2018 Awards Voting: Cy Young

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Hello baseball fans, it’s Dr. Doom again! (I know it was just a little while since the last post, but it’s awards season!)

Today, we’re going to dive into BOTH Cy Young Awards! (As an aside, I kind of wish the award had a different name in each league: the Cy Young and the Walter Johnson, maybe. Yes, it could get confusing when talking about how many “pitcher of the year” awards people won, but it’s also always fun when you get to name awards after players and honor the game’s history. End of aside.)

Over in the AL, we have a mystery brewing: what do you do when the league’s best pitcher was a starter who didn’t qualify for rate awards? Technically, the day after Chris Sale made his last start, he was eligible for the ERA title, because he had pitched 158 innings through 158 games. Alas, four days later, he no longer qualified, so what do we do? If you’re not interested in Sale due to his failure to qualify, might I interest you in Trevor Bauer? Bauer led the AL with a 2.44 FIP (had he qualified, Sale would’ve led MLB with a 1.98 mark). Bauer also allowed HR at the lowest rate in the AL. Of course, he was injured, too. So maybe that leaves you with the triumvirate of Justin Verlander, Corey Kluber, and Blake Snell. Snell has the flashiest surface numbers (21-5, 1.89 ERA), league-leading 7.5 WAR and 5.6 H/9, but “only” 180.2 IP. Verlander has some great underlying indicators (see this article), and Kluber is a nice marriage of the two, with 20 wins, a league best 1.4 BB/9, and WHIP under 1.00. Whom do you prefer?

If you like relievers, I’d offer up Edwin Diaz and his 57 saves with a 208 ERA+ (and his FIP is even better than his minuscule ERA). Or, if you like being a little off-center, check out Jose Leclerc of the Rangers, with a 311 ERA+ (no typo) in 57.2 innings over 59 games. He’s not a closer, but he may have been the AL’s most effective reliever.

In the NL, a couple of starters really separated themselves from the pack: Max Scherzer with his 18-7 record, 2.53 ERA and MLB-leading 300 strikeouts (and the best pitcher in the world at season’s end, according to Bill James’ starting pitcher rankings); and Jacob deGrom with a 1.70 ERA and 269 K’s (deGrom did manage to finish a game better than .500, on the strength of wins in his final two games, both quality starts like the twenty-two they followed). Of course, those two studs were both “owned” this year by the Phillies’ Aaron Nola (defeating deGrom in May, and outpitching Scherzer twice in a week in late August), so, with his MLB-leading 10.5 WAR (third best since 1914 for 25-and-under hurlers), maybe he’s your choice. And, if you ignore actual runs allowed and just look at FIP, Patrick Corbin (3.15 ERA, 2.47 FIP, second to deGrom) has an argument that he’s right there with that group.

Maybe you noticed, like I did about a week before the end of the season, that Clayton Kershaw was Kershawing again – he just missed too much time to seriously compete for any awards. So perhaps you have a down-ballot vote for him. Or maybe you always like to give one to a reliever. Might I introduce you to Prodigal Brewer Jeremy Jeffress? (For those who don’t understand my Milwaukee-based reference, the Brewers have traded him away twice – once for Zack Greinke, and once with Jonathan Lucroy… and yet here he is again, finally living up to what we we Brewers fans hoped he’d one day become when Milwaukee drafted him like a thousand years ago.)

Rules: Vote by making a comment below and numbering your choices with 1 being the MOST preferred candidate, and 5 being your LEAST preferred candidate of your five choices. Please vote under only one screen name (I’m looking at you, RockInTheHall; it’s been five years, but I haven’t forgotten). Your ballots will be EXACTLY five places for each award, just as the BBWAA does. Scoring will be 7-4-3-2-1, just as the BBWAA does. You may post all your ballots in the same comment, or you may vote in separate comments. You are not required to vote in all elections; only vote in the ones you would like to vote in. You may make vote changes, if the discussion so moves you. If you change your vote, please do so in a new comment, not as a reply to your original comment (it’s a lot easier to find new comments than replies to old ones). Please don’t vote strategically; we’re trying to get the best result, not to manipulate the vote totals based on what others have done. Voting will remain open about one week.

Good luck!

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Dr. Doom

6 years ago

We’ll give this one a week-and-a-half again. Let’s go with Wednesday, 10/24 at 11:59:59 as the closing time for this round of voting.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

There are wrap-up/results posts at the bottom of the last one, if you’d like to see how the MVP posts wrapped up! Spoiler: we like Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich… and I’m sure you’re shocked by that.

no statistician but

6 years ago

After a preliminary inspection of the comprehensive stats supplied by Baseball Reference under CY Candidates, where in fact only 4 AL pitcher and 3 NL pitchers are deemed worthy of consideration, I have to say that, appearances to the contrary, the field looks rather thin. In the AL the superficially dominant eminence of Blake Snell’s statistical record lacks a deep foundation, as has been discussed here at some length. Chris Sale’s season isn’t justly described as having only 158 IPs, because, as of July 27, he had pitched 141 of them. Besides missing six weeks in two stints on the… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

I’ll post mine here on day one to get the discussion started. AL: 1. Trevor Bauer – If Bauer hadn’t been shut down in the middle of the year, he’d have run away with it. 2. Chris Sale – If Sale hadn’t been shut down in the middle of the year, he’d have run away with it. 3. Justin Verlander – I think there’s a universe in which Verlander was this year’s best pitcher (in the AL, anyway). You have to ignore his homers to do that, though, and I’m not willing to do that, even if I know that… Read more »

Josh Davis

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

A curiosity: If Snell’s innings count is too low to be ranked higher, than how come Sale garners your #2 vote with even fewer innings? I was moved by Mike L’s arguments against Snell in the MVP thread, but given that he still threw 23 more innings than Sale, I have trouble justifying Sale that high.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Josh Davis

I guess I was unclear. What I meant was, “at that level of effectiveness,” Snell’s innings count was too low. Yes, Snell had a better ERA+ than Sale. But if you calculate their FIP+, Sale’s at a 221, Snell’s at a 140. I like to balance the two; that gives Sale an overall effectiveness of 214, with Snell at 180. Don’t get me wrong, 180 is great… but it’s not 214. And 22 extra innings pitched does not make up for a 34 percentage point difference in effectiveness. FIP says that Verlander and Snell were, effectively, the same pitcher (144… Read more »

Author

Doug

6 years ago

A five man ballot is a lot more manageable than trying to thoughtfully fill out the 10 man MVP ballot. My bias is to pitchers who pitched all, or mostly all, of the season (sorry, Chris Sale). So, here goes. AL 1. Snell. He has the numbers (especially his historically good 5.6 H/9) and was especially valuable to a team that used a traditional starter in only two-thirds of its games. Snell’s 1.66 ERA against .500+ teams is the 10th best mark since 1908 in qualified seasons with 50% of IP against such teams, and includes a 9-2 record in… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

I’m curious why Trevor Bauer gets a place on your ballot while Chris Sale does not. Now, it’s true that Bauer qualified and Sale did not, but in terms of time missed, they were both gone about the same amount of time (in terms of days, not innings). I, too, have Bauer ahead of Sale, but I’m curious why Sale’s performance wasn’t good enough to at least earn a down-ballot spot.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Unnecessary Brewers-related interruption:
Poor Yasmani Grandal. Yikes. I feel bad for the guy. Not bad enough that I wish he’d gotten a hit last night with the bases loaded, but still… I feel bad for the guy.
Orlando Arcia is suddenly Alex Rodriguez. OK. We all expected that.
Christian Yelich’s bat has gone cold. It had to happen. He still has a .357 OBP in this Dodger series, because they’re not really giving him anything to hit.
I feel very lucky that the Brewers took that one last night. Two to go!

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

I feel bad for him too. Tough to be booed by your home fans in the post-season.

But, may be better for him and the team if Barnes takes over at this point.

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

For my list, I considered only starters, and I applied the combination of factors I used in working through the MVP issue for pitchers. ERA+ and Average Game Score provide general quality indicators, IP and IP/Game Started indicate the degree of burden that contenders assumed, and the IP/GS confronts the Snell problem we’ve been discussing – at what point does a starter assume so little of the per game burden that he no longer matches the profile of what we traditionally mean by “starter.” Because few IP and low IP/GS may or may not reflect the added strain of assuming… Read more »

no statistician but

6 years ago

It will be interesting to see how the official CYA voting turns out—if the sportswriters buy into the surface narratives of Snell and deGrom (i.e., WAR and ERA+ for a pitcher with manufactured luck and a pitcher with very little) or if they look beyond at other pitchers’ records. To me the AL is particularly messy because no one had a particularly outstanding year, Snell’s hyped stats notwithstanding. As mentioned in an earlier comment, Sale went missing for over six weeks and wasn’t a factor for another two or three. Kluber 2018 was not a continuation of Kluber 2017; the… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Some research: The first Aaron was Aaron Clapp in 1879, but he played only one season. The first real career for an Aaron belonged to Aaron Boone (again, if we’re only talkinfirst st names; there was a decent player with Aaron as a last name, too). The first Kyle is a little harder. Skinny Graham (1924-1929) had a real career and Kyle as a given mange, but is listed in encyclopedias as “Skinny” every time (to my knowledge, at least). That makes Kyle Abbott (1991-1996) the first Kyle. I didn’t look up Max because I thought of Max Carey right… Read more »

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Doom, on the relative lack of Aaron and Jacob, I think what you need to take into account is that neither of those names were used with any frequency in the general population. In 1918, Aaron was 196th, and I couldn’t find Jacob in the top 1000th. Probably most parents were traumatized by Dickens “Jacob Marley was dead….”

no statistician but

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Just came across Aaron Robinson in the 1940s-50s, lost the Yankee catching job to Yogi. What I was pursuing in a haphazard way was players with genuine nicknames, not just diminutives or plays on their real names like Jo-Jo. In 1937 I found without looking very hard, so I may have missed a few, 31 roster players who went by nicknames in the NL and 34 in the AL, The Tigers leading both leagues with 7, including the redoubtable Boots Poffenberger, a fifth starter who went 10-5. Skip forward to 2007 and the 16 team NL: 7, four of them… Read more »

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Ah yes, Boots Poffenberger (a childhood nickname). His major league career was over before he turned 24, but he certainly made a name for himself during his short career, mostly for his colorful antics off the field. Check out his SABR biography.

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

One more: Signers of the Declaration of Independence, sorted by name: Abraham Clark, Arthur Middleton, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, Button Gwinnett, Benjamin Harrison, Carter Braxton, Caesar Rodney, Charles Carroll, Edward Rutledge, Elbridge Gerry, Francis Lewis, Francis Lightfoot Lee, Francis Hopkinson, James Smith, James Wilson, John Adams, John Hancock, John Witherspoon, John Hart, John Morton, John Penn, Josiah Bartlett, George Clymer, George Taylor, George Ross, George Read, George Wythe, George Walton, Joseph Hewes, Lewis Morris, Lyman Hall, Matthew Thornton, Oliver Wolcott, Philip Livingston, Richard Henry Lee, Robert Treat Paine, Roger Sherman, Richard Stockton, Robert Morris, Samuel Adams, , Stephen Hopkins, Samuel… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Mike L, Probably my own visions of those names is influenced by the fact that I grew up in an area that was largely Jewish, which means I knew lots of Baby Boomers (and older!) individuals with those names. But then, that’s a very small segment of the US poplulation overall, and you’ll always find communities in which certain names are so prevalent as to seem universal even if, outside that community, they basically don’t exist. As for your other list, the “Josiah Bartlett” on the Declaration, it was implied (if not explicitly stated) that Jed Bartlet on the show… Read more »

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

On West Wing, then-Governor Jed Bartlet brags to Leo about how he won 63% of the vote in his State….to which Leo responds along the lines of “Big deal, considering your ancestors founded it”
Still around. Still the sanest place in town. Other baseball sites comments look like political sites comments.

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Mike L
Martin Sheen still thinks he’s the President…..

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Paul…..it could work. Sheen was born in Dayton (Ohio is a bellwether state). Parents were Irish and Spanish legal immigrants, so you might have cross-cultural appeal and blue collar. He is on the short side, a negative, but good on camera. Good hair. Polio survivor. Played both JFK and RFK. Tanned and ready.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

He’ll be 80 at the next election. A little old, no? Bob Dole (73) and John McCain (72) are the only people over 70 to run (non-re-election). I get that you were jesting, but that seems like a pretty strong negative, particularly given his MS – no wait, that was the president he played, not actually Sheen himself. Of course, it looks like Bernie Sanders may be giving it another go, and he’s basically the same age as Sheen, so what do I know?

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

It’s a good point, but of course I don’t know how many potential candidates the Democrats have who will be under 80….

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Right……and the Indian woman from Massachusetts could be his VP

Richard Chester

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

From 1871-1992 there were 4 players with a first name of Aaron. Since then there have been 36 more.

Paul E

6 years ago

Thanks to all for their research. NL – no doubt about the top 3 1) Nola – was consistent all year and the source of the false narrative that the mediocre Phillies were contenders 2) deGrom – fantastic year….35 years ago we wouldn’t have noticed due to the W-L bias 3) Scherzer- typical Scherzer season…kind of faded in second half 4) Freeland – impressive home ERA in the cow pasture 5) Corbin – really disappointed the way AZ faded. But, Corbin was great AL 1) Verlander – nobody really has a clear edge. But, I really dig his wife 2)… Read more »

CursedClevelander

6 years ago

I think the biggest compliment that can be paid to Corey Kluber is that no one is particularly impressed by a season of 151 ERA+, a .991 WHIP, and a 6.53 K/BB ratio in a league leading 215 innings because like other indisputable top tier pitchers (Scherzer, Kershaw, Verlander) it’s simply what is expected of him now.

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to CursedClevelander

Well said, CC.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

The Hidden Nola Advantage: I’ve been trying to figure it out: why does baseball-reference love Aaron Nola SO much? Jacob deGrom was better by basically every conceivable measure, both at a macro level and a game level – ERA, FIP, innings, strikeouts, HR, BB, etc., etc. Yes, deGrom had the better home park and Nola had the worse defense… that should tighten thing a little. But not enough for them to FLIP, I wouldn’t think. And that’s when I discovered it. While looking at the two of them, I noticed that the ERA gap (0.67) was pretty large: it works… Read more »

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Doom, ” “But we have better ways of adjusting for defense than arbitrary decisions; we don’t HAVE to have opinions and judgment calls in baseball – it is, in fact, they opposite of all other baseball statistics, in that it doesn’t present a “fact,” but rather an “opinion.” Depending on the official scorer, calls can be very different.” ” By the same token, when Beltre ranges to his right and makes a play in the hole, somebody at Baseball Information Systems makes a judgment call that the play witnessed was either routine or extraordinary. And, if you’ve got a league… Read more »

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Actually, “Beltre ranges to his LEFT and makes a play in the hole”….ughhhh

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Well, if you assume that BIS data is the best way to adjust for defense, then you’re right. When you assume that UZR or TZ or DRA is doing a better job, then that works, too. Or a simple adjustment like looking at the difference between ground balls and fly balls (which is not really a judgment call, I don’t think) can cover for it. And, frankly, once the WAR systems are able to use StatCast data, this is all going to be pretty much moot, because we’re going to be able to see how likely a player was to… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Also, Paul, excellent point on the number of great defensive players out there these days: it does sometimes seem like the spectacular is routine. There are a lot of great players out there!

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

And, how about the 3b with a cannon arm who nails the runner by a whisker? Is he going to get credit for that in a league full of guys who throw 90+ MPH across the diamond?
And, lastly, somebody has to ‘program’ statcast to interpret the play and that “GIGO” is conjecture/opinion as well, no?

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Doom, I think you’re making an error in your analysis. Baseball stats are loaded with results of “opinions,” rather than “facts.” Every pitch called by an umpire, other than a swinging strike/foul is the result of an opinion (and we can now watch at home and see how often those opinions are — and presumably have always been — erroneous). Every checked swing, HBP, fair/foul calls, fielder/runner interference calls, balks, etc., etc. — all these are the results of umpire opinions. This is fully baked into the stats for MLB’s first century and more. From the point that instant replay… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

I’m only going to respond to one aspect of this, because you wrote a very long (and well-written) comment: fact vs. opinion. You bring up balls and strikes. Yes, it’s true that balls and strikes are opinions… or rather, they’re facts in which the umpires imperfect judgment, which could be construed (not imprecisely) as opinion, is factored into the game. That’s true. However, it’s also incomplete. It’s incomplete because the umpires opinion becomes a fact once that judgment is made. Let’s say it’s a 3-2 count on Andrew Benintendi. He doesn’t swing at the last pitch, as it was 2… Read more »

Author

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Even worse is the error that leads eventually, but not immediately, to a run. In that situation, the further assumption made in deciding whether subsequent runs are earned is that everything that followed the error would also have followed in exactly the same way even if the error hadn’t occurred. An absurd assumption, but one that gets baked into a pitcher’s ERA. I would prefer to have RA become the standard measuring stick, with a new metric, call it Adjusted RA, that apportions unearned runs among a team’s pitchers based on a combination of workload, quality of pitching and team… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Thanks to Doom for the thoughtful response, and Doug for adding to it. In the current age, the meaning of “fact” tends to wobble a lot, but in the usage I prefer, an umpire’s decision cannot alter the fact of what occurred on the field, it just creates some new facts: what the umpire’s call was and what the game record shall be. I don’t think the sentence, “The pitcher threw a strike but the umpire called it a ball” lacks any coherence, because I think most people would agree that the fact of the pitch location is one thing… Read more »

Author

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

Here are the links to the Unearned Runs research posts.
Part 1
Part 2

There is a link in Part 2 to a spreadsheet on Google Drive. If you find that the link does not work for you, the spreadsheet may be downloaded here.

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

Thanks, Doug. This looks like great stuff — I’m sorry I seem to have been on an HHS break when you posted it. I’ll be working through it over the next few days (starting tonight!).

Doug

6 years ago

The Dodgers’ win in game 4 was the first of this post-season without an extra-base hit. Only one such post-season game in 2017 and 2016, and none in 2015. Most such games in a post-season is 3, in 2012 and 1918.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

To Doug’s point, not only were there not extra base hits; there were no extra base hits on agame-and-a-half, because that game went 13 innings.

After tonight’s game/slaughter and even after letting my temper cool, I do want to say that I think Manny Machado should’ve at least been ejected, if not suspended, due to attempting to injure Jesus Aguilar in Game 4. I find it very upsetting.

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Doom, I think it will take something totally egregious, and more, for someone to get ejected in the playoffs. The league (and TV) certainly has a desire to see players play.

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

I think that’s correct. Mike. But as a Dodger fan and a long-time admirer of Machado’s skills, I feel his conduct on the field in this series is flattening the excitement of winning, and I’m sympathetic to Doom’s complaint. That said, I don’t think the object of Machado’s contact with Aguilar was to injure him. I think he was trying to push him off the bag, just as I think his late grab of Arcia’s leg at second the other day was an ill-timed and ill-executed attempt to break up the double play.

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

Bob, my reaction as well when Clemens threw the piece of the bat at Piazza in the 2000 WS. In fact, my reaction just about any time Clemens took the mound for the Yankees.

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Piazza vs Clemens 25 22 8 1 0 4 10 2 2 .364 .440 .955 1.395

Small sample size but, with 4 homers in 25 PA’s , I have to believe that the big Texan was a wee bit frustrated with the catcher’s success against him. The above stats are from b-ref and, I believe, regular season only.

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

sorry….those stats include post-season

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

At the very least, I think there should be a hearing for Machado to explain his actions, and then a decision on a possible suspension. But, don’t think it’s something that an umpire can or should address in the moment.

Evidently, Machado felt Aguilar was showing him up by remaining on the bag after taking the throw. Don’t understand why he would think that, and certainly no excuse for attempting to injure another player. But, it was odd that Aguilar remained on the bag since first basemen usually pop off the bag the instant they make the catch.

Paul E

6 years ago

…no complaints from this crowd regarding Joe West interjecting himself into the BRS-HOU game like a WWE professional wrestling manager?

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

I think the replay officials were correct in letting the call stand, as there really wasn’t definitive video showing whether Betts reached into the crowd, or the crowd reached into the field of play. But, I don’t like the call on the field assuming the catch would have been made; that’s an awfully big assumption on a catch that was the furthest thing from a routine play. A safer and more defensible call would have been a double, as Betts prevented the ball going into the seats, which I think the replay confirmed as the ball appeared to hit his… Read more »

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

I don’t like the process much. If a fielder is interfered with within the “field” of course, fan interference. But reaching into the stands while fans are ostensibly trying to catch a home run ball? I’m less sanguine, particularly because we don’t apply a empirical truth standard, but give the call on the field by the umpire preference. Imagine this had happened at Fenway. Red Sox fan reaches for ball, “interferes” with Betts when Betts is clearly in stands, and turns what would have had to have been a great play into an automatic out.

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Without the perfect angle, the play can be argued endlessly, but as I watched camera angle after camera angle, it seemed to me that the only fan who might have reached over the fence was one who did not come into contact with Betts at all (the guy in white gripping the wall). The fans who did come into contact with Betts appear to me to be fans whom Betts came into contact with. As I understand the rule, when you reach into the stands there is no expectation that you have “right of way.” So, great as Betts’ play… Read more »

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

Bob, good points. I have no idea whether Betts would have caught the ball but for the contact, but the interference call makes that moot. Of course, the only way around this is something that cannot happen–an eight foot empty zone between the wall and the stands.

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

The ball is still alive even if a fielder or his equipment has made contact with a fan.

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

In that case, I don’t see any reason why your proposed solution wouldn’t have been the right call.

Richard Chester

6 years ago

Here are my lists. And a special thanks t Bob Eno for making my job easier.

1) Verlander
2) Snell
3) Sale
4) Cole
5) Kluber

1) deGrom
2) Scherzer
3) Nola
4) Corbin
5) Freeland

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Thanks, Richard. Usually it’s the other way round.

Author

Doug

6 years ago

Congrats to the Red Sox for dethroning the champs. Other teams to win games 3-5 on the road in an LCS: 1991 Twins, 1996 Yankees and 2005 White Sox. All three went on to win the World Series.

no statistician but

6 years ago

Here are some stats, a whole lot of stats, from two NL pitchers in 2018: GS: 33—32 IP: 200—200.2 H: 162—186 R: 70—70 ER: 70—63 HR: 15—16 BB: 48—29 SO: 246—146 BF: 800—808 ERA+: 137—137 FIP: 2.47—3.28 WHIP: 1.050—1.071 H9: 7.3—8.3 BB9: 2.2—1.3 SO9: 11.1—6.5 SO/W: 5.13—5.03 W-L:11-7—18-4 W-L team: 17-16—24 ERA: 3.15—2.83 The two are so close in most categories that they are virtually identical. The first is far superior in strikeouts, FIP, and (un)earned runs and has an edge in H9 which he loses nearly all of in BB9. The second hold the lead in allowing (fewer) walks,… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Interesting… it seems to me that the guy who relied on his fielders to get outs an extra 100 times got those outs, and I don’t see how he deserves the credit for it over them. That’s my take on it.

no statistician but

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Seems we’ve had this discussion before. Is the game pitcher vs. batter or team vs. team? It so happens that Corbin actually benefited far more by his team’s defense than Mikolas did—the Cards, in fact, had a retro fielding % of .978, making ten errors on balls in play behind the team ace, while Corbin suffered only one fielding flub when hitters connected against him. Some other fun facts: Corbin, a lefty, allowed 10 stolen bases; Mikolas, a righty, 2. Mikolas developed a 0-2 count against batsmen 247 times or 30.6 %, Corbin 212 times or 26.4%. 24% of the… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Certainly, we’ve had this discussion before. And I would argue, to your last point, that the reason we discuss a down-ballot Cy Young vote is that, well, it’s fun to discuss a down-ballot Cy Young vote. But as to the question of whose defense benefited them more, you’re welcome to believe that Jhonny Peralta and JJ Hardy were better defensive players than Ozzie Smith, but I just can’t buy that. I don’t see how fielding % is relevant. Mikolas faced 808 batters. He struck out 146, walked 29, and allowed 16 HR. That makes 617 balls in play. He allowed… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Your chart forgot to list Cardinals losses in Mikolas’ games. The team was 24-8 in his games. The records – both for the pitchers and the teams – were quite different. I think it’s also important to point out that Mikolas got 171 R of support in 32 games (5.34/G), while Corbin got 126 in 33 games (3.82/G), and that the run support alone, absent any actual difference in effectiveness, would basically describe their difference in record. Average NL teams this year scored 4.37 R/G. St. Louis played in parks in which runs were scored at 97% of that level,… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Well, I can’t say I was happy with how the NLCS ended. But I will say this was probably the most fun Brewers season I can remember. It was a lot of fun, and this season can’t be considered anything but a success. Expectations will be higher next year, but that’s next year’s problem. For now, it was a fun ride.

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Doom,
That 10/3/18 Powerball drawing foretold it all:
41 53 59 63 66 …..and the PB “3” might just indicate a 3rd WS winner in 2018 for the Dodgers after “59” and “63”? Should have bet the house.
In the words of Ronnie Isley, “You can’t fight the power”

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Doom, fantastic season anyway. As for what’s next, this Yankee fan looks at a Red Sox-Dodgers Series with as much enthusiasm as a Patriots-Cowboys one.

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

As a Dodger fan since the ‘50s I was naturally happy to see them win the pennant last night. But I’ve been captured by Doom’s enthusiasm and the Brewers’ team personality, and feel that if they’d extended their terrific run to the Series it would have been a better story.

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

I guess I just don’t get Counsell’s use of his pitching staff. Taking out your starters after a few innings, when they appear to still to be effective, just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I get that your best pitchers are in the bullpen, but as good as they are, after a team has seen them regularly for 5 or 6 games, they’re going to make better swings against them, regardlees of whether the pitchers are tired or not.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

I don’t get it either. I would’ve done things differently, but then, I wasn’t in the dugout, so I’m hoping that something I don’t know was affecting it.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

Thanks for the kind words, Bob!

Doug B

6 years ago

FYI – 1.89 is less than 1.98

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Doug B

I wrote this post about a week before the season ended, so some of the facts changed. I tried to update them all, but I guess I missed this one.

Doug B

6 years ago

Personally I would vote a guy named Blake in 1st and a guy named Blake in 2nd. It doesn’t matter which order to me. But Blake Treinen was historically awesome this season. Find all the guys in baseball history with 80+ IP and lower than 0.420 OPS against. It’s only been done one other time… ever. (Eric Gagne in 2003 when he won the Cy Young)

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Doug B

Please feel free to post a ballot, then! Anyone can vote. Deadline is 11:59:59 Wednesday night, so you have (and anyone else has) a couple days left to get a ballot posted!

Josh Davis

6 years ago

I’ve agonized over the AL Cy Young long enough…..Had a really tough time deciding between the dominant numbers of Snell versus the higher usage of Verlander. I’ve probably flipped my top two 6 times over the last week and if you ask me tomorrow I might switch back. It is hard to quantify how much more valuable Verlander’s 33.67 innings are. If Snell had pitched the same amount of innings as Verlander at the same quality as his first 180, he would have saved his team 15 more earned runs than JV. That seems pretty significant, and yet, the very… Read more »

Paul E

6 years ago

http://www.astroland.net/allrookielineup.html

Again, off the beaten path, however, I figured i’d post the above link. There has been a lot of discussion on this site on more than one occasion about the “youngest battery” and I think the two totaled less than 37 years in age (Milt Pappas and ?). But, interestingly enough, the Houston Astros starting lineup AVERAGED 19 years, 3 months on 9/27/1963 in a 10-3 loss to the Mets

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

The ? is 17 year-old Frank Zupo in 1957.

All 9 Houston starters in the 1963 game were under 22 years of age. Second most is 7 such starters, by Houston two days later. The next youngest lineup was 7 starters under age 23 by the Philadelphia A’s on Sep 10, 1919, when the A’s scored 6 times in the 9th inning to walk off the Tigers 6-5 (the other two A’s starters, aged 23 and 24, were both making their major league debuts, while Detroit fielded their regular lineup, including Cobb, Heilmann, Bobby Veach and Donie Bush).

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug–I wonder if modern service time considerations would discourage teams from giving too many rookies too much roster time, especially in what amounts to garbage time for bad teams?

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Probably true. Ironically, in the bonus baby days of the ’50s and ’60s, the opposite was true; rules then in place required teams to give their top young prospects a prescribed minimum playing time in order to hang onto them.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

I didn’t think the bonus baby rule actually required playing time, just roster space. Those may fundamentally amount to the same thing, since, why would a team use a roster space and then not use the player? But maybe I’m wrong about it and some amount of playing was necessary. Just not sure.

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

A few famous bonus babes: Four Hall of Famers: Kaline, Killer, Koufax, Catfish. But a lot of busts as well.

Paul E

6 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Mike L
And, I believe the Dodgers tried to hide bonus baby Roberto Clemente in the minors and ended up losing him in the Rule 5 draft

no statistician but

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Including Clemente there were 62 official bonus babies, by my count from information on the Baseball Almanac list. Out of the 62, five made the HOF, the four Mike L notes plus Roberto. of the remaining 57, these are the players who accumulated 10+ WAR: Johnny Antonelli—31.2 Lindy McDaniel—28.7 Bob Bailey—28.7 Clete Boyer—27.6 Billy O’Dell—22.5 John Romano—20.9 Moe Drabowski—19.9 Mike McCormick—17.3 Jim Pagliaroni—15.8 Joey Jay—15.6 The remaining 47? Only someone like me who was baseball crazy in the 1950s would recognize even a few of the names: Wayne Causey, Jerry Kindall, Von McDaniel, Lindy’s younger brother, Steve Boros, who managed… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Warning: long personal story/Bonus Baby digression/name-dropping post below. Only three Bonus Babies had $100K+ bonuses. The third-highest (the only bonus for exactly $100K) went to a fellow named John DeMerit. DeMerit went to Port Washington High School in Port Washington, WI. I grew up just around 30 miles from Port Washington; they were in our conference and we played them in every sport. John DeMerit had a classmate named Frank Gahan, who grew up to be a high school track coach. In fact, he became my high school track coach (for the throwers; I love throwing the shot, and have… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

I believe you’re right on the requirement, Doom, but not on the assumption that teams would play their bonus babies. In his two seasons on the roster, bonus baby Tom Qualters pitched a total of 0.1 innings. If you’re shaky on your knowledge of Qualters’ career, it’s because he fell into the trap many of the babies encountered — two years not only sitting on the bench, but foregoing any realistic opportunity to develop the skills that made you a pheenom prospect. Qualter’s hung up his spikes five years later with 50 IP and an 0-0 record. There was a… Read more »

no statistician but

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

As I’ve mentioned here on another occasion several years ago, as a teen in 1961 I was part of a group from my league invited to appear on a Chicago TV program in which big leaguers in town plus a Cub or two gave on-field hints to young players. In this instance the visiting player was Roberto Clemente and the two Cubs were Richie Ashburn in his post-Phillies years and Bob Will, who had a great minor league career, but not a great Major League one. We were lucky without knowing it, being there actually on the diamond of Wrigley… Read more »

Doug

6 years ago

Reply to Bob Eno (epm)

Didn’t realize the bonus babies had to stay on the roster for the whole season. Talk about a lose/lose situation: a roster spot given to a player who’s not ready and thus doesn’t play; and, as Bob mentions, those players languishing on the bench instead of developing their skills in the minors. Who dreamed that up?

Richard Chester

6 years ago

Reply to Doug

In 1954-55 the Yankees had bonus baby Frank Leja who had 19 G and 7 PA. And in 1955-56 they had Tom Carroll who had 50 G and 24 PA. Neither played again for them. So in 1955 the Yankees were essentially a 23 man team.

Richard Chester

6 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Tom Carroll is the youngest player to pinch run in a WS. It occurred in game 4 of the 1955 WS, his age was 19.014.

no statistician but

6 years ago

Reply to Paul E

That Houston lineup was fairly loaded, though nobody knew it at the time: A HOFer in Joe Morgan. A should-be-a HOFer: Jim Wynn. A seven-time All Star: Rusty Staub. A catcher, Jerry Grote, who made it to 4 World Series and was twice an All Star. Sonny Jackson at SS finished second in the ROY voting in 1966, although he faded fast. Aaron Pointer and Brock Davis? Well, they both did resurface for a while in the Bigs. Glenn Vaughan? His 9 games in ’63 constituted his career in the majors. Pitcher Jay Dahl made his debut in the game… Read more »

no statistician but

6 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

In contrast, the Connie Mack 1919 team had lesser players, the best career-wise being Jimmy Dykes, a steady infielder for the A’s during their revival in the Grove-Simmons-Foxx era and later the All-Star player-manager for the ChiSox. Chick Galloway and Joe Dugan had fairly long but undistinguished careers, and Al Wingo’s career year for Detroit in 1925 made him part of a .370+ BA starting outfield with Heilmann and Cobb. Mixed in with those three were Heinie Manush at .302 and Fats Fothergill at .353. With all this firepower in the year of the Yankees’ unexpected drop to 7th place… Read more »

Mike L

6 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

NSB, there’s still this game, from May 18, 1912 that was worth a look.
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/sports/baseball/ty-cobbs-outburst-led-to-notorious-game-in-1912.html
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHA/PHA191205180.shtml
Included 48 year old Deacon McGuire, who played in one game in 1912, one in 1910, two in 1908, and 7 in 1907.

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

NL Results! With a group of voters less intimidated by the 5-player threshold necessary for the Cy Young, we had better voter turnout in this election. We had 5 votes for NL MVP and 6 for AL MVP, but ticked up to 7 votes for each in the Cy Young balloting. Here are your NL results, with vote points listed first, followed by first-place votes in parentheses: 1. Jacob DeGrom, 43 (5) 2. Max Scherzer, 29 (1) 3. Aaron Nola, 26 (1) 4. Kyle Freeland, 10 5. Patrick Corbin, 7 6. Miles Mikolas, 3 7. Jameson Taillon, 1 The top… Read more »

Dr. Doom

6 years ago

AL Results! Here are your AL results, with vote points listed first, followed by first-place votes in parentheses: 1. Justin Verlander, 42 (5) 2. Blake Snell, 25 (1) 3. Corey Kluber, 17 4. Trevor Bauer, 13 (1) 5. Chris Sale, 11 6. Gerrit Cole, 8 7. Blake Treinen, 2 8. Luis Severino, 1 The top three finishers were all named on all 7 ballots. In the race for a consensus ballot, I’d have to go with nsb’s. His and mine named the top five, but both were out of order; nsb had it a lot closer, though, as he picked… Read more »

Bob Eno (epm)

6 years ago

Great exchanges on this string, both on and off topic. Thanks, Doom.