[Lots of words in here, but don’t miss the table way down under Friday’s White Sox-Mariners score.]

@Mariners 3, White Sox 2 (14 inn.) — Baseball’s oldest cliche is also the best loved: It just takes one pitch to turn a goat into a hero. Brad Miller came up in the 14th toting an 0-for-5 albatross — 0-3 in ribby chances, each with two aboard — and his error starting the home 9th had set up a White Sox walk-off threat. Now, Michael Saunders was on first with a one-out single, and Miller quickly fell into a two-strike hole.

Then he battled, laying off a ball, and fouling four away. Another ball, and Saunders swiped second. At last, Miller got hold of one from Ronald Belisario, and drove a long fly off the track in left-center and over the wall, scoring Saunders with what would be the winning run.

If you believe in momentum within games, look no further than the 8th inning. Jose Quintana and King Felix had swapped zeroes, with just five men reaching base. Then the M’s put their first two aboard, and had men on the corners with one out. But Quintana punched out James Jones, and Jake Petricka got the pinch-hitter Endy Chavez to ground out. Thus Hernandez went run-starved once more back to the hill, and straightaway surrendered two long hits that broke the scoreless tie. Adding to the pain, the M’s blew a rundown that let a fly ball plate another run.

But if you don’t believe in such things, Seattle’s 9th-inning rally backs you.

Ahead 2-0 with Robinson Cano leading off, Robin Ventura had options. Instead of (a) leave in the righty Petricka, who has pitched well this year, but has a big platoon split; or (b) bring in closer du jour Zach Putnam, a righty who’s handled lefties well; Ventura chose (c) bring in lefty Eric Surkamp. But Cano has little platoon split in recent years; he has more power off righties, but that means nothing in this spot. And Surkamp has had no success in the big leagues. He walked Cano on five pitches, and gave way to Putnam … who yielded three hits, the last by Michael Saunders tying the game with two out. So, as usual, I know nothing.

Would you do this? Home 9th, two out, Jose Abreu on second with a man on first, Paul Konerko up. Ventura pinch-ran for Abreu with Leury Garcia, his no-hit utility man. Now, Abreu is slow. But two outs narrows the gap between him and a fast runner. Konerko’s hitting .225 overall, .157 off righties, and the BA against Yoervis Medina is about .200. Unless Abreu was ailing, I just don’t see a window big enough to justify removing the best hitter. Konerko bounced to short. Garcia stayed in and batted twice; he singled in the 11th, but struck out bunting foul when leading off the final frame.

• Seattle pitchers yielded just four hits in 14 IP, a sort of first in team history. All 34 prior M’s games of 14+ IP had seen at least 8 hits. Their longest game on 4 hits or less was 12 IP, a pair of 2-1 walk-off wins in 2011 and 2009 started by (wrong guess!) Jason Vargas. The ChiSox were held to 4 hits or less in 14+ IP three times before, last in 1967 (when the team hit .225).
• Since 1914, 14 other games with 14+ IP and no more than 4 hits or 2 walks, including this 2011 marathon duel with a total of 8 hits.
• Since 2012, Quintana has seven scoreless starts of 7+ IP which he did not win — three more than the next guys (Cole Hamels and Hisashi Iwakuma).

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Brewers 1, @Reds 0 — The Crew roughed out their run in the top of the 1st on two-out hits off Homer Bailey, Aramis Ramirez cashing in Jonathan Lucroy’s 30th double. And then Matt Garza took over. Billy Hamilton swung through his first three offers, and Garza retired the first 12 Reds on just 36 pitches. Brandon Phillips got the first hit, opening the 5th, but Jay Bruce lined right to 1B Mark Reynolds for an easy DP. Milwaukee tried to build the lead in their 6th, but Ramirez was cut down at home to end it. Garza gave up a one-out double to Zack Cozart, but then fanned Bailey and Hamilton to end the 6th. Nothing further marred Garza’s day except two scattered walks, and he pumped his final pitch past Joey Votto to close a cool two-hitter.

• Garza’s 90 Game Score is Milwaukee’s finest since CC Sabathia’s 2008 one-hitter. Before that, it’s all the way back to Teddy Higuera’s 1987 one-hitter (the game’s only runs scoring with two out in the 9th off Bret Saberhagen).
• With Tampa, Garza no-hit the Tigers in 2010, and had a 2008 bid foiled by Hanley’s homer in the 7th. Both times, the only other runner was erased by DP.
• Fourth 1-0 CG shutout this year, joining Zack Wheeler, Henderson Alvarez and Julio Teheran. Last Brewer to do it was Yovani Gallardo in 2011, another two-hitter.

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Marlins 6, @Cardinals 5 — Miami’s rally from a 5-1 hole came down to a rematch of Friday’s decisive battle, Trevor Rosenthal working to Casey McGehee. And it was payback time: McGehee fouled off five straight potential game-ending pitches and delivered the tying single, Donovan Solano scoring all the way from first thanks to the full count. And then, was this a sign of lost confidence in Rosenthal, or just because he’d been worked hard the night before? With McGehee on second, two out and Garrett Jones due up. Mike Matheny went to lefty Sam Freeman, knowing full well that Mike Redmond would counter with Jeff Baker, whose whole career is premised on raking lefties. Baker lined a tie-breaking single into left, and then Steve Cishek put it away with a DP from Yadier Molina.

• Redemption for Solano, too, who started the rally with his third hit; his two misplays in the 9th Thursday let in the tying and lead runs.

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@Rockies 8, Dodgers 7 — Adam Ottavino, come on down! You’re the next contestant on “Stop the Bleeding!” The 7th started with the Rox ahead by six. Then seven Dodgers divvied up four hits and three walks — with a passed ball and a wild pitch mixed in for spice — and suddenly, it was 8-6, bags full, still no outs. But Ottavino pulled through with the lead intact: Two quick strikes on Juan Uribe, then a 6-4-3. An IBB to Andre Ethier, then three strikes taken by A.J. Ellis. Crisis averted. Ottavino took care of the 8th as well, with two more Ks, bagging Yasiel Puig after Dee Gordon had swiped second.

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Giants 5, @Padres 3 (10 inn.) — The Beast is loose. One mighty swing by Mike Morse shattered a month-long homer famine (and 16 games without a run or RBI), along with Huston Street’s perfect season of save tries, and six straight hitless innings by the slumbering Giants. The blow just tied the game, and Chase Headley’s leadoff double gave the Pads a golden chance to walk it off. But Brandon Crawford dived and robbed Yasmani Grandal of a sure hit through the middle, Headley taking third on the first out. Sergio Romo got Cameron Maybin on a first-pitch popout, and then put away Carlos Quentin. To extra time, where Brandon Belt slugged his first homer since May 7 (thanks to a long DL stint), and Santiago Casilla closed it up.

Five innings down, three hits up on the board: Baseball in sunny San Diego, with the slumping Jints in town. Despite an early lead from Gregor Blanco’s surprising solo act, their wasted chances off Odrisamer Despaigne fueled the mood of “here we go again.” Tim Hudson had been nearly perfect, but the home 6th started with two singles that set up Seth Smith’s tying sac fly. The Giants “rallied” to inch back in front — walk, wild pitch, balk, sac fly — but Jean Machi’s magic spell is gone, and Jake Goebbert’s triple (first extra-base hit) keyed a two-run 7th that cued the lock-down late men. Joaquin Benoit handled his chores, extending his own pristine record of leads held while shaving his WHIP to 0.68. The Friars hadn’t lost a game they’d led after the 7th or the 8th, but a one-run edge is fragile, even in spacious Petco Park.

• How long can Despaigne cut against the grain of modern baseball? Three starts, 5 Ks, two runs allowed. He’s the first since Carlos Silva (2006) with three straight games of 6+ IP and no more than one run or two strikeouts. No one’s gone four at those levels since Guy Bush, in 1926, when the NL strikeout rate was 7% — one-third of this year’s NL rate.

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@Pirates 3, Phillies 2 — Andrew McCutchen bagged the bomb he lacked in Friday’s not-quite cycle, and Edinson Volquez turned in his third strong outing in a row, as the Bucs kept rolling.

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@Atlanta 10, Arizona 4 — Dismayed that my patented “reverse hex” roused two slumping Bravos, I tried ignoring their triumphal march through the NL’s dregs. But when a win streak reaches nine, attention must be paid. So … Aaron Harang survived a sloppy, bat-around opening and lasted through the 8th. Andrelton Simmons redeemed a two-error afternoon with four double plays and 4 RBI, including a go-ahead double in the 5-run 4th that ushered Mike Bolsinger down the beaten path that all Snakes starters walk. Three hits by young backstop Christian Bethancourt featured his first extra-bagger, and doubled his career total. And rookie righty Shae Simmons finished up, continuing his meteoric rise from 22nd-round draft pick two years ago to trusted setup man without even stopping at AAA for maps.

• Does anyone know what to make of this team any more? After a 17-7 start came seven losses in a row, and then long, slow slip from first place to one game over .500, out of the wild-card berths. Now they’ve won 11 of 12, rising back to the NL’s 2nd-best record, mostly without Evan Gattis, who tumbled onto the DL just when he was hot. And their next 19 games, just like these last 12, come against teams with losing records.

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@Red Sox 3, Orioles 2 (day) — If Boston thought they really had a shot to get back in the race, would Xander Bogaerts still be playing every day? You can’t do much worse than he has in the last month. He’s 0-25 with 12 Ks in his last seven games, and 9 for his last 95. Today’s misery featured a two-out error that let in two runs, and a whiff to end the 8th with two in scoring position.

Oriole7, @Red Sox 4 (night) — The first 5-hit game by Nelson Cruz featured his 27th HR and 70th RBI, both tops in MLB. Every Bird had a hit and either scored or knocked one in, except Chris Davis, who sank to .201.

• That .201 would tie Mark McGwire for the lowest qualified BA by a player who ever hit 50 HRs in a season. The lowest in a 50-HR follow-up (by my hasty check) is .245, by Greg Vaughn in 1999 (with 45 HRs); that’s with no PA minimum.
• 10 hits, 11 Ks in 5.1 IP by John Lackey, 28 batters faced. Four other games since 1914 had double-digit hits and whiffs from no more than 28 batters; only David Cone did it with 11 Ks. Three others did it in 5.1 IP or less, last by Curt Schilling in a BoSox win.

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@Cleveland 7, Kansas City 3 — First big-league win for T.J. House.

• It went for nought, but KC got a big bailout from Francisley Bueno: Adopting Eries on the corners from a battered Jeremy Guthrie with none out in the 5th, Bueno got by with just one run scoring, then added two more perfect frames while KC tried to rally. In short trials over three years with the Royals, Bueno’s logged 38.1 IP with a tidy 0.94 ERA, while stranding 80% of inherited runners. Hard to earn trust without a decent K rate, but no homers and six walks (three intentional) are a foundation for respect, at least. He had a 2.70 ERA at AAA over the past two seasons.

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Rays 7, @Tigers 2 — Apres four no-hit innings, le deluge washed away Anibal Sanchez.

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@Nationals 13, Cubs 0 — Nineteen hits without a homer tied the franchise record, set by the lamented ’94 Expos. The runs tied this year’s best homer-free output

• Draw no connection between the big trade and this flat performance by the Cubs. Any team could get shut out by Gio Gonzalez, or give up 13 runs with the guys they ran out there.

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Yankees, @Twins 2, Yankees 1 (11 inn.) — Everybody’s favorite: The extra-innings, pointless-wild-throw walk-off!

Okay, then: If my method’s right, it’s the first overtime walk-off error with an out recorded on the play since 2010, when 1B Xavier Nady received a throw to get the out on Craig Counsell’s sac bunt, then threw wildly as Carlos Gomez headed for third. Gomez had led off against Bob Howry with a pinch-hit 4-pitch walk, a great rarity for him then. Nady had been a hero up to that point, with 3 RBI and a lead-switching homer in the 6th.

• How to view the sad news that CC Sabathia is likely out for the season? … You could say that the zero-WAR Sabathia we’ve seen over the last two years would not have helped the Yanks much, anyway. But even replacement-level starters don’t grow on trees, and New York already has two or three such types in their rotation. Even with consistent length from Masahiro Tanaka, Yankee starters have averaged 5.9 IP (right at the AL norm), sub-par in ERA (4.09) and QS rate (48%). They’ll miss CC.

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Friday, July 4

Dodgers 9, @Rockies 0 — ESPN.com’s front page said, “Jurrjens ready for MLB return with Rockies.” Translation: Colorado’s so desperate that they took a flyer on Jurrjens, even though his minor-league stints this year and last showed no sign that he’s ready for prime time. And he wasn’t, serving a 1st-inning cycle — Yasiel Puig broke a 33-game homer fast — and a five-run 5th.

But what’s the difference, when you go up against Clayton Kershaw? Working easy with that early lead, Kershaw surrendered a 3rd-inning single, a walk in the 6th, and one more hit in the 7th. Saving bullets for the second half, he left after 93 pitches in eight stanzas, his scoreless streak now at 36 innings.

• Clayton’s the first with four straight scoreless starts of 7+ IP since Brandon Webb’s five in 2007. For the Dodgers since 1914, the only such streaks of four games or more were Don Drysdale’s record run in 1968 and Orel Hershiser’s ’88 record-breaker.
• Of the 18 such streaks since 1914, only Kershaw’s included a no-hitter; those by Ray Culp and Cory Lidle featured a one-hitter. (Culp took a no-no to the 7th, while Lidle yielded a single and walk in the 1st, then set down the last 25 in a row.) Only Luis Tiant has authored two such streaks. Bill Lee’s 1938 streak included three shutouts on 10+ hits.
• David Price’s 9.0 K/W ratio has received much attention, but Kershaw leads the majors at 9.6 K/W and 11.9 K/9, and his 1.2 W/9 leads the NL. The product of Kershaw’s K/9 and K/W — a silly stat I just invented! — would be the highest ever, edging Pedro‘s sublime 1999.
• Dee Gordon’s 12 bunt hits (in 26 tries) leads the majors by three over Billy Hamilton and Danny Espinosa. Dee added two infield hits in the 5th inning, getting back up to .300 after falling to .274 on June 15.
• Erisbel Arruebarrena! (But can we buy him an “o”?)
• Oh, dear … Looks like Jurrjens wasn’t quite ready to run the bases, either.
• Whupped 9-0 at home on two hits was no fun for the Rockies, but it could always be worse.

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@Athletics 1, Blue Jays 0 (12 inn.) — Our second game this year that reached the 12th with no score, and the second ended there — this one on Nick Punto’s slice double that Melky muffed in the shadows. The bigger news came later: ‘Twas said that Billy Beane would not part with 20-year-old SS Addison Russell, the 11th overall pick two years ago. But he did, to land both Samardzija and Hammel. Reports say Theo Epstein’s take includes last year’s 1st-rounder, Billy McKinney (holding his own at 19 in high-A ball), plus Dan Straily, who was in the rotation all last year but is back in AAA, and a player to be named.

• Oakland got six innings from Tommy Milone, and one each from six relievers. Perspective: From 1914 through 1992, there was just one MLB game in which even five relievers for one team threw exactly one scoreless inning — a gimmick game at the end of 1949, where (as recently noted by HHS reader David P.) the Browns used nine pitchers for one inning each, just because, and six relievers went scoreless. The next game with six came in 1999. Since 2004, there have been 14 such games, three this year. But, hey — at least Bob Melvin didn’t make any mid-inning changes.
• Toronto owns one extra-inning shutout against the A’s — 11 innings in 1980, all by Jesse Jefferson, with a distance loss for Mike Norris. Oakland has three against the Jays — all walk-offs (with a walk involved) in the 12th or later, and all in July.

On the trade: I’m not as high on Samardzija as some are, but there’s no doubt the A’s just got a lot stronger, especially for the postseason. It’s mere coincidence that the deal happened two days after Oakland was swept by the Tigers, but an October rematch surely was part of the rationale, especially after Detroit beat Jesse Chavez for the second time. The environment should be good for Samardzija, as long as he doesn’t try too hard to shine during his first pennant race. Hammel’s track record says “back-end insurance,” but he did all right in the 2012 ALDS. Beane paid a steep price for about two years of contracts, Samardzija being signed through next year. But with a bold stroke to land perhaps the top two SP targets this early in trade season, he’s gained perhaps eight extra starts by the pair, and pre-empted others hoping to improve their hand on the draw. The price of poker just went up.

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@Angels 7, Astros 6 — I think we can cross that off his To-Do list. Mike Trout’s first two big years were light on dramatic homers — none of his 57 were game-winners, and just one tied or brought a lead in the 8th or later. But his zest for the big moment is on view now, after four such blasts in half a season, this his second walk-off — on a nasty 0-2 pitch from Tony Sipp, one of the toughest “gets” over the last two months.

You have to admire Bo Porter’s patience, even if he has little choice. Dallas Keuchel started the 5th ahead 6-5, then gave up his 12th and 13th hits to put Angels on the corners with one out. But his pitch count was fine, and he was throwing strikes, at least. And dadgummit if Keuchel didn’t make C.J. Cron bounce into a 6-4-3, to qualify for his 9th win. (Expecting the bullpen to bring it home was a whole different story.)

• Just rub my nose in it, why don’t you? While Jose Altuve went 0-5, George Springer and Jon Singleton drove in five runs with bomb-bursts in the 4th, reducing C.J. Wilson’s 3-1 lead to rubble. Yeah, well — I did say Singleton was miscast at cleanup, right? (By the way, check out his righty/lefty splits — that’s got to be a fluke, but he did look awful comfy against Keuchel’s slider.)
• Houston reliever Josh Fields returned from the DL and whiffed four of five batters, raising his season rate to 12.9 K/9. But man, his timing stinks. Batters are 10-60 against Fields with bases empty, but 19-53 with someone on. He’s fanned 21% of first batters (7-24, three XBH), but 36% of all others.

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@Padres 2, Giants 0 — Five wins in a row for the Friars, and no sign of life in the Giants’ bats. SD has two straight shutouts, three out of four, and four in their last 10 games, with 14 total runs allowed. And Eric Stults finally got to smile, snapping his six-start losing streak with seven innings on four hits.

• The route affects the feel of the destination. After a 76-86 finish last year, any Giants fan would have signed for a guaranteed 47-39 start, holding a wild-card spot, less than two games from first. But after getting there on four weeks of bad ball, and 19 runs in 11 games, anxiety reigns. Nine games left to the All-Star break, four with the A’s.

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Kansas City 7, @Cleveland 1 — Yordano Ventura tossed eight scoreless innings on 103 pitches. They’ve had him on a short leash, but gave him a chance to finish the shutout. Not this time.

• Christian Colon‘s first start was memorable: A triple and two doubles (each roped into a different corner), three runs and one driven in — plus, starting a DP with men on the corners in a 1-0 game. One other second baseman had a 3-XBH game within his first two. Colon, the 4th overall draft pick in 2010, is known more for his defense: Splitting 60 AAA games at the keystone spots this year, he had 39 DPs and just 5 errors.
• Mike Moustakas is coming around since his brief tune-up on the farm, right? Hmmm … .297 OBP/.733 OPS since his return, but .342 OBP/.865 OPS in his last 20 games. They’ll take it.

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Cubs 7, @Nationals 2 — Jason Hammel worked a solid six, notched the ol’ “GWRBI” with a 2-out hit — and then packed his bags to join a pennant race. Five Cubs had two hits or more, led by Justin Ruggiano (5-2-3-2, HR), coming off his career day in Boston.

• NL Central teams since June 1: Pirates 20-11, Reds 19-12, Cubs and Brewers 18-13, Cardinals 17-14.

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Rays 6, @Tigers 3 — Entering a 5-2 game in the 6th with bags full and no outs, Brad Boxberger got a GDP and then fanned three of his next four, earning the game’s top WPA mark, and the best of all relievers since his own overtime labor four days earlier.

• Boxberger’s 40% K rate ranks 6th among all pitchers with at least 50 Ks.
• Still early days in Drew Smyly’s return to starting, but there’s a chasm in his role splits — most notably, his HR rate is three times higher when he starts. The Rays smacked six XBH out of 25 batters.
• Now, don’t blame me for V-Mart having to depart. Anyone would have noted Wednesday’s home run in his first at-bat after missing three games.

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@Reds 4, Brewers 2 — Same old story: Alfredo Simon doesn’t light up the K board, he just wins. Simon retired Lucroy and Gomez with two on in the 3rd to keep it scoreless, and Billy Hamilton got him a lead in the bottom with his 5th homer. Simon’s first whiff was Kyle Lohse in the 5th; his third and last helped him bust through a jam in the 7th, when the Crew had two on with none out.

• Four straight Milwaukee losses have revived the NL Central race, cutting their leads from 6.5/7.5/9.0 to 4.0/5.5/6.0 over last season’s playoff teams.
• Simon is 11-3, but his record could be even better: He went eight in a 1-0 loss, and the Reds won his three no-decision, when he totaled 5 runs in 21 IP.
• So, this is Billy Ball? A two-run shot, and three whiffs. Against RHPs in his young career, Billy’s hitting .303 and slugging .441.

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@White Sox 7, Mariners 1 — Have you noticed how Chris Sale’s stats are almost the same as Kershaw’s this year?

That’s eerie.

• Sale almost notched the shutout, but got nicked in the 9th after Cano’s double — his first XBH allowed to a lefty since last Sept. 3, another Cano double. He’s yielded just two HRs to lefties in 72 starts — both to Brennan Boesch in 2012. And that’s eerie.
• Sale also logged this year’s 29th outing with 10+ Ks and no walks. Last year’s 45 were a new record, preceded by 2012’s 43.
• #27 for Abreu means Cruz & Encarnacion are due. And I think we can retire the notion of busting him inside. How did he get his hands inside that one? You know who that reminds me of? Derek Jeter, in his prime.

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@Cardinals 3, Marlins 2 — That Trevor Rosenthal has bagged this season’s two highest-impact, game-ending DPs is nice, I guess, but more troubling. Look past his save numbers (26 of 29) to his 1.34 WHIP and .329 OBP, both 2nd-worst (to Joe Nathan) among the 19 guys with 15+ saves. Compared to last year, his K rate’s down from 35% to 29%, while his walk rate’s soared from 6% to 13%. He’s walked home three runs, more than any other closer.

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@Pirates 8, Phillies 2 — Were the Bucs determined to exploit Roberto Hernandez’s trouble with holding runners? Four of the first ten batters reached with second open, and all four tried to steal. Three made it safely in the four-run 1st.

• Andrew McCutchen (5-2-4-1, three XBH) leads the bigs in times on base; leading the NL in offensive WAR for the third straight year.
• Hernandez has yielded 17 steals (3rd in MLB), with only two caught.
• Chase Utley had one of Philly’s two hits, but he’s been sinking since mid-May — .236/.619 in 46 games.

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Yankees 6, @Twins 5 — From 2004-009, Brian Roberts averaged 62 extra-base hits, 20th among all players and 3rd among keystoners. But whereas 48 players in that span racked up 55 games with 4+ XBH (including seven different 2B/SS), Roberts never did. Stigma removed.

• David Huff earned this year’s first relief win consisting of at least three perfect innings, the first by a Yankee since 1993. (Rich Monteleone had four such perfect outings in 1992-93; only Mark Guthrie has more such games since 1989.)
• Samuel Deduno’s 4.2 scoreless innings kept the Twins engaged after Kyle Gibson flamed out, and made this the third game this year with two relievers going 3+ with no runs across.
• Chris Colabello homered and drove in two in his return from AAA. I’ll keep rooting until they pull the plug.
• Something for Joe Girardi to keep watch on: Dellin Betances has fanned 44% when pitching with at least one day’s rest, but 29% with no rest. No Ks out of 10 batters in two no-rest outings in the last week, each with a run allowed.

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@Mets 6, Rangers 5 — On a strangely cool and blustery Independence Night, Mets fans waiting for fireworks had to sit through four hours and nine minutes of baseball — the Mets’ second time this year falling one minute shy of their 9-inning record. If not for an unplanned defensive shift by Daniel Murphy, they might have waited much longer.

Didn’t we just cover this scenario? Jon Niese was knocked out after three batters in the top of the 1st — no-doubter by Choo, an infield hit, and a punch to the ribs. Lucas Duda snatched the lead back that very inning with his 13th dinger, and Carlos Torres chucked 81 pitches to get them through the 5th ahead 4-3. Not a smooth finish this time, but Travis d’Arnaud’s two-run gap shooter in the 8th kept his Vegas vibe going, and set up another “all-hands-on-deck” win.

• Three runs in the 1st matched the season total for Yu Darvish. But that’s been a reversal; for Yu’s career, the 1st is worst, with a 4.91 ERA.
• 27-year-old rookie Eric Campbell ripped two hits off Darvish. He’s 32 for 94 this year, and 13 for 28 playing third while David Wright’s been sidelined. But geez, we still don’t know if his bat makes up for his glove.
• They keep saying that Torres’s workload has eased. Yeah, well … that’s 7.2 IP in the last four days. He’s still thrown 15% more pitches than any other pure reliever, and leads them in batters and innings.
• Adrian Beltre hit the hardest line drive to CF that we’ve seen in Citi Field. At first crack, you thought Granderson might run it down, but this one had way too much legs; Giancarlo would have been proud. That’s 40 ballpark notches on Adrian’s belt, and a .336 BA this year. Since 2010, his .316 BA trails only Cabrera, and he’s 3rd in total bases and XBH, 4th in RBI.

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In the first half* of 2014 (through 7/3), only four teams are winning at a rate that projects to at least 91 wins for the season. Does that foretell anything for the season as a whole?

When comparing first-half and final records, two opposite forces are in play: The smaller sample of games in first halves means more random fluctuation from the teams’ true levels, more teams “playing over their heads.” On the flip side is the tendency of contenders to (a) strengthen themselves via July trades and (b) shift focus away from talent evaluation and player development, towards winning every possible game.

If the recent past is any guide, the latter force is stronger. The first halves of the years 2000-13 averaged 5.9 teams at a 91-win clip, while the final counts averaged 7.1.

• 2013 — 7 … 9
• 2012 — 4 … 8
• 2011 — 5 … 7
• 2010 — 7 … 7
• 2009 — 4 … 7
• 2008 — 5 … 5
• 2007 — 6 … 4
• 2006 — 5 … 5
• 2005 — 6 … 6
• 2004 — 3 … 10
• 2003 — 7 … 7
• 2002 — 10 … 11
• 2001 — 9 … 7
• 2000 — 5 … 7
• Avg. 2000-13 — 5.9 … 7.1

* This year hasn’t yet reached the All-Star break, the conventional “first half” divider. But all teams have played more than half their schedule, averaging 85 games.

Another common measuring stick is a .600 winning percentage, which equates to 97 wins. Only the A’s have that pace so far. Here’s the same first-half/final comparison using a 97-win pace:**

• 2013 — 2 … 2
• 2012 — 2 … 2
• 2011 — 3 … 2
• 2010 — 2 … 1
• 2009 — 2 … 2
• 2008 — 2 … 3
• 2007 — 3 … 0
• 2006 — 3 … 2
• 2005 — 2 … 2
• 2004 — 2 … 3
• 2003 — 4 … 3
• 2002 — 5 … 6
• 2001 — 3 … 2
• 2000 — 1 … 1
• Avg. 2000-13 — 2.6 … 2.2

For a 97-win pace, there is less variation from first half to final. The numbers are too small to be meaningful, but slightly fewer teams have finished there than those who did it in the first half. It’s been 14 years since just one team had a first-half pace of 97+ wins (although both Milwaukee and Detroit would reach that this year by winning their next three), and none of the years studied had a gain of more than one team at this pace from first half to final. Only the 2002 season saw more than three teams finish with a 97-win pace.

** I used a 97-win pace rather than a .600 percentage, because 97-65 (.599) is closer to .600 than 98-64 (.605).