Game Notes from Wednesday, etc.

@Blue Jays 7, Brewers 4 — Just like old times in Toronto … like, May 1 through June 6, when they averaged 1.6 HRs and 5.5 runs, going 26-9 with three walk-off wins. But something new, too: The long-ball leaders owned none of this year’s 39 walk-off blasts — until Edwin Encarnacion worked a 3-and-1 count against Brad Kintzler, and then lifted off.

 

  • The Blue Jays’ last game-ending homer was more than two years ago — May 1, 2012 — with 163 hit by other teams in between. One team has an active drought of more than three years; as a hint, Albert hit two of their three walk-off bombs in 2011.
  • Encarnacion’s 26th regained a share of the MLB lead, and put him two up on Miguel Cabrera for the combined lead since 2012 (104 HRs).
  • When a guy starts out as hot as Juan Francisco did for Toronto, it just takes a good game here and there to maintain the illusion of ongoing production, at least on the highlight shows. Since June 1, Francisco has hit .188 (12 for 69) with 5 walks and 30 strikeouts, and all 8 RBI coming on 4 HRs.

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@Padres 3, Reds 0 — The Reds rode a 5-win streak into Friartown, but rode out thoroughly whipped. The Padres scored all three in the 1st, on Rene Rivera’s two-out single, and Tyson Ross ran it in from there. Two Todd Frazier singles and Brayan Pena’s two-bagger were the only damage, as Ross went the route for the first time — the first Padre in 20 years to whitewash the Reds.

  • 9th time Cincy’s been blanked, 4th behind Johnny Cueto.

If it seems that complete game has become synonymous with shutout, you’re not far off: So far this year, 36 out of 50 CGs of 9+ innings have been shutouts. This ratio, rising since 2011, reflects two related trends: Total shutouts (individual or not) have risen steadily since 2000, from 4.2% of team games to 7.7% this year. Meanwhile, the CG rate has stayed on its long downward trend, falling from 3.9% to 2.0% from 2000-present.

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@Tigers 9, Athletics 3 — No dramatics this time, nor dominant pitching. Just a bevy of Bengal bingles, chipping away at Oakland’s powerful opening, and then roaring off to six runs in the 6th and a three-game sweep. Torii Hunter needed 3 hits in the worst way, and he got them in the best of times — all two-out ribby knocks, the first two pulling Detroit even. Justin Verlander’s first win since May 30 was more gritty than pretty. After Coco Crisp and Brandon Moss took him deep in the 1st, J.V. gave up seven more hits but no runs through the sixth, twice stranding bags full

  • Miguel Cabrera’s 30th double extended his MLB lead, and gave him a (short-lived) share of RBI honors.
  • Detroit won all three without Victor Martinez, still nursing sore ribs.
  • Four times this year, Oakland’s lost three or four in a row — each with a 3-game sweep, three by current playoff-spot holders.

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Mariners 5, @Astros 2 — Three of the AL’s four best records reside in the West — the top three by run differential, and by B.R.’s Simple Rating System.

  • Chris Young allowed two hits in 7 IP, both solo shots. Homers account for almost 15% of his career hits (highest among actives with 170+ starts), and 19% this year. He’s made 16 starts without missing a turn, going 8-4, 3.11; he hasn’t topped 20 games or 115 IP since 2007.
  • Houston’s Enrique Hernandez hit his first homer. How will typists deal with his familiar name, Kiké? Accents are a nuisance, and many text media drop them — but you can’t omit that one. Even with the accent, I’m a little uncomfortable.

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Cleveland 5, @Los Angeles 4 — Brian Wilson imploded, and the Eries rallied for three in the 8th to claim the series and a split of their western swing. Hyun-jin Ryu’s ribby double keyed LA’s 3-run 5th, and he passed a 3-2 lead to Wilson, who’s had a good stretch since a brutal beginning (one run in 19 games). But Wilson walked Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana for openers, then gave up scoring hits to David Murphy and Mike Aviles when behind in the count. A last-ditch rally got Matt Kemp to the dish with the winning run on second, but his fly died at the track — his third inning-ender with ducks on the pond capping an 0-5 day.

  • Ryu has 18 hits in his two-year career (.202 BA), 5 XBH, 9 runs and 7 RBI — all among the top eight pitchers.

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@Pirates 5, Diamondbacks 1 — The signature outfield game Pittsburghers have dreamed of since Bonds, Van Slyke and Bonilla: Batting 1st through 3rd, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen reached base eight times, drove in all five runs and scored three, with three extra-base hits and a steal. The rook staked Charlie Morton to a 3-0 lead with a double and run in the 1st and a 2-run rope in the 2nd, absolving his pitcher’s failed-sac DP. Morton worked a solid six, doing what he does the best: Keep it down. Eleven of Morton’s 13 batted outs came on grounders.

  • Since 2011, Morton’s 0.47 HR/9 is lowest of all with 400+ IP, and his 1.48 GB/FB ratio is highest.

__________

Rays 6, @Yankees 3 — The Rays have won five in a row, and 14 of 21. They still trail Toronto by 9.5 games, but that’s better than the 15-game chasm of three weeks ago. The smart money still says they’ll trade Price, since both wild cards are even farther away than the division leader.

  • Both teams have scored 330 runs. The Rays have allowed five fewer, 362-367.
  • Alfonso Soriano is obviously pressing, in the throes of a six-week homer drought in which he has one walk and 29 Ks. His season K/W ratio (69-6) would be the worst of his career, by almost two to one. All six HRs have been solos; 10 for 55 with RISP.

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Cubs 16, @Red Sox 9 — This is whose effin’ city? Of all the measures of Boston’s humiliation in this broom-time fiasco — their most runs ever yielded to an NL club; first loss since 2012 scoring nine or more — these may be the best:

  • The Sox scored in four innings before the home 9th, and the Cubs answered each time, winning those frames alone by 12-6.
  • Darwin Barney, batting .196, had four hits (off four different pitchers) and two extra-baggers, his first such combo.

If you’d known back in March that Chicago would end their Hub visit in a virtual tie with the defending champs, you’d have thought Theo Epstein’s rebuild was ahead of schedule. The truth is quite different: their kids are still on the farm, mostly, while Boston has tumbled beyond all imagining. The Cubs are still nine games under .500, buried in their division — but they have played well for a long stretch, with an 18-13 record since May 31.

  • There’s no way to twist a -43 run differential into contention. But there’s some truth to the notion that when Boston has hit, they haven’t pitched, and vice versa. When they scored 5 or 6 runs last year, the BoSox went 26-8, among the AL’s most wins and best percentages; this year, 11-8, 2nd-most AL losses and one of the worst percentages. Last year, yielding 2 or 3 runs, Boston went 37-18; this year, 16-11, the 2nd-most losses and 3rd-worst pct. in the league.
  • Mike Olt’s double and 11th homer gave him 25 hits and a .150 average. The lowest BA ever with 10+ HRs is Adam Dunn’s .159 in 2011. Olt has 10 singles, 4 doubles, and 72 Ks in 188 PAs.
  • Xander Bogaerts was the only BoSock without a hit, as his slump reached 6-77. It’s dropped his season line very near last year’s limited action, but his farm report says he’s better than this. It’s hard to fault the Stephen Drew signing, but it’s not hard to imagine that it had a psychic impact on a 21-year-old shortstop who was hitting well for the season, and especially hot at that time.

__________

@Marlins 5, Phillies 0 — Tom Koehler’s 5th scoreless start, tied for 6th in the majors.

____________________

Tuesday

@Tigers 3, Athletics 0 — Rick Porcello stifled the A’s on 4 hits, with neither walk nor strikeout, for his second shutout in a row and third straight scoreless outing. He collected 17 groundouts in the first eight innings, then changed gears and got the last three by air, using seven pitches in the 9th and 95 for the game. Just one Oakland runner reached second base, on Jed Lowrie’s bloop double in the 2nd; he moved up on a flyout, but expired when Alberto Callaspo bounced to Ian Kinsler, for one of his eight assists. Two A’s saw a 3-ball count, and both made Porcello’s 11th win tied Masahiro Tanaka for the MLB lead.

J.D. Martinez fueled all three runs with a homer and a double, both on the first pitch. He’s 13 for 24 with 4 HRs and 6 doubles on that offering. When they get ahead of him, he’s hitting about .160 with one HR.

  • Last shutouts with no walks or strikeouts: Jay Ballard, 1989; Roger Clemens(!), 1987; Neil Allen(!!), 1986. One other K-free shutout in the last 13 seasons: Derek Lowe, 2012, 22 outs on grounders.
  • Only Porcello and Martin Perez have hurled consecutive shutouts this year; none did it last year. The last Tiger with CG bagels back-to-back was Jack Morris, with three straight in 1986; Porcello is the first since then with three scoreless starts in a row.
  • One other Tiger in this century used less than 105 pitches in a shutout: Armando Galarraga, 2010 — yeah, that game.

Last October, Porcello was (quite logically) the odd man out of the Detroit rotation. But this year, he’s 3-0, 1.19 in 3 starts against those playoff foes, and 6-1, 1.86 in 7 games against teams at or above .500, averaging 7 IP. His improvement was predicted by some — and banked on by GM Dave Dombrowski — due to expected better infield defense (Porcello’s ERA consistently ran well above his FIP), and from a spike in strikeouts last year that brought him up to the AL average for the first time.

So, those predictions are coming true, right? Hmm … not so fast. His ERA now is well under his FIP, even though his GB/FB ratio is down quite a bit. Yet he’s had the DP ball almost on command, inducing twin-killings in 33% of all opportunities — three times the MLB average. Meanwhile, his K rate has reverted to past levels, two Ks per 9 IP below SP norm. His line-drive rate is at a career high, well above the league average. It seems unlikely that all of these trends can last.

__________

@Giants 5, Cardinals 0 — Two two-time Cy Young winners have pitched in the majors this year. And now, each has followed a June no-hitter with eight scoreless innings.

  • The Cards have scored four runs in five games, with three shutout losses. It was a Giants series one month back that started their (latest) offensive slump, averaging 3.17 runs in their last 30 games. They’re next-to-last in MLB scoring this year.

__________

Mariners 13, @Astros 2 — Seattle’s 20-10 in their last 30, best in MLB.

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@Marlins 5, Phillies 4 (10 inn.) — Henderson Alvarez kept the ball in the yard for the 10th straight game, but two late taters served by Kevin Gregg cost him another win. He’s yielded just 8 runs over his last eight starts; Miami’s won them all, but only three wins went to Alvarez.

  • Alvarez has yielded just 4 HRs in 17 starts this year, and 6 HRs in 34 starts since 2013, with a 2.95 ERA in 211 IP despite a modest 5.3 K/9.
  • In the last two seasons, only Felix Hernandez has made 10 straight starts without a homer (11 this year).

__________

@Pirates 3, Diamondbacks 2 — Wade Miley’s heartening gem turned to heartbreak, as the Buccos struck three times in the 9th and walked off against Addison Reed. Miley opened the final frame of his finest game this year with a 2-hitter (no walks, 10 Ks), but left after the first two hit safely, including Gregory Polanco’s first hit off the bench (and just his fourth against a southpaw). Reed got one loud out before Starling Marte doubled home both runners, and took third on shortstop Nick Ahmed’s wild throw. Andrew McCutchen got the obligatory pass, and Ike Davis stepped in for Gaby Sanchez and ripped a base hit to right.

Some skippers would have filled the sacks and faced the right-handed Russell Martin, a DP candidate, with light-hitting righty Jordy Mercer to follow. But Reed, for all his troubles, has handled both sides equally. And loading the bases would have been even riskier than usual, as only two active players have drawn more than Martin’s 11 bags-full walks since 2008.

  • Despite the outcome, it was good to see shades of the 2012 Wade Miley, who logged eight Game Scores of 72+ (tied for 5th in MLB at that level). His best so far this year was 67, with no scoreless outings.

__________

Angels 8, @White Sox 4 (day) — Garrett Richards dug a 1st-inning 3-0 hole, on one mistake to Jose Abreu. But come the 4th, Mike Trout replied in kind, and Albert followed suit. Josh Hamilton joined the fun a little later, with the sort of rainbow that we used to see in Texas, and Richards gave the Pale Hose just two baserunners from the 2nd through the 8th.

  • Since Oakland knocked out Richards in the 1st inning on May 30, he’s 5-0, 1.49 in six games (six scoreless in the no-decision).
  • Second time that Trout, Pujols and Hamilton all homered in the same game. Not quite as much fun, when a win only brings you to 15-24.
  • Abreu has 20 HRs off righty pitchers, 7 HRs in 54 PAs in the 1st inning, and 9 HRs in 69 first trips in a game. In his second and third games against one starter: 11-37, 4 HRs, 2 doubles overall; 1st ABs 6-12, 3 HRs, 2 doubles.

__________

Cubs 2, @Red Sox 1 — The game after Jake Arrieta’s no-hit bid pitted two who’ve pulled it off, Clay Buchholz and Edwin Jackson. Each did his job, but the Cubs got to Koji.

__________

@Orioles 8, Rangers 3 — Steve Pearce hit his third homer in two days, and Nelson Cruz smacked his 26th to keep a share of the MLB lead.

  • Solid platoon work earned Pearce an every-day job, and he’s only raised the bar. Starting 13 of the last 14 games, he has 6 HRs, 15 RBI and a .365 BA. In all, he has 10 HRs and 27 RBI in 164 PAs, with OPS near 1.000. Already “platoon-Pipped,” Chris Davis (0-4 tonight, .205 this year) might be sitting more in days to come.

__________

@Blue Jays 4, Brewers 1

  • Drew Hutchison’s career-high 10 Ks.
  • All nine spots in the Jays order had exactly one hit.
  • Jose Bautista got back in the lineup after seven games out, and homered in his first at-bat.
  • Marco Estrada got back in his peculiar groove, yielding two solo homers and no other runs in his six innings.

__________

Rays 2, @Yankees 1 — A date with David Price was just what the scuffling Yankees didn’t need, and the walks they got from Grant Balfour in the 9th just ended up as more frustration. Price out-dueled Hiroki Kuroda, who logged his longest outing of the year, but took a tough 8-IP loss from James Loney’s first-pitch homer in the 6th. Derek Jeter bagged two of the four hits off Price, and scored their after a leadoff double in the 4th. Again he got to second with no outs in the 6th, on his 5th steal, but two whiffs and a flyout left him there. Price issued 3 walks, matching his season high, and struck out “only” nine, snapping his 5-game streak in double digits. But three whiffs came with a man on second (two by Alfonso Soriano), as the Yanks went 1 for 9 with RISP, and fell to .500 with their fourth straight loss.

____________________

Watch me wallow in the minutiae of Rajai Davis’s walk-off grand slam….

Since 1938, there have been 23 walk-off slams trailing by three runs:

One other by a leadoff hitter: Tony Taylor.

Danny Kravitz hit one for his first career homer, and only slam. Carl Taylor did it for his last homer, and only slam — served up by the same guy as his first, the year before (Ron Herbel). Kravitz and Taylor both were catchers and finished with 10 homers, but only one of them was ever traded for Dutch Dotterer.

Guillermo Hernandez (who missed Monday’s tribute to Detroit’s 1984 champions) gave one up to Dick Schofield, capping a comeback from 7 runs down, which Schofield had begun with a single. The Angels left the Tigers on the field again the very next night, on a Doug DeCinces 2-run shot.

The latest happened in the 14th inning, Jason Giambi off Mike Trombley, powering a 13-12 win via the Yanks’ sixth homer. Bernie Williams tied it in the 9th with his second homer of the game, then walked to fill the sacks for Giambi, who slugged the next pitch. It was the fourth of what would be 13 straight Yankee wins over the division-champion Twins from 2002-03 (plus 3-to-1 ALDS wins in 2003-04).

Highest final score: 1996, Orioles 14, Mariners 13, Chris Hoiles off Norm Charlton. Hoiles had gone 0-5, stranding eight runners. Young Alex Rodriguez hit a reversing slam the inning before, the second of his record 24 salamis.

There have been three that turned around a 4-1 score, but none from 3-0.

Four dates are duplicated in these 23 events: April 13 (1983 & ’85), May 17 (1996 & ’02), June 30 (2006 & ’14) and August 31 (1963 & ’84).

Bobby Thomson hit one … off a pitcher who’d just entered the game. (That sounds familiar….)

 

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zafrom
zafrom
10 years ago

Thanks muchly John for all the detailed and entertaining Game Notes. For Houston’s Enrique Hernández, his nickname is “Kike” without the accent. If you do an internet search on just Spanish-language pages you can find it. For example on sucesospr dot com (the software rejects the actual link, or holds a comment for review?): “El boricua Enrique ‘Kike’ Hernández pega el primer cuadrangular de su carrera”. It’s a common nickname in Spanish, sometimes spelled Quique (wikipedia has a page for Spanish football manager Enrique “Quique” Hernández Martí), and pronounced like KEE-keh with the stress on the first syllable. English has… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
10 years ago
Reply to  zafrom

Zaf:
Perhaps it’s not “Latin” enough, but what’s wrong with just plain, “Hank” for the literal “Henry” (Enrique) while he’s making a living in America? Just a thought…..

Regarding “Jay” Alou, as kids in Catholic school 40-50 years ago, we were all amazed at his “blasphemous” name on our baseball cards? Supposedly, the original Jesus had siblings, too. Unlike the “Prince of Peace”, this Jesus was the inferior of his brothers Mathew (Mateo) and Philip (Felipe); however, he did do a great Clemente imitation pretending his neck was bothering him in the batter’s box 🙁

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

For similar reasons as the hypothetical Mr. Morgan, Germany’s national soccer team will never play against the hosts in the African nation of Niger.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago

John: The PI run you made to retrieve the 23 walk-off GS and down by 3 runs goes back to 1950 even though you entered 1938 as the “from” year.

Jonas Gumby
Jonas Gumby
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Great analysis, and fun grand slam tidbits, John. I can’t help but also mention a very fun walk-off grand slam at the end of the 2011 season. The Dodgers in Arizona.

Scene:

Arizona was down 6 – 1 in the bottom of the 10th, there are 2 outs in the inning and NO ONE is on base.
Arizona ends up winning the game 7-6 with a walk-off grand slam by Tatman himself, Ryan Roberts.
It is especially memorable because Roberts did the Gibby fist-pump during his trot.

Check out this Win Probability Chart:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI201109270.shtml

Jonas Gumby
Jonas Gumby
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

You weren’t kidding, that grand slam meatball was literally Hawkworth’s last pitch.

Jonas Gumby
Jonas Gumby
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

And by meatball, I mean the pitch to load the bases…duh..you just said that.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John: Here’s how to search for additional walk-off GS. On the PI go to Game Finder Player’s Batting Find all matching games Set the years from 1914 to 1949 Check Team won and Walk-off HR equal to or greater than 1 RBI equal to or greater than 4 The results spreadsheet produces 26 such games, all from 1940-1949. I’m sure there are missing games that did not make the list and obviously there are no data prior to 1940. Search the list for GS under Play Description and then check the box scores for those games with a margin of… Read more »

David P
David P
10 years ago

John –

When discussing walk off grand slams while down by 3 runs, you might want to link to this video. 🙂 Puts chills down my spine every time I hear it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3xgy-LbMqQ

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago

In the Cubs-Red Sox game, the Cubs came very close to every player having a run, hit, and RBI – only Rizzo’s 0 in the RBI column prevented them from having a ‘fully filled’ boxscore.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

From 1914 to date there have been 46 games in which every starter had at least one RBI, one run scored and one hit.

Doug
Doug
10 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

The “fully filled” box score (at least for starters in a game) has happened only 46 times since 1914, most recently by Oakland on 9-11-2013, and in the NL by St. Louis on 8-22-2008.

Since the DH was introduced, it’s happened 13 times in an AL park and 5 times in the NL.

The Reds had 11 players fill their box score line on 6-13-1975, including every batting order position, but not every starter (Cincinnati trailed the Cubs 8-6 after 7 innings at Wrigley, but wound up winning 18-11).

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Thanks for the info, guys; I didn’t realize it was *that* rare an occurrence.

Doug
Editor
10 years ago

“but only one of them was ever traded for Dutch Dotterer”

Inasmuch as that reference was apropos of nothing in particular, Dotterer had an RBI in his first and last career games, and an RBI on his first and last career hits (different game for the first hit, which came off COG-elect Warren Spahn).