(To avoid front-page clutter, I’m packaging this essay with some weekend game notes. Enjoy!)

On Sunday, June 15, Daisuke Matsuzaka started for the Mets against the Padres, but had to leave after one scoreless inning with an upset stomach. New York went on to win, 3-1, with three relievers covering the last eight innings.

Is that a surprising result? What would you guess is the winning percentage of teams whose starter lasted one inning or less without yielding a run?

I checked, and the results are startling: Since 1960, teams are 154-104 with such an abbreviated start, a .597 winning percentage.

It’s a small sample, but it’s consistent throughout this period:

• 1960s … 29-16
• 1970s … 22-19
• 1980s … 27-22
• 1990s … 28-19
• 2000s … 34-24
• 2010-14 … 15-4

The winning percentage has grown with the rise of relief pitching:

• 1960-1989 … 78-57 (.578)
• Since 1990 … 77-47 (.621)

It’s no surprise that the results have improved as teams carry more relief pitchers. But there’s another angle to this that I find more interesting; I’ll come back to that.

The average runs allowed in these games since 1990 was 3.70 R/G. The overall average from 1990-2014 is 4.63.

Now, by stipulating no runs allowed by the starter, we’re basically spotting these teams a scoreless first inning. It’s rare that a starter comes out during a first inning that ends up with any scoring, but none charged to him. And a scoreless first is good foundation for winning.

Still, even if we assume they gave up 3.70 runs per eight innings, that equates to 4.16 runs per nine innings — still well below the 4.63 average. So, what gives?

One simple factor could be that modern relievers are more effective than starters, with an ERA edge of 0.36 from 1990-present. On the other hand, when you have to get eight innings or more from your bullpen, those innings are probably tilted more towards your “long men,” and away from your one-inning aces, than the overall norm. And it’s likely that another starting pitcher was used in many of these games — probably not the best starters, and probably under less than ideal rest conditions.

My hunch is that the success in these games mainly comes from a social aspect of human nature — our tendency to pull together in an emergency. Under crisis conditions, people often are able to give more towards the common good. This theory is bolstered by the fact that these teams also bested the norm on offense, scoring 4.80 runs per game. That’s only a little above the overall 4.63 average, so it could be just noise in a small sample. But it could be another sign of a team pulling together to support a fallen comrade, and to honor the extra effort given by the relievers.

Which brings me back to that bullpen angle: I wonder if these results speak to the modern notion that bullpens fare best when everyone knows his role and when he’ll be called upon.

In the Mets game, Carlos Torres came in to start the second inning, and pitched four innings of one-run ball. Torres has started some games in the past, but he’s never relieved before the fourth inning, nor pitched four innings in a relief stint; he hadn’t gone even three innings this year. Vic Black pitched two scoreless innings; he’d only gone two innings once this year, in extra innings. Closer Jenrry Mejia worked the last two. It happens that he just switched from starting to closing a month ago, and had one prior two-inning save — but you still wouldn’t think that he came to the park expecting to start the eighth inning, especially after being on the shelf for two days with back spasms.

To collect such data and context from the rest of these games would be far too much work, so I won’t make any general claims about how easy or hard it might be for relievers to break from their accustomed roles. Also, you can’t play every day under a crisis mentality; just anyone who pitched for Billy Martin. In that same vein, we must acknowledge a possible hangover effect from these games: the record in the next game or two might be as bad as this record is good.

But I think the popular belief in relief roles and schedules has little basis in proven results. And I think these “all hands on deck” games give some evidence on my side. What do you think?

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Sunday Ramblings

Cleveland’s extra-time magic persists: 5-1 this year, 10-2 last year.

Two rarities in the win: Nick Swisher’s 4th homer broke the 11th-inning tie. Carlos Santana followed with a hit, for his first 3-hit game this year.

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Madison Bumgarner covered both ends of the spectrum: Squeezed home a run in the 2nd, slugged his 2nd homer this year in the 5th.

Buster Posey had to leave in the 4th after taking a hard foul off the mask. Hector Sanchez hit in his turn, smacked the first pitch into the seats.

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A well-earned win for David Price. He persevered after two early homers put him in a 3-1 hole, lasted eight innings with 10 Ks and (of course) no walks. Rays scratched back three times, and Jake McGee saved it by whiffing Jon Singleton.

Price’s six games with double-figure whiffs are two more than any other. He has 121 Ks, 10 walks; best K/W in a 200-K year was 9.58, by Curt Schilling, 2002 (316/33). On the down side, Price has served 15 HRs in 15 starts; yielded just 16 HRs each of the past two years.

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Triple-A vet Brad Snyder has started the last 5 games at first base for Texas, and today got his first homer (and 2-hit game), at age 32, off Hisashi Iwakuma. He’s put up some good years down there, but never got much of a look, just six starts in 2010-11.

ERA as a starter, active pitchers with 40+ starts: 1) Kershaw, 2.62 … 2) Iwakuma, 2.65 … 3) Chris Sale, 2.92. Iwakuma’s .675 W% (27-13) is second to Kris Medlen (30-13, .698).

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Grizzly Adams has come off the DL like a hungry bear in the spring, homering three days in a row.

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I sort of hope the Dodgers don’t bring up Joc Pederson. There’s already a Jace Peterson in the NL West. Both bat left and steal bases; I’ll never keep ’em straight.

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Game-winning sac fly by Casey McGehee. IBB to Giancarlo made sense this time, man on second and one out. But Jared Hughes’s wild pitch was a deal-breaker. (And a bad job by Russell Martin.)

Great escape in top-10th by Miami’s A.J. Ramos, after loading the sacks with no outs, and falling behind 3-and-1 to Martin. A 5-2-3 DP, passed Pedro Alvarez, punched out Clint Barmes.

Seven innings, 2 runs, as Henderson Alvarez maintained his 2.56 ERA — but still no wins except his three shutouts. Eight no-decisions with a 2.98 ERA.

What has come over Vance Worley? The former Phils phenom was relegated to the minors last year after 10 brutal starts, then sold to the Bucs this spring. Earned his way back to the bigs with a 43-4 K/W ratio in 7 starts for their triple-A club. And today, seven scoreless, no walks. His last scoreless start was April 2012.

But Tony Watson couldn’t hold Worley’s lead. Casey McGehee’s 2-out, 2-run two-bagger brought the first runs off Watson in 22 games since April 22, for a 2-2 tie.

Still tied in the home 9th, Miami got their first man aboard, then sacrificed with Adeiny Hechavarria (hitting .263) to bring up Jeff Mathis, a career .196 hitter, .214 this year. They’d used just one man off the bench, but were saving one for the pitcher’s spot, due up next. So Mathis batted, and grounded out. Then the pinch-hitter whiffed.

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A day late: Eugenio Suarez singled in his first time up.

Yes! Detroit nursed Joe Nathan through a scoreless top-9th, despite two hits and two lineouts, no swinging strikes — then made him the winner, after Oswaldo Arcia muffed a fly on the warning track. In his last 5 innings, Nathan’s served 16 hits, 5 walks, 2 Ks out of 36 batters.

Austin Jackson is 5 for 46 with RISP this year; today, 0-3 with a DP and 2 Ks, each with two on.

More two-out trouble for Rick Porcello: Three scoring hits with two outs in the 6th wiped out his 2-0 lead.

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Billy Hamilton led off with a homer, making two straight over two days. With 4 HRs, he’s tied with David Wright and Nick Swisher, and leads Robinson Cano, Alex Rios, Billy Butler, Andre Ethier, J.J. Hardy and Joe Mauer. (All own a 25-HR season and are qualified this year.) Of course, today’s Billy blow came off Marco Estrada, so … y’know. Today’s 3 bombs makes 23 in 84 IP by Estrada, and 11 straight games with at least one.

By the way, do you sort of feel that Billy owes us an inside-the-park job? I sure didn’t think he’d hit four over the walls before even one such thrill ride.

Rob Wooten came into a 5-4 game and allowed six straight singles. But he got pulled, so no chance to tie the known record for surrendering a hit to every batter. Four have yielded 7 hits in such an appearance, including Shawn Camp in 2012 … Wooten is the first since 1988 to “pitch 6 for 6” with all singles. Mike LaCoss pitched 7 for 7 with all singles in a 1979 start … It says here that Harry Shriver allowed 7 hits to 7 batters back in 1922, but still got 3 outs; no play-by-play, so it could be an accounting error, but the pitchers’ BF totals do add up right. There are three documented cases of 6 hits to 6 batters and one out recorded, including this Kirk Rueter start, with Ray Lankford caught stealing after a leadoff single. (Montreal got out of the inning with just 3 runs, thanks to another CS, and they not only got Woody off the hook, but scored 4 in the 9th to win.)

Wooten’s blowup made another chance for Wei-Chung Wang to entertain train-wreck fans, and he did not disappoint, yielding 3 hits and 3 runs. Tony Cingrani bounced out to end the peep show; the last three batters all began with a 3-0 count. Wang came in with a .406 BA and 1.230 OPS allowed; BA went up, but he did trim the OPS.

It all added up to season highs of 13 runs and 19 hits for the Reds. They came in next-to-last in NL scoring, 3.48 R/G.

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Oh, great — Daisuke Matsuzaka had to leave his start after one inning, so let’s wring another 63 pitches out of Carlos Torres! That put him close to 800 this year, about 100 more than any other pure reliever. If he lasts to August at this pace, it will be a miracle.

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I flipped on the Yanks-A’s and got a quick sense of Oakland’s explosive potential. Three-run bomb in the 1st, another in the 2nd. Four runs in the 4th, with all line drives in the inning, including a bags-full DP and Ichiro’s running catch on on the track to end it.

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SATURDAY

Rockies 5, @Giants 4 — Just your run-of-the-mill, last-gasp, come-from-behind, inside-the-park home run. Brandon Barnes’s line drive skipped past Angel Pagan like a flat stone off a pond and skittered into Triples Alley, exploiting Pagan’s aggressive angle and Hunter Pence’s timid backing. By the time Pence flapped his chicken-wing relay from beyond 400 feet, there was no chance to catch the hard-running (if not quite fleet) center fielder.

Back before Barnes pulled the quick-change act, handing Sergio Romo consecutive blown saves for the first time … before Pagan’s game-ending GIDP was upheld … before Rex Brothers pitched an immaculate 8th (3 Ks on 9 pitches) — something less gaudy, but still noteworthy: Buster Posey’s tying 2-run homer in the 5th and go-ahead sac fly in the 7th gave him 3 RBI in a game, for the first time since last July 12.

And before all that, Barnes tested Angel on the other flank; he settled for a split decision.

Barnes also hit this year’s previous inside-the-parker. The last player to hit two in a season with no others in between was Florida’s Kurt Abbott, 1995, in Joe Robbie Stadium on August 9 and 12. More recent players with two in a season: Tony Gwynn, Jr. (2010), Mark Teahen (2008), Jimmy Rollins (2004), Shannon Stewart (1998) and Barry Bonds (1997). Rollins was the last with two in a year batting right-handed.

The last behind-to-ahead IPHR in the 9th or later? Angel knows: Just one other this century, last May 25 — same park, same teams. Angel’s was a walk-off, but with just one out.

• In Posey’s previous 117 games, he hit .260/.329/.362, 10 HRs, 45 RBI. I didn’t know he was in such a long funk.
• The immaculate inning by Brothers was the 5th in the last three years, 13th this century; only Craig Kimbrel has done it twice. No pitcher this century has faced more than 3 batters in an outing and whiffed each on 3 pitches; Sean Doolittle came closest, fanning four on 13 pitches this May 6.

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@Orioles 3, Blue Jays 2 — Bud Norris walked in a run to give the Jays an early lead, but he gave them little else and earned his third straight win. Chris Davis gave him the lead with a 2-run homer in the 5th off R.A. Dickey, right after Juan Francisco’s 7th error. Norris needed 7th-inning help from Darren O’Day, who got Melky Cabrera to ground to short and strand the tying runs in scoring position.

“No, no; you can’t do that” … Trailing 3-1 with one out in the 8th, Jose Bautista was waved around third on Edwin Encarnacion’s double, and was called out at home on a close play, with a dead-on relay by J.J. Hardy. The Jays got a run later that inning, but the tying run died at second. Zach Britton walked Jose Reyes with one out in the 9th, but again Cabrera rapped to Hardy, who turned the candy hop into a game-ending double play. Reyes reached three times and stole his 15th, but never scored.

• No one’s even tried to steal on Britton this year. That’s one cause of his absurd DP stats — 9 DPs in 22 chances, 41%. The total is 2nd among relievers, and the rate is #1 among all pitchers with at least 5 DPs.
• Toronto’s hit just 3 HRs in their last 8 games, going 2-6 and scoring less than 2 per game.

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Royals 9, @White Sox 1 — Don’t look back, Tigers; KC’s won six straight. Danny Duffy tied his career with 9 strikeouts, with results much better than the last time. An overturn preserved his scoreless outing, erasing a run that seemed to score off his relief.

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Pirates 8, @Marlins 6 — After Friday’s debacle in the 9th, Pittsburgh built the levee bigger this time, and they needed it. Asix-run lead had shrunk to two when Jason Grilli was called in to get the last out. Rafael Furcal singled, bringing up the tying run, but Reed Johnson popped out on the first pitch.

• How hot is Cutch? Andrew McCutchen’s seven straight multi-hit games are tied for the longest this year, and longest since 1992 by a Bucco. In 13 games this month, he’s 22 for 53 with 7 HRs, 9 doubles, 18 RBI, helping his team go 9-4 to reach .500 for the first time in two months.
• Cutch’s power has been streaky this year. No homers in his first 15 games, then 4 HRs in the next eight (and three days in a row). Then 32 straight games without a tater, through May’s end, though he still had a .421 OBP in that span. Now this.

McCutchen is not overlooked, exactly; he did win the MVP last year, and got national exposure in the playoffs. But do folks realize where he is right now as a hitter, in historical terms? I didn’t. Now in his 6th season, Cutch has a career 142 OPS+. Just 38 retired modern players had an OPS+ of 140 or better in their first six years (3,000 PAs). Fifty-five did so from age 22-27. Cutch is working on his 3rd straight year of .300 BA, .400 OBP and .500 SLG; just 50 moderns had more. Since 2012, his 162 OPS+ trails only Trout (172) and Cabrera (171), and he leads them both this year. He has yet to have 100 RBI in a season, but that’s just opportunity; his BA and SLG with men on base are .306 and .512, better than with the bases empty.

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@Tigers 12, Twins 9 — Detroit built up a 10-run lead, ripping 10 extra-base hits for the first time in three years, then saw the Twins score 8 runs in their last three raps. But they held fast to their main goal: keeping Joe Nathan glued to the bench. Minnesota scored three in both the 7th and 8th, as Detroit ran through four relievers. But Joe Mauer made the last out both times, stranding five to round out an 0-5 day. He’s 21 for his last 104, and has gone 16 games without an RBI.

Tigers SS Eugenio Suarez broke a 3rd-inning tie with his 3rd homer, starting a 6-run burst in which he doubled home another. He walked and scored in the 5th, tripled and scored in the 7th. Batting 9th, Suarez needed help from the men ahead of him to get a crack at the single to complete the cycle; they came through, but he could not, grounding to third in his last at-bat.

Suarez has five extra-base hits in 8 games; other Detroit shortstops had 6 in 56 games. He’s the first searchable shortstop (since 1914) with a home run in three of his first eight games. Craig Wilson and Geoff Blum both totaled 3 HRs in their first eight — actually, their first six games. Ten others hit 2 HRs within their first eight games, including — better sit down for this one — Johnny LeMaster, who hit his second in game #5, and his third in game #183.

• Anibal Sanchez had surrendered just 7 runs in his last 7 starts against Minnesota, but his only win was last May’s near-no-hitter, busted by Mauer in the 9th.
• Samuel Deduno has beaten Detroit twice in six tries, but he’s been bloodied more often: 8.31 ERA.
• I told you that V-Mart doesn’t like to wait to square his accounts: 17th strikeout Friday, 17th HR Saturday. He’s slugging .605; no DH has slugged .600 since 2007 (David Ortiz). Just two Detroit DHs slugged even .500, and none hit 30 HRs.
• Brian Dozier came in for defense in the 8th, and slugged his 15th homer.
• Danny Santana (5-0-2-3) has started 14 games in CF and 7 at SS. Two Twins have played at least 10 at both positions in a season: Denny Hocking (1999-2000) and Cesar Tovar (1966, ’68).

No cycle today, but some snippets anyway:

• The last cycle by an AL shortstop was in 2006, by Detroit’s Carlos Guillen.
• Three cycles by #9 hitters: Chone Figgins, Jeff Frye and Charlie Moore.

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@Astros 7, Rays 3 — Chris Archer mishandled a throw with two outs in the 3rd, leading to 5 Houston runs. He let the next three ride for free, then served a clearing double to Matt Dominguez.

Five weeks ago, the ‘Stros were a laughingstock — 10-24, seeming headed to fourth straight year of 100+ losses. They’ve gone 22-14 since then. They might still wind up with a bad record; a weak team can play .600 ball for a quarter of a season. But their stigma is gone; opponents no longer look forward to facing the Astros, and I don’t think that’s going to change even if they fall back.

Getting drafty in here: Since joining the every-day lineup on May 31, Tampa’s Kevin Kiermaier is 18 for 46 with 10 extra-base hits. He’s not really a power hitter, but he’s improved with each step up the ladder, and at 24, looks like a good line-drive, contact hitter who’ll take a few walks and play solid outfield. You don’t find many like that in the 31st round of the draft: No other from that round in 2007-10 has either hit a home run or won a game in the majors.

Kiermaier is a long way from getting established, and even the smartest teams won’t find many real players that low in the draft. But I think the impact of Tampa’s draft position has been overstated, both in terms of the high picks they got for years of losing, and the low picks they’ve had in recent years. There’s no denying that Evan Longoria (3rd overall pick in 2006) and David Price (#1 in ’07) have been cornerstones, the top WAR producers during the Rays’ 6-year run of success. But their #2 position player, Ben Zobrist, was a 6th-round pick whom they stole in a trade, and turned into one of the game’s most valuable players. The #2 pitcher, James Shields, came in the 16th, and #3 Matt Garza was a late-1st-rounder. They picked Matt Moore in the 8th round, Alex Cobb in the 4th, Chris Archer in the 5th. Drafting lower does make things harder, and it’s said Tampa’s recent drafts haven’t gone well. But there’s more than one way to skin a pennant.

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@Phillies 7, Cubs 4 — Jimmy Rollins notched one hit for the 9th straight game, but this one meant a little more. His single leading off the 5th was #2,234 of his career, breaking a tie with Mike Schmidt for the franchise record. J-Roll passed #3 Richie Ashburn (2,217) and #4 Big Ed Delahanty (2,214) last month.

• Cubs leadoff men have a .309 OBP, mainly Emilio Bonifacio; they’re next-to-last in runs from that spot. Luis Valbuena has a .390 OBP, including a big game the one time he led off — one of just two games this year when their leadoff man scored 3 runs. But he routinely hits 5th.

Rollins also holds Philly’s doubles mark with 466. He’s 2nd to Schmidt in games, PAs, AB, extra-base hits and total bases, and 2nd to Slidin’ Billy Hamilton in stolen bases (510-436). Third in times on base (Schmidt, Ashburn), in runs (Schmidt, Delahanty) and triples (Delahanty, Sherry Magee). One of five Phils to win an MVP Award, with Schmidt (3), Ryan Howard, Jim Konstanty and Chuck Klein. It’s been a good 15 years for Jimmy.

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Cleveland 3, @Boston 2 — Carlos Santana drew a bases-loaded walk with two outs in the 7th, an end-ran past Cleveland’s 0-11 with men in scoring position, and their bullpen shut down the Sawx for the last three innings. It was Boston’s 9th try at a 3-win streak; they’ve made it just once.

• They gave an error to A.J. Pierzynski on this play? That’s a terrible call, and will be changed if anyone reviews it. You can’t call it “ordinary effort” to catch a wide throw, to the wrong side, with a catcher’s mitt, and then reach back to make a sweep tag. I’d call it a fielder’s choice — and a bad choice by Pedroia, who should have tried for the DP and let the run score. You’re at home, and you still have the best reliever on tap. The inning got away from that point.
• Santana’s 49 walks rank 2nd in MLB; his 37 hits aren’t in the top 200.

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Padres 5, @Mets 0 — Jesse Hahn baffled the Mets with curves in his second career game, rolling up 7 Ks in six one-hit innings for his first win. New York got an infield hit to start the 1st, and a shift-aided pop single in the 9th.

• Had to worry for the Pads when they scored that 5th run — they’re 10-0 scoring exactly four, just 12-4 (now) with five or more.
• They’d never do this, because of the publicity. But Zack Wheeler might benefit from a minor-league tune-up/wake-up call. Don’t know if it’s a focus problem, but there’s just no reason to work behind the Padres. Six of the first 13 saw a 2-0 count.

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SATURDAY NIGHT

@Cardinals 4, Nationals 1 — Randy Choate had made 207 one-batter appearances (3rd on that career list), and 22 throwing just one pitch (5th). But until now, he never had a one-pitch decision. Relieving Shelby Miller with the bags full, two outs in the 7th, Choate got Denard Span on a first-pitch groundout, holding the one-all tie. And before he could even get to the showers, Matt Adams put him on the long end with a 3-and-1 blast against Stephen Strasburg. He left with a man on, but his relief brought none. Lefty specialist Jerry Blevins couldn’t match his counterpart, walking Matt Carpenter. Then Drew Storen, tremendous all year, plunked Mark Ellis with his first pitch, and walked Matt Holliday on five, forcing in a run, and Allen Craig’s infield hit made the final.

• Choate earned this year’s 2nd one-pitch win, the first in two years with three inherited runners.

Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann have combined for 29 starts and allowed 3.73 runs per 9 innings, while their team has averaged 4.97. Yet their combined record is just 11-8. Is that odd, or ordinary?

At first glance, the distribution of their run support seems quite inefficient. The optimal scoring range for NL vs. NL games this year is 4 to 5 runs: Teams scoring that many have won 64% of the games (62% with 4 runs, 67% with 5 runs); additional runs have less marginal value, while teams scoring just 3 runs have won just 37%.

The Nats have hit that optimal 4-to-5 range in just 3 of the 29 starts by this tandem. The other 26 games were split between 6 runs or more and 3 runs or less. In their 11 wins, the average margin is nearly 6 runs; it’s less than 3 runs in their eight losses, with half being one-run defeats. That seems inefficient.

But if you compare them to other NL pitchers with similar run support, you get a different picture. Fifteen others have been backed by 4.7 to 5.3 runs per game, including high performers like Tim Hudson, Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Kyle Lohse and Jose Fernandez. Their combined individual winning percentage is just a bit better than the Nats’ big two, by 63%-58%. On a team wins basis, the Nats have fared a tad better, 59%-58%.

The moral of the story: Teams rarely manage an efficient scoring distribution.

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@Dodgers 6, D-backs 4 — Dan Haren’s 2-out double cleared the sacks in the 4th, breaking a 3-all tie.

• Pitchers batting with bags full were 4 for 56 before today, with one walk against 21 whiffs, and the lone extra-base hit being Madison Bumgarner’s grand slam back on April 11. Last year saw one slam (Travis Wood) and two 3-run doubles (Jon Niese, Wade Miley).

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@Brewers 4, Reds 2 — Mat Latos is alive! Cincy’s second-line relievers, not so much.

• Neither Dee Gordon nor Billy Hamilton stole a base tonight (although Billy tried) — but each hit a homer. Billy also doubled, for his first game with 2 extra-base hits.

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Angels 11, @Atlanta 6 (13 inn.) —

Walks and homers are Ernesto Frieri’s usual mode of arson, but tonight he imploded by serving up everything else. Starting the 9th with a 4-run lead, recently reinstated closer was raked for three singles, a triple, and Freddie Freeman’s tying double, all without retiring a batter. Frieri registered a Win Probability Added of -.787 — worst in the last 10 years by a reliever not charged with a blown save or a decision.

Mike Morin spared Frieri (and his team) from a loss, taking over with the winning run on second and no outs. He fanned Justin Upton (0-7, on pace for 191 Ks), put Evan Gattis aboard to set up the DP, and then got one from Chris Johnson, his league-leading 12th.

• “Least I did better’n Dad”: Cam Rock Bedrosian blew his very first save chance, letting in Atlanta’s tying run in the 10th on three singles, but he got through the inning. Bedrock also blew his first try, charged with 3 runs and a loss, and was pulled for Gene Garber.

Words scarce can describe how badly Johnson has played so far, in spite of his innocent .266 batting average. His -1.2 WAR ranks 2nd-worst in the majors, besting only Jedd Gyorko (who’s hitting .162). Starting all but three games so far, Johnson is on pace for 41 RBI, 36 runs, and 29 GIDP. The double plays would smash the Atlanta team record of 24, and the 77 Runs+RBI would tie famous leadfoot Ernie Lombardi for the fewest ever in a season of 25+ GIDP. Johnson’s also on pace for 15 walks and 160 strikeouts, the likes of which have never been seen. No batter with more than 103 Ks ever struck out 10 times as much as he walked, and none with 150+ Ks drew fewer than 23 walks.

Atlanta paid for Johnson’s career year with a 3-year extension, even though you can count on your thumbs the number of hitters in MLB history who managed a career OPS+ as high as 100 while striking out four times as much as they walked. Johnson’s K/W ratio has been 4 or higher every year, and his career rate over 5.

Johnson makes for an intriguing study. He does tend to hit the ball hard, when he hits it, with a career line-drive rate of 25% (average is 20%). His career .359 BAbip trails only a certain trio known as The Georgia Peach, Shoeless Joe and The Rajah, and tied with Rod Carew (2,000+ PAs). To maintain such a rate would be extremely rare for a player with no speed: Of the 10 players with BABip over .350 in 3,000 PAs, only Joe Votto (48 SB) has fewer than 113 steals; Johnson has 11. He did have a 110 OPS+ over his first four years as a regular, but with far less power than all others who had some success despite 4 K/W. Atlanta seemed to bet that he was an outlier, but they’re losing that bet so far.

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Junior Circuit Fights Back

Remember how the early inter-league results had pundits declaring the end of AL dominance? The AL went just 15-22 through the end of April. Well, they’ve gone 60-42 since then, with a steady edge in both May and June, bringing their season record to 75-64.

Even the AL East, whose decline is widely noted — a combined 138-151 record against other AL teams — has gone 29-23 against the NL.

The NL’s best two teams so far, the Giants and Brewers, are a combined 15-4 against the AL. But the rest are just 49-71, which equates to a 66-96 team season. Four NL teams have winning inter-league records, and 11 have losing marks. Just five AL teams are under .500 against their senior brethren.