2018 Awards Voting: Rookie and Manager of the Year

Hello as always, HHSers! Dr. Doom here again.

Let’s get to the main event: the minor awards. Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year, in both leagues. They may be the hardest to evaluate, and the ones that are most likely to make you throw up your hands and shout, “Oh who knows?!” So let’s hop to it with some thoughts!

In the NL, the media will tell you that it looks to be a battle between Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto for rookie honors. Don’t sleep on everyone else, though. Harrison Bader plays astonishing CF and hasn’t been bad with the bat. Another Cardinal, Jack Flaherty, has turned in a pretty great season – about 150 innings with a 3.34 ERA ain’t bad for a rookie. Even better was Walker Buehler with 3.4 WAR and 2.62 ERA in 23 starts and 137.1 IP. Others to consider include Brian Anderson (3.9 WAR) and Dereck Rodriguez (2.81 ERA in 19 starts and 118.1 IP).  But remember, your ballot has only three slots.

Over in the Junior Circuit, Shohei Otani grabbed the headlines early, and with good reason. However, the AL rookie WAR leader, with a creditable 4.3 score (3.7 on FanGraphs), was (senior citizen) Joey Wendle, a 28-year-old who played all over the diamond. Brad Keller, a “swing-man” for the Royals, put up a nice 3.08 ERA in 140 innings (other notables with rookie seasons of 20+ starts and 20+ relief appearances include Orel Hershiser, Dean Chance and Mike Garcia). The only rookie All-Star was Gleyber Torres with his .275/.343/.482 slash playing 2B and SS on the big stage in the Bronx next to Miguel Andujar, he of the 47 doubles (tied with Fred Lynn for the AL rookie record) and 27 dingers. And, don’t forget Ryan Yarborough in Tampa with 147.1 IP and 16 wins; those totals are the most for any reliever (80% of appearances), never mind a rookie, since, respectively, 1991 and 1977.

As for managers… well, what do you like? Do you like those guys who’ve met high expectations in the AL, like Alex CoraA.J. Hinch, or Aaron Boone. Or, are you a fan of Bob Melvin‘s overperforming A’s? In the NL, do you think Dave Roberts overcame the most injuries and deserves credit for bringing the Dodgers as far as they’ve gotten? Do you want to reward Bud Black, Craig Counsell, or Brian Snitker for getting their teams there a year or two before they were supposed to get there? Or maybe Mike Schildt, for turning around a .500 Cardinal team and almost taking them to the post-season? Or do you think the grand Gabe Kapler experiment has been enough of a success to merit a vote, despite a late-season collapse? Let us know!

Rules: Vote by making a comment below and numbering your choices with 1 being the MOST preferred candidate, and 3 being your LEAST preferred candidate of your three choices. Please vote under only one screen name (I’m looking at you, RockInTheHall; it’s been five years, but I haven’t forgotten). Your ballots will be EXACTLY three places for each award, just as the BBWAA does. Scoring will be 5-3-1, just as the BBWAA does. You may post all your ballots in the same comment, or you may vote in separate comments. You are not required to vote in all elections; only vote in the ones you would like to vote in. You may make vote changes, if the discussion so moves you. If you change your vote, please do so in a new comment, not as a reply to your original comment (it’s a lot easier to find new comments than replies to old ones). Please don’t vote strategically; we’re trying to get the best result, not to manipulate the vote totals based on what others have done . Voting will remain open about one week.

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RockInTheHall
RockInTheHall
6 years ago

Who, me? What?!?

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
6 years ago
Reply to  RockInTheHall

Whoever wrote this, you are hilarious, and you make me happy.

Dan McCloskey
6 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

It was me, the real RockInTheHall (aka Dan McCloskey). I vaguely remember voting as RockInTheHall as well as myself for something, but I think it was something really important, like Tim Raines’ Circle of Greats vote. Am I right?

no statistician but
no statistician but
6 years ago

Rookie of the Year—an award I don’t much like. It lumps together players of all ages, first of all, since the only criterion is lack of prior experience in the Bigs. Sam Jethro won it at 33, which statistically used to be—maybe not anymore—the year most likely to be the last really good one in a longer career. All the same, a surprising number of winners have been 27 or older, taking advantage, perhaps, of a maturity that younger players competing against them for the award had in short supply. By my informal count, so I may have missed somebody,… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
6 years ago

I suppose you could look at it in two ways….15% as a predictor of greatness is not at all bad when you consider the total population of rookies that come up, or not picking the 85% of those who would be HOF.
How about a table with the career WAR of ROY? BTW, recent ROY’s seem to be a stronger cohort.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
6 years ago

I agree about the age gaps, but when you’re voting, all you can do is consider actual performance, not who you think will be a Hall of Famer. Now, should a 20 year old who had a slightly worse line than a 27 year old be given more weight because we know how the aging curve goes and we know that a 20 year old star is likely going to be a superstar, whereas lots of good 27 year olds will peter out quickly because they’ve already peaked? That I’m not sure about. To give one example, in 1994, Manny… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago

Nsb, you might be overthinking this one a bit.
Predictor of greatness? Who has ever said that that is what the award is about?

It is the award for the best rookie. Pretty straightforward. And I’m sure the guys who have won it felt great.

no statistician but
no statistician but
6 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Why not have a sophomore of the year award, or a best third year award? I disagree that there isn’t an element of expectation about the future in this award, or it wouldn’t be in existence. As for picking the best rookie, it very often hasn’t done that, not even in its initial year, when Larry Jansen’s season was really much better that Jackie Robinson’s. Further—a negative point I left out above—some years there simply aren’t any first year players who do much. In the MVP and CY votes, even in sparse years we can find fairly outstanding performances that… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
6 years ago

1963 Pete Rose won the ROY award and he isn’t ever going to make Cooperstown. 1964 Allen and Oliva won and had good careers but I don’t believe anyone from this class made the Hall 1965 Jim Lefebvre won over a more-deserving Joe Morgan who, obviously, made the Hall I guess this kind of stuff happens. Years ago, maybe in the 1985 Baseball Abstract annual, Bill James suggested Julio Franco would have the better career of Franco and Ron Kittle because he was younger (not so much in reality but Franco at one time was holding a 1961 birth certificate)… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago

AL ROY

1. Wendle (I believe there is an added value to super-utility guys that even the omniscient WAR doesn’t account for. Tony Phillips should be on that dopey ballot with Steinbrenner)

2. Sho Oh.

3. Gleyber. (21 year old SS.
———-

NL ROY

Miami is clearly rated as a terrible place to hit. Anderson and Bader had nearly identical OPS.
But their OPS+ are 115 & 106

It really is amazing how close Soto and Acuna are numbers. I’d give Acuna the edge for wheels and D.

1. Acuna

2. Buehler

3. Bader

Paul E
Paul E
6 years ago

1) Ohtani – Would have been an incredible season if not for the injury 2) Wendle – From Avon Grove (PA) HS – approximately 7.5 miles from where I sit and type. I guess I have to vote for him 3) Torres – The younger of the two Yankees 1) Acuna – more of a total package than Soto 2) Soto – that’s an incredible eye and patience (Mel Ott ?) 3) Anderson 1) Snitker – Wow, the Braves 2) Counsell – great year 3) Black 1) Melvin – nice surprise 2) Boone – the young guys really surprised 3)… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
6 years ago

Manager of the Year—according tho whom? The Sporting News began such an award in 1936—one winner per year through 1985, one per league since. The current ‘official’ award began only in 1983. The AP had one for awhile, too. But how do you evaluate managers—really? Won-lost record, improvement over previous season, outdoing the Pythagorean norm? What they do with their lineups, how they adjust in late innings in close games? To me it’s all pretty nebulous. Some may manage well but are betrayed by their players’ lack of talent. Some may win in spite of their own lack of talent,… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago

Okay, I’ll join you in the Curmudgeon Corner on this one.

Mike L
Mike L
6 years ago

NSB, Manager Mythology is a part of publicizing the sport (any sport), and the media loves to play it that way. The hero-worship is probably worse in football (especially college football) but it’s all of a piece…that every man can be a Lombardi

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
6 years ago

It is the dumbest award. Usually, people are just rewarded for doing “better than we thought.” The problem is, expectations vary from year to year. Honestly, Terry Francona is, for my money, probably the best manager in baseball. I don’t think that’s likely to change this year. I also don’t think I’ll be voting for him. It’s kind of like if they’d given the MVP to Mickey Mantle like 10 straight years. Might’ve been deserved, but it wouldn’t have been that interesting. And I say that as someone who’s voted for Trout a LOT of times in various internet awards… Read more »

mosc
mosc
6 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

By that criteria, which honestly seems equally relevant than any other criteria for the award I’ve ever heard, I’d probably vote for Maddon and Francona, yes. I think some of it is “being interesting for fans” when that may not actually help his team win games. For example I think Boone did exceedingly well for a rooking manager in NYC but he will never last because he is not interesting enough in a city that demands it.

Doug
Doug
6 years ago

My criterion would be the manager who got the most out of what he had to work with. Did that team’s players perform better than would be expected based on their past performance and, if so, did that level of performance translate into an expected or better win total. Pretty hard for a team to do those two things and not be well managed. Of course, that’s a lot easier to say than to measure, but if you see several players on a team having close to or career best years, or a return to form after a down year… Read more »

John
John
6 years ago

The most important thing a manager can do is not screw up all the smart stuff the front office did over the winter. Who was it that sais that? I think it was Sparky Anderson or Earl Weaver.

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
6 years ago

As Yogi once said when he was managing, “What makes a good manager? Good players.”

no statistician but
no statistician but
6 years ago

So. I’ve looked at some of the possible criteria in my previous comment about evaluation of managers, and the one guy who stands out on the basis of team results up and down the line has yet to be mentioned in this thread. Maybe I’m ignorant in the extreme: Seattle’s a long way off, and it’s a team I’ve never paid a bit of attention to, even when they rang up 116 wins that year. But— Scott Servais must have done something right or else the fates simply intervened. Last year the team was 78-84, expectation 79-83. This year they… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
6 years ago

Let’s get it over with.

NL
1) Acuna
2) Buehler
3) Soto

AL
1) Ohtani
2) Wendle
3) Keller

NL
1) Counsell
2) Snitker
3) Roberts

AL
1) Servais
2) Cora
3) Melvin

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
6 years ago

Here’s my vote. I’m only voting for ROYs.

AL
1) Ohtani
2) Andujar
3) Torres

NL

1)Acuna
2) Soto
3) Buehler

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago

The book is closed on Chase Utley.
Hall of Fame?
Circle of Greats?

Among our inductees, he has a very low total of plate appearances to go with his 65.4 WAR.
Disincluding Catchers, and guys who lost time to military and segregation:

8220 … Grich
8030 … Larry Walker
7863 … Utley
6676 … HR Baker

Baker lost a season to a contract dispute, and another to the death of his wife.

no statistician but
no statistician but
6 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo: Utley’s glory days are so far in the past in baseball terms that I had to look up his record for a refresher. He was certainly at the heart of the minor Phillies dynasty of the 2000s into 2012, but so was Rollins. Teammates Rollins and Howard won MVPs, but Utley never came close to that recognition, presumably doing good by stealth. A rather large chunk of his WAR total comes from dWAR, notably the 3.5 figure from 2008. In 2005 the Phillies infield registered 0.7 dWar from Howard, 2.7 from Utley, 2.7 from Rollins, and 2.0 from Bell.… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
6 years ago

Good comment, Voomo. I suspect he will get votes in five years, although his career may fade somewhat in people’s memories.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Anyone understand why all the trade boards are saying that Cleveland is interested in shopping Kluber and Carrasco?
Makes no sense to me. They both have 3 years left on their contracts, and Cleveland is a contender.
Sure they can get a haul, but what is more valuable than an Ace?

mosc
mosc
6 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Supposedly they can’t sustain their payroll near the cap they have to lower it or risk insolvency. Even winning their division, Cleveland baseball interest is low. They seem to lose fans to the Reds, Pirates, Cubs, and White Sox even in their own town.

I don’t know how much of it is eye wash, to use Cone’s phrase, but supposedly they’re looking at $150M max for a team payroll and that means cuts.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago
Reply to  mosc

I see. That makes sense.
Still, Id try to move Encarnacion, Kipnis, Hand, Gomes, Salazar, and Alonso before Kluber and Carrasco.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
6 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

I’m hoping they’re ‘listening’ in the same way that the Nationals were ‘listening’ on Harper prior to the break, but sadly the Dolans might just be broke. They’ve taken a lot of crap over the years for being cheap but the fact is that they’ve massively upped payroll in the past few years, and as mosc noted, it hasn’t done all that much for attendance. The Tribe has been to a WS, had a 22 game winning streak, and made the playoffs three straight years – at this point I don’t know what more they can do to get fans.… Read more »

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
6 years ago

All that being said, I’m not sure how much payroll they really have to clear. Brantley, Allen and Miller leaving already freed up $30 million. If the hard cap for them is $150m, they’re still well under that – problem is they can’t afford much beyond bargain basement FAs. Luckily they don’t need very much, but to compete with the superteams some bullpen arms and a corner OF bat would certainly help, and we just don’t have the cash to pursue either one. It’s going to have to be a glove-first OF and a patchwork BP.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago

First move should be to allow everybody in the greater Cleveland area to suggest and vote for a new team nickname. That would generate interest and investment and make things feel fresh .

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
6 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

I disagree – I think fan backlash would overwhelm any positive gains from making the fans ‘feel involved.’ I hate to even think it because I live and die Indians baseball, but I think their days in Cleveland may be numbered. It’s so frustrating just overhearing casual fans who still won’t let go of the 90’s, even though the teams the past three seasons have been every bit as good as the 90’s squads, outside of the 1995 team which was a once in a generation assemblage of talent and it’s hard to expect that kind of success again. There’s… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago

Fan backlash from what? That folks are attached to the “indians’ name? Interesting. Part of what I find amazing about that 1995 team is that with Thome, Belle, and Manny having extraordinary years, Omar Visquel was the number 2 hitter. Baerga was the 3-man, which isnt so crazy given his previous record. It was both Manny and Thome’s first full-full seasons. They batted 6th and 7th. Does that team hold the record for the most players with at least 287 career home runs? 612 … Thome 555 … Manny 504 … Eddie Murray 465 … Dave Winfield 381 … Albert… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
6 years ago

WAR , 2B (70% G), ages 26-30 1 Rogers Hornsby 43.5 2 Chase Utley 39.7 3 Eddie Collins 39.5 4 Joe Morgan 36.2 5 Robinson Cano 34.6 6 Rod Carew 34.6 7 Nap Lajoie 33.2 8 Frankie Frisch 29.4 9 Chuck Knoblauch 28.4 10 Dustin Pedroia 27.2 oWAR, same parameters as above 1 Rogers Hornsby 43.8 2 Eddie Collins 36.8 3 Joe Morgan 33.9 4 Rod Carew 33.4 5 Nap Lajoie 31.6 6 Robinson Cano 30.6 7 Chase Utley 29.4 8 Chuck Knoblauch 26.7 9 Craig Biggio 26.6 10 Charlie Gehringer 24.6 Voom, Utley gets a huge bump in his… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
6 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Re: Ryan Howard – I have a friend who’s a big Phillies fan. I am a big Brewers fan. We had a LOT of arguments in that era as to whose bulky, defense-avoidant first baseman was the more valuable player. He seemed to (usually) have the advantage in counting stats in his favor, but I think Fielder was actually the better player, and I believe the sabermetric numbers (beyond WAR, even) bear that out (I also think Fielder, who could really move pretty well at that point in his career, was a much better… [ahem] fielder than Howard). OPS+, Fielder… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
6 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Doom,
It’s not Coors Field for inflating offensive stats but, yeah, Citizens Bank Ballpark is pretty bad. Neutralized career slashes:
.253/.337/.502 Howard (125 OPS+)
.278/.377/.497 Fielder (134 OPS+)
As far as fielding, it’s a case of putting lipstick on your sow of choice. I find it somewhat comical that the Prince was a vegetarian

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

All I remember of Prince’s fielding is his botching a routine catch in the first inning of the All-Star game, and the cameras cutting to his father in the stands, looking surly.

mosc
mosc
6 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Prince fell off a cliff defensively pretty quickly but as a young man, he moved pretty damn well. He also took a liking to Teixeira’s way of receiving which helped immensely over Howard (who was awful at everything other than hitting HR’s)

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Lowest ops+ in a season with 145+ RBI:

125 … Ryan Howard (2008)
127 … Andres Galarraga (Coors)
131 … Al Simmons
131 … Miguel Tejada
135 … Hardy Richardson (of the 1890 Players League)
(some RBI opportunities on a team with 426 stolen bases)

137 … Vern Stephens
141 … Johnny Bench
146 … Hal Trotsky
146 … Manny Ram
148 … Tommy Davis
149 … Juan Gone

mosc
mosc
6 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Here’s another wrinkle. Shifting was still fairly uncommon through Utley’s prime but the phillies shifted more than most. Utley was one of the first second basemen to regularly play on the SS side of the bag against certain right handed hitters. Metrics did not separate back them (do you remember Brett Lawrie being the greatest third basemen glove ever simply because they swung him over to the 1B side of second base against lefties?) and I’m not sure how much that “inflates” Utley’s glove. I live nearby, I saw him play plenty. He was excellent on a lot of little… Read more »

Doug
Doug
6 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Hall of Stats has Utley with a 136 rating, easily into HoF territory. Other second baseman with similar HoS ratings.
Whitaker – 145
Grich – 141
Frisch – 138
Sandberg – 130
Randolph – 124
Gordon – 118

Paul E
Paul E
6 years ago
Reply to  Doug

If we use B-R and neutralize their stats to the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies, we get: .275/.358/.463 with 1,882 H 1,096 R 254 HR 1,017 RBI for Utley .285/.345/.453 with 2,424 H 1,347 R 285 HR 1,081 RBI for Sandberg If we combine the two we get Chase & Sandberg – not quite the coffee maker of old and a current subsidiary of Sara Lee. But, I digress. I have to believe Sandberg was the better base stealer and hit with more power in his prime. By the same token, who knows what kind of numbers Utley may have amassed if… Read more »

Doug
Doug
6 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Hall of Stats has Utley with 172 Batting runs and 141 Fielding runs (and 113 runs for baserunning, DP and position).

Paul E
Paul E
6 years ago
Reply to  Doug

So, HoS is saying Utley was a better base runner than Sandberg and a better fielder. “Geeze, it’s a pleasure to meet you, Mr. Utley.”

mosc
mosc
6 years ago

1 Torres
2 Ohtani
3 Andujar

1 Acuna
2 Soto
3 Buehler. Buehler?

I don’t have a manager of the year preference. I think manager’s impacts are generally over-hyped in the modern era. Especially in today’s game, it’s a big staff of people and the big league staff works more intimiately with GM’s and the farm system folks.

Doug
Doug
6 years ago

My manager picks.

1. Melvin
2. Cash
3. Cora

1. Snitker
2. Conine
3. Black

Paul E
Paul E
6 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug,
we all seemed to have forgotten about Cash in the AL despite a great job….but is “Conine” really supposed to be “Counsell”

Doug
Doug
6 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Indeed, it was meant to be Counsell. Don’t know where Conine came from (channeling ’97 Marlins, I guess).

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago

I wasn’t going to do managers, but Im not quite old enough to be a curmudgeon all of the time.

1. Kevin Cash (the balls and freedom to innovate and make it work)
2. Bob Melvin (13 SP with at least 5 starts, and a payroll only higher than Cash’s)
3. Cora

1. Don Mattingly (he should get some recognition for coming to work)
2. Counsell (with a nod to his GM)
3. Bud Black

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
6 years ago

I’m sitting this one out — I just don’t track the season in a way that gives me the background for these votes — but I logged on after thinking about the early votes here to ask why no one had proposed Cash for Manager of the Year. I see that Doug and Voomo have already made that question irrelevant. I don’t think Cash’s approach is good for baseball, but it seemed to be good for the Rays, which is all he’s paid to consider.

Mike L
Mike L
6 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

I’m with Bob on this. I usually sit out the re-votes of these awards anyway, and I don’t feel I have enough granular info to contribute. And I’m definitely with him on Cash–both sides of it. Really striking that Tampa had only 5 players with more than 96 games, and only two pitchers with more than 96 IP. If that’s the direction of the game, it’s really boring.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
6 years ago

I just realized two things: 1.) I never posted my votes, and 2.) I never set a date for this to close. Let’s try to get all our votes in my Sunday night, if you’re still considering posting one. So, I’ll post my votes now. NL ROY: 1. Ronald Acuna – 2. Juan Soto – 3. Harrison Bader – HM: What more can you say about Walker Buehler? He had a really great year, and composed himself like a veteran. Looks like he’ll have a nice career ahead of him. AL ROY: 1. Shohei Ohtani – 2. Gleyber Torres –… Read more »

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
6 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Homer vote? well, they give each city in the league two votes if they can fill them. In 1998, Mark McGwire had 70 homeruns and only two first-place MVP votes — both from St Louis writers.

Josh Davis
Josh Davis
6 years ago

NL ROY
1. Acuna
2. Soto
3. Buehler

AL ROY
1. Ohtani
2. Andujar
3. Torres

NL MOY
1. Snitker
2. Black
3. Counsell

AL MOY
1. Melvin
2. Cora
3. Cash

no statistician but
no statistician but
6 years ago

Any comment on the official CYA voting?

If the writers didn’t care about W-L for deGrom, they must have been swayed solely by WAR, don’t you think, since Snell had many Ws and a kind of rigged WAR. But the AL was a turkey shoot.

no statistician but
no statistician but
6 years ago

Actually, now that I’ve looked, deGrom’s WAR wasn’t the highest, so the vote seems even more unlikely—not that he won so much as the 29 firsts.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
6 years ago

Actually, deGrom did have the highest WAR – on Fangraphs, anyway. But I kinda doubt the BBWAA is made up of guys who consulted that site for their votes. Most likely, they actually watched him pitch, and between that and the ERA, figured he deserved it.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago

Why is Snell’s WAR rigged? He had roughly the same park factors and defense as Verlander. Verlander pitched 35 more innings, yes. And as for him going deeper into games, Ver faced 26 more batters after the sixth inning.

And Verlander’s ERA in the sixth and seventh inning was 4.80 and 4.65.
Snell was 2.18 and 2.61
He wiped out lefties to a .413 ops.

You may not like the direction that Kevin Cash moved baseball in terms of pitcher use, but a 1.89 RA with three unearned runs is legit.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
6 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo, On Verlander’s late-inning ERA, let’s not blow off the fact that he had an 0.00 RA in 4.2 IP covering the 8th and 9th (Snell also had an 0.00 RA, but it covered only 1.0 IP in the 8th). Even so, I found you “late” inning ERA comparison a good argument for Snell, given the issue of his short starts. No one is arguing that Snell’s numbers are not superior, and Verlander was not the kind of workhorse he once was. But what I think nsb means by “rigged” was that Cash pulled Snell before he got into trouble,… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
6 years ago

nsb, the “new orthodoxy” for the BBWAA seems to be ERA, rather than wins. I think that pretty much explains it. As for Snell, I think it’s pretty well-tested that, if you lead in both ERA and Wins, the voters are going to go for you. I recall thinking that David Price didn’t deserve the award he won, but he led in both of those categories, so there wasn’t really any other way that was gonna go.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
6 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I think there was never any real doubt, but I was glad to see your guy get the NL MVP, Doom. He earned it. It should have unanimous, but at least the missing vote went to deGrom, rather than to another hitter with an inferior record. Converting apples and oranges can yield some odd calculations, but no hitter could compete with Yelich this year.

Mike L
Mike L
6 years ago

Good morning, friends. I thought I’d share a Bill James tweet. “If people ever decide that a given measurement–WAR or Win Shares or whatever it is–if people ever decide that a measurement is perfect and should be assumed correct, then analysis is dead. At that point there would be nowhere else for us to go.”

Paul E
Paul E
6 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Mike L
I believe when confronted with the possibility of a stat that was superior to all others as a measurement of performance James indicated (years ago – in the dark ages before Twitter) something along the order of “we’ll just have to come up with another one.”

Mike L
Mike L
6 years ago

Question for Doug. The new HOF ballot is just out…can we start a post on the topic? Last year, partially based on conversations on HHS, I wrote a piece on HOF voting for 3Quarksdaily.com. I don’t plan to do it again, but the thoughtful discussions by the HHS commenters were invaluable, and I’d like to see them continue here. It continues to be a packed ballot.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
6 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Definitely would like to have a discussion about that.

Meanwhile, the rich just get richer….Paxton to the Yanks. But the Mariners pick up Justus Sheffield in the deal.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
6 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

I agree with Mike. There are 34 names on the full ballot (newbies and . . . olderbies) and two months to the announcement of results. Voters have to submit ballots by Dec. 31, and we certainly want them to have plenty of time to read and reflect on the views of the influential HHS community. (Right?) More to the point, this a seriously fun exercise that may draw back some of our missing regulars and warm us up for the CoG round to come. And it’s going to require real effort to make sure Rick Ankiel is enshrined in… Read more »

Doug
Doug
6 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Yes, will get that up as soon as I can (have a lot on the go right now). Also working on a McCovey piece.

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
6 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Looking forward to both, Doug. A good time, perhaps, to thank you once again for all your work sustaining this site . . . after all, where I’m sitting and typing now thanksgiving has just become the order of the day.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
6 years ago

Results! Sorry for not posting these for a long time; my wife’s grandmother passed away, work has been busy, and I’ve been paying too much attention to the chess world championships. As always, I’ll list vote points, then first place votes in parentheses. Without further ado: NL ROY: 1. Ronald Acuna, 36 (7) 2. Juan Soto, 19 3. Walker Buehler, 14 (1) 4. Harrison Bader, 2 5. Brian Anderson, 1 Only Acuna was named on all 8 ballots. Bader and Anderson were only given third-place nods, therefore the other three really separated themselves from the pack. Richard Chester, mosc, and… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)
Bob Eno (epm)
6 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Good series of posts, Doom. Sorry your family suffered a loss. If you’re galvanized by the chess match, I can understand why you’ve expressed less alarm at pure-TTO baseball than some of us. You must have such a keen eye for fine detail that the satisfaction of seeing a ball in play or a game actually won is insignificant. In baseball terms, it looks to me as though the chess competitors are effectively in a scoreless tie after 90 innings, with maybe only four or five real scoring threats having been foiled. I know where I’d be if it were… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
6 years ago
Reply to  Bob Eno (epm)

Thanks for the condolences, Bob. On the one hand, my interest in this particular chess match is that it HAS been so even – the same way that an awful lot of people think that 1991 Game 7 is the very best baseball has to offer… and other people will see 9.5 boring innings of nothing happening. It’s all in your perspective on the thing. I see two titans playing at peak level (at least in 3-4 of the games, particularly Game 10), the unstoppable force and the immovable object, locked in a struggle. Their ELO ratings are only 3… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I don’t think the Stolen Bases are coming back. It was, by far, my favorite aspect of the game, both as a fan and as a player (in Babe Ruth league I was Joe Sewell at the plate, and Rickey on the bases). But… injuries. Stealing bases is dangerous, and baseball is rapidly moving toward protecting its investments. What we saw in the 80’s was an anomaly. Rickey was a freak of nature. And Raines carried cocaine in the back pocket on his uniform. That extracted quote from Machado last month that was used for clickbait? His full quote was… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
6 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

I mean, he still sounds like a knucklehead. And I personally prefer the player who will run full speed into a wall.

But players rarely get hurt on strikeouts, walks, or home runs