COG Round 76 Results — Voters to Circle: There’s a Ford in Your Future

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Whitey Ford may have been the most avidly discussed candidate we’ve had in the Circle of Greats voting, but he has ultimately prevailed, in his 25th round on the COG eligible list. Ford becomes the 76th inductee into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats.  More on Whitey, and the voting, after the jump.

The great debate over Whitey Ford arises from subjecting some spectacular traditional rate statistics that Ford put together over his career to adjustments proposed by more recent statistical approaches, which seem to suggest a more moderate interpretation of Ford’s accomplishments. Whitey pitched for a dominant team, with some very good fielders behind him, and he did apparently pitch against a collection of hitters and teams that were not, on the whole, as competitive as the opposition many other top pitchers had to face over their careers. Exactly how much of an adjustment to make for these factors is open to debate, but Ford’s high standing in the realm of old-fashioned rate stats, such as win-loss percentage and ERA, remains extremely impressive, even if those stats measure reflect in part more than a purely personal accomplishment.

Highest Pitcher Career Win-Loss Percentage (min. 1,500 IP, debuted in the majors since 1900):
1. Whitey Ford .690 (236-106)
2. Pedro Martinez .687 (219-100
3. Lefty Grove .680 (300-141)
4. Vic Raschi .667 (132-66)
5. Christy Mathewson .665 (373-188)

Best Career ERA+ (min. 250 starts, debuted in the majors in the past 100 years):
1. Pedro Martinez 154
2. Lefty Grove 148
3. Roger Clemens 143
4. Johan Santana 136
5. Randy Johnson 135
6. Whitey Ford 133
7. Greg Maddux 132
T8. Sandy Koufax and Roy Halladay 131

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The Yankees won every single one of the first 22 starts of Whitey Ford’s career, actually 23 if you count the post-season. That may be as unlikely a streak in its way as DiMaggio’s 56-game hit streak, if you think about what it means to come up to the majors and start winning immediately, without having the team lose even once. When I query the Baseball-Reference Play Index, the second-longest regular season streak I get of this type — team wins in pitching starts from the beginning of a major league career — is eight games, a level reached by eleven different pitchers but topped only by Whitey. So that’s a 22-game streak for the longest such streak and eight games for the second-longest such streak.

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Notes on this round’s voting:

–Ford appeared on 31 ballots. That’s nine more votes than he had received in any of his 24 previous rounds on the eligible list.

— This round was a good one for the guys who already had the most accumulated rounds of assured ballot eligibility. Ford has been the candidate with the largest stash of accumulated rounds — he’s now won the big prize. Harmon Killebrew has been second in terms of accumulated eligibility rounds, and he finished second this round, well over the 25% level that gives him another round of assured eligibility for his pile. Lou Boudreau and Joe Gordon have been tied for third in terms of most accumulated eligibility, and they were the other two candidates who mustered more than 25% support this round, further adding to their high standing.

–Dizzy Dean did not get a huge amount of support in his birth-year-based debut on the eligible list, but it was enough to remain eligible at least another round.

–With Ford, a longtime holdover, now safely in the Circle, with all the other holdovers generating at least enough support to remain, and with Dizzy replacing Whitey on the holdover list, the length of that list remains stable at fourteen players.

–The number of candidates “on the bubble”, at immediate risk of losing eligibility for the ballot should they fall below the 10% support level, is now up to six, as Dean joins Minoso, Eckersley, Tiant, Winfield and Medwick in this highest-risk group.

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The full spreadsheet showing this round’s vote tally is here: COG 1910 Part 1 Vote Tally.

The vote summary for recent Circle of Greats voting rounds is here: COG Vote Summary 2 .  An archive with details of the 1968 through 1939 rounds is here: COG 1968-1939 Vote Summary .  In both cases, raw vote totals for each past round appear on Sheet 1 and the percentage totals for each past round appear on Sheet 2.

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A spreadsheet listing the full membership to date of the Circle of Greats, along with some of their stats, is here: Circle of Greats Membership . You can also find that same link any time by clicking on “Circle of Greats” at the top of the High Heats Stats home page.

Another COG data spreadsheet showing each season a COG member played in the majors, along with the team he played for that season and his baseball-reference WAR (overall WAR for everyday players, pitching WAR for pitchers) for the season, is here:
Circle of Greats Seasons

 

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Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago

For the first time I correctly predicted your title for the winner.

Mike L
Mike L
10 years ago

To quote another Ford, Gerald: “Our long national nightmare is now over.”

David P
David P
10 years ago

While I didn’t vote for Ford, I came around on him a bit after the voting. The reason. Ken Holtzman. During the discussion on the Cubs Mount Rushmore, I was looking at Holtzman’s stats and noticed something odd. In 69-70, he accumulated 10.9 WAR for the Cubs in 548.2 innings. In 72-73 he had a total of only 6.2 WAR with the A’s in slightly more innings (562.2) . And yet, in looking at his raw numbers for those periods (69-70 and 72-73), I can’t see any difference in how he pitched. If anything, it appears that he pitched better… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
10 years ago
Reply to  David P

I put Ford in a group with Marichal and Three-Finger Brown that played on great teams and that traditional stats love but the more “advanced” do not. So far I think we probably got it right by electing Marichal & Ford. Brown and Reuschel are on the opposite end of that spectrum, slightly less well qualified versions of Shilling and Mussina. I’ve voted for both in the past but at the moment I’m holding off. Dean is somewhere on the Koufax, Newhouser, Ed Walsh and Waddell spectrum of shooting stars. To me, he didn’t burn quite bright enough to qualify.… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
10 years ago

“Annual” voting update time! As always, “active” players on the ballot marked with a *. Here they are: Craig Biggio – 763 John Smoltz – 658 *Roberto Alomar – 617 Kenny Lofton – 608 Ryne Sandberg – 607 *Eddie Murray – 582 Edgar Martinez – 507 Lou Whitaker – 493 Whitey Ford – 382 Bobby Grich – 376 Sandy Koufax – 375 Tony Gwynn – 346 Willie McCovey – 336 *Harmon Killebrew – 324 Juan Marichal – 268 Tom Glavine – 262 Alan Trammell – 239 Mike Mussina – 233 *Kevin Brown – 229 Curt Schilling – 224 Nolan Ryan… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

How well does Ford fit in with the other starting pitchers in the COG so far? In terms of straight numbers, he ranks: 23rd in games, innings, hits, runs, earned runs, batters faced. Makes sense. 22nd in games started and home runs. Make sense. 24th (last) in strikeouts. Makes sense. Walks 16th. Complete games 15th. FIP 13th. Shutouts 9th. ERA+ 3rd. ERA 1st. W-L % 1st. WPA 11th, 13th among all pitchers. RE24 9th, 9th ditto. REW 8th, 8th ditto. WPI/LI 17th, 20th among all pitchers. Pitching runs 12th, 22nd among all pitchers. Pitching wins 11th, 16th among all pitchers.… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
10 years ago

Ford belongs.

In the advanced stats community, there are weaker candidates that get immediately embraced because they represent a cause. Then there are obvious candidates that people ignore because maybe they weren’t quite as good as they appear. That has nothing to do with if they belong or not. Ford belongs.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I would agree with birtelcom on this one, and I was, in fact, going to write something similar. Bert Blyleven got in right away because he’s obviously deserving, not because he represents a “cause.” Larry Walker and Tim Raines and Lou Whitaker struggled to get in, in spite of perhaps being a part of the “cause.” They struggled to get in because they’re not immediately obvious candidates. While I think there is a bias toward “advanced stats,” (and it’s a bias I share), I don’t think that “cause” voting has anything to do with the results here. People seem to… Read more »

Steven
Steven
10 years ago

I just read that Ray Sadecki-who started opposite Ford in Game One of the 1964 World Series-has passed away.