COG 1915 Results: O’er The Fields We Go/Lofton All the Way

Roy Campanella led in the early voting, and Harmon Killebrew mid-week, but Kenny Lofton, who narrowly missed induction last round, was the leader at the end of this round, and it’s the end that counts. Lofton becomes the 70th inductee in the High Heats Stats Circle of Greats. More on Kenny and the voting after the jump.

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Baseball-reference.com breaks down total Wins Above Replacement for position players into sub-categories. Three of those sub-categories are runs above, or below, average as a batter (Rbat), as a fielder (Rfield) and as a baserunner (Rbaser). Bill James used the mathematical concept of a harmonic mean to find players with high levels of accomplishment in both homers and stolen bases; James’ “Power-Speed Number” is the harmonic mean of the a player’s home run and stolen base totals. We can also do a three-number harmonic mean of Rbat, Rfield and Rbaser to measure high levels of accomplishment in all three areas of performance.

Highest Harmonic Mean of Rbat, Rfield and Rbaser, MLB History (retired players only):
1. Willie Mays 152.7
2. Rickey Henderson 124.0
3. Kenny Lofton 102.9
4. Barry Bonds 102.1
5. Max Carey 95.7
6. Hank Aaron 86.8
7. Al Kaline 82.9
8. Larry Walker 78.9
9. Willie Randolph 72.3
10. Honus Wagner 69.5

(The active players Ichiro Suzuki, Carlos Beltran and Chase Utley would be candidates for the lower half of this list today. But because players tend to drop in this stat in their later years, it wouldn’t be an accurate reflection of their historical standing to include active players here.)

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Kenny Lofton had an unusual age arc to his career. An elite-level college basketball player, he didn’t concentrate on baseball until a relatively late age and wasn’t a regular in the majors until he was 25 years old. But once he did make it as a regular he blossomed immediately:

Most WAR Over a Second Through Fourth Seasons in the Majors, By a Player 25 Years or Older
1. Wade Boggs 23.1 WAR (Age 25-27)
2. Jackie Robinson 22.5 WAR (Ages 29-31)
3. Kenny Lofton 21.4 (Ages 25-27)

And then on the other side of his career, WAR suggests he was still a solid player at age 40, but at age 41 couldn’t get a suitable contract to continue playing.

Most WAR In a Final Season in the Majors, Age 40 or Over
1. Barry Bonds 3.4 (age 42)
2. Ted Williams 3.0 (Age 41)
3. Chipper Jones 2.8 (age 40)
4. Kenny Lofton 2.59 (Age 40)
5. Brian Downing 2.58 (age 41)

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Although Lofton never won a World Series ring, he sure played in an extraordinary number of post-season games. Examples of his standing as a prolific post-season participant:

Most Career Post-Season Games Played as Leadoff Hitter in the Batting Order
1. Kenny Lofton 77 games
2. Derek Jeter 67 games
3. Rickey Henderson 59 games
4. Rafael Furcal 58 games
5. Chuck Knoblauch 50 games

Most Post-Season Stolen Bases
1. Kenny Lofton 34
2. Rickey Henderson 33
3. Omar Vizquel 23
4. Roberto Alomar 20
5. Davey Lopes 19

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Notes on this round’s voting:

–This round was a closely contested one, with evenly-spread support. Every holdover received at least 12 votes. The evenly matched competition helped lead to a particularly spirited discussion among the voters throughout the week, with a total of 322 comments posted in the ballot thread as of the voting deadline.

–For the second week in a row, Whitey Ford, Lou Boudreau and Harmon Killebrew all topped the 25% vote support threshold that earns an extra round of eligibility for a candidate’s bank of guaranteed ballot eligibility. The popular newcomer to the ballot, Joe Gordon, also topped 25% support and thus joins the holdover list without needing to endure, at least at first, the infamous “bubble”, where candidates are vulnerable to falling off the ballot if they receive less than 10% support in a round.

–The bubble list for the next round will be unchanged from this round. Robbie Alomar just missed getting off the bubble, receiving 24.2% of the vote, a vote short of the 25% needed.

–With Lofton elevated to the Circle, and Joe Gordon replacing him on the list of holdovers, that list remains at eleven candidates long. But with a “redemption round” about to start, we will soon have more holdovers to consider.

–For the second round in a row, the support for Harmon Killebrew hit a level not seen before, increasing from 18 votes last round to 23 this time. Roy Campanella also hit a high in support, going from nine votes last round to 17 this time, easily topping his previous best of 14, which he had received in his debut on the ballot.

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The full spreadsheet showing this round’s vote tally is here: COG 1915 Vote Tally.

The vote summary for recent Circle of Greats voting rounds is here: COG Vote Summary 2 .  An archive with details of the 1968 through 1939 rounds is here: COG 1968-1939 Vote Summary .  In both cases, raw vote totals for each past round appear on Sheet 1 and the percentage totals for each past round appear on Sheet 2.

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A spreadsheet listing the full membership to date of the Circle of Greats, along with some of their stats, is here: Circle of Greats Membership . You can also find that same link any time by clicking on “Circle of Greats” at the top of the High Heats Stats home page.

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David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago

Campanella also missed getting off the bubble by just one vote.

I gotta stop playing it cute with my Alomar votes; I was partially responsible for his dropping off the ballot in the first place, and if I hadn’t changed my vote this past round, he’d have gotten off the bubble. Ah well; maybe this time he’ll make it.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago

Ahhh, that was a long slog.
Kenny can rest now.
And I’ve a spot open on my ballot.

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

It was Lofton’s 56th ballot, if I’ve counted correctly, a number exceeded only by Smoltz (57) and Sandberg (59).

Dave Humbert
Dave Humbert
10 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Proves the twice-redeemed can make it.
Maybe there’s hope for Brown and Reuschel after all.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
10 years ago

Guess what, kids? It’s time for the All-Time Vote-Getters Update! As always, “active” players marked with an *. *Craig Biggio – 725 John Smoltz – 658 Kenny Lofton – 608 Ryne Sandberg – 607 *Roberto Alomar – 533 *Eddie Murray – 513 Edgar Martinez – 507 Lou Whitaker – 493 Bobby Grich – 376 Sandy Koufax – 375 Tony Gwynn – 346 Willie McCovey – 336 *Whitey Ford – 268 Juan Marichal – 268 Tom Glavine – 262 Alan Trammell – 239 *Harmon Killebrew – 233 Mike Mussina – 233 Curt Schilling – 224 Nolan Ryan – 220 Ron Santo… Read more »

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I think it’s entirely appropriate there was a steal while discussing Kenny Lofton’s election to the CoG. 🙂

While this past round may have been the most tightly contested top-to-bottom, I’ll still take the 1929 election as the closest at the top:

Santo 22
Banks 21
Marichal 21
Grich 20
Koufax 18
Whitaker 18

5 players within 4 votes of the winner – we’ve not had another round anywhere close to that tightly packed at the top.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
10 years ago

So, I did a really, REALLY dumb thing last night, but didn’t have time to post it. I took a spreadsheet with all of the rounds so far. I averaged each position in voting rank by the average percentage it gets when it is voted upon (i.e., on average, if you finished in 23rd place, you received 1.45% of the vote). Thus, the numbers don’t all add up perfectly, but bear with me. Then I ordered every round, and subtracted the difference from the average. For example, last round, our winner had 36.23% of the vote. On average, our winners,… Read more »

bells
bells
10 years ago

So I’m somewhat of a baseball neophyte, at least in terms of following it closely. One thing I’ve wondered as the CoG process has gone on is ‘why did Kenny Lofton change teams so often when he was clearly so good, even by conventional assessments?’ I mean, he had value up through his final year, and usually when a good player changes teams so often it’s because he’s a problem in the clubhouse, but I’ve never really heard that kind of a reputation for Lofton. Any theories?

David P
David P
10 years ago
Reply to  bells

Bells – Lofton was known for playing loud music in the clubhouse and not caring if it bothered his teammates. That being said, I don’t think it was that teams were trying to get rid of him. In fact it was the opposite. Quality teams wanted to acquire him because of what he brought to the table. There’s a reason he was constantly in the playoffs.

MikeD
MikeD
10 years ago
Reply to  bells

Keep in mind that while he was viewed as a valuable player in real life, he is viewed to have been even more valuable by some members of the advanced stats community.

RJ
RJ
10 years ago

Fun fact I found out about Lofton today: the 7.6 WAR he put up in 1993 is the most ever for a season featuring only one home run (position players, since 1900).

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago
Reply to  RJ

One of three seasons with at least 13 rBat, rBaser, and Rfield

9.9 … Rickey (48, 18, 13)
8.4 … Willie Wilson (19, 17, 24)
7.6 … Kenny (17, 13, 18)

RJ
RJ
10 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Rbaser being the real limiter there. Only ten seasons of 13+ Rbaser ever, all by the usual suspects…. wait a minute, David Eckstein?!

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago
Reply to  RJ

X Factor
____

15 ROE (Reached on error)

2 OOB (outs on bases)

88% SB (29/33)

64% XBT (extra bases taken)
_______

Not bad for a rookie 26 year old selected off waivers.