@Royals 1, Orioles 0 — Danny Duffy was perfect into the 7th, dueling Bud Norris with strong defensive backing, and Greg Holland worked through his own problems in the 9th, getting the last two outs on strikes with the tying run on third.

Twice through the order without a scratch went Duffy, whose two prior starts this year totaled 10 IP, 2 runs on 4 hits. Nick Markakis began the 7th with an opposite-field line drive that Alex Gordon snared with a lunge across the foul line, and Manny Machado watched a well-placed fastball for strike three, just Duffy’s second whiff. At last, Adam Jones rolled a grounder up the middle, past Alcides Escobar, for a clean hit. Deep breath; exhale: Chris Davis up, and now it’s all about the 1-0 score. The count ran full, the third time Duffy reached three balls on Davis, and fifth overall. But the slugger popped to Escobar.

And all the while, Norris mowed through the Royals, surrendering just two hits after an opening run. In the 8th, Nelson Cruz battled for seven pitches to earn a leadoff single, sending Duffy to the dugout with a standing ovation. Wade Davis brushed the threat aside with three quick outs, two Ks. Holland opened the save try with a whiff, then walked Markakis, who raced to third on Machado’s hit to right. A long at-bat by Jones saw KC skipper Ned Yost tossed, but Jones went down swinging. Holland wanted no part of Davis, and he walked, pushing the lead run up to second base. But Cruz went down easy, Holland’s 25th strikeout in 16 innings.

• Second walk-free start of Duffy’s 34 outings. Control has been his main woe in the bigs so far, with 93 walks in 176 IP. But Baltimore can neutralize such issues.
• How many pitchers have Duffy’s logical progression? His ERA was 1.57 in rookie ball, 2.20 in class A, 2.94 in high-A, 3.23 in AA, 3.74 in AAA, and 4.46 in MLB.
• Through six full innings, one strikeout by each side.

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@St. Louis 4, Atlanta 1 — Shelby Miller went 7 innings for his 6th win, and the Cards improved to 4-1 against Atlanta, who scored one run or less for a MLB-high 14th time. Kolten Wong had a key stolen base and notched a second straight 2-hit game since being recalled, and Peter Bourjos’s bunt hit cashed in a triple by burly Matt Adams. Randy Choate came on to face Freddie Freeman as the tying run in the 8th and got a first-pitch 4-6-3.

For Atlanta, Andrelton Simmons (3-for-3) and Aaron Harang were the fulcrum of two key innings. Amateur Hour gave them a free run in the 2nd. On Harang’s surprising 2-out single, Simmons deked Matt Holliday into throwing behind him, then broke for third; Wong had no angle for a throw, but threw it away all the same. (There’s two outs, guys, and the next man up is batting .212. Take a breath.)

Tied in the 5th, Simmons led off with a double. Harang was hitting 8th, and tried to sacrifice, which went for a disputed double play. Forget the result; you’re bunting for Tyler Pastornicky? With Aaron Harang? He can’t hit, but he’s no bunter, either: B-R showed 98 sacs attempted, 52 sac bunts, 23 strikeouts, 5 DPs, no hits, 4 times reached on error. Trading an out to get the man to third might have some value in that particular situation, despite the run expectancy tables. But with Harang’s 53% sac-bunt success rate and some chance of erasing the lead runner, that’s an awful play.

Wait, there’s more: Harang had 23 prior PAs with a man on 2nd and less than two outs. When he tried to bunt, he moved the runner up 5 of 11 times (5 sacs, 6 Ks, one run scoring on a wild throw). When he didn’t try to bunt, he moved the runner up 8 of 12 times — one RBI hit, 7 advancing groundouts, one grounder with the lead man thrown out, and 3 whiffs. Those are tiny samples, but the advancing grounders are no surprise: 70% of Harang’s career balls in play (non-sac) were grounders, and 84% of his balls in play went up the middle or to the right side. This bunt attempt made no sense.

• Bad days: Evan Gattis went 0-4 and overthrew a double-steal to score the lead run in the 6th. The Upton brothers combined for 0 of 8, 6 Ks and a GDP.

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@Diamondbacks 18, Dodgers 7 — Gadzooks, what a 2nd inning for Clayton Kershaw! Seven runs, three triples, two four-pitch walks to Cody Ross, a balk…. Arizona built a 9-2 lead, then saw LA slash that to two and take five cracks at tying. But they got no closer, and the Snakes struck again for 4 runs in the 7th, starting with two outs and none on,

• The Kershaw mauling snapped the longest active streak with 5+ innings at 68 games, and was the second time he’s ever failed to get through two innings.
• Paul Goldschmidt set personal bests and tied this year’s MLB highs with 4 extra-base hits and 12 total bases (2 HRs, 2 doubles). His second HR set club game records of 18 runs and 13 extra-base hits, the latter tied for the most since this 1999 Coorsfest.
• Yasiel Puig’s 13th first-pitch HR, out of 28 career. His 8-game XBH streak is one from the Dodgers’ searchable record, set by Jack Fournier in 1925 and tied by John Roseboro(?!) in 1961. (Fournier’s 9-game streak had the added beauty of exactly one XBH per game, all packed into a one-week span, with three doubleheaders.)
• 3 triples tied Arizona’s record for one game. Teams with exactly 3 triples have a .795 W% since 1914 (1,276-329). With exactly 3 HRs, .757 (11,171-3,591).

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@Phillies 12, Reds 1 — Yeah, but Cincinnati scored first. Cole Hamels punched out ten for his first win this year and 100th of his career. Domonic Brown’s home run on 3-and-0 from Homer Bailey anchored a 6-run 4th, and his 3-run double fueled a five-spot in the 7th that gave the Phils their biggest output since Opening Day.

• Hamels is the 5th modern Phillie with 100 wins by seasonal age 30, and the first since Chris Short made it in 1968.

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Tigers 6, @Red Sox 1 — Rick Porcello put his 5-start win streak on the line against the team that’s hit him hardest. He kept Boston off the board until the 5th, when Xander Bogaerts homered, then set down his last 11 batters, completing 8 innings for the first time this year. Miguel Cabrera’s 7th homer and 3 hits raised his average over .300 for the first time since the opening week, and gave him 37 RBI in 38 games.

• In 6 prior Sawx encounters (including one postseason relief stint), Porcello had been nicked no later than his second inning.
• Porcello’s started eight games. He lost when Andrew Cashner blanked Detroit on one hit, and won the other seven.
• Oh, that Pesky Cabrera!
• Can’t think when I’ve seen this, maybe not since Rickey’s prime: Four straight pickoff tries at second base, on Rajai Davis. The fourth toss went astray, Davis went to third, and Ian Kinsler scored him with a sac fly.
• Two straight games Detroit’s allowed one run or less in Fenway. One other time in the last 60 year, starting with a Jack Morris 4-hitter.
• Three prior Tigers clubs began as well as 26-12: one Ty Cobb squad (29-9, 1911), a Kaline/Cash (27-11 in ’61), and the long-awaited Morris/Trammaker breakthrough (33-5 in ’84). Those produced one World Series win and two runners-up, the worst of which equates to 94 wins in a modern schedule.
• Last offseason, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski bet on Porcello over Doug Fister, and Ian Kinsler over Prince Fielder. Time will tell — but time has taught us not to bet against Dombrowski.

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Padres 8, @Rockies 5 — Two-run homers by ex-Rockie Seth Smith and pinch-hitter Carlos Quentin offset Troy Tulowitzki’s 8th three-hit home game in just 17 chances, as the Pads won their sixth of the last eight and topped 6 runs for the third time in that span and in this year.

• Huston Street, another ex-Rockie, locked up his 13th straight save, and has allowed one run in 18 IP this year. He’s 69 for 72 in Padres save tries (96%).

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@Angels 6, Rays 0 — C.J. Wilson went the distance for the first time as an Angel, and tied for the AL lead with 62.2 innings. Collin Cowgill reached three times at the top of the lineup and scored twice, raising his OBP to .413, and the Angels regained the AL’s #3 record at 23-19.

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Blue Jays 4, @Rangers 2 — Eighth-inning doubles by Kevin Pillar and Jose Reyes broke the final tie and led Toronto to their 10th win in 14 games, deepening the Rangers’ funk to 5-14.

Seeking his 8th win, Mark Buehrle took a 2-1 lead into the stretch frame, courtesy of Anthony Gose, who doubled, stole third and scored on a groundout in the top half. But three straight two-out singles tied it up again, the last against reliever Aaron Loup. Jose Bautista’s 11th homer gave Buehrle a lead before he took the hill, but Texas cashed his only walk with two following singles to tie it in the 3rd. Reyes tried to break that in the 5th, but Leonys Martin has a laser-sighted cannon.

• Just the second time one team’s held Texas to all singles in consecutive games at Rangers Ballpark.
• Casey Janssen earned his 3rd save this week, after missing the first six weeks.

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Oakland 6, @Cleveland 2 — “Bad credit? No credit? Starter thrown out early, for bad body language? No problem!” Dan Otero stepped in for Scott Kazmir and worked 3.2 scoreless innings for the win, leading the A’s to a season-high 11 games above .500. Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss wiped out Cleveland’s early lead with long drives, divvying up the Oakland ribbies to end with 34 and 36 RBI, respectively.

• Otero was waived twice last spring before landing with the A’s at age 28 with 12 big-league innings on his chart. He’s gone 6-0 with a 1.53 in 52 games for Oakland, allowing just one HR in 64 IP.

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Marlins 5, @Giants 0 — Don’t tell Tom Koehler or Giancarlo Stanton that their playoff hopes are doomed without Jose Fernandez. It might be true, I don’t know; but it seems rude to say so. And I’d never be rude to Giancarlo.

• Who has four scoreless starts of 7+ IP this year? Adam Wainwright, and Tom Koehler, who’s now 8th in NL ERA at 2.25.
• Giancarlo’s played every game this year, good news after missing 85 in the last two seasons.

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@Twins 4, Mariners 3 — Brian Dozier jacked up a curve from Roenis Elias, plating three with his 11th homer to negate Seattle’s edge and lead his club back over .500.

• Dozier (40 runs) has scored at least one in 28 of Minnesota’s first 41 games, tied for the most by a second baseman since 1930. Only Fresco Thompson had more in the searchable era, 29 in 1929; he had 43 runs through 41 games, but finished with a mere 115.
• Kurt Suzuki started at cleanup for the first time since 2010, and doubled home Minny’s first run. In 61 career starts batting 4th, Suzuki has 52 RBI

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@Yankees 7, Pirates 1 — Fill-in starter David Phelps gave New York just enough length for his first win, and all the runs came on homers — including five different Yankees, all to right or right-center, most of them short-porch specials like Teixeira’s wall-scraper. That’s not a knock: Most parks have particular characteristics, and the teams that use theirs best, do well. The Yanks have hit 30 HRs in 20 home games, 13 HRs in 21 road games. But they’re only 10-10 at home, partly from yielding 26 home runs there. The porch plays no favorites.

• Pittsburgh ran themselves out of the 4th inning, down 3-0. Starling Marte ran on an 0-2 pitch, but Ike Davis took strike three and Brian McCann threw out Marte, just the second time he’s been caught in 13 tries. Gaby Sanchez doubled and tried to score on Jordy Mercer’s hard single to right, but Alfonso Soriano cut him down easily.
• Zoilo is back! And that’s no Bronx cheapie.
• Teix has 9 HRs in his last 20 games.
• First time five Yanks have homered in the new park since their second game there.

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@Cubs 3, Brewers 0 — Three two-out runs in the home 1st against “Pitch Your Way Off the Cubs” expert Matt Garza, and seven commanding stanzas by Edwin Jackson, snapped Chicago’s latest losing streak at three games, their sixth of that duration. The Crew’s depleted lineup was no match for Jackson, whose 40th Cubs start was his second scoreless effort and first with double-digit Ks. The scoring frame started with the first bunt hit this year by Emilio Bonifacio, who ranked 3rd in that feat over the last five seasons. With two outs, Garza began to fall behind: 2-and-0 double by Starlin Castro, four-pitch walk to Nate Schierholtz (hitting .197 with no homers), and a 1-0, 2-run double by Welington Castillo. The Cubs were spent, collecting just one hit thereafter, but no matter: Jackson and the bullpen combined to retire 18 of the last 19 Brewers.

• Chicago’s 3rd shutout this year, second in the last three meets with their northern neighbors.
• Cubs closer Hector Rondon has pitched quite well, but has just 4 saves. Eight of 14 Cubs wins were by 4 runs or more, and just three by 2 runs or less.

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Mets 5, @Nationals 2 — New York got back to their signature style with three 1st-inning runs, two brought home by a rookie who hasn’t learned to sweat those bags-full chances. Juan Lagares escaped his unexplained doghouse and accounted for 4 runs (three put up, one taken down), and Bartolo Colon lasted 8 innings for the first time this year.

• Back at ya, Jayson.
• I don’t know how Eric Singleton Campbell came by his middle name. But if it was a nod to Ken, Eric has honored that by compiling a .380 OBP in the minors — .437 at triple-A, with more walks than whiffs (like Ken’s MLB totals).
• Four scoreless innings by Craig Stammen, relieving in the 4th when New York led 5-0. How did he fall to mop-up duty? In 2012-13 combined, Stammen led all pure relievers with 170 innings, compiling a solid 2.54 ERA and 152 ERA+, and 17 holds. This year, while pitching at least as well, he’s worked mostly in lost causes — no holds, no saves. One bad game saw 5 of the 8 runs he’s allowed in 25 IP, and it was already 6-0 when he entered. But Washington has a deep bullpen, so maybe this is their best use for Stammen.

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@Astros 6, White Sox 5 — Jason Castro’s 3-run homer capped Houston’s four-man/four-run opening salvo, and Jarred Cosart got the outs he needed most to slip through 5 innings and square his record at 3-3. Cosart started a DP to end the 1st. He walked three in the 2nd, and gave up two sac flies, but George Springer made the second one a DP by gunning Alejandro De Aza at third. With his lead down to a run, Cosart caught Gordon Beckham looking to end the 4th with two aboard, and Alexei Ramirez flied out to end a similar threat in the 5th. Dexter Fowler built the lead back up with a solo shot and ribby single, enough to offset Kyle Farnsworth’s deuce of a debut (2 outs, 2 hits, 2 walks, 2 runs).

• Lefty Tony Sipp got three outs to stay perfect through 20 batters this year, with 11 Ks.
• When Hector Noesi started off by yielding single-triple-walk-home run, I had visions of Dennis Ribant’s max-efficient “full cycle” start in 1966: walk, double, homer, single, triple, yanked — the only searchable start with those five events in just five batters faced. Noesi lasted through the 5th, but never did give up the double.

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More on Friday, etc., etc.

Detroit’s 1-0 win in Boston was their third game since last September wherein the lone run came in the top of the 1st. They beat the Twins that way on Sept. 25 — also a Scherzer win, with Torii Hunter RBI, and the division clincher, too — and fell to the Royals on Sept. 14. The latter date had another such game, Bartolo Colon’s duel with Yu Darvish (who’d also lost 1-0 his prior start).

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If Daniel Murphy’s deep drive had beaten Jayson Werth over the RF wall Friday, it would have been this year’s second last-ditch, game-tying 3-run homer. Mets fans know where this is going….

It also would have been the second such event ever for the Mets. The other was in 2004, Victor Diaz off LaTroy Hawkins. They won that game in the 11th, on the first and last home run ever hit by Craig Brazell.

There’s one game-tying granny when the Mets were one out away from expiration: 1997, Carl Everett against Ugueth Urbina, won in the 11th on Bernard Gilkey’s pinch-hit walk-off blast.

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Random stat: In tie games last year and this, Aroldis Chapman has struck out 34 of 53 batters and walked just 4, allowing 3 hits in 49 at-bats — but all three hits were home runs.

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Let not our run-support tears be shed only for Jeff Samardzija. The worst support while in the game belongs to Friday loser Eric Stults, 1.4 runs per 27 outs while he was in the ballgame. His teammates Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner and Robbie Erlin rank 4th, 10th and 17th in that measure, among 139 qualified pitchers in both leagues.

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Arizona’s 4-18 home record through Friday includes 5 shutout losses. They lost nine home shutouts in 1998, their first season, and six in 2003; no more than four in other years.

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Wins leaders for 2013-14 combined: Scherzer 27-4, Wainwright 25-11, Greinke 22-5, De La Rosa 21-9, Wilson 21-10, Zimmermann 21-10.

Tigers with 50+ career wins and wins in at least half their games: Wild Bill Donovan, 140/261, .536; Verlander, 142/275, .516; McLain, 117/227, .515; Scherzer, 70/137, .511. Scherzer’s Detroit record is 70-31; his .693 W% would be their best ever for 50+ wins.

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The expectation grows that Jeff Samardzija will be dealt before the deadline. I’d be wary. Since joining the rotation in 2012, Samardzija has a 106 ERA+. This year’s hot start comes with ordinary strikeout and walk rates, both right near the median for qualifiers. His strong hits rate comes with a line-drive rate that’s slightly higher than his last two years; and his extreme home-run prevention (2 HRs in 61 IP) sits on a HR/FB ratio that’s less than one-third his 2012-13 rate. AL teams should note his 4.75 ERA in eight interleague starts. That’s not to say he wouldn’t help a contender. But Buster Olney notes the expected cost of landing Samardzija, since “there might be only one comparable pitcher in the market this summer — David Price.” Any GM who thinks those two are comparable will likely get a rude awakening.

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A quick look at good veteran starting pitchers:

There are 81 active pitchers (meaning they’ve pitched this year) with at least 120 career starts, or about four years of rotation service. Of the top 30 as ranked by FIP, 14 are currently clustered on four teams, while half the teams have none of the top 30:

• 4 — Dodgers — #1 Clayton Kershaw, #8 Zack Greinke, #21 Dan Haren, #28 Josh Beckett
• 4 — Giants — #3 Madison Bumgarner, #5 Tim Lincecum, #25 Matt Cain, #27 Tim Hudson
• 3 — Tigers — #7 Justin Verlander, #11 Max Scherzer, #13 Anibal Sanchez
• 3 — Nationals — #10 Jordan Zimmermann, #12 Doug Fister, #20 Gio Gonzalez
• 2 — Rays — #6 David Price, #30 Erik Bedard
• 2 — Phillies — #9 Cliff Lee, #14 Cole Hamels
• 2 — Yankees — #15 CC Sabathia, #18 Hiroki Kuroda
• 2 — Red Sox — #16 Jake Peavy, #19 Jon Lester
• 2 — Angels — #23 Jered Weaver, #26 C.J. Wilson
• 1 — Cardinals — #2 Adam Wainwright
• 1 — Mariners — #4 Felix Hernandez
• 1 — Pirates — #17 Francisco Liriano
• 1 — Brewers — #22 Yovani Gallardo
• 1 — Mets — #24 Jon Niese
• 1 — Royals — #29 James Shields

So, what about 2014 performance? Those top 30 veterans have done fairly well as a group, averaging a 3.35 FIP and 125 ERA+ in just under 8 starts. They also have an average salary of $14 million this year, with many bigger numbers coming soon: Kershaw’s pay jumps from $4 mil to $30 mil next year, Verlander and Zimmermann both get raises of $8 million-plus, and Scherzer expects a bigger jump than that when he goes on the market. But the teams holding the most such pitchers have not dominated the results thus far.

The top six teams as ranked by ERA+ have just five of those 30: Detroit (3), Atlanta (none), Oakland (none), Kansas City (1), Milwaukee (1) and San Diego (none). The Dodgers and Giants, each with four of the top 30, currently rank 12th and 16th in ERA+, 13th and 12th by F.I.P. The Nationals have three of the top 30, but are 9th in ERA+, just behind the Reds (none).

Bullpens play a role in those numbers, so let’s focus on the starters. The top four teams in Quality Start Percentage are Milwaukee, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Oakland, with just one of those top 30 veterans among them. The top four in runs allowed per game by starters have none of those 30 (Atlanta, Oakland, Cincinnati, San Diego).

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