Redemption Round #9

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This Circle of Greats (COG) vote is not to induct anyone into the Circle, but only to select three players who will be restored back to the main ballot after having been previously dropped from eligibility. This ninth “redemption round” (we’ve been holding such redemption rounds interspersed among the regular voting rounds every tenth voting round or so) gives voters a chance to reconsider past candidates who have previously fallen off the regular induction ballots.

In this vote you may include on your three-man ballot any major league baseball player who was born between 1891 and 1970 and has not been elected to the Circle of Greats and is not currently on the 1890 COG ballot. As usual, you must vote for three and only three players to cast a qualifying ballot. The three players who appear on the most ballots will be restored to eligibility for the next regular, induction round of COG voting. If your personal favorite doesn’t come in the top three this time, do not despair — he will have one more chance in our last redemption round to be held ten or so rounds hence.

There are many players who are eligible for your votes in this redemption round. As an optional aid to your selection process, I’ve put together two lists, one for pitchers and one for everyday players, that include some stats for a substantial selection of relevant players: Redemption Round #9 Optional Player Lists. Both lists (the two lists are on separate sheets in the workbook) show the players who accumulated at least 25 Wins Above Replacement (baseball-reference version), ordered by WAR. Again, these spreadsheets represent entirely discretionary lists — your full options are as stated: all major leaguers born between 1891 and 1970 who have not been inducted into the COG and are not on the 1890 ballot that is also the subject of a vote this week.

The deadline to cast your ballots in this redemption round is Thursday night, July 16th at 11:59PM EDT. You can change your votes until 11:59PM EDT on Tuesday night, July 14th. You can keep track of the vote tally in this redemption round here: COG Redemption Round 9 Vote Tally.

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Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Goin’ back to my stand-bys, the guys I didn’t think got a fair shake:

Dave Stieb (who lost in a round in which he collected EIGHT votes, but in the only round in which we had 81 voters)

Jim Bunning (who was born in 1931, which featured four COG inductees [Mays, Mantle, Mathews, and Banks, plus Ken Boyer])

Don Drysdale (whose candidacy I just don’t understand faltering – I s’pose he got a clean shake, but I don’t get why he fell off)

bells

9 years ago

Well, I’ve been away from voting (and internet-land in general) for quite some time, but I’m back to regular internet access, and more importantly, not as frustrated with the functionality issues as I was the last time I posted here in April when it had been present every day in my life (that said, I haven’t caught up on the backlog of posts yet but the issues maybe haven’t been resolved yet so we shall see). Anyway, one of my regrets in not having the time to regularly visit this place was that I missed the last redemption round and… Read more »

David P

9 years ago

Reply to bells

Jamie Moyer had 8.6 WAR age 41+.

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to David P

But Satchel 8.4 more WAA 41+ than Moyer (+5.6 vs -2.8). You can’t blame Satchel for managers being over-fascinated with a below average lefty innings eater well past his prime. Satchel was a difference maker in his old age, in being a force to integrate baseball, and before that being a huge star of the negro leagues.

bells

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Thanks for the correction. I see my error – I don’t have a PI subscription, so to see all the names I have to do the trick of calling it up in descending order and then setting up the 18th-place result as the low end criteria and resetting it in ascending order (tip of the cap to Richard Chester for that advice long ago)… for some reason Moyer is ranked ahead of Faber in descending order (and so shows up as a blank name in 9th place) but behind in ascending order (so shows up again as a blank name… Read more »

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to bells

bells: Rerun your PI run using WAR = 5.16 as the low end criteria. That method will work with 18th, 19th or 20th place as the low end. Moyer’s WAR is actually 8.63 and Faber’s is 8.60.

When you did your PI run in descending order Dennis Martinez, Connie Marrero and Ted Lyons were tied for 18th, 19th and 20th places with WAR = 5.2. You then set WAR = 5.2 as the low end and reran the PI. Marrero’s and Lyon’s WARs are in the 5.16 to 5.19 range so they were cut out of your rerun.

David P

9 years ago

Reply to bells

Bells: But there’s one major difference between most of the players on your list and Paige. Paige had 2/3 of his innings as a reliever. Most of the others were starters. That sets up an apples and oranges comparison. In fact, I don’t see anyone else on the list who was used the way Paige was – mostly in relief with the occasional start and never pitching more than 138 innings in a single season. Obviously being successful post age 41 is hard. No doubt about it. But I’ll bet the number of pitchers who could do what Paige did… Read more »

bells

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Yeah, it really just comes down to whether you believe he belongs or not. It could go either way – I could respond by saying ‘given how little WAR relievers accumulate, the fact that he is on this list is more evidence in his favor’, or I could say ‘Walter Johnson couldn’t do what he did’ because he retired at age 39 and therefore didn’t accumulate any WAR after 41, which would obviously be impossible to prove/disprove and fairly pointless. What I mean is that, for example, there is no way to directly compare someone like Johnson and Paige based… Read more »

David P

9 years ago

Reply to bells

Bells: I think your first sentence pretty much sums things up. For myself, it’s too big of a leap of faith. I can vote for Campy cause I don’t have to make too many assumptions for him to be a top 10 catcher. Paige though requires me to make lots of assumptions that I’m just not comfortable making. Sure his age 42+ career looks good, potentially very good (his MLB debut was actually on his 42nd birthday!). But taking that and projecting backwards? I can’t do that. There’s just too much to fill in. Maybe he gets stuck in the… Read more »

bells

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Yeah I respect your decision, and will agree to disagree. For me, I feel confident projecting his earlier career because, well, he did have a 22-year career in the Negro Leagues, which I think was at a pretty close level to MLB in terms of talent, and he was their most famous and best player for many of those years. When I think about how good Negro Leaguers coming over were, like Robinson, Irvin, Doby, Aaron, Campy, Minoso… 8 NL MVPs between 1949 and 1959 were black players. I have no reason to believe that the talent level was so… Read more »

bstar

9 years ago

Reply to David P

I suspect a bigger reason why Paige isn’t getting a vote from virtually everyone is because of this sentence of yours, bells: “I guess you either are okay with voting for him or not, and if you are there is probably no doubt that he belongs, and if you’re not it’s not even up for discusssion.” Whether or not Satchel Paige was an all-time great isn’t really up for debate in my opinion. What IS up for debate, to me, is whether or not we are circumventing the rules established for this process, and, perhaps more importantly, whether or not… Read more »

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to David P

bstar @ 39 –

Excellent summary of the contra Paige position; thanks for saving me the need to write something similar.

I was planning on abstaining from this redemption round; we’ve picked through most of these players several times now, they’ve had their fair chances, and I don’t see any compelling candidates among the players who weren’t eligible for the last redemption round but are now.

But I may end up voting just to try to keep Paige off the main ballot; although this may well be a forlorn hope, since he’s already in the lead.

David P

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Bstar – Excellent point to which I will add the following. We have 20+ players on the ballot with more than 60 WAR. Yes, what happened to Paige and other Negro Leaguers was unfair. But isn’t it also unfair to those 20+ players who won’t get another shot at the COG, players who had legitimately great MLB careers, not speculative ones. And Bells, I don’t think the Negro League was even close to the talent of MLB. Granted there’s a lot of missing data and I haven’t looked at every season. But from what I’ve seen there were a handful… Read more »

bells

9 years ago

Reply to David P

@bstar – thank you for your thoughtful response. Clearly where we differ is your second point – I don’t see it as unfair to Josh Gibson et al to vote Paige, as they didn’t have an MLB career, but Paige did, which (I think I’ve mentioned a few times in this thread so pardon if it’s overkill to mention it again) makes it hard for me to ignore him. You say you can’t see it as fair to Gibson to vote for Paige, but from my perspective I can’t imagine how not voting for Paige is any fairer to Gibson.… Read more »

David P

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Bells: Thanks for the discussion as well. Two points: 1) Yes, I realize if Paige gets elected that opens another slot. But here’s the problem. Right now, Paige gets returned to the ballot and Player X doesn’t. That reduces Player X’s chances of being elected to the COG, perhaps down to zero if we never have another redemption round. Meanwhile, it increases the chances of all the other players on the ballot being elected to the COG. And there are other potential effects as well. When Paige is on the main ballot, he’ll draw votes that would otherwise go to… Read more »

Gary Bateman

9 years ago

Ken Boyer, Don Sutton & Minnie Minoso (who is not on the Optional Player List, despite 50.2 WAR)

9 years ago

Steib Sutton Page

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Also, Mo’s ballot above reminded me: please list FIRST AND LAST names of the player for whom you’re voting. It’s very helpful for the people who’re counting votes. In the regular rounds, it’s not too big a deal; in the redemption rounds, it matters a lot. Mo’s ballot is pretty clear, but it’s when those ballots with “Smith” or “Evans” start coming in that things get confusing. Thanks!

T-Bone

9 years ago

Dick Allen, Reggie Smith, Satchel Paige.

Mike HBC

9 years ago

Wait, Satchel Paige is eligible via Redemption Round? In that case:

Jim Abbott
Curtis Pride
Satchel Paige

Paul E

9 years ago

Dick Allen, Ted Simmons, Dave Steib

Andy

9 years ago

Andre Dawson, Jim Edmonds, Don Drysdale

JEV

9 years ago

Don Drysdale, Gary Sheffield, Dave Steib

9 years ago

Reggie Smith, Hal Newhouser, Don Drysdale

mosc

9 years ago

Thanks for not splitting this out. I don’t think there’s much talent in the more recent half of the COG but we do have several guys on this list I think are excellent Satchel Paige, Don Drysdale, Monte Irvin I also like the case of Andre Dawson but I don’t think he’s going to get enough support (I’ll drop the equally unsupported Irvin if people start voting Dawson). He was a much better all around player than several guys we’ve let in recently (Killebrew, Waner) with a spectacular peak. Maybe guys here are remembering the old slugging, slow, free swinging… Read more »

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to mosc

Vote Change!

Satchel Paige, Don Drysdale, Wes Ferrell

Joseph

9 years ago

Willie Randolph, Andre Dawson, and as a lark, the only guy to ever have PA>3000, BA.400, Eddie Stanky. And he did it with no power. How the heck did he do that?

Joseph

9 years ago

Reply to Joseph

That post messed up. In regards to Stanky, it should have said that he was the only player to ever have (career stats):

PA greater than 3,000

BA less than .270 and

OBP greater than .400

Brent

9 years ago

Reply to Joseph

Stanky and Max Bishop (who just misses your criteria because his BA is just over .270 (.271)) are two of a kind. Unlike most players who display the ability to take a walk, they had zero power. I think we all would agree that most of the time, the ability to work a walk has something to do with the pitcher, as well as the batter, because most batters who walk a lot are hitters that the pitcher would work carefully to, but in Stanky and Bishops’s case, that really isn’t so. Their ability to take walks had to come… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

I love that Red Ruffing started his career 39 – 96 and went on to be a Hall of Famer. That was really smart of him to get traded to the Yankees.

But he delivered in the World Series (complete game victories in 6 out of his 7 series’).

And delivered at the plate.
15.0 WAR to add to his 55.4 from the mound.
___________________________________________

Vote:

Willie Randolph
Red Ruffing
Satchel Paige

bells

9 years ago

It’s been awhile since I’ve voted, so I’ll briefly explain my basic methodology: I rate guys based on a cumulative rank of four advanced stats: WAR, WAA+, JAWS, and WAR*WAR/162GP (or 250IP). My hope is that this gives a bit of a starting point to show how players are differentiated with slightly different stats that emphasize different things (eg. Palmeiro is ranked first of redemption candidates in WAR, but only 23rd in WAA+, suggesting he was good for a long time but not great). A cumulative ranking of ‘4’ would suggest the player was first in all 4 categories. I… Read more »

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to bells

I forgot Ferrell. How could I? Thanks for the reminder I’m changing my vote!

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

Oh! I also forgot Ferrell……. (getting ready for a 3100 mile move, in a car… tomorrow… mind is a bit occupied)

Vote Change:

Wes Ferrell
Red Ruffing
Satchel Paige

bells

9 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

What?! How do you even move 3100 miles within the US (which I’m assuming)? That must be the most NW-SE (or NE-SW, or vice-versa for both) route you can possibly take! As someone who loves long drives, I hope you have the perfect mix of enjoying the scenery, zoning out and thinking about trivial things (eg. this website) for hours, feeling really really sick of being in a car and feeling weirdly dirty and sweaty even though you’ve just been sitting there, and just being enveloped by things and people and cars going by you as you get towards where… Read more »

Joseph

9 years ago

Reply to bells

Bangor, Maine to San Diego, CA and Seattle, WA to Miami, Fl are both over 3,200 miles, I believe.

So, he has room to spare.

Brent

9 years ago

Reply to bells

Well, he could be moving to or from our 49th state and I assume travel from many places there by car would to almost anywhere in the rest of the US would be well over 3000 miles

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

Reply to Brent

Oregon to New Hampshire.
And the route will be more like 3600 miles.

Two days driving.
Two days visiting friends.
Two days driving.
Two days visiting relatives.
Two days driving.

BillH

9 years ago

Palmeiro, Paige, Dawson

koma

9 years ago

Ted Simmons, Dave Steib, Satchel Paige

Hartvig

9 years ago

I’m a big Hall guy and I see lots of guys that I think are HOF worthy. That said, the COG is not exactly the same thing and, even if it was, you have to draw the line somewhere. My biggest problem is with the 3rd basemen- Nettles, Bell, Boyer & Bando. I have no clue as to how they should rank & where to draw the line. I didn’t vote for Satchel the last time around but not that I think about it that was kind of hypocritical on my part. I have supported both Minoso & Doby in… Read more »

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

FWIW, I don’t know if you agree, but I think Darrell Evans is in that group of 3B, as well.

dr-remulak

9 years ago

Randolph, Ruffing, Allen.

aweb

9 years ago

McGwire

Palmeiro

Simmons

Stephen

9 years ago

Newhouser, K. Hernandez, Steib

bstar

9 years ago

Newhouser, Drysdale, Dawson

David Horwich

9 years ago

Totals through 20 ballots (#41):

9 – Paige
6 – Drysdale, Stieb
4 – Dawson, W Ferrell, Newhouser
3 – D Allen, T Simmons
2 – Palmeiro, Randolph, Ruffing, R Smith, Sutton
1 – J Abbott, K Boyer, Bunning, Edmonds, K Hernandez, Irvin, McGwire, Minoso, Pride, Sheffield, Stanky

Interesting that there haven’t been any votes for Dwight Evans, or David Cone, both of whom were redeemed last time around – perhaps their supporters figure they have no chance of actually getting elected even if they get back onto the ballot and so are using their votes elsewhere?

David P

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

@33 Hartvig and @43 David H:

Yeah, I’m finding it harder and harder to make sense of the voting. Which makes it harder and harder to participate.

Nettles on the main ballot but one combined vote for Boyer, Bells, and Bando?

Six votes for Stieb and 0 for Cone or Saberhagen who were his contemporaries and at the very least his equals, if not his superiors?

Dave Humbert

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Another explanation for the vote spread may be ‘redemption fatigue’ among our voters. Paige is getting traction because he was an all-time great, but so were other Negro League stars. The BBWAA did not vote him or any of the others in, special committees did. I agree with @39 and @44, that putting him in goes beyond the bounds the BBWAA worked within. It was unfortunate that Negro Leaguers were not admitted to the HOF by the same mechanisms but they ultimately did get in. I cannot put Paige in the COG (yet) even with the +1 rule because to… Read more »

Author

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Dave Humbert

65 career WAR seems to have become our magic dividing line in defining the cutoff for exceptions (about the same number of exceptions above and below the cutoff). For position players: – Above 65 WAR and Out: Palmeiro, Evans, Bell, Randolph – Below 65 WAR and In (excl. Catchers and Middle Infielders): McCovey, Killebrew, Greenberg Randolph seems to be the real outlier in that he’s above the line AND a middle infielder (and played on WS winners for the Yankees), yet it seems he’s a long shot even if he should make it back on the ballot. For pitchers, that… Read more »

Joseph

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

You missed Nettles in the above 65 WAR and out group. Although he’s still active in the voting.

Chris C

9 years ago

Steib, McGwire, Will Clark

Hub Kid

9 years ago

Dick Allen, Hal Newhouser, Wes Ferrell I am glad to see that Paige is getting support; I agree with Birtelcom’s decision to allow ‘a voter override’ to allow him the chance of getting onto the ballot; however else one might object, you can’t say it’s not democratic. On top of that, it is not really clear that winning a Redemption Round at this stage is that much of a chance. That said, I would rather see any of these three get back on the ballot first. When it comes down to it, I don’t personally want to throw Paige into… Read more »

Hub Kid

9 years ago

Reply to Hub Kid

here is my crude tally of Redemption Round results, if anyone is interested, with votes in brackets if I recorded them: Redemption Round 1 (after 1960- simultaneous w/1959 vote) 2 winners: Lofton & K. Brown Redemption Round 2 (after 1950- preceding 1949 vote), 2 winners: Edgar Martinez & Lofton Redemption Round 3 (simultaneous w/ 1939 vote), 2 winners: Winfield (21 votes) & Reuschel (16) Redemption Round 4 (simultaneous w/1929 vote), 2 winners: Killebrew (21) & Eddie Murray (21) Redemption Round 5 (simultaneous w/ 1922 pt.2 vote), 3 winners: Alomar (22), K. Brown (19) & Eckersley (16) Redemption Round 6 (simultaneous… Read more »

Author

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Hub Kid

So, 5 COG inductees (Lofton, Martinez, Killebrew, Murray, Alomar) have been reinstated via the redemption round. That’s a pretty good proportion of the 17 that have gotten a second (or third) chance. And, 8 of the remaining 12 are still on the main ballot.

Seems to be working reasonably well in identifying players worthy of a second look.

Hub Kid

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

I think the increase at Rounds 7 and 8 from the multiple rounds, and especially the extra ‘winners’ from the ties overwhelmed the process. Now that we are back to a ‘classic’ Redemption Round, I think it won’t be so problematic. I enjoy Redemption Rounds, all of these ‘borderline & under-appreciated’ candidates going head to head, is a lot of fun, but I am not sure how much chance recent winners have had. I agree with the concept, too, but I wonder if there is something like an optimal number of winners that we have exceeded for a few rounds… Read more »

Shard

9 years ago

When I worked for the Springfield Redbirds (Cardinals AAA) back in 1978, the owner of the team, A. Ray Smith, employed Satchel Paige, as Satchel was down on his luck at that time. One night Satchel invited a few of the office staff over to his apartment and he served lamb for dinner. A Hall of Famer cooking you dinner! One of my favorite memories.

Satchel Paige – Ken Boyer – Keith Hernandez

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

I’m going to engage in my first-ever VOTE CHANGE in the COG process (and that’s a LOT of chances for me, since I know I’m one of the few to have voted in every round); I realize this is probably too little too late, but I’m dropping Jim Bunning in favor of a fellow 1931 birth-year player, but who’s getting a little more action – Ken Boyer. New ballot:

Dave Stieb
Don Drysdale
Ken Boyer

David P

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

In other news, hell will be freezing over later today and pigs will being flying. On the other hand,the Cubs will still fail to win the WS…

oneblankspace

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Boyer is the only Cardinal player with his number officially retired who is not in Cooperstown.

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Only naming those who have appeared on 3+ ballots, here’s an update:

10 – Satchel Paige
7 – Dave Stieb
6 – Don Drysdale
5 – Wes Ferrell, Hal Newhouser
4 – Dick Allen, Andre Dawson
3 – Ken Boyer, Ted Simmons

Since, according to the post above, we’ll be restoring THREE to the regular ballot this round, that makes Drysdale the cutoff; but remember, we ARE getting THREE returnees, so third place DOES matter!

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

If that’s the case I’m changing my vote from
Paige, Drysdale, Ferrell
to
Paige, Dawson, Ferrell

BillH

9 years ago

I’m changing my vote from

Palmeiro, Paige, Dawson

to:

Satchel Paige, Andre Dawson, Dick Allen

Josh

9 years ago

David Cone, Dizzy Dean, Don Drysdale

opal611

9 years ago

For Redemption Round 9, I’m voting for:

-Willie Randolph
-Don Sutton
-Rafael Palmeiro

e pluribus munu

9 years ago

I haven’t participated in redemption rounds till this point, but I’ll contribute to this one, in honor of Paige (though I thing Dave Humbert @46 does make good points about the limited appropriateness of Paige for CoG):

Paige, Drysdale, Boyer

Chris C

9 years ago

Vote change from #49

Change from Steib, McGwire, Will Clark

Steib, McGwire, Dick Allen

Dave Humbert

9 years ago

Palmiero, Dawson, Newhouser

Kirk

9 years ago

Don Sutton, Tommy John and Minnie Mineso

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Because there’s been a lot of vote-changing, I figure it’s a good idea to post another update. This time, through Kirk’s vote (the 28th), here are the players with 10%+ (3+ votes) 11 – Satchel Paige 7 – Don Drysdale, Dave Stieb 6 – Dick Allen, Andre Dawson, Hal Newhouser 5 – Wes Ferrell 4 – Ken Boyer, Don Sutton 3 – Rafael Palmeiro, Willie Randolph, Ted Simmons (I hope I counted all of that right!) Remember, THREE players being redeemed, which right now is (still) Paige, Drysdale, and Stieb. Vote changes are done, but remaining voters still have a… Read more »

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

9 years ago

Mark McGwire, Hal Newhouser, and Dwight Evans

Lawrence Azrin

9 years ago

– Dick Allen
– Ken Boyer
– Andre Dawson

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

If my accounting is correct, this vote gives us a FIVE-WAY tie for second place, with Allen, Dawson, Drysdale, Newhouser, and Stieb all at 7 votes… yikes.

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

holdovers sure ain’t getting to 25% next round it THAT hold ups.

Jeff B

9 years ago

Paige, Dawson & Sutton

RonG

9 years ago

Lou Brock, Ken Boyer, Sal Bando

Scary Tuna

9 years ago

Andre Dawson, Dick Allen, Ken Boyer.

Darien

9 years ago

Jim Bunning, Don Drysdale, and Mark McGwire

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Keith Hernandez, Wes Ferrell, Satchel Paige

Brendan Bingham

9 years ago

Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Dwight Evans

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

OK late voters; the fates of these players are in your hands. Here are those at 10% of the vote or more:

13 – Satchel Paige
9 – Dick Allen, Andre Dawson
8 – Ken Boyer, Don Drysdale
7 – Hal Newhouser, Dave Stieb
6 – Wes Ferrell
5 – Don Sutton
4 – Mark McGwire

oneblankspace

9 years ago

Time to vote, évidemment.

Drysale
Stieb
R.Allen, I mean, D.Allen

Not sure whether I should vote for Paige, of if I need to.

Author

Doug

9 years ago

Final results. Top 3 and ties are restored to the ballot.

13 – Satchel Paige
10 – Dick Allen
9 – Andre Dawson, Don Drysdale
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
8 – Ken Boyer, Dave Stieb
7 – Hal Newhouser
6 – Wes Ferrell
5 – Don Sutton
4 – Mark McGwire