Circle of Greats 1974 Balloting Part 1

This post is for voting and discussion in the 129th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the first of four rounds of balloting adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1974. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group of 1974-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This first group of 1974-born candidates, including those with A-C surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.

In addition to voting for COG election among players on the main ballot, there will be also be voting for elevation to the main ballot among players on the secondary ballot. For both ballots, which may be voted at the same time or in separate posts, voters must include three and only three eligible players. For the main ballot election, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats, while for the secondary ballot election, the one player appearing on the most ballots cast is elevated to the main ballot for the next COG election round. In the case of ties, a runoff election round will be held for COG election, while a tie-breaking process will be followed to determine the secondary ballot winner.

Players who fail to win either ballot but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. One additional round of eligibility is earned by any player who appears on at least 10% of the ballots cast or, for the main ballot only, any player finishing in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances. Holdover candidates on the main ballot who exhaust their eligibility will drop to the secondary ballot for the next COG election round, as will first time main ballot candidates who attract one or more votes but do not earn additional main ballot eligibility. Secondary ballot candidates who exhaust their eligibility will drop from that ballot, but will become eligible for possible reinstatement in a future Redemption round election.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Thursday, January 31st, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Tuesday, January 29th.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1974 Part 1 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1974 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1974 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:

MAIN BALLOTELIGIBILITYSECONDARY BALLOTELIGIBILITY
Kevin Brown11 roundsAndre Dawson10 rounds
Luis Tiant8 roundsTed Lyons
4 rounds
Dick Allen5 roundsRick Reuschel
4 rounds
Bill Dahlen5 roundsWillie Randoph
3 rounds
Manny Ramirez5 roundsTodd Helton
3 rounds
Graig Nettles3 rounds Andy Pettitte
this round ONLY
Bobby Wallace
3 rounds
Richie Ashburn
2 rounds
Dwight Evans
2 rounds
Ken Boyerthis round ONLY
Ted Simmons
this round ONLY
Don Sutton
this round ONLY

Everyday Players (born in 1974, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, A-C surname):
Bobby Abreu
Miguel Cairo
Orlando Cabrera
Frank Catalanotto
Jamey Carroll
Marlon Anderson
Sean Casey
Jose Cruz
Roger Cedeno
Mark Bellhorn
Emil Brown

Pitchers (born in 1974, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, A-C surname):
Chad Bradford

As is our custom with first time candidates, here is a factoid and related quiz question on each of the new players on the ballot.

  1. Bobby Abreu recorded thirteen straight seasons (1998-2010) playing 150 or more games, tied with Willie Mays (1954-66) for the longest such streak in majors history. Excepting strike-shortened campaigns, which three players have longer streaks of such seasons? (Pete Rose, Cal Ripken, Rafael Palmeiro)
  2. Miguel Cairo played in 29 post-season games, but never in the World Series. Which player has appeared in the most post-season games without playing in the World Series? (Russell Martin)
  3. Orlando Cabrera is one of three five players with 600 games at shortstop in each league. Who are the other two four? (Monte Cross, George Davis, Leo Cardenas, Royce Clayton)
  4. Frank Catalanotto topped 100 OPS+ and 15 oWAR for his career. Among such players with careers starting in 1995 or later, which retired outfielder hit fewer home runs than Catalanotto’s total of 84? (Angel Pagan)
  5. Jamey Carroll played over 250 games at 2B, SS and 3B. Who was the first expansion era player with such a career? (Tony Phillips)
  6. Chad Bradford recorded a 0.39 ERA for his post-season career. Who is the only pitcher with a lower career ERA in 20+ post-season games? (John Rocker)
  7. Marlon Anderson’s 7 home runs for the Dodgers are tied for the most by any player with fewer than 50 games for LA. Who was the first player with this achievement? (Steve Bilko)
  8. Jose Cruz’s .198 career ISO is fifth highest in a 5000 PA career with OPS+ under 105. Which player with OPS+ under 105 as a Blue Jay has the only ISO higher than Cruz’s in 2500 PA in Toronto? (Joe Carter)
  9. Sean Casey’s 197 hits in 1999 are the most by a Reds first baseman in the post-war era. Which post-war era Reds first baseman recorded a season leading the NL in hits? (Ted Kluszewski, 1955)
  10. Roger Cedeno’s age 24 season for the 1999 Mets featured a .300 BA, 60 steals and 60 walks. Which other NL player posted these totals at as young an age and, like Cedeno, did not lead his league in steals? (John McGraw, 1894-95)
  11. Mark Bellhorn‘s best season came in 2002 for the Cubs with 27 HR and an .886 OPS, but only 56 RBI. Who is the only Cub to post a higher OPS and fewer RBI in a 400 PA season? (Topsy Hartsel, 1901)
  12. Emil Brown logged 600 PA and stroked 150 hits in consecutive seasons (2005-06) aged 30-31, the oldest player to do so in his first two years in Kansas City. Who is the youngest player to post these totals in his first two seasons as a Royal? (Amos Otis)

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

229 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
5 years ago

8. This is definitely HHS favorite Joe Carter.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago

The answer to the first question must be Rose and Ripken.

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Not sure why I wrote two, but there are actually three players, those two and one more.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Lower the threshold to 146 games and Ichiro joins them at 13 seasons. I haven’t the foggiest who the third player would be.

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Lou Gehrig makes 13 seasons at 149 games, dipping that one game below 150 just once.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Rafael Palmeiro?

Doug
Doug
5 years ago

That’s it.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago

Is #4 Denard Span, or are we assuming he gets a job this summer?

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago

9. Definitely Ted Kluszewski, 1955.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

For several years I’ve been posting a table of certain stats for all the CoG candidates I regard as viable. The key figures include: Total WAR Peak 5-yr WAR Best 5 yrs for WAR WAR/G or WAR/9IP WAR/yr (with certain minimal criteria for a season to count) OPS+/ERA+ Career length, with the shortest career among the candidates (hitters & pitchers separate) the reference point at 1.0. I don’t know if anyone pays the least attention to these tables. Obviously, they present an incomplete picture because they are so reliant on WAR, an imperfect measure. But I’m posting them again, mostly… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

If you ranked the main ballot position players, 1-10, for each category and added them up, F W I W, it would look like:
27 Allen
28 Boyer
31 Ashburn
32 Manny
37 Nettles
37 Abreu
38 Wallace
42 Evans
55 Simmons

Whether or not this is relevant from a “logic” standpoint is anybody’s guess. If you asked me (and no one is asking), I’d go with oWAR and/or rBAT as some sort of tie-breaker in any discussion on the merits of any of these players. But, again, no one asked

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

An awfully odd approach, Paul. By the way, Dahlen would be at 36, but I have no idea what that means. I think rBAT or oWAR make sense for outfielders and first basemen, whose defensive contributions lie in a narrow range, and who are expected to produce most of their value at bat. For the keystone infielders and catchers, I don’t think they are a fair measure, since they are expected to produce much more value in the field. Third basemen, it seems to me, vary by era on that score. In theory, oWAR and dWAR are on the same… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Dept. of Shameless Self-Promotion Last spring, I wrote a series of posts for HHS devoted to baseball in the 1890s, which I regard as the point where the sport exits its early phase and enters its “modern” one (for reasons I explain ad nauseum in the posts). One of my goals in writing those posts was to create some interest in the era during which two of our CoG candidates played significant portions of their careers: Bill Dahlen and Bobby Wallace. My thinking was that those two players, who are the WAR leaders among current candidates, lose support because, although… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Indeed. But I’m so hopeless at your quizzes that I didn’t see it before your hint.

Joseph
Joseph
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Wallace’s stats are so unimpressive it’s hard for me to understand how he accumulated so much WAR.

I’m going to go read your Part 1 through 3 articles in hopes of understanding. But maybe you have an explanation?

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Joseph

The most relevant data would be in Part 3, Joseph, where fielding is a topic, but I don’t deal with Wallace individually. The period of Wallace’s career saw a dramatic change in fielding standards, and Wallace was a leader of that change. This was a time of very low TTO play: in baseball before Wallace’s career period fielders allowed many more batters to reach base and there was about a 7% likelihood that a chance would lead to an error (by the end of Wallace’s career that figure would be about 4%, an enormous change). Wallace was famous for realizing… Read more »

Joseph
Joseph
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Thanks for the extensive reply. Makes sense.

koma
koma
5 years ago

2: Russel Martin 57 games
3: Royce Clayton, Monte Cross, Leo Cardenas, George Davis (hmm 4 players?!?)

Main Ballot Vote: Manny Ramirez, Luis Tiant, Kevin Brown
Secondary Ballot Vote: Andy Pettitte, Todd Helton, Andre Dawson

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  koma

I hadn’t considered 19th century players, but thanks for pointing out Cross and Davis.

koma
koma
5 years ago

4: Angel Pagan hit 64 HR with an OPS+ of 102 and 18.6 oWAR

koma
koma
5 years ago

5; Tony Phillips

koma
koma
5 years ago

7: Steve Bilko in 1958

koma
koma
5 years ago

10: George Burns 1914 (was only third)
John McGraw 1894 (second) and 1895 (third)

koma
koma
5 years ago

11: Topsy Hartsel in 1901 with OPS of .886 and 54 RBI

koma
koma
5 years ago

12: George Brett in his age 22 and 23 seasons

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Kevin Seitzer at ages 25 – 26? He did appear in less games than the random RoY limits (in a cup of coffee at age 24) to the extent his second season merited a 2nd place finish in the RoY award voting

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

How about Amos Otis?

Doug
Doug
5 years ago

It is Otis. Emil Brown (who I have absolutely no recollection of) batted .200 in fewer than 500 PA over 5 seasons through age 26, then played only in the minors for 3 years (for four organizations), before landing in KC at age 30 and becoming their regular right-fielder for two seasons, Not your typical road to becoming an everyday player. Brown was effective at the plate for those seasons, but brutal in the field, turning in the second lowest season Rfield score by a Royal outfielder, ahead of only iron-gloved Danny Tartabull (Kauffman Stadium is not a forgiving ballpark… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

In looking at Otis’ career, it’s almost shocking how well he fielded in 1978 (+16 runs) compared to the rest of his career (-50 , without a season half as good as 1978). Strangely enough, he also accumulated the most rBat in that season as well with a career high OPS+ of 151.
Hit the cover off the ball in the 1980 WS and followed it up with an 0 for 12 in 1981 playoffs

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

It always felt like the Indians and Royals played each other about 50 times a year in the 00’s, so I do remember Emil Brown. He was indeed just as atrocious in the field as his Rfield would suggest.

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago

I remember Brown with the Pirates. Shows the merits of second chances…after three years in the minors (ages 27-29), at ages 30-31, he plays everyday for the Royals AAAa team in Kansas City. They managed to lose over 200 games for the years in question (2005-’06). Alas, it looks like they’re doing their level-headed worst to duplicate that type of performance

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago

My ballot is below. I’ve decided to put in a little bit of work that I haven’t done in a few years. I have always included a (peak-weighted) modified version of Baseball-Reference WAR to determine my votes (with some extra credit given for catchers, as well as the logical considerations of wartime service, racial segregation, etc.). I’ve long thought that I should include Fangraphs’ WAR in my considerations. You might think, “That only matters for pitchers,” but that’s just not true. Sure, Bobby Abreu (60.3, 59.6) looks the same by either measure. But that’s not everybody. Here are three non-pitchers… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Since I’m playing the role of 1890s-defender, I want to respond to Doom’s comment: “. . . I don’t believe they were really playing Major League Baseball. Even in the late-1890s, I think it’s unclear that the level of competition was that great.” (I originally wrote, “respond briefly,” but when the data changes, I change my mind!) To take the last part first, level of competition generally rises throughout MLB history. The CoG rules, which try to replicate the psychology of the early BBWAA voters, rather than the rules, assume that there is some significant feature to the year 1901,… Read more »

Dr, Doom
Dr, Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I mean, we’ve had this discussion before. But let’s have it again; it’s a fun one. 1. There was no “rule” about pre-1901 balloting. I (and some others) have chosen not to vote for pre-1901 players, partly because we were reliving the BBWAA. They didn’t consider those guys, because that was “a different game.” They had an expert committee. If I can vote for those players, I probably should’ve been writing in Josh Gibson and Bullet Joe Rogan for a LONG time, since A.) I’m sure that the Negro Leagues of the ’30s and ’40s were of higher quality than… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr, Doom

Doom, You make some good points: The low point of 1901 was quickly repaired and in a few years MLB did cast a broader net for talent. (But 1901 was a low point.) The syndicate baseball year of 1899 produced the absurd anomaly of the Cleveland Outcasts, and competitive balance was disrupted as a result (though no other syndicate result was extreme, and 1899 was the only year of syndicate baseball). Let me respond to your other points by number. 1. You say that the BBWAA didn’t vote for 19th century players because baseball then was “a different game.” I… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Fair enough. I want to make a couple of points. First, about the grab-bag. I don’t disagree that this is a grab-bag; I don’t disagree that it’s irrelevant. However, think about this: do top-tier leagues share these features? They do not. They simply don’t; as quality of play improves, so do these other features; it’s inevitable. The game of the first decade of the twentieth century was radically improved from the game of the last decade of the 19th in all of these regards. Second, a minor quibble: you say that I pointed to 1899, a famously rough year in… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Well, Doom, if the series last spring didn’t convince you, or at least pique your interest, I think it would be futile to try to do so here. Really, that’s pretty much all I got. But the focus of the series was on changes in the game itself, not on the ancillary features that you take to be a certain index of game quality. When you say, “Do top tier leagues share these features?” I think the answer in the 1890s is obviously, “yes,” and the answer in later decades is increasingly, “no.” But this is not a mystery: the… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I blew by this really good exchange between you and Doom when it happened a couple days ago. Something I’ve felt for a long time (and used to post about when I was here regularly) is that I believe that your characterization is roughly correct — that the quality of play has been going up over time, and that the curve is especially steep between 1947 and 1960. But I think it was also pretty steep between 1900 and 1930. I agree with Doom that 1920 might be as good a starting point as 1900. Things don’t really feel “major… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

A very thoughtful post, Michael. The point of view you’re expressing makes perfectly good sense, but I believe that the price of adopting it is to unnecessarily devalue baseball’s entire history, relegating it to a prelude to the present, which will someday in the future do the same to today’s players. Baseball differs from other professional sports in the degree to which its history is expressed through the length, detail, and integrity of its statistical record. No other sport debates the relative worth of its history of players to the degree baseball does because the early data is too sparse… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I should be clear — I really don’t mean to take the tack that we should be looking at absolute value! In that case, you’re right that we’d probably have to ignore everybody that wasn’t outerworldly from before 1960ish, and how do you even know — is Ruth comparable to Barry Bonds, or Albert Belle, or some dude that never made it out of AAA? So I still want to compare people to the era they played in, but I don’t like seeing what seem like inflated WAR totals based on the fact that replacement players were much further below… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Michael, This sounds a lot more interesting. You seem to be interested in analyzing competitive balance, and for that we’d need to assemble curves for each season, plotting the distributions of OPS+ and ERA+. Wouldn’t the notion then change from a steady improvement of skills and performance to a more rapid rise in quality among the least talented, with average talent rising in quality faster than outstanding talent? If that’s the model, wouldn’t we expect the highest career OPS+/ERA+ figures to come disproportionately from the early (or perhaps early and PED) eras? At a first glance, that does not seem… Read more »

Gary Bateman
Gary Bateman
5 years ago

Main ballot-Boyer, Ashburn, Dahlen
Secondary-Dawson, Randolph, Helton

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago

Before we get back to the dogfight over the same 10 or 15 marginally acceptable COG entries that have been on ballots for what is now literally years, I’m going to try to probe the worthiness for inclusion in this group of Bobby Abreau by comparing his record with that of someone already in the group, Dwight Evans. Both played right field, both had long careers, both hit for medium power for their eras, Evans a little more. Other similarities: Both walked a lot, Abreau early in his career while with Houston especially, Evans later. OPS+ Abreau 128, Evans 127.… Read more »

Doug
Doug
5 years ago

Well presented, nsb.

I was hedging on whether to give a vote to Abreu but, as you’ve demonstrated, he just seemed to come up a little short.

I’ve found the 65 WAR test (maybe 55 WAR for catchers) to be pretty reliable in guiding my selections. Most above that line seem to merit serious consideration as borderline candidates, most below somehow not.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago

Well-put, nsb. BTW, Abreu (0.7) and Evans (2.3) have two of the smallest differentials on the ballot between bWAR and fWAR. Only Dahlen (2.1) slides between them, with Nettles (2.3) having the same difference as Evans. Another player we’ll see this year in the balloting (Jeter, 0.2 difference); but he’s not here yet. The biggest differences belong to Tiant (11.2), Secondary Ballot candidate Ted Lyons (12.7), and Don Sutton, who is unrecognizable between the two systems at a difference of a whopping 16.7 WAR. As for HOF voting, I expect Abreu won’t do much better than Evans did. I probably… Read more »

koma
koma
5 years ago

12: Amos Otis in his 23 and 24 age seasons comming from the Mets

PS: Q6: Postseason search is very difficult on BR;-)

koma
koma
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Indeed it is easy to find John Rocker with his perfect 0.00 ERA in 20 games with the P-I Game Finder :-/

But i didn’t even think about searching for a career stat with the game finder;-)

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Of course, if you have the patience and wherewithal, you could create your own PI post-season finder.

Bruce Gilbert
Bruce Gilbert
5 years ago

This is Bruce Gilbert: my main ballot picks are Don Sutton, Ted Simmons and Dwight Evans. My Secondary threesome is Ted Lyons, Andre Dawson and Andy Pettite.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Doom has raised the issue of whether we should consult Fangraphs WAR. I have a very strong objection to fWAR for pitchers — I could explain those objections again, but I won’t — but it seems to me reasonable to consider fWAR for position players. Here is the list of the current main ballot position players, with fWAR indicated: Abreu (59.6) Allen (61.3) Ashburn (57.6) Boyer (54.7) Dahlen (77.5) Evans (65.1) Nettles (65.7) Ramirez (66.3) Simmons (64.9) Wallace (62.4) Wallace has an additional 5.8 for his pitching, but since I don’t believe fWAR is reliable for pitchers, I have not… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

So, I started to write a comment about the dramatic difference in Simmon’s fWAR v. bWAR and what it might mean — perhaps fWAR takes framing into account (no), or some other stat that makes a big difference. I went over to fangraphs (which I don’t visit as often as b-r) to check on what exactly goes into their catcher WAR, and then look at Simmon’s chart to make sense of the differences, and what I found was that it was much simpler — looks like Bob made a typo — Simmon’s fWAR is 54.2 (needs a catcher adjustment to… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

You’e right, Michael: Simmons’ fWAR figure was a typo. Sorry! Wish I could get in there and correct it. (Doug . . . ?)

I agree with you on fWAR for pitchers. I think B-R takes the right approach by calculating the quality of the defense behind pitchers and adjusting on that basis. Although there are plenty of flaws in defensive stats and another layer of problems in applying season defensive stats in a blanket way, it’s certainly far better than evaluating pitchers without to BiP outcomes, which generally constitute more than half of each game.

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago

OMG, I don’t think I can cope with this so sooooooon. Miguel Cairo does look tempting.

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Cairo and Spiezio sounds like a Personal Injury law firm. ‘Spiked at second? Call us to find out what your case is worth.”

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

~ 50 years later, I can still hear Curt Gowdy on his Saturday soap box speaking in ridiculously glowing terms about Dalton Jones. You’d have thought Jones was the second coming of Ted Williams.
Later, Gowdy switched allegiances and spoke about O’s prospects at Rochester (?), Grich, Coggins, Bumbry, and Baylor, etc…as if their super-stardom was a foregone conclusion and inevitability.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Well Grich is a pretty good call — if you choose a random 5 top prospects from a single team, what are the chances one of them becomes a hall of famer? Oh, right, those fsckers still haven’t put him in, so let’s say COGer instead.

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago

Michael Sullivan
Well, actually, since even Coggins did contribute to some degree at the major league level, I guess Gowdy’s enthusiasm was warranted. However, I don’t believe I ever heard him speak of any other organization’s prospects in such glowing terms. IIRC, Hank Peters or Frank Cashen or whomever was running the show for Baltimore back then didn’t make too many mistakes in those days. Their biggest (and only ?) blunder may have been thinking Rettenmund was going to replace Frank Robinson

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Curious splits for Dalton.
– as PH or 3B, 529 games, .265/.326/.379
– as 1B or 2B, 417 games, .215/.276/.323

There’s a little bit of double-counting in there, but this covers almost all his career. Seems like two different hitters. And, it’s not as if these are different periods in his career, as he played all of these positions throughout his career. Strange!

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug,
That first split may have been good for an OPS+ greater than 100 in those dead-ball days…the second? Not good

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

The other odd thing is that each of the good slash figures is about 50 points more than the corresponding bad one. So, Jones walked about as often and had the same ISO in both situations; he was just a lot better at hitting singles as a pinch-hitter or third baseman which, in the case of pinch-hitting, sort of makes sense.

Dr, Doom
Dr, Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Vote Cairo! He was an original Devil Ray! He somehow played for 9 franchises in 17 seasons! He had two stints with the Cubs… and the Cardinals… and the Yankees! He had two different seasons in which he played first, second, short, third, left, right, and DH! He had double-digit sac bunts three times! More career WAR (7.7) than Willie Bloomquist (1.6)! He led the league in Range Factor per 9 among second basemen in 1999! He had the third-best dWAR in the AL in 1998! He once stole 28 bases (2000)! He nearly managed double-digit homers once (8 in… Read more »

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
5 years ago

Off Topic: Some of you may remember that I taped Jeopardy! a couple months ago. My show is finally airing – tomorrow, January 25th! If you are able to watch and cheer me on, I’d very much appreciate it. I’m Steven, the contestant on the right-most podium.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Glad you posted this reminder here, CC, since the CoG posts generally bring in a wider HHS group. Hopefully, some of our long-lost friends will return over the next day (or over the next few days, if they have cable access to past shows) and learn about your breakthrough as the first HHS regular to do combat on Jeopardy! I know the show was taped awhile back, but, nevertheless, Good Luck!

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago

Thanks, Cursed. If I can get home in time, I’ll tune in and cheer.

mosc
mosc
5 years ago

Oh man. Is there a way to stream this? I cut the cord but I would love to watch this. What network is Jeopardy even on? I’ll find some way to watch it tonight!

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
5 years ago

For people without TVs, I have a link to the episode on Dailymotion I can post after it airs.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago

Please do, would be fun to watch.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
5 years ago
Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago

Very nice! Congrats! So you’ll be on again as the champ? Love the confidence and game theory with your bid on final to guarantee the win if you get it right. Hey, Jeopardy question, as someone who’s clearly pretty good at the game, if you don’t mind answering: For playing successfully, based on your sample size of presumably one to a few rounds — How would you balance the value of these various things in percentages or ratios: 1. Knowing the answers (at least within the time limits) 2. Knowing the answers instantly or super quickly. 3. Timing the buzzer… Read more »

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
5 years ago

I’d say about 60% buzzer, and then a mix of knowledge and nerves. Like you noted, everyone on the show knows a ton. It’s all about being able to buzz ahead of people, and keeping your cool so that you don’t blank on the things you know.

mosc
mosc
5 years ago

Does the buzzer penalize you for buzzing early? Is there some deterrent for buzzing before the question is complete?

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago

CC
You da man! That was some second half performance by you! I’m a little surprised no one else got the final jeopardy question correct but no matter since you wagered enough to cover even a correct answer from them. Again, congratulations!!

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

I think a lot of the questions I would know the answer but I could never formulate it that quickly. I get tongue tied so easily. Especially under stress, it’s a staggering skill.

I loved “Pikachoooooo”! I’m glad they didn’t make you answer that as a question.

bells
bells
5 years ago

Steve-O! I had to drive across Canada for a funeral last weekend so even though I had it marked in my calendar I had to catch up in the last couple of days. Congrats on a good run! Very close on the second game too, if you had gone into Final with the lead you would’ve got it, but a worthy opponent. As someone who has friends that are Jeopardy fanatics, it was exciting to tell them about it and have someone to root for.

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago

This is going to be a long one: Here is a comparison of some essential career stats of this round of contenders for the Circle of Greats versus those of select COG members —those who aren’t in the HOF, who aren’t currently ineligible for the HOF, and who aren’t named Bonds or Clemens. First, position players. WAR, PA, and OPS+ mean just what they say. HOS is the rating given to the player at Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats. The final stat is my own corrective to what I see as the tendency of both WAR and the HOS rating… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

nsb, I notice Dahlen and Wallace are not included on your list. Here are their stats (I assume the parenthetical figure next to WAR is dWAR):

Dahlen——-75.2 (28.5)—-10411—-110—–145—–72.2
Wallace——70.2 (28.7)——9617—-105—–145—–73.0 . . . (pitching 6.1—402—-125—-xxx—–15.17)

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Right. The chart took so long to lay out that my brain failed more seriously than normal, and I forgot to mention those facts. Nothing against the dead-ball guys—I just wanted to focus, to be honest, on the way the live-ball position players don’t match up to the live-ball COG inductees not in the Hall. With the pitchers, the ‘pitchur’—as we illiterati say—is clouded by Ferrell’s inclusion, since his hitting put him over the top.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

The question of how we should view career longevity is not simple. In general, we could think of comparing players with comparable qualifications for the CoG and significantly different career lengths as a contest between a player making his case on the basis of the high quality of his realized potential and a player making his case on the basis of total accomplishment. There is something to be said for each measure, and nsb’s table gives us both. (I’ve been using WAR per G and qualifying season for rate measures in my tables, but I’m jealous of nsb’s approach because,… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

It’s interesting; I guess I would argue that WAR itself already accounts for playing time on a seasonal basis. I mean, there are two reasons to use WAR rather than WAA. First, average players have value. A team made up entirely of average players will nearly make the playoffs – add in another star, and you’ve got a good shot at a Wild Card. But the second reason to use replacement rather than average is that it accounts for playing time. Is it better to be 50% better than average and only play 50% of the season, or is it… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

What a well thought, cogent post! I’m going to have to catch up over time to really test out some of your ideas so that I fully understand them, but you carried me along well enough for a first take. One detail: I do think assuming that a non-playing player earns 0.0 is only a strategy of convenience. As you say about Allen in his post-age-35 seasons, he was contributing nothing. But a player with 0.0 WAR contributes at replacement level. They’re different levels of contribution, I think. I’d be thrilled to think I’ve racked up scores of 0.0 WAR… Read more »

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I think the consensus is that below average WAR is mostly the Team’s fault. They do not have the talent or the analysis to deploy what is expected as a major league level minimum. I discount any negative WAR from a player’s career. I find it unnecessarily cruel. If the team wants the player to play, they must think he’s better than a replacement. If he’s not better, that’s on the team. To me, WAA is very valuable for this specific conversation. You’re not talking about comparing players that are on either side of average, you’re talking about comparing the… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

mosc, I take WAA+ into account as one measure I consider (entirely because of your repeated arguments, which I think have merit). But I disagree that it is the fault of the team and not the player when he earns negative WAR. Perhaps I really don’t understand the argument, since you say it may be a consensus one. Look at Albert in recent years. Of course the Angels could let him go and eat his contract, but they’d have to pay additional money for a replacement, and while a replacement might be better, if it’s a new player that’s a… Read more »

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I would say that there’s consensus that negative WAR is the team’s fault. Negative WAA is a different story. That’s mostly a contrivance I use when looking at all-time greats. I wouldn’t use WAA+ to compare single season excellence or evaluating a team’s performance.

I don’t like negative WAR. It’s mathematically necessary don’t get me wrong but I think it’s a little unfair.l

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I mean, you can’t punish him for not playing, right? Ted Williams lived into his nineties and spent much of that time in a wheelchair. We obviously don’t take away wins for that, nor do we punish for once upon a time having been eight years old and inadequate baseball players. WAR is measuring how much or little someone contributed to winning or losing. If you didn’t play, you didn’t contribute, nor did you hurt. So you get zero. It’s the same logic that says you shouldn’t punish Nettles for playing for teams desperate enough to play him in his… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago

Ferrell makes for a bit of an unusual comp here, because there’s no way he gets voted into the COG or even taken all that seriously for it without his 11.8 batting WAR. If you count that in, his WAR total is 60.6, right behind Pettitte, and his WAR/1000IP is second to Schilling and ahead of all the current ballot members at 23.1. Sutton really stands out as a “complier” relative to the other candidates with your WAR/mIP stat, which also seems to show why ferrell made it, and Schilling made it easily while the others lingered on the ballot.… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Michael, I think you’re right on all this, but I wouldn’t say anyone necessarily “hates” Brown. The problem is that Brown’s clear PED use in his later years undermines his statistical advantage. The PEDs allowed Brown to lengthen his career by overcoming injuries and pitching with an enhanced body. If you take away those years, his stats don’t look as exceptional (although his peak is still great), and his short career, relative to other candidates, becomes even shorter. Naturally, some voters simply won’t vote for someone they believe cheated in an essential way, but even those who will vote for… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Perhaps you are right. I tend to largely ignore PED considerations here because there is no character clause, and also we seriously do not have any clue who was or wasn’t taking them beyond the few people who were caught. And I didn’t realize/remember that he was a definite user and not just suspected (perhaps new shit has come to light since I was active here during the original COG process). I’m really down on penalizing people for suspected PED use, because I think there are probably a LOT of players who used them but were never suspected and assumed… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Michael, the Mitchell Report goes into great detail on Brown and PEDs. I cited the full entry in a comment to last year’s CoG Part 2 string (near the top, in reply to the second comment, from Doom) — I don’t want to repeat it here, chiefly because I think it would irritate Brown’s supporters, but if you’re interested, it’s available. Based on the Mitchell report, I estimate up to 25% of Brown’s career WAR was PED-based.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Here’s my vote: Main ballot: Dahlen, Tiant, Wallace Secondary ballot: Dawson, Lyons, Reuschel An extra word about Wallace. In past CoG rounds, I’ve often chosen only one between Dahlen and Wallace, and it has usually been Dahlen, who has a clear and outstanding profile as a premier shortstop, and whose WAR as an infielder is significantly (but not overwhelmingly) higher than Wallace. But in supplementing nsb’s table, I noticed that in his 400 innings as a pitcher, Wallace’s WAR rate was more or less competitive with others whom we’re considering for the CoG on the basis of pitching skills. It… Read more »

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I didn’t even know he pitched. I don’t really like either guy to be honest but I will keep that in mind when it comes up again if I’m picking between them.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago

Why are we only having 4 rounds of voting?
Smith and Baines were also elected.

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Irony? Or did it slip your mind that the COG duplicates the regular BBWA number of electees?

mosc
mosc
5 years ago

I think it nicely rounds things out that we exclude the supplemental. We have fewer spots but the actual hall has a lot of stupidity. The “level” is more closely aligned when we are forced to pick with fewer spots.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago

Re-introducing PaWaa Designed to measure “greatness”. This is Plate Appearances per Win Above Average Here are the career leaders: PaWaa – Career – Minimum 2000 PA 84.4 … (10622) Babe Ruth 96.0 … (4673) Mike Trout* 97.2 … (9480) Rogers Hornsby 102.1 … (12606) Barry Bonds 104.0 … (9788) Ted Williams 113.5 … (12496) Willie Mays 123.1 … (9663) Lou Gehrig 125.7 … (9907) Mickey Mantle 127.7 … (11748) Honus Wagner 128.5 … (13084) Ty Cobb 135.8 … (11992) Tris Speaker 137.3 … (10062) Mike Schmidt 138.9 … (2084) Red Ruffing 140.5 … (7673) Joe DiMaggio 141.3 … (5695) Joe… Read more »

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Interesting stuff, Voomo.

Especially liked the last, showing others with similar rankings as those currently on the ballot; by that measure would seem that most of our candidates are worthy of consideration.

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Great work, Voomo. Also reminds you of who really is “Inner Circle”. One small question, since I noticed Red Ruffing on there, who had Did you adjust Ruth’s PaWaa for his pitching WAA?

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Those are purely Ruth’s offensive numbers.

His IpWaa is 132.7
Which is good, but not great.
Here is a sample of where that stacks compared to some guys we know:

73.5 …. (1969) Dean
80.3 …. (3256) Brown
93.1 …. (3548) Reuschel
101.0 … (3486) Tiant
107.4 … (3286) Eckersley
109.3 … (3170) Ford
136.6 … (2719) Claude Passeau
141.8 … (3219) Dutch Leonard
144.8 … (2781) Lon Warneke
152.1 … (3104) Bucky Walters

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago

Vote:

Kevin Brown
Dwight Evans
Manny Ramirez

Todd Helton
Ted Lyons
Willie Randolph

mosc
mosc
5 years ago

Of all the people on either ballot, I think Andre Dawson was the best player listed. I’m confused why he has long been relegated so low in favor compared to Lofton, Evans, Ashburn, and others. Dawson’s defense is getting overlooked. Old Dawson could not play center. He didn’t keep his defense in his later years like Lofton, Hunter, or Cameron but in his prime he was a gold glove center fielder and I think that’s lost. His offense was consistently above average but I think we’re discounting the overall value of the 8-time gold glove winner by selectively remembering his… Read more »

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Doom, I read your posts on Kevin Brown every cycle. Even the ones where you copy and paste some stuff from the previous threads. I hear you, I just can’t look at his raw numbers without some kind of correction and it doesn’t hold up.

When do I get to vote for Monte Irvin again?

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

It’s going to take a while before that chance to vote for Irvin comes up, mosc. According to the rules Doug proposed and we accepted last year, governing the Secondary Ballot: – players appearing on fewer than 10% of the secondary ballots cast will drop from the secondary ballot and will only become COG-eligible again if elected in a future Redemption round – future redemption rounds will occur when there are three or fewer players on the secondary ballot Judging by the vote so far (only 8 ballots, if I’m counting right), no Secondary Ballot candidate has less than 37.5%… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Mosc, that’s an interesting comment about Dawson. Made me reevaluate him and hold up voting. I think Dawson is too identified with the “blank contract collusion” year, 1987, and after, when he was still a great power hitter, but his knees started betray him, He had negative dWAR for all but one season from 1985 on. And his profile, which included about a 5% walk rate, is disfavored by modern metrics. But I’m going to look again.,

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

From an offensive perspective, Evans had a better career than Dawson. That said, over a 8 year period (age 22-29), Dawson amassed 9.5 DWAR. That’s a long and prolific defensive career we’re washing away with the middling DH-like performances he maintained in his 30s. Dewey wasn’t bad as a right fielder helped by Boston’s cavernous side (I have long held that Fenway skews attempts between left and right field compared to all other parks and it messes with defensive stats) and managed 7.5 DWAR in right over the same age window (22-29) but at his peak was not Andre Dawson… Read more »

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

I’d ask the following research question on Dawson: “Who are the worst position players in the history of baseball to put up a 4-year WAR total of 29.0?” I bet the answer is Andre Dawson along with a half dozen other HOF inner-circle members.

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

As a long suffering Expos fan, despite Dawson’s admirable traits that you’ve highlighted, it was still tedious watching him get himself out by chasing bad pitches as much as he did; that 5.5% walk rate doesn’t lie!

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug,
The Hawk won’t walk….Bill James, sometime around 1985 in one of his annual abstracts, compared Dawson and Dale Murphy by merely utilizing their road stats. Trying to emphasize the advantage that Fulton County stadium provided Murphy, by this metric it was pretty clear that Dawson was superior. IIRC, I believe even Jose Cruz’ road stats were superior to Murphy’s ?

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Ok, CC. I just turned off the TV and I’m swearing off challenging you on anything you say here.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

CC: Congratulations. And it’s ironic that the Final Jeopardy answer was the name of a baseball team.

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago

Aaackkk, I missed Cursed. Fail!

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Oh, that sucks, dude.
Too bad there isnt some magic machine that just lets you watch whatever you want whenever you want.

Oh, wait…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gObyJTRpCzw

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Nice, Voomo. I had no idea these things went up so instantly.

I advise all HHSers to check out the link and find out what we’re up against here.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Wow. I hadnt watched Jeopardy in a long time.
That was terrific.

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Doomed….um, wait. Cursed?

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

oh man! Thank you for the link so much!

opal611
opal611
5 years ago

For the 1974 Part 1 election, I’m voting for:

-Manny Ramirez
-Don Sutton
-Luis Tiant

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Abreu
-Evans
-Brown
-Boyer
-Ashburn
-Nettles
-Allen
-Wallace
-Dahlen

Thanks!

opal611
opal611
5 years ago

For the Secondary Ballot, I’m voting for:
-Andre Dawson
-Todd Helton
-Willie Randolph

Thanks!

Joseph
Joseph
5 years ago

Hey, it’s been a couple of years since I stopped by; hope you all are doing well.

I’m going to show my complete bias here and vote for favorites, even though some others may be more qualified.

Nettles
Randolph
Pettitte

And–wow–there are some excellent players on this ballot. I’d have a hard time choosing if I weren’t so biased. Except for Nettles; he always gets my vote.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Joseph

Hi Joseph – Welcome back! The rules have changed since your last visit. We now have two ballots. The ballot for the Circle itself is the Primary Ballot. Nettles is on it, but not Randolph and Pettitte. There is a Secondary Ballot, and the candidates on it compete to be added to the Primary Ballot: that’s the race Randolph and Pettitte are in. To cast a valid vote, what you can do is resubmit your ballot with a list of three names from each of the ballots (that is, Nettles plus two others from the Primary Ballot, and Randolph &… Read more »

Joseph
Joseph
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Okay, thanks. Primary: Nettles, Sutton, Boyer. Last two are strategic votes–that’s allowed, right? (none of the new guys, but I considered Abreu). Funny, a co-worker and I were discussing the new admittees to the the HOF just the other day, in particular Harold Baines (WTH?) and I mentioned Nettles as someone I think has been unjustly overlooked. His response was, “I think he should be in the HOF just for his plays in the 78 World Series.” It’s funny how when we were kids and baseball meant so much to us, we have a hard time letting go of those… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Joseph

Yeah, strategic voting is still allowed — you can vote for any player on a ballot for any reason (and in the redemption round, I believe any player at all). And strategic voting has been necessary at times in this format to keep players on the ballot who clearly belong. I’m not sure there’s anybody on our list currently that you can say indisputably does belong, but there’s still more than three I’d personally be ok with enshrining and vote for if they were the best three on the ballot, so I’ll be choosing between them based on strategic considerations… Read more »

Dave Humbert
Dave Humbert
5 years ago

Hi gang, it’s that time of year again…..and 4 rounds of voting! Noticed that the secondary ballot voting will likely be churning with no one dropping off – I think last year it was suggested we do a redemption round each year to ensure the secondary ballot gets refreshed with alternate candidates. Otherwise we may never lose anyone from the secondary ballot by drop-off and cripple the ability of anyone not on the ballots to have a shot at reconsideration. Doug – are we having a redemption round at some point among this year’s efforts? Palmeiro, Reuschel, Clarke, Newhouser, and… Read more »

Dave Humbert
Dave Humbert
5 years ago
Reply to  Dave Humbert

Oops…..Reuschel did make it onto the secondary ballot already……how about Coveleski?

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Dave Humbert

Let’s see how it plays out before deciding on another redemption round. If there’s enough support for the primary ballot candidates, the secondary ballot may shrink each round. But, if not, might consider upping the redemption round threshold from 3 secondary ballot candidates to 4 or 5.

T-Bone
T-Bone
5 years ago

Dick Allen, Dwight Evans, Ted Simmons

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Initial vote tally! We have 11 votes for the Primary Ballot, and I thought it would be good to bring everyone up to date about where the voting stands. Only 10 have voted for the Secondary Ballot, but since all candidates are well above the 10% mark I’m including that tally too. (Asterisks are for Primary Ballot players on the bubble, who will drop from the ballot of they draw under 10% of the votes.) Primary Ballot With 11 ballots submitted, with these results: =================50% (6) 4 – Dwight Evans, Luis Tiant =================25% (4) 3 – Kevin Brown, Bill Dahlen,… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Don Sutton? Let’s compare him with the six other pitchers—all in the COG—who have the same approximate numbers of innings pitched: Ph. Niekro——-97.2 pWAR, 50.8 WAA, 188 Hall of Stats Rating No. Ryan——–84.1 pWAR, 35.4 WAA, 146 HOS Ga. Perry——–93.4 pWAR, 45.3 WAA, 174 HOS Wa. Spahn——92.6 pWAR, 41.1 WAA, 177 HOS St. Carlton——-84.4 pWAR, 40.0 WAA, 168 HOS Pe. Alexander–117.1 pWAR, 77.0 WAA, 252 HOS Do. Sutton——-68.6 pWAR, 23.3 WAA, 113 HOS So-o-o, yeah, he’s last in all categories—but that wouldn’t matter if he were, say, five or even ten percent down from the lowest figures of his nearest… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

It’s always interesting to see how differently those who comment on HHS assess players. I’d love to see someone actually make the CoG case for Sutton. . . . If you except 1981, only two-thirds of a season, from 1966-86 Sutton had 20 straight seasons of 200+ IP; only one early season was seriously below average and one was very fine (maybe two). In the business world, a guy like that is simply invaluable. And baseball’s a business. . . . Really, I admired Sutton. He seemed like an honest working stiff: at best, the second starter on a top… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I think you just made a reasonable case, honestly. I mean, I don’t think fangraphs is correct that FIP is the be all and end all, but the fact that his FIP results are better than his RA results, suggests that the results (and bWAR) may be underestimating his value as a pitcher, even if I don’t really trust fangraph’s number.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago

I’m not voting for Sutton, he not in my COG, and he’s probably my least favorite of the candidates on the current ballots, but.. 1. Anybody who was worth roughly 70 wins over the course of their career is not going to be a travesty of a selection, no matter how weak their peak relative to other enshrinees. Yeah, Sutton is the classic compiler, but unlike raw counting stats, you can’t compile any significant amount of WAR unless you’re adding value to your teams. 2. You’re not comparing him here to any pitcher that had trouble getting selected to the… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago

Before leaving this subject I would like for everyone to recall a couple of things: 1) The title of the hypothetical group of superior players the voting enshrines is called the Circle of Greats. I urge you to consider the listings of those players, only a couple of clicks away from this page. When I personally look at those listings, I see an element of “Greatness” in nearly every player, either from their statistics alone or from some facet or several facets of their playing or pitching performance. Ford, who gets heavy bombardment here, was arguably a great pitcher for… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago

Well, whatever you do, you have to draw the line somewhere. Somebody is going to be the last guy in, that some people feel belongs and some people don’t. And realistically, it’s going to be a bunch of guys just in or just out, that we could have endless arguments about. IMO, Ford is basically what the BBWAA *thought* Jack Morris was — a guy who’s traditional stats look spectacular and who had very good press in his day Unlike Morris, he still looks HoF quality after going through the sabermetric ringer and accounting for all the great teams he… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago

I’m having a hard time getting excited about this crew. Need more time.

Andy
Andy
5 years ago

Primary: Kevin Brown, Don Sutton, Graig Nettles
Secondary: Todd Helton, Andre Dawson, Rick Reuschel

JEV
JEV
5 years ago

Glad to vote again.

Brown, Manny, and a vote to a personal favorite, Bobby Abreu.

Secondary, Dawson, Lyons, and Helton.

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  JEV

Why is he a personal favorite? I never thought the guy got much fan connection thanks to moving around a lot and general disposition.

Chris C
Chris C
5 years ago

Main ballot vote:
Manny
Kevin Brown
Dwight Evans

Secondary Ballot vote:
Dawson
Randolph
Pettite

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Since the 1901 border has become an issue for the assessment of Bill Dahlen and Bobby Wallace, I thought I’d try an experiment. Using the B-R Play Index, I sorted on WAR for players who played at least 60% of their games at shortstop in the decade 1901-10. The top 8 formed a natural cutoff point. Shortstops of 1901-1910; 800+ games, sorted by WAR WAR … WAA … Games … Ages ….. Player 84.6 ….. 64.5 ….. 1406 ….. 27-36 ….. Honus Wagner (CoG) 52.4 ….. 30.5 ….. 1374 ….. 27-36 ….. Bobby Wallace 37.8 ….. 22.4 ……. 990 …..… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Bob: You’re on the money re Wallace especially, according to me. Frank Chance’s name popping up here is very interesting. He’s in the HOF, but gets demerits for his short career. His WAR/PA (x 10000) for the decade is 94.91, a terrific rate. In spite of averaging only 483 PAs a season, in other words, he generated 41.6 WAR. Injuries and managerial concerns kept him on the bench a quarter of the time in his peak years. Despite that he led the league in SBs twice, runs scored once, OBP once, and from 1903-07 he finished third, second, fourth, third,… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago

Not that anyone cares, but the above should read 438 PAs per year for Chance in the decade, not 483.

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

For the record, Dahlen was 3 years, 10 months older than Wallace. – Dahlen was a regular from 1891 at age 21. – Wallace was a regular as a pitcher in 1895 and 1896 (6.2 WAR at age 21-22, 8th ranked ERA+ in 12 team league), and as a position player starting in 1897 (age 23). – Their last seasons as regulars were in 1908 for Dahlen (age 38) and 1911 for Wallace (age 37). So, Dahlen’s top 3 oWAR and top 2 WAR seasons come from his first six years that include: – two with the 50 foot pitching… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, I don’t think the figures for Dahlen are correct. Dahlen’s top three WAR seasons come in his first 8 years (not 6): 6.1 (1892), 7.1 (1894), and 5.7 (1898), and he produced four additional 5+ WAR seasons (1903-5, 1908). I suspect you were just looking at oWAR.

It’s correct that Dahlen moved from a hitter’s profile to a fielder’s.

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Right you are, Bob. I was looking at the oWAR column. I’ve corrected the comment.

Hub Kid
Hub Kid
5 years ago

Primary ballot: Tiant, Evans, Boyer I guess I’m going with an All-Overlooked ballot, obviously somewhat swayed by being a Red Sox homer, and the chance to vote for Tiant & Evans together. If fWAR can’t tell Sutton’s and Tiant’s careers apart, I can; while the career value between the two might be debatable, one of them did get into the Hall of Fame, and I still think the fun and interesting part of voting on borderline players here is to debate the non-HOF players who are probably Hall-worthy. Oh, and hooray for the Abreu vote (thanks, JEV); all of those… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  Hub Kid

Just a minor correction: fWAR sees an ENORMOUS difference: 30.9 WAR difference, to be clear – 85.6 for Sutton and 54.7 for Tiant. On the other hand, bWAR sees only 1/10 of that difference, with Sutton being given a 68.9-65.9 advantage.

Hub Kid
Hub Kid
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I stand by my point about overlooked players, although I confused the numbers when writing above (probably reverting in my head to bWAR because I am so much more familiar with it).

mosc
mosc
5 years ago

I’m hoping Evans doesn’t win this first round not because I don’t think he’ll be inducted this year but because I’d like to have a more thorough discussion of Dawson vs Evans. If Evans DOESN’T win and Dawson gets redeemed, then it’s on for Part 2.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago

I want to say something about Don Sutton and the two WAR systems, and I’m worried it’s going to get lost in the weeds if I put it up higher in the Don Sutton discussion, so I’m putting it here. I hope that’s okay. This is going to be VERY math-heavy, so I’m sorry for that. But if you really want a good dissection of what the WARs are doing, I hope this can help you. Don Sutton is a fascinating Hall of Fame case. He won 324 games, losing only 256 in a very long career. That .559 winning… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Doom,
I’m sold on Sutton. Just goes to show there had to be some reason for a 20+ year major league career
SUTTON
ALLEN
SIMMONS

DAWSON
RANDOLPH
LYONS

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Doom, I think this is a wonderful post. I feel like an idiot for having assumed with such certainty that FIP was the root of the issue that I didn’t even bother to check for an ERA/FIP gap. You’ve done great research. When I said I’d like to see someone make the positive argument for Sutton, I didn’t expect anything this powerful. I don’t see Unearned Runs as the source of the discrepancy. Sutton’s surplus over Earned Runs is a little over 10%, which seems to be the norm for the span of years Sutton bridged. I compared him to… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

In my reply, I wondered why those five 300-game winners would have faced such different levels of opponents. On reflection, I suppose the way to approach strength of schedule issues is, for years when our pitchers were active and the season schedule “unbalanced,” to look at the offensive strength of the teams in their division, other than their own, compared to league average. I suppose that way you could get a good first glimpse . . . Someone like Seaver, who spent many seasons playing for offensively puny Mets teams, would get a boost from recognition that for those years… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Thanks, Doom for picking up the challenge I laid down re Sutton. This is what HHS does best, or so say I.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I’m not sure that the W-L records, or even the ERA, are central to this issue. As I understand it, what pWAR seems to measure in this respect is a pitcher’s RA performance against teams viewed against all other pitchers’ performance. So you might have a terrible record of 0-5 W-L; 5.75 RA against a really good team, but if a league average pitcher had a record of 3-4 W-L; 6.00 ERA against the same team then you’re performance adds positive value towards your WAA (and, naturally, WAR), even though you pitched terribly. You expect most pitchers to do best… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

bWAR = baseball-reference WAR
fWAR = Fangraphs WAR
gWAR = Baseball Gauge WAR
WARP = Baseball Prospectus Wins Above Replacement Player
oWAR = offensive WAR (+ position adjustment), as figured at B-R
dWAR = defensive WAR (+ position), as figured at B-R
pWAR = something I’ve never seen written by anyone but you 🙂

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Oh. Well, that’s embarrassing. I guess I’ll have to say goodbye to pWAR — I’m not sure now how he came to be, but he was a good buddy.

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Actually, Doom and Bob, I’m the one who uses pWAR a lot, but it’s merely to differentiate the WAR pitchers accrue on the mound as opposed to their oWAR. It is, after all, the figure that normally shows up for a pitcher, not his pitching and batting WAR combined, and it is, with rare exceptions, the figure that is cited and argued about.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago

pWAR is a player’s value while afflicted with kidney stones.

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

…….exacerbated by an enlarged prostate

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Skipping over the insightful comments of Voomo and Paul (who remind me how long it has been since HHS had female followers to keep us on good behavior), I’m relieved to have had an authority to rely on in my nomenclature, and I think nsb’s usage is useful. When I use ‘pWAR’ I also mean the calculation that shows up in B-R under the pitching category only; even though pitchers’ total WAR includes oWAR and dWAR. (I’m not sure I’ve always stuck to that distinction, but if not it’s likely because I’ve been unclear when citing a WAR figure for… Read more »

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I agree that all the results, positive and negative, will tend to wash out in many instances. My point, perhaps not well explained, was that if you just do what everybody else does (i.e. pitch better against the weaker teams, and worse against the stronger ones), you’re probably going to have a tough time consistently accumulating bWAR. So, what type of pitcher would do well in bWAR? Leaving aside the obvious answer of the pitcher who pitches great against everybody, it seems to me that the pitcher who pitches to the level of his competition will be well rewarded by… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Well said. It aligns with the old ideas of “pacing yourself” and “pitching to the score.” Why wear out your arm throwing at top speed to the St. Louis Browns if your teammates are likely to score a score of runs against their feeble pitching staff?

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I saw a Tom Seaver interview where he indicated he would occassionally “allow” a base hit in the early going to bottom of the order hitters so that they kind of “got their hit for the day” and that hitter might not necessarily be bearing down as much later in the game in a critical situation with runners on base…… Must be how I got my hits in little league

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Wow — that’s pinning a lot on kind of a pop-psych idea of motivation, but Seaver’s a very smart fellow, and I’m sure he wouldn’t be talking about it if he didn’t feel his idea had worked. No one ever gave me any hits . . . they may have tried to, though.

Doug
Doug
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Jack Morris is a guy who had the reputation of pitching to the score, and his career splits tend to agree, with a 3.54 ERA against teams with losing records. I don’t know what sort of W-L record you might expect to go with that mostly 1980s ERA, but probably not Morris’s actual record of 158-66, a .705 clip. In contrast, his 4.28 ERA against .500+ teams was only good for a 96-120 record, a .444 percentage.

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago

Let’s posit that Don Sutton’s case for admission to the Circle of Greats depends on whether his performance equals that of Whitey Ford in general terms, since Ford is regarded as one of the COG’s lesser lights. Ford’s innings pitched are almost exactly 60% of Suttons, giving us a rough picture of how to equate certain of the statistics. It’s also good to note that Ford pitched mostly in a medium to high run-scoring environment, while Sutton labored much of the time in a low to medium run-scoring environment. Park Factors are nearly the same for the two careers, 94.9… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Lots to think about, nsb, and much more extensive than my response to Doom’s blockbuster. In terms of the current ballot, why not make the comparison to Tiant, rather than the Perennial Comparator, Whitey Ford? (I know Ford is an example of borderline CoG, but so is Luis on the other side of threshold, so far.) Sutton’s stats cover about 52% more IP than Tiant’s, which frequently gives Sutton higher absolute numbers compiled at a lower rate, but also reflects his ability to contribute steadily over a long period. (The two overlap for 17 seasons, which makes the comparison, perhaps,… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Looking at these figures for Sutton and Tiant, it seems pretty reasonable that B-R assesses their WAR levels as only 3.0 WAR apart (Sutton having the edge: longevity edging out quality). But how does FanGraphs come up with a differential of 30.9 WAR, ten times as great a disparity? As Doom noted, Sutton’s +16.7 with fWAR was not a matter of FIP vastly superior to ERA (his FIP is lower, but only fractionally, 3.26 to 3.24). In Tiant’s case there’s a modest distinction: FIP 3.47; ERA 3.30, but that would seem pretty minor compared to a drop of 11.2 WAR,… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
5 years ago

Main vote:

Allen
Evans
Boyer

Secondary:

Dawson
Helton
Evans

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Richard, your Secondary Ballot is not valid because Evans is not a candidate. Looks like a slip, thinking back to the Primary Ballot. Could you correct it?

Richard chester
Richard chester
5 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Yes I meant Lyon’s. How did you know?

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
5 years ago

So, a cool out of the blue thing happened today after my 2nd episode aired. Because the jumbo shrimp question I got mentioned the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, the Marlins AA affiliate, they invited me to be a guest at a game this year and they’re sending me some gear. I didn’t even get to talk on the show about how much I love baseball so it’s a nice coincidence.

Of course, I still have some issues with the Marlins because of 1997, but I think for a moment or two I can let bygones be bygones.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

That adds to another great round, CC. You were just as sharp and it was hard to believe that your reign could close on such a strong performance — it looked like extra innings for a second. You had a terrific two days. We’re all basking in reflected glory at HHS.

mosc
mosc
5 years ago

Who’s got the video link to day 2?

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc
mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

eh, got axed already

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

I did find one, god bless random youtubers

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago

Sounds cool, CC! I’m glad you had that very cool opportunity! Enjoy your winnings, your new pinball machine, and have fun at the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp game! If you’d like to work up a post for all of us to read here at HHS after you’ve gone to the game, we would more-than enjoy reading it!

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago

Do you get to keep the 30k you won while “losing”? Not bad for 2 days. Seemed like she was pretty good with the buzzer (she got in for a bunch of stuff I can’t believe you didn’t know), and she was killing it for the insurance category. A bit surprised she didn’t get double indemnity too, but then she’s 31, perhaps not an old movie buff, and hardly anybody uses that term anymore (source: I’m a life insurance agent).

Mike L
Mike L
5 years ago

Since we are considering Sutton and there’s some very good work below by Michael Sullivan, NSB, and Bob, I want to talk about Sutton in the context of….Harold Baines (groans permissible here). Old guys (like me) remember when Sutton was approaching his 300 win and there was a debate going on about how you could let this “compiler” (we didn’t use that phrase then) into the rarified Hall–but how could you keep him out? Sutton had a terrific age-35 year (6.6 BWAR) and spent the next 8 seasons being a useful mid-rotation arm (a total of 18WAR) None of us… Read more »

mosc
mosc
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

I think the thrill of looking at his fWAR against his bWAR should be taken with some perspective. fWAR is a much more simplistic calculation. Using league average everything for every ball in play tells a very different story and not just FIP vs ERA. BBREF also factors in team defense and the expected run output of the opposition. Sutton did not play against average competition and he did not play in front of an average defensive squad. LA is an extreme pitchers park too remember which is somewhat ignored by FIP (because all balls in play are treated the… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

One quick note about b-r’s use of a defensive adjustment: that’s not perfect, either. The reason it’s not perfect is the same that assuming pitchers had a league-average offense is a bad idea. Defenders do not play the same for every pitcher, every year. Tango has written about this a couple of times (I checked the old blog for the Verlander-Scherzer-Porcello posts; I remember reading them, but I couldn’t find them). You can chalk this disparity between pitchers on the same team up to a skill for the pitcher if you like; I would argue that the fact that the… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  mosc

To play devil’s advocate to your argument: if Cone or Saberhagen had added another 5-6 years of useful (average) pitching (10-12 WAR) to their resumes, or Gooden another 8-9 to get into Sutton’s WAR range — wouldn’t they be *fairly obvious* COG members? As it was, they got a lot of play and conversation, and I honestly thought we had put Cone and Saberhagen in! Damn, they should be on the ballot! And in the alternate world where Colon has no bad seasons and end up with 65+ WAR to go with his 197 RAA or Moyer has more good… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Your comment as an ‘Old Guy” makes me feel ancient (as do most things these days), and it also brought to my deteriorating mind another possible comp for Don Sutton, but from out of the past—Early Wynn. I won’t detail their similarities—Sutton was better in most respects—but I will relate these facts: Wynn’s win total reached the 290s in 1961. In 1962 there was a lot of fanfare about him making the 300 level, and you have to remember that back then very few 20th Century pitchers had passed the mark, Warren Spahn being the seventh in 1961, but the… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
5 years ago

Regarding Early Wynn: When I did my analysis of what a pitcher’s record “should” be, given his ERA+ and innings pitched, Early Wynn shows up as one of the luckiest pitchers of all-time, and one of those who is most helped by his actual, rather than projected, pitching record. First, he had 544 decisions; at one decision per nine, a normal distribution would’ve given him 507. His winning percentage was actually .551; normally, a player with a 107 ERA+ would have a .534. Using 507 decisions and a .534 rate, we get a 271-236 record. That is definitely worse than… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
5 years ago

On 9-29-1943 Early Wynn started against the Indians while pitching or the Senators. The Senators won 7-4. Wynn pitched 4.2 innings but was given credit for the win.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Thank you, nsb, for that trip to the past. I remember listening to the end of Wynn’s 300th wynn in a motel room somewhere in the midwest, rooting for Jerry Walker (who pitched the last four innings) to put an end to the suspense. I really liked Wynn, and had been in a state of infantile apoplexy when the Sox discarded him. Although his 300th win was a very mediocre start, Wynn actually pitched extremely well in ’63: his OPS+ was 161 in 55.1 IP. (I was surprised at the time that Wynn didn’t retire as soon as he hit… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

As far as being a compiler, Lou Whitaker’s “peak” doesn’t seem all that superior when compared to Sutton and Whitaker was good enough for this group. As far as peak, there isn’t a hitter on this board (save for multiple-PED-offender Manny on steroids) that can match Allen’s 165 OPS+ from age 22-32. If we damn Sutton for being a “compiler” (unlike our treatment of ‘Sweet Lou’) , then why don’t we praise Allen for his peak? There is no detritus in Allen’s age 33-35 demise-it was literally worthless. I would suggest he is our test of peak value as there… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Why did Sandy Koufax make the COG and Dick Allen not? Why ask why? They both have had hard core supporters but not quite enough support on a lot of ballots, but Koufax finally saw a ballot with just enough. Two other factors — Koufax’s career was cut short by injury, but it’s not clear exactly what happened to Allen. He’s also got more fame and ridiculous raw numbers on his side. IMO, even saber-minded fans have trouble not having their perceptions skewed just a little bit by unadjusted numbers (except when it comes to Coors field for some reason,… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago

Michael S ” it’s not clear exactly what happened to Allen”: I believe he was frequently injured during his peak as well as suspended in 1969. 1966 – 20 games – shoulder separation while stealing a base 1967 – 40 games – lacerated wrist and severed ulna nerve while pushing a Ford in the rain 1969 – ~ 30 games – suspended for missing a double header while stuck in the Holland Tunnell 1970 – 40 games – torn hamstring stealing second base 1973 – 80+ games – broken tibia run over while fielding a throw at 1B 1974 –… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
5 years ago

Dick Allen had an OPS+ at least 145 in all 11 of his 2nd through 12th seasons. Ted Williams is the only other player who has done that. One of Allen’s seasons was non-qualifying and Williams had 2 such seasons.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Paul, I think you’ve restated the case we all face when evaluating Allen very well — it echoes the Allen vs. Nettles discussion above. I think everyone praises Allen for his peak. The question is how much peak for how long do you need to overcome a short duration of career contributions. On averaging pitcher bWAR and fWAR 50/50, I get the intuitive angle, but I don’t think it stands up. There are, admittedly, problems in bWAR’s component measures — fielding, strength of schedule, and so forth. Doom focused on the simplistic measure of RA9def above — not all a… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Oh, to answer about Whitaker. Whitaker’s peak may not stand out, but that’s mostly because his typical season was so good! Whitaker played 19 seasons and had only *4* with less than 3WAR or 1.5 WAA! 3 of them were his initial cup of coffee and his last two before retiring. Both of those were still above average, and the penultimate season his WAR/PA was still equivalent to a 4 WAR full season. From his first full rookie year to his second to last season, excepting only one weird 1980 season, where he must have been playing hurt or messing… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago

Michael
Very enlightening. Is fWAR as kind to Lou as it is to Sutton? It’s the tale of two Suttons…..

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Whitaker: bWAR 75.1; fWAR 68.1

For position players, fWAR and bWAR don’t have the structural divergence in method that is the case for pitcher WAR.

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago

Michael ,
FWIW, per fangraphs
Top 11 Seasons
6.1 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 Louie W. (50.2 fWAR)
7.1 6.8 6.0 5.4 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.7 Donny S. (54.4 fWAR)
Peak 5 Consecutive
4.8 6.0 3.8 4.7 4.5 (Lou 23.8)
7.1 6.8 6.0 4.3 5.4 (Donnie 29.7)

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
5 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

If you trust fangraphs WAR for pitchers (I don’t), then Don Sutton is a ridiculously obvious COG candidate, not borderline at all, and comparable to or clearly better than a number of pitcher’s we’ve already elected without much opposition.

If you don’t, then this comparison is basically meaningless.

Paul E
Paul E
5 years ago

Hey, I understand. Believe it or not, I still have a problem with Coors Field despite all the back and forth on that.
By the same token, Sutton did play ~23 years in the majors and there aren’t too many others that did. If he’s the weakest of the 23 year veterans or guys that threw 5,000 innings, so be it

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
5 years ago

Sutton does have the third most games started of all time. That right there is pretty impressive.

And nobody in the current generation is going to come anywhere near that.

Unless Ryne Stanek starts half of the Rays’ games… for the next 10 years.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
5 years ago

Since this is the first CoG round of the year, it may be good to point out that the deadline Doug has posted for voting is the final minute of January, as measured in Punxsutawney PA, which falls on Thursday night. There are several contributors who have been active on this string but have not yet voted, so I thought a reminder might be helpful.