A lotta stuff happened in a long day of baseball. Let’s dig in!

Red Sox 2, @Yankees 1 — An epic duel between Jon Lester and Masahiro Tanaka, with a big twist at the finish. Tanaka was one strike away from nursing a 1-1 tie through the top of the 9th. But he was also living on borrowed time; he wasn’t finishing all his pitches. The first two batters hit liners, but the one by Big Papi turned into a double play. Tanaka then hung one to Mike Napoli, but the slugger swung through it. On one-and-two, everyone looked for the knockout splitter.

But Tanaka shook off Brian McCann’s signal, going to his fastball on pitch #112. And Napoli was right on it: He went with the pitch, taking aim at the short porch in right, and had just enough carry.

Boston’s first run came by the same route, a solo shot by David Ross way back in the 3rd. New York tied in their half without a base hit, a commodity they’d not obtain until the 6th. Three knocks in that frame might have made some noise, but Ross nailed Brett Gardner stealing after his leadoff hit, and Teixeira & Beltran succumbed meekly. Two more Yanks reached in the 8th, but a Jeter DP intervened. And the 9th was pure Koji Uehara: Ichiro managed a liner, but right at the center fielder, and Beltran and McCann fished at splitters in vain.

Not every managerial decision is aimed at the current game. Maybe Joe Girardi had some broader reason for letting Tanaka face Napoli in the 9th, when his stuff seemed to be waning. Or maybe he was thinking of how Tanaka had whiffed him on seven pitches in his last two at-bats, and thought this really was his best match-up. Maybe he knew Tanaka’s splits showed no trend of weakening late; maybe he wanted to rest Dellin Betances, after 23 pitches on Friday; and maybe he didn’t like David Robertson’s splits against righties. I doubt he was caught up in the moment’s great theater, and I’m sure he wasn’t afraid to get booed for making a move. Granting all that, and the fact that Girardi is smarter than I am, I still disagree with his call. My bottom line: Two squared-up balls in the inning; Tanaka’s one weakness is the solo shot; and Napoli has great power to all fields, and tremendous numbers in this park. I don’t want a tiring, homer-prone pitcher in that spot.

• Classic Tanaka escape: Papi’s double put Sawx on third and second with no outs in the 4th. Does this guy even blink? Napoli and Drew both took the air, on seven total pitches, and Bogaerts bounced out. The cheers were deafening, and deserved. In all, Tanaka fanned four of six with someone on base.
• Stephen Drew’s annus horribilis just gets worse and worse: His error led to New York’s run, and his 0-4 (3 Ks) left him 7 for 55, one run, one RBI.
• What does it say about Alfonso Soriano, lifted for Ichiro with one out in the 9th, a spot where a homer is almost the only hope to score off Uehara? Well, it’s been about six weeks since Sori’s last tater, and he’s rapidly sinking into a platoon role, hitting just .203 against righties with a brutal .578 OPS.
• Still no games in the new Stadium with both starters going 8+ IP on one run or less. Just one such game in the old ballyard since 1987: Clemens v. Lackey, in 2007.
• Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood: Tanaka’s 16 straight quality starts have tied Steve’s career-starting record from 1973. Make no mistake, Rogers had better results — 1.68 RA/9 vs. 2.33 for Tanaka, 7 CG vs. 3. But Steve didn’t face a DH; 8% of his batters faced that year were pitchers.
• Ichiro has 45 hits, and 49 total bases. No one with 75+ hits has had such a low rate of bases per hit since Sandy Alomar, Sr. in 1973, when he set the live-ball low of 8 extra-base hits in a season of 500+ PAs.

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Cleveland 5, @Seattle 0 — A 5th-inning single was the only blemish on Josh Tomlin’s first shutout — all that stood between him and a perfect game, Cleveland’s first since 1981 (also their last no-hitter). Tomlin struck out 11, three more than his best in 63 prior starts, and pitched past the 8th inning for just the second time. Tomlin had fanned only three before Kyle Seager’s hit opened the home 5th, with Cleveland already leading 4-0, but 8 of the next 11 Mariners had their tickets punched.

• Tomlin’s 96 Game Score trails only Clayton Kershaw’s no-hitter this year. Cleveland’s last at that level was by Bartolo Colon in 2000, besting Roger Clemens in Yankee Stadium with a no-no into the 8th. It’s the 2nd-best Game Score ever against Seattle, behind only Clemens’s first 20-K game, and tied with Phil Humber’s perfecto.
• How surprising was it? Tomlin had allowed 29 runs in his last six starts, and had no scoreless starts in his whole career. His best prior Game Score was a 75. His K rate is 10th-lowest of those with 400 IP since 2010 (127 pitchers).
• On the other hand … Henderson Alvarez and Mark Buehrle have even lower K rates, and both have thrown no-hitters.
• Tomlin’s 34 balls, by inning: 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 5, 3, 3, 6.
• Cleveland’s last one-hitter (and near-perfecto) was by … Billy Traber?
• Their last CG facing no more than one batter above the minimum was by “Fausto Carmona.”

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Athletics 7, @Marlins 6 (14 inn.) — Two-out hits by Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson broke the marathon tie. Then came the intrigue: After taking that lead, the A’s had two out and two on. Jim Johnson — their sixth reliever used, with 2 IP already — took his first-ever trip to the plate, and whiffed without ever swinging. The Fish had the heart of their order coming up, and Johnson found his level, loading the bases with one out before bowing to Jeff Francis. But Saltalamacchia took strike three, and Donovan Solano flied out on the next pitch — the 431st of this game.

Giancarlo Stanton and Casey McGehee teamed up in the 9th to snip Sean Doolittle’s null string at 24 games, 26 innings. Stanton doubled with one out, and McGehee lined the next pitch into center to tie it up. Doolittle had allowed one hit in his last 13 IP.

• McGehee’s still hitting .390 with RISP (34-87). He’s tied with Yoenis Cespedes with seven tying or go-ahead RBI in the 8th or later.
• Johnson’s 12 batters faced and 45 pitches tied and set career highs, outside of his lone start.
• Oakland’s 1st inning seemed like a staged re-enactment of Friday’s last act: 4 runs on 5 singles, batting around from #1-9.
• But Sonny Gray turned that lead into a deficit by the 4th, yielding a career-high 12 safe times on base in just 5 IP.
• Oakland’s 9-5 in extra innings, in case someone still thinks they “can’t win the close ones.”
• They’ve had 50 wins by game #80 five times before: 1972 champs, ’88/’90 pennants, ’71/’75 division crowns, averaging 100 wins.

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Reds 2, @Giants 2 (11th inn.) — Everyone’s favorite: The double blown save! Matt Cain’s second win of the year died in the arms of Sergio Romo, who walked Joey Votto leading off, and then dealt Brandon Phillips one slider too many. But Aroldis Chapman had to navigate three dangerous hitters, and each got a piece of him: Hunter Pence punched a full-count single to right, Pablo Sandoval walked after fouling off four 2-2 offers, and pinch-hitter Buster Posey ripped a 2-0 fastball into left, for a tying double. Chapman rallied to get three straight outs with the winning run at third, and they played on….

• Got my first look at Alfredo Simon tonight. He looks every bit of his 33 years, if not more; his expression is that of someone walking on bunions. But his fastball hits 97, and it sinks. You wonder how he’s surrendered 12 homers this year, until you remember his home bandbox; in 10 road starts, he’s allowed just 4 HRs, 18 runs, and an OPS near .600. Simon’s “TTO” stats scream “fluke!” at his 2.81 ERA — but just watching his stuff, his success is no puzzle.

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White Sox 4, Blue Jays 3 — Only Adam Dunn solved Marcus Stroman in the first six innings, with a double and a walk. (And Dunn was caught stealing second, to end the 5th with his team down 2-0.) Then came the third time through the order: Jose Abreu’s double … another Dunn pass … and Dustin McGowan’s “relief” effort.

• I’m probably overthinking this, but a first-pitch curve coming in from the ‘pen seems like a high risk of a hanger. Anyway, McGowan hung it; Dayan Viciedo hammered it; and Chris Sale reaped the benefit — despite a typically shaky 9th for whomever the Sox run out there.

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Nationals 3, @Cubs 0 (day) — What’s a Beeler, and why does it have a shutout in the 6th inning? (“Curse you, Dr. Heisenberg — you’ve done it again!“) Anthony Rendon scored twice, including the only run off Beeler with a two-out double, passed ball and wild pitch, and plated the other with his 5th triple. Gio Gonzalez had his best outing this year, two singles in 7 IP for his second straight scoreless game.

• The odds of a 37th-round draft pick reaching the major leagues are long enough. But for a guy like Dallas Beeler — who went in the 37th round out of high school, didn’t sign, and then fell to the 41st round out of college — they must be incalculable. I wish Dallas luck, but he has “organizational arm” written all over his resume.
• But Beeler’s already earned one distinction: First starter to lose a debut on a single unearned run. (Since 1914, of course.) Frankly, I am astonished — I first searched just for Cubs, expecting to find a handful.

Nationals 7, @Cubs 2 (night) — Blake Treinen finally got some backing, so his typical effort — 2 runs in 5 innings — was good enough for his first big-league win. After 68 IP between majors & minors this year, Treinen gave up his first homer — a tying 2-run bomb by Luis Valbuena in the 4th. But Wilson Ramos got the lead right back, belting Jeff Samardzija’s next pitch, and the Nats tallied three more in the last page of that chapter.

• We know that pitchers’ won-lost records don’t mean much. But it’s still kind of funny to think that this year’s prime trade target is 21-36 as a starter.

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Atlanta 10, @Philadelphia 3 (day) — How about these first 5 innings by Roberto Hernandez? One single, one walk, and two unearned runs, on Ryan Howard’s back-to-back errors. Atlanta did get to him a bit later, but their big rips came off Antonio Bastardo, who retired just one of six batters in a 5-run 8th.

• Freddie Freeman scored four times without a hit, the 27th such game in the database. Only Little Joe got to five. Freeman reached on 3 walks and a fielder’s choice.
• A Koyie Hill sighting! You can’t keep a no-bat catcher down for long. As my buddy Doug Schwartz says, if you can’t hit at all, they just assume you’re a good glove. And if you can flail from both sides of the plate, why, you just might play forever.

Atlanta 5, @Philadelphia 1 (night) — Sean O’Sullivan’s big-league return was going well: Tied 1-1 in the 6th, two out and 0-2 on Justin Upton. But strike three wouldn’t come. Upton fouled away three, and then singled. One-and-two on Ryan Doumit, then three fouls and another hit. Chris Johnson’s first-pitch single broke the tie and sent Sullivan off, and the suddenly big-hitting Tommy La Stella greeted Mario Hollands with his third extra-base hit of the day.

• The sweep made Atlanta’s first 3-win streak this month, and leveled their June mark at 13-13, after a 13-16 May. That’s a long stretch of mediocre ball for a first-place team, but mediocrity’s the name of the game in both East divisions so far.

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Tigers 4, @Astros 3 — Ian Kinsler’s 3-run blast with two gone in the 9th capped Detroit’s long, slow comeback from an early deficit. Max Scherzer fanned a season-high 13 over seven stanzas, but one big two-strike count got away — Alex Presley’s two-out, two-run single in the 1st. (Nice hitting, Alex.) The last-gasp rally off Jerome Williams got the Bengals through a second straight game of nada from the Miggy/V-Mart axis. Kinsler was looking for redemption: After a 1st-inning double, he made three inning-ending outs that stranded six.

• 6th last-gasp, behind-to-ahead homer in the bigs this year, and second by a Tiger.
• Eugenio Suarez had three singles with men on base, driving in Detroit’s first run, and setting up Kinsler’s blow.
• Kinsler’s seven straight multi-hit games are one off Andrew McCutchen’s season high, and the most by a Tiger in one season since 1960. Their searchable record is nine — not Cobb (who reached eight three times), but Gee Walker in 1936 and Heinie Manush in ’26.
• Kinsler has 100 hits in Detroit’s 77th game. His career high is 168 hits; he used to walk more.
• Joe Nathan kept the conversation lively by serving Presley’s 4th HR on a 1-2 count to start the 9th, cutting the lead in half, before setting down the next three. He’s allowed a run in three straight games, blowing one save and jacking his ERA to 6.37. But no walks in his last six, so I’m cautiously optimistic.

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Rays 5, @Orioles 4 — Desmond Jennings led off with a homer, and Tampa led wire-to-wire. Two more circuit clouts each came with a man on against Wei-Yin Chen, and let the Rays withstand Balto’s late surge. Jake McGee got the last four outs to save it, starting with Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis, who each went 0-4.

• It’s too late to matter, but Tampa’s won 10 of 17. Erik Bedard could be trade bait, if there’s a GM with a short enough attention span.
• Which of the following Logans have homered this year? Logan Darnell; Logan Forsythe; Logan Morrison; Logan Ondrusek; Logan Schafer; Logan Boone; Logan Johnny.

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@Brewers 7, Rockies 4 — A 3-run shot in the 1st by Carlos Gomez was his first homer in 20 games, which is not to say he was slumping. The Crew certainly aren’t; they’re on a 22-10 run, and a Cardinals loss tonight would restore Milwaukee’s season-high lead of 6.5 games.

• Jonathan Lucroy’s 27th double kept him ahead of pace for the catcher’s record of 47, by Pudge Rodriguez. No other backstop even reached 45.
• Khris Davis hits hard — over half his career hits are for extra bases. Only three others with 100+ career hits can say that — Mark McGwire (.263 BA), Russell Branyan (.232) and Bobby Estalella (.216). Davis has hit .267 so far.

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@Dodgers 9, Cardinals 1 — That’s a run-support “Bingo” for Zack Greinke, covering every number from 0 to 9. And his 25th win in 45 starts for LA — 25-8, 2.69, and the team 32-13.

• Lance Lynn followed one of his best starts with perhaps his worst ever: 7 runs in 2 IP, career-worst 12 Game Score.

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Mets 5, @Pirates 3 — Two-out hits ruined Gerrit Cole’s return, all five Mets runs coming in the first two frames after two were out. Jon Niese almost gave it all back in the 4th when he abruptly lost the strike zone: Three straight walks forced in a pair, with just two strikes sprinkled in. But he pulled out of the spiral to fan the last two, getting Gregory Polanco for the second time on a bounced breaking ball.

• Polanco’s just 3 for 22 off lefties so far, with a 2 walks and 7 Ks; 8 walks and 5 Ks off righties, 20 for 55.
• Now, that’s long relief: After Cole steered the Jolly Roger into rough seas, Stolmy Pimentel kept the Bucs in the game with four overpowering innings, with a career-high 7 Ks out of 15 batters.
• Jeurys Familia has found a groove: one walk, one run in 13 IP this month, and a 2.20 ERA in 41 IP this year. He has nasty stuff, but has often struggled to control it.

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@Rangers 5, Twins 0 — Fans suffering from Darvish Angst got to breathe easy; Twins hitters, not so much — 4 singles, a walk and 10 Ks in his eight innings, stopping a two-start skid.

• Not seen often: Starter Phil Hughes was nicked for 3 runs in the 8th, on a bases-full squeeze and a two-out double by Leonys Martin. Hughes trailed 2-0 after seven, but had thrown just 81 pitches (22 balls), so back he went. Hughes has walked just three in his last 12 starts, including today’s IBB to Adrian Beltre just before the squeeze.
• When these D.C. refugees meet, I think of Texas skipper Ron Washington spending most of his playing career in Minnesota.

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Jason Grilli and Ernesto Frieri were swapped — a classic “change-of-scenery” deal, each side hoping that a fresh start will help their new guy reclaim the success of recent years. I doubt that either will make a big impact this year, but I like Pittsburgh’s side of the deal. The current contracts are about the same. But while Grilli is 37 and not signed beyond this year, Frieri is 28, and still subject to arbitration for the next three years. If Grilli does get back to form, the Angels still will have a tough choice on recommitting to a 38-year-old closer. But if Frieri recovers — and he’s moving to a softer environment — the Bucs would have something of value beyond this season.

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(Apologies if this sounds familiar; I’ve made this case piecemeal in comments, but don’t think I’ve done a full post.)

Mark Fidrych has gotten some press lately, in the discussion of greatest rookie years stirred up by Masahiro Tanaka’s tremendous first half. While any Tigers fan loves to remember The Bird, one little thing always bugs me — the label of “one-year wonder,” paired with the notion that Fidrych could not have sustained his success, due to a very low K rate, as Bill James argued in The Historical Abstract.

Although injuries limited Fidrych to just that one full season, he did maintain his success, in small samples, over the next two years. The injury that cut short his sophomore year was to his knee, not his arm, and The Bird was quite effective both that year and early the next, until he tore his rotator cuff.

In those 14 starts over 1977-78, Fidrych’s results were just like his rookie year: 151 ERA+ (vs. 159), minuscule walk and home-run rates, excellent ground-ball rates.

The sample’s too small to prove anything. It’s quite possible the league would have caught up to him, even if he’d stayed healthy. Maybe hitters would have adjusted by attacking earlier in the count, since he wasn’t going to walk anyone. And maybe they’d have found a way to lay off the darting fastball at the knees, forcing him to throw something they could elevate.

But maybe Fidrych would have adjusted, too. His K rate was already rising when his arm gave out — from 3.5 K/9 as a rookie, to 4.5 K/9 in the next two partial years. That’s not unusual; K rates often increase as a pitcher matures, grows stronger, learns the league.

And here’s something rarely mentioned: Fidrych was a strikeout pitcher in the minors — 40 Ks in 34 IP of rookie ball, 6.7 K/9 in 54 IP at AA/AAA. Look at this clip from his 6/28/76 Monday Night Baseball defeat of the Yankees, the AL’s top offense (and a lineup stacked with eight lefty batters). That’s no slop Fidrych is peddling; he’s got enough velo — it’s the 9th inning, remember — and the ball moves. I don’t see why that guy couldn’t learn to get Ks, if he needed them. Even as a rookie, Fidrych did hike his K rate by about 25% with men in scoring position, versus bases empty.

More than a few pitchers have succeeded early in their careers with low K rates, and then upped their strikeouts. Dave Stieb’s first four years saw a sub-par 4.2 K/9, yet a 122 ERA+; then his K rate jumped to 6.1 in his fifth year, and averaged 6.0 in a six-year span.

What we know is that, in those first 353 innings, Fidrych’s walk and home run rates were historic — 1.78 W/9 and 0.38 HR/9. No pitcher who began since 1922 has both career rates under 1.85 W/9 and 0.45 HR/9. No starter who broke in since 1932 has maintained a combo at or below 2.0 W/9 and 0.5 HR/9. The closest?

• Greg Maddux: 1.80 W/9 … 0.63 HR/9
• Curt Davis: 1.85 W/9 … 0.55 HR/9 … 158 wins, 116 ERA+ and 37 WAR, even though he broke in at age 30

Maybe the scarcity of such careers shows how hard it would have been for Fidrych to maintain those early rates. But try proving that proposition with pitchers who had such low rates early on, but then saw them rise. There aren’t any. Even for just the first two or three years, no other live-ball pitcher had such paired rates. No one else since WWII paired even 2.0 W/9 and 0.5 HR/9 in his first two or three years.

So it’s possible, just possible, that The Bird was unique: A pitcher who could go on winning consistently in spite of very few strikeouts. And consider this: The first full year for Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker was 1978, the same year Fidrych hurt his arm, at age 23. Had he lasted, Fidrych would have had a Gold Glove DP tandem behind him for the rest of his days, instead of Tom Veryzer and Pedro Garcia.

It’s all academic, of course. The Bird’s wing got wrecked, and that’s all she wrote; so in that sense, “one-year wonder” fits the bill. But I had to speak up. With all the bad luck that befell him, in baseball and beyond, I just can’t abide the dismissive notion that his one golden year was some sort of lucky fluke.