(Answers to the “betcha” challenges are at the bottom.)

Games of Sunday, 9/21

@PIT 1, MIL 0 — Crucial gaffes in the late innings put Milwaukee’s postseason hopes on life support. A passed ball and a wild pitch in the 7th set up Russell Martin’s RBI hit, scoring Andrew McCutchen with the only run. Carlos Gomez singled to start the 9th, but he was caught straying from second with no outs after an infield hit. Vance Worley blanked the Brewers on four singles over eight stanzas, leaving for a pinch-hitter after just 82 pitches.

HOU 8, @SEA 3 — Houston rallied against the fading Hisashi Iwakuma, scoring three in the 5th to wipe out a 3-1 deficit. Iwakuma had punched out three straight Astros in the 4th after Alex Presley’s leadoff double, and he whiffed Dexter Fowler with the bags full and one out in the 5th. But Presley came through on a 3-1 count from Iwakuma, who had his worst strike percentage this year (51/88) and walked three for the first time in his last 34 starts. Seattle dropped two of three to the Astros for the second time in two weeks, and fell 1.5 games behind the Royals — or one game if you assume KC loses the suspended game.

• Collin McHugh’s walk-free streak ended in the 5th, when he lost Logan Morrison from an 0-2 count, and Michael Saunders punished the freebie with a tiebreaking homer. McHugh had gone 36 innings and 133 batters since his last pass. But he still won his 5th straight start (the first such by an Astro since 2005) and 7th of his last eight outings.
• 220 hits for Jose Altuve — more than any second baseman since Charlie Gehringer’s 227 in 1936. The only 2Bs with more than 227 were Rogers Hornsby (three times, with a record of 250) and Nap Lajoie. Altuve has six games left, but I won’t jinx him with a projection.

@KCR 5, DET 2 — Nori Aoki found that good things can happen when he swings away, and KC salvaged their season finale against the Tigers. Aoki followed Alcides Escobar’s failed sac attempt with a go-ahead 2-run triple, a hard chopper that got under Miggy’s glove and into the unguarded shadows in right field. The Royals had squandered a 2-0 edge and numerous early chances to break it open, but their three bullpen aces locked up this lead by retiring 11 of 12.

@OAK 8, PHI 6 (10 inn.) — Philly tied it up from 3-1, 4-3 and 6-4 — so the A’s had to walk it off.

• When Billy Beane said that the Jon Lester trade was made with the regular season in mind, not looking ahead to the playoffs, it seemed like polite spin. After all, by the end of July, Scott Kazmir had a 2.37 ERA, Sonny Gray was at 2.65, and the recently landed Jeff Samardzija at 2.92. But Beane knew that Kazmir and Gray were at risk of fading; Kaz hadn’t reached 30 starts or 160 IP since 2007, and Gray is in his first full year. Sure enough, in their 10 starts since the deadline, Kazmir has a 6.67 ERA, and Gray is 1-6, 4.64. Where would the A’s be without the 7-3 team record in Lester’s starts?

Time for some pre-post-mortem rationalysization … Oakland went 62-38 in their first 100 games, but the best they can possibly get for the last 62 games is 30-32. How does that affect their odds of going deep into October? Obviously, being a wild card instead of a division winner is a much bigger obstacle in the current format than in the past. But beyond that, how much does mediocre play in the last two months really mean?

I looked at playoff teams in the past 100 years in terms of games 1-100 and games 101-end. Only eight played under .500 in the latter portion. Two of those won the World Series, the 2006 Cardinals (25-36) and the 1958 Yankees (27-28). Out of two who went straight to the Series, those ’58 Yanks won it all, and the ’26 Yanks (26-29) lost in seven. Out of six in the divisional age, two won the pennant, and one won it all; oddly, those two were in the same year, as the 2006 Cards knocked off a Tigers team that closed at 28-34, but then breezed through two playoff series. Five other playoff teams played right at .500 after their first 100 games. The ’68 Cards went straight to the Series and lost in seven; of the other four, the ’87 Twins and 2010 Rangers won the pennant, and the Twins won it all.

So, although this is just a rough look, it seems to me that as long as the A’s reach the dance, the only impact of their poor play down the stretch is that they have to play the wild-card game. And given how the Angels have played in the same span, that outcome was likely even if the A’s had played well. The story of this race has been framed as an Oakland collapse, but it’s just as much of an Angels surge. Consider:

Oakland’s biggest lead was 6 games, last on June 21; but a 6-game lead before the midpoint means nothing. From there to the 100-game mark, the lead shrunk to two — not because the A’s folded (they went 15-10), but because the Angels went 20-7 (no head-to-head in that span). It was still two games at the end of July, when the A’s dealt Cespedes for Lester. Since then, the Angels are 32-17, the A’s 19-29. But the A’s could have gone 29-19 and still trailed in the race. Oakland went 2-5 head-to-head in that span. But even if they’d gone 4-3 (making the Angels 30-19), the A’s would have needed at least 24-17 in other games to hold a lead on the Angels. That’s a .585 win percentage, which only three teams have reached this year.

The Angels now hold the best record in baseball, a 100-win pace. That’s the same pace Oakland had after 100 games, and after the trade deadline. So I say the Angels won the division, at least as much as Oakland lost it. And after that, who cares whether the margin was one game or ten?

At least, that’s what I’d tell myself if I were an A’s player or fan.

CLE 7, @MIN 2 — Corey Kluber took over the MLB strikeout lead with his second straight 14-K game — a feat done last by Randy Johnson in 2004, and since 1989 by only him and Pedro Martinez (the only one ever with three straight). No one else has more than one 14-K game this year, and only Yu Darvish has more than one in any of the last three seasons.

• Back-to-back 14-K games, since 1914: Sam McDowell (twice) and Bob Gibson, both 1968; Mickey Lolich, ’71; Doc Gooden, ’84; Jose Rijo, ’86; Roger Clemens, ’88; Johnson, ’97, ’99, ’01 and ’04; Pedro, ’99 (twice, including 3 straight) and ’00; and now Kluber.
• Cleveland’s last AL whiff king was Len Barker, 1980-81, and Sam McDowell was last to lead the bigs, 1968-70.
• Michael Brantley’s magnificent year continued, with the “GWRBI” on his 43rd double, and another two-out scoring hit for his 97th RBI. Brantly, McCutchen, and Jose Abreu — three of the top five in offensive WAR — are all 27 this year.

LAD 8, @CHC 5 — Matt Kemp’s three scoring hits and four tallies by Yasiel Puig led the Dodgers closer to the division crown and home-field edge in the first round. Kemp slammed his 23rd homer, and Puig scored four runs for the first time, reaching on two singles, a wild third strike and an infield error.

@SDP 8, SFG 2 — Getting swept by the Friars squeezed most of the juice from the upcoming series in L.A., now that the Dodgers lead by 4.5 games in the division.

• San Diego’s 2.58 home ERA would be the lowest since the 1990 A’s.

NYM 10, @ATL 2 — Behind Jacob deGrom, the Mets captured this season series for the first time since 2006, and just the second time in the last 17 years.

• Where have I seen this before? deGrom fanned the first four and eight of the first 11 Bravos. He finished his day (and maybe his year) with one earned run in 6 IP, his fourth 10-K effort, a 2.63 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in 22 starts.
• Atlanta has scored 2 runs or less in 13 of their last 20 games, going 5-15 with 41 total runs.
• Dumb Stat of the Day! The Mets are 17-3 this year when Kirk Nieuwenhuis starts — the best W% of any position player starting at least 5 games. Next-best with 15+ starts is Grant Green’s 17-6 with the Angels. Like I said, it’s a dumb stat, but Nieuwenhuis has played much better than you’d guess from his .250 BA and 3 HRs. Sixteen of his 26 hits have gone for extras, and his .344 OBP and .815 OPS both rank 2nd among Mets with even 50 PAs. What makes the 17-3 mark even stranger is that he’s only started against RHPs, while the Mets have done better against southpaws. Facing a righty starter without Nieuwenhuis, they’re 42-62.

@NYY 5, TOR 2 — Masahiro Tanaka’s return was encouraging: one run in 5.1 IP (scored on a DP), 70 pitches, just 22 balls and one 3-ball count. And as usual, 0-3 with RISP.

• Derek Jeter helped break it open with an RBI double, giving him four straight two-hit games. A steal of third gave Jeter 17 seasons with 10 or more steals, tied for 8th in the modern era.

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Saturday, 9/20

@DET 3, KCR 2 — Strange doings with two out in the home 6th, as offsetting bad fundies first donated the lead run to Kansas City, then deducted it, after the blue crew seemed to review when they’d no right to do. In the next half, a two-out walk and wild pitch by James Shields set up scoring knocks by rookie Tyler Collins (now 3 for 5 as a PH, with 4 RBI) and Rajai Davis, and Detroit’s dicey bullpen just survived a shaky 8th and 9th.

• The play that got Salvador Perez called out on appeal was officially not subject to challenge and review. The umps conferred among themselves, with no sign of a decision, and crew chief Larry Vanover got on the headset. Meanwhile, the stadium video showed that Perez clearly failed to retouch third after the lineout, before racing home on the wild throw. Eventually, Vanover ruled Perez out. He later said, “The video board did not come into play in the decision. You’re not allowed to do that.” Yes, but … even when no challenge is permitted, the umps may confer and change a call. If any of them saw the replay on the screen, could they really keep that out of their decision? It was a very odd situation — and you hate to think that the stadium video operator may have cost KC a crucial run.
• With none out in the 1st and again in the 3rd, Nori Aoki sacrificed to move a man from second to third. Max Scherzer brushed aside both threats, stranding three in scoring position with three strikeouts and a foul pop against Josh Willingham and Alex Gordon. KC leads the majors in scoring men from third with one out, at 58%. But Willingham has whiffed in 26% of his PAs over the last four years, and 9 of 26 prior face-offs with Max.
• Christina Kahrl has some thoughts on the mismatch between Ned Yost’s strategies and his batting order. On the other hand, Gordon has gone cold, 7 for 50 with no homers in the last 15 games (KC 6-9).
• All three Tigers outfielders had key hits, starting with Torii Hunter’s icebreaking blast. The trade for David Price hasn’t paid big dividends (yet), but Dave Dombrowski is winning his bet that J.D. Martinez’s emergence was for real, and that they wouldn’t miss Austin Jackson’s offense. Since the trade, Rajai Davis has easily out-hit Jackson, and Martinez has hit .310 with OPS near .900.
• KC’s home schedule ends Sunday, when Jeremy Guthrie faces Rick Porcello. They’ll play three in Cleveland (plus the finish of a suspended game they trail 4-2), then close with four in Chicago. They’ve played better on the road this year, largely due to our next point….
• This lopsided season series may go down as the difference in the pennant race. The Tigers are 13-5 against KC, 8-1 in Kaufman Stadium, outscoring the Royals there by 64-22.

PHI 3, @OAK 0 — Scoreless into the 7th … Usually, the longer a game stays tied, the more you expect the home team to win. But watching these middle innings, I felt just the opposite. The A’s had barely peeped since squandering a bags-full threat against Jerome Williams in the 2nd, with their lone runner from the 3rd through 6th promptly wiped off by a DP. Their setup workhorse Dan Otero came on for the 7th, fitting two groundouts around a bloop double. Then he fell behind on Freddy Galvis, 3-and-1. Otero had the lowest career homer rate of any active pitcher with 100 innings, 3 HRs in 133 IP, and had never been touched up by a lefty, in 248 PAs. You can guess what’s coming.

• Oakland still holds the top wild card despite their recent 3-7 record, as the Royals and Mariners have both gone 4-6.
• Galvis has 4 HRs this year, all tying or go-ahead shots in the 5th or later.
• Swingman Drew Pomeranz made his 4th scoreless start this year of exactly 5 innings, joining Greg Maddux (2002) atop that very modern list. Only two others since 1914 had three such starts, including Josh Beckett this year. Pomeranz has started 10 games and yielded no earned runs six times, but just one of those lasted more than 5.1 IP.
• Otero ranks 3rd this year with 82.2 relief innings, and holds a 2.40 ERA, despite the lowest K rate of the 65 men with 60 IP out of the pen. Before today, he had a career .271 BA against, but only 18.7% of his hits went for extra bases, the lowest rate of actives with 100 IP.
• Elias noted that Jerome Williams is the first pitcher known to beat the same club three times in one year for three different teams. It’s a fun freak stat. But when you think a little deeper, how many pitchers have even won a game for three different teams in a year, no matter whom they beat? I found 12 others, of which I’ll list 10 here; betcha can’t name the other two in no more than three guesses: Cliff Curtis, 1911; Shufflin’ Phil Douglas, 1915; Columbia George Smith, 1918; Big Bill James, 1919; Burleigh Grimes, 1934 (Ol’ Stubblebeard); Nels Potter, 1948; Johnny Schmitz, 1952 (Bear Tracks won exactly once for the Dodgers, Yankees and Reds); Ray Sadecki, 1975; Dock Ellis, 1977; and David Weathers, 2004.
  (Note that Bob L. Miller, as he was known to ’62 Mets fans, had three bites at this apple, toiling for three different teams in 1970, ’71 and ’73 and totaling at least 4 wins each year, but he never nailed the trifecta.)

@HOU 10, SEA 1 — Chris Young’s September slump could be a sign of fatigue, as each game takes him farther past his highest innings total of the past six years. His luck might be evening out, bringing his ERA closer to his FIP; for instance, just four of his first 19 HRs came with someone on base, while three of seven this month scored a runner. But maybe it’s just that three of four September starts came on the road, where batters were already slugging almost .500 off him. Lloyd McClendon would be wise to set his rotation so that Young’s turn doesn’t come Thursday in Toronto — not a welcome site for the homer-prone — but Friday at home for the Angels, where Young has a 2.40 ERA and .572 OPS, both in the top 10 for those with a dozen home starts.

MIL 1, @PIT 0 — Before his second double set up the winning run in the 9th, Lyle Overbay’s savvy slow-play of a delayed double-steal kept the game scoreless.

• McCutchen is the 11th since 1914 with at least two walks and two HBP constituting all his PAs. All other teams with such a performance won the game, scoring at least 3 runs.

@CHC 8, LAD 7 — Brian Wilson served up Chris Coghlan’s second homer of the day on a 1-and-2 meatball, surrendering the last of what had been a 6-1 lead and maybe his chance at a meaningful October role. J.P. Howell saw the end of his year-long homerless string, as Arismendy Alcantara connected for 3 runs to cap a rally started by a 4-pitch walk with a 7-2 lead. The Cubs’ late power offset two 400-foot bombs by Adrian Gonzalez, who’s seized the NL ribby lead with a hot second half (50 RBI in 58 G).

• Dee Gordon swiped his 64th. No Dodger has stolen more since Davey Lopes bagged 77 in 1975.

@SDP 3, SFG 2 — In 11 home starts, Andrew Cashner has a 1.43 ERA and .242 SLG, both marks among the six best in the last 20 years with at least 10 starts at home. San Diego is 45-32 at home, better than four current playoff teams (Dodgers, Tigers, Giants and Royals). The home average of the 10 playoff teams is about 46-32 through Saturday, a .591 W%, and Seattle (half a game behind) is just 38-40 at home.

• The 20 playoff teams of the last two years averaged .623 at home, about 2.5 more home wins per year than the current crop.
• The last 20 pennant winners averaged .626 at home. Only the Angels and Cards have reached that mark this year, though the Bucs, Birds and Nats are just below it.

TOR 6, @NYY 3 — At 79-75, New York needs a 6-1 finish to avoid their worst record since 1992, which was also their last losing season.

• Jose Bautista has 8 HRs against the Yanks this year, one shy of the high in the division era shared by Evan Longoria (2013) and Jose Cruz, Jr. (2001). Betcha don’t know the only guy to hit 10 off the Yanks in the expansion era.

NYM 4, @ATL 2 — Sure, I’ll jinx it: The Mets have an outside shot at 2nd place in the NL East, trailing Atlanta by two in the loss column.

• It hasn’t taken long for young Dilson Herrera to fit in with the Mets: At home, he has three singles in 28 ABs; on the road, 10 for 31 with 3 HRs and a triple.

@COL 5, ARI 1 — Justin Morneau reclaimed the batting lead by about a point over Josh Harrison, .3183 to .3169. Corey Dickerson almost surely won’t reach the PA threshold, but he’s still in strong contention for the slugging crown, via the loophole: Docking him an 0-for-16 (his current PA shortfall) would put him at .554, one point behind the idled Giancarlo Stanton. But the schedule works against both bids; Sunday ends the Rockies’ home slate.

• With 5 runs and 11 hits, Colorado fell short of their home averages. But they did stroke two HRs, two 3Bs and two 2Bs for the 4th time this year; no other team has more than one, and no team but the Rockies has done it four times in a season since 1977.

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Friday, 9/19

DET 10, @KCR 1 — Justin Verlander posted seven zeroes for the first time this year, before getting nicked in the 8th; he’s 11-5, 2.88 in 20 career starts at Kansas City.

@PIT 4, MIL 2 — With a bullpen getting shallower by the month, Ron Roenicke came right back to Jonathan Broxton, one night after he threw 23 pitches and blew a two-run lead. Deja vu all over again, only worse.

• John Holdzkom, signed out of independent ball this June, collected his first win with his seventh straight scoreless frame. He’s retired 20 of 23 batters, fanning 11. He had an 0.98 WHIP and 33% K rate in Pittsburgh’s minors.

@OAK 3, PHI 1  — Jon Lester has three of Oakland’s six wins this month, three of four by their starters. But their pitching actually has been pretty good this month, including the rotation; scoring has been the bigger problem.

@STL 2, CIN 1 — Back-to-back homers in the 1st stood up all night, thanks to John Lackey’s best game as a Cardinal. Mike Matheny has no time left to nurse Trevor Rosenthal’s growing pains. When a leadoff walk led to Reds on the corners with one out, the skipper went to Randy Choate, who fanned Jay Bruce on a full count, then Seth Maness to close it.

• Rosenthal leads the bigs with 44 saves and has a solid 88% conversion rate, but he’s put himself in frequent jams with a .408 OBP to the first batter. He’s been pulled from two of his last 12 save chances, with Maness saving both.
• Matt Holliday needs one more tater for his 9th straight year of 20+; only David Ortiz (13) and Miguel Cabrera (11) have longer active streaks. Holliday would be the 6th player with nine straight years of 20 HRs and 30 doubles: Stan Musial, Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez all made 10 straight, with Miggy and Jeff Kent going nine. Since his 2004 debut, Holliday ranks 5th in total bases, 4th in extra-base hits, and 10th in OPS+ of those with 4,000 PAs in that span.
• One aspect of review that needs work is consistent interpretation of the “clear and convincing evidence” standard needed to change a call. The umps may have been right to let stand this inning-ending play — I think the live call was wrong, but the views are inconclusive — yet we’ve all seen calls reversed with no more proof than this one. My brother calls me often over plays like this, in baseball and football. The NFL and NCAA, despite years of practice with their similar standards, don’t seem any more consistent than MLB. Maybe we just can’t do any better, and the solution is to give review officials free rein to simply call it as they see it, with no regard to the live call.

LAD 14, @CHC 5 — The 3 runs that Clayton Kershaw gave up in his 20th win tied his most in a win this year, which occurred just once before (an 8-IP stint). Since 2000, the most wins yielding 2 runs or less is 20, shared by Kershaw (2011) and Randy Johnson (2002). All but three of Kershaw’s 36 wins in the last two years came with 2 runs or less.

• Kershaw has won 20 of 26 outings, a .769 “game-win” percentage — 2nd-best by a 20-game winner in the last 90 years. Bob Welch won 27 of 35 in 1990, a .771 rate that Kershaw could best by winning his last start of the regular season. The all-time record at the 60-foot pitching distance is .800, shared by Jim Hughes (1899), Jack Chesbro (1902) and Dazzy Vance (1924), all 28 out of 35. (Hughes went 83-40 in four MLB seasons, 134 games; his .619 “game-win” pct. is the best of all those with 100 decisions pitched at 60 feet. But he preferred his native California, and returned to the PCL in 1903, going 60-33 in his next two years.)
• Kershaw had only pitched in Wrigley once before, losing on one unearned run.
• Javier Baez has whiffed 81 times in 44 career games. He’s already locked up the “first-50-games” records for most total strikeouts, and most games with at least 2 Ks (26), 3 Ks (12), and 4 Ks (5).

@COL 15, ARI 3 — Colorado has scored 48 runs while winning four in a row. They’ve averaged 6.16 R/G at home this year, 3.13 away — the 2nd-biggest ratio since 1914, after the ’96 Rox.

• I’m pretty sure no team ever had a higher home batting average than the league batting champ’s overall mark. The Rockies lead Josh Harrison by .322-.318. None of the 19 prior teams that hit .320+ at home pulled off this freaky feat (since 1914).
• Home games scoring 10+ runs this year: Rockies 18, A’s 8, Nats & Bucs 6.

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Random Notes

Baltimore is 24-9 in Chris Tillman’s starts, their most team wins behind one starter in the last 25 years, and his 21 team wins last year tied for 3rd on that list. He’s tied for 2nd with 45 team wins in the last two years — but his 2.99 ERA in those wins is the worst among the top 25 in team wins.

I hadda run my mouth about Baltimore’s historically low triples count. Now they’ve hit five in their last 12 games — three by recent pickup Alejandro De Aza, plus the end of long triples droughts by Delmon Young (two years, 207 games) and Nelson Cruz (three years, 467 games). Their season total of 14 is still the 12th-lowest searchable mark in a full season, but the O’s themselves have had three lower totals just since 1998.

Jeff Samardzija has a 2.30 ERA in six wins, 5.40 in 12 losses — and 1.38 in 13 no-decisions (18 runs, 14 ER in 91 IP):

• That would tie for the 2nd-best ERA since 1914 with at least 10 starting no-decisions. Roger Clemens had an 0.99 ERA in 11 NDs in 2005, and Kershaw also had a 1.38 ERA in 14 NDs in 2009.
• Samardzija’s 1.78 RA/9 in those 91 IP would be the best of any starter with 85+ IP in no-decisions.

A belated note on Anthony Rizzo’s walk-off solo shot for a 1-0 win last Monday: The last one of its kind in Wrigley came from Joe Pepitone in 1971, rewarding Ken Holtzman’s 12-inning shutout. It was Holtzman’s first start since a 1-0 no-hitter, and the last no-walk shutout beyond 10 IP in the majors.

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“Betcha don’t know” answers:

10 HRs against the Yankees in the expansion era: Cleveland’s Fred Whitfield hit 10 of his 26 HRs against the Yanks in 1965, the year they slid from first to sixth.

The others with at least one win for three different teams in a season: Bobo Newsom, 1943 (Buck), and Steve Carlton, 1986 (Lefty).