The Cardinals-Dodgers NLDS finale is feeding the talk of a Cards curse on Clayton Kershaw. But it shouldn’t. No matter what’s gone before in their meetings, this episode was just a pitcher tiring from short rest.

That’s just my opinion, but there’s evidence behind it. Start with the previous five short-rest postseason starts that went beyond 100 pitches:

• John Lackey, 2013 WS Gm. 6 — Shutout through six, faded with two out in the 7th — three straight hits for a run, then a walk on his 105th pitch filled the sacks, but the reliever stranded ’em.
• Hiroki Kuroda, 2012 ALCS Gm. 2 — Retired the first 15 (seven Ks), one-hit shutout through six. Two hits in the 7th brought a run, and after fanning the first two in the 8th, two singles (pitch nos. 100 and 103) sent off Kuroda and led to two more runs on his ledger.
• Justin Verlander, 2011 ALDS Gm. 3* — Two early runs, then clear sailing (with 9 Ks) until two out in the 7th, when a walk and HBP set up a full-count double that tied it at four on his 97th pitch. (Justin stuck through 120 pitches, and won.)
• C.C. Sabathia, same game as Verlander* — C.C. never had it, laboring into the 6th (dodging five of six walks), and allowing the 4th run on his 103rd pitch.
• Derek Lowe, 2010 NLDS Gm. 4 — Almost perfect through five (an E6 was caught stealing), then a tying solo HR in the 6th. With one out in the 7th, back ahead by a run, Lowe gave up a walk, infield hit and another walk on his 101st pitch, and the bullpen let in two runs for the final.

* Verlander and Sabathia both were on two days’ rest, after about 25 pitches each in a rain-interrupted opener.

Now let’s go a bit farther back. To avoid the appearance of cherry-picking, I’ll start with Josh Beckett’s shutout that ended the 2003 World Series. From that game through this one, we have 24 postseason starters who lasted into the 6th inning on short rest. Since they lasted that long, their overall 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP* (including HBP) is no surprise. But check out this breakdown:

• Innings 1-5 — 2.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP* … 120 IP, 31 runs, 84 hits, 37 walks, 103 Ks, 3 HRs
• 6th onward — 5.71 ERA, 1.76 WHIP* … 34.2 IP, 24 runs, 45 hits, 13 walks, 31 Ks, 5 HRs

Putting it another way: After the 5th, they averaged one run allowed and just over four outs recorded.

Any large group of starts shows worse results after two turns through the batting order. The 2014 splits show a 17-point rise in BA and 54-point rise in OPS for batters’ 3rd PA against a starter, compared to the first two. But the numbers above are on a different order. These guys were going great guns for five innings; and since they were on short rest, we assume their skippers and catchers were watching closely for signs of fatigue. But they still got lit up in the 6th and beyond.

My point here isn’t to pick on Don Mattingly. Even if you fault his decision, you have to respect that the particular problem posed by Matt Adams and LA’s struggling southpaw relievers put Donnie in a bind. But these data suggest that the leash on short-rest starters should be cruelly tight. Looking sharp for five innings — even fanning the side in the 6th — means virtually nothing. When they go bad, it can be lightning-quick.