuna

Scary, Thanks for the note about the Twins. I’ve corrected the post.

Congrats to your daughter. Enjoy the wedding!

Dr. Doom

5 years ago

Reply to Scary Tuna

Congrats, Dad! Exciting day!

Thanks for the ballot.

Mike L

5 years ago

Reply to Scary Tuna

Awesome, Scary. Enjoy every minute of it.

Richard Chester

5 years ago

AL Rookie

1. Alvarez
2. Arraez
3. Means

NL Rookie

1. Alonso
2. Tatis
3. Soroka

AL Manager

1. Boone
2. Baldelli
3. Hinch

NL Manager

1. Martinez
2. Roberts
3. Snitker

Josh Davis

5 years ago

AL Rookie
1. Alvarez
2. Means
3. Guerrero Jr.

NL Rookie
1. Alonso
2. Soroka
3. Tatis

AL Manager
1. Boone (100 win season after crazy amount of injuries)
2. Melvin
3. Baldelli

NL Manager
1. Counsell (would have been easy for the team to crumble after losing a player of Yelich’s caliber; instead they streaked to the playoffs. I’m giving their manager credit for that

2. Snitker (didn’t see the Braves being this good yet – perhaps that is just my underappreciation of their talent, but I think Snitker has something to do with it)

3. Roberts

Dr. Doom

5 years ago

Results! As always, I’ll put vote points first, 1st-place votes in parentheses: AL Rookie of the Year: 1. Yordan Alvarez, 35 (7) 2. John Means, 11 3. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 5 4. Cavan Biggio, 4 5. Luis Arraez, 4 6. Bo Bichette, 3 7. Eloy Jimenez, 1 Alvarez was the only player named on all seven ballots – and he was the unanimous winner. We don’t get unanimous winners in this group too often, even considering how small our electorate is. Alvarez was very impressive, and the AL had a lot of good-not-great candidates. No surprise here. Brandon Lowe finished… Read more »

Dr. Doom

5 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

BTW, thanks so much to everyone for a really good voter turnout this year! Hopefully, we’ll continue it – the two actually INTERESTING votes are still to come. Hopefully, Doug will be posting the NL Cy Young soon, and then we’ll close out with the AL MVP. Thanks, everyone, keep voting, and keep discussing!