Josh Donaldson: The Curious Trade of a Unique Player

Josh Donaldson, one of the best two-way players in baseball, has been dealt to Toronto.

With 15.4 WAR in 2013-14 (second to Mike Trout), Donaldson ties Chuck Knoblauch for the most age 27-28 WAR of any player who changed teams going into or during age 29. Even if you don’t buy his top-notch defensive metrics, Donaldson ranked 6th in offensive WAR for the last two years. He’s a player.

 

Ninety-one modern players tallied 12+ WAR for age 27-28. Here are the 11 who changed teams going into or during age 29, with their WAR totals for 27-28, and then 29-30 and 29-32. The rankings are among MLB position players during the years the player was in a certain age group; they are not age-group rankings.

Player Age 27 Age 28 27-28 Rk 27-28 29-30 Rk 29-30 29-32 Rk 29-32
Josh Donaldson 8.0 7.4 15.4 #2 ??? ??? ??? ???
Chuck Knoblauch 8.6 6.7 15.4 #3 6.3 #70 7.5 #124
Mike Piazza 5.4 8.7 14.1 #7 10.5 #29 20.0 #26
Chuck Klein 6.6 7.5 14.1 #4 6.2 #35 8.9 #42
Fred Lynn 8.8 4.7 13.5 #5 4.8 #76 10.1 #61
Johnny Mize* 7.4 5.4 12.8 #3 12.3* #4* 26.0* #4*
Mark Teixeira 4.6 7.8 12.4 #6 9.4 #23 16.6 #25
Dave Winfield 8.3 3.9 12.2 #8 6.0 #46 13.7 #32
Manny Ramirez 7.3 4.8 12.1 #12 11.2 #17 20.7 #16
Bobby Bonds 7.8 4.3 12.1 #10 7.1 #40 16.5 #30
Carl Crawford 5.0 7.0 12.0 #9 0.6 #335 4.7 #190

* Mize played at 29, then missed age 30-32 in the service and returned at 33. The totals and rankings shown in his “29-30” and “29-32” columns simply skip the missed years, and so cover 1942/’46 and 1942/’46-48. No one else on this list missed a full year during age 27-32.

If we don’t count my fudged rankings for Mize, none of the others ranked in MLB’s top 15 during the years they were age 29-30 or 29-32. But that’s a different topic.

_____

Besides Knoblauch and Donaldson, ten other players changed teams after logging 15 WAR in any two-year span:

  • Rogers Hornsby — 18.9 WAR, age 31-32, 3rd in MLB for 1927-28. Dealt for players and $200,000. Gave the Cubs one more MVP year at 33, but was rarely healthy after that. All you need to know about The Rajah’s personality: Traded three years in a row, each time carrying a 2-year total of at least 14.5 WAR.
  • Eddie Collins — 18.1 WAR, age 26-27, 2nd in MLB for 1913-14. Connie Mack sold the reigning MVP for $50,000 due to salary inflation caused by the Federal League and by four pennants in five years. Collins remained a superstar for many years, ranking 5th in total WAR for the 10 years after the sale.
  • Babe Ruth — 17.6 WAR, age 23-24 (14.5 as a player, 1st in MLB for 1918-19, and 3.1 as a pitcher). Sold for $100,000. Did all right afterwards.
  • Jimmie Foxx — 17.3 WAR, age 26-27, 2nd in MLB for 1934-35. Dealt for players and $150,000. Foxx had six more good years with Boston, but never reached his 8.1 WAR average for seven full years in Philly. (The dispersal of Mack’s second dynasty was slower than the first. Al Simmons was moved after 1932’s distant 2nd-place finish; Lefty Grove, Mickey Cochrane and Maxie Bishop followed after ’33. But Mack kept Foxx until the A’s finally hit the cellar in ’35.)
  • Alex Rodriguez — 15.1 WAR, age 23-24, and 17.2 WAR, age 26-27, both 2nd in MLB, for 1999-2000 and for 2002-03. Left Seattle as a free agent, then dealt to the Yankees after three MVP-caliber years in Texas. Remained a top player for five years in the Bronx (two MPVs, 2nd in total WAR) before age and injury took hold.
  • Tris Speaker — 17.0 WAR, age 26-27, 2nd in MLB for 1914-15. Traded for players and $55,000 after his second title year with Boston, when he wouldn’t take a big salary cut. (Player pay fell sharply when the Feds folded.) Third in total WAR for his seven years as a BoSox starter (after Collins and Cobb), and third for the 10 years after the trade (trailing Hornsby and Ruth).
  • Barry Bonds — 16.9 WAR, age 26-27, 1st in MLB for 1991-92. Left Pittsburgh as a free agent after his 2nd MVP in three years. Bonds won five more such crowns with the Giants, not without some growing pains. (Barry’s 84.1 WAR for age 24-33 — presumably “clean,” although who really knows — rate 5th all-time.)
  • Jason Giambi — 16.9 WAR, age 29-30, 3rd in MLB for 2000-01. If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. Giambi had one top-flight year with the Yanks, but the title still eludes him.
  • Robinson Cano — 16.0 WAR, age 29-30, 2nd in MLB for 2012-13. Trying a new tack, New York let a perennial MVP candidate get away over bushels of money.
  • Home Run Baker — 15.2 WAR, age 27-28, 3rd in MLB for 1913-14. Sat out all of 1915 in a salary fight. Finally sold for $37,500 to the Yanks, where he had four good years (11th in total WAR for 1916-19) but never approached his A’s peak.

Including Donaldson and Knoblauch, all 12 of these players ranked 3rd or better in total WAR for the prior two years.

The 12 prior transfers of these 15-WAR players were all centered on money. The only player going the other way in these deals who totaled 15 WAR afterward was Sad Sam Jones (in the Speaker deal), with 40 WAR over 20 years. Players at this level don’t get put into challenge trades.

But Donaldson is still cheap, expected to earn less than $5 million in 2015, his first year of arbitration eligibility. Billy Beane has a tight budget, but he’s not dealing a top player just to save $5 million. He must think this will make the A’s better at least by 2016, and for years after that.

Could that reflect Bean’s private view of Donaldson, or of late-bloomers in general? Donaldson’s sudden emergence at age 27 was very unusual. He had just a half-year’s experience in MLB, and a so-so career in the minors. Two related measures reflect this rarity:

(1) Out of 98 players whose age 27 yielded either 7+ WAR or 6+ offensive WAR, only Ichiro Suzuki and Jose Abreu were less established through age 26 than Donaldson, and that was only because they had yet to sign with a big-league team. Three others had less than 1,000 PAs through age 26, but all were regulars at 26:

  • Josh Hamilton debuted at 26 (after a self-inflicted delay) with a 131 OPS+ in 337 PAs.
  • Matt Carpenter got his first steady gig at 26 with a 125 OPS+ in 340 PAs.
  • Jim Gentile broke through at 26 with a 145 OPS+ in 464 PAs.

Donaldson’s half-year at age 26 brought a mere 91 OPS+. And all three above had better bush-league numbers.

(2) Out of 91 players who totaled 12+ WAR for age 27-28, only Donaldson was not a regular by age 26. All but John Valentin had over 1,000 PAs by age 26, and Valentin at 26 played 144 games and logged 5.2 WAR.

So in this sense, Donaldson is unique in modern baseball. And although he was a late-1st-round pick at age 21, his minor-league record is spotty. His two good offensive years were both about 50 games — his pro debut, at the lowest levels, and then his third turn at triple-A.

It’s well established that players who break through in their late 20s tend to have shorter peaks. Donaldson’s second big year tends to mitigate that factor, but Beane still might be playing those percentages.

What do you think? Will Donaldson be a long-term star for the Blue Jays? Did the A’s get enough in return?

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Jesse
Jesse
9 years ago

I think that Donaldson will be a long-term star for the Jays and the A’s definitely did not get enough in return. It’s important to keep in mind that Donaldson was a catcher his whole career through 2011, then learned 3rd base. Lesser wear on his body, specifically hips, translated directly to more success at the plate. Sad to see him go.

Yippeeyappee
Yippeeyappee
9 years ago

Most analyses of this trade that I have seen tend to treat the three minor league players as non-factors, when every one of them has some upside, so this is a wait and see trade.

Doug
Doug
9 years ago

The linked piece by Nick Ashbourne had some interesting insights from the “baseball as a business” vantage point, particularly the view that the Blue Jays are “all in” to win now (as they have been for the past two years) because Joey Bats and double-E are: (a) not getting any younger; and (b) are only under contract through 2016. One quote I would take issue with is this: The Jays have made two impact acquisitions this offseason, and neither of them have been at positions of dire need. Seems ludicrous to me to say that acquiring Russell Martin was not… Read more »

mosc
mosc
9 years ago

Yeah, I don’t get it. I really don’t get it. Maybe his hitting will fall off but he’s controlled for 4 years at arbitration rates. He plays worse, you get him cheaper. You don’t have to sign him ever (as a FA) and you can let him go if you want with little fuss before his age 33 season. His power is legit and his glove is spectacular. 158 games in two straight years also locks in some value. I think if you burnt every contract and arb/pre-arb rule in the books making every player a free agent, Donaldson is… Read more »

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Maybe we’re looking at this wrong. It’s not that Donaldson isn’t so good, it’s that Brett lawrie isn’t bad either. They have 4 years between them but on the free agent timeframe, Lawrie’s actually got LESS control. That said, the only thing stopping him seems to be injury. He’s played 2B/3B extremely well when healthy and has flashed a pretty hefty right handed power bat of his own. Are you going to bet over the next three years that the age 25-27 kid starts fewer games than the age 29-31 kid? Donaldson has a gaudy 20 RFIELD on his resume,… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
9 years ago

I can’t see how this makes the A’s better in 2015, but I do see this as a major harbinger of things to come. There’s something interesting going on in the trade market–it’s not consistent and not always applicable to each team, but we may be moving towards more of an NBA-style approach, where cost can be more important than talent/performance. Teams like the A’s have limited budgets and have to find ways to monetize their assets or find values that aren’t currently as highly priced. But the market is starting to see those higher priced assets differently than the… Read more »

David P
David P
9 years ago

Another thought….perhaps Lawrie might benefit from a change of scenery. A few years ago he looked like he could be the face of the Blue Jays for the next decade. He was considered 100% untouchable. Things obviously haven’t worked out the way he and the Jays expected. But he’s still young and could conceivably turn things around.

Heck, even with his offensive struggles of the past 3 years, he’s averaged 3.9 WAR per 600 PAs. If he can stay healthy and make some improvements to his hitting, I could see him putting up 4-6 WAR per year for the A’s.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago

Here’s the discussion on Lawrie from Doug’s post two years ago:

http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/05/is-brett-lawrie-one-of-the-greatest-fielders-ever/

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

I wonder looking back at that now if we can more easily answer the question of how much of that DWAR came from the shift and how much of it was the player. I still think defensive metrics are terrible and barely even give a decent indication of below average/average/above average even over large sampling size but even in conventional times things are complicated. The shift makes it even more difficult to separate player’s ability from the manager’s placement of them pre-pitch. I would wager that the percentage of played fielded by a third basemen has increased in recent years… Read more »

RJ
RJ
9 years ago
Reply to  mosc

The problem with Lawrie’s defensive rating was that DRS wasn’t taking into account his extreme positioning on shifts. The discussion on High Heat Stats took place in May. By July, the guys behind DRS had changed the formula to ignore plays made on shifts for individual players, whilst accounting for it at a team level. Lawrie still figured to be the best defensive third baseman in baseball that year, but not by a never-before-seen margin:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/brett_lawrie%E2%80%94best_defensive_third_baseman_in_baseball_/

RJ
RJ
9 years ago
Reply to  mosc

@mosc: I realise my comment doesn’t address your broader points, I just wanted to make clear to those reading the old discussion that Lawire wasn’t as game-breakingly good as the numbers at the time suggested.

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Interesting. Thanks JA

Doug
Doug
9 years ago

Best example of a challenge trade of players of the magnitude that John discusses who played the same position and were in or close to their primes? Probably Frankie Frisch and Rogers Hornsby being swapped aged 29 and 30 respectively. Frisch turned in a 9 WAR season in his first year with the Cardinals while the Giants got 10 WAR out of Hornsby before shipping him (and especially his excess baggage) to the Braves.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

But, long story short, it wasn’t Rickey.
Owner Sam Breadon did it.

Doug
Doug
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I see your point, John. Not a challenge trade in the sense of when that mostly pointless practice was briefly in vogue in the late 50s and early 60s. As you say, both teams had some trouble to deal with and the timing worked out just right. Trouble and good timing seldom go together, usually resulting in inequitable swaps (see Frank Robinson). But, in this instance, each party got far more value in the deal (on paper) than they could have reasonably hoped for. No doubt, the Cardinals were delighted with their coup. But, not so much for the Giants… Read more »

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

The biggest challenge trade in the history of baseball was clearly the one involving Mike Kekich and Fritz Peterson. For those who don’t know what I’m taking about, the details are here:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/40th-anniversary-kekich-peterson-wife-swap-story/

no statistician but
no statistician but
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Here’s an interesting thing I found out by accident: Hornsby and Frisch were teammates on the Cardinals in 1933 up until July 26th, when Rajah was released and signed by the crosstown Browns. Frisch was the regular at 2B, Hornsby the backup. Around that same time Frisch was named manager of the team. Hornsby became manager of the Browns.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
9 years ago

@19/nsb;

Hornsby is obviously one of the all-time great hitters and position players, but he had relatively few Games Played (2,259) and PA (9,480), for such an ‘inner-circle’ type. He was done as a great player by age 33 (1929), and as a regular (sort of) by age 35 (1931/ 100 G).

Closest comparison in those stats may be Gehrig: 2,164 G/ 9,963 PA, but much different career trajectories.

Doug
Doug
9 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

As an indication of how quickly Rajah’s production fell off, after the 1929 season Bill James’ Favorite Toy estimates a career hit total for the 34 year-old Hornsby of 3656 and a 97% chance of reaching 3000. Hornsby ended up at 2930 hits, missing the projection by about 4 full seasons worth of knocks. For age 34+, Hornsby batted for a .300/.400/.500 slash and a 137 OPS+. So, he was still effective, just wasn’t penciling himself into the lineup very often. Given that he was poison in the clubhouse, it would seem that team owners would want to get as… Read more »

RJ
RJ
9 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Regarding Hornsby’s relatively short career but inner-circle credentials: his WAR per Plate Appearance is second only to Babe Ruth. Even Mike Trout, whose career thus far has consisted of nothing but record-breaking awesomeness, is not quite accumulating WAR at the same level as Hornsby did.

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

This highlights why WAR as a rate stat isn’t really worth much.

It’s not that Rajah was a better player than Bonds, or Willie Mays, or Ty Cobb, etc. so much as it is that he had very limited plate appearances in his decline phase. Here’s the 8 position players ahead of Hornsby in career WAR.

PA from age 34 on:

5507…Honus Wagner
4729…Hank Aaron
4560…Stan Musial
4506…Barry Lamar
4494…Willie Mays
4302…Ty Cobb
3775…Tris Speaker
3067…Babe Ruth
844….Rogers Hornsby

Even Lou Gehrig (1422) had more PAs after that age than Hornsby did.

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

John, I have never seen Rogers Hornsby ranked as the 5th-best position player ever. Have you? That to me is a red flag.

This feels strange to me, because I remember arguing with you that Hornsby was the greatest second baseman ever and you were arguing for Eddie Collins. It’s perfectly fine if you have switched positions on that, but would you mind clarifying where you stand there before I write a long comment?

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

Hornsby had 9480 PA.

He are the top 20 in WAR, ranked by
WAA per PA (PaWaa) through the season closest to 9500 PA:

80.2 …. Babe
97.2 …. Rajah
98.3 …. Willie Mays
101.8 … Ted Williams
106.0 … Bonds
111.3 … Tyrus
112.4 … Honus
120.0 … Mickey
122.0 … Speaker
122.2 … Gehrig
127.6 … Schmidt
128.3 … Stan the Man
131.2 … Hank Aaron
132.2 … Alex the Rod
134.7 … Nap Lajoie
137.9 … Rickey Henderson
143.8 … Cocky Collins
152.2 … Ott
159.9 … Frank Robinson
163.9 … Joe Morgan
232.3 … Frankie Frisch

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

I would rather talk about WAR in a period of time rather than per PA. PA’s don’t talk about injury. Larkin looks like Cal Ripken if you turn things into rate based, maybe better, but it discounts the value of consistently being in the lineup. Rajah’s best 7 year peak was 66.1 WAR (9.4 average). 10 year was a very similar 93.1 (9.3). Going out to 14 gets you a near unbeatable 120 (still 8.6 a year). Laying out a formula of “Best N consecutive years” with a value looking like Best 1 year + Best 2 + Best 3… Read more »

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

FYI over 25 seasons, Hornsby gets every N year groupin vs Collins by an average margin of 0.8 WAR/season, same margin Mays has over Hornsby over 25. Rajah avg Collins avg 1 12.1 12.1 10.5 10.5 Rajah 1.6 2 22.3 11.2 20.2 10.1 Rajah 1.1 3 30.4 10.1 27.4 9.1 Rajah 1.0 4 39.7 9.9 36.2 9.1 Rajah 0.9 5 49.9 10.0 44.5 8.9 Rajah 1.1 6 59.5 9.9 53.5 8.9 Rajah 1.0 7 66.1 9.4 62.9 9.0 Rajah 0.5 8 74 9.3 69.9 8.7 Rajah 0.5 9 83.6 9.3 74.9 8.3 Rajah 1.0 10 93.1 9.3 78 7.8 Rajah… Read more »

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

Or fun with my new widget, Mike Trout vs Jim Rice: Trout average Rice average 1 10.8 10.8 7.5 7.5 Trout -3.3 2 19.6 9.8 13.9 7.0 Trout -2.9 3 27.5 9.2 19.1 6.4 Trout -2.8 4 28.2 7.1 21.4 5.4 Trout -1.7 5 28.2 5.6 24.3 4.9 Trout -0.8 6 28.2 4.7 27 4.5 Trout -0.2 7 28.2 4.0 32.1 4.6 Rice 0.6 8 28.2 3.5 34.6 4.3 Rice 0.8 9 28.2 3.1 37.4 4.2 Rice 1.0 10 28.2 2.8 42.1 4.2 Rice 1.4 11 28.2 2.6 44.4 4.0 Rice 1.5 12 28.2 2.4 47.4 4.0 Rice 1.6 13… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
9 years ago

Perhaps Lawrie replaces the immortal Sogard at 2B and provides more value? SAW THIS ON ANOTHER BLOG: ……those (arbitration) projections get Donaldson alone in the $40M range over the next four seasons. “Lawrie, who projects to earn about $1.8 million in the first of his three arbitration years, will account for some of that. But the other three players from the Blue Jays will be minimum-salary types for three years once they reach the majors. The deal, then, was not simply a 4-for-1. From the Athletics’ perspective, it could be a 6-for-1, 7-for-1 or even bigger by the time they… Read more »

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

With Lawrie’s arm, it would be a tremendous misuse of his talent to play him at second base. He was used there last season by the Blue Jays because Maicer Izturis missed almost the whole season due to injury and Toronto didn’t have an obvious backup. Also, with Lawrie himself missing a good chunk of the season to injury, Toronto used Juan Francisco at 3rd and he provided some power early on; enough that, when Lawrie returned, the Blue Jays continued to use Francisco at 3rd base against right-handers before moving Lawrie from second to third in the late innings… Read more »

Doug
Doug
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Good point, John.

I guess I’m just figuring that the arm strength and accuracy to play 3rd is a scarcer commodity than the arm strength to play 2nd (though, the other skills needed to play second may be scarcer still). But, a stronger arm at any position is obviously an advantage over a weaker one.

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Yeah, he doesn’t JUST have a good arm. I think you’re right doug if he was less athletic and rangy. You’d say “he’s got a great arm for third and the range for it” but really he’s got enough range for an above average middle infielder. The arm is maybe of more use at third than second but the range is of much use at second than third.

bluejaysstatsgeek
bluejaysstatsgeek
9 years ago

I suspect this could be a win-win trade. Donaldson can help the Jays right now and is an upgrade over Lawrie, according to the statistics and his HR numbers would be expected to improve playing 81 games in the Skydome. (I refuse to call it the other name they’re using these days.) Defensively, Donaldson’s dWAR is better than Lawrie too. My conjecture is that Lawrie’s hyper-ra-ra kineticism wore thin with a lot of teammates, and I recall one commented that his slapping and fist bumping antics actually hurt. So I am not sad to see Lawrie go, and obviously quite… Read more »

mosc
mosc
9 years ago

How about some Didi to the yanks discussion? I think this is a more clear cut win for all teams involved. Much less proven players than the last time these three teams made a deal (Granderson, Kennedy, Jackson, Scherzer shuffle). I think this deal’s a little easier to figure out who wanted what from. Detroit had the prospects that Arizona wanted for Didi and the yankees had a pitcher Detroit valued but Arizona didn’t particularly like. The Tigers got an arm with flexibility for very little. My guess is the diamonbacks wanted a swingman type pitcher with lots of control… Read more »

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Do you remember the Yankees’ last Dutch-born infielder?

Mike L
Mike L
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Robert Eenhorn.