Quiz – Speed to Burn (solved)

34 Replies

This quiz identifies the only players with a season since 1961 achieving a particular offensive feat. What is this unusual achievement?

Rk	Player
1	Maury Wills
2	Tom Goodwin
3	Darren Lewis
4	Brett Butler
5	Eric Yelding
6	Gerald Young
7	Steve Sax
8	Rickey Henderson
9	Bill North
10	Sandy Alomar

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/19/2014.

Congratulations to Dan Mallon! He correctly identified that these are the only players having a qualifying season since 1961 with more times caught stealing than extra-base hits, “burning” their own teams with their speed and lack of offensive punch. Those seasons are after the jump.

Rk	Player	Year	CS	XBH	Age	Tm	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Tom Goodwin	1998	20	18	29	TEX	154	608	102	151	13	3	2	33	73	90	38	.290	.378	.338	.716	*8H/D
2	Tom Goodwin	1996	22	19	27	KCR	143	587	80	148	14	4	1	35	39	79	66	.282	.334	.330	.664	87H/D
3	Darren Lewis	1995	18	17	27	TOT	132	527	66	118	13	3	1	24	34	57	32	.250	.311	.297	.607	*8/H
4	Brett Butler	1991	28	20	34	LAD	161	730	112	182	13	5	2	38	108	79	38	.296	.401	.343	.744	*8/H
5	Eric Yelding	1990	25	15	25	HOU	142	559	69	130	9	5	1	28	39	87	64	.254	.305	.297	.602	*86H74/95
6	Gerald Young	1989	25	20	24	HOU	146	620	71	124	17	3	0	38	74	60	34	.233	.326	.276	.602	*8/H
7	Steve Sax	1983	30	28	23	LAD	155	692	94	175	18	5	5	41	58	73	56	.281	.342	.350	.692	*4/H
8	Rickey Henderson	1982	42	38	23	OAK	149	656	119	143	24	4	10	51	116	94	130	.267	.398	.382	.780	*78/HD
9	Bill North	1976	29	27	28	OAK	154	675	91	163	20	5	2	31	73	95	75	.276	.356	.337	.693	*8/D9H
10	Sandy Alomar	1973	10	8	29	CAL	136	519	45	112	7	1	0	28	34	44	25	.238	.288	.257	.545	*46/H
11	Maury Wills	1968	21	18	35	PIT	153	685	76	174	12	6	0	31	45	57	52	.278	.326	.316	.642	*5/6H
12	Maury Wills	1966	24	17	33	LAD	143	643	60	162	14	2	1	39	34	60	38	.273	.314	.308	.622	*6/5H
13	Maury Wills	1965	31	21	32	LAD	158	711	92	186	14	7	0	33	40	64	94	.286	.330	.329	.660	*6/H

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/20/2014.

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Dan Mallon

10 years ago

More times CS than Extra base hits

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Dan Mallon

Zing – Well done, Dan.

mosc

10 years ago

If you correlate caught stealing and WAR, Henderson’s 1982 has to stick out like a sore thumb. Nearly twice Lou Brock’s 1974 masterpiece (which barely misses your list)

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to mosc

Most stolen bases in a season since 1961 with WAR > 2 x CS. Rk Player SB WAR/pos CS Year Age Tm G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG 1 Mike Trout 49 10.9 5 2012 20 LAA 139 639 129 182 27 8 30 83 67 139 .326 .399 .564 2 Ichiro Suzuki 45 5.3 2 2006 32 SEA 161 752 110 224 20 9 9 49 49 71 .322 .370 .416 3 Carlos Beltran 42 6.7 3 2004 27 TOT 159 708 121 160 36 9 38 104 92 101 .267 .367… Read more »

mosc

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

Not quite how I meant it. Was saying somebody making outs on the basepaths typically hurts their value. Somebody who’s making such high value with so many basepath outs seems rare. Then again, they wouldn’t get the chance to make so many basepath outs if they weren’t getting on base pretty well on their own.

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

So more like this. Most times caught stealing in a 5+ WAR season. Rk Player CS WAR/pos Year Tm G PA R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG 1 Rickey Henderson 42 6.7 1982 OAK 149 656 119 143 10 51 116 130 .267 .398 .382 2 Maury Wills 31 5.2 1965 LAD 158 711 92 186 0 33 40 94 .286 .330 .329 3 Brett Butler 28 5.1 1991 LAD 161 730 112 182 2 38 108 38 .296 .401 .343 4 Lonnie Smith 26 6.1 1982 STL 156 672 120 182 8 69 64 68 .307… Read more »

Michael Sullivan

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

I can’t figure out how to do it with the play index, but I was thinking something like looking at something like WAR*CS. One of the interesting things about looking at Rickey’s rBase numbers, is that the seasons in which he added the most value on the bases were not his highest steal seasons. 1985 and 1988 were his best, and he stole 80 and 93 bases respectively. But those years, he had few CS, and probably a lot of taking the extra base.

Richard Chester

10 years ago

Reply to Michael Sullivan

@12, Michael: I don’t know how you are going to interpret this data but using Fangraph data and Excel spreadsheets I generated a list for WAR*CS. It is for qualifying batters from 1901 to 2013. There have been 12139 such batters and CS data is unavailable for 2544 of them, almost all before 1951. Here are the top 10 by name, WAR*CS and year. Ty Cobb, 372, 1915 Babe Ruth, 315, 1923 Eddie Collins, 249, 1915 Tris Speaker, 270, 1914 Eddie Collins, 249, 1914 Rickey Henderson, 244, 1982 Tris Speaker, 216, 1916 Rickey Henderson, 203, 1980 Ty Cobb, 187, 1916… Read more »

mosc

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

The one that jumps out to me there is Brett Butler going 38 and 28 in steal attempts and STILL managing a positive RBASE. Positive everything for that matter.

Can you imagine if Butler had power? Even a little bit? Historic.

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

@5/Doug,

I know you stated ‘since 1961’, but in 1922 Max Carey stole 51 bases, with just 2 CS, and had a WAR of 5.1, 5th in the NL.

Hank Aaron just missed your list in 1963, with 31 SB (2nd), 5 CS, and a WAR of 9.1 (2nd). This may be more impressive than anyone on your list except for Trout.

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

The AL has kept caught stealing data since 1920 (and intermittently before that) but the NL did so only in 1913, 1915, 1920-25 and since 1951.

The last players before 1961 (that we know of) with more CS than XBH in a qualifying season were Donie Bush (13/12) and Larry Kopf (14/12) in 1921.

Brendan Bingham

10 years ago

Wills on the list three times! I see from his career record that seven times he led the league in getting caught stealing but only six times in stolen bases.

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Brendan Bingham

In 14 seasons, Wills success rates stealing were:
– 8 times above 70%
– 4 times above 75%
– 2 times above 80%

By today’s standards, those rates are pretty bad. But, in a low offensive environment, perhaps acceptable based on the notion that if the runner doesn’t get into scoring position, the likelihood of him scoring is fairly remote. Ergo, if he’s thrown out, no real harm done since he wasn’t likely to score if he stayed on first.

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Brendan Bingham

@4/BB, Bill James had a comment about that ages ago – up till the late 50s, for quite a while almost nobody stole bases with any frequency, so catchers weren’t selected for their ability to control that. By the mid-60s they’d adjusted somewhat to handling Wills, but Wills hadn’t adjusted _his_ approach, so his SB% went down. Or maybe no one was paying as much attention to the ‘CS’ column as they should have… Despite the negative comments on Wills, he was in the Top-10 in SB% 8 times, and had 55 career baserunning runs, so he must’ve been doing… Read more »

Brendan Bingham

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

I meant no slight to Wills’ value as a player. Leading the league in a negative counting stat (such as batter strike outs or pitcher losses) is often associated with player value. For example, if you came to the plate enough times to lead the league in strike outs, it means your manager did not see fit to take you out of the lineup. Leading the league in caught stealing is evidence that you got on base (a good thing) and evidence of aggressive base running (also a good thing, within reason). Moreover, it shows that the manager is on… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

10 years ago

130 steals and 116 walks equals more than 38 XBH.

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Looking at that 1982 season, seems that Rickey may have been trying too hard to force the issue, especially early. – almost one-third of his SB (41 of 130) came in the 1st inning, and more than one-half came in innings 1-3 – but, his success rate was barely 2 out of 3 in the 1st inning, and barely 70% for innings 1-3 (versus 75% overall) – with 2 outs, he was 9 for 12 in steals of 3rd or home. Maybe just an okay play at 75%, but obviously never a good play making the last out stealing when… Read more »

Michael Sullivan

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

The second to last bullet here I disagree with. With 2 outs, stealing home at an 80% rate is huge, assuming you only need the one run. You can’t make it home on a sacrifice, so the batter has to get on base for you to score, plus unless the bases are loaded a walk doesn’t score. So you are probably only about 30-35% to score at best (depending on batter, pitcher and defense) if you don’t force the issue. Even from second, if you are stealing at an 80% clip from third or home, and will have an opportunity… Read more »

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Michael Sullivan

Good points about stealing home with two outs. For 1982, Rickey’s two out steal results were: – 0 for 1 stealing home as only runner on base – 7 for 7 stealing 3rd as only runner on base – 2 for 4 with runners on 1st and 2nd (probably most or all of those would be Rickey trying to steal 3rd) – 8 for 9 with runners on 1st and 3rd (probably most of all of these would be Rickey trying to steal 2nd) So, assuming all the 1st and 2nd with two out were with Rickey on 2nd and… Read more »

mosc

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

Those sampling sizes are just absurdly crazy. Man, Henderson was a machine!

Editor

John Autin

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

FIWI, I’d guess that Rickey’s 88 for 100 stealing 3rd with 2 outs was a net neutral to his teams. Tango’s Run Expectancy Matrix for 1969-92 pegs the 2-out value of a man on 2nd (only) at .325 runs, and .373 for a man on 3rd only. Multiply that net gain of .048 runs per successful SB by Rickey’s 88 successes, that’s +4.22 runs. The cost per CS in that situation is -.325 runs. Multiply by 12, that’s -3.90 runs. The value of Rickey on 2nd with 2 outs is surely greater than the average runner, since he scored from… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

@6/VZ,

I know that you can’t put a number on it, but you should also factor in that in attempting to steal 172 times (as Rickey did in ’82), you are going to put a great deal of wear and tear on your body, especially later in the season.

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Indeed.

Rickey was .211/.336/.232 in August and .224/.308/.397 in Sep/Oct. But still running hard, Despite having just 20 hits and 18 walks in August, Henderson still attempted 32 steals and was successful 24 times, right on his season success rate.

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

@18/Doug, That’s amazing – Henderson was trying to steal literally almost _every_ chance he got. he reached base 40 times (20 H + 18 BB + 2 ROE), and had 32 steal attempts – a 75% attempt ratio!! I wondered if anyone would come close, but since I don’t know how to work the B-R P-I for that, I just looked up Vince Coleman in 1986 (highest ratio of SBA to TOB). The results of June 1986: 28 SBA (25 SB, 3 CS) vs. 34 times reached base (21 H, 11 BB, 1 HBP, 1 ROE), a ratio of 82.3%… Read more »

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

27 of those 40 times reaching base were with the bases empty. Of the remainder, there were only 4 times that the base ahead of Henderson was open (twice it was 2nd base, and twice 3rd base) after he got on. So he actually attempted to steal *more* than every time he got on and had a free base ahead of him.

Richard Chester

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

LA: Here’s how to use the PI. Go to Split Finder Player Batting, Find Individual Seasons, Choose a Split Type Months, Select a Month, Sort by SB, Choose a Stat TOB with ROE equal to or greater than 1 and run the report. By visually scanning you can find the highest ratio especially by scanning the TOBwe column. I did it for every month and it looks like that 82.3% is the record. Missing are times the player was forced out, the times when the batter forced someone else out and the times the batter was out trying to stretch… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

@26/RC, Wow – vindication! Thanks. Though if I’m Totally Honest here, I must acknowledge that there have never been two players who attempted to steal as frequently as Coleman and Henderson. Coleman got on base considerably less often, so it was easy to make an educated guess. I tried to compare to the top SBA season of the DBE – Ty Cobb/1915. However data is incomplete – no CS on monthly breakdowns, or any ROE at all. So, for the season: COBB: 134 SBAs/330 TOB (208 hits + 118 BB + 10 HBP – 13 3Bs – 3 HRs) =… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

I have a hard time accepting raw success percentage totals as an end-all of whether a base stealer was valuable in his efforts. When someone who is a constant threat is on base, it puts a pressure on the defense and the pitcher that doesn’t show up in his own numbers. I theorize that the OPS of batters who hit while Rickey was on base was higher than their average. No idea how to search for that. But I probably watched 150 Yankees games a year from 85-89, and me and Phil Rizzuto say that Rickey’s intangible value was higher… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

10 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo, I think you’re counting all the “disruption” benefits for the hitter and not the negatives, like taking pitches to give Rickey a chance to steal. I can’t think of a way to isolate any team’s hitting with a base-thief aboard in a steal opportunity. But consider this: Base thieves are still concentrated in the leadoff spot. (26% of all SB attempts last year were by #1 hitters.) Whatever disruption those guys create should be felt most by the #2 hitters. (1) I looked at the guys who batted #2 some of the time, but not all of the time.… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

10 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Duh … I should’ve just run the #2 splits for Yankees 1985-89: — Batting 2nd with bases empty: .291 BA, .780 OPS. — Batting 2nd with any on and a stealable base open: .299 BA, .795 OPS (counting sac flies as ABs) So, yeah … but it’s generally true that BA and OPS go up even with a slow man on base. The most non-stealing team in live-ball history was the 1957 Senators, with 13 steals all year. From 1954-58, they averaged just 27 SB. With bases empty, they hit .240/.672. With any on, .249/.690 (counting sac flies as ABs).… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

10 years ago

Reply to John Autin

A’s #2 splits for 1980-84 (Rickey’s first term): — Bases empty: .252 BA, .394 SLG, .723 OPS. — Any on with a stealable base open: .290 BA, .440 SLG, .811 OPS. — 1st occupied and 2nd base open: .315 BA, .477 SLG, .848 OPS. That tends to support Voomo’s case. But we don’t know how much of that gain was from the threat of a steal (or specifically a Rickey steal), and how much from having the first baseman holding. Note that 80% of their #2 PAs were by lefty batters. Unfortunately, the Event Finder bombs out seeking splits for… Read more »

mosc

10 years ago

Reply to John Autin

We also witnessed countless throwing errors from pitchers trying to catch him off first. Ricky would take all the lead he could get away with and needed constant attention. I can remember at least one error from a catcher overshooting his first basemen trying to fire back after the pitch too.

Editor

John Autin

10 years ago

Reply to John Autin

One last split on this topic: For A’s LHBs 1980-84, comparing those batting #2-4 and those batting #5-9. The latter group cannot bat with their #1 hitter on 1st base. Batting #2-4: — Bases empty: .245 BA, .403 SLG, .729 OPS. — 1st occupied and 2nd base open: .295 BA, .453 SLG, .805 OPS. — Net gain: .050 in BA, .076 in OPS. Batting #5-9: — Bases empty: .222 BA, .389 SLG, .618 OPS. — 1st occupied and 2nd base open: .291 BA, .412 SLG, .748 OPS. — Net gain: .069 in BA, .130 in OPS. #5-9 had a larger… Read more »

Artie Z.

10 years ago

Tom Goodwin had 118 CS and 188 XBH, so a ratio of over 0.6 CS/XBH. There are 10 players who have had (CS/XBH) greater than 0.6 in 800+ career games (with the caveat that CS were not always recorded, so the list doesn’t go all the way back to the beginning of baseball – there might be some deadballers on this list if we had complete CS data for them). But there’s only one player, who does not appear on any of these lists, to have CS greater than XBH for his career in 800+ games. Otis Nixon had 186… Read more »