Game Notes looks back from Monday, 8/25

Monday’s home teams went 2-8. That’s no big deal, but the MLB home win percentage is .520 this year, the lowest full-season mark since 1971. The past 10 years averaged .542 –a two-win difference over 81 games, compared to this year’s figure. Seven of the top 12 teams by overall W% have a better record on the road, including three division leaders.

__________

Some Monday games first, then a look back at some weekend series:

Monday, 8/25

STL 3, @PIT 2 — Trailing 1-0 in the 7th, one out and a man on first, Mike Matheny left John Lackey in the game to sacrifice, and he got it down on a 1-2 count. Historical probability says that particular “success” actually lowered the Cards’ win expectancy. But they tallied three times with two out; Lackey worked a clean 7th, and St. Louis held on for a victory, despite a typically rough 9th from Trevor Rosenthal.

  • Closers have become more fungible. Rosenthal will be the 5th different pitcher in 5 years to lead the Cards with 20+ saves. Pittsburgh, Seattle and Washington have 4 different 20-save men in that span. In all, 74 different pitchers own a 20-save season from 2010-14, with two more likely to reach that mark for the first time. There were 59 such pitchers from 2005-09, and 58 from 2000-04. Only five have 4 or more years with 20 saves in 2010-14, compared to 10 and 11 for the prior spans.
  • Kolten Wong was picked off for the first time in the regular season. He’s 18-2 in steals this year, and tied for 6th in NL baserunning WAR. (And at least this time, he had cause to be leaning.)

@BAL 9, TBR 1 — We know the O’s can mash them taters; tonight’s five extended their sizable MLB lead. But did you know they’re tracking an extra-base record on the other end of the spectrum? With eight triples so far, Baltimore’s on pace for an all-time low of 10 three-baggers. (The current low of 11 was set by O’s in the shortened ’81 season, and tied by the ’98 Orioles.) It’s a perfect combination of team and park: Over the last three years, only Toronto and Houston have hit fewer road triples, and only Dodger Stadium has hosted fewer visiting triples.

  • By the way, Baltimore’s baserunning WAR is 29th in the majors. And their 388-walk pace would be 3rd-lowest of the last 20 years.

MIA 7, @LAA 1 — Remember the screaming baseball animation that ESPN used during the height of home-run mania?

  • Giancarlo is the 12th player to reach 150 HRs by his age-24 season. In that group, Stanton’s 37.9 HRs per 650 PAs trails only Eddie Mathews (39.3) and Albert Pujols (38.1). For those with 100+ HRs by age 24, the top rates are Bob Horner (39.4), Mathews, Pujols, Willie Mays (38.1), and then Stanton.
  • Wade LeBlanc’s Angels debut only raised the pressure on Jerry DiPoto to deal for a starter.

OAK 8, @HOU 2 — After twelve years with no “all-walks” outing of 4 or more batters, we’ve now had two in nine days, with Tony Sipp following Aroldis Chapman. Are southpaws more prone to random bouts of wildness? Six of the last nine such games were by lefties.

COL 3, @SFG 2 — The Rockies’ runs came from two infield hits, four errors, a balk and two sac flies. The Giants grounded into four double plays, wasted Mike Morse’s one-out triple and Jake Peavy’s strong outing, and fell under .500 at home. Despite a 32-42 record since May ended, they still hold a wild-card spot.

TEX 2, @SEA 0 — Another dang ol’ shutout for Texas, their 16th this year — 3rd-most in the majors, despite ranking last in AL runs allowed. Seattle was held to 4 total bases and 5 baserunners, for the 12th and 10th time, respectively — both figures are AL highs, and one short of the M’s club record.

  • Seattle’s yielded 2 runs or less 58 times, the most in MLB — but they’ve lost 14 of those, also the MLB high, and two shy of the AL’s most in the DH era.
  • Austin Jackson hasn’t quite solved their leadoff quandary yet; in fact, he’s lowered their league-worst marks with a .293 OBP and .576 OPS.

NYY 8, @KCR 1 — Suddenly, New York’s upcoming 3-game set in Detroit looms large in the fight for the last wild card.

  • James Shields fell to 9-16, 4.33 in 30 starts against the Yankees. In the last 40 years, only Tim Wakefield has lost more starts to the Yanks.

BOS 4, @TOR 3 (10 inn.) — If my inductive methods were right, Koji Uehara is the first since 2011 to blow a save in the 9th or later by letting in three inherited runners, but none of his own. Clay Buchholz had allowed just two singles and a walk through the 8th, but matched that with one down in the 9th and gave way. Uehara had been scored upon in his prior three outings, a personal first as a reliever.

  • Since signing a big free-agent deal three years ago, Jose Reyes has been almost exactly the same as before: a little bit fragile, but hitting .290 with .345 OBP and 110 OPS+. (As a Met, .292, .341 and 106.) The only people who could find that disappointing are those whose expectations were based on his walk year, which was by far his best with the stick. But none of this makes the $70 million he’s owed for the next three years look any better.

_____

Fri. 8/22: SEA 5, @BOS 3 — Seattle rallied for 5 runs with two outs against Koji Uehara, the kind of miracle finish that builds confidence in an unproven contender. One strike away from being shut out, with a man on and a 1-and-2 count, Endy Chavez fought for a 10-pitch walk. Chris Denorfia singled on 1-2 to load the bases, and Austin Jackson ripped an 0-2 double to score two. Dustin Ackley took a strike and then blooped a single off Brock Holt’s glove for two more and the lead, and Robinson Cano tacked on a full-count ribby hit.

  • Uehara had never allowed more than 3 runs in relief (once, in 2010), nor more than 4 hits (once, in 2012) or 4 baserunners. He owns the lowest WHIP in MLB history for 200+ innings, and his .120 career BA with two strikes was 5th-best for at least 600 at-bats in that split. His one prior 4-hit relief outing was also the last time he allowed two 2-strike hits, 148 appearances ago.
  • Yoenis Cespedes did the Monster Mash.

Sat. 8/23: SEA 7, @BOS 3 — Seattle packed 7 hits and 7 runs into the 4th, then got one just man aboard the rest of the day. Boston’s 7-game home skid is their worst in 20 years; add 3 runs or less in each game, and it ties their worst since at least 1914.

  • Visitors can forget how shallow left field is in Fenway. Kyle Seager had no chance against Cespedes, from deep short.

Sun. 8/24: SEA 8, @BOS 6 — Seattle came into Boston with their aces lined up: Felix Hernandez, Chris Young and Hisashi Iwakuma. That trio, who were all in the AL’s top 10 in ERA, lasted a total of 12 innings and coughed up 11 runs. But the bullpen was masterful, yielding just one run on nine hits over 15 IP, whiffing 22 BoSox and stranding all six runners left behind by the starters. The M’s overcame multi-run deficits in all three games, and with the sweep, they reclaimed a wild-card seat.

  • Four starts could mean nothing, but Iwakuma’s Boston beatings stand out against the rest of his resume: 15 IP, 17 ER and 30 hits. In 67 starts against others, he has a 2.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
  • Seattle’s 2.38 ERA in relief would be the best since the 1990 A’s (2.35). No other AL team in the DH era reached 2.50 in a full season.
  • Boston’s 3.78 R/G at home would be their lowest since 1930. Every post-WWII Red Sox team scored at least 4 runs per game at home, even the ’68 club.

_____

Fri. 8/22: @OAK 5, LAA 3 — Sam Fuld’s three-bagger and Stephen Vogt’s homer created the last three A’s runs, both hit by lefties off righty relievers. Both innings were good times for a matchup southpaw, but Mike Scioscia doesn’t have one. The Angels are the only team this year with no lefty reliever making at least a dozen appearances; their total of 34 lefty relief outings is about half the next-lowest total, and the average is 114. This is normal for Scioscia; since he took the reins in 2000, he’s used far fewer LH relievers than any other team, about half the MLB average. He hasn’t used a LOOGy (50 G, less than 0.8 IP/G) since 2006.

Scioscia’s valuation of left/right relief matchups might be nearer the truth than the league-wide opinion. But it still could be hurting him head-to-head against the platoon-happy A’s. Oakland is 7-3 in this series, scoring 21 runs in 33 IP by LA’s righty relievers. Several A’s regulars hit significantly worse against lefty pitching. But Scioscia can’t exploit that, or at least make Bob Melvin go to his bench. Vogt had come in when the lefty starter was lifted, and he was sure to stay in the game when his spot came up in the 8th. Cam Bedrosian has been murdered by lefty batters, but he stayed in, and Vogt took him deep.

  • I’m surprised that Sonny Gray started the 9th. Yes, he’d thrown just 93 pitches, and his counts have been managed carefully all year, with little deviation from his 100 average. But he’ll soon pass his pro high in innings (last year’s 182), and they want him fresh in October.

Sun. 8/24: LAA 9, @OAK 4The Case of the Crumbling K Rate: Scott Kazmir fanned just one of 20 batters in a brutal outing, extending a worrisome trend. In his last six outings, Kazmir’s K rate is 12%, about half what he had in his first 20 games. He’s reached last year’s total of 158 IP, which he hasn’t topped since 2007.

  • In August, Oakland starters besides Jon Lester are 5-10 with a 5.11 ERA, none topping a 16% K rate; 19% is average for AL starters.

_____

Fri. 8/22: PIT 8, @MIL 3 — Milwaukee drew 8 walks against one strikeout, and were routed. It was two years since the last game with that min/max combo, and six years since the last such loss. Jeff Locke is the first starter in seven years to win doling out 6 walks or more with nary a whiff.

  • Did anyone see this play? — Jean Segura doubled off first base on a foul fly caught by the first baseman, who threw to the pitcher covering. He must have thought there were two outs? I can’t find a clip of it.

Sat. 8/23: PIT 10, @MIL 2 — Pedro Alvarez broke a 6-week homer drought with bombs in consecutive innings. His two-out, 3-run shot in the 4th blasted away a 2-0 deficit, then he went back-to-back with Russell Martin as the Bucs blew it up.

  • Alvarez is the 22nd to have 2 HRs and a steal twice in a season since 1914. Mickey Mantle was the first. (Sorry, Duke Kenworthy, but I don’t buy your credentials.)
  • Milwaukee made 2 runs out of 17 total bases and 17 safe times on base. Only three regulation games since 1914 have made less of so many chances, all exactly one run.

Sun. 8/24: @MIL 4, PIT 3 — Mike Fiers won his 4th start in a row, and the Brewers clawed back a game of their shrinking lead. Fiers let slip a 2-0 lead in the 2nd, on Starling Marte’s two-out homer, but the Crew came right back with their own two-out pair, and Fiers let just one other Buc reach base through the 7th.

  • Francisco Rodriguez served up a homer while notching the save for the 5th time this year, one shy of John Wetteland’s record.

_____

Fri. 8/22: SFG 10, @WSN 3 — Joe Panik’s first homer put the Giants ahead for good, cashing a couple of two-out ground singles off Doug Fister. Panik seemed in danger of losing his job as this month began, playing just 5 of 14 games through August 3. But he’s been scalding it ever since, hitting .458 in the last 16 games (27-59) to reach .316 for his young career.

Sat. 8/23: @WSN 6, SFG 2 — Remember how Tim Lincecum kept pitching well after his second no-hitter? His next three starts totaled one run on 10 hits. But that’s a dim memory. Today’s quick rout made 28 runs in his last 24.2 IP over six outings, sending his ERA up to 4.64 ERA, his ERA+ down to 74, and himself to a bullpen role.

With a 79 ERA+ last year, Lincecum may become the first multi-no-hitter pitcher with an ERA+ worse than 84 in all of his no-hitter seasons. For the other 21 pitchers since 1914 with at least two no-hitters, here are their worst season ERA and ERA+ from those years (ranked by worst ERA+):

  1. Bill Stoneman, 4.39, 84
  2. Bob Forsch, 4.28, 85
  3. Ken Holtzman, 4.48, 87
  4. Don Wilson, 4.00, 88
  5. Carl Erskine, 4.25, 94
  6. Virgil Trucks, 3.97, 95
  7. Steve Busby, 4.23, 96
  8. Warren Spahn, 3.50, 98
  9. Dutch Leonard, 2.72, 99
  10. Hideo Nomo, 4.50, 100
  11. Nolan Ryan, 3.45, 102
  12. Homer Bailey, 3.68, 107
  13. Randy Johnson, 3.65, 108
  14. Bob Feller, 3.50, 109
  15. Jim Bunning, 3.52, 115
  16. Johnny Vander Meer, 3.12, 118
  17. Mark Buehrle, 3.84, 122
  18. Allie Reynolds, 3.05, 126
  19. Jim Maloney, 2.77, 135
  20. Justin Verlander, 3.66, 125
  21. Sandy Koufax, 2.54, 143

(In each case, the worst ERA and ERA+ were in the same season.)

Sun. 8/24: @WSN 14, SFG 6 — At 17-6 with six games left in August, the Nats are chasing the franchise record for that month, 19-10 by the 2012 club.

  • Jeremy Affeldt faced five batters, and each got a hit — the first such outing by a Giant since 1967, when Gaylord Perry was knocked out in the 1st inning.
  • Bryce Harper had two extra-base hits for the first time since April 14; he had 15 such games in his first two years. His total bases per hit are down from 1.77 in those years to 1.50 this season.

_____

Fri. 8/22: ATL 3, @CIN 1 (12 inn.) — Mike Minor went no-no deep into the 8th, but the last of his four walks cost him a win when Billy Hamilton’s dunker delivered the tying run. Hamilton got the Reds’ only other hit in the 11th, and reached third on a steal and a two-out passed ball, but was stranded. Red-hot Justin Upton’s 2-run shot in the 12th made the difference; he also singled during Atlanta’s other scoring frame, and had a two-out triple that went to waste.

  • 12+ innings, 2 hits or less, has now been done nine times since 1914, including this April by Texas, and one of the most famous games ever. This was the first one by the Bravos or against the Reds. Just once before were as many as 6 walks issued in such a game.
  • Cincy’s #3-4-5-6 all went 0-5. Jay Bruce has been wretched all year, and while Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco carried the Reds through the first half, they’ve slumped since the Break along with the rest of the team, which has hit .220 with a .273 OBP.

_____

Fri. 8/22: @LAD 6, NYM 2 — These are things that Mets do: Tied in the 5th, Dan Haren missed on a one-out squeeze try with men on the corners, a gift out that left Haren in an 0-2 hole. But Jon Niese ran the count full, then surrendered a go-ahead single. LA’s first run came after Niese couldn’t close up following Haren’s bunt double play. Three more were gifted later, when shortstop (not) Wilmer Flores threw away the easiest of inning-ending grounders.

Sat. 8/23: @LAD 7, NYM 4 — Adrian Gonzalez came up big with the bat and the glove. After driving in their first run to start the climb back from 3-0, he saved a run with an all-out stretch to complete a DP, and then clocked a two-out, 3-run bomb for the lead.

_____

Fri. 8/22: KCR 6, @TEX 3 — Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera are two of the four who’ve not yielded a homer in 50+ innings this year. The last team with two such pitchers was the ’43 Senators, with several asterisks: they played with the balata ball in the toughest home-run park (only 23 HRs in Griffith Stadium that year), and Johnny Niggeling had served seven dingers before joining the Senators.

_____

Fri. 8/22: @NYY 4, CHW 3 — Once again, the Bombers have gone 11 straight games without topping 4 runs — their second such streak this year (with no other since 1991), and the two longest in the AL this year.

  • New York’s raw numbers have been better at home, but they’ve averaged 3.6 R/G at home, 4.3 on the road. Their 44.5% of total runs coming at home would be their lowest full-year rate since 1959. RISP tells the tale: home, .212 BA/.590 OPS; away, .278/.753.
  • Jose Abreu’s 3-run shot in the 1st was the 13th of his 33 homers coming in his first at-bat of the game against the starting pitcher. That 39.4% rate would tie for the 8th-highest known among 30-HR seasons.

Sat. 8/23: @NYY 5, CHW 3 — The Yankees are 42-27 in games decided by 2 runs or less — the best of all teams, by wins or W%.

Sun. 8/24: @NYY 7, CHW 4 — Bob Cerv, Gary Ward, Brian McCann: The only Yankee pinch-hitters with a searchable walk-off home run in extra innings.

_____

Fri. 8/22: @MIN 20, DET 6 — I’ll be the one who resists football puns; pigskin talk in August just depresses me more.

  • Eduardo Escobar is the first since last July with 5 hits and a homer & triple, and the second Twin ever. Only eight other shortstops have done it since 1914, with Arky Vaughan the only repeater. Joe Cronin is the only shortstop in franchise history to hit for the cycle.
  • First time since 2000 that four Twins had 2 extra-base hits in a game.
  • Who’d have thunk that Jim Johnson could actually worsen the 7.14 ERA he had with Oakland? Out of 17 batters faced with Detroit, 5 walks, 4 hits, 7 runs, 2 Ks.
  • Joba Chamberlain has allowed 18 hits and 9 runs in his last 9.1 IP.

Sat. 8/23 (2nd gm.): DET 8, @MIN 6 — Detroit rapped 17 safeties and rallied to win Justin Verlander’s sloggish return (I don’t care, I’m using it), splitting the day/night twinbill to stay within one game in the wild-card race. Young Trevor May cleaned up his control issues — no walks tonight, after 13 passes in 9 prior innings — but he was still roughed up for the fourth straight time, giving up the lead in the 6th on his 11th hit. The Tigers tackied on late to give Joe Nathan a 3-run cushion; he faced the tying run twice, and all five swings against him produced balls in play, but a win is a win; take it for all in all, we may not see its like again.

  • A note I heard yesterday made me sad: “John Danks is tied for the league lead in earned runs allowed, with Justin Verlander.” This, after J.V. had missed his last two starts. And after two Bengals fill-ins got chewed up and spat out by the Twins, Verlander’s return brought no great relief. He couldn’t close out in the 2nd and 3rd, yielding three 2-out runs, and reclaiming that unwanted leadership. Blaine Hardy bailed him out in the 6th, when he walked the #9 hitter after a 1-2 count to put two aboard for Danny Santana.

Sun. 8/24: DET, @MIN — A big day at bat left Victor Martinez at .328 with 25 homers. Just one DH ever batted .330 with 30 HRs — not Frank Thomas or Edgar Martinez, but David Ortiz, 2007.

_____

Fri. 8/22: TBR 8, @TOR 0 — Drew Smyly faced just 28 batters in a two-hit shutout, his first complete game. He’s allowed 5 runs in four starts for Tampa — 29 innings, 16 hits and 6 walks. David Price has allowed 9 runs (8 ER) in four starts for Detroit, 30.2 IP. Four games is four games … but maybe Smyly got a lift just from being considered an adequate return for the trade of a Cy Young winner. His starting stats in the minors were outstanding, albeit a small sample, as was his big-league relief work.

  • Rays starters have a 2.17 ERA in the second half, with the majors’ best BA (.211), OBP and SLG, and second-most Ks.

_____

Fri. 8/22: HOU 5, @CLE 1 — A couple of two-strike fouls helped Jon Singleton avoid his 100th strikeout and slam a game-sealing homer. Houston’s 4-run 9th cashed two walks and an error, and made them the first since 2012 to score 5 runs with 3 hits or less.

_____

Fri. 8/22: @PHI 5, STL 4 — Just one other time in the last five years have the Phils scored 5 runs or more without an extra-base hit. That one was … interesting.

Sat. 8/23: STL 6, @PHI 5 (12 inn.) — After pitching a clean 7th, Randy Choate stayed on for a three-lefty 8th. But the Phillies’ old guard all got aboard, and Marlon Byrd tied the game with an 0-and-2 hit off Pat Neshek.

_____

Fri. 8/22: @CHC 4, BAL 1 — In 20 starts, Jake Arrieta has just once allowed more than 4 runs. He’s just short of qualifying, but if he did, he’d rank 5th in NL ERA, 2nd in FIP and HR/9, 3rd in WHIP, 6th in K/9. The only Cubs to better his 2.53 ERA since 1970 are Mark Prior (2003) and Greg Maddux (’92).

  • Good day to you, Mister Baseball! Wave to the nice folks out on Waveland Avenue.”

Sat. 8/23: @CHC 7, BAL 2 — Javier Baez went down swinging in his first two trips, reaching 33 Ks in 80 PAs. Let’s have some fun with his free-swinging ways. Through his first 18 games, his swing-and-miss rate was 33%, more than twice the MLB average; the only higher rate in 70+ PAs this year belongs to teammate Junior Lake (who swung his way back to Iowa with 102 Ks in 305 PAs). You might be surprised that his first-pitch swing rate is a bit lower than average, and his pitches per PA a bit higher. His rate of getting ahead in the count is quite normal, and when he does, pitchers beware — 9 for 23, 3 HRs. But he’s up there to swing. Baez hasn’t seen a 3-0 count yet …

… and just as I wrote that, he got 3-0 from Ubaldo Jimenez (who else?), and still struck out. Thirty-four Ks in his first 19 games, another record (and that includes pitchers). Ah, but guess what Javier did in his fourth time at bat? And 7 HRs in his first 19 games puts Baez in the top 20 in MLB history.

  • The Baez homer was just window dressing; Chris Coghlan had the big knock, a two-out, 3-run triple that put Chicago on top by 4-2, before rain came and doubled the game time.
  • Random reliever report: Chicago righty Neil Ramirez, a late-blooming ’07 first-rounder moved to the bullpen this year, has an 0.98 WHIP and 4 runs allowed in 32 innings. He hasn’t blown a lead yet, in 15 chances.
  • After the rain delay, Ubaldo Jimenez relieved for the first time since his 2006 debut, working four strong frames.

Sun. 8/24: @CHC 2, BAL 1 — Tsuyoshi Wada helped the Cubs finish a sweep and lift their home record to 32-33. Baltimore’s lone hit was a Steve Pearce home run in the 7th. Wada had retired 16 straight since a 1st-inning walk, fanning the side in the 4th and 6th en route to a new high of 8 Ks. In 8 starts, he’s 4-1, 2.56.

  • Teams getting one hit or none have won 4 of 19 this year; those 4 wins are a first since 1915. The past four seasons totaled 4 wins out of 92 such games.
  • Both Wada and fellow rookie Kyle Hendricks have started and won at least four of their first eight career games. Only two other Cubs did that since 1972 — Kerri Wood, ’98, and Geremi Gonzalez, ’97.
  • Baltimore’s bulge in the AL East shrank to 6 games over the weekend. They have eight left with the Yanks in September, a series they’ve dominated so far (8-3, 60-31 in runs).
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birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago

Taking off from your note about Giancarlo and his youthful achievement of 150 homers:

Most MLB HRs before 25th Birthday:
(Stanton has the rest of the season to move up on this list)
1. E. Mathews 190
2. M. Ott 176
3. J. Foxx 174
4. M. Mantle 173
T5. K. Griffey and A. Rodriguez 172
T7. A. Pujols and F. Robinson 160
9. A. Jones 156
T10. O. Cepeda and J. Bench 154
12. G. Stanton 150 and counting
13. M. Cabrera 141
T14. H. Aaron and J. Gonzalez 140

RJ
RJ
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Wow. Gonzalez, Cepeda, Jones and (at present level) Cabrera apart, those are all inner circle HoF types.

brp
brp
10 years ago

That note on the Orioles triples blows my mind. I dug around on their team page after reading that and noticed their lack of steals (a part of that 29th rank in baserunning WAR, for sure). Last I looked, David Lough leads the team with 7 steals, and 5 CS. Adam Jones had 6; I was then astonished to see he’s never even stolen 20 bags despite certainly seeming to have the speed for it. Has Showalter always avoided stealing to this extent or is just a factor this year due to their impressive power-hitting? I.e., why risk an out… Read more »

bstar
10 years ago

Monster game by Juan Lagares last night, John. He was everywhere. After the game I checked his DRS and UZR (FG) totals and they sat at +29, +19.3 respectively. This morning Lagares is at +30 DRS, +21.9 UZR. That’s over 2.5 full UZR runs last night for one highlight catch and at least 3 other above-average plays. I love how you can watch a game, see a great play, and then see a likely jump in a player’s numbers the next day. On the telecast, they showed SABR Defensive Index numbers. They’re the defensive stats accumulated to account for something… Read more »

bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

IMHO the newer numbers are closer to correct than the old ones, even though the range of the older numbers “feels” more correct. Personally, I think it’s something every one of us just has to push past. When an outfielder makes a play on the outer edge of his zone in the gap that takes away a likely double, it’s hard for our brain to process that he just saved 1.4 runs (based on the run expectancy change from every base/out state) unless there are actually men on base and two out. Only then do we say, “Hey, he just… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I think you’ve nailed a real issue that’s been bothering me for a while, John. This is just one example, but for current players, b-ref’s fielding WAR too often seems to be off so far from the Total Zone defensive numbers used for past generations that it’s undermining the usefulness of corss-era defensive comparisons. For Willie Mays, WAR uses Total Zone. For Lagares Total Zone suggests Juan is having a season on defense comparable to some of Mays’ best. But WAR for Lagares doesn’t use Total Zone, it uses a system that credits Lagares with a season far better than… Read more »

bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

You can still use TZ for Lagares. He’s +16 both years. So his 2013 wasn’t as good as Mays’ best four years, and he has a ways to go this year before he gets to Willie’s career-best +21 in 1954.

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I think TZ gave Lagares a +1 last year and a +16 this year, compared to Rfield giving him +30 last year and +31 this year. Rfield may well have Juan figured more correctly than TZ; the problem is comparing him to players more than a few years back in time, where we have TZ but not the more recent metrics based on more more detailed game data. For historical comparisons I might be more comfortable using TZ for current players, too. Maybe b-ref should offer an alternative WAR that uses TZ, so we’d have the option to use that… Read more »

bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

birtelcom @16: You’re right. I was looking at the two +16s, one for Lagares in CF in 2014 and the other 2014 overall.

FWIW, I agree with you that using TZ is really the ONLY way to compare recent players to past ones defensively, despite the fact that DRS is a better estimate for today’s players. I can see how I implied otherwise in earlier comments.

Artie @17: There’s a belief out there that TZ underrates great fielders of the past and under-penalizes the bad ones. So you may very well be right about Kong/Dunn.

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I much prefer the current method – I’m pretty sure JA remembers the “triple” that Roberts hit to LF in front of a diving EY Jr. back in May(?). That goes down as “triple to LF” in the books when really it should be “single and 2-base misplay by EY Jr.” which is what I believe how the new system would describe it. Unless I’m misunderstanding how the new system works. As for Mays, we might think he would do better under the new system, and he may very well do so, but Andruw from 2003-2007 had 79 Rfield by… Read more »

bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

It hit me like a bolt of lightning. Considering the game situation, maybe his best ever.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago

Here’s something.

Price vs Smyly.

In Smyly’s first start after the trade, meh, 5.1 IP, 3 ER
Since then:

30.2 IP
11 Hits

Tonight, David price gave up 12 hits in 2 innings.

David P
David P
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I commented at the time of the trade that Smyly was being underrated due to park and defense factors whereas Price was being overrated for the same reasons. Obviously five starts is way too soon to draw any conclusions but so far the trade doesn’t seem to be working out for the Tigers.

But hey, at least Price is saving the horrible Detroit bullpen by pitching more innings per game than Smyly. Oh wait, that’s not true either…. 🙂

David P
David P
10 years ago

With 10 successful bunts in only 139 PAs, Jose Ramirez of Cleveland is bunting at an incredible rate. He’s currently tied with teammate Mike Aviles for second in the AL and only one behind current AL leader Brett Gardner. Which means he could end up leading the league in bunts while only having 200-250 PAs. Since 1925 (when sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flys were no longer counted together), only 17 players have 10+ bunts and a rate of at least one bunt every 15 PAs. The last person to pull this off was Steve Lubratich with the 1983 Angles. Corrected… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago

This is for Clayton Kershaw… Lowest Innings Pitched per Wins Above Average, season. Minimum 100 IP. IpWaa: 22.6 … Pedro ’00 25.9 … Mad Dog ’95 26.8 … Rocket ’90 27.7 … Pedro ’99 27.9 … Zack Greinke ’09 28.2 … Bruce Sutter ’77 28.3 … Dr. K ’85 28.1 … Rocket ’97 28.2 … THE CLAW ’14 (current) 29.1 … Moses Grove ’36 29.1 … John Hiller ’73 29.2 … Randall Johnson ’02 29.3 … Mad Dog ’94 29.3 … Pedro ’01 29.4 … Theodore Abernathy ’67 30.1 … Big Train ’13 30.1 … Randall Johnson ’01 30.2 …… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Ah, yeah, not sure what happened. I’m not actually a PI subscriber, so sometimes I expand a search to get enough entries to ascend/descend and get them all. I might have expanded from 30 to 32 and then missed that there was an overflow over the 20 I could see. And if our numbers are different it is likely that I round up if the second decimal is 5 or above. And I round down or up the IP to a full integer. Clemens in 1990 for example. I just divided the 228 innings, not 228.1. So, 26.8235. Not sure… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Which, dunno why I’ve been rounding down innings. 228.1 can simply be registered in the calculator as 228.333.

I peaked as a mathematician when I was about six years old.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago

Clayton Kershaw’s mulligan-ERA is now 1.34

bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Mulligan ERA+ (an approximation):

Pedro M 2000: 312
GMaddux 1994: 306
GMaddux 1995: 290
BGibson 1968: 280
Pedro M 1999: 279
Kershaw 2014: 266
DGooden 1985: 252
Clemens 2005: 251

Kershaw gets the biggest boost from omitting his worst game because he has fewer IP than anyone else on the list.

bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Kershaw also gets the biggest boost because his 7 ER in 1.2 IP is the worst mulligan performance of those eight seasons.

Pedro also coughed up 7 ER, in a game in 1999 (3.2 IP). How the heck did the Marlins get 12 hits off peak-Pedro that day?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS199907180.shtml

Daniel Longmire
Daniel Longmire
10 years ago

David Ortiz has 30 home runs this year…and has only scored 23 other times. Is this ratio between R and HR (less than 2:1) the worst in history for a 30-home run hitter?

bstar
10 years ago

Daniel: No, the worst ratio of runs to HR for 30+ HR is 1.48 by Mark McGwire in 1997, the year he went to St. Louis. 58 HR and only 86 runs for Big Mac that year. He’s the only 30-HR guy with a ratio under 1.5 for a single season. Ortiz’s ratio of 1.77 would be the fifth-lowest for 30-HR hitters. Trailing McGwire are Tony Clark 2005 (47/30 = 1.57), Matt Williams in 1994 (74/43 = 1.72), and Big Donkey Dunn last year (60/34 = 1.765). McGwire is the career leader for lowest R/HR ratio at 2.001 (583 HR,… Read more »

Daniel Longmire
Daniel Longmire
10 years ago

Nice work, bstar. I do remember “Bye-Bye” from my childhood, and am a bit surprised that Rob Deer didn’t show up somewhere on your list. Turns out that he walked more than memory or logic would dictate.