With Derek Jeter’s retirement, the 2015 season will begin without an active 3000 Hit man. But, that should change soon, likely with an unusual confluence of such hitters.

More after the jump.

Cap Anson was the first player to reach 3000 hits, a club now numbering 28 members. Here are when each of them joined:

• 1894 – Cap Anson
• 1914 – Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie
• 1921 – Ty Cobb
• 1925 – Tris Speaker, Eddie Collins
• 1942 – Paul Waner
• 1958 – Stan Musial
• 1970 – Willie Mays, Hank Aaron
• 1972 – Roberto Clemente
• 1974 – Al Kaline
• 1978 – Pete Rose
• 1979 – Carl Yastrzemski, Lou Brock
• 1985 – Rod Carew
• 1992 – Robin Yount, George Brett
• 1993 – Dave Winfield
• 1995 – Eddie Murray
• 1996 – Paul Molitor
• 1999 – Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs
• 2000 – Cal Ripken
• 2001 – Rickey Henderson
• 2005 – Rafael Palmeiro
• 2007 – Craig Biggio
• 2011 – Derek Jeter

With more players, longer seasons, bigger contracts and better training regimens, 3000 hit men have become more common, with half of the current 28 joining the club in the last 35 seasons.

As can be seen from the list above, players reaching 3000 hits have been concentrated in two periods, with seven in the 1970s and nine in the 1992-2001 decade. Some superlatives concerning 3000 hit players:

• Most reaching 3000 in same season: 2 (1914, 1925, 1970, 1979, 1992, 1999)
• Most active at same time: 3 (Speaker/Cobb/Collins 1925-28, Mays/Aaron/Clemente 1972, Rose/Yastrzemski/Brock 1979, Yount/Brett/Winfield 1993, Gwynn/Ripken/Henderson 2001)
• Most seasons active after reaching 3000 hits: 8 (Pete Rose, 1979-86), 7 (Ty Cobb 1922-28)
• Most hits in season after reaching 3000 hits*: 216 (Derek Jeter, 2012), 211 (Ty Cobb, 1922, 1924)
• Most consecutive seasons with new 3000 hit man: 3 (1999-2001)
• Most consecutive seasons with one active 3000 hit man: 12 (1992-2003)
• Most consecutive seasons with none active: 16 (1898-1913), 12 (1946-57), 11 (1931-41)

*Paul Molitor had 225 hits in the 1996 season that he reached 3000 hits

Looking ahead, a new confluence of 3000 hitters appears to be approaching. Here are projected 3000 hit dates, together with current probability (based on Bill James’ Favorite Toy) of reaching that target (not necessarily in the projected year):

• 2015 – Alex Rodriguez (60%)
• 2016 – Ichiro Suzuki (71%)
• 2017 – Adrian Beltre (97%)
• 2018 – Albert Pujols (73%)
• 2019 – Miguel Cabrera (81%)

If the future unfolds that way, it will be the first time with a new 3000 hit man in 5 consecutive seasons. However, if we assume those probabilities are independent of each other, the chance that all five will reach 3000 is only 24%, but improves to 41% if we assume Rodriguez makes it (the zero for A-Rod’s hit total last season has lowered his probability estimate substantially, probably to a much greater degree than warranted).

Some other probabilities for reaching 3000 hits.

• Robinson Cano – 40%
• Mike Trout – 24%
• Jimmy Rollins – 22%
• Elvis Andrus – 20%
• Jose Reyes – 20%
• Nick Markakis – 19%
• Andrew McCutchen – 17%
• Billy Butler – 16%
• David Wright – 12%
• none of the above – 11%