Johnny Cueto and prime pitching seasons |

Johnny Cueto is thus far having a pitching season for the ages. While his level of dominance is surprising, Cueto’s past performance coming into this, his age 28 season, did project to a superior performance and possibly a career best year.

After the jump, more on Johnny Cueto and prime pitching seasons.

First off, let’s establish a few facts. Cueto did not come out of nowhere as some would suggest. In his last full season in 2012, he won 19 games and finished 4th in CYA balloting. In each of his past 3 seasons, Cueto has posted an ERA+ better than 135 and a WHIP below 1.200, marks he shares only with Clayton Kershaw among pitchers with 10+ starts in each of those seasons. I think those are sufficient bonafides, even with limited IP, for allowing that a blockbuster age 28 season could be in the offing.

So, if he has the bonafides, what precedents are there for this type of season at this point of his career. To find out, I looked at live ball era pitchers like Cueto, with 150-200 starts and 115-125 ERA+ through their age 27 seasons. Here’s that group.

Rk	Player	ERA+	GS	From	To	Age	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	Tm
1	Fergie Jenkins	125	171	1965	1970	22-27	89	17	91	68	.572	1418.1	333	1203	3.05	2.86	PHI-CHC
2	Gary Nolan	125	200	1967	1975	19-27	38	13	91	57	.615	1377.2	372	894	2.89	3.07	CIN
3	Johnny Antonelli	123	179	1948	1957	18-27	71	20	84	76	.525	1297.2	456	766	3.21	3.47	BSN-MLN-NYG
4	Jim Maloney	123	196	1960	1967	20-27	60	22	106	65	.620	1416.1	605	1302	3.04	3.01	CIN
5	Lefty Gomez	122	186	1930	1936	21-27	104	14	114	58	.663	1519.1	628	912	3.36	3.94	NYY
6	Eddie Rommel	122	170	1920	1925	22-27	102	12	107	87	.552	1590.1	490	383	3.53	4.14	PHA
7	Billy Pierce	121	179	1945	1954	18-27	86	17	79	79	.500	1412.0	650	850	3.32	3.53	DET-CHW
8	Mike Hampton	121	187	1993	2000	20-27	16	7	85	53	.616	1260.2	489	852	3.44	3.92	SEA-HOU-NYM
9	Jake Peavy	121	199	2002	2008	21-27	6	3	86	62	.581	1261.0	407	1256	3.25	3.50	SDP
10	Andy Messersmith	120	156	1968	1973	22-27	52	14	73	57	.562	1222.0	479	945	2.76	3.12	CAL-LAD
11	Ned Garver	119	165	1948	1953	22-27	90	6	71	79	.473	1283.2	525	446	3.75	4.07	SLB-DET
12	Andy Pettitte	118	158	1995	1999	23-27	14	1	81	46	.638	1044.1	376	709	3.92	3.96	NYY
13	Kerry Wood	118	164	1998	2004	21-27	11	5	67	50	.573	1043.0	512	1209	3.63	3.79	CHC
14	Dan Haren	118	154	2003	2008	22-27	6	1	65	52	.556	997.1	232	812	3.72	3.76	STL-OAK-ARI
15	John Candelaria	118	181	1975	1981	21-27	39	7	83	54	.606	1241.1	297	672	3.16	3.57	PIT
16	Johnny Cueto	117	160	2008	2013	22-27	6	2	65	48	.575	964.2	299	753	3.53	4.01	CIN
17	Kevin Millwood	117	160	1997	2002	22-27	6	2	75	46	.620	1004.1	303	840	3.73	3.74	ATL
18	Jose Rijo	117	184	1984	1992	19-27	18	3	83	68	.550	1287.1	498	1096	3.26	3.22	NYY-OAK-CIN
19	Justin Verlander	117	165	2005	2010	22-27	10	3	83	52	.615	1064.1	353	965	3.81	3.61	DET
20	Josh Beckett	116	166	2001	2007	21-27	4	2	77	52	.597	1014.1	337	959	3.74	3.67	FLA-BOS
21	Steve Rogers	116	162	1973	1977	23-27	55	15	60	72	.455	1171.0	367	711	3.28	3.10	MON
22	Jack McDowell	116	166	1987	1993	21-27	43	8	81	49	.623	1162.2	377	791	3.46	3.58	CHW
23	Steve Barber	115	174	1960	1965	22-27	47	15	81	61	.570	1206.2	558	779	3.15	3.50	BAL
24	Jon Matlack	115	199	1971	1977	21-27	65	26	82	81	.503	1448.0	419	1023	3.03	2.88	NYM
25	Wilson Alvarez	115	171	1989	1997	19-27	10	4	71	54	.568	1130.1	561	839	3.83	4.39	TEX-CHW-SFG

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/16/2014.

Interesting group, many of whom went on to complete quality careers, some worthy of HOF recognition. So, right away, we know that Cueto is apparently of a superior pedigree. How did this group fare in their age 28 seasons?

Rk	Player	ERA+	BB9	SO9	WHIP	Year	Age	Tm	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	BB	SO	ERA	FIP
1	Johnny Cueto	295	2.25	9.50	0.708	2014	28	CIN	9	3	2	4	2	.667	72.0	18	76	1.25	3.00
2	Billy Pierce	200	2.80	6.87	1.099	1955	28	CHW	26	16	6	15	10	.600	205.2	64	157	1.97	2.83
3	Lefty Gomez	193	3.01	6.27	1.171	1937	28	NYY	34	25	6	21	11	.656	278.1	93	194	2.33	3.13
4	Justin Verlander	172	2.04	8.96	0.920	2011	28	DET	34	4	2	24	5	.828	251.0	57	250	2.40	2.99
5	Jon Matlack	165	1.70	5.23	1.122	1978	28	TEX	33	18	2	15	13	.536	270.0	51	157	2.27	2.71
6	Jose Rijo	162	2.17	7.94	1.088	1993	28	CIN	36	2	1	14	9	.609	257.1	62	227	2.48	2.93
7	Steve Barber	147	3.31	6.14	1.148	1966	28	BAL	22	5	3	10	5	.667	133.1	49	91	2.29	2.94
8	Steve Rogers	143	2.63	5.18	1.142	1978	28	MON	29	11	1	13	10	.565	219.0	64	126	2.47	3.05
9	Dan Haren	142	1.49	8.75	1.003	2009	28	ARI	33	3	1	14	10	.583	229.1	38	223	3.14	3.23
10	Fergie Jenkins	141	1.02	7.28	1.049	1971	28	CHC	39	30	3	24	13	.649	325.0	37	263	2.77	2.38
11	Eddie Rommel	134	2.22	2.14	1.274	1926	28	PHA	26	12	3	11	11	.500	219.0	54	52	3.08	3.80
12	Ned Garver	133	2.27	3.40	1.129	1954	28	DET	32	16	3	14	11	.560	246.1	62	93	2.81	3.50
13	Andy Messersmith	132	2.89	6.80	1.098	1974	28	LAD	39	13	3	20	6	.769	292.1	94	221	2.59	3.13
14	John Candelaria	128	1.91	6.85	1.162	1982	28	PIT	30	1	1	12	7	.632	174.2	37	133	2.94	2.87
15	Jack McDowell	125	2.09	6.31	1.260	1994	28	CHW	25	6	2	10	9	.526	181.0	42	127	3.73	3.37
16	Johnny Antonelli	117	3.24	5.33	1.254	1958	28	SFG	34	13	0	16	13	.552	241.2	87	143	3.28	4.08
17	Jake Peavy	115	3.01	9.74	1.121	2009	28	TOT	16	1	0	9	6	.600	101.2	34	110	3.45	2.99
18	Josh Beckett	115	1.76	8.88	1.187	2008	28	BOS	27	1	0	12	10	.545	174.1	34	172	4.03	3.24
19	Andy Pettitte	111	3.52	5.50	1.461	2000	28	NYY	32	3	1	19	9	.679	204.2	80	125	4.35	4.22
20	Kerry Wood	105	3.55	10.50	1.182	2005	28	CHC	10	0	0	3	4	.429	66.0	26	77	4.23	4.72
21	Gary Nolan	102	1.02	4.25	1.082	1976	28	CIN	34	7	1	15	9	.625	239.1	27	113	3.46	3.56
22	Wilson Alvarez	101	4.29	6.75	1.388	1998	28	TBD	25	0	0	6	14	.300	142.2	68	107	4.73	4.90
23	Kevin Millwood	99	2.76	6.85	1.252	2003	28	PHI	35	5	3	14	12	.538	222.0	68	169	4.01	3.59
24	Mike Hampton	99	3.77	5.41	1.581	2001	28	COL	32	2	1	14	13	.519	203.0	85	122	5.41	5.21
25	Jim Maloney	88	3.48	7.87	1.271	1968	28	CIN	32	8	5	16	10	.615	207.0	80	181	3.61	2.89

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/16/2014.

For the most part, outstanding seasons with 14 of 24 with an ERA+ of 125 or better, and 19 of 24 with ERA+ of 105. Five of the 24 had BB/9 under 2.00 and five more were below 2.25. A remarkable 17 of 24 had WHIP below 1.200, including 8 below 1.100. There are four 20-win seasons (each one a league-leading total) and 12 of the 24 have a W-L% of .600 or better.

Presumably Cueto will cool off at some point and start showing results that are merely outstanding rather than other-worldly. But, don’t be surprised if he posts a career-best season with some jaw-dropping totals. After all, as we saw 3 years ago with one of his comps, it has happened before.

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mosc

10 years ago

Can BBREF create a spreadsheet of pitching WAR by season age? What’s the total WAR of 28 year olds vs say 32 year olds?

Richard Chester

Reply to mosc

I did so BBREF can do it. I’ll post my results for the AL in 2013 after I eat my lunch.

Author

Doug

The FanGraphs WAR for 2013 starters, by age and IP, up to 21: 4.6 / 234 22: 12.4 / 1252 23: 16.6 / 1492 24: 32.6 / 2536 25: 37.0 / 3168 26: 37.2 / 2888 27: 37.2 / 2964 28: 22.4 / 2147 29: 48.1 / 3502 30: 19.8 / 1711 31: 11.5 / 859 32: 19.3 / 1862 33: 2.8 / 342 34: 14.7 / 1441 35 and up: 20.7 / 2273 So, some the ages (incl. age 28) are a bit anomalous in terms of IP. Would need to capture these results over a number of seasons… Read more »

Reply to Doug

Here are my spreadsheet results for the AL in 2013.
Age/WAR

20/0.1
22/-1.1
23/6.3
24/28.9
25/21.1
26/18.6
27/16.1
28/17.0
29/26.4
30/18.7
31/9.3
32/14.6
33/1.9
34/6.9
35/4.3
36/2.2
37/1.2
38/13.8
39/-0.6
40/4.3
41/2.5
42/0.2
43/2.5

Dr. Doom

Check this blog out from Tango last week. There’s some interesting stuff in the comments (I admit, it was my work, so I’m plugging it a bit shamelessly). It’s a few days out of date, but it was Tango’s/my estimated chances of winning the Cy Young. Hint: it’s not as locked up as some of the numbers might have you believe. I’m not saying that’s correct; I’m just saying there’s a lot of room for change.

Reply to Dr. Doom

Whoops. Forgot to link:

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/bbwaa-cy-young-2014

Interesting stuff, Dr. Doom.

Trying to predict BBWAA results is always a tricky business – not sure that it really lends itself to deterministic analysis.

Only thing is, Doug, that this method accurately predicts every winner since 2006 in both leagues. And not only that, it basically gets the right ORDER each year, too. It’s a pretty funny little tool.

Wow!

I’ll have to give it a closer look.

Editor

John Autin

Doom, your rough peg of 10% for Cueto’s CYA chance feels solid to me. Enlightened though our voters be, I’m sure that having just 4 wins from this impressive run will hurt his chances, along with Cincy’s generally disappointing start. I’d also say that a pretty big correction is due in Cueto’s luck. I’m not calling him “lucky” so far, just taking a cold view of these numbers: — K rate is way up, from 19% in prior career to 29% so far. His prior season high was 21%. Such spikes do happen, but they’re rare. That alone would explain… Read more »

Reply to John Autin

I agree 100%. I had checked the BABIP numbers already, and I was astounded how low they were. I wasn’t aware of the RISP numbers or the HR factoid, but those are similar. In my opinion, this takes nothing away from Cueto. The dude is having an AWESOME season. I just don’t expect him to keep up THIS kind of year forever. Remember when Ubaldo Jimenez was having the greatest pitching season of all time at this point in the year? This reminds me a little of that. It’ll come to earth, at least a LITTLE. But I’m sure it… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

Ubaldo, first TEN starts, 2009
vs
Cueto, first NINE starts, 2014:

71 IP
42 H
07 R

72 IP
33 H
10 R

Ubaldo followed that up with a shutout.
Including that, the rest of the way:

150 IP
122 H
3.83 ERA

David P

Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs has a great article on Fox Sports about what Cueto’s been doing differently this year:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/what-makes-cincinnati-reds-ace-johnny-cueto-so-good-and-favorite-for-nl-cy-young-award-051614

Doug — Interesting stuff. And so are the net SO%, WHIP and BAbip numbers on the guys in your table, comparing their age-28 to their career thru age 27. (No full BAbip data for Rommel or Gomez, so this is regarding the other 23.) Cueto has far and away the biggest age-28 delta in each of those stats: Net SO% — Cueto +10.2 percentage points, next is +5.7. Net WHIP — Cueto -0.54, next is -0.34. Net BAbip — Cueto -.127, next is -.061 (and then -.033). Of course, I’d love to see Cueto keep it up and snub all… Read more »

When Cueto regresses to more normal performance, I suspect he will still have a good shot at a career best season. If nothing else, his change in mindset from the confidence he must have should be worth a few notches in improved performance. Nothing breeds confidence like success (and vice-versa). Add to that the fact that the median ERA+ of his group in their age 28 season is well north of the upper bound of their career ERA+ prior to that season, and you get a picture of solid pitchers entering their prime years and coming into their own as… Read more »

1st season rookies, current WAR leaders:

2.1 Tanaka
1.1 Jose Abreu
1.1 Yangervis Solarte
0.7 Aaron Barrett
0.4 James Jones

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

…posted that on the wrong page – sorry..

James Jones at 0.4 WAR. Not bad for 35 PA.

This kid looks great. Reminds me of Mickey Rivers. Except that he doesn’t look like an old man when he’s just walking.

PaulE

Oddity? As well as many of these guys pitched, only Jenkins led his league in CG’s.
Gary Nolan: what might have been….
Steve Barber didn’t see the mound in 1966 WS despite his 147 ERA+. The Orioles used 4 pitchers to hold the Dodgers to 2 runs in 36 innings.
Cueto has overshadowed Szmardija (sic?) and his 1.42 ERA and hardluck 0-3.

Steven

Reply to PaulE

In 1966, Barber was pretty much done by the All-Star break. He started the season 10-2, then recurring arm miseries caught up with him. He only pitched a few times in the second half of the year.